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At least 451 records · Page 25

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

A Comparative Study of Machine Learning Algorithms for Industry-Specific Freight Generation Model

According to Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the U.S. transportation system handled 14,329 million ton-miles of freight per day in 2020. Understanding the generation of these freight shipments is crucial for transportation researchers, planners, and policymakers to design and plan for a more efficient and connected freight transportation system. Traditionally, the freight generation modeling has been based on Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression, although more advanced Machine Learning (ML) algorithms have been evaluated and proven to have excellent performance in various transportation applications in recent years. Furthermore, one modeling approach applied for one industry might not always be applicable for another as their freight generation logics can be quite different. The objective of this study is to apply and evaluate alternative ML algorithms in the estimation of freight generation for each of 45 industry types. Seven alternative ML algorithms, along with the base OLS regression, were evaluated and compared. In addition, the study considered different combinations of variables in both the original and logarithmic form as well as hyperparameters of those ML algorithms in the model selection for each industry type. The results showed statistically significant improvements in the root mean square error reduction by the alternative ML algorithms over the OLS for over 80% of cases. The study suggests utilizing the alternative ML algorithms can reduce the root mean square error by about 30%, depending on industry types.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

From Latent Dynamics to Meaningful Representations

While representation learning has been central to the rise of machine learning and artificial intelligence, a key problem remains in making the learnt representations meaningful. For this the typical approach is to regularize the learned representation through prior probability distributions. However such priors are usually unavailable or are ad hoc. To deal with this, recent efforts have shifted towards leveraging the insights from physical principles to guide the learning process. In this spirit, we propose a purely dynamics-constrained representation learning framework. Instead of relying on predefined probabilities, we restrict the latent representation to follow overdamped Langevin dynamics with a learnable transition density — a prior driven by statistical mechanics. We show this is a more natural constraint for representation learning in stochastic dynamical systems, with the crucial ability to uniquely identify the ground truth representation. We validate our framework for different systems including a real-world fluorescent DNA movie dataset. Here, we show that our algorithm can uniquely identify orthogonal, isometric and meaningful latent representations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SPHINX: An SEP Model Validation Infrastructure developed through Community Challenges and the SEP Scoreboards

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars (Whitman et al 2022). For these reasons, SEP modelers have developed a rich and diverse set of models with a wide variety of aims. Some models probe the basic physics at the heart of particle acceleration and transport. Others produce fast statistical forecasts or employ disruptive new techniques like Machine Learning with the goal to assist end users in making operational decisions. To enable a consistent and quantitative understanding of SEP model performance, a generalized, automated validation infrastructure, called SPHINX, is being developed at NASA SRAG in close collaboration with NASA CCMC, NASA M2M, NOAA SWPC, and BIRA-IASB. This infrastructure has been built up through a multi-year community challenge. Starting in 2018 at the SHINE workshop, an effort was launched through SHINE, ISWAT, and ESWW to encourage quantitative, comprehensive, and consistent validation of SEP models. This effort has defined a set of challenge SEP events with the aim of generating quantitative comparisons between forecasts and observations and a set of challenge “non-events” to assess false alarms. In 2023, these challenge lists have been extended to statistically significant numbers with a prescribed set of rules for producing forecasts and supported through the dedicated SEPVAL working meetings. The participation of the research community has allowed the infrastructure to validate all the types of outputs being produced by SEP models. In parallel, the SPHINX code is being applied to real time forecasts submitted to the SEP Scoreboards, ensuring that the validation infrastructure can interpret forecasts produced in an operational scenario and provide metrics meaningful for operations. Upon completion, SPHINX and its interactive user interface, SPHINX-Web, will be made available for public use.

space weather↗

DOE OSTI2021

ThickBrick: optimal event selection and categorization in high energy physics. Part I. Signal discovery

We provide a prescription called ThickBrick to train optimal machine-learning-based event selectors and categorizers that maximize the statistical significance of a potential signal excess in high energy physics (HEP) experiments, as quantified by any of six different performance measures. For analyses where the signal search is performed in the distribution of some event variables, our prescription ensures that only the information complementary to those event variables is used in event selection and categorization. This eliminates a major misalignment with the physics goals of the analysis (maximizing the significance of an excess) that exists in the training of typical ML-based event selectors and categorizers. In addition, this decorrelation of event selectors from the relevant event variables prevents the background distribution from becoming peaked in the signal region as a result of event selection, thereby ameliorating the challenges imposed on signal searches by systematic uncertainties. Our event selectors (categorizers) use the output of machine-learning-based classifiers as input and apply optimal selection cutoffs (categorization thresholds) that are functions of the event variables being analyzed, as opposed to flat cutoffs (thresholds). These optimal cutoffs and thresholds are learned iteratively, using a novel approach with connections to Lloyd’s k-means clustering algorithm. We provide a public, Python implementation of our prescription, also called ThickBrick, along with usage examples.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine Learning for Neutron Resonance Evaluations [Slides]

The performance of nuclear reactors and other nuclear systems depends on a precise understanding of the neutron interaction cross sections for materials used in these systems. These cross sections exhibit a resonance structure whose shape is determined in part by the angular momentum quantum numbers of the resonances. The correct assignment of the quantum numbers of neutron resonances is therefore of paramount importance. In this presentation, we describe the application of machine learning to automate the quantum number assignments. Scikit-learn classifiers were trained on simulated resonance data whose statistical properties were chosen to mimic real data. We explored the use of several physics (and random matrix theory)-motivated features for training the classifiers, including the nearest neighbor spacing distribution, cumulative level distribution, and channel width distributions. Initial results demonstrated that we can determine resonance spin groups somewhat reliably. We are now investigating the application of our approach to 52 Cr resonance data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler↗

DOE OSTI2022

FutureTense

Protective vaccines and reliable diagnostics are essential tools for controlling viral diseases. However, the efficacy of these tools can be diminished by mutations in viral genomes. The delay between the emergence of new viral strains and the redesign of vaccines and diagnostics allows for continued viral transmission. Is it possible to address this challenge by computationally predicting viral genome sequence evolution? Can we “future-proof” vaccines and diagnostics by targeting both current and anticipated future sequence variants? While predicting viral evolution is still an unsolved, “grand challenge” problem in biology, the large, and rapidly growing, number of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences provide an opportunity to quantify the ability of machine learning to predict viral genome sequence evolution. Towards this end, we have developed a simple computational model for predicting viral evolution at the level of individual nucleotides. The key metric for quantifying the per-base, prediction accuracy for viral evolution is the Mann-Whitney U statistic (or, equivalently, the area under the receiver operator curve). Since the Mann-Whitney U statistic is not a differentiable function, existing deep leaning packages (like Pytorch and Keras/TensorFlow) are not useful, as they require that the accuracy metric/objective function be analytically differentiable with respect to the model parameters. To overcome this challenge, we have implemented custom software, “FutureTense”, that can train a machine learning model by maximizing the non-differentiable Mann-Whitney U statistic. This software trains a machine learning model by exploring along the direction of the discrete gradient of the Mann-Whitney U statistic in the model parameter space. Parallel computing and genome sequence-specific optimizations are used to accelerate model training. The resulting machine learning model learns the observed high C->U mutation rates in the SARS-CoV-2 genome (which are potentially induced by host defenses) and provides prediction accuracies that are significantly better than one would expect from random chance. While predicting viral evolution is still quite far from a solved problem, the surprising performance of this simple model gives hope that the accuracy of predicting viral genome evolution can be further increased by more sophisticated approaches.

Gans, Jason↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning-based multidomain processing for texture-based image segmentation and analysis

Atomic and molecular resolved atomic force microscopy (AFM) images offer unique insights into materials' properties such as local ordering, molecular orientation, and topological defects, which can be used to pinpoint physical and chemical interactions occurring at the surface. Utilizing machine learning for extracting underlying physical parameters increases the throughput of AFM data processing and eliminates inconsistencies intrinsic to manual image analysis, thus enabling the creation of reliable frameworks for qualitative and quantitative evaluation of experimental data. Here, we present a robust and scalable approach to the segmentation of AFM images based on flexible pre-selected classification criteria. The usage of supervised learning and feature extraction allows us to retain the consideration of specific problem-dependent features (such as types of periodical structures observed in the images and the associated numerical parameters: spacing, orientation, etc.). We highlight the applicability of this approach for the segmentation of molecular resolved AFM images based on the crystal orientation of the observed domains, automated selection of boundaries, and collection of relevant statistics. Finally, we outline a general strategy for machine learning-enabled analysis of nanoscale systems exhibiting periodic order that could be applied to any analytical imaging technique

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiscale Modeling of Reconstructed Tricalcium Silicate using NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool

To study microstructure characteristics of cementitious materials hydrated in space; previously, cement binder formations were processed under microgravity conditions and was further compared against ground-based experiments. For accurate estimation of process-structure-property linkage, particularly on samples hydrated in the microgravity environment, it is desired to have a high-fidelity volumetric representation of the microstructure. However, owing to small sample size and high porosity of the space-returned samples, conventional experimental characterization techniques are not viable. Hence, a deep learning-based reconstruction algorithm was employed to obtain high fidelity 3D volumes from sparse high resolution 2D Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) images, as inputs to micromechanics-based modeling. This machine learning-based reconstruction methodology validated against low-order statistical descriptors, captured the microstructural topology of both sample types (ground, 1g and microgravity, μg). Due to the lack of gravity, hydration products of the samples processed in space differed from those processed-on ground. Such AI-generated virtual samples were analyzed in a multiscale recursive micromechanics approach using the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT). Here, we present a methodology to rapidly integrate and evaluate these AI-generated volumes in NASMAT. The synthesized microstructural volumes are directly employed as Representative Volume Elements (RVEs) to preserve the fidelity (1 pixel = 0.54 m). Invariably, analysis of such largescale problems (5123 voxels) requires huge amount of computational resources. By taking advantage of the NASMAT architecture, we also focused on systematic multiscale integration of these AI-reconstructed virtual volumes to reduce the computational demands. In this work, this methodology is demonstrated on the ground-based, 1g samples. The estimated stiffness value of 15.90 GPa is comparable to experimentally obtained modulus of hydrated tricalcium silicate sample. The workflow presented here paves the way for utilizing the NASMAT tool to perform multiscale analyses of other multi-phase material systems using either 3D virtual datasets synthesized using AI or obtained via micro-CT.

Machine Learning↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sampling lattices in semi-grand canonical ensemble with autoregressive machine learning

Calculating thermodynamic potentials and observables efficiently and accurately is key for the application of statistical mechanics simulations to materials science. However, naive Monte Carlo approaches, on which such calculations are often dependent, struggle to scale to complex materials in many state-of-the-art disciplines such as the design of high entropy alloys or multi-component catalysts. To address this issue, we adapt sampling tools built upon machine learning-based generative modeling to the materials space by transforming them into the semi-grand canonical ensemble. Furthermore, we show that the resulting models are transferable across wide ranges of thermodynamic conditions and can be implemented with any internal energy model U, allowing integration into many existing materials workflows. We demonstrate the applicability of this approach to the simulation of benchmark systems (AgPd, CuAu) that exhibit diverse thermodynamic behavior in their phase diagrams. Finally, we discuss remaining challenges in model development and promising research directions for future improvements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Nanoconfinement Effects Using Active Learning

Predicting the spatial configuration of gas in nanopores of is relevant in applications such as fluid flow forecasting and hydrocarbon reserves estimation. For example, shale reservoirs have suffered from computationally intractable multiscale problems, since fluid properties such as viscosity, density, and adsorption must be calculated by using expensive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations within each nanopore, whereas flow through these connected nanopores must be simulated at the micrometer scale. We utilize machine learning techniques to quickly and accurately model nanoscale confinement effects as an important step toward bridging the nano and micro scales. Our workflow is based on building and training physics-based deep-neural-networks models by learning from a database of MD calculations. The model accounts for the adsorption phenomenon by predicting the statistical distribution of gas inside nanopores. Because large databases of MD calculations are expensive to create, we investigate active learning (AL) as a data set construction strategy. In this workflow, new data are selected based on the model uncertainty via the query-by-committee approach. We show that our workflow obtains accurate models that generalize to real scanning electron microscopy geometries with 1/10th of the number of MD calculations required vs random data set generation. Our method enables the possibility of modeling nanoconfinement effects at the mesoscale, where complex connected sets of nanopores affect flow.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Explainable AI (XAI)-driven vibration sensing scheme for surface quality monitoring in a smart surface grinding process

Local Interpretable and Model-agnostic Explanation (LIME), an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approach is adapted to identify the globally important time-frequency bands for predicting average surface roughness (Ra) in a smart grinding process. The smart grinding setup consisted of a Supertech CNC precision surface grinding machine, instrumented with a Dytran piezoelectric accelerometer attached to the tailstock quill along the tangential direction (Y-axis). For every grinding pass, vibration signatures were captured, and the ground truth surface roughness values were recorded using a Mahr Marsurf M300C portable surface roughness profilometer. The roughness values ranged from 0.06 to 0.14 microns over the complete set of experiments. Time-frequency domain spectrogram frames were extracted for each of the vibration signals collected during the grinding process. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) were modeled to predict the surface roughness based on these spectrogram frames and their image augmentations. The best CNN model was able to predict the roughness values with an overall R2-score of 0.95, training R2-score of 0.99, and testing R2-score of 0.81 with only 80 sets of vibration signals corresponding to 4 experiments with 20 trials each. Although the data size is not large enough to guarantee such performance metrics in real-world scenarios, one can extract statistically consistent explanations underlying the relationships these complex deep learning models capture. Further, the LIME methodology was implemented on the developed surface roughness CNN model to identify the important time-frequency bands (i.e., the superpixels of a spectrogram) influencing the predictions. Based on the identified important regions on the spectrogram frames, the corresponding frequency characteristics were determined that influence the surface roughness predictions. The important frequency range based on LIME results was approximately 11.7 to 19.1 kHz. The power of XAI was demonstrated by cutting down the sampling rate from 160 kHz to 30, 20, 10, and 5 kHz based on the important frequency range and considering Nyquist criteria. Separate CNN models were developed for these ranges by only extracting time-frequency contents below their corresponding Nyquist cut-offs. A proper data acquisition strategy is proposed by comparing the model performances to argue the selection of a sufficient sampling rate to capture the grinding process successfully and robustly.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reprint of: Explainable AI (XAI)-driven vibration sensing scheme for surface quality monitoring in a smart surface grinding process

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ex Machina Determination of Structural Correlation Functions

Determining the structural properties of condensed-phase systems is a fundamental problem in theoretical statistical mechanics. In this study, we present a machine learning method that is able to predict structural correlation functions with significantly improved accuracy in comparison with traditional approaches. The usefulness of this ex machina (from the machine) approach is illustrated by predicting the radial distribution functions of two paradigmatic condensed-phase systems, a Lennard-Jones fluid and a hard-sphere fluid, and then comparing those results to the results obtained using both integral equation methods and empirically motivated analytical functions. We find that application of the developed ex machina method typically decreases the predictive error by more than an order of magnitude in comparison with traditional theoretical methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

STAT_UQ_AI

Code to reproduce results in "Statistical Uncertainty Quantification for Aggregate Performance Metrics in Machine Learning Benchmarks".

Gopalan, Giri↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying Uncertainties of Microscopic Nuclear Theories

The goal of this project was to produce modernized nuclear data libraries of light ion fusion reactions and actinide fission product yields. Such libraries are essential input in both stockpile science but also fundamental science (nucleosynthesis, superheavy nuclei). When such libraries are used to model complex processes involving exotic, very short-lived nuclei that have not been measured experimentally, the underlying nuclear data come from theoretical models, the predictive power of which needs to be quantified, together with its uncertainties. By teaming up nuclear theorists and statisticians, we built comprehensive theoretical frameworks based on the most fundamental theories of fusion and fission that we coupled for the first time with a Bayesian framework with machine learning techniques for uncertainty quantification. Our results include: (1) statistical emulators for neutron-alpha scattering, and the fission product mass yields of neutron-induced fission of 239 Pu, which will enable developers to generate random realizations of the corresponding data for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in applications; (2) the first complete and most accurate ab initio prediction of the S-factor for proton capture on 7 Be, which – combined with UQ – may become the recommended value at solar energies in the next review of solar fusion cross sections; (3) statistical emulators for fission mass yields in the neutron-induced fission of 239 Pu; (4) the first quantification of how uncertainties in nuclear forces impact fission properties that are relevant in nucleosynthesis simulations to explain how heavy elements are formed in the Cosmos.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Data-Driven Framework for Direct Local Tensile Property Prediction of Laser Powder Bed Fusion Parts

This article proposes a generalizable, data-driven framework for qualifying laser powder bed fusion additively manufactured parts using part-specific in situ data, including powder bed imaging, machine health sensors, and laser scan paths. To achieve part qualification without relying solely on statistical processes or feedstock control, a sequence of machine learning models was trained on 6299 tensile specimens to locally predict the tensile properties of stainless-steel parts based on fused multi-modal in situ sensor data and a priori information. A cyberphysical infrastructure enabled the robust spatial tracking of individual specimens, and computer vision techniques registered the ground truth tensile measurements to the in situ data. The co-registered 230 GB dataset used in this work has been publicly released and is available as a set of HDF5 files. The extensive training data requirements and wide range of size scales were addressed by combining deep learning, machine learning, and feature engineering algorithms in a relay. The trained models demonstrated a 61% error reduction in ultimate tensile strength predictions relative to estimates made without any in situ information. Lessons learned and potential improvements to the sensors and mechanical testing procedure are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

One Million Open-source Cislunar Orbits

Cislunar space, encompassing the region from geosynchronous orbit to beyond the Moon, is poised to become a cornerstone for future exploration, scientific discovery, and national security. Missions in this region, spanning durations from weeks to decades, require robust infrastructure and reliable transit capabilities. The complex gravitational influences of the Moon, Sun, and planets, along with thermal radiation from Earth and the Sun, lead to significant trajectory deviations, resulting in kilometer-scale errors within days. Leveraging the high-performance computing resources at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), we have simulated one million high-fidelity cislunar trajectories, now publicly available via LLNL’s Green Data Oasis and the Unified Data Library. Generated using the open-source Space Situational Awareness Python package, these trajectories match the precision of commercial tools such as AGI’s Systems Tool Kit and NASA’s General Mission Analysis Tool. This data set is a valuable resource for reference, statistical analysis of cislunar orbit populations, and training machine learning models for rapid orbit classification with minimal observational input. Preliminary analysis reveals stable bands in Keplerian element space, particularly around five geosynchronous radii across a range of inclinations and eccentricities. Beyond this threshold, the Moon’s influence disrupts most unassisted orbits, though co-orbiting L4/L5 Lunar Trojans persist throughout the six-year simulation.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗