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At least 469 records · Page 26

Updated Economic Model for Estimation of GDP Losses in the MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code RDEIM Model Report for MACCS v4.2

This report updates the Regional Disruption Economic Impact Model (RDEIM) GDP-based model described in Bixler et al. (2020) used in the MACCS accident consequence analysis code. MACCS is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. It is also used by international organizations, both reactor owners and regulators. It is intended and most commonly used for hypothetical accidents that could potentially occur in the future rather than to evaluate past accidents or to provide emergency response during an ongoing accident. It is designed to support probabilistic risk and consequence analyses and is used by the NRC, U.S. nuclear licensees, the Department of Energy, and international vendors, licensees, and regulators. The update of the RDEIM model in version 4.2 expresses the national recovery calculation explicitly, rather than implicitly as in the previous version. The calculation of the total national GDP losses remains unchanged. However, anticipated gains from recovery are now allocated across all the GDP loss types – direct, indirect, and induced – whereas in version 4.1, all recovery gains were accounted for in the indirect loss type. To achieve this, we’ve introduced new methodology to streamline and simplify the calculation of all types of losses and recovery. In addition, RDEIM includes other kinds of losses, including tangible wealth. This includes loss of tangible assets (e.g., depreciation) and accident expenditures (e.g., decontamination). This document describes the updated RDEIM economic model and provides examples of loss and recovery calculation, results analysis, and presentation. Changes to the tangible cost calculation and accident expenditures are described in section 2.2. The updates to the RDEIM input-output (I-O) model are not expected to affect the final benchmark results Bixler et al. (2020), as the RDEIM calculation for the total national GDP losses remains unchanged. The reader is referred to the MACCS revision history for other cost modelling changes since version 4.0 that may affect the benchmark. RDEIM has its roots in a code developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security to estimate short-term losses from natural and manmade accidents, called the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct). This model was adapted and modified for MACCS. It is based on I-O theory, which is widely used in economic modeling. It accounts for direct losses to a disrupted region affected by an accident, indirect losses to the national economy due to disruption of the supply chain, and induced losses from reduced spending by displaced workers. RDEIM differs from REAcct in in its treatment and estimation of indirect loss multipliers, elimination of double-counting associated with inter-industry trade in the affected area, and that it is intended to be used for extended periods that can occur from a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi site in Japan. Most input-output models do not account for economic adaptation and recovery, and in this regard RDEIM differs from its parent, REAcct, because it allows for a user-definable national recovery period. Implementation of a recovery period was one of several recommendations made by an independent peer review panel to ensure that RDEIM is state-of-practice. For this and several other reasons, RDEIM differs from REAcct.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Optimal Control Modification Adaptive Law for Time-Scale Separated Systems

Recently a new optimal control modification has been introduced that can achieve robust adaptation with a large adaptive gain without incurring high-frequency oscillations as with the standard model-reference adaptive control. This modification is based on an optimal control formulation to minimize the L2 norm of the tracking error. The optimal control modification adaptive law results in a stable adaptation in the presence of a large adaptive gain. This study examines the optimal control modification adaptive law in the context of a system with a time scale separation resulting from a fast plant with a slow actuator. A singular perturbation analysis is performed to derive a modification to the adaptive law by transforming the original system into a reduced-order system in slow time. A model matching conditions in the transformed time coordinate results in an increase in the actuator command that effectively compensate for the slow actuator dynamics. Simulations demonstrate effectiveness of the method.

Nguyen, Nhan T.↗

Implementation and Evaluation of Multiple Adaptive Control Technologies for a Generic Transport Aircraft Simulation

Presented here is the evaluation of multiple adaptive control technologies for a generic transport aircraft simulation. For this study, seven model reference adaptive control (MRAC) based technologies were considered. Each technology was integrated into an identical dynamic-inversion control architecture and tuned using a methodology based on metrics and specific design requirements. Simulation tests were then performed to evaluate each technology s sensitivity to time-delay, flight condition, model uncertainty, and artificially induced cross-coupling. The resulting robustness and performance characteristics were used to identify potential strengths, weaknesses, and integration challenges of the individual adaptive control technologies

Campbell, Stefan F.↗

Development of a wind turbine model and simulation platform using an acausal approach: Multiphysics modeling, validation, and control

This article presents the development of the Control-oriented, Reconfigurable, and Acausal Floating Turbine Simulator (CRAFTS). CRAFTS has a modular, hierarchical model architecture that enables rapid and accurate simulation of wind turbines. The architecture facilitates the incorporation of model variants, and its system reconfiguration features help simulate multiple design variants. CRAFTS also supports the integration of models developed on a causality-free platform (e.g., Modelica®) with existing causal models. This article focuses on the validation of a land-based wind turbine models against OpenFAST, an industry-standard platform, for several test cases. Closed-loop scenarios are also tested using the standard ROSCO controller and compared against OpenFAST. In addition, a nonlinear controller developed in our prior work is also evaluated. The test cases demonstrate the user-friendly and computationally efficient capabilities of CRAFTS to facilitate control co-design, assist in incorporating multiphysics models, be adaptable to design variants, and allow for rapid simulations to validate models and evaluate controllers.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DeepShadows: Separating low surface brightness galaxies from artifacts using deep learning

Searches for low-surface-brightness galaxies (LSBGs) in galaxy surveys are plagued by the presence of a large number of artifacts (e.g., objects blended in the diffuse light from stars and galaxies, Galactic cirrus, star-forming regions in the arms of spiral galaxies, etc.) that have to be rejected through time consuming visual inspection. In future surveys, which are expected to collect hundreds of petabytes of data and detect billions of objects, such an approach will not be feasible. We investigate the use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for the problem of separating LSBGs from artifacts in survey images. We take advantage of the fact that we have available a large number of labeled LSBGs and artifacts from the Dark Energy Survey, that we use to train, validate, and test a CNN model. That model, which we call DeepShadows , achieves a test accuracy of 92.0%, a significant improvement relative to feature-based machine learning models. We also study the ability to use transfer learning to adapt this model to classify objects from the deeper Hyper-Suprime-Cam survey, and we show that after the model is retrained on a very small sample from the new survey, it can reach an accuracy of 87.6%. Finally, these results demonstrate that CNNs offer a very promising path in the quest to study the low-surface-brightness universe.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Investigation of finite element: ABC methods for electromagnetic field simulation

The mechanics of wave propagation in the presence of obstacles is of great interest in many branches of engineering and applied mathematics like electromagnetics, fluid dynamics, geophysics, seismology, etc. Such problems can be broadly classified into two categories: the bounded domain or the closed problem and the unbounded domain or the open problem. Analytical techniques have been derived for the simpler problems; however, the need to model complicated geometrical features, complex material coatings and fillings, and to adapt the model to changing design parameters have inevitably tilted the balance in favor of numerical techniques. The modeling of closed problems presents difficulties primarily in proper meshing of the interior region. However, problems in unbounded domains pose a unique challenge to computation, since the exterior region is inappropriate for direct implementation of numerical techniques. A large number of solutions have been proposed but only a few have stood the test of time and experiment. The goal of this thesis is to develop an efficient and reliable partial differential equation technique to model large three dimensional scattering problems in electromagnetics.

Chatterjee, A.↗

A Distributed Model Identification Algorithm for Multi-Agent Systems: Preprint

In this study, we investigate agent-based approach for system model identification with emphasis on power distribution system applications. Departing from conventional practices of relying on historical data for offline model identification, we adopt online update approach utilizing real-time data by employing the latest data points for gradient computation. This methodology offers advantages including a large reduction in the communication network's bandwidth requirements by minimizing the data exchanged at each iteration and enabling the model to adapt in real-time to disturbances. Furthermore, we extend our model identification process from linear frameworks to more complex non-linear convex models. This extension is validated through numerical studies demonstrating improved control performance for a synthetic IEEE test case.

data-driven control↗

Robust Optimal Adaptive Control Method with Large Adaptive Gain

In the presence of large uncertainties, a control system needs to be able to adapt rapidly to regain performance. Fast adaptation is referred to the implementation of adaptive control with a large adaptive gain to reduce the tracking error rapidly. However, a large adaptive gain can lead to high-frequency oscillations which can adversely affect robustness of an adaptive control law. A new adaptive control modification is presented that can achieve robust adaptation with a large adaptive gain without incurring high-frequency oscillations as with the standard model-reference adaptive control. The modification is based on the minimization of the Y2 norm of the tracking error, which is formulated as an optimal control problem. The optimality condition is used to derive the modification using the gradient method. The optimal control modification results in a stable adaptation and allows a large adaptive gain to be used for better tracking while providing sufficient stability robustness. Simulations were conducted for a damaged generic transport aircraft with both standard adaptive control and the adaptive optimal control modification technique. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed modification in tracking a reference model while maintaining a sufficient time delay margin.

Nguyen, Nhan T.↗

Experimental study of robustness in adaptive control for large flexible structures

An experimental study is performed to investigate the robustness of model reference adaptive control for the large flexible structures control application. The main nonidealities of concern are unmodeled dynamics, input saturation, and time delay effects (here, actuator and sensor dynamics are lumped into the last item for convenience). This study focuses on the robustness with respect to input saturation and time delay effects, since robustness to unmodeled dynamics is inherent to the basic algorithm and has been demonstrated experimentally elsewhere.

Ih, Che-Hang Charles↗

Directed Energy Deposition Process Modeling, Validation, and Process-Informed Optimization

The directed energy deposition (DED) process, one of the most popular additive manufacturing techniques in use today, involves various complex physical mechanisms that are not yet well understood. In this regard, computational tools show promise for elucidating the manufacturing process and enabling nondestructive performance evaluations of manufactured parts. To better control and optimize the DED process?thereby improving the manufactured product? the present work develops and demonstrates a novel artificial intelligence (AI)-based process control and optimization technique. Specifically, a geometry-free thermo-mechanical model with adaptive subdomain construction is developed to accurately capture the material?s thermo-mechanical response under cyclical reheating and high cooling rates [1]. The model is demonstrated and validated with experimental measurements, in light of various geometries and processing parameters. Moreover, based on this thermo-mechanical model, a physics-informed reduced-order model is developed to enable quick predictions of the temperature field at every time step. Furthermore, an AI-based controller is developed that can adapt to the ever-changing system states by automatically adjusting the manufacturing process parameters. This entire work is based on the open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) [2] and its recent integration with Libtorch (the C++ frontend of PyTorch [3]). The combined development of the adaptive material deposition scheme, thermo-mechanical model, associated reduced-order model, and AI-based process controller carries great potential for improving advanced manufacturing processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Improving robustness for model discerning synthesis process of uranium oxide with unsupervised domain adaptation

The quantitative characterization of surface structures captured in scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images has proven to be effective for discerning provenance of an unknown nuclear material. Recently, many works have taken advantage of the powerful performance of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to provide faster and more consistent characterization of surface structures. However, one inherent limitation of CNNs is their degradation in performance when encountering discrepancy between training and test datasets, which limits their use widely. The common discrepancy in an SEM image dataset occurs at low-level image information due to user-bias in selecting acquisition parameters and microscopes from different manufacturers. Therefore, in this study, we present a domain adaptation framework to improve robustness of CNNs against the discrepancy in low-level image information. Furthermore, our proposed approach makes use of only unlabeled test samples to adapt a pretrained model, which is more suitable for nuclear forensics application for which obtaining both training and test datasets simultaneously is a challenge due to data sensitivity. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed approach effectively improves the performance of a model by at least 18% when encountering domain discrepancy, and can be deployed in many CNN architectures.

scanning electron microscopy↗

On Projection of Safe Operation for Grid-Following Inverters - Grid Parameter Estimation

This work investigates the projection of safe operation for grid-following inverters using a reference model. This work applies recursive-least square and model reference adaptive estimation techniques to estimate the unknown grid parameters. The estimated grid parameters are used in a dynamic reference model to project the safe operation of the inverter. This work also demonstrates that the controller nonlinearity and parameter variations can cause unsafe operations, such as unexpected instability at low power levels, namely hidden mode of instability. This instability issue in the nominal operating range may occur for given control parameters in a weak-grid condition. The dynamic reference model for PQ-controlled inverters is applied to analyze this instability issue using the estimated grid parameters. Both adaptive identification techniques can estimate the unknown parameters accurately, and the dynamic reference model can safeguard inverters from an unsafe operation, i.e., hidden instability, by examining the incoming new power setpoints before engaging them to the local controller. The findings are experimentally verified using a small-scale two-level 208 V, 5 kVA inverter feeding a 12 kW NHR 9410 power grid emulator.

Hossen, Tareq↗

SUHMO: an adaptive mesh refinement SUbglacial Hydrology MOdel v1.0

Abstract. Water flowing under ice sheets and glaciers can have a strong influence on ice dynamics, particularly through pressure changes, suggesting that a comprehensive ice sheet model should include the effect of basal hydrology. Modeling subglacial hydrology remains a challenge, however, mainly due to the range of spatial and temporal scales involved – from subglacial channels to vast subglacial lakes. Additionally, networks of subglacial drainage channels dynamically evolve over time. To address some of these challenges, we have developed an adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) model based on the Chombo software framework. We extend the model proposed by Sommers et al. (2018) with a small but significant change to accommodate the transition from unresolved to resolved flow features. We handle the strong nonlinearities present in the equations by resorting to an efficient nonlinear full approximation scheme multigrid (FAS-MG) algorithm. We outline the details of the algorithm and present convergence analysis results demonstrating its good performance. Additionally, we present results validating our approach, using test cases from the Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP) (de Fleurian et al., 2018). We finish by presenting a more complex, 100 km-by-100 km synthetic test case with peaks and valleys that we use to investigate the effective pressure distribution as the number of AMR levels increases. These preliminary results suggest that a minimum spatial resolution is needed to properly capture channel features, but additional work is required to precisely quantify this and its impact on accurately modeling the coupled ice sheet–hydrology system. The efficiency of our approach, relying on localized refinement, is also demonstrated. Future work will include coupling the SUbglacial Hydrology MOdel (SUHMO) with the BISICLES AMR ice sheet model (Cornford et al., 2013), both built on the same numerical framework.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Electric Water Heaters for Transactive Systems: Model Evaluations and Performance Quantification

Electric water heaters (EWHs) are opportune appliances for implementing demand-side control. EWH models serve as a fundamental step toward accurately estimating EWH flexibility potential and designing proper control strategies. Existing studies have adapted numerous modeling approaches in evaluating the potential of EWHs for a variety of grid applications. This paper presents an analytical study that evaluates the performance of state-of-art EWH models in terms of accuracy and computational complexity for adaptation in evaluation studies for the transactive system. The work proposes a transactive control strategy that optimally utilizes the thermal inertia of EWHs for providing grid services. Here, the performance of the control strategy and the impact of modeling accuracy is evaluated for device-level and feeder-level use cases using the IEEE 123 node test distribution system appropriately populated with EWHs. The simulation results illustrate the effectiveness of the control strategy in reducing the feeder demand during peak period by 13% and also quantities the impact of using simplified modeling approaches for determining the potential of EWHs for providing grid services.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Asymptotic Linearity of Optimal Control Modification Adaptive Law with Analytical Stability Margins

Optimal control modification has been developed to improve robustness to model-reference adaptive control. For systems with linear matched uncertainty, optimal control modification adaptive law can be shown by a singular perturbation argument to possess an outer solution that exhibits a linear asymptotic property. Analytical expressions of phase and time delay margins for the outer solution can be obtained. Using the gradient projection operator, a free design parameter of the adaptive law can be selected to satisfy stability margins.

Nguyen, Nhan T.↗

Small Scale Polygons and the History of Ground Ice on Mars

Recent progress on polygon modeling has focused on the diameter and surface relief that we expect of thermal-contraction polygons in martian permafrost. With this in mind, we developed a finite-element model of thermal-contraction-crack behavior in permafrost in a martian climate. This model was generated from a finite element code by Jay Melosh (called TECTON) originally developed for terrestrial and planetary crustal-deformation studies. We adapted this model to martian permafrost by including time (and temperature) dependent rheologies, boundary conditions, and isotropic thermal-contraction, as well as several small adaptations to a martian environment. We tested our model extensively, including comparison to an analytic solution of pre-fracture stress. We recently published an analysis of two potential sources of water for forming the recent gullies. In this work we first evaluated the potential for near-surface ground ice (in the top meter or so of soil) to melt under conditions of solar heating on sloped surfaces at high obliquity, utilizing both thermal and diffusion-based ground-ice-stability models; our results suggested that the ground ice will sublimate, and the ice table will recede to greater depths before the melting temperature can be reached. An exception can occur only for extremely salt-rich ice, depressing the freezing point.

Mellon, Michael T.↗

HAIMOS Ensemble Forecasts for Intra-day and Day- Ahead GHI, DNI and Ramps

The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid physics-based/data-driven forecast model to improve direct normal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI and GHI) prediction for horizons ranging from 1 to 72 hours. Project objectives also address key gaps in state-of-the-art solar forecasting: accurate probabilistic solar forecasts and the forecasting of large irradiance ramps (ramp onset and magnitude). The proposed model ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, determinist physics-based algorithms, and new-generation cloud cover products (high-resolution rapid refresh satellite images and Large Eddy Simulations). The result is the Hybrid Adaptive Input Model Objective Selection (HAIMOS) ensemble model. HAIMOS blends state of the art machine learning methodologies with physics-based models for cloud cover and cloud optical depth forecasts. The technical activities followed a two-pronged strategy. First, the preprocessing of data, the selection of inputs to the nonlinear approximators, the type of approximator and objective functions, and post-processing ensembling techniques included in HAIMOS were all optimized adaptively to find the best model for a specific goal (reduce DNI/GHI forecast error, improve the prediction of ramp onset, etc.). Second, a large effort was put in improving cloud identification and the forecast of cloud cover and cloud optical depth. To this end, new-generation cloud parametrization products were developed in this work. These include improved algorithms to assist in cloud identification, cloud classification and cloud parametrization from satellite images – three key factors in the accuracy of 1 to 6-hours irradiance forecasts and prediction of ramp onset. Furthermore, we also included cloud information extracted from high resolution rapid refresh satellite images (GOES-16) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). LES was used to model the atmosphere in detail over locations of interest and produce cloud optical depth forecasts. Once these data streams were validated, they were used as input data to the HAIMOS forecast. The model was developed using data from several climatologically distinct locations with potential for high solar penetration. In the last year of the project, we conducted a validation campaign according to the guidelines stipulated by the Topic Area 1 project as described in the FOA. This effort brings, for the first time, proven machine-learning methodologies for generating state-of-the-art solar forecasts interweaved with detailed physics-based models for cloud detection, and cloud optical depth forecasts. HAIMOS will generate accurate irradiance probabilistic forecast to assist in reducing solar generation prediction error. Globally optimized solar forecast models are more likely to impact solar energy stakeholders. The goal of this project was to increase the state-of-the-art forecast skill from their present values of 10 to 35%. At the end of the project, we achieved between 30% and 50% forecast skill across a wide range of horizons for both GHI and DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A study of application of remote sensing to river forecasting. Volume 1: Executive summary

A project is described whose goal was to define, implement and evaluate a pilot demonstration test to show the practicability of applying remotely sensed data to operational river forecasting in gaged or previously ungaged watersheds. A secondary objective was to provide NASA with documentation describing the computer programs that comprise the streamflow forecasting simulation model used. A computer-based simulation model was adapted to a streamflow forecasting application and implemented in an IBM System/360 Model 44 computer, operating in a dedicated mode, with operator interactive control through a Model 2250 keyboard/graphic CRT terminal. The test site whose hydrologic behavior was simulated is a small basin (365 square kilometers) designated Town Creek near Geraldine, Alabama.

Source record↗