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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.

Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗
DOE OSTI2025

Secure Route: Roadway Risk Mapping for Transportation Planners

The secure transport of sensitive materials across U.S. road networks pose unique challenges for local, state, and federal agencies. Threats range from random events (e.g., accidents, medical emergencies, mechanical failures) to opportunistic or organized tactical assaults. Although the probability of such attacks is very low, the consequences of material loss to foreign states or terrorists can be catastrophic, qualifying these scenarios as “grey swan” events—low-probability, high-impact occurrences that are predictable but difficult to quantify. Traditional risk assessments struggle in these contexts, necessitating a shift toward subjective risk perception to inform planning. Risk perception in transport planning is shaped by various factors, including knowledge of adversarial capabilities, vehicle defenses, manifest details, and geographic features along the route. Geographic features such as bridges, tunnels, roadside elevation, and gaps in cellular coverage introduce vulnerabilities, while mitigative features include safe havens, police stations, and medical services. Temporal variables such as congestion, accidents, and weather further complicate route planning. Despite their importance, existing routing tools like Google Maps and commercial software do not explicitly account for geographic risk features, requiring planners to rely on personal familiarity with routes—a time-intensive, non-scalable approach. This work addresses these gaps by: (1) developing datasets that catalog geographic risk features along U.S. roadways, (2) eliciting risk perceptions from experienced transportation security experts, and (3) linking these perceptions to roadway conditions and geographic data. We implement these capabilities within Secure Route a novel mapping tool for classifying route segment risks associated with roadway conditions. This system provides transportation planners with an intuitive interface to assess and contextualize risk along potential routes, improving decision-making for secure transport. We present current progress in this effort and identify next steps.

Stewart, Robert [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000281867559)↗
NASA NTRS2024

Cali Urban Development II: Investigating the Impacts of Land Use Change on Urban Heat and Social Vulnerability in Cali, Colombia

The surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect is an environmental phenomenon resulting in cities with higher temperatures than rural areas due to increased pavement and decreased cooling from vegetation. The city of Santiago de Cali in Colombia faces SUHI challenges exacerbated by land use change. The Cali municipal government agency, Departamento Administrativo de Gestión del Medio Ambiente, and the community organization Fundacion Dinamizadores Ambientales partnered with NASA DEVELOP to evaluate communities in Cali most vulnerable to urban heat. This project illustrated the utility of using NASA Earth observations to evaluate the relationship between land use, temperature, and social factors in Cali, Colombia between 2013 and 2023. The team used Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), and Landsat 9 OLI-2/TIRS-2 to generate land surface temperature (LST) maps in Google Earth Engine through NASA DEVELOP’s Urban Heat Exposure Assessment Tempe 2.0 tool. Cloud cover limited the project feasibility, but it improved with Landsat 9 data. In ArcGIS Pro, the team found that LST was significantly higher in urban areas than in wetlands or forests. Using R Studio, the team ran a principal component analysis and found that health care and green space access were negatively correlated, and Afro-Colombian ethnicity was positively correlated with LST. With knowledge of the most impacted and vulnerable regions, the partner organizations can prioritize establishing healthcare facilities and green spaces in those areas to reduce the impacts of urban heat.

vegetation loss↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

The Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment workshop, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), was held on April 28-29, 2011 at The Madison Hotel in Washington, DC. A group of 56 experts (see list in Appendix B) convened to share their experiences. Participants brought to bear a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the social and natural sciences, sector experience, and knowledge about developing and implementing indicators for a range of purposes. Participants included representatives from federal and state government, non-governmental organizations, tribes, universities, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to assist the NCA in developing a strategic framework for climate-related physical, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators that can be easily communicated with the U.S. population and that will support monitoring, assessment, prediction, evaluation, and decision-making. The NCA indicators are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The workshop participants were asked to provide input on a number of topics, including: (1) categories of societal indicators for the NCA; (2) alternative approaches to constructing indicators and the better approaches for NCA to consider; (3) specific requirements and criteria for implementing the indicators; and (4) sources of data for and creators of such indicators. Socioeconomic indicators could include demographic, cultural, behavioral, economic, public health, and policy components relevant to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change as well as both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. Participants provided inputs through in-depth discussion in breakout sessions, plenary sessions on break-out results, and several panels that provided key insights about indicators, lessons learned through experience with developing and implementing indicators, and thoughts on how the NCA could proceed to develop indicators for the NCA.

Kenney, Melissa A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine-Learning-Based Mapping and Modeling of Solar Energy with Ultra-High Spatiotemporal Granularity

Despite the rapid growth of solar energy, we still lack a dynamic, high-fidelity database that tracks the spatiotemporal variations of solar PVs and their associated infrastructures across different places at a spatially resolved scale. The absence of such data presents a barrier to various applications such as solar PV growth projection, solar energy integration, solar incentive design, and climate risk assessment. In this project, we aim to bridge this gap by developing AI-based algorithms to extract granular information about solar PV installations and their associated infrastructures (i.e., distribution grids) from widely available unstructured data like remote sensing images and street views. As a result, we have built the Solar Energy Atlas, a fine-grained, large-scale geospatial overlay of distributed solar PVs and distribution grids. On top of it, we have advanced the understanding of solar adoption and distribution grid vulnerability to climate-induced extremes. Our major contributions can be summarized as follow: (1) By developing new AI algorithms, we have built the most comprehensive solar PV spatiotemporal database covering the entire US. This is the first time we obtained the exact GPS locations, size, subtype, and installation year information for rooftop solar PVs across the US. This database can be used for solar PV growth projection, solar energy integration, solar energy policy analysis and design, and spatially-resolved climate risk assessment. (2) Leveraging this database, we have uncovered the socioeconomic driving factors that are correlated with earlier onset of solar adoption and higher saturated adoption levels. We have identified the heterogeneity in the effects of different types of financial incentives on solar adoption and provided implications for tailoring incentive design based on local income levels to promote equitable solar adoption. (3) We have developed a distribution grid GIS mapping algorithm which can obtain granular geospatial and topology information about distribution grids using multi-modal open data, reducing the dependency on hard-to-obtain smart meter data of conventional approaches. It shows effectiveness in both the U.S. and Sub-Saharan Africa. Using this algorithm, we have uncovered the non-uniform vulnerability of distribution grids to wildfires in California in the aspects of undergrounding protection and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) preparedness. This has provided important implications for improving the affordability and equity of grid adaptation approaches. (3) We have made our produced database publicly available and provided user-friendly interface to enable various stakeholders and the general public to interact with the data. We have also integrated the produced data into the Data Commons platform to enable the public to access the data and correlate it with other location-specific characteristics simply using natural language as queries. The impact of our project is three-fold: (1) New algorithms for mapping solar PVs and distribution grids across space and time, which are open source to facilitate researchers and industry; (2) New databases of solar PVs and distribution grids that have been made publicly available for engineering, social, and policy applications; (3) New understandings and actionable insights on the potential approaches to promoting solar adoption and reducing energy infrastructure vulnerabilities. In this report, we start by discussing the project background and motivation (section 5), followed by the overview of project objectives (section 6). Results and discussion for each task are presented in section 7. Significant accomplishments are summarized in section 8. This report will be concluded by discussing the paths forwards (section 9), products (section 10), and team roles (section 11).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1975

Evaluation of high pressure water blast with rotating spray bar for removing paint and rubber deposits from airport runways, and review of runway slipperiness problems created by rubber contamination

A high pressure water blast with rotating spray bar treatment for removing paint and rubber deposits from airport runways is studied. The results of the evaluation suggest that the treatment is very effective in removing above surface paint and rubber deposits to the point that pavement skid resistance is restored to trafficked but uncontaminated runway surface skid resistance levels. Aircraft operating problems created by runway slipperiness are reviewed along with an assessment of the contributions that pavement surface treatments, surface weathering, traffic polishing, and rubber deposits make in creating or alleviating runway slipperiness. The results suggest that conventional surface treatments for both portland cement and asphaltic concrete runways are extremely vulnerable to rubber deposit accretions which can produce runway slipperiness conditions for aircraft operations as or more slippery than many snow and ice-covered runway conditions. Pavement grooving surface treatments are shown to be the least vulnerable to rubber deposits accretion and traffic polishing of the surface treatments examined.

Horne, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Consistent approach to describing aircraft HIRF protection

The high intensity radiated fields (HIRF) certification process as currently implemented is comprised of an inconsistent combination of factors that tend to emphasize worst case scenarios in assessing commercial airplane certification requirements. By examining these factors which include the process definition, the external HIRF environment, the aircraft coupling and corresponding internal fields, and methods of measuring equipment susceptibilities, activities leading to an approach to appraising airplane vulnerability to HIRF are proposed. This approach utilizes technically based criteria to evaluate the nature of the threat, including the probability of encountering the external HIRF environment. No single test or analytic method comprehensively addresses the full HIRF threat frequency spectrum. Additional tools such as statistical methods must be adopted to arrive at more realistic requirements to reflect commercial aircraft vulnerability to the HIRF threat. Test and analytic data are provided to support the conclusions of this report. This work was performed under NASA contract NAS1-19360, Task 52.

Rimbey, P. R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Speeding-up fuzzing through directional seeds

Abstract Fuzzing is an automated process for discovering inputs in a program that may trigger unexpected behavior. Today, fuzzing has become a standard practice for the discovery of bugs and security vulnerabilities. However, the main issue with such practices is that the exploration of the input space of programs can often be prohibitively expensive. Therefore, several alternative fuzzing strategies have been introduced during the last few years. Some fuzzing techniques rely on human expertise to provide a plausible set of initial input examples, namely, seeds. However, the process of handcrafting seeds for fuzzing purposes often becomes strenuous for humans as it requires a deeper understanding of the Program-Under-Test (PUT). Also, the use of known inputs to programs often does not trigger vulnerable program behavior or may not reach potentially vulnerable code locations. To address those issues, we propose a seed generation framework that enables Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) directed fuzzing where the human assumes a more active role in the creation of seeds that can penetrate and assess desired locations of the PUT. Our proposed framework uses Symbolic Execution (SE) to generate seeds that exercise paths to target program locations. Moreover, our framework enables the visualization of the explored execution paths in the binary of the PUT for the generated seeds. We evaluated our approach on a set of 12 carefully designed C programs with diverse characteristics that mimic real-world programs. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach in improving the performance of standard fuzzing tools such as the American Fuzzy Lop ("Image missing" <#comment/> ). Specifically, our solution can generate seeds that substantially enhance the performance of the fuzzer, achieving speedups ranging from $$1.46\times $$ 1.46 × to $$68.53\times $$ 68.53 × for branch conditions, $$1.39\times $$ 1.39 × to $$254.62\times $$ 254.62 × for branch depths, $$14,879.59\times $$ 14 , 879.59 × to $$30,295.88\times $$ 30 , 295.88 × for branch widths over traditional seeds. Additionally, the speedup increases with the number of target function ranging from $$12,260\times $$ 12 , 260 × to $$22,856.07\times $$ 22 , 856.07 × over traditional seeds while only requiring less than 15 seconds on average for the seed generation step.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Equipment Assessment Guide: A Technical Inspection and Hardening Guide for Devices in Power Grid Operations

This Equipment Assessment Guide, developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL), provides a comprehensive framework designed to enhance the security of operational technology (OT) devices within power grid operations. The guide outlines essential steps for asset owners to conduct technical inspections and harden vulnerable hardware and firmware components commonly found in embedded systems. It focuses on components frequently targeted by cyber threats, offering valuable identification techniques for locating and recognizing critical components on devices. Additionally, the guide presents recommended secure configurations aimed at minimizing exposure and reinforcing defenses, along with impact analysis that highlights the potential consequences for grid operations if components are compromised. By implementing the recommendations outlined in this guide, asset owners can significantly enhance their cybersecurity posture, reduce the attack surface of field-deployed devices, and improve the resilience of grid services against emerging cyber threats.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2010

Positive Voltage Hazard to EMU Crewman from Currents through Plasma

This paper describes the model of the EMU with a human body in the circuit that has been used by NASA to evaluate the low positive voltage hazard. The model utilizes the electron collection characterization from on orbit Langmuir probe data as representative of electron collection to a positive charged surface with a wide range of on orbit plasma temperature and density conditions. The data has been unified according to non-linear theoretical temperature and density variation of the electron saturated probe current collection theory and used as a model for the electron collection at EMU surfaces. Vulnerable paths through the EMU connecting through the crewman s body have been identified along with electrical impedance of the exposed body parts. The body impedance information is merged with the electron collection characteristics in circuit simulation software (SPICE). The assessment shows that currents can be on the order of 20 mA for a 15 V exposure and of order 4 mA at 3V. These currents formally violate NASA protocol for electric current exposures however the human factors associated with subjective consequences of noxious stimuli from low voltage exposure during the stressful conditions of EVA are an area of active inquiry.

Koontz, Steven L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Requirements and Recommendations for a Physical Attack Characterization Framework

This study seeks to identify existing frameworks or develop requirements and recommendations for a new framework that can consistently characterize physical attacks, analogous to MITRE ATT&CK®. MITRE ATT&CK is widely used across government, research organizations, and the cyber security community to characterize cyber attack tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) in a consistent and commonly understood manner. While physical attack taxonomies, methodologies, and other tools for evaluating physical security do exist, many are sector and/or facility-type specific—and therefore not able to provide comparable scenarios across sectors—or are more focused on security assessment instead of the characterization of attacks themselves. A MITRE ATT&CK analog for physical attacks on critical infrastructure would provide a common language and structure for analysis of physical attacks. Existing attack characterization methodologies do not robustly address cyber-physical security risks. To fully understand a facility’s security needs, it is important to understand the entire vulnerability landscape from both a physical and a cyber perspective. To underscore this need, organizations such as the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) are calling for a coordinated approach to cyber and physical security, which they refer to as cyber and physical security convergence. A physical attack characterization framework that could be used jointly with MITRE ATT&CK would help support a more robust analysis in support of convergence, enabling the consistent characterization of attacks that utilize both cyber and physical tactics and techniques. This could provide analysts and stakeholders with a clearer understanding of how security mitigations deployed in the physical realm impact security risks in the cyber realm, and vice versa. In this study, the project team evaluates existing physical security taxonomies and methodologies to assess whether an existing method can be used to create a “physical half” of MITRE ATT&CK. This study then provides requirements and recommendations for a framework that can leverage aspects of existing methodologies. The goal of the final framework is for it to be widely adopted and referenced, regardless of critical infrastructure sector, facility type, or facility components. This study also identifies applicable use cases for when and how a framework could be applied across the various critical infrastructure sectors for a variety of attack types or motivations. Through a literature review of existing security-focused methodologies and taxonomies, engagement with relative stakeholders, evaluation of potential physical attack framework use cases, and subsequent identification of requirements, this study identified the following key findings and recommendations: There is a need for a new physical attack characterization framework; A physical attack framework should be interoperable with the MITRE ATT&CK framework; A physical attack framework should be broadly applicable, but with detailed tactics, techniques, and procedures that encompass the entire attack path; A physical attack framework should be based on observed or feasible events; A physical attack framework should adapt features from existing methodologies, frameworks, and taxonomies; A physical attack framework should be owned, overseen, and maintained by one organization.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS2000

Reducing Software Security Risk Through an Integrated Approach

This paper discusses new joint work by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of California at Davis sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to develop a security assessment instrument for the software development and maintenance life cycle.

risk matrix↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using a Customized Portable Deepwater Portable Electrofisher to Assess Larval Lamprey Populations in Irrigation Canals

Larval lamprey densities were quantified at two large-scale water diversions facilities located on the Yakima River near the city of Yakima, Washington. Water diversions are very common in the Yakima River Basin and provide water to irrigate a diverse range of valuable cropland. Out-migrating larval Pacific Lamprey are vulnerable to entrainment through fish protection screens during the withdrawal period and desiccation or predation during dewatering at the end of the season. In order to determine the impact to lamprey populations which inhabit these regions a portable deepwater electroshocking system was utilized to determine lamprey densities which could otherwise not be determined due to water depth. Surveys were conducted in the fall during the dewatering period in 2015 and 2017 and larval lamprey densities ranged from 0.8 to 8.8 fish m-2 at the Sunnyside Diversion Facility to 4.2 to 6.5 fish m-2 at the Wapato Diversion Facility. The estimates for the total lamprey numbers at each of the region using a portable deepwater electrofishing platform (PDEP) was very similar to those estimates using backpack electrofishing post-dewatering; the PDEP method was 12- 36% higher where comparisons were available. During 2017, the estimated lamprey entrainment at the Sunnyside Diversion increased by 484% from August to November. Lamprey lengths were also determined and ranged from 50 to 130 mm. Our results indicate that the use of the deepwater shocking system was very safe and effective at determining larval lamprey densities at hard to sample regions which are present near irrigation facilities.

larval lamprey, electrofishing, water diversion↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Energy Resilience Assessment and Enhancement in Urban Communities: A Case Study in Detroit

This paper presents a data-driven framework for assessing and enhancing energy resilience in urban communities. The resilience assessment is based on two datasets: 1) annual aggregated power outage data and 2) 15-minute interval outage data. High-impact, low-probability (HILP) events are identified within these datasets to evaluate community resilience under extreme conditions. To enhance resilience, an optimization framework utilizing mixed integer linear programming is developed to determine the optimal sizing and placement of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems and battery energy storage systems (BESS). This method offers a cost-effective and practical solution for improving energy resilience in vulnerable communities. Furthermore, a case study of the City of Detroit in Michigan demonstrates the effectiveness of the framework through simulation and validation.

Energy resilience assessment↗
DOE OSTI2026

Geologic Seawater Air Conditioning (GeoSWAC) System: Resource Assessment and Techno-Economic Evaluation in Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico's hot, humid climate drives a high and persistent demand for cooling, straining an aging and fuel-dependent energy grid while increasing peak electricity loads. Much of this challenge stems from inefficient air-conditioning systems operating in buildings without passive cooling design, making cooling both costly and vulnerable to disruption - especially during hurricanes. To address these issues, researchers evaluated a new alternative called Geologic Seawater Air Conditioning (GeoSWAC), which uses inland wells connected to naturally cold, deep seawater. By avoiding long offshore pipelines and energy-intensive refrigeration cycles, GeoSWAC can cut electricity use by 75-90%, reduce environmental impacts, and operate more reliably during power outages. A case study at the University of Puerto Rico's Rio Piedras campus found that GeoSWAC could deliver significantly lower levelized costs of cooling, reduced operational expenses, and improved water conservation compared to the campus's existing chilled-water plant. The system offers key advantages - including access to a constant cold heat sink, low pumping requirements, and enhanced resilience - for coastal regions such as Puerto Rico, the broader Caribbean, and Florida. However, its effectiveness depends heavily on site-specific geological conditions, such as subsurface connectivity and aquifer characteristics, which require detailed investigation. Future research should refine hydrogeological models, conduct performance and economic analyses, and address regulatory and permitting frameworks to support broader adoption of this promising technology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗