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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Ground Motion Models (GMMs) Improvements Using Earthquake Simulations on High Performance Computers

A computationally efficient simulation platform was developed that can provide representative synthetic ground motions from crustal earthquakes in the Stable Continental Regions of Central and Eastern US (CEUS), using 3D modeling and high-performance computing. The main objective was to use synthetic ground motion to provide constrains to refinements of exiting ergodic Ground Motion Models (GMMs), for large magnitude earthquakes and near-fault distances, for which these models are less reliable. Physics-based broadband (0-5Hz) ground motion simulations were used to estimate the near-fault ground motion amplitudes and within event and between-event variabilities associated with fault rupture characteristics. As part of a strategy for selecting a reginal velocity model and validation of developed rupture modeling technique, ground motions from the moment magnitude Mw5.0 November 7, 2016, Cushing Oklahoma, and Mw5.8 September 3, 2016, Pawnee Oklahoma earthquakes were simulated. In our simulations we used a 3D regional velocity model that was based on Saikia’s 1D velocity model. Saikia’s model demonstrated better performance in modelling high frequency regional wave propagation for CEUS region. The proposed 3D model includes lateral variations added to the 1D background model using the stochastic scheme of Pitarka and Mellors. Comparisons of the simulations with recordings of both earthquakes demonstrated the reliability of our deterministic simulation approach while emphasizing the importance of including small-scale variability in the regional velocity model needed to reproduce the observed high-frequency wave scattering effects. As part of validation analysis, comparisons with different GMMs for a Mw6.5 earthquake in the CESUS region resulted in a very good match between the simulated and empirical ground motion models. Initial investigations of within-event and between-event ground motion variabilities for Mw6.5 scenario earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, suggest that they are strongly related to spatial slip and slip rate variations, average rupture velocity, rupture area and rupture initiation location. For certain scenarios we found that the ground motion variability observed at near-fault distances (< 5 km) also persists at longer distances. Regardless of the rupture scenario, the simulated ground motion tends to fully saturate at short distances and for all periods. The near-fault saturation has to do with the attenuation of waves propagating along the fault and local rupture radiation pattern that also contribute to stronger ground motion variation at such distances. Analysis of effects of rupture initiation location suggest that the peak ground motion (PGV) and spectral acceleration (SA) can be quite variable due to rupture directivity effects. Such effects are stronger at periods longer than 1s. The effect of the 1D velocity models and surface topography on simulated ground motion were investigated by comparing three component synthetic seismograms computed at selected sites. Effect of surface topography was considered using the ratio between spectral accelerations simulated for two 1D models with flat surface topography and realistic model with surface topography. Overall, the topography slightly amplifies (by ~30%) the ground motion amplitude in the frequency range 1-3Hz. The effect of topography is more visible in the surface and coda waves portion of the seismograms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Localized mix-induced radiative cooling in a capsule implosion at the National Ignition Facility

In this work, w present direct measurements of electron temperature variations within an inertially confined deuterium-tritium plasma caused by localized mix of higher-Z materials into the central hot spot. The data are derived from newly developed differentially filtered penumbral imaging of the bremsstrahlung continuum emission. Our analysis reveals distinct localized emitting features in the stagnated hot-spot plasma, and we infer spatial variations in the electron temperature: the mixed region is 660±130eV colder than the surrounding hot-spot plasma at 3.26±0.11keV. Our analysis of the energy flow shows that we measure approximately steady-state conditions where the radiative losses in the mix region are balanced by heat conduction from the surrounding hot deuterium-tritium plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Poster Abstract: Leveraging Large Language Models to Reveal Interpretable Cooling Behaviors from Smart Thermostat Data

Frequent heatwaves and hot summers increasingly challenge occupant comfort, health, and energy grid stability. Addressing these challenges requires a detailed understanding of household cooling behaviors, such as thermostat adjustments and adaptive responses to extreme conditions. Traditional analyses often rely on aggregated numerical metrics that overlook subtle but important household-specific variations. In this study, we introduce a generalizable methodology that integrates large language models (LLMs) with vision capabilities to enable scalable and detailed analysis of residential thermostat data. Using Ecobee's Donate Your Data (DYD) dataset—which provides five-minute records of indoor temperatures, thermostat setpoints, and HVAC runtimes—we focus on two U.S. cities with contrasting summer climates : Austin (TX) and Phoenix (AZ). Because raw time-series data are not well suited for direct LLM analysis, we transform them into visual representations, such as daily indoor temperature trajectories and weekly runtime histograms, to better capture behavioral variations. Leveraging LLMs' visual interpretation, we extract descriptive behavioral features, including temperature preferences, time-of-day cooling orientation, anticipatory versus reactive heatwave responses, and behavioral consistency. These semantic features support unsupervised clustering to identify distinct occupant archetypes at scale, revealing differences—such as morning-centric anticipatory coolers versus households that shift toward warmer setpoints during heatwaves—that can inform demand response, resilience planning, and health-aware interventions. By converting raw numerical data into interpretable behavioral patterns, this methodology enables scalable and practical analysis of occupant behavior, supporting actionable insights for comfort, resilience, and energy management.

Nihar, Kopal↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validation of the DESI DR2 measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations from galaxies and quasars

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2 (DR2) galaxy and quasar clustering data represents a significant expansion of data from Data Release 1 (DR1), providing improved statistical precision in baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) constraints across multiple tracers, including bright galaxies, luminous red galaxies, emission line galaxies, and quasars. In this paper, we validate the BAO analysis of DR2. We present the results of robustness tests on the blinded DR2 data and, after unblinding, consistency checks on the unblinded DR2 data. All results are compared with those obtained from a suite of mock catalogs that replicate the selection and clustering properties of the DR2 sample. We confirm the consistency of DR2 BAO measurements with DR1 while achieving a reduction in statistical uncertainties due to the increased survey volume and completeness. The combined BAO precision, including both statistical and systematic errors, improves from ∼0.52% in DR1 to 0.30% in DR2—a factor of 1.7 gain. We assess the impact of analysis choices, including different data vectors (correlation function vs power spectrum), modeling approaches and systematics treatments, and an assumption of the Gaussian likelihood, finding that our BAO constraints are stable across these variations and assumptions with a few minor refinements to the baseline setup of the DR1 BAO analysis. We summarize a series of pre-unblinding tests that confirmed the readiness of our analysis pipeline, the final systematic errors, and the DR2 BAO analysis baseline. The successful completion of these tests led to the unblinding of the DR2 BAO measurements, ultimately leading to the DESI DR2 cosmological analysis, with their implications for the expansion history of the Universe and the nature of dark energy presented in the DESI key paper (companion paper).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity analysis of the effect of wind and wake characteristics on wind turbine loads in a small wind farm

Abstract. Wind turbines are designed using a set of simulations to determine the fatigue and ultimate loads, which are typically focused solely on unwaked wind turbine operation. These structural loads can be significantly influenced by the wind inflow conditions. Turbines experience altered inflow conditions when placed in the wake of upstream turbines, which can additionally influence the fatigue and ultimate loads. It is important to understand the impact of uncertainty on the resulting loads of both unwaked and waked turbines. The goal of this work is to assess which wind-inflow-related and wake-related parameters have the greatest influence on fatigue and ultimate loads during normal operation for turbines in a three-turbine wind farm. Twenty-eight wind inflow and wake parameters are screened using an elementary effects sensitivity analysis approach to identify the parameters that lead to the largest variation in the fatigue and ultimate loads of each turbine. This study uses the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5 MW baseline wind turbine, simulated with OpenFAST and synthetically generated inflow based on the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Kaimal turbulence spectrum with the IEC exponential coherence model using the NREL tool TurbSim. The focus is on sensitivity to individual parameters, though interactions between parameters are considered, and how sensitivity differs between waked and unwaked turbines. The results of this work show that for both waked and unwaked turbines, ambient turbulence in the primary wind direction and shear are the most sensitive parameters for turbine fatigue and ultimate loads. Secondary parameters of importance for all turbines are identified as yaw misalignment, streamwise integral length, and the exponent and streamwise components of the IEC coherence model. The tertiary parameters of importance differ between waked and unwaked turbines. Tertiary effects account for up to 9.0 % of the significant events for waked turbine ultimate loads and include veer, non-streamwise components of the IEC coherence model, Reynolds stresses, wind direction, air density, and several wake calibration parameters. For fatigue loads, tertiary effects account for up to 5.4 % of the significant events and include vertical turbulence standard deviation, lateral and vertical wind integral lengths, non-streamwise components of the IEC coherence model, Reynolds stresses, wind direction, and all wake calibration parameters. This information shows the increased importance of non-streamwise wind components and wake parameters in the fatigue and ultimate load sensitivity of downstream turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Decoding the shift-invariant data: applications for band-excitation scanning probe microscopy *

A shift-invariant variational autoencoder (shift-VAE) is developed as an unsupervised method for the analysis of spectral data in the presence of shifts along the parameter axis, disentangling the physically-relevant shifts from other latent variables. Using synthetic data sets, we show that the shift-VAE latent variables closely match the ground truth parameters. The shift VAE is extended towards the analysis of band-excitation piezoresponse force microscopy data, disentangling the resonance frequency shifts from the peak shape parameters in a model-free unsupervised manner. The extensions of this approach towards denoising of data and model-free dimensionality reduction in imaging and spectroscopic data are further demonstrated. This approach is universal and can also be extended to analysis of x-ray diffraction, photoluminescence, Raman spectra, and other data sets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

KIC 10975348: A Double-mode or Triple-mode High-amplitude δ Scuti Star?

In this paper, we analyze the light variations of KIC 10975348 using photometric data delivered from the Kepler mission. This star is exceptionally faint (K {sub p} = 18.6 mag) compared to most well-studied δ Scuti stars. The Fourier analysis of the short-cadence data (i.e., Q14, Q15, and Q16, spanning 220 days) reveals that the variations are dominated by the strongest mode with a frequency of F0 = 10.231899 day{sup −1}, which is compatible with that obtained from RATS–Kepler. The other two independent modes with F1 (=13.4988 day{sup −1}) and F2 (=19.0002 day{sup −1}) are newly detected and have amplitudes two orders of magnitude smaller than F0. We note that, for the first time, this star is identified to be a high-amplitude δ Sct (HADS) star with an amplitude of about 0.7 mag, and the lower ratio of F0/F1 = 0.758 suggests that it might be a metal-rich variable star. The frequency F2 may be a third overtone mode, suggesting that this target might be a new radial triple-mode HADS star. We perform an O − C analysis using 1018 newly determined times of maximum light and derive an ephemeris formula of T {sub max} = 2456170.241912(0)+0.097734(1) × E. The O − C diagram shows that the pulsation period of KIC 10975348 seems to show no obvious change, which is in contrast to that of the majority of HADS stars. The possible cause of that may be due to the current short time span of the observations. To verify its possible period variations, regular observation from space with a longer time span in the future is needed.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unsupervised learning approaches to characterizing heterogeneous samples using X-ray single-particle imaging

One of the outstanding analytical problems in X-ray single-particle imaging (SPI) is the classification of structural heterogeneity, which is especially difficult given the low signal-to-noise ratios of individual patterns and the fact that even identical objects can yield patterns that vary greatly when orientation is taken into consideration. Proposed here are two methods which explicitly account for this orientation-induced variation and can robustly determine the structural landscape of a sample ensemble. The first, termed common-line principal component analysis (PCA), provides a rough classification which is essentially parameter free and can be run automatically on any SPI dataset. The second method, utilizing variation auto-encoders (VAEs), can generate 3D structures of the objects at any point in the structural landscape. Both these methods are implemented in combination with the noise-tolerant expand–maximize–compress (EMC) algorithm and its utility is demonstrated by applying it to an experimental dataset from gold nanoparticles with only a few thousand photons per pattern. Both discrete structural classes and continuous deformations are recovered. These developments diverge from previous approaches of extracting reproducible subsets of patterns from a dataset and open up the possibility of moving beyond the study of homogeneous sample sets to addressing open questions on topics such as nanocrystal growth and dynamics, as well as phase transitions which have not been externally triggered.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Objective Optimization of a Bi-Metal High-Temperature Recuperator for Application in Concentrating Solar Power

Supercritical CO 2 closed Brayton cycles are a major candidate for future power cycle designs in concentrating solar power applications, with high-temperature recuperators playing an essential role in realizing their high thermal efficiency. Here, printed circuit heat exchangers (PCHEs) are often chosen for this role due to their thermal-hydraulic and mechanical performance at high temperatures and pressures, all while remaining compact. However, PCHEs can be costly because of the high-performance materials demanded in these applications, and the heat exchanger internal geometry is restricted by their manufacturing process. Additively manufactured heat exchangers can address both of these shortcomings. This work proposes a modular bi-metal high-temperature recuperator with integrated headers to be produced with additive manufacturing. Beginning with existing PCHE channel geometries, a 1D heat exchanger model is developed. Then, multi-objective optimization is used to maximize the heat transfer effectiveness of a lab-scale device while limiting its size. Two distinct channel geometries emerge from the optimization. Optimal designs achieve up to 88% effectiveness with negligible pressure drop. Deterioration of effectiveness due to axial conduction of heat in the heat exchanger walls is found to be a notable problem for lab-scale PCHEs, and the optimal designs obtained here minimize its detrimental effects. A sensitivity analysis reveals that the effectiveness of the recuperator is much less sensitive to variation in mass flowrate in off-design operation when axial conduction is significant, while increasing the length of the device easily increases effectiveness.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hidden Features: How Subsurface and Landscape Heterogeneity Govern Hydrologic Connectivity and Stream Chemistry in a Montane Watershed

ABSTRACT Hydrologic connectivity is defined as the connection among stores of water within a watershed and controls the flux of water and solutes from the subsurface to the stream. Hydrologic connectivity is difficult to quantify because it is goverened by heterogeniety in subsurface storage and permeability and responds to seasonal changes in precipitation inputs and subsurface moisture conditions. How interannual climate variability impacts hydrologic connectivity, and thus stream flow generation and chemistry, remains unclear. Using a rare, four‐year synoptic stream chemistry dataset, we evaluated shifts in stream chemistry and stream flow source of Coal Creek, a montane, headwater tributary of the Upper Colorado River. We leveraged compositional principal component analysis and end‐member mixing to evaluate how seasonal and interannual variation in subsurface moisture conditions impacts stream chemistry. Overall, three main findings emerged from this work. First, three geochemically distinct end members were identified that constrained stream flow chemistry: reach inflows, and quick and slow flow groundwater contributions. Reach inflows were impacted by historic base and precious metal mine inputs. Bedrock fractures facilitated much of the transport of quick flow groundwater and higher‐storage subsurface features (e.g., alluvial fans) facilitated the transport of slow flow groundwater. Second, the contributions of different end members to the stream changed over the summer. In early summer, stream flow was composed of all three end members, while in late summer, it was composed predominantly of reach inflows and slow flow groundwater. Finally, we observed minimal differences in proportional composition in stream chemistry across all four years, indicating seasonal variability in subsurface moisture and spatial heterogeneity in landscape and geologic features had a greater influence than interannual climate fluctuation on hydrologic connectivity and stream water chemistry. These findings indicate that mechanisms controlling solute transport (e.g., hydrologic connectivity and flow path activation) may be resilient (i.e., able to rebound after perturbations) to predicted increases in climate variability. By establishing a framework for assessing compositional stream chemistry across variable hydrologic and subsurface moisture conditions, our study offers a method to evaluate watershed biogeochemical resilience to variations in hydrometeorological conditions.

Johnson, Keira [College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmos↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of tritium effluent from Prototype Generation IV Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor

We report a tritium transport model for a pool-type sodium cooled fast reactor was developed for estimation of tritium effluents from the Prototype Generation IV Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (PGSFR). For this purpose, the transport model developed for Experimental Breeder Reactor II and Fast Flux Test Facility was updated and validated. The tritium production rate from ternary fission and activations in PGSFR were calculated by the Argonne Reactor Computation (ARC) code suite for fast reactor analysis, and due to the potential uncertainties in source terms and variations of cold trap performance and material permeability during reactor operation, the tritium distributions and tritium effluents were estimated for several bounding cases. The upper bounding gaseous and liquid tritium release rates from PGSFR are similar to ~440.7 Ci/year and 14.7 Ci/year, respectively. The gaseous tritium effluent is about few orders of magnitude smaller than the regulatory constraint of the tritium concentration in the air. The peak tritium concentration in the steam-generator feedwater is similar to ~1.1x10 -3 mu Ci/g, which is required to be diluted prior to releasing as tritiated water. The accumulated tritium in the cold trap after five cycle operations is ~ 52,000 Ci. Because of significant conservatism in these upper bounding estimations, it is expected that the tritium effluent at the nominal case with plausible source terms would be about 2 orders of magnitude smaller than that of the upper bounding case.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Influence of fertilization on the dynamics of energy use in wheat

Plant energy use is fundamental to plant survival and growth. However, we still lack effective means to quantify plant energy use strategies. This study introduced a concept quantifying the light level at which photochemical and non-photochemical energy use in plants are in equilibrium — the photochemical compensation point (PCCP) which can be determined with chlorophyll fluorescence measurements. We used winter wheat as a test case to explore the dynamics of PCCP and its physiological and biochemical regulations. Winter wheat PCCP decreased significantly across growth stages from jointing to grain filling. Long-term nitrogen and phosphate (NP) fertilization significantly increased PCCP, whereas potassium (K) and manure (M) fertilizer supplementation had negligible effects. PCCP exhibited significant positive correlations with leaf thickness, leaf P and sulfur (S), and stomatal conductance (gs) across all growth stages. All manure-amended treatments exhibited positive correlations of PCCP with leaf N, P, K and gs, and negative correlations with leaf calcium (Ca). Random forest analysis revealed that gs was the most significant predictor of PCCP variation, followed by leaf P, iWUE, and leaf thickness across all treatments. We suggest that plant energy use strategies are strongly coupled with plant water use strategies and nutrient availability through a complex interplay of effects on physiological and biochemical traits.

energy allocation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evidence of Long-Range and Short-Range Magnetic Ordering in the Honeycomb Na 3 Mn 2 SbO 6 Oxide

We present a comprehensive study of the synthesis, structure, and magnetic properties of the honeycomb oxide Na 3 Mn 2 SbO 6 supported by neutron diffraction, heat capacity, and magnetization measurements. The refinements of the neutron diffraction patterns (150, 50, and 45 K) using the Rietveld method confirm the monoclinic (S. G. C2/m) structure. Temperature-dependent magnetic susceptibilities measured at varying fields along with the heat capacity measurements demonstrate the coexistence of long-range ordering (∼42 K) and short-range ordering (∼65 K). The field-dependent isothermal magnetization measurements at 5 K indicate a spin-flop transition around 5 T. Rietveld refinements of the low-temperature (below 45 K) neutron diffraction data further confirm the long-range magnetic ordering. In addition, the temperature variation of the lattice parameters obtained from the neutron powder diffraction analysis exhibited a distinct anomaly near the antiferromagnetic transition temperature. The appearance of the concomitant broadened backgrounds in the neutron powder diffraction data collected at 80, 50, and 45 K supports the short-range ordering. The resultant magnetic structure consists of spins that are aligned antiparallel with the nearest neighbors and also with the spins of the adjacent honeycomb layers. The occurrence of a fully ordered magnetic ground state (Neel antiferromagnetic (AFM)) in Na3Mn 2 SbO 6 consolidates the significance of fabricating new honeycomb oxides.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Responses of Contact Kelvin Probe Force Microscopy in Triple-Cation Double-Halide Perovskites

Hybrid organic–inorganic perovskite (HOIP) solar cells have undergone unprecedentedly rapid improvement in power conversion efficiencies during the last decade, but controversy remains regarding the role of local phenomena and heterogeneity in grain by grain. These challenges in turn necessitate understanding the fundamental mechanisms operating at individual grains and exploring how these mechanisms give rise to the collective behaviors of the films. Although numerous efforts have targeted local phenomena in these materials using classical scanning probe microscopy modalities, the measurements remain difficult to interpret due to intrinsic coupling between possible ferroelectric, ion migration, bulk and surface electrochemical phenomena, and the effects of light on these behaviors. Here, we explore the electromechanical responses in (Cs 0.05 FA 0.85 MA 0.15 )Pb(I 0.85 Br 0.15 ) 3 perovskite thin film in the dark and under illumination using band excitation-piezoresponse force microscopy (BE-PFM). To identify and separate ferroic, electrostatic, and electrochemical responses, we utilize contact-Kelvin probe force microscopy (cKPFM). The cKPFM responses show weak variability with morphological features in the dark, while such variability significantly increases under illumination. Deconvolution of the cKPFM responses via principal component analysis (PCA) shows heterogeneity in grain to grain possibly due to variation in migration and segregation of halide ions in mixed perovskites at specific grains. Further, we propose an electrostatic mechanism based on the physics of semiconductors, which can directly link the observed cKPFM behaviors with the ionic and electronic density of states (DOS) and their time dynamics. Here, these findings suggest that cKPFM is a powerful probe of local ionic behaviors on the nanoscale, both in HOIPs and other materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tidally Modulated Glacial Slip and Tremor at Helheim Glacier, Greenland

Numerical modeling of ice sheet motion and hence projections of global sea level rise require information about the evolving subglacial environment, which unfortunately remains largely unknown due to its difficulty of access. Here we advance such subglacial observations by reporting multi–year observations of seismic tremor likely associated with glacier sliding at Helheim Glacier. This association is confirmed by correlation analysis between tremor power and multiple environmental forcings on different timescales. Variations of the observed tremor power indicate that different factors affect glacial sliding on different timescales. Effective pressure may control glacial sliding on long (seasonal/annual) timescales, while tidal forcing modulates the sliding rate and tremor power on short (hourly/daily) timescales. Polarization results suggest that the tremor source comes from an upstream subglacial ridge. This observation provides insights on how different factors should be included in ice sheet modeling and how their timescales of variability play an essential role.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temperature and Water Levels Collectively Regulate Methane Emissions From Subtropical Freshwater Wetlands

Abstract Wetlands are the largest and most climate‐sensitive natural sources of methane. Accurately estimating wetland methane emissions involves reconciling inversion (“top‐down”) and process‐based (“bottom‐up”) models within the global methane budget. However, estimates from these two model types are inherently interdependent and often reveal substantial discrepancies. To enhance the reliability of both approaches, we need a comprehensive understanding of wetland methane emissions and an independent high‐resolution long‐term flux data set. Here, we employed a data‐driven random forest approach to identify key variables influencing methane emissions from subtropical freshwater wetlands in the Southeastern United States. The model‐estimated monthly mean methane fluxes fit well with measured methane fluxes ( R 2 = 0.67) at four representative FLUXNET‐CH4 wetland sites across the region. Variable importance analysis highlighted the sensitivity of subtropical freshwater wetland methane emissions to variations in both temperature and water levels. High temperatures facilitate methanogenesis by enhancing microbial activities, while elevated water levels maintain anaerobic conditions necessary for methane production. Notably, the response of methane emissions to water level fluctuations is contingent on temperature conditions, and vice versa. Moreover, we constructed the first high‐spatial‐resolution (∼1 km × 1 km) and long‐term (1982–2010) gridded regional wetland methane flux product for the Southeastern United States, estimating annual methane emissions from subtropical freshwater wetlands in the region at 4.93 ± 0.11 Tg CH 4 yr −1 for 1982–2010. This new benchmark product holds promise for validating and parameterizing uncertain wetland methane emission processes in bottom‐up models and provides improved prior information for top‐down models.

He, Keqi [Earth and Climate Sciences Nicholas Scho↗
DOE OSTI2022

Moment expansion of polarized dust SED: A new path towards capturing the CMB B -modes with LiteBIRD

Accurate characterization of the polarized dust emission from our Galaxy will be decisive in the quest for the cosmic microwave background (CMB) primordial B-modes. An incomplete modeling of its potentially complex spectral properties could lead to biases in the CMB polarization analyses and to a spurious measurement of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r. It is particularly crucial for future surveys like the LiteBIRD satellite, the goal of which is to constrain the faint primordial signal leftover by inflation with an accuracy on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r of the order of 10 –3 . Variations of the dust properties along and between lines of sight lead to unavoidable distortions of the spectral energy distribution (SED) that cannot be easily anticipated by standard component-separation methods. This issue can be tackled using a moment expansion of the dust SED, an innovative parametrization method imposing minimal assumptions on the sky complexity. In the present paper, we apply this formalism to the B-mode cross-angular power spectra computed from simulated LiteBIRD polarization data at frequencies between 100 and 402 GHz that contain CMB, dust, and instrumental noise. The spatial variation of the dust spectral parameters (spectral index β and temperature T) in our simulations lead to significant biases on r (~21 σ r ) if not properly taken into account. Performing the moment expansion in β, as in previous studies, reduces the bias but does not lead to sufficiently reliable estimates of r. We introduce, for the first time, the expansion of the cross-angular power spectra SED in both β and T, showing that, at the sensitivity of LiteBIRD, the SED complexity due to temperature variations needs to be taken into account in order to prevent analysis biases on r. Thanks to this expansion, and despite the existing correlations between some of the dust moments and the CMB signal responsible for a rise in the error on r, we can measure an unbiased value of the tensor-to-scalar ratio with a dispersion as low as σ r = 8.8 × 10 –4 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Misinterpreting modified gravity as dark energy: a quantitative study

Standard cosmological data analyses typically constrain simple phenomenological dark-energy parameters, for example the present-day value of the equation of state parameter, w 0 , and its variation with scale factor, w a . However, results from such an analysis cannot easily indicate the presence of modified gravity. Even if general relativity does not hold, experimental data could still be fit sufficiently well by a phenomenological w 0 w a CDM, unmodified-gravity model. Hence, it would be very useful to know if there are generic signatures of modified gravity in standard analyses. Here we present, for the first time to our knowledge, a quantitative mapping showing how modified gravity models look when (mis)interpreted within the standard unmodified-gravity analysis. Scanning through a broad space of modified-gravity (Horndeski) models, and assuming a near-future survey consisting of CMB, BAO, and SNIa observations, we report values of the best-fit set of cosmological parameters including (w 0 , w a ) that would be inferred if modified gravity were at work. We find that modified gravity models that can masquerade as standard gravity lead to very specific biases in standard-parameter spaces. Here, we also comment on implications for measurements of the amplitude of mass fluctuations described by the parameter S 8 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗