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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The State of the Art in Visualizing Dynamic Multivariate Networks

Abstract Most real‐world networks are both dynamic and multivariate in nature, meaning that the network is associated with various attributes and both the network structure and attributes evolve over time. Visualizing dynamic multivariate networks is of great significance to the visualization community because of their wide applications across multiple domains. However, it remains challenging because the techniques should focus on representing the network structure, attributes and their evolution concurrently. Many real‐world network analysis tasks require the concurrent usage of the three aspects of the dynamic multivariate networks. In this paper, we analyze current techniques and present a taxonomy to classify the existing visualization techniques based on three aspects: temporal encoding, topology encoding, and attribute encoding. Finally, we survey application areas and evaluation methods; and discuss challenges for future research.

Kale, Bharat↗
DOE OSTI2026

DOE EV Data Collection - Charging Data

Charging data are collected from one of three sources, each with varying levels of additional information. These sources, in approximate order from most to least additional information, are: • The electric vehicle supply equipment (charger) • Onboard the vehicle itself • From a utility submeter. Many chargers provide software that allows for the collection and reporting of charging session data. If unavailable, data may be recorded by the charging vehicle’s onboard systems. If neither of these options is available, data can be acquired from utility submeters that simply track the energy flowing to one or more chargers. Data collected directly from the electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) are typically the most accurate and highest frequency. However, it is not always possible to discern which exact vehicle is being charged during any one session. EVSE-side data can be identified where a single charger ID but a range of vehicle IDs are present (e.g., CH001, EV001-EV005). Data collected from the vehicle’s onboard systems usually does not provide information on which exact charger is being used. Vehicle-side data can be identified where a single Vehicle ID but a range of Charger IDs are present (e.g., EV001, CH001-CH005). Data collected from utility submeters provide no information on which specific vehicle is charging or which specific charger is in use. Submeter data can be identified where multiple Vehicle IDs and multiple Charger IDs are present, but only a single Fleet ID is present (e.g., EV001-EV005, CH001-CH005, Fleet01). The **Charge Data Daily/Session Dictionaries** contains definitions for each available parameter collected as part of an individual charging session, aggregated at either a daily or session level. The parameters available will vary between vehicles and chargers. The **Charger Attributes** table contains specific charger characteristics, coded to at least one anonymous Charger ID and linked to either a single or a range of Vehicle IDs. Vehicle ID can be used as a key between charging data and vehicle attribute tables. The **Charger Attributes Data Dictionary** contains definitions for each available parameter collected on the physical and operational characteristics of the charging hardware itself. The **Vehicle Attributes Data Dictionary** contains definitions for each available parameter associated with a vehicle’s physical and functional attributes and fleet context. The **Vehicle Attributes** table contains specific vehicle characteristics, coded to an anonymous Vehicle ID. This Vehicle ID can be used as a key between vehicle data and vehicle attribute tables, and in cases where charging data are supplied, links a vehicle with the charger(s) that supplied it power. The **Charging Data** tables contain the data from each charger’s operations, coded to at least one anonymous Charger ID and linked to either a single or a range of Vehicle IDs. Vehicle ID can be used as a key between charging data and vehicle attribute tables. Data is being uploaded quarterly through 2023 and subject to change until the conclusion of the project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1994

Understanding software faults and their role in software reliability modeling

This study is a direct result of an on-going project to model the reliability of a large real-time control avionics system. In previous modeling efforts with this system, hardware reliability models were applied in modeling the reliability behavior of this system. In an attempt to enhance the performance of the adapted reliability models, certain software attributes were introduced in these models to control for differences between programs and also sequential executions of the same program. As the basic nature of the software attributes that affect software reliability become better understood in the modeling process, this information begins to have important implications on the software development process. A significant problem arises when raw attribute measures are to be used in statistical models as predictors, for example, of measures of software quality. This is because many of the metrics are highly correlated. Consider the two attributes: lines of code, LOC, and number of program statements, Stmts. In this case, it is quite obvious that a program with a high value of LOC probably will also have a relatively high value of Stmts. In the case of low level languages, such as assembly language programs, there might be a one-to-one relationship between the statement count and the lines of code. When there is a complete absence of linear relationship among the metrics, they are said to be orthogonal or uncorrelated. Usually the lack of orthogonality is not serious enough to affect a statistical analysis. However, for the purposes of some statistical analysis such as multiple regression, the software metrics are so strongly interrelated that the regression results may be ambiguous and possibly even misleading. Typically, it is difficult to estimate the unique effects of individual software metrics in the regression equation. The estimated values of the coefficients are very sensitive to slight changes in the data and to the addition or deletion of variables in the regression equation. Since most of the existing metrics have common elements and are linear combinations of these common elements, it seems reasonable to investigate the structure of the underlying common factors or components that make up the raw metrics. The technique we have chosen to use to explore this structure is a procedure called principal components analysis. Principal components analysis is a decomposition technique that may be used to detect and analyze collinearity in software metrics. When confronted with a large number of metrics measuring a single construct, it may be desirable to represent the set by some smaller number of variables that convey all, or most, of the information in the original set. Principal components are linear transformations of a set of random variables that summarize the information contained in the variables. The transformations are chosen so that the first component accounts for the maximal amount of variation of the measures of any possible linear transform; the second component accounts for the maximal amount of residual variation; and so on. The principal components are constructed so that they represent transformed scores on dimensions that are orthogonal. Through the use of principal components analysis, it is possible to have a set of highly related software attributes mapped into a small number of uncorrelated attribute domains. This definitively solves the problem of multi-collinearity in subsequent regression analysis. There are many software metrics in the literature, but principal component analysis reveals that there are few distinct sources of variation, i.e. dimensions, in this set of metrics. It would appear perfectly reasonable to characterize the measurable attributes of a program with a simple function of a small number of orthogonal metrics each of which represents a distinct software attribute domain.

Munson, John C.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Iterative multi-task learning and inference from seismic images

Seismic interpretation aims to extract quantitative and interpretable attributes from a seismic image produced using some migration method to inform characteristics of a subsurface reservoir or target of interest. Current paradigms for computing seismic attributes mostly rely on single-task algorithms. We develop an iterative, multi-task machine learning method to learn and infer multiple attributes from a seismic image. This method is composed of two stages: a multi-task inference stage and a multi-modal, multi-task refinement stage. The basic mechanism of this method is that we train a multi-task inference neural network (NN) to estimate a set of attributes, including a relative geological time (RGT), a denoised higher-resolution (DHR) seismic image, and multiple fault attributes (including probability, dip, and strike), from a low-resolution, noisy seismic image; then we input the inferred attributes to a multi-task refinement NN to enhance the raw inference results iteratively. The two multi-task NNs are trained separately based on synthetic seismic images and associated attributes generated by a geological modeling algorithm. The software we intend to release is a PyTorch implementation of this multi-task learning method for both 2D and 3D cases along with scripts to run the training/validation. The algorithm and software can be a useful tool for automatic seismic interpretation.

Gao, Kai↗
DOE OSTI2019

Pumped Storage Hydro Model Evaluation Report Task 1: Tool Assessment

Pumped storage hydro (PSH) projects support various aspects of power system operations. However, determining the value of PSH projects and the many services and contributions to the system they provide can be a challenge. The PSH techno-economic studies being carried out by a 5-lab consortium are defining extensive modeling approaches for evaluating the economic benefits of PSH projects. To enhance the impact of the valuation approach and follow-on techno-economic studies, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) will be developing a set of online tools that industry could adopt and use to advance PSH projects in the US. The problem is that the research team is not entirely clear on the features of the tools that would offer the most significant impact to industry. Thus, year one of this effort is designed to first define the needs of industry before developing the PSH valuation tool. The first step in defining industry needs is to evaluate existing tool packages, including those created by DOE and those by industry groups, to both measure usage levels and define tool attributes that maximize industry impact. The second step in this process will be to hold a workshop designed to elicit direct industry input. Given the breadth and nature of the task, which is to define ideal model attributes, the research team did not constrain the assessment to storage valuation tools. Several tools were assessed, and their characteristics compared against a list of “ideal” attributes that included ease of use, generalizability of results, and analytical flexibility. Information regarding usage and impact were then compared to specific model attributes to define which attributes appear to drive success. The following key lessons and implications can be drawn from the analysis: Models with high ease of use were often the most adopted by industry, though they did not necessarily have high publication reference records, meaning a published article made direct reference to the tool. For example, REScheck TM and COMcheck TM , two tools which share a site, have seen a high amount of web traffic and usage. Similarly, Storage Value Estimate Tool (StorageVET®), an energy storage valuation model, has a large number of organizations using it despite a low publication reference record. A common feature between these models is that they are web-hosted, theoretically making them more easily accessible with graphic user interfaces (GUIs) that are more navigable; Models with higher usage statistics were typically free and/or open source. While it may be unsurprising that this attribute could be considered a draw for users, there is the potential for overestimating the tool's value based on popularity due to the fact that some users may have used the model simply because it was free and not because it is the best model; Models that offer more in-depth analysis and a wide coverage of applications (e.g. VOLTTRON™, GridLAB-D™, and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVest)) have shown a high number of publication references as well as showing a high number of downloads in the case of GridLAB-D™. It should be noted that the figure below does not include the model with the highest number of publication references (EnergyPlus™) as it has been removed to show clearer distinction between the remaining tools; The most popular model within the evaluation list was EnergyPlus™. This tool has the highest number of publication references (2,034) of all models considered and contains both a high ease of use level as well as broad application flexibility. Its high usage may be correlated, however, with the presumed wider audience conducting energy consumption modeling compared to the audiences for some of the other tools in this list; Models that were low in both general usage and publication reference generally did not exhibit characteristics considered ideal by the research team. Some of these models offered a narrower range of analytical applications or lower generalizability of results. This would automatically restrict the pool of potential users to those who fall within a narrow range of specific technologies or applications. This report also explores two model structures for the PSH tool: decision tree-based, which would guide the user through the valuation methods defined in the PSH techno-economic studies currently being carried out by DOE, and an all-inclusive comprehensive model. The strengths of each were explored and a hybrid approach was defined that would embed a price taker model into the decision tree approach. Such an approach would provide a comprehensive approach for modeling small-scale PSH while recognizing the challenges associated with implementing a price-maker approach in an all-inclusive model. Insight gained in this analysis of other models can aid in narrowing down the list of effective and sought-after attributes, and in defining model structure. Next steps toward developing a model for storage valuation will be to gain direct industry input through workshops.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Duplications and losses of genes encoding known elements of the stress defence system of the Aspergilli contribute to the evolution of these filamentous fungi but do not directly influence their environmental stress tolerance

The contribution of stress protein duplication and deletion events to the evolution of the Aspergilli was studied. We performed a large-scale homology analysis of stress proteins and generated and analysed three stress defence system models based on Saccharomyces cerevisiae , Schizosaccharomyces pombe and Aspergillus nidulans . Although both yeast-based and A. nidulans -based models were suitable to trace evolutionary changes, the A. nidulans -based model performed better in mapping stress protein radiations. The strong Mantel correlation found between the positions of species in the phylogenetic tree on the one hand and either in the A. nidulans -based or S. cerevisiae -based models on the other hand demonstrated that stress protein expansions and reductions contributed significantly to the evolution of the Aspergilli. Interestingly, stress tolerance attributes correlated well with the number of orthologs only for a few stress proteins. Notable examples are Ftr1 iron permease and Fet3 ferro-O 2 -oxidoreductase, elements of the reductive iron assimilation pathway, in the S. cerevisiae -based model, as well as MpkC, a HogA-like mitogen activated protein kinase in the A. nidulans-based model. In the case of the iron assimilation proteins, the number of orthologs showed a positive correlation with H 2 O 2 -induced stress tolerance while the number of MpkC orthologs correlated positively with Congo Red induced cell wall stress, sorbitol induced osmotic stress and H 2 O 2 induced oxidative stress tolerances. For most stress proteins, changes in the number of orthologs did not correlate well with any stress tolerance attributes. As a consequence, stress tolerance patterns of the studied Aspergilli did not correlate with either the sets of stress response proteins in general or with the phylogeny of the species studied. These observations suggest that stress protein duplication and deletion events significantly contributed to the evolution of stress tolerance attributes of Aspergilli. In contrast, there are other processes, which may counterbalance the effects of stress gene duplications or deletions including (i) alterations in the structures of stress proteins leading to changes in their biological activities, (ii) varying biosynthesis of stress proteins, (iii) rewiring stress response regulatory networks or even (iv) acquiring new stress response genes by horizontal gene transfer. As a result, all these multilevel changes are indispensable for the successful adaptation of filamentous fungi to altering environmental conditions, especially when these organisms are entering new ecological niches.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

TbasCO: trait-based comparative ‘omics identifies ecosystem-level and niche-differentiating adaptations of an engineered microbiome

A grand challenge in microbial ecology is disentangling the traits of individual populations within complex communities. Various cultivation-independent approaches have been used to infer traits based on the presence of marker genes. However, marker genes are not linked to traits with complete fidelity, nor do they capture important attributes, such as the timing of gene expression or coordination among traits. To address this, we present an approach for assessing the trait landscape of microbial communities by statistically defining a trait attribute as a shared transcriptional pattern across multiple organisms. Leveraging the KEGG pathway database as a trait library and the Enhanced Biological Phosphorus Removal (EBPR) model microbial ecosystem, we demonstrate that a majority (65%) of traits present in 10 or more genomes have niche-differentiating expression attributes. For example, while many genomes containing high-affinity phosphorus transporter pstABCS display a canonical attribute (e.g. up-regulation under phosphorus starvation), we identified another attribute shared by many genomes where transcription was highest under high phosphorus conditions. Taken together, we provide a novel framework for unravelling the functional dynamics of uncultivated microorganisms by assigning trait-attributes through genome-resolved time-series metatranscriptomics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Topotactic Phase Transformation of Lithiated Spinel to Layered LiMn0.5Ni0.5O2: The Interaction of 3-D and 2-D Li-ion Diffusion

This study investigates the structural evolution of LiMn0.5Ni0.5O2 cathode materials for Li-ion batteries as a function of synthesis temperature and its effect on electrochemical performance. It is demonstrated that, as the synthesis temperature increases from 400 to 900 ?C, a gradual topotactic transformation occurs between a lithiated spinel structure, denoted herein as “lithium-excess spinel” LxS-LiMn0.5Ni0.5O2 (or LxS-LMNO), and the well-known layered LiMn0.5Ni0.5O2 structure prepared at high temperature, HT-LiMn0.5Ni0.5O2 (HT-LMNO). The electrochemical capacity of the LiMn0.5Ni0.5O2 electrodes follows a parabolic trend with increasing synthesis temperature, which is attributed primarily to the gradual transformation of 3-dimensional (3-D) to 2-dimensional (2-D) diffusion pathways for the Li ions. When synthesized at 400 °C, LxS-LiMn0.5Ni0.5O2 electrodes perform well, benefitting from the 3-D network of channels within the LxS structure. By contrast, when prepared at 500-700 °C, LiMn0.5Ni0.5O2 electrodes operate poorly, which is attributed to the formation of locally disordered structural arrangements that impede Li-ion diffusion. Such an increase in local disorder in the mid-temperature synthesis range is attributed to the structural frustration between the lithium-excess spinal and layered end-members. The transformation from the locally disordered to more ordered layered components between 700 °C and 900 °C enhances electrochemical performance. The study opens new avenues for designing next-generation Mn-rich cathode materials by fine-tuning the synthesis conditions as well as the composition and structure of LxS-LMNO electrodes.

energy storage↗
DOE OSTI2026

DOE EV Data Collection - Vehicle Data

Vehicle data consist of electric vehicle performance data collected directly from the vehicle during standard operations. Data were collected using onboard data loggers that were either installed by the project team or preinstalled by the original equipment manufacturer. Data recorded by the data loggers were made accessible via an online web portal or an application programming interface. Different data loggers were used (HEM, ViriCiti, and Geotab), and the method for each vehicle is defined in the vehicle attributes file. Some systems collected data on a “trip-level” basis, in which each row of a table represents a single trip (the period between a key-on and key-off event), whereas other data were collected on a per-day basis, in which each row represents a single day of operation. Data were collected over a range of data collection periods, depending on the project. Data have been anonymized by removing information or decreasing information resolution as necessary so that fleets are not identifiable. Due to the wide range of vehicle types represented and variation in data collection, data parameters and frequencies differ between vehicles and fleets The **Performance Data Daily/Trip Data Dictionaries** contain definitions for each available parameter associated with a vehicle’s operations, aggregated at either a daily or trip level. The parameters available will vary from vehicle to vehicle, but every possible parameter will be defined. The **Vehicle Attributes Data Dictionary** contains definitions for each available parameter associated with a vehicle’s physical and functional attributes and fleet context. The **Vehicle Attributes** table contains specific vehicle characteristics, coded to an anonymous Vehicle ID. This Vehicle ID can be used as a key between vehicle data and vehicle attribute tables. The **Vehicle Data** tables contain the data from each vehicle’s operations, aggregated at either a daily or trip level, coded to an anonymous Vehicle ID. This Vehicle ID can be used as a key between vehicle data and vehicle attribute tables. Data is being uploaded quarterly through 2023 and subject to change until the conclusion of the project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dataset: "Widespread Drought-driven Declines in Streamflows and Water quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin (1998-2022)"

This data package contains the associated data and scripts for Nagamoto, E., Ombadi, M., Ciulla, F. et al. Widespread drought-driven declines in streamflows and water quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin during 1998-2022. Commun Earth Environ 7, 734 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03890-5. This purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of the 21st century drought on water quantity and quality at catchments throughout the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). We used stream flow, water temperature, specific conductance, air temperature, precipitation, and catchment attribute data for over 200 sites in the UCRB, collected from the National Water Information System using Basin3D (Varadharajan, 2023), GAGESII (Falcone, 2010), and the Google Earth Engine. We identified years of severe drought between 1998 and 2022 using the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), then calculated the relative change percentage of the stream flow, water temperature, and specific conductance from drought versus non-drought years. We used the attribute information from GAGESII to investigate what physical traits of catchments are associated streamflow vulnerability (greater relative change) or resilience to drought. We used land cover data from the National Land Cover Database (USGS, 2024) to assess any changes to physical attributes that may not be represented in the static attributes information in GAGESII. To increase data availability, we modeled stream temperature using methods from Willard, 2023. While the study period is water years 1998 to 2022, the raw water quantity and quality data extends to 1950 and the meteorological data extends to 1980. The data and code can be downloaded via the UCRB_drought.zip. Within the zip, the files are organized as follows: - INPUTS: Contains all input data used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow.ipynb - OUTPUTS: Contains all intermediate data created from UCRB_Drought_Workflow.ipynb as well as final products including the calculated Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) - climatic_variables: The code used to collect meteorologic data from Google Earth Engine - feature_importance: The code used for the catchment attributes analysis - preprocessing: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Preprocessing.ipynb - pyeto: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Preprocessing.ipynb - calculations: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Impacts.ipynb - plotting: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Impacts.ipynb - README.md - UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Preprocessing.ipynb: The code used to prep raw data for the analysis - UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Impact.ipynb: The code which uses the prepped raw data for analysis, and plots all figures - requirements_ucrb-drought_v2.yml: The requirements file to create a virtual environment and Jupyter Lab kernel to run the code The INPUTS folder is organized into the following major directories and sub-directories. The "RDC_WT_SC_RAW" folder contains raw data for streamflow, water temperature, and specific conductance in a ".h5" file. The "NLCD_RAW" folder contains ".csv" files with annual land cover percentages for counties within the UCRB. The "MET_RAW" folder contains a ".csv" file with monthly meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) for the sites in the UCRB which was obtained from code in the climatic_variables folder. The "GAGESII" folder contains ".csv" files with physical catchment attribute variables for catchments across the country. The "WT_LSTM_data" folder contains ".csv" files with calculated WT (Willard, 2023) and the associated RMSEs. The "Upper_Colorado_River_Basin_Boundary" folder contains geographic data including a shapefile for plotting in the UCRB_Drought_Workflow.ipynb. The "RESERVOIRS_RAW" folder contains ".csv" files for each reservoir in the UCRB with daily reservoir storage. There are also two files in the INPUTS folder that have combined reservoir storage data and reservoir metadata. The OUTPUTS folder is organized into the following major directories and sub-directories. The "RDC_WT_SC_data" folder contains a folder "Water_year" with the associated cleaned data, metadata, and data availability information in ".csv" files, a folder "Median_Relchange" with the relative change comparing drought to non-drought years in ".csv" files, and a folder "Peak95_Min5_Relchange" that has ".csv" files for the relative change in peak (95th %) and minimum (5th %) variables. The "NLCD_data" folder contains the difference in land cover from the beginning to end of the study period and the percentage of the county that is within UCRB bounds can be found in Nagamoto et al (2025)). The "MET_data" folder contains separated monthly air temperature and precipitation data and the calculated PET in ".csv" files. The "SPEI_data" folder contains ".csv" files with calculated SPEI values (one restricted to the study period and the other with information from the entire MET data period). The "Paper_Tables" folder contains two ".csv" files containing site information and data availability and information about the GAGESII trait aggregated categories. The base directory includes the file “flmd.csv” for a list and description of all files and the file “dd.csv” for data dictionaries. Scripts for preprocessing, analysis, and figure generation are located in the associated GitHub repository found at [https://github.com/iNAIADS/drought-impacts/tree/develop/UCRB-drought]. UPDATE 1: Title and code file updated to match submitted manuscript 10-15-2025. UPDATE 2: Code and data files updated to match revised manuscript 3-4-2026. UPDATE 3: Code and data files updated to match revised manuscript 6-7-2026. ** NOTE: DD and FLMD have not been updated yet. UPDATE 4: Added associated Manuscript information and DD and FLMD have been updated. To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX: @misc{nagamoto2025drought, author = {Emily Nagamoto and Fabio Ciulla and Mohammad Ombadi and Jared Willard and Rosemary Carroll and Charuleka Varadharajan}, title = {Dataset: "Widespread Drought-driven Declines in Streamflows and Water quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin (1998-2022)"}, year = {2025}, doi = {10.15485/2551894}, publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository}, url = {https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2551894} }

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Arctic Impact Identification with Less Data Using Variable Relationships: An Exploratory Express LDRD project.

Regional impacts from sea ice loss can be challenging to separate from internal climate variability, potentially requiring thousands of ensemble members. East Asian wintertime cooling has been linked to sea ice loss from present day conditions in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project with these large ensemble counts. This cooling is theorized to arise from a strengthened Siberian High and East Asian Jet response. The strengthened Siberian High can be detected with one fifth the ensemble members needed for the East Asian wintertime cooling in a single model. We thus hypothesize that leveraging relationships between multiple variables in a conditional pathways-based approach would reduce the number of required ensemble members to conclusively attribute East Asian wintertime cooling to future sea ice concentrations. In all analyzed cases, confidence was increased when evaluating sea ice loss’s responsibility for the joint effects of East Asian cooling, East Asian Jet strengthening, and Siberian High strengthening over just East Asian cooling. However, we were not able to confidently attribute future East Asian wintertime cooling to sea ice loss in a single model. We found that significant intra-ensemble variability within single Earth System Models (ESMs) produced highly uncertain forcing response models upon which attribution results were undermined. We were able to show that ensemble mean seasonally averaged metrics from multiple ESMs greatly improved the accuracy of the forcing response linear models and exposed the necessity of all three steps in the pathway (sea ice area, Siberian High pressure, and East Asian Jet speed) for accurate prediction of East Asian wintertime cooling. Although all three steps were necessary, East Asian wintertime cooling possesses a large dependence on the Siberian High pressure, which weakens the confidence associated with overall strong joint-attribution comparing present day and future scenarios. We believe transitioning the pathway nodes to relative changes between the Siberian High and Aleutian Low as well as between the midlatitude westerlies and subtropical jet in the East Asianj Jet region may be able to produce significant attribution more fully dependent upon all three steps. Ultimately, this research demonstrates the simple extensibility of conditional pathways-based attribution to sea ice loss forcing on the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Observational Constraints on the Effective Climate Sensitivity from the Historical Period

The observed warming in the atmosphere and ocean can be used to estimate the climate sensitivity linked to present-day feedbacks, which is referred to as the effective climate sensitivity (Shist). However, such an estimate is affected by uncertainty in the radiative forcing, particularly aerosols, over the historical period. Here, we make use of detection and attribution techniques to derive the surface air temperature and ocean warming that can be attributed directly to greenhouse gas increases. These serve as inputs to a simple energy budget to infer the likelihood of Shist in response to observed greenhouse gases increases over two time periods (1862–2012 and 1955–2012). The benefit of using greenhouse gas attributable quantities is that they are not subject to uncertainties in the aerosol forcing (other than uncertainty in the attribution to greenhouse gas versus aerosol forcing not captured by the multi-model aerosol response pattern). The resulting effective climate sensitivity estimate, Shist, ranges from 1.3 °Cto 3.1 °C(5%–95% range) over the full instrumental period (1862–2012) for our best estimate, and gets slightly wider when considering further uncertainties. This estimate increases to 1.7 °C–4.6 °C if using the shorter period (1955–2012).We also evaluate the climate model simulated surface air temperature and ocean heat content increase in response to greenhouse gas forcing over the same periods, and compare them with the observationally-constrained values.We find that that the ocean warming simulated in greenhouse gas only simulations in models considered here is consistent with that attributed to greenhouse gas increases from observations, while one model simulates more greenhouse gas-induced surface air warming than observed. However, other models with sensitivity outside our range show greenhouse gas warming that is consistent with that attributed in observations, emphasising that feedbacks during the historical period may differ from the feedbacks at CO2 doubling and from those at true equilibrium.

Tokarska, Katarzyna B↗
NASA NTRS2022

Global Premature Mortality By Dust and Pollution PM 2.5 Estimated From Aerosol Reanalysis of the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2

This study quantifies global premature deaths attributable to long-term exposure of ambient PM 2.5 , or PM 2.5 -attributable mortality, by dust and pollution sources. We used NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol reanalysis product for PM 2.5 and the cause-specific relative risk (RR) from the integrated exposure-response (IER) model to estimate global PM2.5-attributable mortality for five causes of deaths, namely ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CEV) or stroke, lung cancer (LC), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI). The estimated yearly global PM 2.5 -attributable mortality in 2019 amounts to 2.89 (1.38–4.48) millions, which is composed of 1.19 (0.73–1.84) million from IHD, 1.01 (0.35–1.55) million from CEV, 0.29 (0.11–0.48) million from COPD, 0.23 (0.14–0.33) million from ALRI, and 0.17 (0.04–0.28) million from LC (the numbers in parentheses represent the estimated mortality range due corresponding to RR spread at the 95% confidence interval). The mortality counts vary with geopolitical regions substantially, with the highest number of deaths occurring in Asia. China and India account for 40% and 23% of the global PM 2.5 -attributable deaths, respectively. In terms of sources of PM 2.5 , about 22% of the global all-cause PM 2.5 -attributable deaths are caused by desert dust. The largest dust attribution is 37% for ALRI. The relative contributions of dust and pollution sources vary with the causes of deaths and geographical regions. Enforcing air pollution regulations to transfer areas from PM 2.5 nonattainment to PM2.5 attainment can have great health benefits. Being attainable with the United States air quality standard (AQS) of 15 μg/m 3 globally would have avoided nearly 40% or 1.2 million premature deaths. The most recent update of PM 2.5 guideline from 10 to 5 μg/m 3 by the World Health Organization (WHO) would potentially save additional one million lives. Our study highlights the importance of distinguishing aerodynamic size from geometric size in accurately assessing the global health burden of PM 2.5 and particularly for dust. A use of geometric size in diagnosing dust PM 2.5 from the model simulation, a common approach in current health burden assessment, could overestimate the PM 2.5 level in the dust belt by 40–170%, leading to an overestimate of global all-cause mortality by 1 million or 32%.

PM2.5↗
DOE OSTI2019

Parallel membership queries on very large scientific data sets using bitmap indexes

© 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Many scientific applications produce very large amounts of data as advances in hardware fuel computing and experimental facilities. Managing and analyzing massive quantities of scientific data is challenging as data are often stored in specific formatted files, such as HDF5 and NetCDF, which do not offer appropriate search capabilities. In this research, we investigated a special class of search capability, called membership query, to identify whether queried elements of a set are members of an attribute. Attributes that naturally have classification values appear frequently in scientific domains such as category and object type as well as in daily life such as zip code and occupation. Because classification attribute values are discrete and require random data access, performing a membership query on a large scientific data set creates challenges. We applied bitmap indexing and parallelization to membership queries to overcome these challenges. Bitmap indexing provides high performance not only for low cardinality attributes but also for high cardinality attributes, such as floating-point variables, electric charge, or momentum in a particle physics data set, due to compression algorithms such as Word-Aligned Hybrid. We conducted experiments, in a highly parallelized environment, on data obtained from a particle accelerator model and a synthetic data set.

Yildiz, Beytullah↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exploring Gradient-Based Multi-directional Controls in GANs

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have been widely applied in modeling diverse image distributions. However, despite its impressive applications, the structure of the latent space in GANs largely remains as a black-box, leaving its controllable generation an open problem, especially when spurious correlations between different semantic attributes exist in the image distributions. To address this problem, previous methods typically learn linear directions or individual channels that control semantic attributes in the image space. However, they often suffer from imperfect disentanglement, or are unable to obtain multi-directional controls. Furthermore, in this work, in light of the above challenges, we propose a novel approach that discovers nonlinear controls, which enables multi-directional manipulation as well as effective disentanglement, based on gradient information in the learned GAN latent space. More specifically, we first learn interpolation directions by following the gradients from classification networks trained separately on the attributes, and then navigate the latent space by exclusively controlling channels activated for the target attribute in the learned directions. Empirically, with small training data, our approach is able to gain fine-grained controls over a diverse set of bi-directional and multi-directional attributes, and we showcase its ability to achieve disentanglement significantly better than state-of-the-art methods both qualitatively and quantitatively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning to discover mineral trapping signatures due to CO 2 injection

Mineral trapping is pursued as a geological CO 2 sequestration (GCS) mechanism because it permanently stores CO 2 in solid phases or minerals. However, CO 2 mineral-trapping mechanisms are poorly understood due to (1) lack of sufficient field and laboratory data characterizing these complex processes, and (2) challenges to develop site-specific reactive-transport models coupling fluid flow and geochemical reactions occurring at various temporal (from milliseconds to years) and spatial (from pore (millimeters) to field (kilometers)) scales. Reactive transport with additional complexities such as heterogeneity can make the simulation outputs even more difficult to interpret because of complex nonlinearity and multi-scale interdependencies. Furthermore, the values of model outputs such as concentrations can vary by several orders of magnitude, making it harder to correlate and characterize the impact of the variables via traditional data interpretation techniques such as exploratory data analyses. Recently, machine learning (ML) has shown promise in feature discovery and in highlighting hidden mechanisms that cannot be obtained by existing data-analytics and statistical methods. In this study, we applied an unsupervised ML approach, non-negative matrix factorization with custom -means clustering (NMF) to the data generated by reactive-transport simulations of GCS. The reactive-transport data consisted of 19 attributes, including four physio-chemical variables (pH, porosity, aqueous CO 2 , and sequestered CO 2 ), six chemical species (K + , Na + , HCO, Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , Fe 2+ ), and four carbonate minerals (calcite, dolomite, siderite, and ankerite), a feldspar mineral (albite), and four clay minerals (illite, clinochlore, kaolinite, and smectite) over a period of 200 years of simulation time. Furthermore, the simulation data used was for Morrow B sandstone at the Farnsworth hydrocarbon unit in Texas. Data are sampled at two locations within the model domain: (1) at the injection well and (2) 200 m west of the injection well. The injection was performed for a period of 10 years. Using NMF, we estimated the temporal interdependencies among the 19 attributes over a span of 200 years. We found that NMF was able to identify four reaction stages and their dominant attributes; these cannot be directly discerned through traditional visualization (e.g., line plots, Pareto analysis, Glyph-based visualization methods) or exploratory data analysis tools of the simulation data. The four stages were: reactions in the injection phase followed by short-, mid-, and long-term reactions. The NMF analysis also revealed that 10 among the 19 attributes are dominant. These dominant attributes for mineral trapping include calcite, dolomite at injection well, siderite at 200 m away from the injection well, clinochlore, kaolinite, Na + , K + , Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , pH, and aqeuous CO 2 . Finally, at late times (65–200 years), our results showed that calcite plays a major role in mineral trapping with insignificant contribution from siderite, ankerite, and clay minerals. These findings make the proposed unsupervised ML-model attractive for reactive-transport sensing towards real-time GCS monitoring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Community detection robustness of graph neural networks

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are increasingly widely used for community detection in attributed networks. They combine structural topology with node attributes through message passing and pooling. However, their robustness or lack thereof with respect to different perturbations and targeted attacks in conjunction with community detection tasks is not well understood. To shed light on latent mechanisms behind GNN sensitivity on community detection tasks, we conduct a systematic computational evaluation of six widely adopted GNN architectures graph convolutional network, graph attention network, graph sample and aggregate (GraphSAGE), differentiable pooling (DiffPool), minimum cut pooling (MinCUT), and deep modularity networks (DMoN). The analysis covers three perturbation categories: node attribute manipulations, edge topology distortions, and adversarial attacks. We use element-centric similarity as the evaluation metric on synthetic benchmarks and real-world citation networks. Our findings indicate that supervised GNNs tend to achieve higher baseline accuracy, while unsupervised methods, particularly DMoN, maintain stronger resilience under targeted and adversarial perturbations. Furthermore, robustness appears to be strongly influenced by community strength, with well-defined communities reducing performance loss. Across all models, node attribute perturbations associated with targeted edge deletions and shifts in attribute distributions tend to cause the largest degradation in community recovery. These findings highlight important trade-offs between accuracy and robustness in GNN-based community detection and offer insights into selecting architectures resilient to noise and adversarial attacks.

Goel, Jaidev [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State↗
DOE OSTI2018

Implementing the Hedge Strategy in the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review

Maintaining stable and effective deterrence requires nuclear forces that are structured and postured to respond to potential futures challenges as well as deter today’s potential adversaries under present circumstances. The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) establishes a strategy for hedging against uncertainty that prioritizes the ability to sustain five key force attributes in the face of technological or geopolitical challenges. Using these key attributes, one can analyze the current and planned U.S. nuclear force structures, as well as various alternatives that have or may be proposed. This analysis is based on the ability of force structures to provide key attributes and combinations of attributes, and their ability to preserve those attributes and combinations when potential challenges arise.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗