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At least 451 records · Page 25

The Impact of Stochastic Perturbations in Physics Variables for Predicting Surface Solar Irradiance

We present a probabilistic framework tailored for solar energy applications referred to as the Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). WRF-Solar EPS has been developed by introducing stochastic perturbations into the most relevant physical variables for solar irradiance predictions. In this study, we comprehensively discuss the impact of the stochastic perturbations of WRF-Solar EPS on solar irradiance forecasting compared to a deterministic WRF-Solar prediction (WRF-Solar DET), a stochastic ensemble using the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS), and a WRF-Solar multi-physics ensemble (WRF-Solar PHYS). The performances of the four forecasts are evaluated using irradiance retrievals from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) over the contiguous United States. We focus on the predictability of the day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts during the year of 2018. The results show that the ensemble forecasts improve the quality of the forecasts, compared to the deterministic prediction system, by accounting for the uncertainty derived by the ensemble members. However, the three ensemble systems are under-dispersive, producing unreliable and overconfident forecasts due to a lack of calibration. In particular, WRF-Solar EPS produces less optically thick clouds than the other forecasts, which explains the larger positive bias in WRF-Solar EPS (31.7 W/m 2 ) than in the other models (22.7–23.6 W/m 2 ). This study confirms that the WRF-Solar EPS reduced the forecast error by 7.5% in terms of the mean absolute error (MAE) compared to WRF-Solar DET, and provides in-depth comparisons of forecast abilities with the conventional scientific probabilistic approaches (i.e., SKEBS and a multi-physics ensemble). Guidelines for improving the performance of WRF-Solar EPS in the future are provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Development of user guidelines for ECAS display design. Volume 2: Tasks 9 and 10

Lay-oriented speakers aids, articles, a booklet, and a press kit were developed to inform the press and the general public with background information on the space transportation system, Spacelab, and Spacelab 1 experiments. Educational materials relating to solar-terrestrial physics and its potential benefits to mankind were also written. A basic network for distributing audiovisual and printed materials to regional secondary schools and universities was developed. Suggested scripts to be used with visual aids describing materials science and technology and astronomy and solar physics are presented.

Bathurst, D. B.↗

Electron acceleration in impulsive solar flares

Physical parameters relevant to the acceleration and propagation of energetic electrons during the impulsive phase of a solar flare are studied in hard X-ray, microwave and both type III and decimetric radio bursts associated with the December 4, 1978 solar flare. A one-to-one association between single type III bursts and hard X-ray peaks is established, along with a burst delay with respect to the peaks of 0.5 sec. The observed increase of the high frequency cutoff of the metric type III bursts during the impulsive phase is examined in terms of the decreasing altitude of the electron acceleration/injection region, increasing electron spectrum hardness, and decreasing acceleration time. A pulsating decimetric continuum was found to be present during and before the impulsive phase whose high frequency cutoff also systematically increased during the rise of the impulsive phase.

Kane, S. R.↗

Investigation of Coronal Large Scale Structures Utilizing Spartan 201 Data

Two telescopes aboard Spartan 201, a small satellite has been launched from the Space Shuttles, on April 8th, 1993, September 8th, 1994, September 7th, 1995 and November 20th, 1997. The main objective of the mission was to answer some of the most fundamental unanswered questions of solar physics-What accelerates the solar wind and what heats the corona? The two telescopes are 1) Ultraviolet Coronal Spectrometer (UVCS) provided by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory which uses ultraviolet emissions from neutral hydrogen and ions in the corona to determine velocities of the coronal plasma within the solar wind source region, and the temperature and density distributions of protons and 2) White Light Coronagraph (WLC) provided by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center which measures visible light to determine the density distribution of coronal electrons within the same region. The PI has had the primary responsibility in the development and application of computer codes necessary for scientific data analysis activities, end instrument calibration for the white-light coronagraph for the entire Spartan mission. The PI was responsible for the science output from the WLC instrument. PI has also been involved in the investigation of coronal density distributions in large-scale structures by use of numerical models which are (mathematically) sufficient to reproduce the details of the observed brightness and polarized brightness distributions found in SPARTAN 201 data.

Guhathakurta, Madhulika↗

Investigation of Solar Wind Correlations and Solar Wind Modifications Near Earth by Multi-Spacecraft Observations: IMP 8, WIND and INTERBALL-1

The foundation of this Project is use of the opportunity available during the ISTP (International Solar-Terrestrial Physics) era to compare solar wind measurements obtained simultaneously by three spacecraft - IMP 8, WIND and INTERBALL-1 at wide-separated points. Using these data allows us to study three important topics: (1) the size and dynamics of near-Earth mid-scale (with dimension about 1-10 million km) and small-scale (with dimension about 10-100 thousand km) solar wind structures; (2) the reliability of the common assumption that solar wind conditions at the upstream Lagrangian (L1) point accurately predict the conditions affecting Earth's magnetosphere; (3) modification of the solar wind plasma and magnetic field in the regions near the Earth magnetosphere, the foreshock and the magnetosheath. Our Project was dedicated to these problems. Our research has made substantial contributions to the field and has lead others to undertake similar work.

Paularena, Karolen I.↗

Physical Oceanography in the Solar System and Beyond

A key controller of a planet’s rotational evolution, and hence habitability, is tidal dissipation, which on Earth occurs primarily in the oceans. As the discovery of habitable exoplanets is a primary objective of exoplanet research, it is imperative that we understand how “exo-oceans” behave. Despite this importance, little research has investigated the physical oceanography of worlds other than Earth. This oversight has occurred even though the Earth science community has studied tidal flows in Earth’s oceans for over a century and developed sophisticated models that exquisitely match satellite altimetry data, e.g. Here, we present a) models of tidal effects on exoplanets to motivate the problem, b) the application of a physical oceanography model to a putative ancient Venus ocean, and c) the application of that model to an ensemble of “alternative Earths” with a range of continental configurations and seafloor properties. We find that oceanic tidal dissipation can span 5 orders of magnitude, revealing that simulating exo-oceans with Earth science tools will provide fundamental insight into exoplanet evolution and habitability

Physical Oceanography↗

Physics of the inner heliosphere 1-10R sub O plasma diagnostics and models

The physics of solar wind flow in the acceleration region and impulsive phenomena in the solar corona is studied. The study of magnetohydrodynamic wave propagation in the corona and the solutions for steady state and time dependent solar wind equations gives insights concerning the physics of the solar wind acceleration region, plasma heating and plasma acceleration processes and the formation of shocks. Also studied is the development of techniques for placing constraints on the mechanisms responsible for coronal heating.

Withbroe, G. L.↗

The handling of data in solar-terrestrial and in planetary physics

The evolution of data handling systems for solar-terrestrial and planetary physics applications is discussed. The main elements of data management systems for scientific satellites are described, including: command and control; data transmission; prioritization of data users; and data reduction and analysis. The design approaches incorporated into the data management systems of the Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP), International Sun Earth Explorer (ISEE), and the Orbiting Geophysical Observatory, (OGO) spacecraft, are discussed. Emphasis is given to classical, centralized, and hybrid system designs. The report of the Committee on Data Management and Computation (CODMAC) concerning concepts for new data management systems is briefly summarized.

Vette, J. I.↗

The Living With a Star Program and International Collaboration

International cooperation has long been a vital element in the scientific investigation of solar variability and its impact on Earth and the space environment. Recently a new international cooperative initiative in solar-terrestrial physics has been established by the major space agencies of the world, called the International Living With a Star (ILWS) program. ILWS is a follow-on to the highly successful International Solar Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) program, which derived its success from the ,cooperation of a number of international partners. ISTP, with its steady flow of discoveries and new knowledge in solar-terrestrial physics, has laid the foundation for the coordinated study of the Sun-Earth system as a connected stellar-planetary system and as humanity's home. The first step in establishing ILWS was taken in the fall of 2000 when funding was approved for the NASA's LWS program whose goal is to "develop the scientific understanding necessary to effectively address those aspects of the connected Sun-Earth system that directly affect life and society".

Thompson, Barbara J.↗

Physical Properties of the Solar Atmosphere Derived from Comparison of Spectro-Polarimetric SDO/HMI Observables with 3D Radiative MHD Simulations

In this study, we compare the SDO/HMI line-of-sight observables (magnetic field, velocity, continuum intensity, and line depth) with the related physical properties for several dynamo simulation runs performed using the "StellarBox" 3D Radiative MHD code. The modeling of the Fe I 6173 A Stokes profiles is performed using the SPINOR radiative transfer code in the LTE approximation. The reproduced SDO/HMI line-of-sight pipeline is applied to the modeled spectra, and the observables are synthesized with high (numerical) and SDO/HMI (instrumental) resolutions. Correlations between the observables and the physical properties at various heights in the atmosphere are studied for a set of view angles (0, 30, 45, 60, 70, and 80 degrees away from the solar disk center). It is found that the SDO/HMI magnetic field and velocity measurements are unambiguously correlated with physical parameters at certain heights of the solar atmosphere. These heights increase from about 100 km above the photosphere for the disk center case to 300-600 km above the photosphere for the 80-degree case. The heights are found to be slightly lower in regions where stronger magnetic fields are found. The comparison of the photospheric magnetic flux and integrated continuum intensity derived from the SDO/HMI observables and high-resolution observations and spectra is discussed. The results of our study improve physics-based interpretations of the SDO/HMI observables and provide a better understanding of the physical properties of the solar atmosphere.

SMD↗

Coronal and chromospheric physics

The Solar Maximum Mission support program is mentioned along with investigations of the solar corona, prominences, and chromosphere. The solar limb was studied using far infrared and submillimeter photometry. Stokes profiles obtained from sunspot observations were examined with a polarimetric technique.

Hall, D. N. B.↗

Acceleration of the solar wind

Different approaches to understanding the physics of solar wind acceleration are reviewed. Particular attention is given to fundamental reasons for a supersonic wind concept; the concept of thermal conduction as the primary energy transport mechanism in the solar wind; coronal holes as the source of wind and alternative acceleration mechanisms; and the state of closure of theory and observation.

Barnes, Aaron↗

The abundance and relative volatility of refractory trace elements in Allende Ca,Al-rich inclusions - Implications for chemical and physical processes in the solar nebula

The relative volatilities of lithophile refractory trace elements (LRTE) were determined using calculated 50-percent condensation temperatures. Then, the refractory trace-element abundances were measured in about 100 Allende inclusions. The abundance patterns found in Allende Ca,Al-rich inclusions (CAIs) and ultrarefractory inclusions were used to empirically modify the calculated LRTE volatility sequence. In addition, the importance of crystal-chemical effects, diffusion constraints, and grain transport for the origin of the trace-element chemistry of Allende CAIs (which have important implications for chemical and physical processes in the solar nebula) is discussed.

Kornacki, Alan S.↗

Update of the ISTP Solar Maximum Mission: ISTP Project Scientist for Theory and Ground-Based Observations

Building upon the numerous successes of the pre-solar maximum International Solar Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) mission, the ISTP Solar Maximum Mission is expected to produce new insights into global flow of energy, momentum, and mass, from the Sun, through the heliosphere, into the magnetosphere and to their final deposition in the terrestrial upper atmosphere/ionosphere system. Of particular interest is the determination of the geo-effectiveness of solar events, principally Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). Given the expected increased frequency and strength of CMEs during the Solar Maximum period, a major advance in our understanding of nature of the coupling of CMEs to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere system is expected. The roles during this time of the various ISTP assets will be discussed. These assets will include the SOHO, Wind, Polar, and Geotail spacecraft, the ground-based observing networks and the theory tools.

Curtis, Steve↗

ATLAS-SOHO: Satellite Arrival and Uncrating, Uncrating of the Propulsion Unit and Electric Module

The SOHO satellite, part of the International Solar-Terrestrial Physics Program (ISTP), is a solar observatory designed to study the structure, chemical composition, and dynamics of the solar interior. It will also observe the structure (density, temperature and velocity fields), dynamics and composition of the outer solar atmosphere, and the solar wind and its relation to the solar atmosphere. The spacecraft was launched on December 2, 1995. This video shows the unloading of the satellite from the transport plane at the Kennedy Space Station and the lowering to an awaiting flatbed truck. The video also shows the uncrating of the satellite, the propulsion unit and the electric module in a clean room.

Source record↗

Physical conditions in the solar corona during flarelike events

Soft X-ray images of the sun obtained with the S-056 telescope aboard Skylab are used to investigate physical conditions in the X-ray-emitting coronal plasma during flarelike events. Temporal and spatial variations in the density and temperature of the main X-ray source during a flare are determined along with the total radiative energy emitted by an observed loop system. Models for heat sources and energy balance are analyzed, radiative as well as conductive energy losses are computed, and an attempt is made to develop a self-consistent model of the observed X-ray event. It is concluded that: (1) loop tips constitute the source of the maximum X-ray flux; (2) conductive losses exceed radiative losses by several orders of magnitude; (3) energy (and possibly new matter) is added at loop tips; and (4) the most intense X-ray structures are located in areas where the magnetic field has a small radius of curvature and the axis of a loop sequence changes direction.

Vorpahl, J. A.↗

Constraints on fifth forces and ultralight dark matter from OSIRIS-REx target asteroid Bennu

It is important to test the possible existence of fifth forces, as ultralight bosons that would mediate these are predicted to exist in several well-motivated extensions of the Standard Model. Recent work indicated asteroids as promising probes, but applications to real data are lacking so far. Here we use the OSIRIS-REx mission and ground-based tracking data for the asteroid Bennu to derive constraints on fifth forces. Our limits are strongest for mediator masses m ~ (10 -18 -10 -17 ) eV, where we currently achieve the tightest bounds. These can be translated to a wide class of models leading to Yukawa-type fifth forces, and we demonstrate how they apply to U(1) B dark photons and baryon-coupled scalars. Our results demonstrate the potential of asteroid tracking in probing well-motivated extensions of the Standard Model and ultralight bosons near the fuzzy dark matter range.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗