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NASA NTRS2008

Using the Modified Precursor Method to Estimate the Size of Cycle 24

Modified geomagnetic precursor techniques for predicting the size of the following sunspot cycle are developed, where these techniques use the 12-month moving averages of the number of disturbed days (when Ap greater than or equals 25), the Ap index, the aa index, and the aaI index at about 4 yr during the declining portion of the preceding sunspot cycle. For cycle 24, these techniques suggest that its RM will measure about 130 +/- 14, a value outside the consensus prediction interval of the low prediction (90 +/- 10) given by the NOAA Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel. Furthermore, cycle 24 is predicted to be a fast-rising cycle (ASC = 44 +/- 5 months), peaking before April 2012, presuming the official start of cycle 24 in March 2008. Also discussed are the variation of solar cycle lengths and Hale cycle effects, as related to cycles 23 and 24.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Re-Engineering the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Satellite Utilizing Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Mission Services Center (GMSEC) Middleware Based Technology to Enable Lights Out Operations and Autonomous Re-Dump of Lost Telemetry Data

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft was launched in November of 1996 in order to obtain unique three dimensional radar cross sectional observations of cloud structures with particular interest in hurricanes. The TRMM mission life was recently extended with current estimates that operations will continue through the 2012-2013 timeframe. Faced with this extended mission profile, the project has embarked on a technology refresh and re-engineering effort. TRMM has recently implemented a re-engineering effort to expand a middleware based messaging architecture to enable fully redundant lights-out of flight operations activities. The middleware approach is based on the Goddard Mission Services Evolution Center (GMSEC) architecture, tools and associated open-source Applications Programming Interface (API). Middleware based messaging systems are useful in spacecraft operations and automation systems because private node based knowledge (such as that within a telemetry and command system) can be broadcast on the middleware messaging bus and hence enable collaborative decisions to be made by multiple subsystems. In this fashion, private data is made public and distributed within the local area network and multiple nodes can remain synchronized with other nodes. This concept is useful in a fully redundant architecture whereby one node is monitoring the processing of the 'prime' node so that in the event of a failure the backup node can assume operations of the prime, without loss of state knowledge. This paper will review and present the experiences, architecture, approach and lessons learned of the TRMM re-engineering effort centered on the GMSEC middleware architecture and tool suite. Relevant information will be presented that relates to the dual redundant parallel nature of the Telemetry and Command (T and C) and Front-End systems and how these systems can interact over a middleware bus to achieve autonomous operations including autonomous commanding to recover missing science data during the same spacecraft contact.

Marius, Julio L.↗

NASA NTRS2008

National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Third-Generation Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS)

NASA has contracted with Boeing to provide two third-generation Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS) designated TDRS K and L, with an option to provide two additional satellites designated TDRS M and N. These TDRS will be used to continue and enhance the user support services of the existing first- and second-generation TDRS spacecraft. The existing TDRS, in conjunction with the TDRS Ground Terminals at the White Sands NM Complex (WSC) and Guam, constitute the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). The TDRSS, with other supporting elements, is referred to as the Space Network (SN). The launch of the TDRS K is projected for 2012 with TDRS L planned to follow in 2013. The contract also provides for the modifications to the TDRS Ground Terminals at the WSC required for operation of the new TDRS. This paper provides an overview of the customer services provided by the existing and new TDRS. In addition, planned future customer services such as Bandwidth Efficient Modulation (BEM) and new coding schemes are briefly discussed.

Berndt, Allen K.↗

NASA NTRS2008

The DAWN Project's Transition to Mission Operations: on Its Way to Rendezvous with (4) Vesta and (1) Ceres

Dawn launched on 27 September 2007 on a mission to orbit main belt asteroids (4) Vesta in 2011 - 2012 and (1) Ceres in 2015. The operations team conducted an extensive set of assessments of the engineering subsystems and science instruments during the first 80 days of the mission. A major objective of this period was to thrust for one week with the ion propulsion system to verify flight and ground systems readiness for typical interplanetary operations. Upon successful conclusion of the checkout phase, the interplanetary cruise phase began, most of which will be devoted to thrusting. The flexibility afforded by the use of ion propulsion enabled the project to accommodate a launch postponement of more than 3 months caused by a combination of launch vehicle and tracking system readiness, unfavorable weather, and then conflicts with other launches. Even with the shift in the launch date, all of the science objectives are retained with the same schedule and greater technical margins. This paper describes the conclusion of the development phase of the project, launch operations, and the progress of mission operations.

launch operations↗

NASA NTRS2009

Objectives and Progress on Integrated Vehicle Ground Vibration Testing for the Ares Launch Vehicles

As NASA begins design and development of the Ares launch vehicles to replace the Space Shuttle and explore beyond low Earth orbit, Integrated Vehicle Ground Vibration Testing (IVGVT) will be a vital component of ensuring that those vehicles can perform the missions assigned to them. A ground vibration test (GVT) is intended to measure by test the fundamental dynamic characteristics of launch vehicles during various phases of flight. During the series of tests, properties such as natural frequencies, mode shapes, and transfer functions are measured directly. This data is then used to calibrate loads and control systems analysis models for verifying analyses of the launch vehicle. The Ares Flight & Integrated Test Office (FITO) will be conducting IVGVT for the Ares I crew launch vehicle at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) from 2011 to 2012 using the venerable Test Stand (TS) 4550, which supported similar tests for the Saturn V and Space Shuttle vehicle stacks.

Tuma, Margaret L.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System Modelling and Algorithm Development

The Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS) is being developed as part of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI) project. The MEADS project involves installing an array of seven pressure transducers linked to ports on the MSL forebody to record the surface pressure distribution during atmospheric entry. These measured surface pressures are used to generate estimates of atmospheric quantities based on modeled surface pressure distributions. In particular, the quantities to be estimated from the MEADS pressure measurements include the total pressure, dynamic pressure, Mach number, angle of attack, and angle of sideslip. Secondary objectives are to estimate atmospheric winds by coupling the pressure measurements with the on-board Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) data. This paper provides details of the algorithm development, MEADS system performance based on calibration, and uncertainty analysis for the aerodynamic and atmospheric quantities of interest. The work presented here is part of the MEDLI performance pre-flight validation and will culminate with processing flight data after Mars entry in 2012.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Strong Solar Control of Infrared Aurora on Jupiter: Correlation Since the Last Solar Maximum

Polar aurorae in Jupiter's atmosphere radiate throughout the electromagnetic spectrum from X ray through mid-infrared (mid-IR, 5 - 20 micron wavelength). Voyager IRIS data and ground-based spectroscopic measurements of Jupiter's northern mid-IR aurora, acquired since 1982, reveal a correlation between auroral brightness and solar activity that has not been observed in Jovian aurora at other wavelengths. Over nearly three solar cycles, Jupiter auroral ethane emission brightness and solar 10.7 cm radio flux and sunspot number are positively correlated with high confidence. Ethane line emission intensity varies over tenfold between low and high solar activity periods. Detailed measurements have been made using the GSFC HIPWAC spectrometer at the NASA IRTF since the last solar maximum, following the mid-IR emission through the declining phase toward solar minimum. An even more convincing correlation with solar activity is evident in these data. Current analyses of these results will be described, including planned measurements on polar ethane line emission scheduled through the rise of the next solar maximum beginning in 2009, with a steep gradient to a maximum in 2012. This work is relevant to the Juno mission and to the development of the Europa Jupiter System Mission. Results of observations at the Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) operated by the University of Hawaii under Cooperative Agreement no. NCC5-538 with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Science Mission Directorate, Planetary Astronomy Program. This work was supported by the NASA Planetary Astronomy Program.

Kostiuk, T.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Juno Mission Simulation

The Juno spacecraft is planned to launch in August of 2012 and would arrive at Jupiter four years later. The spacecraft would spend more than one year orbiting the planet and investigating the existence of an ice-rock core; determining the amount of global water and ammonia present in the atmosphere, studying convection and deep- wind profiles in the atmosphere; investigating the origin of the Jovian magnetic field, and exploring the polar magnetosphere. Juno mission management is responsible for mission and navigation design, mission operation planning, and ground-data-system development. In order to ensure successful mission management from initial checkout to final de-orbit, it is critical to share a common vision of the entire mission operation phases with the rest of the project teams. Two major challenges are 1) how to develop a shared vision that can be appreciated by all of the project teams of diverse disciplines and expertise, and 2) how to continuously evolve a shared vision as the project lifecycle progresses from formulation phase to operation phase. The Juno mission simulation team addresses these challenges by developing agile and progressive mission models, operation simulations, and real-time visualization products. This paper presents mission simulation visualization network (MSVN) technology that has enabled a comprehensive mission simulation suite (MSVN-Juno) for the Juno project.

space vehicles↗

NASA NTRS2009

Feature Detection Systems Enhance Satellite Imagery

In 1963, during the ninth orbit of the Faith 7 capsule, astronaut Gordon Cooper skipped his nap and took some photos of the Earth below using a Hasselblad camera. The sole flier on the Mercury-Atlas 9 mission, Cooper took 24 photos - never-before-seen images including the Tibetan plateau, the crinkled heights of the Himalayas, and the jagged coast of Burma. From his lofty perch over 100 miles above the Earth, Cooper noted villages, roads, rivers, and even, on occasion, individual houses. In 1965, encouraged by the effectiveness of NASA s orbital photography experiments during the Mercury and subsequent Gemini manned space flight missions, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) director William Pecora put forward a plan for a remote sensing satellite program that would collect information about the planet never before attainable. By 1972, NASA had built and launched Landsat 1, the first in a series of Landsat sensors that have combined to provide the longest continuous collection of space-based Earth imagery. The archived Landsat data - 37 years worth and counting - has provided a vast library of information allowing not only the extensive mapping of Earth s surface but also the study of its environmental changes, from receding glaciers and tropical deforestation to urban growth and crop harvests. Developed and launched by NASA with data collection operated at various times by the Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Earth Observation Satellite Company (EOSAT, a private sector partnership that became Space Imaging Corporation in 1996), and USGS, Landsat sensors have recorded flooding from Hurricane Katrina, the building boom in Dubai, and the extinction of the Aral Sea, offering scientists invaluable insights into the natural and manmade changes that shape the world. Of the seven Landsat sensors launched since 1972, Landsat 5 and Landsat 7 are still operational. Though both are in use well beyond their intended lifespans, the mid-resolution satellites, which provide the benefit of images detailed enough to reveal large features like highways while still broad enough for global coverage, continue to scan the entirety of the Earth s surface. In 2012, NASA plans to launch the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM), or Landsat 8, to extend the Landsat program s contributions to cartography, water management, natural disaster relief planning, and more.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2009

Jupiter's Mid-Infrared Aurora: Solar Connection and Minor Constituents

High spectral resolution in the 12 pin region of the polar regions of Jupiter reveal unique information on auroral phenomena and upper stratospheric composition. Polar aurorae in Jupiter's atmosphere radiate; throughout the electromagnetic spectrum from X-ray through mid-infrared (mid-IR, 5 - 20 micron wavelength). Voyager IRIS data and ground-based. spectroscopic measurements of Jupiter's northern mid-IR aurora acquired since 1982, reveal a correlation between auroral brightness and solar activity that has not been observed in Jovian aurora at other wavelengths. Over nearly three solar cycles, Jupiter auroral ethane, emission brightness and solar 10.7-cm radar flux and sunspot number are positively correlated with high confidence. Ethane line emission intensity varies over tenfold between low and high scalar activity periods. Detailed measurements have been made using the GSFC HIPWAC spectrometer at the NASA IRTF since the last solar maximum, following the mid-IR emission through the declining phase toward solar minimum. An even more convincing correlation with solar activity is evident in these data. The spectra measured contain features that cannot be attributed to ethane and are most likely spectra of minor constituents whose molecular bands overlap the v9 band of ethane. Possible candidates are allene, propane, and other higher order hydrocarbons. These features appear to be enhanced in the active polar regions. Laboratory measurements at comparable spectral resolution of spectra of candidate molecules will be used to identify the constituents. Current analyses of these results will be described, including planned measurements on polar ethane line emission scheduled through the rise of the next solar maximum beginning in 2009, with a steep gradient to a maximum in 2012. This work is relevant to the Juno mission and to the development of the NASA/ESA Europa Jupiter System Mission.

Kostiuk, Theodore↗

NASA NTRS2009

Terrestrial Applications of the Thermal Infrared Sensor, TIRS

Landsat satellites have acquired single-band thermal images since 1978. The next satellile in the heritage, Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM), is scheduled to launch in December 2012. LDCM will contain the Operational Land Imager (OLI) and the Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), where TIRS operates in concert with, but independently of OLI. This paper will provide an overview of the remote sensing instrument TIRS. The T1RS instrument was designed at National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) where it will be fabricated and calibrated as well. Protecting the integrity of the Scientific Data that will be collected from TIRS played a strong role in definition of the calibration test equipment and procedures used for the optical, radiometric, and spatial calibration. The data that will be produced from LCDM will continue to be used world wide for environment monitoring and resource management.

Smith, Ramsey L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Planning for Plume Diagnostics for Ground Testing of J-2X Engines at the SSC

John C. Stennis Space Center (SSC) is the premier test facility for liquid rocket engine development and certification for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Therefore, it is no surprise that the SSC will play the most prominent role in the engine development testing and certification for the J-2X engine. The Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne J-2X engine has been selected by the Constellation Program to power the Ares I Upper Stage Element and the Ares V Earth Departure Stage in NASA s strategy of risk mitigation for hardware development by building on the Apollo program and other lessons learned to deliver a human-rated engine that is on an aggressive development schedule, with first demonstration flight in 2010 and human test flights in 2012. Accordingly, J-2X engine design, development, test, and evaluation is to build upon heritage hardware and apply valuable experience gained from past development and testing efforts. In order to leverage SSC s successful and innovative expertise in the plume diagnostics for the space shuttle main engine (SSME) health monitoring,1-10 this paper will present a blueprint for plume diagnostics for various proposed ground testing activities for J-2X at SSC. Complete description of the SSC s test facilities, supporting infrastructure, and test facilities is available in Ref. 11. The A-1 Test Stand is currently being prepared for testing the J-2X engine at sea level conditions. The A-2 Test Stand is currently being used for testing the SSME and may also be used for testing the J-2X engine at sea level conditions in the future. Very recently, ground-breaking ceremony for the new A-3 rocket engine test stand took place at SSC on August 23, 2007. A-3 is the first large - scale test stand to be built at the SSC since the A and B stands were constructed in the 1960s. The A-3 Test Stand will be used for testing J-2X engines under vacuum conditions simulating high altitude operation at approximately 30,480 m (100,000 ft). To achieve the simulated altitude environment, chemical steam generators using isopropyl alcohol, LOX, and RELEASED - Printed documents may be obsolete; validate prior to use. water would run for the duration of the test and would generate approximately 2096 Kg/s of steam to reduce pressure in the test cell and downstream of the engine. The testing at the A-3 Test Stand is projected to begin in late 2010, meanwhile the J-2X component testing on A-1 is scheduled to begin later this year.

SaintCyr, William W.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Objectives and Progress on Ground Vibration Testing for the Ares Projects

Integrated vehicle ground vibration testing (IVGVT) will be a vital component for ensuring the safety of NASA s next generation of exploration vehicles to send human beings to the Moon and beyond. A ground vibration test (GVT) measures the fundamental dynamic characteristics of launch vehicles during various phases of flight. The Ares Flight & Integrated Test Office (FITO) will be conducting the IVGVT for the Ares I crew launch vehicle at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) from 2012 to 2014 using Test Stand (TS) 4550. MSFC conducted similar GVT for the Saturn V and Space Shuttle vehicles. FITO will perform the IVGVT on the Ares I crew launch vehicle, which will lift the Orion crew exploration vehicle to low Earth orbit, and the Ares V cargo launch vehicle, which can launch the lunar lander into orbit and send the combined Orion/lander vehicles toward the Moon. Ares V consists of a six-engine core stage with two solid rocket boosters and an Earth departure stage (EDS). The same engine will power the EDS and the Ares I second stage. The current plan is to test six configurations in three unique test positions inside TS 4550. Four Ares I second stage test configurations will be tested in Position 3, consisting of the Upper Stage and Orion crew module in four nominal conditions: J-2X engine ignition, post Launch Abort System (LAS) jettison, critical slosh mass, and J-2X burn-out. Position 2 consists of the entire launch stack at first stage burn-out (using empty first stage segments). Position 1 represents the entire launch stack at lift-off (using inert first stage segments). Because of long disuse, TS 4550 is being repaired and modified for reactivation to conduct the Ares I IVGVT. The Shuttle-era platforms have been removed and are being replaced with mast climbers that provide ready access to the test articles and can be moved easily to support different positions within the test stand. Two new cranes will help move test articles at the test stand and at the Redstone Arsenal rail-head where first stage segments will be received in late 2010. The electrical system for TS 4550 also will be upgraded. The Hydraulic Support Systems (HDSs) used for Saturn and Shuttle are being disassembled and evaluated for use during IVGVT. Analyses indicate that the 45-year-old HDSs can be refurbished to support the Ares I IVGT. An alternate concept for a pneumatic suspension system is also being explored. A decision on which suspension system configuration to use for IVGVT will be made in 2010.

Tuma, Margaret L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Ensuring Safe Exploration: Ares Launch Vehicle Integrated Vehicle Ground Vibration Testing

Integrated vehicle ground vibration testing (IVGVT) will be a vital component for ensuring the safety of NASA's next generation of exploration vehicles to send human beings to the Moon and beyond. A ground vibration test (GVT) measures the fundamental dynamic characteristics of launch vehicles during various phases of flight. The Ares Flight & Integrated Test Office (FITO) will be leading the IVGVT for the Ares I crew launch vehicle at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) from 2012 to 2014 using Test Stand (TS) 4550. MSFC conducted similar GVT for the Saturn V and Space Shuttle vehicles. FITO is responsible for performing the IVGVT on the Ares I crew launch vehicle, which will lift the Orion crew exploration vehicle to low Earth orbit, and the Ares V cargo launch vehicle, which can launch the lunar lander into orbit and send the combined Orionilander vehicles toward the Moon. Ares V consists of a six-engine core stage with two solid rocket boosters and an Earth departure stage (EDS). The same engine will power the EDS and the Ares I second stage. For the Ares IVGVT, the current plan is to test six configurations in three unique test positions inside TS 4550. Position 1 represents the entire launch stack at liftoff (using inert first stage segments). Position 2 consists of the entire launch stack at first stage burn-out (using empty first stage segments). Four Ares I second stage test configurations will be tested in Position 3, consisting of the Upper Stage and Orion crew module in four nominal conditions: J-2X engine ignition, post Launch Abort System (LAS) jettison, critical slosh mass, and J-2X burn-out. Because of long disuse, TS 4550 is being repaired and reactivated to conduct the Ares I IVGVT. The Shuttle-era platforms have been removed and are being replaced with mast climbers that provide ready access to the test articles and can be moved easily to support different positions within the test stand. The electrical power distribution system for TS 4550 was upgraded. Two new cranes will help move test articles at the test stand and at the Redstone Arsenal railhead where first stage segments will be received in 2011. The Hydrodynamic Support systems (HDSs) used for Saturn and Shuttle have been disassembled and evaluated for use during IVGVT. Analyses indicate that the 45-year-old HDSs can be refurbished to support the Ares I IVGVT. An alternate concept for a pneumatic suspension system is also being explored. A decision on which suspension system configuration to use for IVGVT will be made in 2010. In the next three years, the team will complete the updates to TS 4550, upgrade the test and data collection equipment, and finalize the configurations of the test articles to be used in the IVGVT. With NASA's GVT capabilities reestablished, the FITO team will be well positioned to perform similar work on Ares V, the largest exploration launch vehicle NASA has ever built. The GVT effort continues NASA's 50-year commitment to using testing and data analysis for safer, more reliable launch vehicles.

Tuma, M. L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

An Examination of the Hadley Sea-Surface Temperature Time Series for the Nino 3.4 Region

The Hadley sea-surface temperature (HadSST) dataset is investigated for the interval 1871-2008. The purpose of this investigation is to determine the degree of success in identifying and characterizing El Nino (EN) southern (ENSO) extreme events, both EN and La Nina (LN) events. Comparisons are made against both the Southern Oscillation Index for the same time interval and with published values of the Oceanic Nino Index for the interval since 1950. Some 60 ENSO extreme events are identified in the HadSST dataset, consisting of 33 EN and 27 LN events. Also, preferential associations are found to exist between the duration of ENSO extreme events and their maximum anomalous excursion temperatures and between the recurrence rate for an EN event and the duration of the last known EN event. Because the present ongoing EN is a strong event, it should persist 11 months or longer, inferring that the next EN event should not be expected until June 2012 or later. Furthermore, the decadal sum of EN-related months is found to have increased somewhat steadily since the decade of 1920-1929, suggesting that the present decade (2010-2019) possibly will see about 3-4 EN events, totaling about 37 +/- 3 EN-related months (i.e., months that meet the definition for the occurrence of an EN event).

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Porting Gravitational Wave Signal Extraction to Parallel Virtual Machine (PVM)

Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is a planned NASA-ESA mission to be launched around 2012. The Gravitational Wave detection is fundamentally the determination of frequency, source parameters, and waveform amplitude derived in a specific order from the interferometric time-series of the rotating LISA spacecrafts. The LISA Science Team has developed a Mock LISA Data Challenge intended to promote the testing of complicated nested search algorithms to detect the 100-1 millihertz frequency signals at amplitudes of 10E-21. However, it has become clear that, sequential search of the parameters is very time consuming and ultra-sensitive; hence, a new strategy has been developed. Parallelization of existing sequential search algorithms of Gravitational Wave signal identification consists of decomposing sequential search loops, beginning with outermost loops and working inward. In this process, the main challenge is to detect interdependencies among loops and partitioning the loops so as to preserve concurrency. Existing parallel programs are based upon either shared memory or distributed memory paradigms. In PVM, master and node programs are used to execute parallelization and process spawning. The PVM can handle process management and process addressing schemes using a virtual machine configuration. The task scheduling and the messaging and signaling can be implemented efficiently for the LISA Gravitational Wave search process using a master and 6 nodes. This approach is accomplished using a server that is available at NASA Ames Research Center, and has been dedicated to the LISA Data Challenge Competition. Historically, gravitational wave and source identification parameters have taken around 7 days in this dedicated single thread Linux based server. Using PVM approach, the parameter extraction problem can be reduced to within a day. The low frequency computation and a proxy signal-to-noise ratio are calculated in separate nodes that are controlled by the master using message and vector of data passing. The message passing among nodes follows a pattern of synchronous and asynchronous send-and-receive protocols. The communication model and the message buffers are allocated dynamically to address rapid search of gravitational wave source information in the Mock LISA data sets.

Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar↗

NASA NTRS2010

Predicting the Size and Timing of Sunspot Maximum for Cycle 24

For cycle 24, the minimum value of the 12-month moving average (12-mma) of the AA-geomagnetic index in the vicinity of sunspot minimum (AAm) appears to have occurred in September 2009, measuring about 8.4 nT and following sunspot minimum by 9 months. This is the lowest value of AAm ever recorded, falling below that of 8.9 nT, previously attributed to cycle 14, which also is the smallest maximum amplitude (RM) cycle of the modern era (RM = 64.2). Based on the method of Ohl (the preferential association between RM and AAm for an ongoing cycle), one expects cycle 24 to have RM = 55+/-17 (the +/-1 - sigma prediction interval). Instead, using a variation of Ohl's method, one based on using 2-cycle moving averages (2-cma), one expects cycle 23's 2-cma of RM to be about 115.5+/-8.7 (the +/-1 - sigma prediction interval), inferring an RM of about 62+/-35 for cycle 24. Hence, it seems clear that cycle 24 will be smaller in size than was seen in cycle 23 (RM = 120.8) and, likely, will be comparable in size to that of cycle 14. From the Waldmeier effect (the preferential association between the ascent duration (ASC) and RM for an ongoing cycle), one expects cycle 24 to be a slow-rising cycle (ASC > or equal to 48 months), having RM occurrence after December 2012, unless it turns out to be a statistical outlier.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Technology Development Plan for the Baseline Detector System of the X-Ray Microcalorimeter Spectrometer (XMS) of the International X-Ray Observatory (IXO)

The primary purpose of this document is to present the technology development plan for the XMS detector system. It covers the current status (including assessment of the Technology Readiness Level, TRL, and a justification of the level assigned), the roadmap to progress to a level between TRL 5 and TRL 6 by the middle of 2012, and an assessment of the associated cost. A secondary purpose of this document is to address the Action Items raised at the XMS Phase-A Study Mid-Term Review that pertain to the detector system (AI #4, #8, and #9).

Kilbourne, C. A.↗