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At least 451 records · Page 25

Uncertainty quantification for Joule heating processes in fibrous pore-resolved media

Joule heating (JH) is an energy-efficient and sustainable technique for heating materials. Its application for industrial heating, particularly, has been gaining attention due to its potential for increasing the yield of various chemical products. The process involves the use of heating elements (materials that are highly conductive electrically and thermally) to heat up other materials or substances. These conductors, however, can exhbit varying degrees of uncertainty due to non-linearities in their temperature-dependent properties, which could result in variable material behavior. In this work, we carry out uncertainty quantification (UQ) at the pore scale to describe the uncertainty of such materials. In so doing, we applied the non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) technique to quantify the uncertainty within the system. The steady state Joule heating equation was solved numerically at the pore scale mimicking conditions within a heating chamber for propane dehydrogenation, and various electro-thermal profiles were obtained. We also examined the effect of the number of sampling points (20 – 100) and order of the PCE coefficients (2 – 5) on the accuracy of the temperature evaluations. The results were then benchmarked with the standard Monte Carlo (MC) method. The average temperature of the 4th-order global PCE showed good agreement with the MC results (which were positively skewed). Orders greater than 4 gave an underestimation of the temperatures while predictions for the peak temperature improved as the number of sampling points increased.

Fagbemi, Samuel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000236995025)↗

River Dynamics Control Transit Time Distributions and Biogeochemical Reactions in a Dam-Regulated River Corridor

Residence Time Distributions (RTDs) exert an important control on biogeochemical translation in the hydrological systems. Previous tracer studies have revealed that RTDs often followed time-invariant exponential, lognormal, or heavy-tailed RTDs that have power-law behavior for long tails in headwater or low-order streams. However, there is a recognition that RTDs can be more complicated and time-variable in response to dynamic hydrological forcing. Here, we use particle tracking to estimate RTDs along the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River and to quantify the influences of river stage fluctuations. Particle tracking is conducted using the velocity field from high-resolution 3D groundwater flow simulations. The effects of hydrological forcing on the residence time distribution were evaluated by varying river flow boundary conditions and releasing particles in different time windows. Our results revealed that dynamic stage fluctuations created rapidly changing losing-gaining conditions in the river and led to highly transient RTDs, which contributes to multiple modes of RTDs. Dam-induced high-frequency (sub-daily) flow variation contributes to the short-time (sub-daily) component of the RTDs. Deviation of the reactant consumption under the single-mode assumption compared to the multimodal RTDs is relatively small (~5%) and appears when the Damköhler number was close to one.More specifically, high-frequency (daily) dam-induced stage variations have higher impacts on biogeochemical reactions with faster reaction rate, and can potentially increase the reactant consumption by 26.68%. Based on these findings, we suggest that current river basin models could be improved by including bank storage and more complex RTDs influenced by both short and long term river stage fluctuations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

New Evidence for the Importance of Non-Stomatal Pathways in Ozone Deposition During Extreme Heat and Dry Anomalies

Dry deposition could partially explain the observed response in ambient ozone to extreme hot and dry episodes. We examine the response of ozone deposition to heat and dry anomalies using three long-term co-located ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide, water vapor and ozone flux measurement records. We find that, as expected, canopy stomatal conductance generally decreases during days with dry air or soil. However, during hot days, concurrent increases in non-stomatal conductance are inferred at all three sites, which may be related to several temperature-sensitive processes not represented in the current generation of big-leaf models. This may offset the reduction in stomatal conductance, leading to smaller net reduction, or even net increase, in total deposition velocity. We find the response of deposition velocity to soil dryness may be related to its impact on photosynthetic activity, though considerable variability exists. Our findings emphasize the need for better understanding and representation of non-stomatal ozone deposition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Descriptor: High Temporal Resolution Meteorological Data at Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR-HiResMet)

Access to continuous, quality assessed meteorological data is critical for understanding the climatology and atmospheric dynamics of a region. Research facilities like Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) rely on such data to assess site-specific climatology, model potential emissions, establish safety baselines, and prepare for emergency scenarios. To meet these needs, on-site towers at ORNL collect meteorological data at 15-minute and hourly intervals. However, data measurements from meteorological towers are affected by sensor sensitivity, degradation, lightning strikes, power fluctuations, glitching, and sensor failures, all of which can affect data quality. To address these challenges, we conducted a comprehensive quality assessment and processing of five years of meteorological data collected from ORNL at 15-minute intervals, including measurements of temperature, pressure, humidity, wind, and solar radiation. The time series of each variable was pre-processed and gap-filled using established meteorological data collection and cleaning techniques, i.e., the time series were subjected to structural standardization, data integrity testing, automated and manual outlier detection, and gap-filling. The data product and highly generalizable processing workflow developed in Python Jupyter notebooks are publicly accessible online. As a key contribution of this study, the evaluated 5-year data will be used to train atmospheric dispersion models that simulate dispersion dynamics across the complex ridge-and-valley topography of the Oak Ridge Reservation in East Tennessee.

Steckler, Morgan R. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory↗

A Numerical Study of Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay Using an Unstructured Grid Model: Validation and Sensitivity to Bathymetry Representation

A three-dimensional unstructured-grid hydrodynamic and water quality model (Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Intergrated System Model-Integrated Compartment Model) is applied successfully for Chesapeake Bay. The model is validated with observations of salinity, chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, nutrients, and phytoplankton productions from the year 1991 to 1995 for the mainstem and some major tributaries, based on multiple model skill scores. Model experiments are conducted to test the importance of having (1) an accurate representation of bathymetry to correctly predict hypoxia and other processes and (2) a high-resolution model grid for tributaries to correctly simulate water quality variables. Further, comparison with the model experiment results with bathymetry smoothing indicates that bathymetry smoothing, as commonly used for many systems, changes the stratification and lateral circulation pattern, resulting in more salt intrusion into shallow water regions, and an increase in the freshwater age. Consequently, a model with bathymetry smoothing can lead to an unrealistic prediction of the distribution of hypoxia and phytoplankton production. Local grid refinement shows significant improvement of model simulations on local stratification and water quality variables. Overall, the use of high-resolution unstructured grid model leads to a faithful representation of the complex geometry, and thus a seamless cross-scale capability for simulating water quality processes in the Bay including tributaries and tidal creeks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hardware-in-the-loop Laboratory Performance Verification of Flexible Building Equipment in a Typical Commercial Building

This project aims to develop high-resolution equipment performance and occupant data that quantifies demand flexibility in typical commercial buildings. The dataset documented in this report includes comprehensive time-series measurements from hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) experiments conducted across multiple testbeds designed to simulate realistic operational environments for HVAC systems. Specifically, it captures minute-by-minute high-resolution data on the performance of various typical HVAC systems, including a variable-air-volume (VAV) air handling unit (AHU) system with chillers and an ice tank in the Intelligent Building Agents Laboratory (IBAL) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), a two-stage air-source heat pump (ASHP) at the NIST, and a water-source heat pump (WSHP) at Texas A&M University (TAMU). The data were generated under a range of controlled conditions reflecting different grid scenarios and climatic influences, as well as various control strategies, building types, occupancy patterns, and occupant behaviors. This dataset provides DE-EE0009153 Final Report 5 detailed insights into the demand flexibility of these systems, including their response to grid signals, occupant behaviors, energy consumption patterns, and operational efficiency under different conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Oxidation Temperature-Dependent Electrochemical Doping of WO 3 Deposited via Atomic Layer Deposition

Silicon-based photoelectrochemical devices show promise for the performance of light-driven CO 2 reduction but suffer from instability under photoelectrochemical conditions relevant to CO 2 reduction. Coating silicon electrodes with thin layers of metal oxides has shown promise to passivate unstable silicon surfaces, and many different metal oxides can be deposited on silicon using various techniques. In this study, we investigate the fundamental photoelectrochemical performance of WO 3 -coated silicon photoelectrodes, which were generated by oxidation of W-metal films deposited via atomic layer deposition on both degenerately doped (nSi + ) and low-doped (pSi) silicon. Two different oxidation temperatures were investigated (400 and 600 °C), and it was found that the monoclinic phase of WO 3 predominates at both temperatures but that more grain boundaries are present in the 600 °C film. From X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, the stoichiometry of both films was found to be 1:3 W:O, and low electron energy loss experiments indicate band gaps of 3.0 and 3.1 eV for 400 and 600 °C films, respectively. Cyclic voltammetry experiments showed that the electron transfer kinetics increased after continued redox cycling, particularly for the material produced at 400 °C. X-ray photoelectron spectra suggest that the observed increase in electrode conductivity is due to the formation of oxygen vacancies in the film. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy indicated that charge transport through the films was impacted by the grain boundaries that formed during oxidation of the film. Photoelectrochemical studies on pSi/WO 3 electrodes were highly variable, only producing a photocurrent and photovoltage with some samples. Our best sample, formed at 400 °C, produced a photovoltage of 180 mV, which is lower than what has previously been reported for WO 3 -coated silicon (500 mV). We hypothesize that the variability in photoelectrochemical experiments arose from a roughened WSiO x interface that is generated during film preparation. WO 3 shows promise as a metal oxide coating for silicon, but our results suggest that formation of a high-quality interface between Si and WO 3 is vital for best performance.

Charge transfer↗

Quantification of Brønsted Acid Sites in Zeolites by Water Desorption Thermogravimetry

The many studies that have been conducted on water adsorption on zeolites were carried out in “adsorption” mode, from adsorption isotherms or single-point measurements, with the samples being first degassed at high temperature, and then exposed to water vapor at variable partial pressure. Here, we report Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) studies of HZSM-5 saturated with water at room temperature, thus studying water adsorption in “desorption” mode. In this work, TGA was used to ascertain the amount of water remaining as a function of the pretreatment temperature, and to identify the temperature at which one water molecule per framework Al atom persists. Solid-state 1H NMR spectroscopy, combined with molecular modeling, provided evidence for water molecules hydrogen bonded to Brønsted acid sites and formation of oxonium species for distinct water per framework Al atom. TGA is shown to be a simple and expeditious technique to measure the number of Brønsted acid sites in aluminosilicate zeolites, with advantages over the traditional methods of IR or TPD of dangerous adsorbed ammonia or pyridine. TGA of adsorbed water also provides information on the water clusters formed at the acid sites of HZSM-5, which are proportional to the number of acid sites.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ponderosa pine hydraulic stress predicts more extreme wildfire behavior under future conditions in Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

Background Live fuel moisture contributes to wildfire spread and reflects plant stress and physiological traits. The anticipated change in live fuel moisture under future conditions is likely non-linear, owing to physiological plant thresholds in water hydraulics. We constructed a mechanistic model of live fuel moisture’s response to water stress to understand the impact of future climate on live fuel moisture. We first gathered data on plant physiology and live fuel moisture for Pinus ponderosa at Bandelier National Monument, NM, USA, and modeled their relationship. We then parameterized a mechanistic plant hydrodynamics model (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate changes in plant stress and a statistical model to simulate the resulting impact on live fuel moisture. We then simulated FATES-HYDRO under future climate anomalies (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5: 2080–2100) to understand the change in plant stress and estimate its impact on live fuel moisture. Results We found that the number of days below crucial thresholds of live fuel moisture (100% and 79%) increased from contemporary levels (< 100%: 72 days, < 79%: 1.4 days) under SSP2-4.5 (< 100%: 185 days, < 79%: 10.2 day) and increased exponentially under SSP5-8.5 (< 100%: 215 days, < 79%: 65 days). We found that gross primary productivity decreased under both future climate scenarios (contemporary: 336 g C m −2 , SSP2-4.5: 203 g C m −2 , SSP5-8.5: 243 g C m −2 ); however, spring productivity increased under SSP5-8.5, potentially altering fuel loading. We additionally see a potentially lethal loss of conductivity in hydraulic P. ponderosa under SSP5-8.5. Conclusions The overall increase in plant water stress (as represented by loss of hydraulic conductivity and leaf water potential) and lower live fuel moisture appear to be driven by reduced precipitation during late summer monsoons typical of the region, extending the fire season later in the year. We predict increasing variability in the P. ponderosa wildfire regime under both climate projections driven by changing productivity, rising mortality, and an overall decrease in live fuel moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

2019 Cost of Wind Energy Review

This report uses representative utility-scale and distributed wind energy projects to estimate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for land-based and offshore wind power plants in the United States. Data and results detailed here are derived from 2019 commissioned plants and representative industry data as well as state-of-the-art modeling capabilities. Modeling is conducted to provide more granular detail on specific cost categories. This report represents the ninth annual installment and is intended to provide insight into current component-level costs as well as a basis for understanding variability in wind energy LCOE across the country.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

2020 Cost of Wind Energy Review

This report uses representative utility-scale and distributed wind energy projects to estimate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for land-based and offshore wind power plants in the United States. Data and results detailed here are derived from 2020 commissioned plants and representative industry data as well as state-of-the-art modeling capabilities. Modeling is conducted to provide more granular detail on specific cost categories. This report represents the tenth annual installment and is intended to provide insight into current component-level costs as well as a basis for understanding variability in wind energy LCOE across the country.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

2021 Cost of Wind Energy Review [Slides]

This analysis uses representative utility-scale and distributed wind energy projects to estimate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for land-based, offshore, and distributed wind power in the United States. Data and results detailed here are derived from 2021 commissioned plants and representative industry data as well as state-of-the-art modeling capabilities. Modeling is conducted to provide more granular detail on specific cost categories. This study represents the 11th annual installment and is intended to provide insight into current component-level costs as well as a basis for understanding variability in wind energy LCOE across the country.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Sensor Incipient Fault Impacts on Building Energy Performance: A Case Study on a Multi-Zone Commercial Building

Existing studies show sensor faults/error could double building energy consumption and carbon emissions compared with the baseline. Those studies assume that the sensor error is fixed or constant. However, sensor faults are incipient in real conditions and there were extremely limited studies investigating the incipient sensor fault impacts systematically. This study filled in this research gap by studying time-developing sensor fault impacts to rule-based controls on a 10-zone office building. The control sequences for variable air volume boxes (VAV) with an air handling unit (AHU) system were selected based on ASHRAE Guideline 36-2018: High-Performance Sequences of Operation for HVAC Systems. Large-scale simulations on cloud were conducted (3600 cases) through stochastic approach. Results show (1) The site energy differences could go –3.3% lower or 18.1% higher, compared with baseline. (2) The heating energy differences could go –66.5% lower or 314.4% higher, compared with baseline. (3) The cooling energy differences could go –11.5% lower or 65.0% higher, compared with baseline. (4) The fan energy differences could go 0.15% lower or 6.9% higher, compared with baseline.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Validation of the Community Land Model Version 5 over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using in situ and remote sensing data sets

The Community Land Model (CLM) is an effective tool to simulate the biophysical and biogeochemical processes and their interactions with the atmosphere. Although CLM Version 5 (CLM5) constitutes various updates in these processes, its performance in simulating energy, water and carbon cycles over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) at scales which land surface changes and hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological applications are more locally relevant is yet to be assessed. In this study, we conducted three simulations at 0.125? during 1979-2018 over the CONUS using different configurations of CLM, namely CLM5-biogeochemistry (CLM5BGC), CLM4.5BGC, and CLM5-satellite phenology (CLM5SP). We validated and compared their simulations against multiple remote-sensed and in-situ datasets. Overall, the parametric and structural updates (e.g., carbon cost for nitrogen uptake, variable soil thickness, dry surface layer) in CLM5 improve its ability in capturing terrestrial biogeochemical dynamics. The low evapotranspiration in CLM5BGC is associated with biases in simulating vegetation phenological characteristics rather than soil water limitations. The mismatch between CLM5BGC-simulated peak leaf area index and reference data can be attributed to CLM5BGC's inability in simulating phenology of trees and grasses. The differences between CLM-simulated irrigation and reference estimates can be attributed to differences between processes represented in models and in reality, and uncertainties in input and validation datasets. Evaluation against observations at small catchments suggest that hydrologic parameters needed to be calibrated to improve simulations of runoff, especially subsurface runoff. Additional efforts are needed to incorporate spatially-distributed plant phenology and physiology parameters and regional-specific agricultural management practices (e.g., planting, harvest).

Cheng, Yanyan↗

A comparison between residential relocation timing of Sydney and Chicago residents: A Bayesian survival analysis

We report that understanding households' behaviour in residential relocation timing is of great importance in the field of transport engineering and economics. This research aims to develop a residential relocation model by considering the potential dynamic impacts of other households' decisions and variables, including economic and demographic attributes, housing features, intra-household decision-making structures, travel mode choice, and other life-course attributes. A multivariate parametric survival model with both fixed and time-varying covariates is developed. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first paper in the literature of residential relocation timing to propose the use of a Bayesian model in contrast to the widely used classic frequentist approach and have conducted a discussion on its advantages. An emerging residential relocation dataset collected for two cities in Australia and the USA (Sydney and Chicago cities) has been used, which covers residence, vehicle ownership, occupation, education, economic and demographic attributes of respondents. A comprehensive comparison between the results of two cities and a comparison between two Bayesian and frequentist approaches are made. This study confirms the impact of life-course variables, intra-household decision-making behaviours, and sociodemographic attributes on home mobility. According to the model outputs, the accelerating or decelerating impact of explanatory variables on the relocation timing has been almost the same in the two cities. The Bayesian model was confirmed to have some advantages over the frequentist model, including being straightforward to interpret, availability of making inferences on the results, and ease of handling complex models, and optimisation convergence complexities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Tools for Water Ingress Testing

The Safety Storage and Engineering Team, as part of the Production Support Services division (PSS-2), is tasked with ensuring the safety of containers used for handling and storage of nuclear materials. As part of this work, water ingress tests are conducted to evaluate the water-tightness of containers intended for in-glovebox use. In collaboration, the statistics group of the Computer and Computational Sciences Division (CCS-6) provided support in developing a statistically defensible approach for determining appropriate sample sizes for water ingress testing. Water ingress testing involves multiple measurements on multiple containers. Our approach uses a simple random effects model to analyze a pilot data set, implementing prediction limits to evaluate the efficacy of collecting additional data. Although this study capitalizes on available data, our approach can be used with estimates of the ratio of between and within variability and average values, often available from past testing or expert knowledge. An interactive Shiny tool was developed as a final user-friendly product for future testing. The Shiny interface is an open-source package providing a framework for building web applications. Raw data exploration and prediction interval-based sample size assessments can quickly be conducted by the engineering team without needing to interact with the underlying code.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

WRF-ELM v1.0: a regional climate model to study land–atmosphere interactions over heterogeneous land use regions

Abstract. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) is a state-of-the-art land surface model that simulates the intricate interactions between the terrestrial land surface and other components of the Earth system. Originating from the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5, ELM has been under active development, with added new features and functionality, including plant hydraulics, radiation–topography interaction, subsurface multiphase flow, and more explicit land use and management practices. This study integrates ELM v2.1 with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; WRF-ELM) model through a modified Lightweight Infrastructure for Land Atmosphere Coupling (LILAC) framework, enabling affordable high-resolution regional modeling by leveraging ELM's innovative features alongside WRF's diverse atmospheric parameterization options. This framework includes a top-level driver for variable communication between WRF and ELM and Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) caps for the WRF atmospheric component and ELM workflow control, encompassing initialization, execution, and finalization. Importantly, this LILAC–ESMF framework demonstrates a more modular approach compared to previous coupling efforts between WRF and land surface models. It maintains the integrity of ELM's source code structure and facilitates the transfer of future developments in ELM to WRF-ELM. To test the ability of the coupled model to capture land–atmosphere interactions over regions with a variety of land uses and land covers, we conducted high-resolution (4 km) WRF-ELM ensemble simulations over the Great Lakes region (GLR) in the summer of 2018 and systematically compared the results against observations, reanalysis data, and WRF-CTSM (WRF coupled with the Community Terrestrial Systems Model). In general, the coupled WRF-ELM model has reasonably captured the spatial distribution of surface state variables and fluxes across the GLR, particularly over the natural vegetation areas. The evaluation results provide a baseline reference for further improvements in ELM in the regional application of high-resolution weather and climate predictions. Our work serves as an example to the model development community for expanding an advanced land surface model's capability to represent fully-coupled land–atmosphere interactions at fine spatial scales. The development and release of WRF-ELM marks a significant advancement for the ELM user community, providing opportunities for fine-scale regional representation, parameter calibration in coupled mode, and examination of new schemes with atmospheric feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a compressive failure model for carbon fiber composites and associated uncertainties.

An approach to increase the value of carbon fiber for wind turbines blades, and other compressive strength driven designs, is to identify pathways to increase its cost-specific compressive strength. A finite element model has been developed to evaluate the predictiveness of current finite element methods and to lay groundwork for future studies that focus on improving the cost-specific compressive strength. Parametric studies are conducted to understand which uncertainties in the model inputs have the greatest impact on compressive strength predictions. Furthermore, a statistical approach is also presented that enables the micromechanical model, which is deterministic, to efficiently account for statistical variability in the fiber misalignment present in composite materials; especially if the results from the hexagonal and square pack models are averaged. The model was found to agree well with experimental results for a Zoltek PX-35 pultrusion. The sensitivity studies suggest that the fiber packing and the interface shear strength have the greatest impact on compressive strength prediction for the fiber reinforced polymer studied here. Based on the performance of the modeling approach presented in this work, it is deemed sufficient for future work which will seek to identify carbon fiber composites with improved cost-specific compressive strength.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗