Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “AUTOMATION”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 469 records · Page 26

Generative Representations for Automated Design of Robots

A method of automated design of complex, modular robots involves an evolutionary process in which generative representations of designs are used. The term generative representations as used here signifies, loosely, representations that consist of or include algorithms, computer programs, and the like, wherein encoded designs can reuse elements of their encoding and thereby evolve toward greater complexity. Automated design of robots through synthetic evolutionary processes has already been demonstrated, but it is not clear whether genetically inspired search algorithms can yield designs that are sufficiently complex for practical engineering. The ultimate success of such algorithms as tools for automation of design depends on the scaling properties of representations of designs. A nongenerative representation (one in which each element of the encoded design is used at most once in translating to the design) scales linearly with the number of elements. Search algorithms that use nongenerative representations quickly become intractable (search times vary approximately exponentially with numbers of design elements), and thus are not amenable to scaling to complex designs. Generative representations are compact representations and were devised as means to circumvent the above-mentioned fundamental restriction on scalability. In the present method, a robot is defined by a compact programmatic form (its generative representation) and the evolutionary variation takes place on this form. The evolutionary process is an iterative one, wherein each cycle consists of the following steps: 1. Generative representations are generated in an evolutionary subprocess. 2. Each generative representation is a program that, when compiled, produces an assembly procedure. 3. In a computational simulation, a constructor executes an assembly procedure to generate a robot. 4. A physical-simulation program tests the performance of a simulated constructed robot, evaluating the performance according to a fitness criterion to yield a figure of merit that is fed back into the evolutionary subprocess of the next iteration. In comparison with prior approaches to automated evolutionary design of robots, the use of generative representations offers two advantages: First, a generative representation enables the reuse of components in regular and hierarchical ways and thereby serves a systematic means of creating more complex modules out of simpler ones. Second, the evolved generative representation may capture intrinsic properties of the design problem, so that variations in the representations move through the design space more effectively than do equivalent variations in a nongenerative representation. This method has been demonstrated by using it to design some robots that move, variously, by walking, rolling, or sliding. Some of the robots were built (see figure). Although these robots are very simple, in comparison with robots designed by humans, their structures are more regular, modular, hierarchical, and complex than are those of evolved designs of comparable functionality synthesized by use of nongenerative representations.

Homby, Gregory S.↗

Automated Discovery and Modeling of Sequential Patterns Preceding Events of Interest

The integration of emerging data manipulation technologies has enabled a paradigm shift in practitioners' abilities to understand and anticipate events of interest in complex systems. Example events of interest include outbreaks of socio-political violence in nation-states. Rather than relying on human-centric modeling efforts that are limited by the availability of SMEs, automated data processing technologies has enabled the development of innovative automated complex system modeling and predictive analysis technologies. We introduce one such emerging modeling technology - the sequential pattern methodology. We have applied the sequential pattern methodology to automatically identify patterns of observed behavior that precede outbreaks of socio-political violence such as riots, rebellions and coups in nation-states. The sequential pattern methodology is a groundbreaking approach to automated complex system model discovery because it generates easily interpretable patterns based on direct observations of sampled factor data for a deeper understanding of societal behaviors that is tolerant of observation noise and missing data. The discovered patterns are simple to interpret and mimic human's identifications of observed trends in temporal data. Discovered patterns also provide an automated forecasting ability: we discuss an example of using discovered patterns coupled with a rich data environment to forecast various types of socio-political violence in nation-states.

Rohloff, Kurt↗

A Toolset for Supporting Iterative Human Automation: Interaction in Design

The addition of automation has greatly extended humans' capability to accomplish tasks, including those that are difficult, complex and safety critical. The majority of Human - Automation Interact~on (HAl) results in more efficient and safe operations, ho,,:,ever ~ertain un~~pected a~tomatlon behaviors or "automation surprises" can be frustrating and, In certain safety critical operations (e.g. transport~tion, manufacturing control, medicine), may result in injuries or. the loss of life.. (Mellor, 1994; Leveson, 1995; FAA, 1995; BASI, 1998; Sheridan, 2002). This pap~r describes ~he development of a design tool that enables on the rapid development and evaluation. of automat~on prototypes. The ultimate goal of the work is to provide a design platform upon which automation surprise vulnerability analyses can be integrated.

Feary, Michael S.↗

Automated Assume-Guarantee Reasoning for Omega-Regular Systems and Specifications

We develop a learning-based automated Assume-Guarantee (AG) reasoning framework for verifying omega-regular properties of concurrent systems. We study the applicability of non-circular (AGNC) and circular (AG-C) AG proof rules in the context of systems with infinite behaviors. In particular, we show that AG-NC is incomplete when assumptions are restricted to strictly infinite behaviors, while AG-C remains complete. We present a general formalization, called LAG, of the learning based automated AG paradigm. We show how existing approaches for automated AG reasoning are special instances of LAG.We develop two learning algorithms for a class of systems, called infinite regular systems, that combine finite and infinite behaviors. We show that for infinity-regular systems, both AG-NC and AG-C are sound and complete. Finally, we show how to instantiate LAG to do automated AG reasoning for infinite regular, and omega-regular, systems using both AG-NC and AG-C as proof rules

Chaki, Sagar↗

Functional Allocation for Ground-Based Automated Separation Assurance in NextGen

As part of an ongoing research effort into functional allocation in a NextGen environment, a controller-in-the-loop study on ground-based automated separation assurance was conducted at NASA Ames' Airspace Operations Laboratory in February 2010. Participants included six FAA front line managers, who are currently certified professional controllers and four recently retired controllers. Traffic scenarios were 15 and 30 minutes long where controllers interacted with advanced technologies for ground-based separation assurance, weather avoidance, and arrival metering. The automation managed the separation by resolving conflicts automatically and involved controllers only by exception, e.g., when the automated resolution would have been outside preset limits. Results from data analyses show that workload was low despite high levels of traffic, Operational Errors did occur but were closely tied to local complexity, and safety acceptability ratings varied with traffic levels. Positive feedback was elicited for the overall concept with discussion on the proper allocation of functions and trust in automation.

Prevot, Thomas↗

Towards an Improved Pilot-Vehicle Interface for Highly Automated Aircraft: Evaluation of the Haptic Flight Control System

The control automation and interaction paradigm (e.g., manual, autopilot, flight management system) used on virtually all large highly automated aircraft has long been an exemplar of breakdowns in human factors and human-centered design. An alternative paradigm is the Haptic Flight Control System (HFCS) that is part of NASA Langley Research Center s Naturalistic Flight Deck Concept. The HFCS uses only stick and throttle for easily and intuitively controlling the actual flight of the aircraft without losing any of the efficiency and operational benefits of the current paradigm. Initial prototypes of the HFCS are being evaluated and this paper describes one such evaluation. In this evaluation we examined claims regarding improved situation awareness, appropriate workload, graceful degradation, and improved pilot acceptance. Twenty-four instrument-rated pilots were instructed to plan and fly four different flights in a fictitious airspace using a moderate fidelity desktop simulation. Three different flight control paradigms were tested: Manual control, Full Automation control, and a simplified version of the HFCS. Dependent variables included both subjective (questionnaire) and objective (SAGAT) measures of situation awareness, workload (NASA-TLX), secondary task performance, time to recognize automation failures, and pilot preference (questionnaire). The results showed a statistically significant advantage for the HFCS in a number of measures. Results that were not statistically significant still favored the HFCS. The results suggest that the HFCS does offer an attractive and viable alternative to the tactical components of today s FMS/autopilot control system. The paper describes further studies that are planned to continue to evaluate the HFCS.

Schutte, Paul↗

Automated Ground Umbilical Systems (AGUS) Project

All space vehicles require ground umbilical systems for servicing. Servicing requirements can include, but are not limited to, electrical power and control, propellant loading and venting, pneumatic system supply, hazard gas detection and purging as well as systems checkout capabilities. Of the various types of umbilicals, all require several common subsystems. These typically include an alignment system, mating and locking system, fluid connectors, electrical connectors and control !checkout systems. These systems have been designed to various levels of detail based on the needs for manual and/or automation requirements. The Automated Ground Umbilical Systems (AGUS) project is a multi-phase initiative to develop design performance requirements and concepts for launch system umbilicals. The automation aspect minimizes operational time and labor in ground umbilical processing while maintaining reliability. This current phase of the project reviews the design, development, testing and operations of ground umbilicals built for the Saturn, Shuttle, X-33 and Atlas V programs. Based on the design and operations lessons learned from these systems, umbilicals can be optimized for specific applications. The product of this study is a document containing details of existing systems and requirements for future automated umbilical systems with emphasis on design-for-operations (DFO).

Gosselin, Armand M.↗

An Imaging System for Automated Characteristic Length Measurement of Debrisat Fragments

The debris fragments generated by DebriSat's hypervelocity impact test are currently being processed and characterized through an effort of NASA and USAF. The debris characteristics will be used to update satellite breakup models. In particular, the physical dimensions of the debris fragments must be measured to provide characteristic lengths for use in these models. Calipers and commercial 3D scanners were considered as measurement options, but an automated imaging system was ultimately developed to measure debris fragments. By automating the entire process, the measurement results are made repeatable and the human factor associated with calipers and 3D scanning is eliminated. Unlike using calipers to measure, the imaging system obtains non-contact measurements to avoid damaging delicate fragments. Furthermore, this fully automated measurement system minimizes fragment handling, which reduces the potential for fragment damage during the characterization process. In addition, the imaging system reduces the time required to determine the characteristic length of the debris fragment. In this way, the imaging system can measure the tens of thousands of DebriSat fragments at a rate of about six minutes per fragment, compared to hours per fragment in NASA's current 3D scanning measurement approach. The imaging system utilizes a space carving algorithm to generate a 3D point cloud of the article being measured and a custom developed algorithm then extracts the characteristic length from the point cloud. This paper describes the measurement process, results, challenges, and future work of the imaging system used for automated characteristic length measurement of DebriSat fragments.

Moraguez, Mathew↗

Evaluating an Automated Approach for Monitoring Forest Disturbances in the Pacific Northwest from Logging, Fire and Insect Outbreaks with Landsat Time Series Data

Forests are the largest aboveground sink for atmospheric carbon (C), and understanding how they change through time is critical to reduce our C-cycle uncertainties. We investigated a strong decline in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1982 to 1991 in Pacific Northwest forests, observed with the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRRs). To understand the causal factors of this decline, we evaluated an automated classification method developed for Landsat time series stacks (LTSS) to map forest change. This method included: (1) multiple disturbance index thresholds; and (2) a spectral trajectory-based image analysis with multiple confidence thresholds. We produced 48 maps and verified their accuracy with air photos, monitoring trends in burn severity data and insect aerial detection survey data. Area-based accuracy estimates for change in forest cover resulted in producer's and user's accuracies of 0.21 +/- 0.06 to 0.38 +/- 0.05 for insect disturbance, 0.23 +/- 0.07 to 1 +/- 0 for burned area and 0.74 +/- 0.03 to 0.76 +/- 0.03 for logging. We believe that accuracy was low for insect disturbance because air photo reference data were temporally sparse, hence missing some outbreaks, and the annual anniversary time step is not dense enough to track defoliation and progressive stand mortality. Producer's and user's accuracy for burned area was low due to the temporally abrupt nature of fire and harvest with a similar response of spectral indices between the disturbance index and normalized burn ratio. We conclude that the spectral trajectory approach also captures multi-year stress that could be caused by climate, acid deposition, pathogens, partial harvest, thinning, etc. Our study focused on understanding the transferability of previously successful methods to new ecosystems and found that this automated method does not perform with the same accuracy in Pacific Northwest forests. Using a robust accuracy assessment, we demonstrate the difficulty of transferring change attribution methods to other ecosystems, which has implications for the development of automated detection/attribution approaches. Widespread disturbance was found within AVHRR-negative anomalies, but identifying causal factors in LTSS with adequate mapping accuracy for fire and insects proved to be elusive. Our results provide a background framework for future studies to improve methods for the accuracy assessment of automated LTSS classifications.

Landsat↗

Automated ISS Flight Utilities

During my internship at NASA Johnson Space Center, I worked in the Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG), where I was tasked with a number of projects focused on the automation of tasks and activities related to the operation of the International Space Station (ISS). As I worked on a number of projects, I have written short sections below to give a description for each, followed by more general remarks on the internship experience. My first project is titled "General Exposure Representation EVADOSE", also known as "GEnEVADOSE". This project involved the design and development of a C++/ ROOT framework focused on radiation exposure for extravehicular activity (EVA) planning for the ISS. The utility helps mission managers plan EVAs by displaying information on the cumulative radiation doses that crew will receive during an EVA as a function of the egress time and duration of the activity. SRAG uses a utility called EVADOSE, employing a model of the space radiation environment in low Earth orbit to predict these doses, as while outside the ISS the astronauts will have less shielding from charged particles such as electrons and protons. However, EVADOSE output is cumbersome to work with, and prior to GEnEVADOSE, querying data and producing graphs of ISS trajectories and cumulative doses versus egress time required manual work in Microsoft Excel. GEnEVADOSE automates all this work, reading in EVADOSE output file(s) along with a plaintext file input by the user providing input parameters. GEnEVADOSE will output a text file containing all the necessary dosimetry for each proposed EVA egress time, for each specified EVADOSE file. It also plots cumulative dose versus egress time and the ISS trajectory, and displays all of this information in an auto-generated presentation made in LaTeX. New features have also been added, such as best-case scenarios (egress times corresponding to the least dose), interpolated curves for trajectories, and the ability to query any time in the EVADES output. As mentioned above, GEnEVADOSE makes extensive use of ROOT version 6, the data analysis framework developed at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), and the code is written to the C++11 standard (as are the other projects). My second project is the Automated Mission Reference Exposure Utility (AMREU).Unlike GEnEVADOSE, AMREU is a combination of three frameworks written in both Python and C++, also making use of ROOT (and PyROOT). Run as a combination of daily and weekly cron jobs, these macros query the SRAG database system to determine the active ISS missions, and query minute-by-minute radiation dose information from ISS-TEPC (Tissue Equivalent Proportional Counter), one of the radiation detectors onboard the ISS. Using this information, AMREU creates a corrected data set of daily radiation doses, addressing situations where TEPC may be offline or locked up by correcting doses for days with less than 95% live time (the total amount time the instrument acquires data) by averaging the past 7 days. As not all errors may be automatically detectable, AMREU also allows for manual corrections, checking an updated plaintext file each time it runs. With the corrected data, AMREU generates cumulative dose plots for each mission, and uses a Python script to generate a flight note file (.docx format) containing these plots, as well as information sections to be filled in and modified by the space weather environment officers with information specific to the week. AMREU is set up to run without requiring any user input, and it automatically archives old flight notes and information files for missions that are no longer active. My other projects involve cleaning up a large data set from the Charged Particle Directional Spectrometer (CPDS), joining together many different data sets in order to clean up information in SRAG SQL databases, and developing other automated utilities for displaying information on active solar regions, that may be used by the space weather environment officers to monitor solar activity. I consulted my mentor Dr. Ryan Rios and Dr. Kerry Lee for project requirements and added features, and ROOT developer Edmond Offermann for advice on using the ROOT library. I also received advice and feedback from Dr. Janet Barzilla of SRAG, who tested my code. Besides these inputs, I worked independently, writing all of the code by myself. The code for all these projects is documented throughout, and I have attempted to write it in a modular format. Assuming that ROOT is updated accordingly, these codes are also Y2038-compliant (and Y10K-compliant). This allows the code to be easily referenced, modified and possibly repurposed for non-ISS missions in the future, should the necessary inputs exist. These projects have taught me a lot about coding and software design - I have become a much more skilled C++ programmer and ROOT user, and I also learned to code in Python and PyROOT (and its advantages and disadvantages compared to C++/ ROOT). Furthermore, I have learned about space radiation and radiation modeling, topics that greatly interest me as I pursue a degree in physics. Working alongside experimental physicists like Dr. Rios, I have developed a greater understanding and appreciation for experimental science, something I have always leaned towards but to which I lacked significant exposure. My work in SRAG has also given me the invaluable opportunity to witness the work environment for physicists at NASA, and what a career in academia may look like at a government laboratory such as NASA Johnson Space Center. As I continue my studies and look forward to graduate school and a future career, this experience at NASA has given me a meaningful and enjoyable opportunity to put my skills to use and see what my future career path might hold.

Offermann, Jan Tuzlic↗

Development and Validation of an Automated Simulation Capability in Support of Integrated Demand Management

Integrated Demand Management (IDM) is a near- to mid-term NASA concept that proposes to address mismatches in air traffic system demand and capacity by using strategic flow management capabilities to pre-condition demand into the more tactical Time-Based Flow Management System (TBFM). This paper describes an automated simulation capability to support IDM concept development. The capability closely mimics existing human-in-the-loop (HITL) capabilities, automating both the human components and collaboration between operational systems, and speeding up the real-time aircraft simulations. Such a capability allows for parametric studies that will inform the HITL simulations, identifying breaking points and parameter values at which significant changes in system behavior occur. This paper also describes the initial validation of individual components of the automated simulation capability, and an example application comparing the performance of the IDM concept under two TBFM scheduling paradigms. The results and conclusions from this simulation compare closely to those from previous HITL simulations using similar scenarios, providing an initial validation of the automated simulation capability.

Integrated Demand Management↗

Management by Trajectory Trade Study of Roles and Responsibilities Between Participants and Automation Report

This report describes a trade study of roles and responsibilities associated with the Management by Trajectory (MBT) concept. The MBT concept describes roles, responsibilities, and information and automation requirements for providing air traffic controllers and managers the ability to quickly generate, evaluate and implement changes to an aircraft's trajectory. In addition, the MBT concept describes mechanisms for imposing constraints on flight operator preferred trajectories only to the extent necessary to maintain safe and efficient traffic flows, and the concept provides a method for the exchange of trajectory information between ground automation systems and the aircraft that allows for trajectory synchronization and trajectory negotiation. The participant roles considered in this trade study include: airline dispatcher, flight crew, radar controller, traffic manager, and Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) traffic management specialists. The proposed allocation of roles and responsibilities was based on analysis of several use cases that were developed for this purpose as well as for walking through concept elements. The resulting allocation of roles and responsibilities reflects both increased automation capability to support many aviation functions, as well as increased flexibility to assign responsibilities to different participants - in many cases afforded by the increased automation capabilities. Note that the selection of participants to consider for allocation of each function is necessarily rooted in the current environment, in that MBT is envisioned as an evolution of the National Airspace System (NAS), and not a revolution. A key feature of the MBT allocations is a vision for the traffic management specialist to take on a greater role. This is facilitated by the vision that separation management functions, in addition to traffic management functions, will be carried out as trajectory management functions. This creates an opportunity for flexibility, allowing the traffic management specialist to carry out tasks that today can only be carried out by the controller currently in contact with the aircraft. This additional tasking for the traffic management specialist comes with requirements for workload management. An increased role for the Data-side (D-side) controller relative to the Radar-side (R-side) controller is a potential approach to mitigating workload for the traffic management specialist, as the D-side controller would have similar ability to perform separation management functions in what today might be considered the "trajectory management" timeframe. This analysis did not distinguish between the D-side and R-side controllers since in many cases the R-side controller works unassisted.

Fernandes, Alicia D.↗

Cooperative Automation Supporting Pilot-Dispatch Negotiation of Enroute Trajectory Change Requests

The advent of advanced technologies in communication, navigation, and surveillance is enabling more integration between the aircraft and the ground systems in managing air traffic operations. As a result, automation has evolved to provide the flight crew, air traffic controllers, and traffic flow managers with capabilities for collaborating on information access, analysis, and decision making. In this paper, we investigate different cooperative schemes between these agents, supported by automation, in managing dynamic trajectory changes while the flight is en route to improve flight and system performance. The analysis was conducted using an abstract cognitive tasking framework to identify trajectory change tasks independently from the agent performing them. Cooperation schemes were then derived by assessing different levels of cooperation on each task between the air and ground agents and their automation. The assessment was based on which automation-supported agent is more capable of performing the task and the expected benefit mechanisms that result from cooperating. The cooperation schemes were compared based on a qualitative, but objective, assessment of the benefits expected from cooperation.

air-ground integration↗

Automation of Structural Sizing of Aircraft Concepts Under Static Aeroelastic Constraints

This paper presents an automation process for structural sizing of subsonic and supersonic aircraft concepts under static aeroelastic constraints. The automation process starts with an OpenVSP geometry and ends with a PATRAN plot of a NASTRAN solution for static aeroelastic analysis or optimization. ModelCenter is used to integrate all analysis codes with easy-to-use interfaces. Automation tools are developed to streamline the setup process and avoid user errors. Fuel is distributed by solving an optimization problem to match the center of gravity of aircraft at a specified flight condition. Fuel weights are also automatically attached to the structural model as point masses. All other weights used in FLOPS mission analysis (excluding fuselage and wing structural weights) are automatically attached to or smeared on the structural model. For any given OpenVSP geometry and FLOPS analysis data, a static aeroelastic sizing model for NASTRAN analysis can be generated in a couple of hours. The empirical fuselage and wing structural weights from FLOPS are replaced by structural panel weights from the sized finite-element model. Three supersonic and two subsonic aircraft concepts are used to demonstrate the automation process as a physics-based weight estimation tool for aircraft conceptual design.

Li, Wu↗

Automated Fiber Placement Manufactured Composites for Science Applications

What automated composite laminate manufacturing isWhy automation is of interest in science applicationsHow composite automation is being considered for science instrument applicationsAnd, about test data showing high stiffness materials processed with automation results in reduced material strength while stiffness and coefficient of thermal expansion are mostly unaffected.

Segal, Ken↗

Evaluation of Technology Concepts for Energy, Automation, and System State Awareness in Commercial Airline Flight Decks

A pilot-in-the-loop flight simulation study was conducted at NASA Langley Research Center to evaluate flight deck systems that (1) provide guidance for recovery from low energy states and stalls, (2) present the current state and expected future state of automated systems, and/or (3) show the state of flight-critical data systems in use by automated systems and primary flight instruments. The study was conducted using 13 commercial airline crews from multiple airlines, paired by airline to minimize procedural effects. Scenarios spanned a range of complex conditions and several emulated causal and contributing factors found in recent accidents involving loss of state awareness by pilots (e.g., energy state, automation state, and/or system state). Three new technology concepts were evaluated while used in concert with current state-of-the-art flight deck systems and indicators. The technologies include a stall recovery guidance algorithm and display concept, an enhanced airspeed control indicator that shows when automation is no longer actively controlling airspeed, and enhanced synoptic pages designed to work with simplified interactive electronic checklists. An additional synoptic was developed to provide the flight crew with information about the effects of loss of flight critical data. Data was collected via questionnaires administered at the completion of flight scenarios, audio/video recordings, flight data, head and eye tracking data, pilot control inputs, and researcher observations. This paper presents findings derived from the questionnaire responses and subjective data measures including workload, situation awareness, usability, and acceptability as well as analyses of two low-energy flight events that resulted in near-stall conditions.

Kramer, Lynda J.↗

Automation of the Uncertainty Quantification Process Based on Probability Boxes with DAKOTA

To date, while the use of CFD is prevalent, very few efforts have been undertaken that truly attempt to document all (or even most) of the sources of uncertainty in the simulations. Instead, the current state-of-the-art relies heavily on the experience of the CFD practitioner to estimate the uncertainty associated with their simulations through simple sensitivity studies or subject matter expertise. This practice will have to be replaced with a formal uncertainty quantification (UQ) process if CFD is to play an expanded role in the design research and engineering community, test and evaluation community, and ultimately certification for flight. This is especially true for hypersonic air-breathing propulsion systems due to the environment, scale, and duration limitations of ground test facilities. Accounting for uncertainties in a formal manner is a tedious process. Moreover, the typical CFD practitioner is not likely to be familiar with formal UQ methods. Hence, a major obstacle that has prevented the adoption of UQ methods for engineering design and development work is the lack of a tool set to automate most (if not all) of the UQ workflow. Towards this end, the SANDIA package DAKOTA (which has been developed to drive both UQ and optimization processes) will be tightly wrapped around the VULCAN-CFD code to automate the uncertainty quantification process. The automated process will be applied to an isolator turbulence model validation exercise that has previously been documented using a manual approach to the UQ process. Hence, the focus of this paper will be documenting the level to which automation can hide the UQ process details from the CFD practitioner rather than the UQ method itself.

CFD↗

LMI Automated Air Cargo Operations Market Research and Forecast

Air cargo companies and aircraft manufacturers are making significant investments to enable the movement of cargo via various levels of automated aircraft, such as aircraft with simplified operations requiring a pilot, remotely monitored or piloted aircraft, and fully autonomous aircraft. These investments will enable greater utilization of aircraft while unlocking new air markets traditionally served by ground transportation only. Many cargo companies and aerospace experts envision an operating environment where a single pilot can remotely pilot numerous aircraft for significant increases in aircraft utilization. The future operating environment is also expected to include air cargo companies flying smaller aircraft from airports and distribution centers outside of major U.S. cities directly to city centers, avoiding congested roads and increasing the velocity of cargo shipments, particularly those that are high-value, time-sensitive, and security sensitive (e.g., pharmaceuticals). These are just a few benefits and use cases cargo companies and aerospace experts see with the advancement of automated aircraft. To better understand industry’s direction, NASA asked the LMI team to research the forecasted market, timeline, risks, and opportunities for integrating unmanned air cargo vehicles into the National Airspace System (NAS) for the development and prioritization of the NASA Air Traffic Management Exploration’s research portfolio. To begin the market assessment, we gathered data via numerous interviews with key stakeholders and subject matter experts and literature reviews. We then incorporated the data into a custom-developed systems dynamics model and visualization dashboard. The systems dynamics model classifies the size of the market (e.g., overall fleet size of automated aircraft) for four distinct use cases over the next 20 years. The model projects the year in which various types of automated aircraft will enter the commercial cargo market based on our team’s collective research on when the aircraft will become viable due to manufacturing and certification timelines and the lifespan of current, traditional aircraft in service, to name a few factors. While this report defines our team’s estimated timeline of entry and growth, the model is dynamic—it enables NASA users to change variables based on future-year events. If the necessary technology does not mature in accordance with our assumptions, then NASA can change the entry of service point to a future year to evaluate the changes in market size in the out years. This flexibility will be key to deciding when and how NASA should invest in various areas.

air traffic management↗