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Results for “uncertainty analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Towards reverse mode automatic differentiation of Kokkos-based codes

Derivative computation is a key component of optimization, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and the solving of nonlinear problems. Automatic differentiation (AD) is a powerful technique for evaluating such derivatives, and in recent years, has been integrated into programming environments such as Jax, PyTorch, and TensorFlow to support derivative computations needed for training of machine learning models, facilitating wide-spread use of these technologies. The C++ language has become the de facto standard for scientific computing due to numerous factors, yet language complexity has made the wide-spread adoption of AD technologies for C++ difficult, hampering the incorporation of powerful differentiable programming approaches into C++ scientific simulations. This is exacerbated by the increasing emergence of architectures, such as GPUs, with limited memory capabilities and requiring massive thread-level concurrency. C++ AD tools must effectively use these environments to bring novel scientific simulations to next-generation DOE experimental and observational facilities. In this project, we investigated source transformation-based automatic differentiation using LLVM compiler infrastructure to automatically generate portable and efficient gradient computations of Kokkos-based code. We have demonstrated that our proposed strategy is feasible by investigating the usage of a prototype LLVM-based source transformation tool to generate gradients of simple functions made of sequences of simple Kokkos parallel regions. Speedups of up to 500x compared to Sacado were observed on NVIDIA V100 GPU.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear Material Accounting and Control (NMAC) for a Commercial Fuel Debundling Facility in the United States

The concept of fuel debundling proposes that all non-fuel components of a fuel assembly be removed prior to beginning the recycling process. It was introduced to reduce the quantity of and cost of disposing high level radioactive waste during recycling in the United States. However, nuclear material accountancy and control programs could also benefit from fuel debundling due to a reduction in self-shielding material for individual fuel rods compared to a fuel assembly. Current NRC regulations and guidance point to an independent fuel debundling facility with a material-possession-only license as the best option for implementing this concept into a used fuel recycling scheme in the United States. This allows the facility to comply only with simple NMAC requirements under Subpart B of 10 CFR Part 74 without the need to submit an NMAC plan to the NRC, exempting it from more tedious and complex NMAC requirements. However, a recycling facility may desire a Pu mass estimate from measurements of each individual fuel rod to improve accountancy into the dissolver. Many technologies and methodologies were considered for performing NMAC in an independent fuel debundling facility in the United States. Few were able to meet anticipated throughput demands of up to 3,300 rods/day and achieve measurement uncertainties suitable for input accountancy for a recycling facility. The best option was a combination of passive gamma-ray spectroscopy and neutron coincidence counting to meet all requirements for the proposed Fuel Debundling Detector (FUDD). Follow-on work will include a full uncertainty analysis to inform what assumptions can be made to meet input accountancy objectives before beginning experimental activities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

DRE: Designing for Resilience through Emulation

Threats to cyber- and cyber-physical systems have continued to increase over the past decade. Now more than ever, it is vital that cyber-physical system stakeholders have the tools to deeply understand their systems and the threats they face. High-fidelity modeling capabilities are powerful tools to support system understanding and decision-making, but they currently lack scientifically rigorous experimentation practices and infrastructures. The purpose of the project Designing for Resilience through Emulation (DRE) was to bring together past research and existing tools into a new pipeline to improve our ability to quantitatively evaluate future cyber scenarios. DRE offers new integrated capabilities for large dataset collection, noise studies, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and surrogate modeling using a cyber-physical system emulation environment. These new capabilities significantly improve our ability to establish the credibility of the answers derived from emulation environments, ultimately leading to better critical decision support.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Education for PV Modeling Professionals: Observations from the 2025 PVPMC Workshop

We surveyed professionals in the photovoltaic industry to understand interests in education and training for performance modeling of solar power systems. We found that most professionals are self-taught and rely on a variety of public sources of technical materials. Available formal education, such as courses or certification programs, either lacks detail or is focused on software user training. Responses indicate several opportunities to create public resources that would benefit professional learning for solar power system modeling: • Create a glossary of terms and common variable names. • Develop guidance on uncertainty analysis in the context of solar power systems modeling. • Assemble a catalog of available educational materials and data sources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Willow Biomass Crops Are a Carbon Negative or Low-Carbon Feedstock Depending on Prior Land Use and Transportation Distances to End Users

Few life cycle assessments (LCAs) on willow biomass production have investigated the effects of key geographically specific parameters. This study uses a spatial LCA model for willow biomass production to determine spatially explicit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy return on investment (EROI), including land use conversion from pasture and cropland or grassland. There were negative GHG emissions on 92% of the land identified as suitable for willow biomass production, indicating this system’s potential for climate change mitigation. For willow planted on cropland or pasture, life cycle GHG emissions ranged from −53.2 to −176.9 kg CO2eq Mg-1. When willow was grown on grassland the projected decrease in soil organic carbon resulted in a slightly positive GHG balance. Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) associated with land use change, transportation distance, and willow yield had the greatest impacts on GHG emissions. Results from the uncertainty analysis exhibited large variations in GHG emissions between counties arising from differences in these parameters. The average EROI across the entire region was 19.2. Willow biomass can be a carbon negative or low-carbon energy source with a high EROI in regions with similar infrastructure, transportation distances, and growing conditions such as soil characteristics, land cover types, and climate.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An extensible perturbed parameter ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model version 6

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2–CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks are analyzed. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi-dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties, are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2–CAM6 PPE is publicly available and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g., coupling to the land surface).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1976

Pulsed resonance spectroscopy applied to turbulent combustion flows

The application of pulsed resonance spectroscopy to the measurement of species concentrations in chemically reacting turbulent flows is discussed. The theory of such measurements is developed. An uncertainty analysis is performed, and the results are applied to typical combustion conditions. Experimental aspects are discussed. The method shows a significant theoretical improvement in accuracy over Raman and Reyleigh scattering techniques, and no significant barriers appear to block its development.

Daily, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Airflow and thrust calibration of an F100 engine, S/N P680059, at selected flight conditions

An airflow and thrust calibration of an F100 engine, S/N P680059, was conducted to study airframe propulsion system integration losses in turbofan-powered high-performance aircraft. The tests were conducted with and without thrust augmentation for a variety of simulated flight conditions with emphasis on the transonic regime. The resulting corrected airflow data generalized into one curve with corrected fan speed while corrected gross thrust increased as simulated flight conditions increased. Overall agreement between measured data and computed results was 1 percent for corrected airflow and -1 1/2 percent for gross thrust. The results of an uncertainty analysis are presented for both parameters at each simulated flight condition.

Biesiadny, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Altitude calibration of an F100, S/N P680063, turbofan engine

An airflow and thrust calibration of an F100 engine was conducted in coordination with a flight test program to study airframe-propulsion system integration characteristics of turbofan-powered high-performance aircraft. The tests were conducted with and without augmentation for a variety of simulated flight conditions with emphasis on the transonic regime. Test results for all conditions are presented in terms of corrected airflow and corrected gross thrust as functions of corrected fan speed for nonaugmented power and an augmented thrust ratio as a function of fuel-air ratio for augmented power. Comparisons of measured and predicted data are presented along with the results of an uncertainty analysis for both corrected airflow and gross thrust.

Biesiadny, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

From sunlight in space to 60 Hz on earth - The losses along the way

The space-to-ground links for the Solar Power Satellite System are discussed in terms of worst, best, and nominal efficiency used in the development of the preliminary design. An uncertainty analysis of this design illustrates the effect of link efficiency on SPS size and mass. It is shown that a solar power satellite can deliver power to a ground-based utility for 4 to 5 cents per kWh, depending on the efficiency of the solar cells available in 1987. The overall efficiency of converting sunlight in space to electric power delivered to utilities ranged from 3.83% for the worst combination of efficiencies to 9.5% for the best, with a nominal efficiency of 7.12%.

Denman, O. S.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Radiation protection for manned space activities

The Earth's natural radiation environment poses a hazard to manned space activities directly through biological effects and indirectly through effects on materials and electronics. The following standard practices are indicated that address: (1) environment models for all radiation species including uncertainties and temporal variations; (2) upper bound and nominal quality factors for biological radiation effects that include dose, dose rate, critical organ, and linear energy transfer variations; (3) particle transport and shielding methodology including system and man modeling and uncertainty analysis; (4) mission planning that includes active dosimetry, minimizes exposure during extravehicular activities, subjects every mission to a radiation review, and specifies operational procedures for forecasting, recognizing, and dealing with large solar flaes.

Jordan, T. M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A review of turbulent-boundary-layer heat transfer research at Stanford, 1958-1983

For the past 25 years, there has existed in the Thermosciences Laboratory of the Mechanical Engineering Department of Stanford University a research program, primarily experimental, concerned with heat transfer through turbulent boundary layers. In the early phases of the program, the topics considered were the simple zero-pressure-gradient turbulent boundary layer with constant and with varying surface temperature, and the accelerated boundary layer. Later equilibrium boundary layers were considered along with factors affecting the boundary layer, taking into account transpired flows, flows with axial pressure gradients, transpiration, acceleration, deceleration, roughness, full-coverage film cooling, surface curvature, free convection, and mixed convection. A description is provided of the apparatus and techniques used, giving attention to the smooth plate rig, the rough plate rig, the full-coverage film cooling rig, the curvature rig, the concave wall rig, the mixed convection tunnel, and aspects of data reduction and uncertainty analysis.

Moffat, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Stratospheric photochemical studies using Nimbus 7 data. I - Ozone photochemistry. II - Development of inferred trace specie distributions

The present investigation has the objective to make use of the limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS) data set in conducting stratospheric photochemical studies. A description of the data is provided. The data are utilized in a zero-dimensional model incorporating the relevant chemistry. The chemical reaction scheme considered is a subset of the scheme used in the Langley one-dimensional model discussed by Callis et al. (1983). Attention is given to a comparison of model results and data, a model uncertainty analysis, model response to modifications in rate data, the ozone-temperature relationship, and the diurnal variation in the upper stratospheric ozone.

Natarajan, M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Airflow calibration and exhaust pressure/temperature survey of an F404, S/N 215-109, turbofan engine

A General Electric F-404 turbofan engine was calibrated for thrust and airflow at the NASA Lewis Propulsion System Laboratory in support of future flight tests of the X-29 aircraft. Tests were conducted with and without augmentation, over a range of flight conditions, including the two design points of the airplane. Data obtained during the altitude tests will be used to correct two independent gross thrust calculation routines which will be installed and operated on the airplane to determine in-flight gross thrust. Corrected airflow data as a function of corrected fan speed collapsed onto a single curve. Similarly, trends were observed and defined for both augmented and dry thrust. Overall agreement between measured data and F-404 Engine Spec Deck data was within 2 percent for airflow and 6 percent for thrust. The results of an uncertainty analysis for thrust and airflow is presented. In addition to the thrust calibration, the exhaust gas boundary layer pressure and temperatures were surveyed at selected condition and engine power levels to obtain data for another NASA F-404 program. Test data for these surveys are presented.

Burns, Maureen E.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The use of atmospheric measurements to constrain model predictions of ozone change from chlorine perturbations

Atmospheric photochemistry models have been used to predict the sensitivity of the ozone layer to various perturbations. These same models also predict concentrations of chemical species in the present day atmosphere which can be compared to observations. Model results for both present day values and sensitivity to perturbation depend upon input data for reaction rates, photodissociation rates, and boundary conditions. A method of combining the results of a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis with the existing set of present atmospheric species measurements is developed. The method is used to examine the range of values for the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine perturbations that is possible within the currently accepted ranges for input data. It is found that model runs which predict ozone column losses much greater than 10 percent as a result of present fluorocarbon fluxes produce concentrations and column amounts in the present atmosphere which are inconsistent with the measurements for ClO, HCl, NO, NO2, and HNO3.

Douglass, Anne R.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Pinhole occulter experiment

Viewgraphs and charts from a briefing summarize the accomplishments, results, conclusions, and recommendations of a feasibility study using the Pinhole Occulter Facility (POF). Accomplishments for 1986 include: (1) improved IPS Gimbal Model; (2) improved Crew Motion Disturbance Model; (3) use of existing shuttle on-orbit simulation to study the effects of orbiter attitude deadband size on POF performance; (4) increased understanding of maximum performance expected from current actuator/sensor set; (5) use of TREETOPS nonlinear time domain program to obtain system dynamics describing the complex multibody flexible structures; (6) use of HONEY-X design tool to design and evaluate multivariable compensator for stability, robustness, and performance; (7) application of state-of-the-art compensator design methodology Linear Quadratic Gaussian/Loop Transfer Recovery (LQG/LTR); and (8) examination of tolerance required on knowledge of the POF boom flexible mode frequencies to insure stability, using structure uncertainty analysis.

Ring, Jeff↗
NASA NTRS1989

Preliminary analyses of space radiation protection for lunar base surface systems

Radiation shielding analyses are performed for candidate lunar base habitation modules. The study primarily addresses potential hazards due to contributions from the galactic cosmic rays. The NASA Langley Research Center's high energy nucleon and heavy ion transport codes are used to compute propagation of radiation through conventional and regolith shield materials. Computed values of linear energy transfer are converted to biological dose-equivalent using quality factors established by the International Commision of Radiological Protection. Special fluxes of heavy charged particles and corresponding dosimetric quantities are computed for a series of thicknesses in various shield media and are used as an input data base for algorithms pertaining to specific shielded geometries. Dosimetric results are presented as isodose contour maps of shielded configuration interiors. The dose predictions indicate that shielding requirements are substantial, and an abbreviated uncertainty analysis shows that better definition of the space radiation environment as well as improvement in nuclear interaction cross-section data can greatly increase the accuracy of shield requirement predictions.

Nealy, John E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Validation of the space shuttle main engine steady state performance model

The primary objective was to present methods for validating predictions of Rocketdyne's most current version of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) Power Balance Model (PBM) with respect to physical relations governing flow systems. This required the development and implementation of postprocessors to check results of PBM computations for satisfaction of conservation relations. A cursory uncertainty analysis of PBM predictions with respect to mass and energy balances was performed. In addition, an effort to identify the empirical relations and physical assumptions within PBM which impact the ability of the model to attain rigorous balance was begun.

Santi, L. Michael↗