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Advancing the theory and practice of impact assessment: Setting the research agenda

Impact assessment has been in place for over 40 years and is now practised in some form in all but two of the world's nations. In this paper we reflect on the state of the art of impact assessment theory and practice, focusing on six well-established forms: EIA, SEA, policy assessment, SIA, HIA and sustainability assessment. We note that although the fundamentals of impact assessment have their roots in the US National Environmental Policy Act 1969 (NEPA) each branch of the field is distinct in also drawing on other theoretical and conceptual bases that in turn shape the prevailing discourse in each case, generating increasing degrees of specialisation within each sub-field. Against this backdrop, we consider the strengths and weaknesses of collective impact assessment practice, concluding that although there are substantial strengths, the plethora of specialist branches is generating a somewhat confusing picture and lack of clarity regarding how the pieces of the impact assessment jigsaw puzzle fit together. We use this review to suggest an overarching research agenda that will enable impact assessment to evolve in line with changing expectations for what it should deliver. -- Highlights: ► Strengths, weakness, opportunities and threats for IA are explored in this paper ► EIA, SEA, policy assessment, SIA, HIA and sustainability assessment are reviewed ► Diversity of practice is both a strength and weakness in the current economic climate ► There are opportunities to simplify IA by focusing on common and fundamental elements ► Continued research into theory related to IA effectiveness is also essential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A multi-scale metrics approach to forest fragmentation for Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment

Forests are becoming severely fragmented as a result of land development. South Korea has responded to changing community concerns about environmental issues. The nation has developed and is extending a broad range of tools for use in environmental management. Although legally mandated environmental compliance requirements in South Korea have been implemented to predict and evaluate the impacts of land-development projects, these legal instruments are often insufficient to assess the subsequent impact of development on the surrounding forests. It is especially difficult to examine impacts on multiple (e.g., regional and local) scales in detail. Forest configuration and size, including forest fragmentation by land development, are considered on a regional scale. Moreover, forest structure and composition, including biodiversity, are considered on a local scale in the Environmental Impact Assessment process. Recently, the government amended the Environmental Impact Assessment Act, including the SEA, EIA, and small-scale EIA, to require an integrated approach. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to establish an impact assessment system that minimizes the impacts of land development using an approach that is integrated across multiple scales. This study focused on forest fragmentation due to residential development and road construction sites in selected Congestion Restraint Zones (CRZs) in the Greater Seoul Area of South Korea. Based on a review of multiple-scale impacts, this paper integrates models that assess the impacts of land development on forest ecosystems. The applicability of the integrated model for assessing impacts on forest ecosystems through the SEIA process is considered. On a regional scale, it is possible to evaluate the location and size of a land-development project by considering aspects of forest fragmentation, such as the stability of the forest structure and the degree of fragmentation. On a local scale, land-development projects should consider the distances at which impacts occur in the vicinity of the forest ecosystem, and these considerations should include the impacts on forest vegetation and bird species. Impacts can be mitigated by considering the distances at which these influences occur. In particular, this paper presents an integrated environmental impact assessment system to be applied in the SEIA process. The integrated assessment system permits the assessment of the cumulative impacts of land development on multiple scales. -- Highlights: • The model is to assess the impact of forest fragmentation across multiple scales. • The paper suggests the type of forest fragmentation on a regional scale. • The type can be used to evaluate the location and size of a land development. • The paper shows the influence distance of land development on a local scale. • The distance can be used to mitigate the impact at an EIA process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Social impact assessment in mining projects in Northern Finland: Comparing practice to theory

The paper discusses social impact assessments (SIA) for mining projects in light of the international principles and guidelines for such assessments and the academic literature in the field. The data consist of environmental impact assessment (EIA) programmes and reports for six mining projects that have started up in northern Finland in the 2000s. A first observation is that the role of the SIAs in the EIA programmes and reports studied was quite minor: measured in number of pages, the assessments account for three or four percent of the total. This study analyses the data collection, research methodology and conceptual premises used in the SIAs. It concludes that the assessments do not fully meet the high standards of the international principles and guidelines set out for them: for example, elderly men are over-represented in the data and no efforts were made to identify and bring to the fore vulnerable groups. Moreover, the reliability of the assessments is difficult to gauge, because the qualitative methods are not described and where quantitative methods were used, details such as non-response rates to questionnaires are not discussed. At the end of the paper, the SIAs are discussed in terms of Jürgen Habermas' theory of knowledge interests, with the conclusion that the assessments continue the empirical analytical tradition of the social sciences and exhibit a technical knowledge interest. -- Highlights: • Paper investigates social impact assessments in Finnish mining projects. • Role of social impact assessment is minor in whole EIA-process. • Mining SIAs give the voice for elderly men, vulnerable groups are not identified. • Assessment of SIAs is difficult because of lacking transparency in reporting. • SIAs belong to empirical analytical tradition with technical knowledge interest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bridging the gap between LCA, LCC and CBA as sustainability assessment tools

Increasing interest in sustainability has led to the development of sustainability assessment tools such as Life Cycle Analysis (LCA), Life Cycle Costing (LCC) and Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA). Due to methodological disparity of these three tools, conflicting assessment results generate confusion for many policy and business decisions. In order to interpret and integrate assessment results, the paper provides a framework that clarifies the connections and coherence between the included assessment methodologies. Building on this framework, the paper further focuses on key aspects to adapt any of the methodologies to full sustainability assessments. Aspects dealt with in the review are for example the reported metrics, the scope, data requirements, discounting, product- or project-related and approaches with respect to scarcity and labor requirements. In addition to these key aspects, the review shows that important connections exist: (i) the three tools can cope with social inequality, (ii) processes such as valuation techniques for LCC and CBA are common, (iii) Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is used as input in both LCA and CBA and (iv) LCA can be used in parallel with LCC. Furthermore, the most integrated sustainability approach combines elements of LCA and LCC to achieve the Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA). The key aspects and the connections referred to in the review are illustrated with a case study on the treatment of end-of-life automotive glass. - Highlights: • Proliferation of assessment tools creates ambiguity and confusion. • The developed assessment framework clarifies connections between assessment tools. • Broadening LCA, key aspects are metric and data requirements. • Broadening LCC, key aspects are scope, time frame and discounting. • Broadening CBA, focus point, timespan, references, labor and scarcity are key.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A framework for guiding sustainability assessment and on-farm strategic decision making

Responding to future challenges and societal needs, various actions are taken in agriculture to evolve towards more sustainable farming practices. These actions imply strategic choices and suppose adequate sustainability assessments to identify, measure, evaluate and communicate sustainable development. However, literature is scarce on the link between strategic decision making and sustainability assessment. As questions emerge on how, what and when to measure, the objective of this paper is to construct a framework for guiding sustainability assessment and on-farm strategic decision making. Qualitative research on own experiences from the past and a recent project revealed four categories of actual needs farmers, advisors and experts have regarding sustainability assessment: context, flexibility, focus on farm and farmer and communication. These stakeholders' needs are then incorporated into a two-dimensional framework that marries the intrinsic complexity of sustainability assessment tools and the time frame of strategic decision making. The framework allows a farm-specific and flexible approach leading to harmonized actions towards sustainable farming. As this framework is mainly a procedural instrument to guide the use of sustainability assessment tools within strategic decision making, it fits to incorporate, even guide, future research on sustainability assessment tools themselves and on their adoption on farms. - Highlights: • How to link sustainability assessment and on-farm strategic decision making is unclear. • Two-dimensional framework incorporating stakeholders' needs regarding sustainability assessment • Linking complexity of sustainability assessment tools and the time frame of strategic decision making • Farm-specific and flexible approach to harmonize action towards sustainable farming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Strategic health assessment for large scale industry development activities: An introduction

Attention to the determinants of health and health equity in impact assessment remains under-utilised at the project, Environmental Impact Assessment, level. Determinants focussed health impact assessment has developed at an upstream, policy level, but tends to assess draft proposals rather than form the basis of policies and plans. Project level health (risk) impact assessment tends to focus on a project by project basis, and generally eschews a broad model of health. One answer to this ‘health and impact assessment’ problem is to shift attention to the strategic level, in a similar manner to, and learning from, the development of Strategic Environmental Assessment and its theoretical and practical derivatives. In this article we explain the need for this shift both conceptually and practically by navigating the literature. Our analysis derives specifically from developing the Strategic Health Impact Assessment section of new international industry HIA guidance, coupled with work in and around health impact assessment and policy analysis for the past decade. We develop characteristics of conducting strategic health assessments for multiple industry development activities at the supra national, national or regional level. Our intended audience are public administrators, industry planners and financial sector investors. A particular focus is low and middle income countries, now seen by industry as emerging markets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Sustainable Hydropower in Lower Mekong Countries: Technical Assessment and Training Travel Report Thailand

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), through their partnership with the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), requested the support of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to provide specialized technical assistance as part of the Smart Infrastructure for the Mekong (SIM) Program in Thailand. Introduced in July 2013 by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, SIM is a U.S. Government Inter-Agency program that provides Lower Mekong partner countries with targeted, demand-driven technical and scientific assistance to support environmentally sound, climate conscious and socially equitable infrastructure, clean energy development, and water resources optimization. The U.S. Government is committed to supporting sustainable economic development within the region by providing tools, best practices, technical assistance, and lessons learned for the benefit of partner countries. In response to a request from the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), a SIM project was developed with two main activities: 1) to promote hydropower sustainability and efficiency through technical assessment training at two existing hydropower assets in Thailand, and 2) the design and implementation of one national and two or three regional science and policy workshops, to be co-hosted with EGAT, to build common understanding of and commitment to environmental and social safeguards for Mekong Basin hydropower projects. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is leading the technical assessment (Activity 1), and has contracted ORNL to provide expert technical assistance focused on increasing efficiency at existing projects, with the goal of increasing renewable energy generation at little to no capital cost. ORNL is the leading national laboratory in hydropower analysis, with a nationally recognized and highly qualified team of scientists addressing small to large-scale systems (basin-, regional-, and national-scale) energy generation optimization analysis for DOE. The mission of the ORNL Water Power Program is to develop technologies, decision-support tools, and methods of analysis that enable holistic management of water-dependent energy infrastructure and natural resources in support of the DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office (DOE-EERE), Federal hydropower agencies, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), energy producers, and other entities. In support of SIM, ORNL completed technical assessments of two hydropower plants owned and operated by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT): Vajiralongkorn (VRK), with an installed capacity of 300 MW, and Rajjaprabha (RPB), with an installed capacity of 240MW. Technical assessment is defined as the assessment of hydropower operation and performance, and the identification of potential opportunities for performance improvement through plant optimization. At each plant, the assessment included an initial analysis of hydropower operating and performance metrics, provided by dam owners. After this analysis, ORNL engaged with the plant management team in a skills exchange, where best practices, operational methods, and technical challenges were discussed. The technical assessment process was outlined to plant management followed by a presentation of preliminary results and analysis based on 50 days of operational data. EGAT has agreed to provide a full year of operational data so a complete and detailed assessment that captures seasonal variability can be completed. The results of these assessments and discussions will be used to develop a set of best practices, training, and procedure recommendations to improve the efficiency of the two assessed plants.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches

This report documents the initial findings from the Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC)-sponsored research project Methods for Estimating Joint Probabilities of Coincident and Correlated Flooding Mechanisms for Nuclear Power Plant Flood Hazard Assessments.1 This research project is a part of NRC’s Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program and will aid the development of guidance on the use of PFHA methods to evaluate infrastructure safety for existing and proposed US nuclear power plants (NPPs). More specifically, this project intends to provide technical background for the development of flood hazard curves for multi-mechanism floods (MMFs). MMFs are flood events caused by more than one flooding mechanism (e.g., flood events due to the simultaneous occurrence of precipitation-induced river flooding and storm surge). Project activities include three main tasks: Task 1—Survey of current concepts and methods in assessing MMF hazards; Task 2—Critical assessment of selected methods and approaches for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk; Task 3—Development of example case studies to illustrate best practices for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk The initial findings from Tasks 1 and 2 are documented in this report. Task 1 comprised a survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to understand and assess flood hazards due to MMFs. Task 2 involved a critical review of the selected approaches and methods. To that end, the scope of this report includes documentation of (1) a reconnaissance-level survey of the current state of concepts and practice for MMF hazard assessment; (2) a generalized MMF assessment framework to address the distinctions among various types of flood-forcing phenomena, flood mechanisms (grouped into three mechanism types), and flood severity metrics; (3) a wide-ranging survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to various flooding phenomena and settings; and (4) a critical assessment of MMF hazard assessment methods. Studies were identified involving MMFs related to coastal flooding mechanisms, fluvial (rivers/streams) flooding mechanisms, and associated combinations of coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms. Studies were also identified that address MMFs involving coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms as well as coastal flooding mechanisms along with extreme precipitation (without specific attribution to fluvial or pluvial mechanisms). The studies identified for review in this report included assessments at varying spatial scales (from local to global) with differing geographic regions of focus using both observed and synthetic data. The majority of studies identified and reviewed were site-specific assessments focusing on relatively short return periods. Studies considered a range of flood severity metrics, made differing assumptions regarding the occurrence of extrema, and used multiple statistical techniques; the use of copulas for the development of joint distributions was a particularly popular analysis technique. The literature review highlighted the differences among existing studies relative to terminology used, means of presenting results, framework and techniques employed, and level of sophistication regarding the number and types of variables considered. Despite the significant diversity in existing studies, the review identified several promising techniques that will be considered in future work under this project, including the development of joint distributions for MMFs using copula and Bayesian-motivated approaches.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Reference H Cycle 3 Stability, Control, and Flying Qualities Batch Assessments

This work is an update of the assessment completed in February of 1996, when a preliminary assessment report was issued for the Cycle 2B simulation model. The primary purpose of the final assessment was to re-evaluate each assessment against the flight control system (FCS) requirements document using the updated model. Only a limited number of final assessments were completed due to the close proximity of the release of the Langley model and the assessment deliverable date. The assessment used the nonlinear Cycle 3 simulation model because it combines nonlinear aeroelastic (quasi-static) aerodynamic with hinge moment and rate limited control surface deflections. Both Configuration Aerodynamics (Task 32) and Flight Controls (Task 36) were funded in 1996 to conduct the final stability and control assessments of the unaugmented Reference H configuration in FY96. Because the two tasks had similar output requirements, the work was divided such that Flight Controls would be responsible for the implementation and checkout of the simulation model and Configuration Aerodynamics for writing Madab "script' files, conducting the batch assessments and writing the assessment report. Additionally, Flight Controls was to investigate control surface allocations schemes different from the baseline Reference H in an effort to fulfill flying qualities criteria.

Henderson, Dennis K.↗

Risk-Based Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decision makers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine. In this work, an alternative approach based on the probabilistic method was described for a comprehensive assessment of an aeropropulsion system. The statistical approach quantifies the design uncertainties inherent in a new aeropropulsion system and their influences on engine performance. Because of this, it enhances the reliability of a system assessment. A technical assessment of a wave-rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine was performed to demonstrate the methodology. The assessment used probability distributions to account for the uncertainties that occur in component efficiencies and flows and in mechanical design variables. The approach taken in this effort was to integrate the thermodynamic cycle analysis embedded in the computer code NEPP (NASA Engine Performance Program) and the engine weight analysis embedded in the computer code WATE (Weight Analysis of Turbine Engines) with the fast probability integration technique (FPI). FPI was developed by Southwest Research Institute under contract with the NASA Glenn Research Center. The results were plotted in the form of cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity analyses and were compared with results from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison showed that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system. The current work addressed the application of the probabilistic approach to assess specific fuel consumption, engine thrust, and weight. Similarly, the approach can be used to assess other aspects of aeropropulsion system performance, such as cost, acoustic noise, and emissions. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Tong, Michael T.↗

Configuration Management Process Assessment Strategy

Purpose: To propose a strategy for assessing the development and effectiveness of configuration management systems within Programs, Projects, and Design Activities performed by technical organizations and their supporting development contractors. Scope: Various entities CM Systems will be assessed dependent on Project Scope (DDT&E), Support Services and Acquisition Agreements. Approach: Model based structured against assessing organizations CM requirements including best practices maturity criteria. The model is tailored to the entity being assessed dependent on their CM system. The assessment approach provides objective feedback to Engineering and Project Management of the observed CM system maturity state versus the ideal state of the configuration management processes and outcomes(system). center dot Identifies strengths and risks versus audit gotcha's (findings/observations). center dot Used "recursively and iteratively" throughout program lifecycle at select points of need. (Typical assessments timing is Post PDR/Post CDR) center dot Ideal state criteria and maturity targets are reviewed with the assessed entity prior to an assessment (Tailoring) and is dependent on the assessed phase of the CM system. center dot Supports exit success criteria for Preliminary and Critical Design Reviews. center dot Gives a comprehensive CM system assessment which ultimately supports configuration verification activities.*

Henry, Thad↗

Communications Technology Assessment for the Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Control and Non-Payload Communications (CNPC) Link

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Glenn Research Center (GRC) is performing communications systems research for the Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project. One of the goals of the communications element is to select and test a communications technology for the UAS Control and Non-Payload Communications (CNPC) link. The GRC UAS Modeling and Simulation (M/S) Sub Team will evaluate the performance of several potential technologies for the CNPC link through detailed software simulations. In parallel, an industry partner will implement a technology in hardware to be used for flight testing. The task necessitated a technical assessment of existing Radio Frequency (RF) communications technologies to identify the best candidate systems for use as the UAS CNPC link. The assessment provides a basis for selecting the technologies for the M/S effort and the hardware radio design. The process developed for the technical assessments for the Future Communications Study1 (FCS) was used as an initial starting point for this assessment. The FCS is a joint Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Eurocontrol study on technologies for use as a future aeronautical communications link. The FCS technology assessment process methodology can be applied to the UAS CNPC link; however the findings of the FCS are not directly applicable because of different requirements between a CNPC link and a general aeronautical data link. Additional technologies were added to the potential technologies list from the State of the Art Unmanned Aircraft System Communication Assessment developed by NASA GRC2. This document investigates the state of the art of communications as related to UAS. A portion of the document examines potential communications systems for a UAS communication architecture. Like the FCS, the state of the art assessment surveyed existing communications technologies. It did not, however, perform a detailed assessment of the technology necessary to recommend a technology for the UAS CNPC link. The technical assessment process, as shown in Figure 1, consists of the following steps. First, candidate RF communications technologies are identified. An initial review of each of these technologies is then performed to determine if the technology appears to be a good candidate and requires further review. Any technology that can be shown to be inadequate at that point is removed from consideration to allow for more detailed analysis of the remaining technologies. Criteria for the detailed assessments are defined and a scoring methodology is devised. This is followed by the detailed review and scoring of each technology. The least favorable technologies are removed during the process until only the few best candidates remain.

Aircraft Command and Control↗

The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

models↗

Development and Validation of Sensorimotor Assessment Tasks Using Spaceflight Analogs

INTRODUCTION Exploration class missions will require a new level of crew autonomy to self-assess and treat their sensorimotor dysfunction around periods of gravitational transition, where sensorimotor disturbances are at their highest. There is a need to define sensorimotor assessment thresholds that indicate when performance in early extravehicular activities (EVAs) might be impacted or unsafe. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a set of assessment tasks using sensorimotor spaceflight analogs including the Sensorimotor Disorientation Analog (SDA) and +3G x sustained centrifugation. METHODS For the SDA, forty-one healthy non-astronaut subjects (21 males, 20 females; Mean ± SD, Age: 34.0 ± 7.8 years) volunteered to participate in this study. Subjects attended two testing sessions: 1) familiarization to the tasks and baseline data collection, and 2) tasks completed under two levels of sensorimotor disorientation. Subjects performed a series of seven sensorimotor assessment tasks followed by two operationally relevant EVA analog tasks. The sensorimotor assessments tasks, ordered from least to most provocative of the sensorimotor system, included: postural stability, step test, prone/supine recovery from fall (RFF), four-square-step-test, obstacle negotiation with turns (OTT), kneel-and-reach, and augmented reality full-body coordination. The operational analog tasks included a top-hatch capsule egress and a 5-minute EVA traversal. Disorientation was applied via the SDA which utilized galvanic vestibular stimulation and weighted trunk, wrists, and ankles to target the vestibular and proprioceptive systems such that performance while wearing the SDA mimicked astronaut postflight performance at R+0 and R+1. Sixteen healthy non-astronaut subjects (10 males, 6 females; Age: 35.0 ± 9.5 years) completed +3G x 60-minute sustained centrifugation as an established spaceflight analog replicating the vestibular disruptions seen postflight. Subjects completed a pre-session which included familiarization to the tasks and a 5-minute centrifuge spin. The data collection session included, in order, a baseline data collection, 60-minute centrifuge spin, immediate post-centrifuge data collection, 45-minute seated recovery, and a final data collection. The same assessment and operational analog tasks were conducted as described above. RESULTS Pearsons’ correlation r-values were calculated between assessment and operational analog tasks. The two assessment tasks with the strongest correlations to the operational analog tasks were the RFF (SDA: r≥ 0.57, Centrifuge: r ≥0.55) and OTT (SDA: r≥ 0.66, Centrifuge: r ≥ 0.49). For brevity, repeated measures ANOVA with follow-up paired t-tests are discussed for these two assessment tasks. The SDA found significant differences between all three levels of disorientation for both RFF and OTT (p < 0.001). Significant differences were also found between baseline and immediate post centrifuge testing for both the RFF (p≤ 0.011) and OTT (p = 0.001). Additional results are forthcoming for both disorientation paradigms. DISCUSSION These validation studies provide evidence for down-selection of the assessment tasks that were able to distinguish between levels of sensorimotor disorientation and correlate to performance in operationally relevant tasks for use in upcoming Artemis missions.

S C Moudy↗

Energy Assessments under the Top 10,000 Program - A Case Study for a Steel Mill in China

One of the largest energy-savings programs for the Chinese industrial sector was the Top-1,000 Program, which targeted the 1,000 largest industrial enterprises in China. This program was launched in 2006, implemented through 2010, and covered 33% of national energy usage. Because of the success of the Top-1000 initiative, the program has now been expanded to the Top-10,000 program in the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015). The Top-10,000 program covers roughly 15,000 industrial enterprises, or about two-thirds of China s total energy consumption. Implementing energy audit systems and conducting industrial energy efficiency assessments are key requirements of the Top-10,000 program. Previous research done by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has shown that there is a significant potential for improvement in energy assessment practices and applications in China. Issues such as lack of long term policy mechanisms, insufficient motivation for industrial enterprises, limited technical scope of energy assessments, and lack of systematic standardization have been identified. Through the support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. State Department (with additional co-funding from the Energy Foundation China), LBNL, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Institute for Sustainable Communities (ISC), and DOE Energy Experts worked collaboratively with Chinese local organizations and conducted a series of industrial energy efficiency assessment demonstrations in selected Chinese industrial plants. The project aimed to not only introduce standardized methodologies and tools for energy assessments, but also to bring the systems approach for energy system analysis to the Top 10,000 enterprises. Through the project, five energy system assessments were conducted, and more than 300 Chinese experts from local energy conservation centers, universities, research organizations, energy service companies, and plant engineers were trained. This paper begins by introducing China s national energy intensity and carbon intensity reduction targets. Then, this paper explains the development of Top 10,000 program, including program requirements, the method for target allocation, key supporting policies, as well as challenges in implementing the program. By focusing on a process heating energy system assessment conducted in a Chinese steel mill, this paper presents an example of an energy system assessment conducted on steel reheating furnaces, including overall energy efficiency levels, areas of heat loss, and the potential for energy savings. In addition, the paper provides energy-savings recommendations that were identified during the assessment, as well as potential energy and energy costs savings. To conclude, this paper presents key findings that could further improve the Top 10,000 program by implementing a systems approach for energy assessments.

China Energy Efficiency↗

Assessing Energy Efficiency Opportunities in US Industrial and Commercial Building Motor Systems

In 2002, the United States Department of Energy (USDOE) published an energy efficiency assessment of U.S. industrial sector motor systems titled United States Industrial Electric Motor Systems Market Opportunities Assessment. The assessment advanced motor system efficiency by providing a greater understanding of the energy consumption, use characteristics, and energy efficiency improvement potential of industrial sector motor systems in the U.S. Since 2002, regulations such as Minimum Energy Performance Standards, cost reductions for motor system components such as variable frequency drives, system-integrated motor-driven equipment, and awareness programs for motor system energy efficiency have changed the landscape of U.S. motor system energy consumption. To capture the new landscape, the USDOE has initiated a three-year Motor System Market Assessment (MSMA), led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The MSMA will assess the energy consumption, operational and maintenance characteristics, and efficiency improvement opportunity of U.S. industrial sector and commercial building motor systems. As part of the MSMA, a significant effort is currently underway to conduct field assessments of motor systems from a sample of facilities representative of U.S. commercial and industrial motor system energy consumption. The Field Assessment Plan used for these assessments builds on recent LBNL research presented at EEMODS 2011 and EEMODS 2013 using methods for characterizing and determining regional motor system energy efficiency opportunities. This paper provides an update on the development and progress of the MSMA, focusing on the Field Assessment Plan and the framework for assessing the global supply chain for emerging motors and drive technologies.

Rao, Prakash↗

Adapting Community Impact Assessment for Nuclear Waste Transportation - 17273

As the United States develops a consent-based approach for an interim storage facility for nuclear waste, it is clear that the impacts on corridor communities will have to be assessed. The Yucca Mountain Program established a requirement for assessing impacts on communities. In order to achieve consent, impact assessment will have to be part of a transportation plan. Conventional transportation planners have developed a process for assessing the impacts on communities that occur as the result of transportation projects. This Process-Community Impact Assessment (CIA) has been widely adopted throughout the United States. This paper suggests ways in which CIA can be adapted from conventional transportation planning to the problem of spent nuclear fuel. This paper uses the CIA as 'an iterative process to evaluate the effects of a transportation action on a community and its quality of life.' This paper describes the community impact assessment process as it would be adapted for spent nuclear fuel transportation. The paper lists common impacts attributable to transportation projects and whether or not these would be applicable for this process. The paper describes the legal basis for assessing these impacts and shows how early commencement of an impact process helps ensure that transportation policies and investments include the concerns of affected communities. Conducting an assessment of this type leads to an understanding of the relationship between transportation actions and the community. Such an understanding can minimize conflict and resolve potential problems. Underlying this process is the idea that assessments that include the active participation of affected parties, leads to better decisions and greater acceptance of projects, while enhancing agency credibility. The paper defines 'community' as it applies in this case and describes the process that can be used to perform an assessment of this type. The paper concludes that a process of this type can facilitate a successful siting decision making and accelerate community acceptance that is necessary for a successful transportation program. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗