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At least 451 records · Page 25

Recursive Blind Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation and Consumer Load for Microgrids

Existing forecasting frameworks that predict time-series photovoltaic (PV) generation and consumer load for micro-grids' operation and control assume near-continuous availability of real-time predictors from the field. The incoming data are used to periodically re-train the models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. This paper bridges the shortcoming by leveraging a previously proposed forecasting framework that is resilient to abrupt changes in data quality caused by communication losses. Assuming no availability of real-time field system data, which is typical in extreme weather events such as hurricanes, the framework uses lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance, ambient temperature, PV power, and consumer load for three horizon windows: 24 hours, 12 hours, and 1 hour. Four types of ensemble-based regression trees-simple gradient boosted trees (GBR), GBR with an adaptive component (A-GBR), random forests (RF), and extra trees (ExTR)-are leveraged and their performances are compared against a simple historical weekly mean. Numerical results show that A-GBR performs better on average by 32% for 24-hour horizon and 39% for 12-hour horizon, whereas ExTR outdoes the other models on average by 10% for 1-hour horizon.

Sundararajan, Aditya↗

PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative Program and Methodology

The US Department of Energy’s PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative has been launched in order to collect and evaluate production data across multiple PV fleet partners. Performance statistics are anonymized, aggregated and shared to represent a snapshot of the US commercial and utility-scale fleet. Production data have been collected from over 1500 systems representing more than 1.3 GWdc capacity. Preliminary analysis indicates median performance loss rates are in line with previous publications of system degradation, on the order of –0.6%/yr to –0.9%/yr (preliminary numbers subject to change). These values are higher than module-only degradation rates which are often used in pro-forma estimates of project performance and economics, potentially exposing owner/operators to increased risk if systems under-perform over time.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Statistical Performance Analysis on Approximately 320 Perovskite Single- and Two-Junction Solar Cells and Modules from >30 Global Sources

As perovskite photovoltaics (PV) advance from the laboratory to commercial prototypes, their accurate and reliable performance testing is becoming increasingly important. The well documented dynamic response of perovskite solar cells to an external applied voltage has led to the development of steady-state performance measurement methods; however, these methods have not been widely adopted by the perovskite PV community. A key reason for this is that steady-state measurement methods take tens of minutes to complete, as opposed to conventional "fast" current-voltage (I-V) measurements usually lasting a few seconds. Fast I-Vs arise from a snapshot, almost always not a steady-state condition of the device; however, given their widespread use, the question arises: how do performance parameters of perovskite PV compare when measured with fast I-V and with a steady-state method? We compile results from ca. 320 perovskite PV cells and modules, including single junction, and two-terminal perovskite-perovskite and perovskite-Si tandems, and show that fast I-Vs can provide a useful measure of the open-circuit voltage of the devices, while the short-circuit current and the overall efficiency can be widely misestimated. We discuss implications of these findings on performance testing protocols and propose possible options for fast and accurate testing of perovskite PV.

asymptotic↗

Matrix Completion for Improved Observability in Low-Voltage Distribution Grids

This paper considers the problem of recovering missing entries in a partially observed matrix from relatively few measurements (i.e., the so-called matrix completion problem) with the aim of increasing the presently limited observability of low-voltage distribution grids. To this end, the partially observed matrix is formed using scarce voltage magnitude measurements while accounting for their spatial information. Voltage readings are assumed to be collected from distribution utility sensors and/or geographically-distributed cable television network sensors located in immediate proximity to distribution grid nodes. A matrix completion approach built on the parameter-less singular value shrinkage technique is used to estimate voltage magnitudes at otherwise non-observable low-voltage nodes using a small number of single- or multiple-snapshot data. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated using a U.S.-style distribution test system from the synthetic SMART- DS data set under very low- to moderate-observability conditions.

low-rank matrix completion↗

Newton-Raphson AC Power Flow Convergence Based on Deep Learning Initialization and Homotopy Continuation

Power flow forms the basis of many power system studies. With the increased penetration of renewable energy, grid planners tend to perform multiple power flow simulations under various operating conditions and not just selected snapshots at peak or light load conditions. Getting a converged AC power flow (ACPF) case remains a significant challenge for grid planners especially in large power grid networks. This paper proposes a two-stage approach to improve Newton-Raphson ACPF convergence and was applied to a 6102 bus Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. The first stage utilizes a deep learning-based initializer with data re-training. Here a deep neural network (DNN) initializer is developed to provide better initial voltage magnitude and angle guesses to aid in power flow convergence. This is because Newton-Raphson ACPF is quite sensitive to the initial conditions and bad initialization could lead to divergence. The DNN initializer includes a data re-training framework that improves the initializer's performance when faced with limited training data. The DNN initializer successfully solved 3,285 cases out of 3,899 non-converging dispatch and performed better than random forest and DC power flow initialization methods. ACPF cases not solved in this first stage are then passed through a hot-starting algorithm based on homotopy continuation with switched shunt control. The hot-starting algorithm successfully converged 416 cases out of the remaining 614 non-converging ACPF dispatch. In conclusion, the combined two-stage approach achieved a 94.9% success rate, by converging a total of 3,701 cases out of the initial 3,899 unsolved cases.

Deep learning↗

An Online Search Method for Representative Risky Fault Chains Based on Reinforcement Learning and Knowledge Transfer

In the analysis of cascading outages and blackouts in power systems, risky cascading fault chains should be accurately identified in order to do further block or alleviate blackouts. However, the huge computational burden makes online analysis difficult. In this paper, an online search method for representative risky fault chains based on reinforcement learning and knowledge transfer is proposed. This method aims at promoting efficiency by exploiting similarities of adjacent power flow snapshots in operations. After the “representative risky fault chain” is defined, a framework of tree search based on Markov Decision Process and Q-learning is constructed. The knowledge in past runs is accumulated offline and then applied online, with a mechanism of knowledge transition and extension. The proposed learning based approach is verified on an illustrative 39-bus system with different loading levels, and simulations are carried out on a realworld 1000-bus power grid in China to show the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

Blackout↗

Science Capsule: Towards Sharing and Reproducibility of Scientific Workflows

Workflows are increasingly processing large volumes of data from scientific instruments, experiments and sensors. These workflows often consist of complex data processing and analysis steps that might include a diverse ecosystem of tools and also often involve human-in-the-loop steps. Sharing and reproducing these workflows with collaborators and the larger community is critical but hard to do without the entire context of the workflow including user notes and execution environment. In this paper, we describe Science Capsule, which is a framework to capture, share, and reproduce scientific workflows. Science Capsule captures, manages and represents both computational and human elements of a workflow. It automatically captures and processes events associated with the execution and data life cycle of workflows, and lets users add other types and forms of scientific artifacts. Science Capsule also allows users to create `workflow snapshots' that keep track of the different versions of a workflow and their lineage, allowing scientists to incrementally share and extend workflows between users. Our results show that Science Capsule is capable of processing and organizing events in near real-time for high-throughput experimental and data analysis workflows without incurring any significant performance overheads.

Ghoshal, Devarshi↗

Salinity–induced limits to mangrove canopy height

Aim: Mangrove canopy height is a key metric to assess tidal forests' resilience in the face of climate change. In terrestrial forests, tree height is primarily determined by water availability, plant hydraulic design, and disturbance regime. However, the role of water stress remains elusive in tidal environments, where saturated soils are prevalent, and salinity can substantially affect the soil water potential. Location: Global. Time Period: The canopy height dataset provides a global snapshot of the maximum mangrove height geographical distribution for the year 2000. Climate and environmental variables extend over the period 1970–2018. Major Taxa Studied: Mangroves. Methods: We use global observations of maximum canopy height, species richness, air temperature, and seawater salinity—a proxy of soil water salt concentration—to explore the causal link between salinity and mangrove stature. Results: Our findings suggest that salt stress limits mangrove height. High salinity favours more salt-tolerant species, narrowing the spectrum of viable traits. Highly salt-tolerant mangroves have evolved to cope with high salt concentrations in the soil, but this adaptation comes at a cost. They typically have lower rates of photosynthesis and growth, resulting in reduced productivity and smaller stature compared to more salt-sensitive mangrove species. This suggests a causal link between salinity, biodiversity, and tree height, where high salinity selects for more salt-tolerant species that tend to be less productive and shorter. Conclusions: We hypothesize that the salinity-induced limit to mangrove canopy height is the direct result of a reduction of primary productivity, an increment in the risk of xylem cavitation, and an indirect consequence of the decrease in biodiversity. As sea-level rise enhances coastal salinisation, failure to account for these effects can lead to incorrect estimates of future carbon stocks in Tropical coastal ecosystems and endanger preservation efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reliability-Informed Economic and Energy Evaluation for Bi-Level Design for Remanufacturing: A Case Study of Transmission and Hydraulic Manifold

Abstract Design for remanufacturing (DfRem) is one attractive strategy that encourages the reuse of a product and extends the product's life cycle. Traditional design processes often only consider product reliability at an early design stage. However, from the perspective of environmental sustainability, it is becoming increasingly important to evaluate the long-term economic and environmental impacts of design decisions during early-stage design. We propose a bi-level DfRem framework consisting of system-level reusability allocation and component-level design tradeoff analysis, considering reliability and product warranty policy. First, a system-level reusability allocation problem aims at a theoretical exploration of the design space where all the components comprising the system are allocated certain reuse rates to achieve target energy savings with minimum cost. Following the theoretical exploration at the system level, a component-level analysis looks at practical design options for each component and trades-off between the overall cost and energy consumption for multiple remanufacturing cycles. Both levels of the framework require modeling component reuse for multiple remanufacturing cycles, which we achieve by using a branched power-law model that provides probabilistic scenarios of reusing the component or replacing it with a new part. We demonstrate the utility of this framework with the case study of an infinitely variable transmission (IVT) used by some agricultural machines manufactured by John Deere and show snapshots of a prototype software tool that we developed for easy use by designers.

Engineering↗

Reliability of Copper Inverse Opal Surfaces for Extreme-Heat-Flux Micro-Coolers in Low-Global-Warming-Potential Refrigerant R-1233zd Pool Boiling Experiments

This presentation provides a brief snapshot of the InterPACK paper InterPACK2023-113781. The paper explores copper inverse opal (CIO) surface reliability in pool boiling experiments in water and a new, low-global-warming-potential (GWP = 1) hydrofluoroolefin (HFO) refrigerant R-1233zd. The CIO-based structure is intended to develop enhanced two-phase heat transfer surfaces for extreme-heat-flux (approximately 1 kW/cm2) micro-coolers. In this study, a limited number of pool boiling experiments were performed using water and HFO-1233zd fluid, and the reliability of the CIO-based surfaces was evaluated. Critical heat flux (CHF) values in HFO-1233zd at 40 Degrees Celsius to 45 Degrees Celsius saturation temperatures and the corresponding saturation pressures were also measured. The CHF values with the refrigerant are significantly lower compared to those with water, but the refrigerant allows for a wider usable temperature range in the end application of the micro-coolers and is not limited to data centers with controlled ambient conditions. Reliability experiments with CIO surface samples - involving pool boiling with water on the CIO surfaces for approximately 48 hours and with HFO-1233zd for 144 hours - showed no structural degradation of the enhanced surface or any significant performance drop in heat transfer coefficients. The CIO surface samples in water were oxidized, most likely due to the presence of air in water and in the experimental vessel.

critical heat flux↗

Development and transferability of neural-network models for plasma-surface interactions

Plasma-surface interactions are increasingly critical to modern technologies; yet, accurate molecular dynamics simulations remain limited by the capabilities of interatomic potentials. Deep Potentials (DPs) promise to revolutionize the field by providing a systematic method for producing accurate interatomic potentials. The primary challenge of DP development is selecting a dataset, which efficiently spans the set of atomic environments one expects to encounter in the subsequent molecular dynamics simulations. The computational cost of density functional theory calculations, which are the typical basis for DP development, makes it impossible to directly verify the quality of a given DP. To address this challenge, we explore the development of a deep-learned interatomic potential, “DeepREBO,” trained to reproduce the behavior of the REBO2 empirical potential, enabling direct validation of training methodology and transferability. Using an active learning framework, we begin with a minimal dataset and iteratively expand it to train a Deep Potential-Smooth Edition model that faithfully reproduces REBO2 results for 25 eV hydrogen bombardment of diamond (001), a particularly challenging case. We show that small, carefully curated datasets can outperform large, unguided ones, with effective models requiring fewer than 15 000 snapshots. Subsequent transferability tests demonstrate that while DeepREBO generalizes well to diamond (111) surfaces, performance degrades for amorphous carbon or higher-energy impacts, highlighting the need for use-case-specific training data. We also evaluate methods to improve short-range repulsion. This study outlines best practices for training robust deep potentials and underscores the importance of dataset design for predictive plasma simulations.

Ab-initio molecular dynamics↗

Status report on emerging photovoltaics

This report provides a snapshot of emerging photovoltaic (PV) technologies. It consists of concise contributions from experts in a wide range of fields including silicon, thin film, III-V, perovskite, organic, and dye-sensitized PVs. Strategies for exceeding the detailed balance limit and for light managing are presented, followed by a section detailing key applications and commercialization pathways. A section on sustainability then discusses the need for minimization of the environmental footprint in PV manufacturing and recycling. The report concludes with a perspective based on broad survey questions presented to the contributing authors regarding the needs and future evolution of PV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Ensemble-function relationships to dissect mechanisms of enzyme catalysis

Decades of structure-function studies have established our current extensive understanding of enzymes. However, traditional structural models are snapshots of broader conformational ensembles of interchanging states. We demonstrate the need for conformational ensembles to understand function, using the enzyme ketosteroid isomerase (KSI) as an example. Comparison of prior KSI cryogenic x-ray structures suggested deleterious mutational effects from a misaligned oxyanion hole catalytic residue. However, ensemble information from room-temperature x-ray crystallography, combined with functional studies, excluded this model. Ensemble-function analyses can deconvolute effects from altering the probability of occupying a state (P-effects) and changing the reactivity of each state (k-effects); our ensemble-function analyses revealed functional effects arising from weakened oxyanion hole hydrogen bonding and substrate repositioning within the active site. Ensemble-function studies will have an integral role in understanding enzymes and in meeting the future goals of a predictive understanding of enzyme catalysis and engineering new enzymes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

New-generation geostationary satellite reveals widespread midday depression in dryland photosynthesis during 2020 western U.S. heatwave

Emerging new-generation geostationary satellites have broadened the scope for studying the diurnal cycle of ecosystem functions. We exploit observations from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series to examine the effect of a severe U.S. heatwave in 2020 on the diurnal variations of ecosystem photosynthesis. We find divergent responses of photosynthesis to the heatwave across vegetation types and aridity gradients, with drylands exhibiting widespread midday and afternoon depression in photosynthesis. The diurnal centroid and peak time of dryland gross primary production (GPP) substantially shift toward earlier morning times, reflecting notable water and heat stress. Our geostationary satellite-based method outperforms traditional radiation-based upscaling methods from polar-orbiting satellite snapshots in estimating daily GPP and GPP loss during heatwaves. These findings underscore the potential of geostationary satellites for diurnal photosynthesis monitoring and highlight the necessity to consider the increased diurnal asymmetry in GPP under stress when evaluating carbon-climate interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Trapping and imaging dynamic battery nanointerfaces via electrified cryo-EM

The electrified interface between a liquid and a solid underpins diverse phenomena, from ion-transfer during battery operation to action potentials enabling biological communication. However, conventional tools are blind to the nanoscale dynamics of this metastable interface. Here, we leverage electrified cryo–electron microscopy (eCryo-EM), a technique that rapidly freezes and kinetically traps these dynamic, nonequilibrium states during battery operation for nanoscale characterization. Collective snapshots of the electrified interface at controlled time intervals quantifies early-stage growth kinetics of the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI), a passivation film that governs electron and ion transport. Unexpectedly, the diffusivity of charged species of the two SEI films with differing chemistry and performance are estimated to be within 10% of the other, indicated by the slope of their diffusion-limited SEI growth regimes. Instead, the slope of the reaction-limited SEI growth regimes differs by a factor of 3, suggesting that lowered reactivity of the high-performance electrolyte is largely responsible for its high coulombic efficiency.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Mechanism and dynamics of fatty acid photodecarboxylase

Photoenzymes are rare biocatalysts driven by absorption of a photon at each catalytic cycle; they inspire development of artificial photoenzymes with valuable activities. Fatty acid photodecarboxylase (FAP) is a natural photoenzyme that has potential applications in the bio-based production of hydrocarbons, yet its mechanism is far from fully understood. RATIONALE To elucidate the mechanism of FAP, we studied the wild-type (WT) enzyme from Chlorella variabilis (CvFAP) and variants with altered active-site residues using a wealth of techniques, including static and time-resolved crystallography and spectroscopy, as well as biochemical and computational approaches. RESULTS A 1.8-Å-resolution CvFAP x-ray crystal structure revealed a dense hydrogen-bonding network positioning the fatty acid carboxyl group in the vicinity of the flavin adenine dinucleotide (FAD) cofactor. Structures solved from free electron laser and low-dose synchrotron x-ray crystal data further highlighted an unusual bent shape of the oxidized flavin chromophore, and showed that the bending angle (14°) did not change upon photon absorption (step 1) or throughout the photocycle. Calculations showed that bending substantially affected the energy levels of the flavin. Structural and spectroscopic analysis of WT and mutant proteins targeting two conserved active-site residues, R451 and C432, demonstrated that both residues were crucial for proper positioning of the substrate and water molecules and for oxidation of the fatty acid carboxylate by 1 FAD* (~300 ps in WT FAP) to form FAD ∙– (step 2). Time-resolved infrared spectroscopy demonstrated that decarboxylation occured quasi-instantaneously upon this forward electron transfer, consistent with barrierless bond cleavage predicted by quantum chemistry calculations and with snapshots obtained by time-resolved crystallography. Transient absorption spectroscopy in H 2 O and D 2 O buffers indicated that back electron transfer from FAD ∙– was coupled to and limited by transfer of an exchangeable proton or hydrogen atom (step 3). Unexpectedly, concomitant with FAD ∙– reoxidation (to a red-shifted form FAD RS ) in 100 ns, most of the CO 2 product was converted, most likely into bicarbonate (as inferred from FTIR spectra of the cryotrapped FAD RS intermediate). Calculations indicated that this catalytic transformation involved an active-site water molecule. Cryo-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy studies suggested that bicarbonate formation (step 4) was preceded by deprotonation of an arginine residue (step 3). At room temperature, the remaining CO 2 left the protein in 1.5 μs (step 4'). The observation of residual electron density close to C432 in electron density maps derived from time-resolved and cryocrystallography data suggests that this residue may play a role in stabilizing CO 2 and/or bicarbonate. Three routes for alkane formation were identified by quantum chemistry calculations; the one shown in the figure is favored by the ensemble of experimental data. CONCLUSION Finally, we provide a detailed and comprehensive characterization of light-driven hydrocarbon formation by FAP, which uses a remarkably complex mechanism including unique catalytic steps. We anticipate that our results will help to expand the green chemistry toolkit.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Craspase is a CRISPR RNA-guided, RNA-activated protease

The CRISPR-Cas type III-E RNA-targeting effector complex gRAMP/Cas7-11 is associated with a caspase-like protein (TPR-CHAT/Csx29) to form Craspase (CRISPR-guided caspase). Here, we use cryo–electron microscopy snapshots of Craspase to explain its target RNA cleavage and protease activation mechanisms. Target-guide pairing extending into the 5' region of the guide RNA displaces a gating loop in gRAMP, which triggers an extensive conformational relay that allosterically aligns the protease catalytic dyad and opens an amino acid side-chain–binding pocket. We further define Csx30 as the endogenous protein substrate that is site-specifically proteolyzed by RNA-activated Craspase. This protease activity is switched off by target RNA cleavage by gRAMP and is not activated by RNA targets containing a matching protospacer flanking sequence. We thus conclude that Craspase is a target RNA–activated protease with self-regulatory capacity.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Electron scattering processes: fundamentals, challenges, advances, and opportunities

Much effort has been devoted to describing qualitatively and quantitatively electron scattering processes due to their ever-increasing importance in many industrial and medical applications. We present achievements made in the last years, focusing on some of the advancements and recent progress in the field. Particular reference is made on concrete case studies to probe the level of accord in cross-section data obtained from experiments and theory, as well as on selected instrumentation developments to probe dynamics of dissociative processes induced by electron impact. We stress that the purpose of this colloquium paper is not to be a comprehensive review but rather to provide a snapshot of different research topics in electron scattering by pointing out certain challenges and, therefore, indicating opportunities to facilitate further experimental and theoretical work.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗