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NASA NTRS2010

Physical Invariants of Intelligence

A program of research is dedicated to development of a mathematical formalism that could provide, among other things, means by which living systems could be distinguished from non-living ones. A major issue that arises in this research is the following question: What invariants of mathematical models of the physics of systems are (1) characteristic of the behaviors of intelligent living systems and (2) do not depend on specific features of material compositions heretofore considered to be characteristic of life? This research at earlier stages has been reported, albeit from different perspectives, in numerous previous NASA Tech Briefs articles. To recapitulate: One of the main underlying ideas is to extend the application of physical first principles to the behaviors of living systems. Mathematical models of motor dynamics are used to simulate the observable physical behaviors of systems or objects of interest, and models of mental dynamics are used to represent the evolution of the corresponding knowledge bases. For a given system, the knowledge base is modeled in the form of probability distributions and the mental dynamics is represented by models of the evolution of the probability densities or, equivalently, models of flows of information. At the time of reporting the information for this article, the focus of this research was upon the following aspects of the formalism: Intelligence is considered to be a means by which a living system preserves itself and improves its ability to survive and is further considered to manifest itself in feedback from the mental dynamics to the motor dynamics. Because of the feedback from the mental dynamics, the motor dynamics attains quantum-like properties: The trajectory of the physical aspect of the system in the space of dynamical variables splits into a family of different trajectories, and each of those trajectories can be chosen with a probability prescribed by the mental dynamics. From a slightly different perspective, the mechanism of decision-making is feedback from the mental dynamics to the motor dynamics, and this mechanism provides a quantum-like collapse of a random motion into an appropriate deterministic state, such that entropy undergoes a pronounced decrease. The existence of this mechanism is considered to be an invariant of intelligent behavior of living systems, regardless of the origins and material compositions of the systems.

Zak, Michail↗

NASA NTRS1993

Measurements of dimethyl sulfide and H2S over the western North Atlantic and the tropical Atlantic

Airborne measurements of DMS and H2S were made off the east coast of the United States and over the tropical Atlantic off Brazil. Samples were collected through a fluorinated ethylene propylene Teflon inlet manifold. Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) was preconcentrated onto gold wool and analyzed by gas chromatography/flame photometric detection. H2S was collected on AgNO3-impregnated filters and determined by fluorescence quenching. Use of a new scrubber material (cotton) to remove negative interference on DMS measurements was investigated. Comparison with a Na2CO3/Anakrom scrubber gave good overall agreement. Only under extreme conditions, e.g., on flight 9 (continental air mass, low humidity, high O3, and low DMS values) did Na2CO3 show noticeable loss of DMS compared to cotton. On most flights, especially in marine air masses with high humidity and relatively low O3, the results from both scrubbers agreed well with each other and with other instruments used during the intercalibration. Off the U.S. East Coast, DMS levels showed strong dependence on air mass origin with high values (up to 83 ppt) in marine tropical air masses and low values (10-20 ppt) in continental and polar air. Over the tropical Atlantic, DMS ranged over 20-100 ppt in the mixed layer. Nighttime values were a factor of 1.6-2.3 higher than daytime levels. DMS decreased with altitude to less than 1 ppt at 4000 m. H2S in the mixed layer off the U.S. East Coast ranged from 10 to 200 ppt. Significant influence from terrestrial and pollution sources was evident. H2S in air masses originating over the eastern seaboard was much higher than in continental polar air or over the remote tropical continents. In contrast, over the tropical Atlantic, concentrations were very low (5-10 ppt), typical of truly marine air. Night/day ratios were about 1.4. No significant geographical variability was seen in H2S levels over the tropical Atlantic. The correlation of atmospheric Rn-222 and H2S was significant, with both being higher off the U.S. East Coast than over the tropical Atlantic.

Andreae, T. W.↗

NASA NTRS1999

A View of the Lunar Interior Through Lunar Laser Range Analysis

Laser ranges between observatories on the Earth and retroreflectors on the Moon started in 1969 and continue to the present. Recent range accuracies are 2 cm while earliest ranges are an C, order of magnitude less certain. Four retroreflectors are ranged: three located at the Apollo 11, 14, and 15 sites and one on the Lunakhod 2 rover. Accurate analysis of the range data determines a number of lunar science parameters. The lunar interior variables include a fluid core parameter. The Lunar Laser Ranging effort is reviewed elsewhere. Many parameters are detected through their influence on rotation. Also detected are solid-body tides and accurate selenocentric reflector locations. Determined through the rotation are moment-of-inertia differences, gravitational harmonics, potential Love number, and dissipation effects due to tides and molten core. The rotation of the Moon is not at its minimum energy state; some recently active process has caused free librations. The moment differences contributed to the recent improvement of the Moon's moment of inertia from the Lunar Prospector gravity field. The Love numbers provide bulk elastic properties. Future possibilities for measurement include oblateness of the core-mantle boundary and core moment. A study of dissipation signatures in the rotation determines tidal Q vs. frequency and concludes that the Moon has a molten core. At 1 month the tidal Q is 37 and at 1 yr it is 60. The core radius is < or = 352 km for Fe and < or = 374 km for the Fe-FeS eutectic. The core detection exceeds 3x its uncertainty. The spin of the core is not aligned with the spin of the mantle and torque arises from the velocity difference at the boundary. Yoder's turbulent boundary layer theory is used to compute the radii. The present heat generation from tides and core interaction is minor compared to radiogenic heating. The heating for ancient times is more interesting. Peale and Cassen investigated lunar tidal heating while the lunar orbit expanded due to tides on Earth. Their calculations predate the measurement of Q and should be multiplied by 3.45 to match the lunar-laser-determined Love number and monthly Q. Tidal-heating computations depend on how fast the lunar orbit evolved and whether the tidal dissipation is localized. Neither is known, but plausible assumptions lead to early central region temperature increases of several hundred degrees. Most of the energy is deposited early in the Moon's history. The turbulent boundary layer theory allows a prediction of energy dissipated at the core-mantle boundary during orbit evolution. Under the assumption that the properties of the early core are the same as at present, the energy dissipated by core-mantle interaction is about the same as for tidal dissipation, but it is deposited in a smaller volume. This source of energy is capable of promoting convection in an early fluid core and driving a dynamo. This is a transient phase with a duration depending on the rate of orbit evolution. Plausible assumptions lead to a duration of a few hundred million years. Thus, the remnant magnetization of many lunar rocks is compatible with a brief global magnetic field powered by dynamical energy dissipation. Analysis of the lunar laser ranges is providing information on lunar geophysics. Future data will improve accuracies of present solution parameters, and several more interior effects should be detectable.

Williams, J. G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Radiation, Water and Energy Closure in Key Deep Tropical Regions Over the Last 3 Decades

The closure of global energy and water budgets at various time scales depends heavily upon the on the processes of water and energy exchange in the deep tropics. A key process observed is the change in convection regimes from disorganized convection to organized deep convection. During these periods an imbalance in key tropical regions is observed of water budget terms between observations and atmospheric reanalysis systems, implying that processes are not simulated well. For instance, periods of imbalance in the water budget may be at least partly attributed to precipitation estimates due to the transition between cloud and precipitation systems in which ice cloud affects microwave radar estimates (Lietmann-Niimi et al. 2024, submitted). A recent paper by Hsaio et al (2023, pre-published version) found that the transition process is characterized by wind shear and longwave cloud radiative feedback signatures as well. This is just one example how these processes also affect the radiative fluxes and thus the energy budget at the TOA. In this presentation, we assess the net radiative budget and components in the deep tropics by comparing multiple data products (GEWEX SRB Rel4IP, CERES EBAF/SYN1deg Ed4.2, ISSCP FH, etc.) and describing the temporal variability of energy balance terms across the deep tropics for the period from 1988 to near present in six key oceanic regions. These six key tropical oceanic regions are West Indian Ocean, the south Indian Ocean east, tropical western, central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and Tropical Atlantic Ocean. In these regions we assess the sensitivity of the fluxes as a function of fluctuations in cloud types in response to various larger scale atmospheric processes (e.g. El Niño, Indian Ocean Dipole). We assess this variability of the radiative flux anomalies (including the net TOA, surface and the atmospheric divergence fluxes) against water vapor divergence, cloud properties (include ISCCP “Weather States, Tselioudis et al. 2021) and larger scale wind shear to assess the uncertainties of energy closure in these regions. These are contrasted against the modeled radiative fluxes from ERA-5 and MERRA-2. Ocean buoy measurements of radiative fluxes are utilized to help assess data radiative flux uncertainty over the nearly 40 year period. In general, the variability for overlap periods of these various data products agrees well, but there are significant differences in the net fluxes that vary according to the rendering of surface, atmospheric, aerosol and cloud properties. These differences also affect closure terms and inferences on systematic uncertainties within the observational estimates. We conclude with recommendations for continuing work

Radiation budget↗

NASA NTRS1962

BOILING HEAT TRANSFER TO LIQUID HYDROGEN AND NITROGEN IN FORCED FLOW

Boiling heat transfer to liquid hydrogen and nitrogen was investigated experimentally. Results are presented from a study of bulk boiling inside a cylindrical tube under vertically upward forced-flow conditions. A 0.555-inch-inside-diameter and 16 (1/8)-inch-long electrically heated stainless-steel tube was used. The range of variables studied for hydrogen were mass velocity of 2850 to 17,000 pounds per hour per square foot, local heat flux of 3600 to 40,000 Btu per hour per square foot, inlet pressure of 30 to 74 pounds per square inch absolute, and inlet subcooling of 0° to 9° R. Nitrogen test conditions were mass velocity of 15,000 to 56,000 pounds per hour per square foot, local heat flux of 2300 to 40,000 Btu per hour per square foot, inlet pressure of 47 to 56 pounds per square inch absolute, and inlet sub cooling of 1° to 6° R. The axial distribution of the tube-wall temperatures is presented. A transition in the type of boiling heat transfer was obtained. The critical heat flux corresponding to this transition was determined over a range of flow and heating rates and local qualities. At specific combinations of flow and transition location, a range of critical-heat-flux values was obtained and maximum values were determined. The maximum critical heat flux increased with increasing fluid-flow rate and decreased with increasing length of tube before transition. Similar variations of the maximum critical heat flux have been reported for water. The tube-inner-wall temperatures upstream of transition were essentially uniform and were only slightly greater than the fluid saturation temperature. The Wall-temperature profiles downstream of transition generally resembled those obtained in film-boiling studies and appeared to be strongly dependent upon local quality at the point of transition. Maximum wall temperatures of 9000 and 18000 R were obtained with hydrogen and nitrogen, respectively. Fluctuations of pressure, flow rate, and temperature occurred during some of the boiling tests. Under some conditions, maximum critical-heat-flux values were attained during steady-state operation with fluctuations. In other cases the fluctuations became uncontrolled, and critical-flux values less than the maximum values were obtained upon restabilization of the test conditions. No measurable pressure drop across the test section was obtained at any condition.

LIQUID HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Meteorological Model's Dependence on Radiation Update Frequency

Numerical weather models are used to simulate circulations in the atmosphere including clouds and precipitation by applying a set of mathematical equations over a three-dimensional grid. The grid is composed of discrete points at which the meteorological variables are defined. As computing power continues to rise these models are being used at finer grid spacing, but they must still cover a wide range of scales. Some of the physics that must be accounted for in the model cannot be explicitly resolved, and their effects, therefore, must be estimated or "parameterized". Some of these parameterizations are computationally expensive. To alleviate the problem, they are not always updated at the time resolution of the model with the assumption being that the impact will be small. In this study, a coupled land-atmosphere model is used to assess the impact of less frequent updates of the computationally expensive radiation physics for a case on June 6, 2002, that occurred during a field experiment over the central plains known as International H20 Project (IHOP). The model was tested using both the original conditions, which were dry, and with modified conditions wherein moisture was added to the lower part of the atmosphere to produce clouds and precipitation (i.e., a wet case). For each of the conditions (i.e., dry and wet), four set of experiments were conducted wherein the model was run for a period of 24 hours and the radiation fields (including both incoming solar and outgoing longwave) were updated every 1, 3, 10, and 100 time steps. Statistical tests indicated that average quantities of surface variables for both the dry and wet cases were the same for the various update frequencies. However, spatially the results could be quite different especially in the wet case after it began to rain. The near-surface wind field was found to be different most of the time even for the dry case. In the wet case, rain intensities and average vertical profiles of heating associated with cloudy areas were found to differ for the various radiation update frequencies. The latter implies that the mean state of the model could be different as a result of not updating the radiation fields every time step and has important implications for longer term climate studies

Eastman, Joseph L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

On the decay of outbursts in dwarf novae nad X-ray novae

We perform computations using a time-dependent model for the accretion disk limit-cycle mechanism to examine the decay of the optical light following the peak of a dwarf nova outburst. We present the results of a parameter study of the physical input variables which affect the decay rate. In the model, the decay is brought about by a cooling transition front which begins at large radii in the disk and moves inward. The nature of the decay is strongly influenced by the radial dependence of the accretion disk viscosity parameter alpha. To obtain exponential decays for typical dwarf nova parameters, we require alpha proportional to r(exp epsilon(sub 0)), where epsilon(sub 0) approximately = 0.3-0.4. The exact value of epsilon(sub 0) which produces exponential decays depends on factors such as the mass of the accreting star and the inner radius of the accretion disk. Therefore, the observed ubiquity of exponential decays in two different types of systems (dwarf novae and X-ray novae) leads us to believe that alpha is an unnatural scaling for the viscosity. The physics of the cooling transition front must be self-regulating in that the timescale (-parital derivative of lnSigma(r)/partial derivative +)(exp -1) (where Sigma is the surface density) for mass extraction across the front remains constant. This may be consistent with a scaling alpha proportional to (h/r)(exp n), where h is the local disk semi-thickness and n approximately 1-2. As regards the speed of the cooling front, we find v(sub F)(r) proportional to r(exp p), where p approximately 3 at large radii, with an abrupt transition to p approximately 0 at some smaller radius. The r(exp 3) dependence is much steeper than has been found by previous workers and appears to result from the strong variation of specific heat within the cooling front when the front resides at a large radius in the disk. The outflow of disk material across the cooling front causes a significant departure of dln T(sub dff0/dln r from the standard value of -0.75 (expected from steady state accretion) within about 0.2 dex in radius of the break associated with the cooling front -- T(sub eff) aproximately 10(exp 3.9) K (r/10(exp 10 cm)) (exp -0.1). These effects should be observable with eclipse mapping. Finally, it appears that the relatively slow decay rate for the optical flux in the 1975 outburst of A0620-00 can be accounted for if the primary is a approximately 10 Solar mass black hole.

Cannizzo, John K.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Structural Reliability Using Probability Density Estimation Methods Within NESSUS

A reliability analysis studies a mathematical model of a physical system taking into account uncertainties of design variables and common results are estimations of a response density, which also implies estimations of its parameters. Some common density parameters include the mean value, the standard deviation, and specific percentile(s) of the response, which are measures of central tendency, variation, and probability regions, respectively. Reliability analyses are important since the results can lead to different designs by calculating the probability of observing safe responses in each of the proposed designs. All of this is done at the expense of added computational time as compared to a single deterministic analysis which will result in one value of the response out of many that make up the density of the response. Sampling methods, such as monte carlo (MC) and latin hypercube sampling (LHS), can be used to perform reliability analyses and can compute nonlinear response density parameters even if the response is dependent on many random variables. Hence, both methods are very robust; however, they are computationally expensive to use in the estimation of the response density parameters. Both methods are 2 of 13 stochastic methods that are contained within the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) program. NESSUS is a probabilistic finite element analysis (FEA) program that was developed through funding from NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). It has the additional capability of being linked to other analysis programs; therefore, probabilistic fluid dynamics, fracture mechanics, and heat transfer are only a few of what is possible with this software. The LHS method is the newest addition to the stochastic methods within NESSUS. Part of this work was to enhance NESSUS with the LHS method. The new LHS module is complete, has been successfully integrated with NESSUS, and been used to study four different test cases that have been proposed by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE). The test cases compare different probabilistic methods within NESSUS because it is important that a user can have confidence that estimates of stochastic parameters of a response will be within an acceptable error limit. For each response, the mean, standard deviation, and 0.99 percentile, are repeatedly estimated which allows confidence statements to be made for each parameter estimated, and for each method. Thus, the ability of several stochastic methods to efficiently and accurately estimate density parameters is compared using four valid test cases. While all of the reliability methods used performed quite well, for the new LHS module within NESSUS it was found that it had a lower estimation error than MC when they were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, and 0.99 percentile of the four different stochastic responses. Also, LHS required a smaller amount of calculations to obtain low error answers with a high amount of confidence than MC. It can therefore be stated that NESSUS is an important reliability tool that has a variety of sound probabilistic methods a user can employ and the newest LHS module is a valuable new enhancement of the program.

Chamis, Chrisos C.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Finding the magnetopause location using soft X-ray observations and a statistical inverse method

Variability in the location and shape of the dayside magnetopause is attributed to magnetic reconnection, a fundamental process that enables the transfer of mass, energy, and momentum from the solar wind into the magnetosphere. The spatial and temporal properties of the magnetopause, under varying solar and magnetospheric conditions, remain largely unknown because empirical studies using in-situ observations are challenging to interpret. Global wide field-of-view (FOV) imaging is the only means to simultaneously observe the spatial distribution of the plasma properties over the vast dayside magnetospheric region and, subsequently, quantify the energy transport from the interplanetary medium into the terrestrial magnetosphere. Two upcoming missions, ESA/CAS SMILE and NASA’s LEXI will provide wide-field imagery of the dayside magnetosheath in soft X-rays, an emission generated by charge exchange interactions between high charge-state heavy ions of solar wind origin and exospheric neutral atoms. High-cadence two-dimensional observations of the magnetosheath will allow the estimation of dynamic properties of its inner boundary, the magnetopause, and enable studies of its response to changes in the solar wind dynamic pressure and interplanetary magnetic field orientation. This work introduces a statistically-based estimation approach based on inverse theory to estimate the spatial distribution of magnetosheath soft X-ray emissivities and, with this, identify the location of the magnetopause over the Sun−Earth line. To do so, we simulate the magnetosheath structure using the MHD-based OpenGGCM model and generate synthetic soft X-ray images using LEXI’s orbit and attitude information. Our results show that 3-D estimations using the described statistically-based technique are robust against Poisson-distributed shot noise inherent to soft X-ray images. Also, our proposed methodology shows that the accuracy of both three-dimensional (3-D) estimation and the magnetopause standoff distance calculation highly depends on the observational point.

Gonzalo Cucho-Padin↗

NASA NTRS2012

Primary Volatile Abundances in Comets from Infrared Spectroscopy: Implications for Reactions on Grain Surfaces in the Interstellar/Nebular Environment

Comets retain relatively primitive icy material remaining from the epoch of Solar System formation, however the extent to which they are modified from their initial state remains a key question in cometary science. High-resolution lR spectroscopy has emerged as a powerful tool for measuring vibrational emissions from primary volatiles (i.e., those contained in the nuclei of comets). With modern instrumentation, most notably NIRSPEC at the Keck II 10-m telescope, we can quantify species of astrobiological importance (e.g., H20, C2H2, CH4, C2H6, CO, H2CO, CH30H, HCN, NH3). In space environments, compounds of keen interest to astrobiology could originate from HCN and NH3 (leading to amino acids), H2CO (leading to sugars), or C2H6 and CH4 (suggested precursors of ethyl- and methylamine). Measuring the abundances of these precursor molecules (and their variability among comets) is a feasible task that contributes to understanding their delivery to Earth's early biosphere and to the synthesis of more complex pre biotic compounds. Over 20 comets have now been measured with IR spectroscopy, and this sample reveals significant diversity in primary volatile compositions. From this, a taxonomic classification scheme is emerging, presumably reflecting the diverse conditions experienced by pre-cometary grains in interstellar and subsequent nebular environs. The importance of H-atom addition to C2H2 on the surfaces of interstellar grains to produce C2H6 was validated by the discovery of abundant ethane in comet C/1996 B2 (Hyakutake) with C2H6/CH4 well above that achievable by gas-phase chemistry , and then in irradiation experiments on laboratory ices at 10 - 50 K. The large abundance ratios C2H6/CH4 observed universally in comets establish H-atom addition as an important and likely ubiquitous process, and comparing C2H6/C2H2 among comets can provide information on its efficiency. The IR is uniquely capable since symmetric hydrocarbons (e.g., C2H2, CH4, C2H6) have no electric dipole moment and thus no allowed pure rotational transitions. CO should also be hydrogenated on grain surfaces. Irradiation experiments on interstellar ice analogs show this to require very low temperatures, the resulting yields of H2CO and CH30H being highly dependent on temperature in the range approx 10 - 25 K. The relative abundances of these chemically-related molecules in comets provide one measure of the efficiency of H-atom addition to CO Oxidation of CO is also important on grain mantles, as evidenced by the widespread presence of C02 ice towards interstellar sources observed with ISO and in a survey of 17 comets observed with AKARI. H-atom addition to C2H2 produces the vinyl radical, and through subsequent oxidation1reduction reactions can lead to vinyl alcohol, acetaldehyde, and ethanol This may have implications for interpreting observed abundance ratios CO/C2H2. We will discuss possible implications regarding formation conditions in the context of measured primary volatile compositions, emphasizing recently observed comets and published results. These are continually providing new insights regarding our taxonomic scheme and also delivery of pre-biological material to the young Earth.

DiSanti, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Highlights of TOMS Version 9 Total Ozone Algorithm

The fundamental basis of TOMS total ozone algorithm was developed some 45 years ago by Dave and Mateer. It was designed to estimate total ozone from satellite measurements of the backscattered UV radiances at few discrete wavelengths in the Huggins ozone absorption band (310-340 nm). Over the years, as the need for higher accuracy in measuring total ozone from space has increased, several improvements to the basic algorithms have been made. They include: better correction for the effects of aerosols and clouds, an improved method to account for the variation in shape of ozone profiles with season, latitude, and total ozone, and a multi-wavelength correction for remaining profile shape errors. These improvements have made it possible to retrieve total ozone with just 3 spectral channels of moderate spectral resolution (approx. 1 nm) with accuracy comparable to state-of-the-art spectral fitting algorithms like DOAS that require high spectral resolution measurements at large number of wavelengths. One of the deficiencies of the TOMS algorithm has been that it doesn't provide an error estimate. This is a particular problem in high latitudes when the profile shape errors become significant and vary with latitude, season, total ozone, and instrument viewing geometry. The primary objective of the TOMS V9 algorithm is to account for these effects in estimating the error bars. This is done by a straightforward implementation of the Rodgers optimum estimation method using a priori ozone profiles and their error covariances matrices constructed using Aura MLS and ozonesonde data. The algorithm produces a vertical ozone profile that contains 1-2.5 pieces of information (degrees of freedom of signal) depending upon solar zenith angle (SZA). The profile is integrated to obtain the total column. We provide information that shows the altitude range in which the profile is best determined by the measurements. One can use this information in data assimilation and analysis. A side benefit of this algorithm is that it is considerably simpler than the present algorithm that uses a database of 1512 profiles to retrieve total ozone. These profiles are tedious to construct and modify. Though conceptually similar to the SBUV V8 algorithm that was developed about a decade ago, the SBUV and TOMS V9 algorithms differ in detail. The TOMS algorithm uses 3 wavelengths to retrieve the profile while the SBUV algorithm uses 6-9 wavelengths, so TOMS provides less profile information. However both algorithms have comparable total ozone information and TOMS V9 can be easily adapted to use additional wavelengths from instruments like GOME, OMI and OMPS to provide better profile information at smaller SZAs. The other significant difference between the two algorithms is that while the SBUV algorithm has been optimized for deriving monthly zonal means by making an appropriate choice of the a priori error covariance matrix, the TOMS algorithm has been optimized for tracking short-term variability using month and latitude dependent covariance matrices.

Bhartia, Pawan↗

NASA NTRS1994

X-ray color analysis of the spectra of active galactic nuclei

The identification and detection of X-ray absorption and emission features depends on the resolution and the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the observation, the understanding of the instrument response, and the Galactic line-of-sight absorption. Since many of the active galactic nucleus (AGN) data sets are limited in their S/N and full modeling of the physical conditions is rather complicated, we suggest a new analysis method based on 'X-ray colors.' The two sets of X-ray colors, defined for low (ROSAT Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC)) and medium (Broad Band X-Ray Telescope (BBXRT)) and ASCA Solid-State Imaging Spectrometers (SIS) resolution experiments, are used to separate regions of different physical conditions in a two-dimensional color-color plane. They are similar but superior to previous methods using the X-ray 'hardness ratio' in being able to reveal more of the physical properties of the source. We illustrate the use of such diagrams by studying a number of AGNs suspected of showing absorption features. A sample of 14 AGNs observed by the ROSAT PSPC is presented which includes several objects with suspected 'warm absorbers' along the line-of-sight to the nucleus, several others exhibiting intrinsic continuum variations, and a number of control objects thought to be featureless. Our new observations show, for the first time, the color variation as a function of time for three of the Seyfert 1 sources: NGC 4051, Mrk 335, and Mrk 766. The variations suggest that in two sources we are witnessing real changes in continuum shape, while one (NGC 4051) is consistent with having a warm absorber. Four of the objects observed by BBXRT are reanalyzed using our X-ray colors. Out of these, we discuss in detail the case of NGC 4151 and show that the color-color analysis agrees very well with previous, detailed spectral fitting methods. In particular, we confirm that the observed BBXRT observation of this source is not consistent with the warm absorber explanation and must be interpreted as a combination of a variable hard component and another component. We explain the limitations in measuring low-energy emission features in ASCA SIS observations and present color-color diagrams which can be used as a powerful diagnostic tool in the analysis of data collected by this experiment.

Netzer, Hagai↗

NASA NTRS2002

Optimal Design of Functionally Graded Metallic Foam Insulations

The focus of our work has been on developing an insight into the physics that govern the optimum design of thermal insulation for use in thermal protection systems of launch vehicle. Of particular interest was to obtain optimality criteria for designing foam insulations that have density (or porosity) distributions through the thickness for optimum thermal performance. We investigate the optimum design of functionally graded thermal insulation for steady state heat transfer through the foam. We showed that the heat transfer in the foam has competing modes, of radiation and conduction. The problem assumed a fixed inside temperature of 400 K and varied the aerodynamic surface heating on the outside surface from 0.2 to 1.0 MW/sq m. The thermal insulation develops a high temperature gradient through the thickness. Investigation of the model developed for heat conduction in foams showed that at high temperatures (as on outside wall) intracellular radiation dominates the heat transfer in the foam. Minimizing radiation requires reducing the pore size, which increases the density of the foam. At low temperatures (as on the inside wall), intracellular conduction (of the metal and air) dominates the heat transfer. Minimizing conduction requires increasing the pore size. This indicated that for every temperature there was an optimum value of density that minimized the heat transfer coefficient. Two optimization studies were performed. One was to minimize the heat transmitted though a fixed thickness insulation by varying density profiles. The second was to obtain the minimum mass insulation for specified thickness. Analytical optimality criteria were derived for the cases considered. The optimality condition for minimum heat transfer required that at each temperature we find the density that minimizes the heat transfer coefficient. Once a relationship between the optimum heat transfer coefficient and the temperature was found, the design problem reduced to the solution of a simple nonlinear differential equation. Preliminary results of this work were presented at the American Society of Composites meeting, and the final version was submitted for publication in the AIAA Journal. In addition to minimizing the transmitted heat, we investigated the optimum design for minimum weight given an acceptable level of heat transmission through the insulation. The optimality criterion developed was different from that obtained for minimizing beat transfer coefficient. For minimum mass design, we had to find for a given temperature the optimum density, which minimized the logarithmic derivative of the insulation thermal conductivity with respect to its density. The logarithmic derivative is defined as the ratio of relative change in the dependent response (thermal conductivity) to the relative change in the independent variable (density). The results have been documented as a conference paper that will be presented at the upcoming AIAA.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Revisiting the Effectiveness Of HCHO/NO2 Ratios for Inferring Ozone Sensitivity to Its Precursors Using High Resolution Airborne Remote Sensing Observations in A High Ozone Episode During the KORUS-AQ Campaign

The nonlinear chemical processes involved in ozone production (P(O3)) have necessitated using proxy indicators to convey information about the primary dependence of P(O3) on volatile organic compounds (VOCs) or nitrogen oxides (NOx). In particular, the ratio of remotely sensed columns of formaldehyde (HCHO) to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) has been widely used for studying O3 sensitivity. Previous studies found that the errors in retrievals and the incoherent relationship between the column and the near-surface concentrations are a barrier in applying the ratio in a robust way. In addition to these obstacles, we provide calculational-observational evidence, using an ensemble of 0-D photochemical box models constrained by DC-8 aircraft measurements on an ozone event during the Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) campaign over Seoul, to demonstrate the chemical feedback of NO2 on the formation of HCHO is a controlling factor for the transition line between NOx-sensitive and NOx-saturated regimes. A fixed value (~2.7) of the ratio of the chemical loss of NOx (LNOx) to the chemical loss of HO2+RO2 (LROx) perceptibly differentiates the regimes. Following this value, data points with a ratio of HCHO/NO2 less than 1 can be safely classified as NOx-saturated regime, whereas points with ratios between 1 and 4 fall into one or the other regime. We attribute this mainly to the HCHO-NO2 chemical relationship causing the transition line to occur at larger (smaller) HCHO/NO2 ratios in VOC-rich (VOC-poor) environments. We then redefine the transition line to LNOx/LROx~2.7 that accounts for the HCHO-NO2 chemical relationship leading to HCHO = 3.7 × (NO2 – 1.14 × 1016 molec.cm-2). Although the revised formula is locally calibrated (i.e., requires for readjustment for other regions), its mathematical format removes the need for having a wide range of thresholds used in HCHO/NO2 ratios that is a result of the chemical feedback. Therefore, to be able to properly take the chemical feedback into consideration, the use of HCHO = a × (NO2 – b) formula should be preferred to the ratio in future works. We then use the Geostationary Trace gas and Aerosol Sensor Optimization (GeoTASO) airborne instrument to study O3 sensitivity in Seoul. The unprecedented spatial (250 × 250 m2) and temporal (~every 2 h) resolutions of HCHO and NO2 observations form the sensor enhance our understanding of P(O3) in Seoul; rather than providing a crude label for the entire city, more in-depth variabilities in chemical regimes are observed that should be able to inform mitigation strategies correspondingly.

KORUS-AQ; formaldehyde; NOx; VOC; OMI; GeoTASO; oz↗

NASA NTRS2002

Major Effects of Nonmetallic Inclusions on the Fatigue Life of Disk Superalloy Demonstrated

The fatigue properties of modern powder metallurgy disk alloys can vary because of the different steps of materials and component processing and machining. Among these variables, the effects of nonmetallic inclusions introduced during the powder atomization and handling processes have been shown to significantly degrade low-cycle fatigue life. The levels of inclusion contamination have, therefore, been reduced to less than 1 part per million in state-of-the-art nickel disk powder-processing facilities. Yet the large quantities of compressor and turbine disks weighing from 100 to over 1000 lb have enough total volume and surface area for these rare inclusions to still be present and limit fatigue life. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects on fatigue life of these inclusions, as part of the Crack Resistant Disk Materials task within the Ultra Safe Propulsion Project. Inclusions were carefully introduced at elevated levels in a nickel-base disk superalloy, U720, produced using powder metallurgy processing. Multiple strain-controlled fatigue tests were then performed on extracted test specimens at 650 C. Analyses were performed to compare the low-cycle fatigue lives and failure initiation sites as functions of inclusion content and fatigue conditions. Powder of the nickel-base superalloy U720 was atomized in argon at Special Metals Corporation, Inc., using production-scale high-cleanliness powder-processing facilities and handling practices. The powder was then passed through a 270-mesh screen. One portion of this powder was set aside for subsequent consolidation without introduced inclusions. Two other portions of this powder were seeded with alumina inclusions. Small, polycrystalline soft (Type 2) inclusions of about 50 mm diameter were carefully prepared and blended into one powder lot, and larger hard (Type 1) inclusions of about 150 mm mean diameter were introduced into the other seeded portion of powder. All three portions of powder were then sealed in separate containers, hot isostatically pressurized, extruded, forged into subscale disks, and heat treated. Low-cycle-fatigue specimens were then extracted, machined, and tested. Fatigue tests were performed at 650 C in closed-loop servohydraulic testing machines using induction heating and axial extensometers. All tests were continued to failure, and fractographic evaluations were performed on all specimens to determine the crack initiation sites. A large majority of the failures in specimens with introduced inclusions occurred at cracks initiating from inclusions at the specimen surface, as shown for each type of inclusion in the following bar chart. The inclusions significantly reduced fatigue life from unseeded material levels, as shown in the bar chart. These effects were found to depend on the strain range, strain ratio, and inclusion size. Tests at lower strain ranges and higher strain ratios resulted in larger effects of inclusions on life. Inclusion effects on life were thereby maximized in tests at the lowest strain range of 0.6 percent and the most positive strain ratio of 0.5. Under these conditions, small Type 2 inclusions reduced life substantially-- about 20 times, whereas large Type 1 inclusions dramatically reduced life 100 times. These results clearly demonstrate that it is essential to include the effects of inclusions for realistic predictions of disk fatigue life. Important issues, including temperature dependence, crack initiation versus propagation, surface treatments, realistic disk features and machining, and realistic disk spin testing will be addressed to accurately model inclusion effects on disk fatigue life. Fatigue life varied from well over 105 cycles for no inclusions to a little over 103 cycles for 100-micrometer inclusions. A single crack initiating at a surface-connected seeded inclusion caused failure in each case.

Gabb, Timothy P.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Orbit Determination of Spacecraft in Earth-Moon L1 and L2 Libration Point Orbits

The ARTEMIS mission, part of the THEMIS extended mission, is the first to fly spacecraft in the Earth-Moon Lissajous regions. In 2009, two of the five THEMIS spacecraft were redeployed from Earth-centered orbits to arrive in Earth-Moon Lissajous orbits in late 2010. Starting in August 2010, the ARTEMIS P1 spacecraft executed numerous stationkeeping maneuvers, initially maintaining a lunar L2 Lissajous orbit before transitioning into a lunar L1 orbit. The ARTEMIS P2 spacecraft entered a L1 Lissajous orbit in October 2010. In April 2011, both ARTEMIS spacecraft will suspend Lissajous stationkeeping and will be maneuvered into lunar orbits. The success of the ARTEMIS mission has allowed the science team to gather unprecedented magnetospheric measurements in the lunar Lissajous regions. In order to effectively perform lunar Lissajous stationkeeping maneuvers, the ARTEMIS operations team has provided orbit determination solutions with typical accuracies on the order of 0.1 km in position and 0.1 cm/s in velocity. The ARTEMIS team utilizes the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS), using a batch least squares method, to process range and Doppler tracking measurements from the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN), Berkeley Ground Station (BGS), Merritt Island (MILA) station, and United Space Network (USN). The team has also investigated processing of the same tracking data measurements using the Orbit Determination Tool Kit (ODTK) software, which uses an extended Kalman filter and recursive smoother to estimate the orbit. The orbit determination results from each of these methods will be presented and we will discuss the advantages and disadvantages associated with using each method in the lunar Lissajous regions. Orbit determination accuracy is dependent on both the quality and quantity of tracking measurements, fidelity of the orbit force models, and the estimation techniques used. Prior to Lissajous operations, the team determined the appropriate quantity of tracking measurements that would be needed to meet the required orbit determination accuracies. Analysts used the Orbit Determination Error Analysis System (ODEAS) to perform covariance analyses using various tracking data schedules. From this analysis, it was determined that 3.5 hours of DSN TRK-2-34 range and Doppler tracking data every other day would suffice to meet the predictive orbit knowledge accuracies in the Lissajous region. The results of this analysis are presented. Both GTDS and ODTK have high-fidelity environmental orbit force models that allow for very accurate orbit estimation in the lunar Lissajous regime. These models include solar radiation pressure, Earth and Moon gravity models, third body gravitational effects from the Sun, and to a lesser extent third body gravitational effects from Jupiter, Venus, Saturn, and Mars. Increased position and velocity uncertainties following each maneuver, due to small execution performance errors, requires that several days of post-maneuver tracking data be processed to converge on an accurate post-maneuver orbit solution. The effects of maneuvers on orbit determination accuracy will be presented, including a comparison of the batch least squares technique to the extended Kalman filter/smoother technique. We will present the maneuver calibration results derived from processing post-maneuver tracking data. A dominant error in the orbit estimation process is the uncertainty in solar radiation pressure and the resultant force on the spacecraft. An estimation of this value can include many related factors, such as the uncertainty in spacecraft reflectivity and surface area which is a function of spacecraft orientation (spin-axis attitude), uncertainty in spacecraft wet mass, and potential seasonal variability due to the changing direction of the Sun line relative to the Earth-Moon Lissajous reference frame. In addition, each spacecraft occasionally enters into Earth or Moon penumbra or umbra and these shadow crossings reduche solar radiation force for several hours. The effects of these events on orbit determination accuracy will be presented. In order to plan for upcoming stationkeeping maneuvers, the maneuver planning team must take the current orbit estimate, propagate it forward to the planned maneuver time, and determine the optimal maneuver to maintain the Lissajous orbit for one or more revolutions. The propagation is performed using a Runge-Kutta 7/8 integrator and typically the position and velocity uncertainty increases with propagation time, increasing the overall uncertainty of the orbit state at the maneuver execution time. The effect of orbit knowledge uncertainty on stationkeeping operations will be presented.

Woodard, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2007

Large Solar-Rejection Filter

NASA utilized Image Intensified Video Cameras for ATV data acquisition from a jet flying at 12.8 km. Afterwards the video was digitized and then analyzed with a modified commercial software package, Image Systems Trackeye. Astrometric results were limited by saturation, plate scale, and imposed linear plate solution based on field reference stars. Time-dependent fragment angular trajectories, velocities, accelerations, and luminosities were derived in each video segment. It was evident that individual fragments behave differently. Photometric accuracy was insufficient to confidently assess correlations between luminosity and fragment spatial behavior (velocity, deceleration). Use of high resolution digital video cameras in future should remedy this shortcoming. A scenically accurate description of matter interpreted as a substance made up of corpuscular constituents was established during the course of the 19th century. In this description, atoms--the building blocks of the matter--form molecules. The properties of the molecules were described by chemistry or thermodynamics depending on what characteristics of the matter were investigated. In both theories, the molecules can dissociate to atoms when the kinetic energies of the atoms exceed the strength of the chemical bonds. The number of atoms is always preserved in a closed system. This is not true, however, when the matter takes up much higher energies at relativistic scales. New particles can be produced at the expense of the kinetic energy. The number of particles is no longer preserved. There are other conserved quantities, however, these quantities, the charge, baryon number, lepton number, are associated with particles that are considered elementary today. The properties and behavior of these elementary particles is the subject of Particle Physics or High Energy Physics. Practice Page: A crewmember touching a positively charged surface was thought to be galvanically isolated from the vehicle ground analogous to a bird on a high voltage power wire. Recent analysis confirms that positive floating potentials, ionospheric currents to the EVA suit, can be hazardous. The analysis is wrong in that the ionospheric plasma itself can close the circuit. Parametric analysis of very low voltage exposures (2 to 15 volts) could cause pain and/or involuntary muscle tetani or spinal cord shock. NASA worked with the Naval Health Research Center Detachment Directed Energy Bioeffects Laboratory to examine the affects electrical hazards could have on extravehicular activity using two models. The results of the two computational models were combined to predict areas of the body in which neurons of different diameters would be excited. They predicted that physiologically active current could be conducted across the crew member causing catastrophic hazards. Future work to analyze additional current paths was proposed. The FUSE spectrum of BB Dor, observed in a high state, is modeled with an accretion disk with a very low inclination (possibly lower than 10 degrees). Assuming an average WD mass of 0.8 solar mass leads to a distance of the order of approximately 650pc, consistent with the extremely low galactic reddening in its direction, and a mass accretion rate of 10 (exp -9) solar mass a year. The spectrum presents some broad and deep silicon and sulfur absorption lines, indicating that these elements are over-abundant: silicon is 3 times solar, and sulfur is 20 times solar. The FUSE spectrum of BB Dor, observed in a high state, is modeled with an accretion disk with a very low inclination (possibly lower than 10 degrees). Assuming an average WD mass of 0.8 solar mass leads to a distance of the order of approximately 650pc, consistent with the extremely low galactic reddening in its direction, and a mass accretion rate of 10 (exp -9) solar mass a year. The spectrum presents some broad and deep silicon and sulfur absorption lines, indicating that these elements are over-abundant: silicon is times solar, and sulfur is 20 times solar. From its previously observed optical emission lines, P831-57 (WD 0334 6400 or Ret 1 in A Catalog and Atlas of Cataclysmic Variables: Living Edition) has been suspected to contain an accretion disk associated with a companion star in orbit around a subdwarf star with a temperature T is greater than 21,000K. P831-57 has therefore been classified as a nova-like. However, our present observations show it to be a DA + dMe binary. The analysis of its Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) spectrum (continuum and lines) reveal an average mass white dwarf (Log(g) approximately equals 7.8 plus or minus 0.1)with a temperature T approximately equals 37,000 plus or minus 500K, an extremely low projected rotational velocity, and a distance of about 115 plus or minus 5pc. The photosphere contains C, N, Si, and S (at about 1% of solar abundances). The dMe star is seen as a flux excess in near-infrared photometry and appears to show occasional flaring of about one magnitude as seen in the Harvard plates. There is no evidence of periodic variability in the spectroscopic or photometric data. We find no evidence of a an accretion disk, instead we find evidence of wind accretion as the stellar carbon abundance (N(C)/N(H) = 2.5 x 10 (exp -6) is about ten times larger than predicted by radiative levitation for such a gravity and temperature. The power needs and solutions for the space exploration and lunar mobility program are discussed. Long term missions in space and on the lunar surface require high energy batteries. Rechargeable batteries for mobility systems and portable utility pallet are needed for successful exploration missions. Nanomaterial usage increases the energy density of the cells apart from increasing the power density. The symptoms and threats from acute mountain sickness (AMS) are discussed. The underlying assumptions concerning spacecraft atmosphere mean there is a potential risk to astronauts. The baseline worst case scenario is about 25% based on direct ascent to 8.0 psia with 32% O2. The practical mitigation approach is a staged depressurization scheme. Due to the uncertainty about potential AMS risk the flight surgeon should prepare, focused research should proceed, and current analytical efforts should continue. This slide presentation reviews the threat astronauts face from acute mountain sickness (AMS). The incidence of AMS is highly variable and the risk to astronauts is unclear. However, the potential risk is higher than current EAAs suggest and precautions should be implemented. Due to the uncertain nature of the risk flight surgeons should prepare, and focused research should proceed. Quasiparticle tunneling can be understood at low temperatures using a non-equilibrium kinetic theory. Low-temperature tunneling can be suppressed using existing techniques: island-lead gap engineering, lead cooling with SIN junctions, and quasiparticle traps. The slide presentation reviews the science goals and mission planning for the proposed Jupiter System Observer (JSO). The spacecraft would accommodate 9 instruments making the instrument payload more capable than any previously flown to Jupiter. The would-be mission includes study programs for Jupiter's satellites, interior, magnetosphere and atmosphere. The power needs and solutions for the space exploration and lunar mobility program are discussed. Long term missions in space and on the lunar surface require high energy batteries. Rechargeable batteries for mobility systems and portable utility pallet are needed for successful exploration missions. Nanomaterial usage increases the energy density of the cells apart from increasing the power density. This slide presentation reviews the power requirements for the space exploration and the lunar surface mobility programs. It includes information about the specifications for high energy batteries and the power requirements for lunar rovers,

Roberts, William↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Machine Learning Approach to Improve Air Traffic Management Initiatives

Collaborating closely with commercial air carriers and related organizations, the Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) regulates air traffic and ensures the safety and efficiency of air operations. Air traffic controllers make strategic decisions, such as delaying, rerouting, or canceling flights, partly based on guidance provided by the FAA’s Air TrafficControl System Command Center (ATCSCC). The guidance includes, among other things, control measures known asTraffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) designed to enhance safety and improve operational efficiency. TMIs play a crucial role in managing the demand and capacity within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). Two major TMIs that are routinely used (primarily to mitigate the adverse effects of bad weather) are Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) andGround Stops (GSs). In a GDP, flights destined for airports facing thunderstorm activity experience delays at their origin airports. This proactive approach minimizes the risk of routing aircraft through hazardous weather conditions and also replaces (fuel burning) airborne delays with ground delays. In a GS, a temporary restriction is imposed on the departure or arrival of aircraft at a specific airport or within a designated airspace. Although other TMIs (e.g., miles-in-trail) are also implemented as part of (air) traffic flow management in the NAS, the focus of this work is on GDPs and GSs. Since TMIs, by design, lead to flight delays or cancellations, it is crucial to put in place the right set of parameters(e.g., scope and duration of the GDP). For example, when the end time of a GDP extends beyond what is necessary, it imposes unnecessary delays on departing flights. This situation could occur as a result of inaccurate prediction of the(required) duration of the GDP based on the weather forecast. On the other hand, if a GDP ends prematurely before the underlying capacity constraints are resolved at the destination airport, it may result in airborne holding. The delicate balance lies in matching the termination of the GDP precisely with the resolution of capacity constraints, avoiding both the imposition of unnecessary ground delays and the need for airborne holding due to premature program termination.Failing to specify the right parameters for TMIs also leads to flight delays, creating a significant obstacle in managing the increasing traffic volumes causing increased work load for the controllers. To address this issue, we propose the integration of Machine Learning (ML) models in the traffic flow management(TFM) pipeline. In current operations, decisions are made by human experts based on extensive training, historical patterns, available traffic and weather data. Since we have an abundance of data from past events that tell us the likely impact of various TMIs, by ingesting historical data, properly trained ML models can offer valuable insights and aid human decision-making. With the FAA increasingly exploring advanced analytics, ML emerges as a focal point for enhancing TFM within the National Airspace System (NAS). As a first step, this study aims to provide traffic controllers with decision-making support for the issuance and adjustment of TMIs. Data analytics and machine learning have been previously employed to address some of the challenges associated with TMIs. Numerous studies have concentrated on various facets of TMI issuance, exploring factors influencing TMI parameters, including arrival rate, airport capacity, and delay prediction. For example, using weather forecasts, several statistical methods were used to produce probabilistic capacity profiles which in conjunction with deterministic models provided insights into the GDP planning process [1–4]. The downside of using deterministic models is that they rely on fixed inputs and predetermined rules, which lack the ability to account for the inherent uncertainty and variability present in real-world scenarios. In a separate series of studies, researchers aimed to predict the occurrences of GDPs and GSs. The majority of these studies utilized various supervised learning methods, including Decision Trees, Naive Bayes, Support VectorMachines, and Random Forests to analyze the influence of weather conditions and arrival demand on TMI incidents[5–8]. However, these studies primarily focused on predicting the incidence of TMIs without explicitly addressing the scope of TMIs, including their duration and their geographical coverage. Furthermore, the emphasis of these studies was largely on GDPs, given their higher frequency and longer duration when compared to GSs. A limited number of studies focused on predicting the parameters of TMIs, specifically addressing their duration and extent. In one such study focusing on optimizing the TMI parameters at San Francisco International Airport (SFO),the authors utilized a probabilistic forecast of fog [9]. They simulated various capacity scenarios based on the (fog)burn-off forecasts, selecting GDP parameters that minimized airborne and overall ground delays. However, this approach exclusively emphasizes stratus (fog) burn-off as the primary determinant of GDP and GS, neglecting other influential factors like severe weather events, runway closures, lower capacity than traffic demand, and other important variables. Given the complexity of predicting the TMI and determining its scope, we seek a more holistic approach. We aim to consider all significant factors that could impact TMIs and their parameters. What sets this research apart is the fusion of all data sources relevant to the issuance and adjustment of TMIs and it represents the first comprehensive attempt to optimize TMIs in this manner. Since this comprehensive solution involves various aspects, we break down the problem into smaller components and input all parameters into a unified model called the “TMI Adjuster”. Figure 1 shows the overall framework and the list of datasets used in each model. The objective of the TMI Adjuster module is to deliver reliable, consistent and expedited recommendations for the progression, adjustment, and termination of TMIs. The ML solution entails developing a pipeline capable of predicting the necessity of a TMI (e.g., GS or GDP) along with its various parameters. For example, in the case of a GS, this includes the scope of the GS either in terms of distance from the destination airport or based on pre-defined airspace sectors. Here, scope refers to those regions and departing airports that are subject to the GS. In this paper, we concentrate on the issuance of GSs in the three major airports in the New York area — LaGuardia(LGA), John F. Kennedy International (JFK), and Newark Liberty International (EWR). We fuse traffic, weather and other relevant aviation data from years 2017 to 2019 to train and validate the ML models. In particular, we use the following datasets: •Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF): meteorological forecasts specific to each airport, issued four times a day, covering predefined time periods. •TMI data: includes all GSs and GDPs along with their respective parameters. •Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM): includes traffic related data such as aircraft delays, arrival, and departure rates. •Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs): utilized to extract runway closure data and manage interdependencies between terminals in close proximity. •Flight cancellation data •Airspace Flow Programs (AFP): includes information on flight airborne holdings caused by TMIs. The data preprocessing entails transforming ASPM, TMI, AFP, NOTAMs, and weather data into an hourly format and consolidating all datasets by merging them based on date and time as the primary key. The TMI Adjuster framework comprises two parallel models: one dedicated to GS and a second model focused on GDP. As previously mentioned, our specific focus is on the GS model as a multi-classification problem. In this framework, each data point of the GS model input summarizes ten hours of data. Specifically, the data loader for the GS model generates the input and output of the model as follows: at a given time step, the input includes the actual traffic, weather, and TMI data from the two-hour window before the time step, alongside the weather forecast and scheduled traffic for the next 8 hours starting from the time step. Based on this information, the output of the GS model for each time interval consists of three dimensions. The first dimension represents a binary decision on whether there should be a GS in place for the next hour or not. The second dimension is related to the scope of the GS in the United States, and the third dimension is related to the scope of the GS in Canada (i.e., to determine if the GS impacts airports in Canada).One of the challenges with TMI modeling is the sparsity of TMI events, particularly regarding its scope. To address this challenge in the scope of the GS model output, we implement grouping. The GS scope for the US region is defined based on a list of centers that should be included when the GS is in place. With 20 centers in the US, we utilized historical data to group them into 4 categories. In particular, we summarized our historical data in a graph format where nodes represent centers, and link weights are defined based on the co-occurrence of centers in the scope parameter ofTMIs. By identified strongly connected components in this graph, we were able to partition the centers into four groups. We consider two model structures for the GS Model. Firstly, a hierarchical classification model [10], where the human decision-making for a GS is of hierarchical nature. The decision-maker first decides whether there is a need fora GS, and if the answer is yes, determines the scope. A hierarchical classification model organizes the problem into a class hierarchy, typically a tree or a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) structure, and considers the dependency of the decision in the previous step to the next component [10]. Here, we employ the local classifier per level approach, which involves training one multi-class classifier for each level of the class hierarchy. The second structure is the independent structure. In this setting, as the name suggests, we do not consider the dependency of the decisions in the different dimensions of the output of the model. Instead, for each dimension, we train a multi-class classifier independently. Table 1 summarizes GS model statistics for training, validation and testing. The table documents the effect of limiting data to the time steps when there was actually a TMI in place or when a TMI had just terminated. This resulted in a more balanced distribution of the GS class(GS positive class)versus “No GS”(GS negative class), which might help the training process. While JFK and LGA follow very similar distributions, with 40% and 42% GS positive class respectively, EWR has proportionally fewer GS incidents at 28%. Our subsequent phase involves evaluating the performance of both hierarchical structure and independent structure using different state-of-the-art multi-class classifier models such as Random Forest, Decision Trees, K-nearest Neighbors, and Logistic Regression and forecast the duration and scope of the GSs.

Farzan Masrour Shalmani↗