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DOE OSTI2020

Flux Seasonality Metrics Database: A companion dataset for FLUXNET annual product

This dataset include standardized phenological transition dates, and derived season lengths of active, dormant and transition seasons of ecosystem carbon and energy fluxes, as reported in FLUXNET. Such metrics are unique in that they characterize the seasonal dynamics of these fluxes in their own terms rather than in reference to traditional phenology indicators that mostly relate to vegetation structural characteristics. The Flux Seasonality Metrics Database (FSMD) generated 17 standardized seasonality metrics for 4 different fluxes including gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RE), latent heat (LE) and sensible heat (H) reported in FLUXNET2015 Dataset for about 200 sites and 1500 site-years of data globally. Each metric is reported as an estimate and a confidence interval, which is a function of data coverage and flux variability. We anticipate that the FSMD will facilitate new model validation exercises, and stimulate new research in global change and Earth science disciplines where land-atmosphere exchange dynamics play a central role.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2007

Impact of MODIS High-Resolution Sea-Surface Temperatures on WRF Forecasts at NWS Miami, FL

Over the past few years,studies at the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center have suggested that the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) composite sea-surface temperature (SST) products in regional weather forecast models can have a significant positive impact on short-term numerical weather prediction in coastal regions. The recent paper by LaCasse et al. (2007, Monthly Weather Review) highlights lower atmospheric differences in regional numerical simulations over the Florida offshore waters using 2-km SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument aboard the polar-orbiting Aqua and Terra Earth Observing System satellites. To help quantify the value of this impact on NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the SPoRT Center and the NWS WFO at Miami, FL (MIA) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using the high-resolution MODIS SST fields within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The scientific hypothesis being tested is: More accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing within WRF will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. The NWS MIA is currently running the WRF system in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software; The EMS is a standalone modeling system capable of downloading the necessary daily datasets, and initializing, running and displaying WRF forecasts in the NWS Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) with little intervention required by forecasters. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run daily with start times of 0300,0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and the far western portions of the Bahamas, the Florida Keys, the Straights of Florida, and adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Each model run is initialized using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) analyses available in AWIPS, invoking the diabatic. "hot-start" capability. In this WRF model "hot-start", the LAPS-analyzed cloud and precipitation features are converted into model microphysics fields with enhanced vertical velocity profiles, effectively reducing the model spin-up time required to predict precipitation systems. The SSTs are initialized with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses at l/12 degree resolution (approx. 9 km); however, the RTG product does not exhibit fine-scale details consistent with its grid resolution. SPoRT is conducting parallel WRF EMS runs identical to the operational runs at NWS MIA in every respect except for the use of MODIS SST composites in place of the RTG product as the initial and boundary conditions over water. The MODIS SST composites for initializing the SPoRT WRF runs are generated on a 2-km grid four times daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, based on the times of the overhead passes of the Aqua and Terra satellites. The incorporation of the MODIS SST composites into the SPoRTWRF runs is staggered such that the 0400UTC composite initializes the 0900 UTC WRF, the 0700 UTC composite initializes the 1500 UTC WRF, the 1600 UTC composite initializes the 2100 UTC WRF, and the 1900 UTC composite initializes the 0300 UTC WRF. A comparison of the SPoRT and Miami forecasts is underway in 2007, and includes quantitative verification of near-surface temperature, dewpoint, and wind forecasts at surface observation locations. In addition, particular days of interest are being analyzed to determine the impact of the MODIS SST data on the development and evolution of predicted sea/land-breeze circulations, clouds, and precipitation. This paper will present verification results comparing the NWS MIA forecasts the SPoRT experimental WRF forecasts, and highlight any substantial differences noted in the predicted mesoscale phenomena.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS2008

A Multi-Season Study of the Effects of MODIS Sea-Surface Temperatures on Operational WRF Forecasts at NWS Miami, FL

Studies at the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center have suggested that the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea-surface temperature (SST) composites in regional weather forecast models can have a significant positive impact on short-term numerical weather prediction in coastal regions. Recent work by LaCasse et al (2007, Monthly Weather Review) highlights lower atmospheric differences in regional numerical simulations over the Florida offshore waters using 2-km SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument aboard the polar-orbiting Aqua and Terra Earth Observing System satellites. To help quantify the value of this impact on NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the SPORT Center and the NWS WFO at Miami, FL (MIA) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using the high-resolution MODIS SST fields within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The project's goal is to determine whether more accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing within WRF will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. The NWS MIA is currently running WRF in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run dally initialized at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Each model run is initialized using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) analyses available in AWIPS. The SSTs are initialized with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses at 1/12deg resolution (approx.9 km); however, the RTG product does not exhibit fine-scale details consistent with its grid resolution. SPORT is conducting parallel WRF EMS runs identical to the operational runs at NWS MIA except for the use of MODIS SST composites in place of the RTG product as the initial and boundary conditions over water, The MODIS SST composites for initializing the SPORT WRF runs are generated on a 2-km grid four times daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, based on the times of the overhead passes of the Aqua and Terra satellites. The incorporation of the MODIS SST data into the SPORT WRF runs is staggered such that SSTs are updated with a new composite every six hours in each of the WRF runs. From mid-February to July 2007, over 500 parallel WRF simulations have been collected for analysis and verification. This paper will present verification results comparing the NWS MIA operational WRF runs to the SPORT experimental runs, and highlight any substantial differences noted in the predicted mesoscale phenomena for specific cases.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS2017

An Analysis of Coordinated Observations from NOAA's Ronald Brown Ship and G-IV Aircraft in a Landfalling Atmospheric River over the North Pacific During CalWater-2015

To gain a more complete observational understanding of atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the data-sparse open ocean, we used a diverse suite of mobile observing platforms deployed on NOAAs Ronald H. Brown (RHB) research vessel and G-IV research aircraft during the CalWater-2015 field campaign to describe the structure and evolution of a long-lived AR modulated by six frontal waves over the northeastern Pacific on 20-25 January 2015. Satellite observations and reanalysis diagnostics provided synoptic-scale context, illustrating the warm, moist southwesterly airstream within the quasi-stationary AR situated between an upper-level trough and ridge. The AR remained offshore of the U.S. West Coast but made landfall across British Columbia where heavy precipitation fell. Forty-seven rawinsondes launched from the RHB provided a comprehensive thermodynamic and kinematic depiction of the AR, including uniquely documenting an upward intrusion of strong water-vapor transport in the low-level moist southwesterly flow during the passage of frontal waves 2 through 6. A collocated 1290-MHz wind profiler showed an abrupt frontal transition from southwesterly to northerly flow below 1 km MSL coinciding with the tail-end of AR conditions. Shipborne radar and disdrometer observations in the AR uniquely captured key microphysical characteristics of shallow warm rain, convection, and deep mixed-phase precipitation. Novel observations of sea-surface fluxes in a midlatitude AR documented persistent ocean-surface evaporation and sensible-heat transfer into the ocean. The G-IV aircraft flew directly over the ship, with dropsonde and radar spatial analyses complementing the temporal depictions of the AR from the RHB. The AR characteristics varied, depending on the location of the cross section relative to the frontal waves.

atmospheric rivers↗

NASA NTRS2021

Distinct Surface Response to Black Carbon Aerosols

For the radiative impact of individual climate forcings, most previous studies focused on the global mean values at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), and less attention has been paid to surface processes, especially for black carbon (BC) aerosols. In this study, the surface radiative responses to five different forcing agents were analyzed by using idealized model simulations. Our analyses reveal that for greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and scattering aerosols, the surface temperature changes are mainly dictated by the changes of surface radiative heating, but for BC, surface energy redistribution between different components plays a more crucial role. Globally, when a unit BC forcing is imposed at TOA, the net shortwave radiation at the surface decreases by −5.87±0.67 W m −2 (W m −2 ) −1 (averaged over global land without Antarctica), which is partially offset by increased downward longwave radiation (2.32±0.38 W m −2 (W m −2 ) −1 from the warmer atmosphere, causing a net decrease in the incoming downward surface radiation of −3.56±0.60 W m −2 (W m −2 ) −1 . Despite a reduction in the downward radiation energy, the surface air temperature still increases by 0.25±0.08 K because of less efficient energy dissipation, manifested by reduced surface sensible (−2.88±0.43 W m −2 (W m −2 ) −1 ) and latent heat flux (−1.54±0.27 W m −2 (W m −2 ) −1 ), as well as a decrease in Bowen ratio (−0.20±0.07 (W m −2 ) −1 ). Such reductions of turbulent fluxes can be largely explained by enhanced air stability (0.07±0.02 K (W m −2 ) −1 ), measured as the difference of the potential temperature between 925 hPa and surface, and reduced surface wind speed (−0.05±0.01 m s −1 (W m −2 ) −1 ). The enhanced stability is due to the faster atmospheric warming relative to the surface, whereas the reduced wind speed can be partially explained by enhanced stability and reduced Equator-to-pole atmospheric temperature gradient. These rapid adjustments under BC forcing occur in the lower atmosphere and propagate downward to influence the surface energy redistribution and thus surface temperature response, which is not observed under greenhouse gases or scattering aerosols. Our study provides new insights into the impact of absorbing aerosols on surface energy balance and surface temperature response.

radiative impact↗

NASA NTRS2005

Analysis of Multiple Precipitation Products and Preliminary Assessment of Their Impact on Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Land Surface States

Land surface models (LSMs) are computer programs, similar to weather and climate prediction models, which simulate the stocks and fluxes of water (including soil moisture, snow, evaporation, and runoff) and energy (including the temperature of and sensible heat released from the soil) after they arrive on the land surface as precipitation and sunlight. It is not currently possible to measure all of the variables of interest everywhere on Earth with sufficient accuracy and space-time resolution. Hence LSMs have been developed to integrate the available observations with our understanding of the physical processes involved, using powerful computers, in order to map these stocks and fluxes as they change in time. The maps are used to improve weather forecasts, support water resources and agricultural applications, and study the Earth's water cycle and climate variability. NASA's Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) project facilitates testing of several different LSMs with a variety of input datasets (e.g., precipitation, plant type). Precipitation is arguably the most important input to LSMs. Many precipitation datasets have been produced using satellite and rain gauge observations and weather forecast models. In this study, seven different global precipitation datasets were evaluated over the United States, where dense rain gauge networks contribute to reliable precipitation maps. We then used the seven datasets as inputs to GLDAS simulations, so that we could diagnose their impacts on output stocks and fluxes of water. In terms of totals, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) had the closest agreement with the US rain gauge dataset for all seasons except winter. The CMAP precipitation was also the most closely correlated in time with the rain gauge data during spring, fall, and winter, while the satellitebased estimates performed best in summer. The GLDAS simulations revealed that modeled soil moisture is highly sensitive to precipitation, with differences in spring and summer as large as 45% depending on the choice of precipitation input.

Gottschalck, Jon↗

NASA NTRS2005

Evaluation of Ten Methods for Initializing a Land Surface Model

Rodell, M.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Impact of Lake Okeechobee Sea Surface Temperatures on Numerical Predictions of Summertime Convective Systems over South Florida

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, the Florida Institute of Technology, and the NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office at Miami, FL (MFL) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using high-resolution, 2-km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea surface temperature (SST) composites within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The NWS MFL is currently running WRF in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run daily initialized at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. The SSTs are initialized with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses at 1/12deg resolution. The project objective is to determine whether more accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing over water using the MODIS SST composites within the 4-km WRF runs will result in improved sea fluxes and hence, more accurate e\~olutiono f coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. SPoRT conducted parallel WRF EMS runs from February to August 2007 identical to the operational runs at NWS MFL except for the use of MODIS SST composites in place of the RTG product as the initial and boundary conditions over water. During the course of this evaluation, an intriguing case was examined from 6 May 2007, in which lake breezes and convection around Lake Okeechobee evolved quite differently when using the high-resolution SPoRT MODIS SST composites versus the lower-resolution RTG SSTs. This paper will analyze the differences in the 6 May simulations, as well as examine other cases from the summer 2007 in which the WRF-simulated Lake Okeechobee breezes evolved differently due to the SST initialization. The effects on wind fields and precipitation systems will be emphasized, including validation against surface mesonet observations and Stage IV precipitation grids.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Footprint prediction of scalar fluxes - Reliability and implications for airborne flux measurements over the FIFE site

Estimates of the location and extension of the upwind ground area that affects flux observations most directly are examined to determine the reliability of airborne versus near-ground flux measurements. The theoretical issues regarding the 'footprint' are examined, and specific observations are analyzed by studying the data over a grid regarding sensible heat, latent heat, CO2, and greenness. The grid is footprint-corrected to correlate better with independently observed surface characteristics, and an optimized footprint is developed that satisfies the relationships between the observed variables. Optimized mapping of the surface flux is given which demonstrates the importance of considering local advection to correlate airborne and ground-based flux observations. The technique is particularly applicable to situations in which significant variations in the surface flux density exist.

Schuepp, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Relating evaporative fraction to remotely sensed data at the FIFE site

Evaporative fractions at surface flux stations on the Konza Prairie are investigated by means of heat-flux estimation, evaporative fractions, and other remotely sensed parameters. Radiometric surface-temperature measurements are used to calculate sensible heat, and evaporative fraction is characterized by comparing systematic differences and consistencies at 21 stations. The evaporative fractions are related to soil and vegetation data collected concurrently with attention given to specific correlations. Little variation is found in the evaporative fraction during the day for the four periods studied, although the most significant change corresponded with the lowest values of soil moisture, leaf-area indices, and simple ratio. Uncertainties in air/surface temperature differences and in small wind speeds affect the reliability of estimates of the surface fluxes.

Gurney, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Radiation-dominated Snowmelt on Mars

A set of microclimatic conditions conducive to the generation of liquid water is being sought to see whether their requirements are any less stringent than those suggested by the global-climatic models. In particular, the melting of snow and ice in the equatorial zone (where the valley networks are preferentially situated) is investigated with a model that includes detailed infrared radiation transfer between the atmosphere and the snow, penetration of sunlight into the snow, sensible heat transfer to the atmosphere, and water vapor diffusion within the surface boundary layer. IR fluxes are calculated by using pressure and temperature dependent forms for the band absorptances of CO2 and H2O in the spectral range 50 to 2000/cm.

Clow, G. D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Turbulent transports over tundra

An extensive period of eddy correlation surface flux measurements was conducted at a site distant from the coast on the western Alaskan tundra. The surface exchange of heat and moisture over tundra during the summer was limited by a strong resistance to transfer from the upper soil layer through the ground cover, with canopy resistances to evaporation observed to be approximately 200 s/m. Though July 1988 was anomalously warm and dry in the region and August was close to normal temperature and rainfall, there was no appreciable difference in the canopy resistance between the periods. During the dry sunny period at the end of July, the observed evaporation rate was 2 mm/d. High canopy resistance led to an approximate equipartition of net radiation between latent and sensible heat, each accounting for 40 percent of the available energy, with heat balance apparently going into soil heat flux.

Fitzjarrald, David R.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Optimization of a Remote Sensing Energy Balance Method over Different Canopy Applied at Global Scale

Parameterization methods which calculate turbulent heat and water fluxes with thermal remote sensing data were evaluated in the revised remote sensing surface energy balance system (SEBS) model (Chen et al., 2013). The model calculates sensible heat (H) based on the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) and determines latent heat (LE) as the residual of energy balance. We examined the uncertainties of H and LE in the SEBS model due to five key parameters at the local station point scale. Observations at 27 flux towers located in seven land cover types (needle-leaf forest, broad leaf forest, shrub, savanna, grassland, cropland, and sparsely vegetated land) and an artificial intelligence particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm was combined to calibrate the five parameters (leaf drag coefficient, leaf heat transfer coefficients, roughness length for soil, and two parameters for ground heat calculation) in the SEBS model. The root-mean-square error at the site scale was reduced by 9 W/sq.m for H, and 92 W/sq.m for LE, and their correlation coefficients were increased by 0.07 (H) and 0.11 (LE) after using the calibrated parameters. The updated model validation was further conducted globally for the remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) calculations. Overestimation of SEBS global ET was significantly improved by using the optimized values of the parameters. The results suggested PSO was able to consistently locate the global optimum of the SEBS model, and appears to be capable of solving the ET model optimization problem.

Chen, Xuelong↗

NASA NTRS1976

Application of remote sensing in estimating evapotranspiration in the Platte river basin

A 'resistance model' and a mass transport model for estimating evapotranspiration (ET) were tested on large fields of naturally subirrigated alfalfa. Both models make use of crop canopy temperature data. Temperature data were obtained with an IR thermometer and with leaf thermocouples. A Bowen ratio-energy balance (BREB) model, adjusted to account for underestimation of ET during periods of strong sensible heat advection, was used as the standard against which the resistance and mass transport models were compared. Daily estimates by the resistance model were within 10% of estimates made by the BREB model. Daily estimates by the mass transport model did not agree quite as well. Performance was good on clear and cloudy days and also during periods of non-advection and strong advection of sensible heat. The performance of the mass transport and resistance models was less satisfactory for estimation of fluxes of latent heat for short term periods. Both models tended to overestimate at low LE fluxes.

Blad, B. L.↗

NASA NTRS1968

Sensible heat transfer in the Gemini and Apollo space suits.

Sensible heat exchange from Gemini and Apollo space suits determined in environmental test facilities, presenting data for heat flux distributions

Drake, R. M., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2008

High-Resolution Specification of the Land and Ocean Surface for Improving Regional Mesoscale Model Predictions

The exchange of energy and moisture between the Earth's surface and the atmospheric boundary layer plays a critical role in many meteorological processes. High-resolution, accurate representations of surface properties such as sea-surface temperature (SST), soil temperature and moisture content, ground fluxes, and vegetation are necessary to better understand the Earth-atmosphere interactions and improve numerical predictions of sensible weather. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been conducting separate studies to examine the impacts of high-resolution land-surface initialization data from the Goddard Space Flight Center Land Information System (LIS) on subsequent WRF forecasts, as well as the influence of initializing WRF with SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument. This current project addresses the combined impacts of using high-resolution lower boundary data over both land (LIS data) and water (MODIS SSTs) on the subsequent daily WRF forecasts over Florida during May 2004. For this experiment, the WRF model is configured to run on a nested domain with 9- km and 3-kin grid spacing, centered on the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. A control configuration of WRF is established to take all initial condition data from the NCEP Eta model. Meanwhile, two WRF experimental runs are configured to use high-resolution initialization data from (1) LIS land-surface data only, and (2) a combination of LIS data and high-resolution MODIS SST composites. The experiment involves running 24-hour simulations of the control WRF configuration, the MS-initialized WRF, and the LIS+MODIS-initialized WRF daily for the entire month of May 2004. All atmospheric data for initial and boundary conditions for the Control, LIS, and LIS+MODIS runs come from the NCEP Eta model on a 40-km grid. Verification statistics are generated at land surface observation sites and buoys, and the impacts of the high-resolution lower boundary data on the development and evolution of mesoscale circulations such as sea and land breezes are examined, This paper will present the results of these WRF modeling experiments using LIS and MODIS lower boundary datasets over the Florida peninsula during May 2004.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Mechanisms Associated with Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves over the Contiguous United States

Heat waves are extreme climate events that have the potential to cause immense stress on human health, agriculture, and energy systems, so understanding the processes leading to their onset is crucial. There is no single accepted definition for heat waves, but they are generally described as a sustained amount of time where temperature exceeds a local threshold. Multiple different temperature variables are potentially relevant, as high values of both daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures can be detrimental to human health. In this study, we focus explicitly on the different mechanisms associated with summertime heat waves manifested during daytime versus nighttime hours over the contiguous United States. Heat waves are examined using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Over 1980–2018, the increase in the number of heat wave days per summer was generally stronger for nighttime heat wave days than daytime heat wave days, with localized regions of significant positive trends. Processes linked with daytime and nighttime heat waves are identified through composite analysis of precipitation, soil moisture, clouds, humidity and fluxes of heat and moisture. Daytime heat waves are associated with dry conditions, reduced cloud cover, and increased sensible heating. Mechanisms leading to nighttime heat waves differ regionally across the US, but they are typically associated with increased clouds, humidity and/or low-level temperature advection. In the Midwest US, enhanced moisture is transported from the Gulf of Mexico during nighttime heat waves.

Extreme events↗

NASA NTRS1986

Application of solar max ACRIM data to analyze solar-driven climatic variability on Earth

Terrestrial climatic effects associated with solar variability have been proposed for at least a century, but could not be assessed quantitatively owing to observational uncertainities in solar flux variations. Measurements from 1980 to 1984 by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM), capable of resolving fluctuations above the sensible atmosphere less than 0.1% of the solar constant, permit direct albeit preliminary assessments of solar forcing effects on global temperatures during this period. The global temperature response to ACRIM-measured fluctuations was computed from 1980 to 1985 using the NYU transient climate model including thermal inertia effects of the world ocean; and compared the results with observations of recent temperature trends. Monthly mean ACRIM-driven global surface temperature fluctuations computed with the climate model are an order of magnitude smaller, of order 0.01 C. In constrast, global mean surface temperature observations indicate an approx. 0.1 C increase during this period. Solar variability is therefore likely to have been a minor factor in global climate change during this period compared with variations in atmospheric albedo, greenhouse gases and internal self-inducedoscillations. It was not possible to extend the applicability of the measured flux variations to longer periods since a possible correlation of luminosity with solar annual activity is not supported by statistical analysis. The continuous monitoring of solar flux by satellite-based instruments over timescales of 20 years or more comparable to timescales for thermal relaxation of the oceans and of the solar cycle itself is needed to resolve the question of long-term solar variation effects on climate.

Hoffert, M. I.↗