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DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of a Light Water Reactor Coupled with a High-Temperature Electrolysis Hydrogen Production Plant

This paper presents recent updates on the Level 1 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of Light Water Reactors (LWRs) coupled with a hydrogen production plant. It provides the overview of past results on the PRA for Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs) and Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) coupled to a 1150 MW High Temperature Electrolysis Facility (HTEF), as well as the latest research results for a smaller 100 MW HTEF facility. Differences between the two HTEF designs are listed. Key differences include the amount and quality of diverted LWR steam, complexity of the Heat Extraction System (HES), and the electrical power source for the HTEF plant. A Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) was conducted for the new HTEF design, and the LWR PRA models were modified in the SAPHIRE risk assessment tool to account for the newly identified risk contributors. These include the steam loss event at the HES system, the electrical overcurrent event at the HTEF facility and at the transmission line from the LWR plant, and the hydrogen detonation event at the HTEF facility. The coupling of LWRs with a 100 MW HTEF increases the frequency of several initiating events. For the reference PWR, the largest frequency increase is for the steam line break event at 5.5%. While for the reference BWR, the largest frequency increase is for the switchyard-related Loss of Offsite Power (LOOP) event at 0.11%. The overall plant risk increases by 6.56% and 0.03% for PWR and BWR reference plants respectively. It is found that these risk metrics satisfy the safety criteria of both 10 CFR 50.59 and Regulatory Guide 1.174 licensing pathways.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Lean-Stratified Combustion System with Miller Cycle for Downsized Boosted Application - Part 2

Automotive manufacturers relentlessly explore engine technology combinations to achieve reduced fuel consumption under continued regulatory, societal and economic pressures. For example, technologies enabling advanced combustion modes, increased expansion to effective compression ratio and reduced parasitics continue to be developed and integrated within conventional and hybrid propulsion strategies across the industry. Here, a high-efficiency gasoline engine capable for use in conventional or hybrid electric vehicle platforms is highly desirable. This paper is the second of two papers describing the multi-cylinder integration of a technology package combining lean-stratified combustion with Miller cycle for downsized boosted applications. The first paper describes the design, analysis and single-cylinder testing conducted to down-select the combustion system deployed to the multi-cylinder engine. This paper defines a light-duty engine package capable of achieving a 35% fuel economy improvement at US Tier 3 emission standards over a naturally aspirated stoichiometric baseline vehicle. A multi-mode combustion system was developed enabling highly efficient lean-stratified operation at light-load and stoichiometric Miller-cycle operation at mid- to high-loads. A central direct-injection four-valve layout was designed with high-tumble ports and a bowl-in-piston capable of stable operation under highly dilute mixtures when properly matched to fuel spray characteristics, injection strategy, and a high-energy ignition system. Boost system layout and base engine architecture were selected to minimize parasitics and maximize after treatment effectiveness. A multi-cylinder engine was developed and calibrated over a steady-state map. Results fed vehicle simulations over the EPA city and highway test cycles to predict the fuel economy improvement and tailpipe emissions potential. Fuel economy improvements over the baseline vehicle were projected at 42% and 39% for active-urea and passive-ammonia SCR after treatment systems respectively. Controls complexity to achieve regulatory compliance and the cost of the lean after treatment system were identified as the primary challenges to commercial viability.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Toward a Fully Integrated Multiphysics Simulation Framework for Fusion Blanket Design

Fusion is an attractive clean-energy solution, thanks to its various advantages, such as reduced radioactivity, little high-level nuclear waste, ample fuel supplies, and increased safety. However, the harsh operating environment introduced by a complex fusion plasma system makes design and integration of fusion blankets incredibly challenging and time-consuming. This work focuses on developing a fully integrated multiphysics simulation framework based on an advanced open-source platform—the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)—to alleviate the difficulties in fusion blanket design and integration. MOOSE is a massively parallel finite element/volume multiphysics simulation platform that has been widely adopted within the nuclear fission community. Even though fission and fusion are fundamentally different, they involve similar multiphysics phenomena. A fully integrated open-source multiphysics simulation framework tailored for the fusion blanket design will be implemented by leveraging the well-established multiphysics capabilities in MOOSE. Once successfully developed, this fully integrated framework will rapidly evaluate a blanket design concept and offer insights for subsequent iterations. As the first step, we will mainly aim to integrate neutronics analysis, system thermal hydraulics simulation, and full 3-D heat transfer calculations. The efficacy of the integrated framework will be verified using an innovative solid ceramic blanket design. While the project’s final goal is to enable a fully integrated multiphysics simulation platform for various fusion blanket concepts, here this work, as a preliminary step, will mainly focus on a solid ceramic breeder helium-cooled blanket.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Code Coverage Status of the ARC code GAMSRC

The Argonne Reactor Code (ARC) software system supports users in their fast reactor design goals by providing neutronic, thermal-hydraulic, and structural analysis capabilities. GAMSOR serves as procedure to obtain the neutron and gamma power distribution information in the ARC code system. GAMSOR is a specially modified version of DIF3D (dif3d.x becomes dif3d_gamsor.x). After some work, it was determined that carrying out software on GAMSOR was impractical and would not fit well with commercial grade dedication. GAMSRC was written in the last decade to replace GAMSOR such that the user can rely soley upon the verified DIF3D (dif3d.x) code and GAMSRC to obtain the neutron and gamma power distribution information. GAMSRC is also fully verified and ready for commercial grade dedication. In the coming years, GAMSOR will be deprecated and GAMSRC will fully take over in the ARC code system. This document identifies the set of test problems used to assess the code coverage for GAMSRC. The goal is to document what parts of the existing GAMSRC code are touched by the set of test problems and which are not. The code coverage analysis of GAMSRC was performed with the Code Coverage Tool of the Intel Fortran compiler which requires modifications to the compilation of GAMSRC. The code coverage tables are given for each submodule of GAMSRC. Because GAMSRC links to modules in DIF3D, some details on coverage changes to the DIF3D lined files is provided. As will be seen, most of the uncovered parts/files can be ignored because they are either for error message and debugging output or obviously not needed by GAMSRC today.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Economically Viable Intermediate to Long Duration Hydrogen Energy Storage Solutions for Fossil Fueled Assets

This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management of U.S. Department of Energy under Funding Opportunity Announcement Number DE-FOA-0002332 “Energy Storage for Fossil Power Generation”. The work aimed to explore and advance an innovative hydrogen energy storage system – the synergistically integrated hydrogen energy storage system (SIHES) – that has the following characteristics: • Compatible with existing or new coal and gas fuel electricity generation units, • best suited for intermediate to long duration energy storage, from 12 hours to weeks even months, and • capable of storing energy at the utility scale – hundreds of MWh to GWh energy storage with power output level in tens to hundreds of MW. Preliminary front-end engineering design (Pre-FEED) studies was carried out to develop and refine a site-specific SIHES as peaking power generation units (so named as HyPeaker) as the first market entry point, to demonstrate both the technical feasibility and the economic viability to integrate the HyPeaker “within the fence” of a fossil power plant. This specific site was TVA’s Johnsonville Combustion Turbine Plant. The HyPeaker was designed and engineered to integrate with a 60MW aeroderivative gas turbine unit already available at TVA’s Johnsonville site. This site-specific HyPeaker consists of an alkaline electrolyzer to produce hydrogen from CO 2 free electricity sources, an innovative low-cost high-pressure hydrogen storage system (Big-Ton) and the aero gas turbine to generate electricity using blend of hydrogen and natural gas. A holistic system level technoeconomic analysis tool specific to HyPeaker was developed to optimize the engineering design of the Johnsonville site-specific HyPeaker for cost and performance. The optimal design and specification of the Johnsonville site-specific HyPeaker are the following: • Alkaline electrolyzer: 3MW • Big-Ton storage vessel: 11,000kg H 2 at 3000psi. • 4-stage diaphragm hydrogen compressor: 55kg-H 2 /hr from 150psi to 3000psi. The HyPeaker is designed to provide sufficient hydrogen for 90% continuous operation of the HyPeaker. All major components have design life of 30 years. The capex of HyPeaker is estimated at $\$$7.1M. This included $\$$1.5M for the electrolyzer, $\$$5.6M for the storage vessel and compressor. The cost of aero gas turbine was included as it is already available at the site. Key findings are: • HyPeaker can be designed, manufactured, installed and integrated with the fossil power plants, with sub-systems and components commercially available on the market today, even when it is scaled up to an order of magnitude larger than the one at the Johnsonville site. HyPeaker is a technologically viable solution to cover a wide range of energy storage duration needs, from daily peaking operation to seasonal shifting for fossil fueled assets. • The cost advantage of SCCV based Big-Ton H 2 storage vessel made it possible to “oversize” the H 2 storage subsystem to achieve overall system level cost optimization. The benefits are two-fold. First, it allows to significantly reduce the capacity and cost of electrolyzer by spreading H 2 production over a much longer period of time when the fuel cost for electricity production is low. Second, it allows to balance the hydrogen production and usage shift over weeks to months to meet the peak demands. As such, the capital cost of HyPeaker system using the Big-Ton was less than half of the cost of a system with today’s steel tube based H 2 storage system. The HyPeaker has even better cost advantage Li-ion battery based energy storage system. The estimated capital cost of Li-Ion battery system would be at $\$$38M, under the same projected 20-year electricity generation profile of the Johnsonville site. This is over 5 times more expensive than the HyPeaker system. • Since industry scale energy storage systems do not have 100% energy conversion and storage efficiency, energy storage systems using fossil fuel generated electricity would increase the CO 2 emission. This is particularly the case for HyPeaker due to its low round trip efficiency. Therefore, a more sensible solution would be to the excessive or curtailed electricity from CO 2 emission free sources such as solar farms, wind farms or nuclear power plants, to produce hydrogen, and integrate them with the HyPeaker. Electricity from TVA’s nuclear power plants was used for the Johnsonville HyPeaker. • The economic viability of HyPeaker is expected to be further improved when global supply chains are taken into consideration. For the same Johnsonville site specific HyPeaker, the capex would be reduced to ~$\$$3.6M from ~$\$$7.1M, and the added LCOE is reduced to ~$\$$85/MWh. With the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the cost of domestically produced HyPeaker sub-systems would be at the level of today’s global suppliers. Since the peaking units generally operate at peak usage period, thereby demanding higher price, the projected $\$$85/MWh LCOE would be within the realm of financial viability for utility operators.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Second Target Station Target Streaming for the Preliminary Design of the Target Assembly

This report documents the analysis of dose rate fields from a combination of two sources stemming from the target system of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) Second Target Station (STS). This analysis supports the target drive components’ lifetime estimates and conventional facilities’ preliminary design. The two sources detailed in this report are the radiation generated by the proton beam incident on the target and the activated cooling water in the pipes at the top of the target assembly. The analysis considers the STS target system in operational configuration, with all shielding in place. The dose rate fields are calculated in the target drive room and through the target drive room ceiling. This report calculates the thickness necessary for the target drive room’s high-density concrete ceiling to meet the 0.25 mrem/hr dose limit requirement in the high bay directly above the target drive room. In addition to sizing the target drive room ceiling, this report includes details of the dose field surrounding the target drive assembly to estimate the deposited dose in the target drive assembly components resulting from both streaming and decay of activated water. Prompt neutrons and gammas generated by the proton beam incident on the target primarily stream along the gaps between the target assembly and core vessel shielding. Because the models and analysis detailed in this report are based on the STS preliminary design, future analysis is needed to support the STS final design.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

WEC as a multiport

SAND2025-00555O WEC as a multiport is a software tool that simplifies the modeling and design of ocean wave energy converters (WECs) using a multi-port network framework in the frequency domain. Users can simulate the dynamic interactions between WECs and ocean waves, optimizing energy extraction and system performance. This tool supports the analysis of complex wave energy systems, aiding in the development of efficient and effective WEC designs. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Coe, Ryan↗

DOE OSTI2022

HYSPLIT/MACCS Atmospheric Dispersion Model Technical Documentation and Benchmark Analysis

The nuclear accident consequence analysis code MACCS has traditionally modeled dispersion during downwind transport using a Gaussian plume segment model. MACCS is designed to estimate consequence measures such as air concentrations and ground depositions, radiological doses, and health and economic impacts on a statistical basis over the course of a year to produce annualaveraged output measures. The objective of this work is to supplement the Gaussian atmospheric transport and diffusion (ATD) model currently in MACCS with a new option using the HYSPLIT model. HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling has been implemented, with HYSPLIT as an alternative ATD option. The subsequent calculations in MACCS use the HYSPLIT-generated air concentration, and ground deposition values to calculate the same range of output quantities (dose, health effects, risks, etc.) that can be generated when using the MACCS Gaussian ATD model. Based on the results from the verification test cases, the implementation of the HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling is confirmed. This report contains technical details of the HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling and presents a benchmark analysis using the HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling system. The benchmark analysis, which involves running specific scenarios and sensitivity studies designed to examine how the results generated by the traditional MACCS Gaussian plume segment model compare to the new, higher fidelity HYSPLIT/MACCS modeling option, demonstrates the modeling results that can be obtained by using this new option. The comparisons provided herein can also help decision-makers evaluate the potential benefit of using results based on higher fidelity modeling with the additional computational burden needed to perform the calculations. Three sensitivity studies to investigate the potential impact of alternative modeling options, regarding 1) input meteorological data set, 2) method to estimate stability class, and 3) plume dispersion model for larger distances, on consequence results were also performed. The results of these analyses are provided and discussed in this report.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Transportation analysis and related design optimization of the Fermilab high-beta 650 MHz cryomodule

The Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II) at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL) will create a new and vastly improved accelerator, which will be the source of high-energy particles for the experiments taking place at FNAL. The new linear accelerator (LINAC) contains several types of cryomodules, which are individual particle accelerators. The last cryomodule in the LINAC will be the High-Beta 650 (HB650), which will operate at 650 MHz. Each module is approximately 15 meters in length and 1.5 meters wide, weighs 13 tonnes, and shares many design features with three of the other cryomodules. The HB650 consists of two primary sections, the outer vacuum vessel and the components that reside within it, which will be cooled to cryogenic temperatures – the cold mass. Once assembly is complete at FNAL, it will be transported to one of three places: another location at FNAL, another national laboratory within the continental United States, or to a scientific partner in Europe. Any excitation the module experiences, such as going over rough roads when on a semitrailer, can create high stresses in components and cause failure if severe enough. Additionally, any delicate components with low resonant frequencies that match the excitation spectrum could achieve resonance, potentially causing a fatigue failure by repeated flexing. To ensure the successful transportation of the HB650, a transport analysis utilizing ANSYS simulation software has been performed on major subassemblies, as well as analysis of the subassemblies as a combined system. The optimization of components, design of support structures, and overall increasing of the lowest resonant frequencies have resulted in a cryomodule that will be better equipped to handle transportation and any large impact loads that come with it.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ground Source Heat Pump Screening Tool and Related Resources

This archive contains both a link to Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP) Screening Tool and related resources documenting its development, technical features, and applications. The web-based screening tool is a techno-economic analysis resource designed to evaluate the feasibility, costs, and benefits of implementing GSHP systems in buildings across various U.S. climate zones. It is intended for use by building owners, HVAC system designers, and installers to support decision-making in residential and commercial applications, incorporating advanced modeling capabilities such as ground heat exchanger design. The included resources detail the tool's creation and use, covering topics such as innovative ground heat exchanger design methodologies, the development of an open library of g-functions for borehole configurations, and studies on GSHP performance and economic viability in retrofitting single-family homes.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Controlled Pyrolysis: A Robust Scalable Composite Recycling Technology

The reinforced composites industry is facing significant challenges in handling the scrap composite material from automobile manufacturing, the wind turbine industry, and others. The fibers in the material, whether they be carbon, glass, or other materials have commercial value if they can be recovered successfully. Successfully means the fibers are clean with no sizing or other binders and have adequate strength and physical properties that would allow them to be economically reprocessed into valuable product. The composites recycling project was an industry-collaborative effort to develop a composite recycling technology using controlled pyrolysis. Through the recycling of scrap and end-of-life (EOL) cured composite materials, this pilot study was intended to create a business case by realizing a cost-effective means for recycling EOL and production scrap composite materials, ultimately reducing the volume of composite materials destined for landfill. The project was led by the Institute for Advanced Composites Manufacturing Innovation (IACMI), the American Composites Manufacturers Association (ACMA), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Continental Structural Plastics (CSP) a Teijin Group Company, CHZ Technologies, and A. Schulman with support from Owens Corning, John Deere, General Electric (GE), Ashland LLC, and Plastics Europe (CEFIC). The team studied and tested CHZ Technologies’ controlled pyrolysis system, known as the Thermolyzer TM , which operates on a scalable basis to convert organic polymer materials into a clean synthesis gas and char containing the recoverable carbon and glass fiber reinforcement. The recoverable energy contained in the input polymers creates the synthesis gas that can be used to provide heat to the Thermolyzer TM primary reactor in a sustainable manner. That is, once the Thermolyzer TM is started with a small amount of external natural gas, the synthesis gas that is created from the polymers will continue to operate the burners so long as feedstock is supplied. The reinforcing fiber materials remaining in the solid phase char were separated and cleaned for re-use in other polymer systems based on the retained properties of the fibers. The study created reports (attached in the appendix) on the Mass and Energy Balances, syngas analytics, VOC assessment, yield analysis and other analytics necessary for a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) to quantify the economic impact of the recovery and sustainable re-use of the carbon and glass fibers. The process consisted of 4 steps: Selection of 4 samples of cured composite waste materials from project partners interested in materials recycling and recovering the reinforcing fibers for best case re-use. The materials included glass fiber (GF) polyester/vinyl ester automotive SMC from CSP, GF epoxy balsa/PVC foam wind blades from GE, carbon fiber (CF) epoxy wind blade laminated spar caps from GE, and GF/CF epoxy hybrid assembly from John Deere. Processing the waste composite samples into 1-2” shreds. Packaging the shredded composites into bulk sacks on international shipping pallets for shipment to KUG in Forst (Lausitz), Germany. Pyrolysis of the shredded composites under controlled conditions designed for each polymer system. Collecting samples of the gas and char for analysis. Shipping the char containing the CF/GF back to the US for the next steps of testing the fibers and developing protocols for sustainable re-use of the fibers in composite applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Critical problems of energy frontier Muon Colliders: optics, magnets and radiation

This White Paper brings together our previous studies on a Muon Collider (MC) and presents a design concept of the 6 TeV MC optics, the superconducting (SC) magnets, and a preliminary analysis of the protection system to reduce magnet radiation loads as well as particle backgrounds in the detector. The SC magnets and detector protection considerations impose strict limitations on the lattice choice, hence the design of the collider optics, magnets and Machine Detector Interface (MDI) are closely intertwined. As a first approximation we use the Interaction Region (IR) design with beta-star=3 mm, whereas for the arcs we re-scale the arc cell design of the 3 TeV MC. Traditional cos-theta coil geometry and Nb3Sn superconductor were used to provide field maps for the analysis and optimization of the arc lattice and IR design, as well as for studies of beam dynamics and magnet protection against radiation. The stress management in the coil will be needed to avoid large degradation or even damage of the brittle SC coils. In the assumed IR designs, the dipoles close to the Interaction Point (IP) and tungsten masks in each IR (to protect magnets) help reducing background particle fluxes in the detector by a substantial factor. The tungsten nozzles in the 6 to 600 cm region from the IP, assisted by the detector solenoid field, trap most of the decay electrons created close to the IP as well as most of the incoherent electron-positron pairs generated in the IP. With sophisticated tungsten, iron, concrete and borated polyethylene shielding in the MDI region, the total reduction of background loads by more than three orders of magnitude can be achieved.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Novel, Low-Cost, Portable Device for Counterfeit and Noncompliant Refrigerant Detection

The increasing prevalence of counterfeit refrigerants presents significant risks to Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration (HVACR) systems, including compromised equipment performance, safety hazards, and environmental non-compliance. This report details the development of a novel, cost-effective, and portable detection device designed to accurately identify counterfeit refrigerants. The device utilizes a controlled gas sampling and analysis system within a sealed chamber, ensuring precise measurements while maintaining safety through a purging mechanism. The system features a high-sensitivity sensor integrated with an onboard control module that analyzes gas composition in real-time, providing users with clear visual indicators for refrigerant authenticity.Laboratory validation demonstrated the device’s high accuracy (exceeding 95%) in detecting unauthorized refrigerant blends. Key advantages include affordability, ease of use, rapid response time, and compatibility with a wide range of refrigerants. This solution supports compliance with regulatory frameworks such as the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act, enhances safety in HVACR operations, and mitigates the risks associated with counterfeit refrigerants. Future developments will focus on expanding refrigerant detection capabilities, integrating machine learning for enhanced accuracy, implementing cost-reduction strategies to improve accessibility and market adoption, and optimizing system packaging for enhanced field portability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Novel, Low-Cost, Portable Device for Counterfeit and Noncompliant Refrigerant Detection

The increasing prevalence of counterfeit refrigerants presents significant risks to Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration (HVACR) systems, including compromised equipment performance, safety hazards, and environmental non-compliance. This report details the development of a novel, cost-effective, and portable detection device designed to accurately identify counterfeit refrigerants. The device utilizes a controlled gas sampling and analysis system within a sealed chamber, ensuring precise measurements while maintaining safety through a purging mechanism. The system features a high-sensitivity sensor integrated with an onboard control module that analyzes gas composition in real-time, providing users with clear visual indicators for refrigerant authenticity. Laboratory validation demonstrated the device’s high accuracy (exceeding 95%) in detecting unauthorized refrigerant blends. Key advantages include affordability, ease of use, rapid response time, and compatibility with a wide range of refrigerants. This solution supports compliance with regulatory frameworks such as the AIM Act, enhances safety in HVACR operations, and mitigates the risks associated with counterfeit refrigerants. Future developments will focus on expanding refrigerant detection capabilities, integrating machine learning for enhanced accuracy, implementing cost-reduction strategies to improve accessibility and market adoption, and optimizing system packaging for enhanced field portability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Model-Based Energy and Cost Analysis of Direct Air Capture Using ePTFE-Based Laminate-Structured Gas–Solid Contactors

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies will play a significant role in limiting global warming if implemented on a large scale. Direct air capture (DAC) is a scalable approach for removing atmospheric carbon, yet the true scope of its scalability remains unclear due to the early stage of technology development and high first plant costs. This study provides groundwork for understanding the technoeconomic trade-offs in developing DAC systems using laminate-structured gas–solid contactors, encompassing the analysis of both contactor and process design spaces. The robust mass transfer and process models outlined in this study provide tools for evaluating DAC processes and designing DAC plants based on cost and energy analysis. First, the key contactor geometrical parameters are identified to understand the CO 2 productivity–energy demand trade-offs, where geometries yielding higher mass transfer rates can achieve higher CO 2 productivities at the expense of energy consumption by fans and steam use. Next, a detailed process parametric study is conducted for DAC systems coupled with steam-assisted temperature-vacuum swing adsorption (S-TVSA) to visualize the trade-offs in the multidimensional design space. The main cost driver dramatically changes over different process conditions, but the operating cost prevailed on the Pareto front, with potential to operate as low as 150 $/tonne-CO 2 (within the cost range of 148–504 $/tonne-CO 2 in this study where the DAC system is coupled with industrial facilities for steam production).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Angle Droop Design for Grid-Forming Inverters Considering Impacts of Virtual Impedance Control

Grid-forming inverters (GFMs) based on active power-frequency droop control and reactive power-voltage droop control have been developed in recent years, which can generate voltage and frequency references for islanded power systems or microgrids to improve system-wide synchronization and power-sharing capability. It is known that the control delays in GFMs may cause system harmonic instability. To eliminate this issue, virtual impedance techniques are normally adopted. This paper gives a comprehensive examination of the impacts of virtual impedance control block Z v in GFMs on system stability. It is revealed that although Z v is effective in eliminating system harmonic stability, it may ruin system synchronization stability as a side effect. To compensate for the negative impacts caused by Z v , an active power-angle control block is added into the conventional droop control. Design criteria are also proposed accordingly to ensure system stability over the entire frequency range. Simulations and experimental testing are conducted to validate the analysis and the proposed design guidelines. It can be concluded that the Z v control-caused grid-synchronization instability issues can be eliminated with an appropriate active power-angle droop design.

Kong, Le↗

DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Reliability Analysis using Generalized Multifidelity Modeling and Explainable Active Learning

To assess the reliability of critical technologies like nuclear plants and infrastructure systems and improve the robustness of design, engineers have to quantify the uncertainties surrounding the system behavior accurately. However, the complexity of the problem can make standard reliability analysis algorithms prohibitively expensive, primarily due to the high computational cost of estimating the system response at each iteration. This cost can be greatly reduced by using multi-fidelity modeling and machine learning to build a surrogate model to replace the expensive response function. We propose a general and robust method for building surrogates from multiple Low Fidelity (LF) models coupled with machine learning to retain accuracy. Our framework first constructs “Corrected Low Fidelity models” (CLFs) by coupling a High Fidelity (HF) model inferred Gaussian Process correction term with each of the LF models. It then uses the correction terms to assign model probabilities to each of these CLFs in an explainable way before using them to assemble the final surrogate. No assumptions are made about the type of the LF models or their correlation with the HF model. The proposed surrogate modeling framework is used within the subset simulation algorithm (a variance-reduced MCMC-based reliability analysis algorithm) for enhanced efficiency. Additionally, an active learning step is added to the algorithm to adaptively decide when the surrogate is not sufficiently accurate, at which point the HF model is called and used to refine the surrogate. Through a frame buckling example, our method is shown to be highly efficient at reducing the expensive HF model calls while accurately estimating the failure probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗