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Austin Sustainable and Holistic Integration of Energy Storage and Solar PV [Austin SHINES]. Final Report, Version 2

The Austin SHINES project and solution is a software management platform, for an electric grid with a high penetration of dispersed photovoltaic (PV) solar generation sites, which maintains the traditional power quality and reliability associated with grid service. This project developed and deployed the platform as a Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS), engaging multiple advanced controls, to evaluate operation and optimization of a fleet of diverse DER assets, installed at several locations among Austin Energy’s customers and distribution system. The project also produced a methodology to create a replicable DERMS template, adaptable to other regions and market structures. Last, Austin SHINES aimed to demonstrate the solution’s methodology would enable the DER grid ecosystem to serve load at a technical cost (System Levelized Cost of Electricity, or System LCOE) of less than the U.S. Department of Energy SHINES program metric of $0.14/kWh, in a defined boundary, while enabling a high penetration of distributed PV. Research was categorized in 6 reports (Final Deliverables = FD) listed below, with titles and descriptions indicating which area of understanding was investigated: FD-1: System Levelized Cost of Electricity (System LCOE) Methodology The creation and use of the System LCOE to Serve Load metric that encompasses the holistic, system-level costs and benefits of all resources, and enables them to be evaluated based on their ability to support an efficient and low-cost integrated grid ecosystem. FD-2: Software Platform Product Description The creation of new DER control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform that enable DER's to maximize their benefit within a grid, that is capable of serving load enabling a high penetration of distributed PV generation. FD-3: Optimal Design Methodology Optimal design methodologies for individual DER installations that enable utilities to determine the optimal combinations and sizing for individual DER sites. FD-4: Austin SHINES Ownership and Operation Models for DER System Performance A comparison of multiple DER aggregation and ownership methodologies including direct utility control, third-party aggregator, and autonomous. FD-5: Economic Modeling & Optimization A comparison of multiple DER technology mixes and configurations within the distribution system, providing insight into an optimal blend of technologies that best enable the distribution system to serve load at the lowest cost at high penetrations of solar. FD-6: Fielded Assets Deployed DER assets within the Austin Energy SHINES circuits. Austin SHINES provided an opening for state-of-the-art technology products to be deployed, providing a rich opportunity for improving how each of the products perform as stand-alone products, and in concert with other complementary products. The Austin SHINES project comprised of two key metrics for System LCOE: SystemLCOE_SHINES<$0.14/kWh Modeled ΔSystemLCOE_SHINES/ΔSystemLCOE_Base≥20% at same solar penetration The System LCOE calculation uses the costs of the utility-owned infrastructure as it exists today, the cost of the DERs that exist in the system today, and the cost of the purchase of energy from ERCOT wholesale markets over the course of the calendar year. All costs are on an annualized basis. The capital and operating costs are derived from the rate case, which produces a yearly cost. The net cost of energy and services imported to the system is integrated over the test year, as is the load served and solar penetration. The first metric was easily achieved by every scenario considered. The goal was set when the Department of Energy’s SHINES Funding Opportunity Announcement was written in 2015 and was a more difficult target at the time. Due mostly to rapidly declining costs for DERs and the significant decrease in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy market prices, which results in lower net cost of energy purchases, the System LCOE is well below this target for all scenarios considered. A fleet of DERs can assume different mixtures, each of which serves the load at a different LCOE. The optimal mixture of DERs serves load at the smallest System LCOE. The second metric (hereinafter %delta metric) asks that the holistic DERMS controls reduce the incremental cost above the baseline of going to a high solar penetration future by at least 20% as compared to the case of a DER deployment with no sophisticated controls (autonomous). Many comparison sets were created throughout this project. Physical technology was installed for informing utility engineering and testing several types of operational control schemes, through the DERMS. The types of operational control which were compared for valuation of the System LCOE Metric were: Holistic control = using the full suite of the DERMS platform to decide and optimize how/why the systems operate depending on weather, market, and reliability signal input. Autonomous control = a local mode at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only No control = the baseline for comparing value against the other two types of control The types of ownership control included: Direct Utility control = the utility dispatches a signal to each asset Third-Party Aggregator = a third party aggregates a fleet of assets and the utility dispatches one signal for all Autonomous = a local mode is set for operation at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only The types of control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform included: Utility Peak Load Reduction = Lower transmission cost obligation Day-Ahead Energy Arbitrage = Realize economic value through price differential Real-Time Price Dispatch = Realize economic value from real-time price spikes Voltage support = Reduce losses and increase solar generation Distribution Congestion Management = Increase local grid reliability Demand Charge Reduction = Lower customer bills and realize system benefit The fielded assets deployed for the project were: Utility Scale Kingsbery Energy Storage System: 1.5 MW / 3 MWh Li-Ion battery storage Mueller Energy Storage System: 1.75 MW / 3.2 MWh Li-Ion battery storage, 7 Energy Storage Units (250 kW each) La Loma Community Solar: 2.6 MW Commercial Scale Aggregated storage installations at 3 sites, with existing solar (300+ kW): One 18 kW / 36 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Two 72 kW / 144 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Residential Scale Aggregated storage installations: -Six stationary battery storage systems (10 kWh each) at homes with existing solar -One Electric Vehicle installed as Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Utility-Controlled Solar via Smart Inverters at 12 homes Autonomously-Controlled Smart Inverters at 6 homes Over the course of the project, Austin SHINES undertook installing more than 3 MW of distributed battery energy storage, smart PV inverters, a DER control platform, and other enabling technologies utilizing customer and utility locations and aggregation models. All of these resources were to be integrated and optimized at the utility level. DER assets and control methodologies were designed to achieve a credible pathway to a System LCOE for energy delivered to load of $0.14//kWh or less by 2020, while maximizing distributed solar generation and maintaining acceptable standards of power quality. The project also established a template for other regions to follow, to maximize the adoption of distributed solar PV in support of an economic and efficient grid. In total, the Austin SHINES project added value to the DER subject area in each layer of integration. From utility, to commercial to residential scales, the sheer hierarchy of communication and coordination was a significant accomplishment in addition to learnings from what these communications revealed was unique to each. Economically, the most effective method demonstrated was the criticality of planning phases. Contingencies and multiple projection scenarios helped guide the project to deploy optimal design as close as feasible, in real world conditions. The project and reports will serve public benefit by outlining specific areas of DER strategy and installation where many stakeholders and needs can be addressed with improved efficiency. Overall, communities and utilities should use the results to guide the increasing options available for powering the grid with DER, renewables, and carbon considerate energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Knowledge-Based Aircraft Automation: Managers Guide on the use of Artificial Intelligence for Aircraft Automation and Verification and Validation Approach for a Neural-Based Flight Controller

The ultimate goal of this report was to integrate the powerful tools of artificial intelligence into the traditional process of software development. To maintain the US aerospace competitive advantage, traditional aerospace and software engineers need to more easily incorporate the technology of artificial intelligence into the advanced aerospace systems being designed today. The future goal was to transition artificial intelligence from an emerging technology to a standard technology that is considered early in the life cycle process to develop state-of-the-art aircraft automation systems. This report addressed the future goal in two ways. First, it provided a matrix that identified typical aircraft automation applications conducive to various artificial intelligence methods. The purpose of this matrix was to provide top-level guidance to managers contemplating the possible use of artificial intelligence in the development of aircraft automation. Second, the report provided a methodology to formally evaluate neural networks as part of the traditional process of software development. The matrix was developed by organizing the discipline of artificial intelligence into the following six methods: logical, object representation-based, distributed, uncertainty management, temporal and neurocomputing. Next, a study of existing aircraft automation applications that have been conducive to artificial intelligence implementation resulted in the following five categories: pilot-vehicle interface, system status and diagnosis, situation assessment, automatic flight planning, and aircraft flight control. The resulting matrix provided management guidance to understand artificial intelligence as it applied to aircraft automation. The approach taken to develop a methodology to formally evaluate neural networks as part of the software engineering life cycle was to start with the existing software quality assurance standards and to change these standards to include neural network development. The changes were to include evaluation tools that can be applied to neural networks at each phase of the software engineering life cycle. The result was a formal evaluation approach to increase the product quality of systems that use neural networks for their implementation.

Broderick, Ron↗

Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores. Using a prioritization of measures from the decision-maker, trade-offs between the scores are used to rank order the available set of RTOS candidates.

Morris, A. Terry↗

Heliostat Aiming Strategies for Arbitrary Flux Profiles for High Temperature Gas-Based Receivers

High temperature gas-based receivers are seen as one potential path toward achieving the next generation of concentrated solar power tower systems. A key challenge associated with high temperature, high pressure heat transfer fluids is the lifetime of receiver containment materials. Achieving the desired lifetime while also designing an efficient receiver requires implementation of unique flux profiles, tailored to place high fluxes at cold fluid injection points. An aimpoint selection methodology was developed in the present study to allow user-defined flux profiles to be prescribed for a receiver. The methodology was implemented in NREL's open-source software SolarPILOT, modifying the existing “image size priority” aimpoint strategy. A case study for a tubular gas-based receiver is presented, examining the effect of various parameters on the ability to replicate the desired flux profile.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Tycho: Realistically Simulating Exoplanets within Stellar Clusters. I. Improving the Monte Carlo Approach

To fully understand the diverse population of exoplanets, we must study their early lives within open clusters, the birthplace of most stars with masses >0.5M {sub ⊙} (including those currently in the field). Indeed, when we observe planets within clustered environments, we notice highly eccentric and odd systems that suggest the importance of dynamical pathways created by interactions with additional bodies (as in the case of HD 285507b). However, it has proven difficult to investigate these effects, as many current numerical solvers for the multi-scale N-body problem are simplified and limited in scope. To remedy this, we aim to create a physically complete computational solution to explore the role of stellar close encounters and interplanetary interactions in producing the observed exoplanet populations for both open cluster stars and field stars. We present a new code, Tycho, which employs a variety of different computational techniques, including multiple N-body integration methods, close encounter handling, modified Monte Carlo scattering experiments, and a variety of empirically informed initial conditions. We discuss the methodology in detail, and its implementation within the AMUSE software framework. Approximately 1% of our systems are promptly disrupted by star-star encounters contributing to the rogue planets occurrence rate. Additionally, we find that close encounters which that perturb long-period planets lead to 38.3% of solar-system-like planetary systems becoming long-term unstable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SAGA: A project to automate the management of software production systems

The project to automate the management of software production systems is described. The SAGA system is a software environment that is designed to support most of the software development activities that occur in a software lifecycle. The system can be configured to support specific software development applications using given programming languages, tools, and methodologies. Meta-tools are provided to ease configuration. Several major components of the SAGA system are completed to prototype form. The construction methods are described.

Campbell, R. H.↗

A computer-aided approach to nonlinear control systhesis

The major objective of this project is to develop a computer-aided approach to nonlinear stability analysis and nonlinear control system design. This goal is to be obtained by refining the describing function method as a synthesis tool for nonlinear control design. The interim report outlines the approach by this study to meet these goals including an introduction to the INteractive Controls Analysis (INCA) program which was instrumental in meeting these study objectives. A single-input describing function (SIDF) design methodology was developed in this study; coupled with the software constructed in this study, the results of this project provide a comprehensive tool for design and integration of nonlinear control systems.

Wie, Bong↗

Software-Design-Analyzer System

CRISP-90 software-design-analyzer system, update of CRISP-80, is set of computer programs constituting software tool for design and documentation of other software and supporting top-down, hierarchical, modular, structured methodologies for design and programming. Written in Microsoft QuickBasic.

Tausworthe, Robert C.↗

Efficient Construction of Discrete Adjoint Operators on Unstructured Grids Using Complex Variables

A methodology is developed and implemented to mitigate the lengthy software development cycle typically associated with constructing a discrete adjoint solver for aerodynamic simulations. The approach is based on a complex-variable formulation that enables straightforward differentiation of complicated real-valued functions. An automated scripting process is used to create the complex-variable form of the set of discrete equations. An efficient method for assembling the residual and cost function linearizations is developed. The accuracy of the implementation is verified through comparisons with a discrete direct method as well as a previously developed handcoded discrete adjoint approach. Comparisons are also shown for a large-scale configuration to establish the computational efficiency of the present scheme. To ultimately demonstrate the power of the approach, the implementation is extended to high temperature gas flows in chemical nonequilibrium. Finally, several fruitful research and development avenues enabled by the current work are suggested.

Nielsen, Eric J.↗

Efficient Construction of Discrete Adjoint Operators on Unstructured Grids by Using Complex Variables

A methodology is developed and implemented to mitigate the lengthy software development cycle typically associated with constructing a discrete adjoint solver for aerodynamic simulations. The approach is based on a complex-variable formulation that enables straightforward differentiation of complicated real-valued functions. An automated scripting process is used to create the complex-variable form of the set of discrete equations. An efficient method for assembling the residual and cost function linearizations is developed. The accuracy of the implementation is verified through comparisons with a discrete direct method as well as a previously developed handcoded discrete adjoint approach. Comparisons are also shown for a large-scale configuration to establish the computational efficiency of the present scheme. To ultimately demonstrate the power of the approach, the implementation is extended to high temperature gas flows in chemical nonequilibrium. Finally, several fruitful research and development avenues enabled by the current work are suggested.

Nielsen, Eric J.↗

Using Dissimilarity Metrics to Identify Interesting Designs

A computer program helps to blend the power of automated-search software, which is able to generate large numbers of design solutions, with the insight of expert designers, who are able to identify preferred designs but do not have time to examine all the solutions. From among the many automated solutions to a given design problem, the program selects a smaller number of solutions that are worthy of scrutiny by the experts in the sense that they are sufficiently dissimilar from each other. The program makes the selection in an interactive process that involves a sequence of data-mining steps interspersed with visual displays of results of these steps to the experts. At crucial points between steps, the experts provide directives to guide the process. The program uses heuristic search techniques to identify nearly optimal design solutions and uses dissimilarity metrics defined by the experts to characterize the degree to which solutions are interestingly different. The search, data-mining, and visualization features of the program were derived from previously developed risk-management software used to support a risk-centric design methodology

Feather, Martin↗

VIIRS Thermal Emissive Bands L1B Calibration Uncertainty

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) is a key instrument on-board the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) spacecraft. The S-NPP launched in October 2011 and it has been collecting valuable Earth science data with VIIRS and four other instruments for more than five years. The VIIRS Characterization Support Team (VCST) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPS) is designed to support the VIIRS sensor pre-launch geometric and radiometric characterization and to access on-orbit long-term Level-1B (L1B) calibration and performance. This paper reviews the VIIRS thermal emissive bands (TEB), covering wavelengths from 3.7 to 12.0 μm, L1B radiometric calibration algorithms and presents the calibration uncertainty methodology which will be implanted in the L1B processing software. Discussions will be focused on the key uncertainty parameters and the application in L1B.

S-NPP VIIRS TEB Uncertainty↗

Turbo FRMAC Implemetation of IAEA Radiological Assessment Methodologies for Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies.

This report documents the findings of an assessment of the Turbo FRMAC software's ability to implement International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) guidance for calculating Operational Intervention Levels (OIL) 1 & 2 for nuclear and radiological emergencies. The IAEA OIL and U.S. Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center (FRMAC) Derived Response Level methodology and implementation in respective tools were compared, as demonstrated through benchmarking activities for a nuclear power plant source term and potential radionuclides of concern for radiological dispersal devices. This comparison revealed some shortcomings in Turbo FRMACs ability to perform IAEA OIL calculations and resulted in recommended software modifications to be considered for future development.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Lessons Learned from Astrobee Operations on the International Space Station

Since its launch in 2019, NASA has been operating three Astrobee free-flying robots providing an autonomous and adaptable research platform aboard the International Space Station (ISS). These robots have not only facilitated a myriad of national and international research endeavors in microgravity but have also served as a STEM outreach platform for student competitions aboard the ISS. Amidst its extensive operational tenure, spanning over five years and exceeding 1200 hours of cumulative free-flyer operation as of April 2024, the Astrobee robots have encountered software and hardware anomalies. Despite its inherent design for on-orbit repair or replacement, certain anomalies have proven to be complex, necessitating remote resolution via software and firmware updates or, in extreme cases, hardware replacements or the return of faulty units to NASA's ground facilities for repair. Such challenges underscore the delicate balance between the autonomous functionality of Astrobee and the occasional need for human intervention to maintain optimal performance. One recurring point of failure identified during Astrobee's operational lifespan has been the SD card, a critical component utilized by the different Astrobee processors and the Dock Station. The occurrence of SD card anomalies, both on orbit and within ground units, has provided invaluable insights into the improvement of Astrobee's systems and mitigation to future faults. This presentation will focus on four key areas: 1. Overview of Faults and Anomalies: A comprehensive examination of the diverse array of faults and anomalies encountered by Astrobee and its associated systems both in orbit and on the ground. From software glitches to hardware malfunctions, this section provides insights into the challenges faced during Astrobee's operational tenure. 2. Resolution Processes and Procedures: An in-depth discussion of the methodologies and procedures implemented to resolve the encountered anomalies. This includes remote troubleshooting, software patches, firmware updates, and, when necessary, the logistics involved in hardware replacements or down-massing for repair. 3. Implementation of Software Updates and Hardware Upgrades: A detailed exploration of the strategies employed to mitigate the risk of recurring anomalies through the implementation of software updates and hardware upgrades. This section highlights the iterative nature of Astrobee's development, emphasizing the continuous pursuit of robustness and reliability. 4. Lessons Learned and Future Directions: Reflecting on the insights gained from addressing anomalies, this section examines the lessons learned and outlines future directions for enhancing Astrobee's robustness and resilience. It underscores the iterative nature of space exploration and the importance of adaptability and continuous improvement in the pursuit of scientific discovery. Through a nuanced examination of Astrobee's operational challenges and the strategies employed to overcome them, this presentation sheds light on the complexities of operating autonomous robotic systems in the ISS environment. It underscores NASA's commitment to pushing the boundaries of exploration and innovation while navigating the inherent challenges of space exploration.

Astrobee↗

Lessons Learned from Astrobee Operations on the International Space Station

Since its launch in 2019, NASA has been operating three Astrobee free-flying robots providing an autonomous and adaptable research platform aboard the International Space Station (ISS). These robots have not only facilitated a myriad of national and international research endeavors in microgravity but have also served as a STEM outreach platform for student competitions aboard the ISS. Amidst its extensive operational tenure, spanning over five years and exceeding 1200 hours of cumulative free-flyer operation as of April 2024, the Astrobee robots have encountered software and hardware anomalies. Despite its inherent design for on-orbit repair or replacement, certain anomalies have proven to be complex, necessitating remote resolution via software and firmware updates or, in extreme cases, hardware replacements or the return of faulty units to NASA's ground facilities for repair. Such challenges underscore the delicate balance between the autonomous functionality of Astrobee and the occasional need for human intervention to maintain optimal performance. One recurring point of failure identified during Astrobee's operational lifespan has been the SD card, a critical component utilized by the different Astrobee processors and the Dock Station. The occurrence of SD card anomalies, both on orbit and within ground units, has provided invaluable insights into the improvement of Astrobee's systems and mitigation to future faults. This presentation will focus on four key areas: 1. Overview of Faults and Anomalies: A comprehensive examination of the diverse array of faults and anomalies encountered by Astrobee and its associated systems both in orbit and on the ground. From software glitches to hardware malfunctions, this section provides insights into the challenges faced during Astrobee's operational tenure. 2. Resolution Processes and Procedures: An in-depth discussion of the methodologies and procedures implemented to resolve the encountered anomalies. This includes remote troubleshooting, software patches, firmware updates, and, when necessary, the logistics involved in hardware replacements or down-massing for repair. 3. Implementation of Software Updates and Hardware Upgrades: A detailed exploration of the strategies employed to mitigate the risk of recurring anomalies through the implementation of software updates and hardware upgrades. This section highlights the iterative nature of Astrobee's development, emphasizing the continuous pursuit of robustness and reliability. 4. Lessons Learned and Future Directions: Reflecting on the insights gained from addressing anomalies, this section examines the lessons learned and outlines future directions for enhancing Astrobee's robustness and resilience. It underscores the iterative nature of space exploration and the importance of adaptability and continuous improvement in the pursuit of scientific discovery. Through a nuanced examination of Astrobee's operational challenges and the strategies employed to overcome them, this presentation sheds light on the complexities of operating autonomous robotic systems in the ISS environment. It underscores NASA's commitment to pushing the boundaries of exploration and innovation while navigating the inherent challenges of space exploration.

Astrobee↗

Proceedings of the Fifteenth Annual Software Engineering Workshop

The Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) is an organization sponsored by GSFC and created for the purpose of investigating the effectiveness of software engineering technologies when applied to the development of applications software. The goals of the SEL are: (1) to understand the software development process in the GSFC environment; (2) to measure the effect of various methodologies, tools, and models on this process; and (3) to identify and then to apply successful development practices. Fifteen papers were presented at the Fifteenth Annual Software Engineering Workshop in five sessions: (1) SEL at age fifteen; (2) process improvement; (3) measurement; (4) reuse; and (5) process assessment. The sessions were followed by two panel discussions: (1) experiences in implementing an effective measurement program; and (2) software engineering in the 1980's. A summary of the presentations and panel discussions is given.

Source record↗

Validating automated resonance evaluation with synthetic data

The integrity and precision of nuclear data are crucial for a broad spectrum of applications, from national security and nuclear reactor design to medical diagnostics, where the associated uncertainties can significantly impact outcomes. A substantial portion of uncertainty in nuclear data originates from the subjective biases in the evaluation process, a crucial phase in the nuclear data production pipeline. Recent advancements indicate that automation of certain routines can mitigate these biases, thereby standardizing the evaluation process and enhancing reproducibility. This research aims to provide a methodology, framework, and metrics for the validation of automated nuclear data evaluation software leveraging high-quality synthetic data that closely mimic real experimental observables. An introduced error metric provides a scale and intuitive measure of the evaluation quality by quantifying the estimate’s accuracy and performance across the specified energy range. Synthetic data provides access to experimental observables and underlying resonance parameters, enabling comparison of different evaluations. The methodology is demonstrated using Ta-181 isotope data in the resolved resonance region. The Automated Resonance Identification Subroutine (ARIS), which operates without prior resonance information, was used to test and showcase the framework’s capabilities utilizing the proposed error metrics. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and framework for optimizing software parameters and testing hypotheses through “what-if” controlled experiments, such as modifying assumptions about experimental conditions or average resonance parameters.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Information models of software productivity - Limits on productivity growth

Research into generalized information-metric models of software process productivity establishes quantifiable behavior and theoretical bounds. The models establish a fundamental mathematical relationship between software productivity and the human capacity for information traffic, the software product yield (system size), information efficiency, and tool and process efficiencies. An upper bound is derived that quantifies average software productivity and the maximum rate at which it may grow. This bound reveals that ultimately, when tools, methodologies, and automated assistants have reached their maximum effective state, further improvement in productivity can only be achieved through increasing software reuse. The reuse advantage is shown not to increase faster than logarithmically in the number of reusable features available. The reuse bound is further shown to be somewhat dependent on the reuse policy: a general 'reuse everything' policy can lead to a somewhat slower productivity growth than a specialized reuse policy.

Tausworthe, Robert C.↗