Predicting Active Region Emergence Using an LSTM Machine Learning Model
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We train Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models that predict the formation of active regions (ARs), the main source of eruptive solar activity. Using the Doppler shift velocity, the continuum intensity and the magnetic field full-disk maps from SDO/HMI we have created time-series datasets of acoustic power and magnetic flux which are used to train Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models on predicting decreases in continuum intensity 12 hours in advance. Testing of the models' performance was done on data from 5 ARs, unseen from the model during training. The model predicted the emergence of AR11726, AR13165 and AR13179, 10, 29 and 5 hours in advance, and variations of this model achieved average RMSE values of 0.11 for both active and quiet parts of the solar disc, showing the ability of the model to capture acoustic power anomalies and predict continuum intensity variations. This work sets the foundations for the very first ML-aided prediction of solar ARs.
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A thermal receiver, such as a solar flux thermal receiver, is disclosed comprising a modular arrangement of arrayed microchannels or micropins to heat a working fluid by heat transfer. Disclosed solar receivers provide a much higher solar flux and consequently a significant reduction in thermal losses, size, and cost, relative to known receivers. Unit cell receivers can be numbered up and combined in parallel to form modules, and modules combined to form full scale receivers.
Pore-resolved direct numerical simulations (DNS) are used to investigate the interactions between stream-water flow turbulence and groundwater flow through a porous sediment bed in the hyporheic zone. Two permeability Reynolds numbers (2.56 and 5.17), representative of aquatic systems and representing ratio of permeability to viscous length scales, were simulated to understand its influence on the momentum exchange at the sediment-water interface (SWI). A doubleaveraging methodology is used to compute the Reynolds stresses, form-induced stresses, and pressure fluctuations. It is observed that both shear layer and turbulent shear stress penetration increases with ReK. Reynolds and form-induced bed-normal stresses increase with ReK. The peak values of the form-induced stresses for the lower (2.56) and higher (5.17) ReK happen within the top layer of the sediment bed. The sum of turbulent and form-induced pressure fluctuations, analyzed at their respective zero-displacement planes, are statistically similar and can be well approximated by a t location-scale distribution fit providing with a model that could potentially be used to impose boundary conditions at the SWI in reach scale simulations.
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