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At least 451 records · Page 25

A very wide frequency band pulsed/IF radar system

A pulsed/IF radar for compact range radar cross section measurements has been developed which converts RF returns to a fixed IF, so that amplification and grating may be performed at one frequency. This permits the use of components which have optimal performance at this frequency which results in a corresponding improvement in performance. Sensitivity and dynamic range are calculated for this system and compared with our old radar, and the effect of pulse width on clutter level is also studied. Sensitivity and accuracy tests are included to verify the performance of the radar.

Jones, D. N.↗

The atmospheric CH4 increase since the Last Glacial Maximum. II - Interactions with oxidants

Results of two studies of the effect of changing CH4 fluxes on global tropospheric oxidant levels, O3, OH, and H2O2, performed with a multibox photochemical model, are presented. A sensitivity study is conducted by scaling back CH4, CO, and NO emissions relative to the present-day budget. When the CH4 ice core record is compared to calculated CH4 abundances, corresponding CH4 fluxes for the preindustrial Holocene (PIH) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are fairly well-constrained: 175-225 Tg CH/4/yr for PIH and 100-130 Tg CH4/yr for LGM. Specific scenarios for CH4/CO/NO are selected to represent sources for the PIH and LGM. The CH4 budget is taken from an evaluation of wetlands and other natural sources.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

NAS Demand Predictions, Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) Compared with Other Forecasts

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

Viken, Jeff↗

Utilizing Traveler Demand Modeling to Predict Future Commercial Flight Schedules in the NAS

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

Viken, Jeff↗

A study on the sensitivity and simultaneous adjustment of a hoop-column antenna surface

The results of a recent surface adjustment of the 15-meter diameter hoop-column antenna are presented. A least-squares differential algorithm is used to adjust the surface shape as close as possible to a perfect parabola. Since the desired perfect parabola is not uniquely known a priori, parameters of the perfect parabola are included in the design vector along with the cable length changes. As an extension to an earlier study, lateral sensitivity is included in the least-squares adjustment procedure. In addition, the effect of cable length uncertainties on the surface RMS error is considered and an error bound is derived. The results in this study indicate an improvement over earlier studies. The sensitivity analysis provided a quantitative measure of the needed accuracy of the cable adjustments in the laboratory. Recommendations are included to further enhance shape adjustment.

Lim, Kyong Been↗

Economic evaluation on CO₂-EOR of onshore oil fields in China

Carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO₂-EOR) and sequestration in depleted oil reservoirs is a plausible option for utilizing anthropogenic CO₂ to increase oil production while storing CO₂ underground. Evaluation of the storage resources and cost of potential CO₂-EOR projects is an essential step before the commencement of large-scale deployment of such activities. In this paper, a hybrid techno-economic evaluation method, including a performance model and cost model for onshore CO₂-EOR projects, has been developed based on previous studies. Total 296 onshore oil fields, accounting for about 70% of total mature onshore oil fields in China, were evaluated by the techno-economic method. The key findings of this study are summarized as follows: (1) deterministic analysis shows there are approximately 1.1 billion tons (7.7 billion barrels) of incremental crude oil and 2.2 billion tons CO₂ storage resource for onshore CO₂-EOR at net positive revenue within the Chinese oil fields reviewed under the given operating strategy and economic assumptions. (2) Sensitivity study highlights that the cumulative oil production and cumulative CO₂ storage resource are very sensitive to crude oil price, CO₂ cost, project lifetime, discount rate and tax policy. High oil price, short project lifetime, low discount rate, low CO₂ cost, and low tax policy can greatly increase the net income of the oil enterprise, incremental oil recovery and CO₂ storage resource. (3) From this techno-economic evaluation, the major barriers to large-scale deployment of CO₂-EOR include complex geological conditions, low API of crude oil, high tax policy, and lack of incentives for the CO₂-EOR project.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Microgravity Geyser and Flow Field Prediction

Modeling and prediction of flow fields and geyser formation in microgravity cryogenic propellant tanks was investigated. A computational simulation was used to reproduce the test matrix of experimental results performed by other investigators, as well as to model the flows in a larger tank. An underprediction of geyser height by the model led to a sensitivity study to determine if variations in surface tension coefficient, contact angle, or jet pipe turbulence significantly influence the simulations. It was determined that computational geyser height is not sensitive to slight variations in any of these items. An existing empirical correlation based on dimensionless parameters was re-examined in an effort to improve the accuracy of geyser prediction. This resulted in the proposal for a re-formulation of two dimensionless parameters used in the correlation; the non-dimensional geyser height and the Bond number. It was concluded that the new non-dimensional geyser height shows little promise. Although further data will be required to make a definite judgement, the reformulation of the Bond number provided correlations that are more accurate and appear to be more general than the previously established correlation.

Hochstein, J. I.↗

Relationship between Trends in Land Precipitation and Tropical SST Gradient

In this study, we examined global zonal/annual mean precipitation trends. Land precipitation trend from 1951 to 2002 shows widespread drying between 10 S to 20 N but the trend from 1977 to 2002 shows partial recovery. Based on general circulation model sensitivity studies, we suggested that these features are driven largely by the meridional SST gradient trend in the tropics. Our idealized CCM3 experiments substantiated that land precipitation is more sensitive to meridional SST gradient than to an overall tropical warming. Various simulations produced for the IPCC 4th assessment report demonstrate that increasing CO2 increases SST in the entire tropics non-uniformly and increases land precipitation only in certain latitude belts, again pointing to the importance of SST gradient change. Temporally varying aerosols in the IPCC simulations alter meridional SST gradient and land precipitation substantially. Anthropogenic aerosol direct solar forcing without its effects on SST is shown by the CCM3 to have weak but non-negligible influence on land precipitation.

Chung, Chul Eddy↗

Numerical Simulation of a Natural Convection–Driven Air-Cooled Reactor Cavity Cooling System Experiment

Ensuring the efficient removal of decay heat from the reactor vessel is essential for the safety of advanced reactor technologies. Several Generation-IV concepts incorporate variations in the reactor vessel cooling systems to achieve this objective. High-temperature gas-cooled reactors utilize a reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS), a passive ex-vessel system designed to operate without active components or external power during accident conditions. The RCCS removes decay heat primarily through radiative and convective heat transfer mechanisms. Here, this study presents a comprehensive validation of a computational fluid dynamics Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes model for the University of Wisconsin-Madison air-cooled RCCS facility. Validation was conducted for both high- and low-power natural convection cases under a uniform heating profile. Near-wall resolution was found to be critical for accurately modeling natural convection in the RCCS; employing an all-𝑦 + wall treatment resulted in wall temperature discrepancies exceeding 50 °⁢𝐶 compared to a wall-resolved mesh. Thermal-hydraulic behaviors under natural and forced convection conditions were compared within the heated cavity and RCCS. A turbulence model sensitivity analysis indicated that low-Reynolds number k-ɛ, k-ω shear stress transport (SST), and Reynolds stress transport models produce similar wall temperature predictions. A buoyancy modeling sensitivity study revealed that the Boussinesq approximation significantly underpredicted thermal-hydraulic behavior in the RCCS. Based on these findings, modeling recommendations are provided. The validated data set along with identified sensitivities refine the modeling of natural convection in the RCCS. The information produced by this study supports RCCS design, optimization, and safety evaluations, enabling the calibration and verification of reduced-order thermal-hydraulic models.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Simulation Study of the Influence of Experimental Variations on the Structure and Quality of Plasma Liners

Simulation studies of a section of a spherically imploding plasma liner, formed by the merger of six hypersonic plasma jets, have been performed at conditions relevant to the Plasma Liner Experiment (PLX) [S. C. Hsu et al., IEEE Trans. Plasma Sci. 46, 1951 (2018)]. The main aim of simulations was the sensitivity study of the detailed structure of plasma liners and their global properties to experimental mass variations and timing jitter across the six plasma jets. Experimentally observable synthetic quantities have been computed using simulation data and compared with the available experimental data. Simulations predicted that the primary oblique shock wave structure is preserved at small experimental variations. At later phases of the liner implosion, primary shocks and, especially, secondary shocks are more sensitive to experimental variations. These conclusions follow from the simulation data as well as the experimental CCD camera images. Small displacements of the shock wave structures may also cause significant changes in the synthetic interferometer data at early time. Our studies showed that the global properties of the plasma liners (averaged Mach number and averaged ram pressure along leading edges of plasma liners) are not very sensitive to experimental variations. Simulation data of the liner structure were largely confirmed by the PLX experimental data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Radiative Transfer Modeling of Phytoplankton Fluorescence Quenching Processes

We report the first radiative transfer model that is able to simulate phytoplankton fluorescence with both photo chemical and non-photo chemical quenching included. The fluorescence source term in the inelastic radiative transfer equation is proportional to both the quantum yield and scalar irradiance at excitation wavelengths. The photo chemical and non photo chemical quenching processes change the quantum yield based on the photosynthetic active radiation. A sensitivity study was performed to demonstrate the dependence of the fluorescence signal on chlorophyll a concentration, aerosol optical depths and solar zenith angles. This work enables us to better model the phytoplankton fluorescence, which can be used in the design of new space-based sensors that can provide sufficient sensitivity to detect the phytoplankton fluorescence signal. It could also lead to more accurate remote sensing algorithms for the study of phytoplankton physiology.

Inelastic scattering↗

Methane Diffusion and Adsorption in Shale Rocks: A Numerical Study Using the Dusty Gas Model in TOUGH2/EOS7C-ECBM

Gas production from shale gas reservoirs plays a significant role in satisfying increasing energy demands. Compared with conventional sandstone and carbonate reservoirs, shale gas reservoirs are characterized by extremely low porosity, ultra-low permeability and high clay content. Slip flow, diffusion, adsorption and desorption are the primary gas transport processes in shale matrix, while Darcy flow is restricted to fractures. Understanding methane diffusion and adsorption, and gas flow and equilibrium in the low-permeability matrix of shale is crucial for shale formation evaluation and for predicting gas production. Modeling of diffusion in low-permeability shale rocks requires use of the Dusty gas model (DGM) rather than Fick’s law. The DGM is incorporated in the TOUGH2 module EOS7C-ECBM, a modified version of EOS7C that simulates multicomponent gas mixture transport in porous media. Also included in EOS7C-ECBM is the extended Langmuir model for adsorption and desorption of gases. In this study, a column shale model was constructed to simulate methane diffusion and adsorption through shale rocks. The process of binary CH 4 - N 2 diffusion and adsorption was analyzed. A sensitivity study was performed to investigate the effects of pressure, temperature and permeability on diffusion and adsorption in shale rocks. The results show that methane gas diffusion and adsorption in shale is a slow process of dynamic equilibrium, which can be illustrated by the slope of a curve in CH4mass variation. The amount of adsorption increases with the pressure increase at the low pressure, and the mass change by gas diffusion will decrease due to the decrease in the compressibility factor of the gas. With the elevated temperature, the gas molecules move faster and then the greater gas diffusion rates make the process duration shorter. The gas diffusion rate decreases with the permeability decrease, and there is a limit of gas diffusion if the permeability is less than 1.0×10 -15 m 2 . In conclusion, the results can provide insights for a better understanding of methane diffusion and adsorption in the shale rocks so as to optimize gas production performance of shale gas reservoirs.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

DNS and LES of turbulent flow in a closed channel featuring a pattern of hemispherical roughness elements

Three mesh adaptivity algorithms were developed to facilitate and expedite the use of the CADIS and FW-CADIS hybrid Monte Carlo/deterministic techniques in accurate full-scale neutronics simulations of fusion energy systems with immense sizes and complicated geometries. First, a macromaterial approach enhances the fidelity of the deterministic models without changing the mesh. Second, a deterministic mesh refinement algorithm generates meshes that capture as much geometric detail as possible without exceeding a specified maximum number of mesh elements. Finally, a weight window coarsening algorithm decouples the weight window mesh and energy bins from the mesh and energy group structure of the deterministic calculations in order to remove the memory constraint of the weight window map from the deterministic mesh resolution. The three algorithms were used to enhance an FW-CADIS calculation of the prompt dose rate throughout the ITER experimental facility and resulted in a 23.3% increase in the number of mesh tally elements in which the dose rates were calculated in a 10-day Monte Carlo calculation. Additionally, because of the significant increase in the efficiency of FW-CADIS simulations, the three algorithms enabled this difficult calculation to be accurately solved on a regular computer cluster, eliminating the need for a world-class super computer.

Nuclear Science & Technology↗

Impact of Local Sensors

Forecasters at the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) use observations from the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) wind tower network and the CCAFS (XMR) daily rawinsonde observations (RAOB) to issue and verify wind advisories and warnings for operations. These observations are also used by the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) in Houston, Texas and the NWS Melbourne, Florida (NWS MLB) to initialize their locally-run mesoscale models. In addition, SMG uses these observations to support shuttle landings at the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF). Due to impending budget cuts, some or all of the KSC/CCAFS wind towers on the east-central Florida mainland and the XMR RAOBs may be eliminated. The locations of the mainland towers and XMR RAOB site are shown in Figure I. The loss of these data may impact the forecast capability of the 45 WS, SMG and NWS MLB. The AMU was tasked to conduct an objective independent modeling study to help determine how important these observations are to the accuracy of the model output used by the forecasters. To accomplish this, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) performed a sensitivity study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized with and without KSC/CCAFS wind tower and XMR RAOB data.

Watson, Leela R.↗

Impact of the Number of Applied Current Meter Sensors on the Accuracy of Flow Rate Measurements across a Range of Hydroelectric Facilities Indicative of the Domestic Hydroelectric Fleet

The following paper represents the results of an investigation into the impact of the number and placement of Current Meter (CM) flow sensors on the accuracy to which they are capable of predicting the overall flow rate. Flow measurement accuracy is of particular importance in multiunit plants because it plays a pivotal role in determining the operational efficiency characteristics of each unit, allowing the operator to select the unit (or combination of units) which most efficiently meet demand. Several case studies have demonstrated that optimization of unit dispatch has the potential to increase plant efficiencies from between 1 to 4.4 percent [2] [3]. Unfortunately current industry standards do not have an established methodology to measure the flow rate through hydropower units with short converging intakes (SCI); the only direction provided is that CM sensors should be used. The most common application of CM is horizontally, along a trolley which is incrementally lowered across a measurement cross section. As such, the measurement resolution is defined horizontally and vertically by the number of CM and the number of measurement increments respectively. There has not been any published research on the role of resolution in either direction on the accuracy of flow measurement. The work below investigates the effectiveness of flow measurement in a SCI by performing a case study in which point velocity measurements were extracted from a physical plant and then used to calculate a series of reference flow distributions. These distributions were then used to perform sensitivity studies on the relation between the number of CM and the accuracy to which the flow rate was predicted. The following research uncovered that a minimum of 795 plants contain SCI, a quantity which represents roughly 12% of total domestic hydropower capacity. In regards to measurement accuracy, it was determined that accuracy ceases to increase considerably due to strict increases in vertical resolution beyond the application of 49 transects. Moreover the research uncovered that the application of 5 CM (when applied at 49 vertical transects) resulted in an average accuracy of 95.6% and the application of additional sensors resulted in a linear increase in accuracy up to 17 CM which had an average accuracy of 98.5%. Beyond 17 CM incremental increases in accuracy due to the addition of CM was found decrease exponentially. Future work that will be performed in this area will investigate the use of computational fluid dynamics to acquire a broader range of flow fields within SCI.

Flow Measurement↗

DarkNews: a Python-based event generator for heavy neutral lepton production in neutrino-nucleus scattering

We introduce DarkNews, a lightweight Python-based Monte-Carlo generator for beyond-the-Standard-Model neutrino-nucleus scattering. The generator handles the production and decay of heavy neutral leptons via additional vector or scalar mediators, as well as through transition magnetic moments. DarkNews samples pre-computed neutrino-nucleus upscattering cross sections and heavy neutrino decay rates to produce dilepton and single-photon events in accelerator neutrino experiments. We present two case studies with differential distributions for models that can explain the MiniBooNE excess. The aim of this code is to aid the neutrino theory and experimental communities in performing searches and sensitivity studies for new particles produced in neutrino upscattering.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Evaluation of Subgrid-scale Hydrometeor Transport Schemes using a High-resolution Cloud-resolving Model

Potential ways of parameterizing vertical turbulent fluxes of hydrometeors are examined using a high-resolution cloud-resolving model. The cloud-resolving model uses the Morrison microphysics scheme, which contains prognostic variables for rain, graupel, ice, and snow. A benchmark simulation with a horizontal grid spacing of 250 m of a deep convection case carried out to evaluate three different ways of parameterizing the turbulent vertical fluxes of hydrometeors: an eddy-diffusion approximation, a quadrant-based decomposition, and a scaling method that accounts for within-quadrant (subplume) correlations. Results show that the down-gradient nature of the eddy-diffusion approximation tends to transport mass away from concentrated regions, whereas the benchmark simulation indicates that the vertical transport tends to transport mass from below the level of maximum to aloft. Unlike the eddy-diffusion approach, the quadri-modal decomposition is able to capture the signs of the flux gradient but underestimates the magnitudes. The scaling approach is shown to perform the best by accounting for within-quadrant correlations, and improves the results for all hydrometeors except for snow. A sensitivity study is performed to examine how vertical transport may affect the microphysics of the hydrometeors. The vertical transport of each hydrometeor type is artificially suppressed in each test. Results from the sensitivity tests show that cloud-droplet-related processes are most sensitive to suppressed rain or graupel transport. In particular, suppressing rain or graupel transport has a strong impact on the production of snow and ice aloft. Lastly, a viable subgrid-scale hydrometeor transport scheme in an assumed probability density function parameterization is discussed.

cloud-resolving model↗

CO fundamental bands in late-type stars. II - Spectrum simulations for F-K stars

The procedure of Ayres and Wiedemann (1989) was applied to a range of stellar-atmosphere models to study the CO Delta-v = 1 spectrum and to establish its use as a remote sensor of thermal conditions in late-type stars. Spectra were computed to examine the sensitivity of the CO Delta-v = 1 to fundamental stellar parameters and to assess the errors introduced into the spectrum intepretation by uncertain input parameters and non-LTE effects. Results of the sensitivity study demonstrate that CO fundamental spectra are useful probes for the temperature structure of the outer layers of cool stellar atmospheres, but that their value is limited by the uncertainties introduced by non-LTE effects. However, in stars with surface gravities of log g of about 1.5 and greater, the values of these uncertainties are reasonably small.

Wiedemann, Guenter↗