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At least 451 records · Page 25

Thermal Systems Modeling for Integration of Industrial Processes with Advanced Nuclear

Applying combined heat and power concepts to advanced nuclear reactors can enable increased nuclear utilization in the future clean economy, as well as provide safe and reliable clean energy to industrial systems. Analyses have been performed to evaluate the integration of nuclear energy with industrial processes for both clean electricity production and providing process heat for direct use to reduce emissions in the production of chemical commodities. The key research question that needs to be answered is: "What are the prospective approaches for integrating nuclear-generated heat energy into non-electric applications that can facilitate combined heat and power operations by advanced nuclear reactor systems?" This presentation will highlight several case studies showing conceptual designs for thermal delivery systems to integrate small modular reactor (SMR) process steam and electricity with industrial processes including oil refining, hydrogen production, and methanol production.

hydrogen↗

A Reinforcement Learning Approach to Augment Conventional PID Control in Nuclear Power Plant Transient Operation

The ability of nuclear reactors to operate their power conversion cycles more flexibly will enhance their value to energy grids with variable pricing. Current nuclear control systems are typically classical controllers that are often based on proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control. This paper presents a method of augmenting the existing PID control for difficult transient operations in nuclear power plants using a reinforcement learning–derived feedforward signal applied in real time. The agents, which are trained on a test thermal load-following problem, are designed to improve steam generator outlet temperature control for a range of fast load-following scenarios covering ramp rates from 9%/min to 15%/min. Several reinforcement learning algorithms were initially investigated for the training of the feedforward agents with deep Q-learning (DQN) and proximal policy optimization (PPO) networks, which were found to be the most promising. The DQN controllers utilize discrete actions, giving them a better disturbance rejection at steady state but inconsistent response to initial temperature deviations. In contrast, PPO-trained agents, which take continuous actions except for a dead zone around zero, were shown to have the best combination of high disturbance rejection at steady state and good tracking of the desired temperature value. The ability of the PPO agent was also examined, with the average time of decision making found to be on the order of 1 ms. The fault properties of the controller under the loss of the reinforcement learning agent feedforward signal were also examined. The controller showed strong performance in situations of “no-signal” faults. but was less good at handling “stuck-at” faults, where the feedforward signal remains at a set value. In both cases, however, the PID was able to successfully maintain stability, eventually returning the system to a steady state. It is hoped that this work will allow for the proposed control architecture to be examined for more difficult control problems such that it may eventually be used to adapt existing nuclear plants for more aggressive load-following on grids of the future.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Test and Validate Distributed Coaxial Cable Sensors for in situ Condition Monitoring of Coal-Fired Boiler Tubes

This project aims to test, validate, and advance the technology readiness level (from TRL5 to TRL7) of a novel low-cost distributed stainless-steel/ceramic coaxial cable sensing (SSC-CCS) technology for in situ monitoring of the boiler tube temperature in existing coal-fired power plants. The novel SSC-CCS sensing technology and associated condition-based monitoring (CBM) software to be demonstrated in this project will lead to an improved understanding of the boiler tube failure mechanisms and a prognostic system to improve the overall performance, reliability, and flexibility of the nation’s coal-fired power plant fleet. A boiler tube monitoring system with distributed coaxial cable temperature sensors and a sensor acquisition system was constructed. The high-temperature coaxial cable sensor with a length of 1.3m was made by using a quartz tube (1mm inner diameter (ID) and 6mm outer diameter (OD)) to concentrically separate a 304 stainless-steel (SS) rod (1mm OD) and SS tube (7.94mm OD and 6.16mm ID). The sensor acquisition system includes a vector network analyzer (VNA), a radio frequency (RF) power amplifier, multiple switches and a USB hub. The distributed stainless-steel quartz coaxial cable sensor (SSQ-CCS) had a linear response to temperature with a resolution uncertainty of σ = 0.77℃. To withstand the harsh conditions of 3,300 steam pressures and 800℃ high temperatures, the sensor was shielded by a protective tube made of the same material as the boiler tube. The protection tube had an OD of 1.5 inches and a thickness of 0.25 inches. In the laboratory tests, the sensor showed good sensitivity and fast response. The drift was bounded between +0.33% and -0.67% during a test at 600℃ for 350 hours, indicating good stability of the sensor. A field test was conducted where four sensors were welded on four superheat tubes (SH-Ts) at a coal-fired power station over 400 days. Conventional thermocouples were welded to the superheater tubes alongside the coaxial cable sensors for the purpose of comparison. Two sensors were capable of distributed sensing, with three multiplexed sensing sections. The other two sensors were single section. During the 400-day test period, the power plant experienced startups and shutdowns. At the steady state operations, the temperature of the boiler tube is about 600℃ (1112°F). The sensors recorded the entire coal-firing processes (start-up, steady state, and shut-down) and the glitch event. A GSM modem and a Watchdog were added to the system to ensure reliable data recording. The GSM modem sent daily messages to plant managers and Clemson team to inform the status of the sensor system. If the system was not normally working, the Watchdog would reboot the system automatically. The new coaxial cable based distributed sensing technology has been proven to be successful in both laboratory and field tests. A comprehensive four-stage multi-physics computational framework has been developed to assist the design, optimization, installation, and operation of SSQ-CCS. With the consideration of various operation conditions, we predict the distributions of flue gas temperatures within coal-fired boilers, the temperature correlation between the boiler tube and SSQ-CCS, and the safety of SSQ-CCS. A conditional-based monitoring system is implemented as well. The computational framework developed in this work can guide the future operation of coal-fired plants and other power plants for the safety prediction of boiler operations.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Advanced Signal Processing for High Temperatures Health Monitoring of Condensed Water Height in Steam Pipes

An advanced signal processing methodology is being developed to monitor the height of condensed water thru the wall of a steel pipe while operating at temperatures as high as 250deg. Using existing techniques, previous study indicated that, when the water height is low or there is disturbance in the environment, the predicted water height may not be accurate. In recent years, the use of the autocorrelation and envelope techniques in the signal processing has been demonstrated to be a very useful tool for practical applications. In this paper, various signal processing techniques including the auto correlation, Hilbert transform, and the Shannon Energy Envelope methods were studied and implemented to determine the water height in the steam pipe. The results have shown that the developed method provides a good capability for monitoring the height in the regular conditions. An alternative solution for shallow water or no water conditions based on a developed hybrid method based on Hilbert transform (HT) with a high pass filter and using the optimized windowing technique is suggested. Further development of the reported methods would provide a powerful tool for the identification of the disturbances of water height inside the pipe.

health monitoring↗

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Technical and Economic Considerations for Uprate of Existing Nuclear Reactors with Cogeneration

The United States nuclear reactor fleet consists of 63 pressurized water reactors and 31 boiling water reactors and is a pivotal component in the nation's energy infrastructure, supplying approximately 97 GW e of clean power. With the country's commitment to decarbonization by 2050, these reactors are not only instrumental in decarbonizing the electricity grid but also play a critical role in decarbonizing industrial processes, producing clean fuels, and scaling up CO 2 removal. This report delves into the potential for power uprates in the existing fleet to contribute to these decarbonization efforts, focusing on the expansion of capacity for applications such as hydrogen production and carbon capture and sequestration. Building on previous research, the report explores regional market demands for hydrogen, oxygen, and carbon dioxide, financial implications of oxygen and CO 2 sales from high-temperature steam electrolysis systems, and the potential for direct air capture systems paired with uprated nuclear plants.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SSR COST – COmposite Structural Technologies for advanced reactor deployment (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Moltex is designing a Generation 4 or Advanced nuclear reactor, the molten salt fast spectrum SSR-W. The design intent is to reduce the cost and complexity of the nuclear systems by relying on inherent safety characteristics, instead of engineered systems. One such characteristic as a natural tendency for power to decrease as temperature increases. Another characteristic that improves natural safety is the fact that the working fluids (molten salts) are at atmospheric pressure at operating temperatures. This significantly reduces the need for pressure boundary components and systems. Moltex is highly motivated to develop simple and economic reactors to reduce the carbon intensity and improve energy security of global electricity production. The COST project investigated the opportunities for reducing construction cost of advanced reactors with the adoption of Rigid Elastic Composite Civil works (RECC). The construction design and methods used in currently operational light water power plants would generally be suboptimal for the SSR-W since there is no requirement for civil structures to withstand high pressure accidents such as hydrogen combustion or steam explosion. In parallel to downselecting the most promising RECC-type technology, accident scenarios representing the largest credible challenge to the SSR-W civil and construction design were modelled. The capability of an SSR-W reactor constructed with and without the selected construction technology was evaluated and the consequential licensing challenges identified. A construction schedule and cost estimate of the SSR-W with and without the selected RECC construction technology was developed. Once the above data was collected, then Moltex was able to review the safety performance, license-ability and cost/schedule benefit of applying the preferred construction technology. The CAPEX/NPV benefit was quantified, and the licensing risks and opportunities were documented. Finally, the CAPEX/NPV benefit of the advanced construction technology was modest due to the suitability of traditional stick-built construction for the SSR-W design. However, previously unidentified benefits of the advanced construction technology were revealed during the studies that could credibly de-risk certain aspects of the design to be licensed. Since licensing (duration and delays) are very significant in new build project costs, the cost benefits may be significant. Further studies on the risk reduction of the construction technology are foreseen.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Recapitalizing Aging Infrastructure for a Net-Zero Future

The Chemistry and Metallurgy Research Facility (CMR) was built in 1952. The original structure consisted of five laboratory wings and office and administration wings. Wing 9 was added in 1959 to house unique equipment and capabilities for the national security mission of the United States. At the time, a centralized heat and power (CHP) plant was the best and most efficient option for serving large campuses, as was the use of fossil fuels, so CMR was put on LANL’s utility steam loop. Given the magnitude of heating energy requirements for the facility, it is a substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) contributor at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and has been for over 70 years.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Manual of phosphoric acid fuel cell power plant optimization model and computer program

An optimized cost and performance model for a phosphoric acid fuel cell power plant system was derived and developed into a modular FORTRAN computer code. Cost, energy, mass, and electrochemical analyses were combined to develop a mathematical model for optimizing the steam to methane ratio in the reformer, hydrogen utilization in the PAFC plates per stack. The nonlinear programming code, COMPUTE, was used to solve this model, in which the method of mixed penalty function combined with Hooke and Jeeves pattern search was chosen to evaluate this specific optimization problem.

Lu, C. Y.↗

Sorbent Based Post-Combustion CO 2 Slipstream Testing

TDA Research, Inc. has developed a low-cost sorbent (alkalized alumina) based technology for post-combustion CO 2 capture. The sorbent runs in an isothermal process for adsorption and regeneration. Neither temperature swing nor pressure swing is needed. TDA designed a system which operated 10 fixed beds to simulate a moving bed process. The flow pattern was optimized to minimize the steam usage for regeneration. An excellent sorbent (Batch 1) was also developed with collaboration with our partner. The sorbent degraded after long term operation. We developed a reprocessing procedure, which can be conducted in situ, to restore the sorbent capture capacity as the fresh sorbent after running for about 1250 hours. The reprocessing extended the sorbent longevity significantly. TDA designed a pilot unit (40’ x 32’ x 11.5’), processing flue gas equivalent to 0.5 MW of power generation. It had 10 beds and each bed could hold 1.75 m 3 of sorbent. We worked with Springs Fabrication, Inc. to complete the construction of the pilot unit. It was then shipped and installed at NCCC. The pilot unit was kept running in 24-hour mode when the flue gas and steam were available. It could run automatically without operator on site. Parametric and long-term (2 months) tests were carried out successfully. The results showed that TDA’s process can achieve 90% capture and 95% CO 2 purity for both coal and NG flue gases. For coal flue gas, the system reached performance target when processing up to 0.62 MW flue gas, 24% higher than the design capacity. Thus, capital cost could be saved on the reactors and sorbent. The strip air flow was designed to be 0.25 of that of the flue gas. The test data showed the strip/flue ratio can be reduced to as little as 0.18, which saves the power consumption for the strip air blower. The pressure drop was found to be lower than what the empirical equation calculated. The sorbent still had 91.7% of original capacity after 3-month test. With the data from the pilot test, we updated the TEA. For a 550-MW e supercritical coal fired power plant with CO 2 capture, the capture cost for TDA’s process is $34.9/tonne CO 2 captured, which meets DOE’s goal of $40/tonne and is 17.1% less than the DOE baseline Case 12. Therefore, TDA’s process has a good potential for commercialization.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Cost and Performance Estimates for State-of-the-Art and Advanced 1×1 H-Class Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants

As an extension of NETL's Fossil Energy Baseline for Electricity Generating Units Volume 1: Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity (FEB Rev 4a, this study develops cost and performance estimates for analogous NGCC cases using a state-of-the-art 2023 vintage H-Class CT in a 1×1 configuration, where a single combustion turbine and heat recovery steam generator are coupled to a single steam turbine on a common shaft. These 1×1 H-Class cases are used to develop cost and performance estimates of X-Class 1×1 NGCC cases with advanced performance characteristics, analogous to NETL’s cost and performance projections report.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DBD plasma-assisted ethanol steam reforming for green H 2 production: Process optimization through response surface methodology (RSM)

Herein this work investigates ethanol steam reforming (ESR) to produce hydrogen (H 2 ) in a dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) plasma reactor. A five-level, three-factor experiment design was performed using a response surface methodology (RSM) to evaluate the combined effects of the three process parameters, including discharge power, total flow rate, and ethanol-to-water (EtOH/H 2 O) molar ratio on the plasma-assisted ESR reaction. Quadratic regression models were employed in RSM to fit the experimental results and present the correlation between process parameters and targeted responses (EtOH conversion, H 2 yield, H 2 selectivity, and specific energy requirement (SER) for H 2 production). The results suggested that the EtOH/H 2 O molar ratio is considered to have the most significant effect on the EtOH conversion and H 2 , H 2 selectivity, while the total flow rate is the most significant parameter determining SER for H 2 production. Process optimization demonstrated the optimal process conditions, including a discharge power of 55.9 W, a total flow rate of 26.7 ml/min, and an EtOH/H 2 O molar ratio equal to 0.34. A validation test was performed and confirmed the feasibility of the optimization process.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Effect of thermal barrier coatings on the performance of steam and water-cooled gas turbine/steam turbine combined cycle system

An analytical study was made of the performance of air, steam, and water-cooled gas-turbine/steam turbine combined-cycle systems with and without thermal-barrier coatings. For steam cooling, thermal barrier coatings permit an increase in the turbine inlet temperature from 1205 C (2200 F), resulting in an efficiency improvement of 1.9 percentage points. The maximum specific power improvement with thermal barriers is 32.4 percent, when the turbine inlet temperature is increased from 1425 C (2600 F) to 1675 C (3050 F) and the airfoil temperature is kept the same. For water cooling, the maximum efficiency improvement is 2.2 percentage points at a turbine inlet temperature of 1683 C (3062 F) and the maximum specific power improvement is 36.6 percent by increasing the turbine inlet temperature from 1425 C (2600 F) to 1730 C (3150 F) and keeping the airfoil temperatures the same. These improvements are greater than that obtained with combined cycles using air cooling at a turbine inlet temperature of 1205 C (2200 F). The large temperature differences across the thermal barriers at these high temperatures, however, indicate that thermal stresses may present obstacles to the use of coatings at high turbine inlet temperatures.

Nainiger, J. J.↗

Sensitivity Analyses of Natural Convection in the AP1000 Passive Containment Cooling System Following LBLOCA Using CFD

The AP1000 power plant has implemented multiple layers of passive safety systems to enhance reactor safety and ensure system integrity during postulated scenarios, such as loss of coolant accident (LOCA) and main steam line break (MSLB). Among these, the passive containment cooling system (PCCS) is a safety-related system designed to prevent the containment from exceeding the design limits of both pressure and temperature following a postulated design basis accident, by transferring heat from the steel containment vessel to the atmosphere. During LOCA, natural air convection plays a vital role in removing heat from the steel containment vessel to the atmosphere. This is integrated with the condensate film from the Passive Containment Cooling Water Storage Tank (PCCWST). Air natural convection is also the only heat removal mechanism after the dry-out of the PCCWST and during the loss of shutdown decay heat removal (LOSDHR) event. Therefore, it is essential to investigate the thermal hydraulics behavior of the containment under transient conditions to ensure its safety and integrity. This paper presents a simplified CFD/ANSYS FLUENT model developed to analyze the impact of different parameters, such as air relative humidity, air temperature, and steel containment temperature, on the natural convection capability to remove the decay heat following LOCA. The model aims to examine the thermal behavior of the containment and provides a comprehensive understanding of the system's natural convection capability during postulated accidents. The results obtained from the model can be used to improve the safety and integrity of the containment system and provide valuable insights for future research in the field.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Coupling of CTF and RELAP5-3D Within an Enhanced Fidelity Nuclear Power Plant Simulator

A robust and accurate multiphysics engineering simulator is being developed to model the core behavior and system response of pressurized water reactors. This simulator relies on the NESTLE and CTF computer codes to model the neutronics and thermal hydraulics (TH), respectively, inside the core on a nodal scale and on the Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program—Three Dimensional (RELAP5-3D) to model the entire nuclear steam supply system. The RELAP5-3D model includes highly detailed nodalization and multidimensional flow modeling throughout the vessel. Previously, pin-resolved data generated via the Virtual Environment for Reactor Analysis core simulator were used to improve the accuracy of the NESTLE core predictions. The engineering simulator being developed as part of this work uses the 3KEYMASTER platform to couple the enhanced NESTLE model to a nodal-fidelity CTF model to balance run time with accuracy; NESTLE provides node-dependent powers to CTF, and CTF provides node-dependent coolant densities and fuel temperatures to NESTLE.An overlapping domain approach is used for the core TH in which RELAP5-3D provides core boundary conditions based on the system response and CTF provides a node-dependent coolant heating rate to the RELAP5-3D core solution. In the preliminary TH demonstration discussed in this paper, CTF and RELAP5-3D provided similar steady-state core predictions, indicating the hydraulic compatibility between the codes, as well as reasonable and expected behavior under hypothetical transient conditions. This provides an initial step in ongoing efforts toward a robust, multiscale TH/neutronics engineering simulator capability.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

LiAISON (Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models) [SWR-24-01]

We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE)7. We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming. Scientific publication available here: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.2c04246

Ghosh, Tapajyoti↗

Modular Biomass Gasification for Co-Production of Hydrogen and Power

The overall goal of this project was to demonstrate a novel process-intensified and modular Combined Hydrogen, Heat and Power (CH 2 P) production technology, targeting commercial scales of 5-to-10-megawatt electric (MWe) equivalent of hydrogen (H 2 ). The process technology integrates a novel adaptation of the steam-iron process to produce high purity H 2 from gasification of biomass and biomass blends with a compression-ready carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) stream, enabling significant progress towards achieving $1 per kilogram (kg) cost for clean H 2 .

08 HYDROGEN↗

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Prospective Impact Analysis of Novel Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

decarbonizing↗

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗