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DOE OSTI2020

An Integrated Platform for Collaborative Data Analytics

While collaboration among data scientists is a key to organizational productivity, data analysts face significant barriers to achieving this end, including data sharing, accessing and configuring the required computational environment, and a unified method of sharing knowledge. Each of these barriers to collaboration is related to the fundamental question of knowledge management “how can organizations use knowledge more effectively?”. In this paper, we consider the problem of knowledge management in collaborative data analytics and present ShareAL, an integrated knowledge management platform, as a solution to that problem. The ShareAL platform consists of three core components: a full stack web application, a dashboard for analyzing streaming data and a High Performance Computing (HPC) cluster for performing real time analysis. Prior research has not applied knowledge management to collaborative analytics or developed a platform with the same capabilities as ShareAL. ShareAL overcomes the barriers data scientists face to collaboration by providing intuitive sharing of data and analytics via the web application, a shared computing environment via the HPC cluster and knowledge sharing and collaboration via a real time messaging application.

Oesch, T↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analytic Thermal Model of an Optical Fiber Based Gamma Thermometer and its Application in a University Research Reactor

This paper describes and validates, by comparison with numerical modeling results, an analytical model of thermal transport in an optical fiber based gamma thermometer (OFBGT) that is appropriate for use in university research reactors. The maximum temperature difference between the thermal mass and the outer sheath ( Δ T ) for the OFBGT design that we have considered is approximately 50 ∘ C , for the OFBGT in the Central Irradiation Facility of the Ohio State University Research Reactor (OSURR) with the reactor operating at full power (450 kW). The maximum value of Δ T that is predicted by the analytic model for the OFBGT design is smaller by approximately 1.1 °C than the value of Δ T which is predicted by the numerical model, for the same OFBGT design, but including all the details of the design. We have used the analytical model of thermal transport in an OFBGT to determine a normalized Modulation Transfer Function M T F ′ ( k ) ) for the OFBGT. We conclude that MTF ′ ( k OSU ) > 0.99 , where k OSU is the spatial frequency for the axial dependence of the reactor power distribution in the

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Learning Global Proliferation Expertise Evolution Using AI-Driven Analytics and Public Information

Detecting and anticipating global proliferation expertise and capability evolution from unstructured, noisy, and incomplete public data streams is a highly desired, but extremely challenging task. Here, in this article, we present our pioneering data-driven approach to support the non-proliferation mission to detect and explain the evolution of proliferation expertise and capability development globally from terabytes of publicly available information (PAI), focusing on our knowledge extraction pipeline and descriptive analytics. We first discuss how we fuse nine open-source data streams, including multilingual data, to convert 4 TB of unstructured data to structured knowledge and encode dynamically evolving proliferation expertise representations—content and context graphs. For this, we rely on natural language processing (NLP) and deep learning (DL) models to perform information extraction, topic modeling, and distributed text representation (aka embedding) learning. We then present interactive, usable, and explainable descriptive analytics to refine domain knowledge and present it in a human-understandable form. Finally, we introduce future work avenues that will leverage our dynamic knowledge representations and descriptive analytics to enable predictive and prescriptive inferences to achieve real-time domain understanding and contextual reasoning about global proliferation expertise and capability evolution.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2024

Generalized Analytical Estimation of Sensitivity Matrices in Unbalanced Distribution Networks

Fast and accurate estimation of sensitivity matrices is significant for the enhancement of distribution system modeling and automation. Analytical estimations have mainly focused on voltage magnitude sensitivity to active/reactive power injections for unbalanced networks with Wye-connected loads and neglecting DERs' smart inverter functionality. Hence, this paper enhances the scope of analytical estimation of sensitivity matrices for unbalanced networks with 1- Φ, 2- Φ, and 3- Φ Delta/Wye-connected loads, DERs with smart inverter functionality, and substation/line step-voltage regulators (SVR). A composite bus model comprising of DER, Delta- and Wye-connected load is proposed to represent a generic distribution bus, which can be simplified to load, PV, or voltage-controlled bus as required. Furthermore, the proposed matrix-based analytical method consolidates voltage magnitude and angle sensitivity to active/reactive power injection and tap-position of all SVRs into a single algorithm. Extensive case studies on IEEE and EPRI networks show the accuracy and wide scope of the proposed algorithm compared to the existing benchmark method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Beyond Visual Analytics: Human-Machine Teaming for AI-Driven Data Sensemaking

"Detect the expected, discover the unexpected" was the founding principle of the field of visual analytics. This mantra implies that human stakeholders, like a domain expert or data analyst, could leverage visual analytics techniques to seek answers to known unknowns and discover unknown unknowns in the course of the data sensemaking process. We argue that in the era of AI-driven automation, we need to recalibrate the roles of humans and machines (e.g., a machine learning model) as teammates. We posit that by realizing human-machine teams as a stakeholder unit, we can better achieve the best of both worlds: automation transparency and human reasoning efficacy. However, this also increases the burden on analysts and domain experts towards performing more cognitively demanding tasks than what they are used to. In this paper, we reflect on the complementary roles in a human-machine team through the lens of cognitive psychology and map them to existing and emerging research in the visual analytics community. We discuss open questions and challenges around the nature of human agency and analyze the shared responsibilities in human-machine teams.

Sensemaking, human-machine teaming, agency, artifi↗

DOE OSTI2019

Analytic Estimation Method of Forced Oscillation Amplitude Under Stochastic Continuous Disturbances

This paper proposes an analytic method for the amplitude estimation of the forced oscillation under stochastic continuous disturbances (SCDs). There is considerable interest in the integration of intermittent renewable energy resources into a power system, which leads to the power system in an environment with SCDs. Thus, the forced oscillation issues under SCDs are of concern. In this paper, the SCDs are described as continuous-time stochastic processes, and then the systems under SCDs are modeled by stochastic differential algebraic equations. Furthermore, by employing stochastic theory, an efficient analytic method for calculating the statistics of system states during the forced oscillation is proposed. Moreover, a novel forced oscillation phenomenon, which presents system states oscillate with stationary distributions under SCDs, is clearly characterized and theoretically explained. Based on the proposed analytic method, a scheme is put forth to estimate amplitudes of system states during forced oscillation under SCDs. Finally, compared to Monte Carlo simulation, the proposed scheme has two significant advantages. First, the proposed scheme offers a fast and effective solution for engineering applications. Second, the impact mechanism of SCDs on forced oscillation in power system is clearer, by the proposed scheme.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Methods, software and datasets to verify DVH calculations against analytical values: Twenty years late(r)

Purpose: The authors designed data, methods, and metrics that can serve as a standard, independent of any software package, to evaluate dose-volume histogram (DVH) calculation accuracy and detect limitations. The authors use simple geometrical objects at different orientations combined with dose grids of varying spatial resolution with linear 1D dose gradients; when combined, ground truth DVH curves can be calculated analytically in closed form to serve as the absolute standards. Methods: DICOM RT structure sets containing a small sphere, cylinder, and cone were created programmatically with axial plane spacing varying from 0.2 to 3 mm. Cylinders and cones were modeled in two different orientations with respect to the IEC 1217 Y axis. The contours were designed to stringently but methodically test voxelation methods required for DVH. Synthetic RT dose files were generated with 1D linear dose gradient and with grid resolution varying from 0.4 to 3 mm. Two commercial DVH algorithms—PINNACLE (Philips Radiation Oncology Systems) and PlanIQ (Sun Nuclear Corp.)—were tested against analytical values using custom, noncommercial analysis software. In Test 1, axial contour spacing was constant at 0.2 mm while dose grid resolution varied. In Tests 2 and 3, the dose grid resolution was matched to varying subsampled axial contours with spacing of 1, 2, and 3 mm, and difference analysis and metrics were employed: (1) histograms of the accuracy of various DVH parameters (total volume, D{sub max}, D{sub min}, and doses to % volume: D99, D95, D5, D1, D0.03 cm{sup 3}) and (2) volume errors extracted along the DVH curves were generated and summarized in tabular and graphical forms. Results: In Test 1, PINNACLE produced 52 deviations (15%) while PlanIQ produced 5 (1.5%). In Test 2, PINNACLE and PlanIQ differed from analytical by >3% in 93 (36%) and 18 (7%) times, respectively. Excluding D{sub min} and D{sub max} as least clinically relevant would result in 32 (15%) vs 5 (2%) scored deviations for PINNACLE vs PlanIQ in Test 1, while Test 2 would yield 53 (25%) vs 17 (8%). In Test 3, statistical analyses of volume errors extracted continuously along the curves show PINNACLE to have more errors and higher variability (relative to PlanIQ), primarily due to PINNACLE’s lack of sufficient 3D grid supersampling. Another major driver for PINNACLE errors is an inconsistency in implementation of the “end-capping”; the additional volume resulting from expanding superior and inferior contours halfway to the next slice is included in the total volume calculation, but dose voxels in this expanded volume are excluded from the DVH. PlanIQ had fewer deviations, and most were associated with a rotated cylinder modeled by rectangular axial contours; for coarser axial spacing, the limited number of cross-sectional rectangles hinders the ability to render the true structure volume. Conclusions: The method is applicable to any DVH-calculating software capable of importing DICOM RT structure set and dose objects (the authors’ examples are available for download). It includes a collection of tests that probe the design of the DVH algorithm, measure its accuracy, and identify failure modes. Merits and applicability of each test are discussed.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-378: Evaluation of An Analytical Model for the Inter-Seed Attenuation Effect in 103-Pd Multi-Seed Implant Brachytherapy

Purpose: Brachytherapy treatment planning systems based on TG-43 protocol calculate the dose in water and neglects the heterogeneity effect of seeds in multi-seed implant brachytherapy. In this research, the accuracy of a novel analytical model that we propose for the inter-seed attenuation effect (ISA) for 103-Pd seed model is evaluated. Methods: In the analytical model, dose perturbation due to the ISA effect for each seed in an LDR multi-seed implant for 103-Pd is calculated by assuming that the seed of interest is active and the other surrounding seeds are inactive. The cumulative dosimetric effect of all seeds is then summed using the superposition principle. The model is based on pre Monte Carlo (MC) simulated 3D kernels of the dose perturbations caused by the ISA effect. The cumulative ISA effect due to multiple surrounding seeds is obtained by a simple multiplication of the individual ISA effect by each seed, the effect of which is determined by the distance from the seed of interest. This novel algorithm is then compared with full MC water-based simulations (FMCW). Results: The results show that the dose perturbation model we propose is in excellent agreement with the FMCW values for a case with three seeds separated by 1 cm. The average difference of the model and the FMCW simulations was less than 8%±2%. Conclusion: Using the proposed novel analytical ISA effect model, one could expedite the corrections due to the ISA dose perturbation effects during permanent seed 103-Pd brachytherapy planning with minimal increase in time since the model is based on multiplications and superposition. This model can be applied, in principle, to any other brachytherapy seeds. Further work is necessary to validate this model on a more complicated geometry as well.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-422: Fast Analytical Beamlet Optimization for Volumetric Intensity-Modulated Arc Therapy

Purpose: To implement a fast optimization algorithm on CPU/GPU heterogeneous computing platform and to obtain an optimal fluence for a given target dose distribution from the pre-calculated beamlets in an analytical approach. Methods: The 2D target dose distribution was modeled as an n-dimensional vector and estimated by a linear combination of independent basis vectors. The basis set was composed of the pre-calculated beamlet dose distributions at every 6 degrees of gantry angle and the cost function was set as the magnitude square of the vector difference between the target and the estimated dose distribution. The optimal weighting of the basis, which corresponds to the optimal fluence, was obtained analytically by the least square method. Those basis vectors with a positive weighting were selected for entering into the next level of optimization. Totally, 7 levels of optimization were implemented in the study.Ten head-and-neck and ten prostate carcinoma cases were selected for the study and mapped to a round water phantom with a diameter of 20cm. The Matlab computation was performed in a heterogeneous programming environment with Intel i7 CPU and NVIDIA Geforce 840M GPU. Results: In all selected cases, the estimated dose distribution was in a good agreement with the given target dose distribution and their correlation coefficients were found to be in the range of 0.9992 to 0.9997. Their root-mean-square error was monotonically decreasing and converging after 7 cycles of optimization. The computation took only about 10 seconds and the optimal fluence maps at each gantry angle throughout an arc were quickly obtained. Conclusion: An analytical approach is derived for finding the optimal fluence for a given target dose distribution and a fast optimization algorithm implemented on the CPU/GPU heterogeneous computing environment greatly reduces the optimization time.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-631: Preliminary Results for Analytical Investigation Into Effects of ArcCHECK Setup Errors

Purpose: As three-dimensional diode arrays increase in popularity for patient-specific quality assurance for intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), it is important to evaluate an array’s susceptibility to setup errors. The ArcCHECK phantom is set up by manually aligning its outside marks with the linear accelerator’s lasers and light-field. If done correctly, this aligns the ArcCHECK cylinder’s central axis (CAX) with the linear accelerator’s axis of rotation. However, this process is prone to error. This project has developed an analytical expression including a perturbation factor to quantify the effect of shifts. Methods: The ArcCHECK is set up by aligning its machine marks with either the sagittal room lasers or the light-field of the linear accelerator at gantry zero (IEC). ArcCHECK has sixty-six evenly-spaced SunPoint diodes aligned radially in a ring 14.4 cm from CAX. The detector response function (DRF) was measured and combined with inverse-square correction to develop an analytical expression for output. The output was calculated using shifts of 0 (perfect alignment), +/−1, +/−2 and +/−5 mm. The effect on a series of simple inputs was determined: unity, 1-D ramp, steps, and hat-function to represent uniform field, wedge, evenly-spaced modulation, and single sharp modulation, respectively. Results: Geometric expressions were developed with perturbation factor included to represent shifts. DRF was modeled using sixth-degree polynomials with correlation coefficient 0.9997. The output was calculated using simple inputs such as unity, 1-D ramp, steps, and hat-function, with perturbation factors of: 0, +/−1, +/−2 and +/−5 mm. Discrepancies have been observed, but large fluctuations have been somewhat mitigated by aliasing arising from discrete diode placement. Conclusion: An analytical expression with perturbation factors was developed to estimate the impact of setup errors on an ArcCHECK phantom. Presently, this has been applied to simple functions, but is being developed to handle more realistic clinical cases.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2016

Modification and validation of an analytical source model for external beam radiotherapy Monte Carlo dose calculations

Purpose: A dose calculation tool, which combines the accuracy of the dose planning method (DPM) Monte Carlo code and the versatility of a practical analytical multisource model, which was previously reported has been improved and validated for the Varian 6 and 10 MV linear accelerators (linacs). The calculation tool can be used to calculate doses in advanced clinical application studies. One shortcoming of current clinical trials that report dose from patient plans is the lack of a standardized dose calculation methodology. Because commercial treatment planning systems (TPSs) have their own dose calculation algorithms and the clinical trial participant who uses these systems is responsible for commissioning the beam model, variation exists in the reported calculated dose distributions. Today’s modern linac is manufactured to tight specifications so that variability within a linac model is quite low. The expectation is that a single dose calculation tool for a specific linac model can be used to accurately recalculate dose from patient plans that have been submitted to the clinical trial community from any institution. The calculation tool would provide for a more meaningful outcome analysis. Methods: The analytical source model was described by a primary point source, a secondary extra-focal source, and a contaminant electron source. Off-axis energy softening and fluence effects were also included. The additions of hyperbolic functions have been incorporated into the model to correct for the changes in output and in electron contamination with field size. A multileaf collimator (MLC) model is included to facilitate phantom and patient dose calculations. An offset to the MLC leaf positions was used to correct for the rudimentary assumed primary point source. Results: Dose calculations of the depth dose and profiles for field sizes 4 × 4 to 40 × 40 cm agree with measurement within 2% of the maximum dose or 2 mm distance to agreement (DTA) for 95% of the data points tested. The model was capable of predicting the depth of the maximum dose within 1 mm. Anthropomorphic phantom benchmark testing of modulated and patterned MLCs treatment plans showed agreement to measurement within 3% in target regions using thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLD). Using radiochromic film normalized to TLD, a gamma criteria of 3% of maximum dose and 2 mm DTA was applied with a pass rate of least 85% in the high dose, high gradient, and low dose regions. Finally, recalculations of patient plans using DPM showed good agreement relative to a commercial TPS when comparing dose volume histograms and 2D dose distributions. Conclusions: A unique analytical source model coupled to the dose planning method Monte Carlo dose calculation code has been modified and validated using basic beam data and anthropomorphic phantom measurement. While this tool can be applied in general use for a particular linac model, specifically it was developed to provide a singular methodology to independently assess treatment plan dose distributions from those clinical institutions participating in National Cancer Institute trials.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-TeP1-02: Analytical Stopping Power and Range Parameterization for Therapeutic Energy Intervals

Purpose: To develop a simple, analytic parameterization of stopping power and range, which covers a wide energy interval and is applicable to many species of projectile ions and target materials, with less than 15% disagreement in linear stopping power and 1 mm in range. Methods: The new parameterization was required to be analytically integrable from stopping power to range, and continuous across the range interval of 1 µm to 50 cm. The model parameters were determined from stopping power and range data for hydrogen, carbon, iron, and uranium ions incident on water, carbon, aluminum, lead and copper. Stopping power and range data was taken from SRIM. A stochastic minimization algorithm was used to find model parameters, with 10 data points per energy decade. Additionally, fitting was performed with 2 and 26 data points per energy decade to test the model’s robustness to sparse Results: 6 free parameters were sufficient to cover the therapeutic energy range for each projectile ion species (e.g. 1 keV – 300 MeV for protons). The model agrees with stopping power and range data well, with less than 9% relative stopping power difference and 0.5 mm difference in range. As few as, 4 bins per decade were required to achieve comparable fitting results to the full data set. Conclusion: This study successfully demonstrated that a simple analytic function can be used to fit the entire energy interval of therapeutic ion beams of hydrogen and heavier elements. Advantages of this model were the small number (6) of free parameters, and that the model calculates both stopping power and range. Applications of this model include GPU-based dose calculation algorithms and Monte Carlo simulations, where available memory is limited. This work was supported in part by a research agreement between United States Naval Academy and Louisiana State University: Contract No N00189-13-P-0786. In addition, this work was accepted for presentation at the American Nuclear Society Annual Meeting 2016.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2016

TU-H-CAMPUS-IeP1-05: A Framework for the Analytic Calculation of Patient-Specific Dose Distribution Due to CBCT Scan for IGRT

Purpose: To investigate the feasibility of an analytic framework to estimate patients’ absorbed dose distribution owing to daily cone-beam CT scan for image-guided radiation treatment. Methods: To compute total absorbed dose distribution, we separated the framework into primary and scattered dose calculations. Using the source parameters such as voltage, current, and bowtie filtration, for the primary dose calculation, we simulated the forward projection from the source to each voxel of an imaging object including some inhomogeneous inserts. Then we calculated the primary absorbed dose at each voxel based on the absorption probability deduced from the HU values and Beer’s law. In sequence, all voxels constructing the phantom were regarded as secondary sources to radiate scattered photons for scattered dose calculation. Details of forward projection were identical to that of the previous step. The secondary source intensities were given by using scatter-to- primary ratios provided by NIST. In addition, we compared the analytically calculated dose distribution with their Monte Carlo simulation results. Results: The suggested framework for absorbed dose estimation successfully provided the primary and secondary dose distributions of the phantom. Moreover, our analytic dose calculations and Monte Carlo calculations were well agreed each other even near the inhomogeneous inserts. Conclusion: This work indicated that our framework can be an effective monitor to estimate a patient’s exposure owing to cone-beam CT scan for image-guided radiation treatment. Therefore, we expected that the patient’s over-exposure during IGRT might be prevented by our framework.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bridging the Gap between Analytical and Microbial Sciences in Microbiome Research

Metabolites from the microbiome influence human, animal, and environmental health, but the diversity and functional roles of these compounds have only begun to be elucidated. Comprehensively characterizing these molecules are significant challenges, as it requires expertise in analytical methods, such as mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, skills that not many traditional microbiologists or microbial ecologists possess. This creates a gap between microbiome scientists that want to understand the role of microbial metabolites in microbiome systems and the skills required to generate and interpret complex metabolomics data sets. To bridge this gap, microbiome scientists should engage analytical chemists to best understand the underlying chemical principles of the data. Conversely, analytical scientists are encouraged to engage with microbiome scientists to better understand the biological questions being asked with metabolomics and to best communicate its intricacies. Better communication across the chemistry/biology disciplines will further reveal the “dark matter” within microbiomes that maintain healthy humans and environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analytic solutions of the DGLAP evolution and theoretical uncertainties

The energy dependence for the singlet sector of Parton Distributions Functions (PDFs) is described by an entangled pair of ordinary linear differential equations. Although there are no exact analytic solutions, it is possible to provide approximated results depending on the assumptions and the methodology adopted. These results differ in their sub-leading, neglected terms and ultimately they are associated with different treatments of the theoretical uncertainties. In this work, a novel analytic approach in Mellin space is presented and a new methodology for obtaining closed and exponentiated analytic solutions is devised. Different results for the DGLAP evolution at Next-Leading-Order are compared, discussing advantages and disadvantages for each solution. The generalizations to higher orders are addressed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analytical and Numerical Analysis of Lithium Plating Onset in Single and Bilayer Graphite Electrodes during Fast Charging

Lithium plating is commonly observed in anodes charged at fast rates, and can lead to capacity loss and battery safety issues. The increased risk of plating has been attributed to transport limitations, and architectured electrodes may reduce plating risk. However, while theoretical studies have shown that reaction non-uniformity arises due to interplay of transport limitations, anode open circuit voltage behavior and reaction kinetics, its effect on lithium plating has not been studied. We use analytic and numerical simulations to predict onset of plating in graphite anode half-cells at high C-rates and demonstrate how anodes with layered porosities can delay plating. Simplified analytical models identify trends for plating onset and predictions are calibrated against numerical models. A calibrated numerical model of graphite demonstrates qualitative agreement with analytical model predictions. This reaction inhomogeneity mechanism occurs in the absence of lithium ion depletion, indicating that these mechanisms may contribute to capacity loss independently or simultaneously. A bilayer model of graphite exhibits delayed plating onset, and an optimization procedure is presented. This theoretical work presents quantitative and mechanistic insight on how reaction inhomogenity affects lithium metal plating onset and can be used as a guide to engineer anodes resistant to lithium plating.

Mijailovic, Aleksandar S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Semi-analytic model of magnetized liner inertial fusion

The code that was developed is called SAMM (Semi-Analytic MagLIF Model). In 2015, McBride and Slutz published all of the equations that are solved by the code in the original SAMM paper: R. D. McBride and S. A. Slutz, ?A semi-analytic model of magnetized liner inertial fusion?, Phys. Plasmas 22, 052708 (2015); http://doi.org/10.1063/1.4918953. The SAMM code is now implemented in both the MATLAB and Python programming languages. Students from multiple universities have requested copies of the code so that they can become more familiar with the MagLIF concept. We would like to seek an open-source solution. There is no market value to this code, as there are plenty of more sophisticated simulation codes already available; SAMM is merely a simplified model that is purely for educational purposes. In fact, at least one graduate student (from the University of California, San Diego) has already implemented and published his own modified version of the model: J. Narkis, H. U. Rahman, J. C. Valenzuela, F. Conti, R. D. McBride, D. Venosa, and F. N. Beg, ?A semi-analytic model of gas-puff liner-on-target magneto-inertial fusion?, Phys. Plasmas 26, 032708 (2019); https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5086056. SAND2020-12244 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Moore, Thomas↗

DOE OSTI2016

Clausius–Clapeyron Scaling of CAPE from Analytical Solutions to RCE

By deriving analytical solutions to radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), it is shown mathematically that convective available potential energy (CAPE) exhibits Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling over a wide range of surface temperatures up to 310 K. Above 310 K, CAPE deviates from CC scaling and even decreases with warming at very high surface temperatures. At the surface temperature of the current tropics, the analytical solutions predict that CAPE increases at a rate of about 6%-7% per kelvin of surface warming. The analytical solutions also provide insight on how the tropopause height and stratospheric humidity change with warming. Changes in the tropopause height exhibit CC scaling, with the tropopause rising by about 400 m per kelvin of surface warming at current tropical temperatures and by about 1-2 km K -1 at surface temperatures in the range of 320-340 K. The specific humidity of the stratosphere exhibits super-CC scaling at temperatures moderately warmer than the current tropics. With a surface temperature of the current tropics, the stratospheric specific humidity increases by about 6% per kelvin of surface warming, but the rate of increase is as high as 30% K -1 at warmer surface temperatures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗