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At least 469 records · Page 26

The Opportunity in Commercial Approaches for Future NASA Deep Space Exploration Elements

This work joins two events, showing the potential for commercial, public private partnerships, modeled on programs like COTS, to reduce the cost to NASA significantly for other required deep space exploration capabilities. These other capabilities include landers, stages and more. We mature the concept of costed baseball cards, adding cost estimates to NASAs space systems baseball cards.

cost modeling estimation↗

Rapid Cost Assessment of Space Mission Concepts Through Application of Complexity-Based Cost Indices

This slide presentation reviews the development of a rapid cost assessment models for evaluation of exploration missions through the application of complexity based cost indices. In Fall of 2004, NASA began developing 13 documents, known as "strategic roadmaps," intended to outline a strategy for space exploration over the next 30 years. The Third Strategic Roadmap, The Strategic Roadmap for Solar System Exploration, focused on strategy for robotic exploration of the Solar System. Development of the Strategic Roadmap for Solar System Exploration led to the investigation of a large variety of missions. However, the necessity of planning around scientific inquiry and budgetary constraints made it necessary for the roadmap development team to evaluate potential missions not only for scientific return but also cost. Performing detailed cost studies for each of the large number of missions was impractical given the time constraints involved and lack of detailed mission studies; so a method of rapid cost assessment was developed by us to allow preliminary analysis. It has been noted that there is a strong correlation between complexity and cost and schedule of planetary missions. While these correlations were made after missions had been built and flown (successfully or otherwise), it seemed likely that a similar approach could provide at least some relative cost ranking. Cost estimation relationships (CERs) have been developed based on subsystem design choices. These CERs required more detailed information than available, forcing the team to adopt a more high level approach. Costing by analogy has been developed for small satellites, however, planetary exploration missions provide such varying spacecraft requirements that there is a lack of adequately comparable missions that can be used for analogy.

cost estimation↗

Rapid Turnaround of Costing/Designing of Space Missions Operations

The Ground Segment Team (GST), at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, provides high-level mission operations concepts and cost estimates for projects that are in the formulation phase. GST has developed a tool to track costs, assumptions, and mission requirements, and to rapidly turnaround estimates for mission operations, ground data systems, and tracking for deep space and near Earth missions. Estimates that would often take several weeks to generate are now generated in minutes through the use of an integrated suite of cost models. The models were developed through interviews with domain experts in areas of Mission Operations, including but not limited to: systems engineering, payload operations, tracking resources, mission planning, navigation, telemetry and command, and ground network infrastructure. Data collected during interviews were converted into parametric cost models and integrated into one tool suite. The tool has been used on a wide range of missions from small Earth orbiters, to flagship missions like Cassini. The tool is an aid to project managers and mission planners as they consider different scenarios during the proposal and early development stages of their missions. The tool is also used for gathering cost related requirements and assumptions and for conducting integrated analysis of multiple missions.

Cost estimation↗

National Modeling of Geothermal District Energy Systems with Ambient-Temperature Loops Using dGeo: Preprint

Geothermal district energy systems (DES) with ambient-temperature loops, also known as thermal energy networks, are one option for decarbonizing space heating and cooling loads. Geothermal fifth-generation DES include an "ambient" temperature thermal loop that connects heat pumps at each building with thermal balancing sources such as geothermal borehole fields. Heating and cooling are provided via a water-source heat pump at each end-user. This project seeks to analyze the nationwide potential for ambient-temperature loop districts by creating a new module within the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo). dGeo is an agent-based modeling tool for distributed geothermal resources; it can investigate potential on a nationwide or statewide scale using geospatial data for all 50 states and thermal demands for existing buildings. This process allows for high-level estimates of technical and economic potential for ambient-temperature loop districts across the United States. Using GHEDesigner, a lookup table was created to size borehole fields for different thermal loads and ground conditions experienced across the country. A cost and financing structure, along with incentives, were applied. Cost estimates include costs for the distribution network, borehole field installation and operation, and circulation pump operation, while savings are calculated based on agent energy bills. This newly developed module can be used for assessing which areas of the country have the highest potential for agent benefits from ambient-temperature loop installation and assess the impact of different costing and pricing future scenarios. While the code is still under development and nationwide simulations are ongoing, initial results for two states are provided. Future work includes expanding the module to consider mixed residential and commercial districts and considering multiple costing scenarios.

ambient temperature loop↗

National Modeling of Geothermal District Energy Systems with Ambient-Temperature Loops Using dGeo

Geothermal district energy systems (DES) with ambient-temperature loops, also known as thermal energy networks, are one option for decarbonizing space heating and cooling loads. Geothermal fifth-generation DES include an "ambient" temperature thermal loop that connects heat pumps at each building with thermal balancing sources such as geothermal borehole fields. Heating and cooling are provided via a water-source heat pump at each end-user. This project seeks to analyze the nationwide potential for ambient-temperature loop districts by creating a new module within the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo). dGeo is an agent-based modeling tool for distributed geothermal resources; it can investigate potential on a nationwide or statewide scale using geospatial data for all 50 states and thermal demands for existing buildings. This process allows for high-level estimates of technical and economic potential for ambient-temperature loop districts across the United States. A lookup table was created using GHEDesigner to size borehole fields for different thermal loads and ground conditions experienced across the country. A cost and financing structure, along with incentives, were applied. Cost estimates include costs for the distribution network, borehole field installation and operation, and circulation pump operation, while savings are calculated based on energy bills for building owners (agents). This newly developed module can be used for assessing which areas of the country have the highest potential for agent benefits from ambient-temperature loop installation and assess the impact of future cost and price scenarios. Initial results for statewide analysis (for Vermont) and nationwide (for United States) are provided. Future work includes expanding the module to consider mixed residential and commercial districts as well as evaluating multiple cost scenarios.

ambient-temperature loop↗

Cost-Benefit Analysis for the Advanced Near Net Shape Technology (ANNST) Method for Fabricating Stiffened Cylinders

Low Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) and high levels of uncertainty make it challenging to develop cost estimates of new technologies in the R&D phase. It is however essential for NASA to understand the costs and benefits associated with novel concepts, in order to prioritize research investments and evaluate the potential for technology transfer and commercialization. This paper proposes a framework to perform a cost-benefit analysis of a technology in the R&D phase. This framework was developed and used to assess the Advanced Near Net Shape Technology (ANNST) manufacturing process for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders. The ANNST method was compared with the conventional multi-piece metallic construction and composite processes for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders. Following the definition of a case study for a cryogenic tank cylinder of specified geometry, data was gathered through interviews with Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), with particular focus placed on production costs and process complexity. This data served as the basis to produce process flowcharts and timelines, mass estimates, and rough order-of-magnitude cost and schedule estimates. The scalability of the results was subsequently investigated to understand the variability of the results based on tank size. Lastly, once costs and benefits were identified, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to assess the relative value of these achieved benefits for potential stakeholders. These preliminary, rough order-of-magnitude results predict a 46 to 58 percent reduction in production costs and a 7-percent reduction in weight over the conventional metallic manufacturing technique used in this study for comparison. Compared to the composite manufacturing technique, these results predict cost savings of 35 to 58 percent; however, the ANNST concept was heavier. In this study, the predicted return on investment of equipment required for the ANNST method was ten cryogenic tank barrels when compared with conventional metallic manufacturing. The AHP study results revealed that decreased final cylinder mass and improved quality assurance were the most valued benefits of cylinder manufacturing methods, therefore emphasizing the relevance of the benefits achieved with the ANNST process for future projects.

Ivanco, Marie L.↗

Systems design study of the Pioneer Venus spacecraft. Appendices to volume 1, sections 8-11 (part 3 of 3)

Power subsystem cost/weight tradeoffs are discussed for the Venus probe spacecraft. The cost estimations of power subsystem units were based upon DSCS-2, DSP, and Pioneer 10 and 11 hardware design and development and manufacturing experience. Parts count and degree of modification of existing hardware were factored into the estimate of manufacturing and design and development costs. Cost data includes sufficient quantities of units to equip probe bus and orbiter versions. It was based on the orbiter complement of equipment, but the savings in fewer slices for the probe bus balance the cost of the different probe bus battery. The preferred systems for the Thor/Delta and for the Atlas/Centaur are discussed. The weights of the candidate designs were based upon slice or tray weights for functionally equivalent circuitry measured on existing hardware such as Pioneers 10 and 11, Intelsat 3, DSCS-2, or DSP programs. Battery weights were based on measured cell weight data adjusted for case weight or off-the-shelf battery weights. The solar array weight estimate was based upon recent hardware experience on DSCS-2 and DSP arrays.

Source record↗

Magnetohydrodynamics MHD Engineering Test Facility ETF 200 MWe power plant. Conceptual Design Engineering Report CDER. Volume 3: Costs and schedules

The estimated plant capital cost for a coal fired 200 MWE electric generating plant with open cycle magnetohydrodynamics is divided into principal accounts based on Federal Energy Regulatory Commision account structure. Each principal account is defined and its estimated cost subdivided into identifiable and major equipment systems. The cost data sources for compiling the estimates, cost parameters, allotments, assumptions, and contingencies, are discussed. Uncertainties associated with developing the costs are quantified to show the confidence level acquired. Guidelines established in preparing the estimated costs are included. Based on an overall milestone schedule related to conventional power plant scheduling experience and starting procurement of MHD components during the preliminary design phase there is a 6 1/2-year construction period. The duration of the project from start to commercial operation is 79 months. The engineering phase of the project is 4 1/2 years; the construction duration following the start of the man power block is 37 months.

Source record↗

Techno-economic Model and Analysis for Hydrogen (H2) Pipeline Transportation

Presentation at the 9th ELAEE (Latin American Energy Economics Meeting) July 28th – 30th, 2024 in PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The presentation highlights the FECM/NETL Hydrogen Pipeline Cost Model (H2_P_COM). The model estimates costs for transporting gaseous hydrogen in a pipeline from a source, such as a hydrogen production facility, to a final destination which may be a user of the hydrogen or a distribution center where hydrogen in the pipeline is diverted to multiple end users.

Cunha, Luciane↗

Final Design for Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) with Lithium Absorbers to Provide Validation Benchmarks for Y-12 Electrorefining Facility

One of the main goals of the Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) project is to use existing Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) assets to create critical experiment plutonium and uranium test beds for materials important to criticality safety that have insufficient benchmark evaluations. The plutonium test bed experiments were completed in 2018 and are published in the 2020 edition of the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook. The uranium test bed assemblies were completed in 2023 and accepted in the 2024 edition of the ICSBEP Handbook. The Nuclear Criticality Safety (NCS) group at Y-12 National Security Complex has identified programmatic need for validation cases for uranium electrorefining operations at Y-12. The electrorefining operation credits lithium enriched in 6 Li in addition to 35 Cl as absorbers in the design criticality safety evaluation for precluding criticality under upset conditions in the large and geometrically unfavorable electro-refiner. There is, however, inadequate experimental validation for the 6 Li absorbers. As an extension of the TEX uranium test bed, TEX-Cl critical experiments were performed with sodium chloride salt to address the 35 Cl thermal absorption as well as other validation needs at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). These experiments were completed in 2024 and accepted into the 2025 ICSBEP Handbook. To continue the methodology used in TEX-Cl, TEX-Li aims to accomplish the same. The overall design of both experiments was to use commercially available, high purity, salts with polyethylene moderator and HEU plates to configure a critical assembly. Three experiments are planned for TEX-Li using encapsulated lithium carbonate (Li 2 CO 3 ), with natural 6 Li abundance. For all experiments, the highly enriched uranium (HEU) Jemima plates will be used as fissile material. Multiple layers will be stacked together with encapsulated Li 2 CO 3 alternated with polyethylene in standard configurations. Standard stacking was found to be optimal in matching the different sensitivity profiles provided by the Y-12 models. Three configurations are proposed with varying polyethylene moderation and a constant 1/4” absorber thickness. The first uses 11 layers of 5/4” polyethylene, the second uses 9 layers of 3/4” polyethylene, and the third uses 10 layers of 1/2” polyethylene. Calculations showed that some alternative forms of lithium-based materials provided slightly less-optimal sensitivity profiles when compared to lithium carbonate but come with other drawbacks. These alternatives included lithium aluminate (LiAlO 2 ), Aluminum-2050 alloy, Aluminum-8090, Aluminum-2095, lithium hydride (LiH), and lithium fluoride (LiF). Lithium aluminate and aluminum-2050 provided comparable sensitivity profiles when compared to lithium carbonate and can be used instead if lithium carbonate cannot be readily procured. After a broad material study, lithium carbonate outperformed any alternative material with a balance in affordability and workability. The assessment of experimental uncertainties of the non-absorber and absorber components was predicted to be 0.00089 and 0.00093 Δk eff , respectively. The largest uncertainties may be reduced with precision dimensional inspection of the components. Many of the parts and equipment for IER 575 have already been fabricated or procured for previous projects and therefore do not contribute significantly to the overall cost of this experiment. This includes the Jemima plates and Comet critical assembly machine, which are existing NCSP assets, as well as the aluminum platen and polyethylene reflector rings, which were fabricated and authorized for the TEX experiment involving HEU with polyethylene. Lithium carbonate containers will be procured by LANL and will be filled by LLNL. The total material costs for TEX-Li experiments are estimated to be on the order of $\$$47,400. Precision inspection, including dimensional, mass, density, and impurity, is recommended for all components for an estimated cost of $\$$12,000.

35Cl↗

Application study of filamentary composites in a commercial jet aircraft fuselage

A study of applications of filamentary composite materials to aircraft fuselage structure was performed. General design criteria were established and material studies conducted using the 727-200 forebody as the primary structural component. Three design approaches to the use of composites were investigated: uniaxial reinforcement of metal structure, uniaxial and biaxial reinforcement of metal structure, and an all-composite design. Materials application studies for all three concepts were conducted on fuselage shell panels, keel beam, floor beams, floor panels, body frames, fail-safe straps, and window frames. Cost benefit studies were conducted and developmental program costs estimated. On the basis of weight savings, cost effectiveness, developmental program costs, and potential for early application on commercial aircraft, the unaxial design is recommended for a 5-year flight service evaluation program.

Johnson, R. W.↗

SEATSAT programs option analysis

A preliminary analysis of the costs of SEASAT follow-on options is presented. All the options assume the existence of SEASAT-A as currently defined in the SEASAT Economic Assessment. It is assumed that each option will continue through the year 2000 and approach operational system status in the 1983-1986 period, depending upon the sensor package selected. The launch vehicle assumed through 1983 is the Atlas Agena. After 1983, it is assumed SEASAT-A will switch to the use of the Space Shuttle. All cost estimates are 1976 dollars for fiscal year cost accounting, with no inflation rate included.

Luckl, L.↗

Design and implementation of a Windows NT network to support CNC activities

The Manufacturing, Materials, & Processes Technology Division is undergoing dramatic changes to bring it's manufacturing practices current with today's technological revolution. The Division is developing Computer Automated Design and Computer Automated Manufacturing (CAD/CAM) abilities. The development of resource tracking is underway in the form of an accounting software package called Infisy. These two efforts will bring the division into the 1980's in relationship to manufacturing processes. Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) is the final phase of change to be implemented. This document is a qualitative study and application of a CIM application capable of finishing the changes necessary to bring the manufacturing practices into the 1990's. The documentation provided in this qualitative research effort includes discovery of the current status of manufacturing in the Manufacturing, Materials, & Processes Technology Division including the software, hardware, network and mode of operation. The proposed direction of research included a network design, computers to be used, software to be used, machine to computer connections, estimate a timeline for implementation, and a cost estimate. Recommendation for the division's improvement include action to be taken, software to utilize, and computer configurations.

Shearrow, C. A.↗

Techno-Economic Performance of Eavor Loop 2.0

This project evaluated techno-economic performance for a sample Eavor-Loop 2.0 design for electricity production and direct-use heating. The Eavor-Loop 2.0 design investigated is a 7.5-km deep closed-loop geothermal system consisting of 12 laterals for a total of more than 90 km of downhole well and lateral length. Both a high geothermal gradient scenario of 60 degrees C/km and a low geothermal gradient scenario of 30 degrees C/km were considered. With pure water injected at 60 degrees C and 80 kg/s, reservoir simulations with the Slender-Body Theory simulator indicate average production temperatures over a 30-year lifetime of ~125 degrees C and ~210 degrees C for the low and high geothermal gradient scenario, respectively. These correspond to heat production of ~22 M Wth and ~51 M Wth, respectively. Using IPSEpro simulations, we find average power production of ~2.2 M We and ~8.6 M We, respectively, for a subcritical organic Rankine cycle power plant with air-cooled condensers. Cost estimates indicate the overall capital and levelized costs are dominated by the lateral drilling cost. Obtaining a levelized cost of electricity below $70/M Wh requires a geothermal gradient of 60 degrees C/km, a discount rate below 9%, and lateral drilling cost below $400/m. A well cost model indicates that ~$400/m for the Eavor-Loop 2.0 design investigated can be obtained for a drilling rate of penetration about 40 ft/hr (with bit life of 50 hours), and omitting casing and cement. Traditional (geothermal) well drilling has achieved these drilling rate conditions, including the Utah FORGE project where the rate of penetration has exceeded 50 ft/hr in granite. However, it is unclear if these conditions are still valid for drilling the Eavor-Loop 2.0 laterals (i.e., ~82 km of laterals at 4 to 7.5-km vertical depth with rock temperatures up to 460 degrees C), as such downhole completion has never been developed before. Competitive levelized cost of heat values ($1.2-$8.2/GJ) are calculated, even for the low geothermal gradient scenario (30 degrees C/km) and lateral drilling cost of $600/m.

advanced geothermal system↗

Estimating airline operating costs

A review was made of the factors affecting commercial aircraft operating and delay costs. From this work, an airline operating cost model was developed which includes a method for estimating the labor and material costs of individual airframe maintenance systems. The model, similar in some respects to the standard Air Transport Association of America (ATA) Direct Operating Cost Model, permits estimates of aircraft-related costs not now included in the standard ATA model (e.g., aircraft service, landing fees, flight attendants, and control fees). A study of the cost of aircraft delay was also made and a method for estimating the cost of certain types of airline delay is described.

Maddalon, D. V.↗

NASA Human Spaceflight Scenarios - Do All Our Models Still Say 'No'?

We analyze the potential life cycle cost of assorted NASA human spaceflight architectures an architecture as a sum of individual systems, working together. With the prior questions of high costs, limited budgets and uncertainties in mind, public private partnerships are central in these architectures. The cost data for current commercial public private partnerships is encouraging, as are cost estimates for future partnership approaches beyond low Earth orbit.

cost modeling estimation↗

NASA Instrument Cost Model for Explorer-Like Mission Instruments (NICM-E)

NICM-E is a cost estimating relationship that supplements the traditional NICM System Level CERs for instruments flown on NASA Explorer-like missions that have the following three characteristics: 1) fly on Class C missions, 2) major development led and performed by universities or research foundations, and 3) have significant level of inheritance.

Cost Estimating Relationship (CER)↗