Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “scenario selection”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 451 records · Page 25

Toward an electrical power utility for space exploration

Plans for space exploration depend on today's technology programs addressing the novel requirements of space-based enterprise. The requirements for electrical power will be formidable: megawatts in magnitude, reliability for multi-year missions and the flexibility to adapt to needs unanticipated at design time. The reasons for considering the power management and distribution in the various systems from a total mission perspective, rather than simply extrapolating current spacecraft design practice, are discussed. A utility approach to electric power being developed at the Lewis Research Center is described. It integrates requirements from a broad selection of current development programs with studies in which both space and terrestrial technologies are conceptually applied to exploration mission scenarios.

Bercaw, Robert W.↗

Toward an electrical power utility for space exploration

Future electrical power requirements for space exploration are discussed. Megawatts of power with enough reliability for multi-year missions and with enough flexibility to adapt to needs unanticipated at design time are some of the criteria which space power systems must be able to meet. The reasons for considering the power management and distribution in the various systems, from a total mission perspective rather than simply extrapolating current spacecraft design practice, are discussed. A utility approach to electric power integrating requirements from a broad selection of current development programs, with studies in which both space and terrestrial technologies are conceptually applied to exploration mission scenarios, is described.

Bercaw, Robert W.↗

The production of low mass carbon stars - Carbon-rich dredge up or oxygen-rich mass loss?

Conventional theory explains the origin of carbon stars as due to dredge up of carbon enriched material from the stellar core during helium flash events late in the life of solar mass AGB stars. This relatively efficient process, however, seems to produce a larger C/O ratio than observed (Lambert et al., 1987). A secondary effect which could contribute to the appearance of carbon stars, is the selective removal of oxygen from the atmosphere by radiative force expulsion of oxygen-rich dust grains. Calculations for this scenario are presented, which evaluate the degree of momentum coupling between the grains and gas under the thermodynamical conditions of AGB star atmospheres.

Stencel, R. E.↗

Investigation of Air Transportation Technology at Ohio University, 1989-1990

The activities of the participants in the Joint University Program (JUP) at Ohio University are briefly surveyed. During 1989 to 1990, five topics received emphasis. A spectrum-efficient weather data uplink system was designed, constructed, and flight tested. An integrated Global Positioning System/Inertial Navigation System (GPS/INS) study continued, utilizing the Redundant strapdown Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) on loan from NASA. The Ridge Regression theory was refined and applied to air navigation scenarios. System Identification theory was applied to GPS data to point the way to better understanding of the effects of Selective Availability on civilian users of this navigation system. An analysis of thought-related (electroencephalographic) signals for application to control of computer systems that could have significance in aiding paraplegics or for hands-off systems control in industrial or air traffic control areas was carried out.

Lilley, Robert W.↗

The HSCT mission analysis of waverider designs

The grant provided partial support for an investigation of wave rider design and analysis with application to High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) vehicles. Proposed was the development of the necessary computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools for the direct simulation of the waverider vehicles, the development of two new wave rider design methods that would provide computational speeds and design flexibilities never before achieved in wave rider design studies, and finally the selection of a candidate waverider-based vehicle and the evaluation of the chosen vehicle for a canonical HSCT mission scenario. This, the final report, reiterates the proposed project objectives in moderate detail, and it outlines the state of completion of each portion of the study, providing references to current and forthcoming publications that resulted from this work.

Source record↗

Improved Modeling of Land-Atmosphere Interactions using a Coupled Version of WRF with the Land Information System

The exchange of energy and moisture between the Earth's surface and the atmospheric boundary layer plays a critical role in many hydrometeorological processes. Accurate and high-resolution representations of surface properties such as sea-surface temperature (SST), vegetation, soil temperature and moisture content, and ground fluxes are necessary to better understand the Earth-atmosphere interactions and improve numerical predictions of weather and climate phenomena. The NASA/NWS Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center is currently investigating the potential benefits of assimilating high-resolution datasets derived from the NASA moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Goddard Space Flight Center Land Information System (LIS). The LIS is a software framework that integrates satellite and ground-based observational and modeled data along with multiple land surface models (LSMs) and advanced computing tools to accurately characterize land surface states and fluxes. The LIS can be run uncoupled to provide a high-resolution land surface initial condition, and can also be run in a coupled mode with WRF to integrate surface and soil quantities using any of the LSMs available in LIS. The LIS also includes the ability to optimize the initialization of surface and soil variables by tuning the spin-up time period and atmospheric forcing parameters, which cannot be done in the standard WRF. Among the datasets available from MODIS, a leaf-area index field and composite SST analysis are used to improve the lower boundary and initial conditions to the LIS/WRF coupled model over both land and water. Experiments will be conducted to measure the potential benefits from using the coupled LIS/WRF model over the Florida peninsula during May 2004. This month experienced relatively benign weather conditions, which will allow the experiments to focus on the local and mesoscale impacts of the high-resolution MODIS datasets and optimized soil and surface initial conditions. Follow-on experiments will examine the utility of such an optimized WRF configuration for more complex weather scenarios such as convective initiation. This paper will provide an overview of the experiment design and present preliminary results from selected cases in May 2004.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Exploring data-driven modeling of boundary layer transition

Prediction of laminar-turbulent transition in boundary layer flows is an important component of predicting the aerodynamic performance of a number of aerospace configurations. According to the CFD Vision 2030 [1], transition modeling represents acriticalarea in CFD simulation capability that will remain a pacing item for the foreseeable future. The fact thattransition can take placevia either one of a myriad possible paths adds to the challenges inreliable transition predictions, despite a limited knowledge of the relevant input parameters. In the low disturbance environments typical of flight applications, transition is often initiated by small amplitude disturbances in the form of linear instability waves of the laminar boundary layer. These disturbances amplify linearly at first and eventually undergo a sequence of nonlinear interactions that result in transition to turbulence. Because the nonlinear phase is rather rapid, the amplification of boundary layer instabilities is governed by the linearstability theory over a majority of the distance leading up to the onset of transition. Semi-empirical transition correlations based on the linear stability theory have been successful in explaining the observed trends in transition location within a broad class of flows. However, the application of stability theory is highly non-robust and often requires a significant domain expertise. Recent work at the NASA Langley Research Center has beenaimed at bridging the gap between physics based transition analyses such as those based on linear stability theory and practical applications that require transition prediction by users that may not be well versed in transition physics. The applications of deep learning have been at the center of these efforts. This presentation will focus on the progress achieved thus far, highlighting the applications of neural networks to selectedtransition scenarios across a range of Mach numbers and flow configuration, as well as the lessons learnedand remaining challengeswithrespect to the selection of training data and neural networks architectures, hyperparameter tuning, and the physical insights distilled from the otherwise black-box models.

M. R. Malik↗

Effects of Spaceflight Relevant Carbon Dioxide Levels on Pathogenesis Related Microbial Characteristics

BACKGROUND Multiple stressors in the spaceflight environment have the potential to alter microbial pathogenesis and virulence characteristics, including microgravity, radiation, and hostile/confined conditions. This combination of factors may lead to a stacking of risks, potentially creating unexpected increase in the risk of infectious disease. One understudied variable is the higher CO2 atmospheric concentration. The current Spaceflight Maximum Allowance Concentration (SMAC) for 24-hour average CO2 is 0.4% (3 mm Hg). These elevated ambient CO2 levels aboard the ISS could potentially influence the diversity and phenotypic responses of the resident microbial communities from both the spacecraft environment (air, surface, water) and crewmembers (gut, nasal, skin microbiomes). METHODS For these studies, we will evaluate the response of Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae and Enterobacter aerogenes, which are opportunistic pathogens that are of medical significance and have been or are likely to be found aboard spacecraft. These microorganisms will be cultured in both spaceflight analog and control conditions at CO2levels representing terrestrial atmospheric concentration of 0.04% (0.3 mmHg), ISS elevated concentration of 0.4% (3 mm Hg), and an unexpected elevated concentration of 1 % (7.6 mmHg) to represent a worst case scenario. DISCUSSION Overwhelming evidence from studies performed in food microbiology, marine biology and terrestrial environmental biology suggest altered gene expression, selective bacterial inhibition, increased growth and diversity, and increased antibiotic resistance of bacterial communities individually and in biofilm formation when exposed to increased levels of CO2. While many of these findings are based on levels of CO2 higher than would be found during spaceflight exploration missions, the potential for subtle changes in CO2 levels to exacerbate infectious disease risks warrants an evaluation of pathogen responses to spaceflight CO2 conditions. Our study will provide answers to spaceflight relevant atmospheric conditions, as described in the Risk of Adverse Health Effects Due to Host-Microorganism Interaction (GapMicro 103).

A A Medina-Colorado↗

How Can Future Climate Change Affect the Corn Production System in Nebraska, USA?

The increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns have affected both crop yields and water requirements challenging agricultural systems in sustaining high crop yields and ensuring water and food security. In the present study, we evaluated the impact of climate change on the corn production under irrigated and rainfed cropping systems in Nebraska considering four climate zones until 2100 as a case study for the US Corn Belt. Additionally, suggests ways to reduce the impact of climate change on corn yield and water resources. Five global circulation model datasets from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) interconnected to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), were selected. Three future periods: near (2020–2039), mid (2040–2069), and far future (2070–2100) under SSP226, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios were used to predict the climate changes, crop cycle length, crop yield, and crop water requirement. Additionally, we input annual CO2 concentration scenarios for each SSP scenario to model changes from 2015 to 2100 using the CERES-Maize model. Temperatures are forecasted to rise, precipitation to decline, and crop cycle length to decrease, particularly for SSP370 (up to 49% yield decrease) and SSP585 (up to 67% yield decrease) by 2070–2100. Yields are expected to decline across all scenarios and periods for irrigated and rainfed fields due to the reduction in crop cycle length. Crop water demand is projected to increase, with rainfed systems facing heightened impact due to reduced precipitation. Addressing climate change in Nebraska requires actions like developing new corn varieties to longer the crop season, transitioning to efficient irrigation systems, improving irrigation management for water and food security, and reducing the risk of conflicts over its use. These results open possibilities for discussion about the actions that can be taken to cope with climate change and guarantee water and food security in the US Corn Belt.

CMIP6↗

Physical Parameters of Space Mission Asteroid Targets

Ground-based characterization of asteroids that are planned or potential targets of space missions provides important data on their physical parameters and properties. Knowledge of the properties of mission targets is important especially during mission preparation and planning, as it serves to select best or suitable targets for specific purpose of a given mission, to prepare mission plans, to constrain possible mission scenarios, and to design mission experiments. Such characterization efforts may be particularly critical for flyby missions that take only limited data during the high-speed flybys of their target asteroids, but they also provide very crucial data for targets of rendezvous missions. Moreover, long-term observations taken from Earth also allows the modelling of, or constraining, processes acting on the asteroids over extended time scales. Over the past years and decades we have obtained rich data on physical parameters of 82 asteroids that are planned or potential targets of space missions. Our primary observing technique is time-resolved (lightcurve) photometry, but we use also data obtained with other techniques, such as spectroscopy, thermal or radar observations. 15 of the 82 characterized asteroids are planned or possible targets of several space missions that are in flight or preparation, such as ESA’s Hera, RAMSES and PRIAMOS, NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX, JAXA’s Hayabusa2#, DESTINY+ and Next Generation Sample Return (NGSR), the Emirates Mission to Asteroids (EMA), and Karman+’s High Frontier, but we have also characterized 67 asteroids that are potential targets of space missions for their low delta-V’s and were announced as being “of interest to NASA” in the Small-Bodies-Observations- NASA mailing list or listed on the NHATS page of “Accessible NEAs”. The sample of asteroid targets span 3 orders of magnitude in size, with absolute magnitudes H from 12.57 to 26.8, corresponding to diameters from about 10 m to about 10 km. The sample contains a variety of taxonomic types and physically or dynamically interesting objects. Among them, we have identified 5 binary asteroids and 20 tumblers (i.e., asteroids in excited, non-principal axis rotation states). Rotation periods of the characterized asteroids range from 1.45 min to 280 h, reflecting diversity of their properties and formation/evolution paths. We will present an overview of the data set and highlight several representative cases.

Petr Pravec↗

Machine learning to predict biomass sorghum yields under future climate scenarios

Crop yield modeling is critical in the design of national strategies for agricultural production, particularly in the context of a changing climate. Forecasting yields of bioenergy crops at fine spatial resolutions can help to evaluate near-term and long-term pathways for scaling up bio-based fuel and chemical production, and for understanding the impacts of abiotic stressors such as severe droughts and temperature extremes on potential biomass supply. In this work we used a large dataset of 28,364 Sorghum bicolor yield samples (uniquely identified by county and year of observation), environmental variables, and multiple approaches to analyze historical trends in sorghum productivity across the USA. We selected the most accurate machine learning approach (a variation of the random forest approach) to predict future trends in sorghum yields under four greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios and two irrigation regimes. We identified irrigation practices, vapor pressure deficit, and time (a proxy for technological improvement) as the most important predictors of sorghum productivity. Our results showed a decreasing trend of sorghum yields over future years (on average 2.7% from 2018 to 2099), with greater decline under a high GHG emissions scenario (3.8%) and in the absence of irrigation (4.6%). Geographically, we observed the steepest predicted declines in the Great Lakes (8.2%), Upper Midwest (7.5%), and Heartland (6.7%) regions. Our study demonstrates the use of machine learning to identify environmental controllers of sorghum biomass yield and predict yields with reasonable accuracy. These results can inform the development of more realistic biomass supply projections for bioenergy if sorghum production is scaled up. (c) 2020 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Scalable Pattern Matching in Metadata Graphs via Constraint Checking

Pattern matching is a fundamental tool for answering complex graph queries. Unfortunately, existing solutions have limited capabilities: They do not scale to process large graphs and/or support only a restricted set of search templates or usage scenarios. Moreover, the algorithms at the core of the existing techniques are not suitable for today’s graph processing infrastructures relying on horizontal scalability and shared-nothing clusters, as most of these algorithms are inherently sequential and difficult to parallelize. In this article we present an algorithmic pipeline that bases pattern matching on constraint checking. The key intuition is that each vertex and edge participating in a match has to meet a set of constraints implicitly specified by the search template. These constraints can be verified independently and typically are less expensive to compute than searching the full template. The pipeline we propose generates these constraints and iterates over them to eliminate all the vertices and edges that do not participate in any match, thus reducing the background graph to a subgraph that is the union of all template matches—the complete set of all vertices and edges that participate in at least one match. Additional analysis can be performed on this annotated, reduced graph, such as full match enumeration, match counting, or computing vertex/edge centrality. Furthermore, a vertex-centric formulation for constraint checking algorithms exists, and this makes it possible to harness existing high-performance, vertex-centric graph processing frameworks. This technique (i) enables highly scalable pattern matching in metadata (labeled) graphs; (ii) supports arbitrary patterns with 100% precision; (iii) enables tradeoffs between precision and time-to-solution, while always selects all vertices and edges that participate in matches, thus offering 100% recall; and (iv) supports a set of popular data analytics scenarios. We implement our approach on top of HavoqGT, an open-source asynchronous graph processing framework, and demonstrate its advantages through strong and weak scaling experiments on massive scale real-world (up to 257 billion edges) and synthetic (up to 4.4 trillion edges) labeled graphs, respectively, and at scales (1,024 nodes / 36,864 cores), orders of magnitude larger than used in the past for similar problems. This article serves two purposes: First, it synthesises the knowledge accumulated during a long-term project. Second, it presents new system features, usage scenarios, optimizations, and comparisons with related work that strengthen the confidence that pattern matching based on iterative pruning via constraint checking is an effective and scalable approach in practice. The new contributions include the following: (i) We demonstrate the ability of the constraint checking approach to efficiently support two additional search scenarios that often emerge in practice, interactive incremental search and exploratory search. (ii) We empirically compare our solution with two additional state-of-the-art systems, Arabsque and TriAD. (iii) We show the ability of our solution to accommodate a more diverse range of datasets with varying properties, e.g., scale, skewness, label distribution, and match frequency. (iv) We introduce or extend a number of system features (e.g., work aggregation, load balancing, and the ability to cap the generated traffic) and design optimizations and demonstrate their advantages with respect to improving performance and scalability. (v) We present bottleneck analysis and insights into artifacts that influence performance. (vi) We present a theoretical complexity argument that motivates the performance gains we observe.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

IM3 SELECT Urbanization Data

IM3 SELECT Urbanization Data Urban fraction is provided in TIF files projected on the WGS84 datum at coarse (1/8 degree) and downscaled (1km) resolutions across the globe for each of three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios corresponding to SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5; and each of two population scenarios corresponding to the default population scenario and an updated population scenario with more detailed projections for the United States. The population projections are provided as CSV files. Folder structure: default_population population urban_fraction coarse SSP2 SSP3 SSP5 downscaled SSP2 SSP3 SSP5united_states_updated_population population urban_fraction coarse SSP2 SSP3 SSP5 downscaled SSP2 SSP3 SSP5 Urban fraction data was produced using the SELECT model v1.0.0 (Gao, J. & O'Neill, B.C. 2019). Default population data derived from Gao, J. & O'Neill, B.C. 2020. Original model outputs produced using the default population data are available from Gao, J. 2020. Updated United States population data derived from Zoraghein, H. & O'Neill, B.C. 2020. Other SELECT input files available at Gao, J. & O'Neill, B.C. 2022.

McManamay, Ryan↗

Biorefinery upgrading of herbaceous biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuels, Part 1: Process modeling and mass balance analysis

Process simulation has long been a well-established tool to track key operational, design, and mass and energy balance metrics for pre-commercial technologies such as advanced lignocellulosic biofuels. While tools such as this are well-documented in the public literature around 2nd-generation cellulosic ethanol technologies (which have been scaled up to commercial deployment to some degree over the past decade), such models and analysis information remain more sparse for more complex biorefinery pathways focused on producing drop-in hydrocarbon fuels and blend-stocks, particularly regarding information required to support air emissions or other environmental analysis. In this work, we summarize key details for an established "design case" modeling the conversion of herbaceous lignocellulosic biomass into a renewable diesel hydrocarbon blend-stock based on a representative lipid pathway from oleaginous yeast. The process is based on a biochemical deconstruction and upgrading approach utilizing deacetylation and dilute acid pretreatment, followed by enzymatic hydrolysis, fermentation, and catalytic upgrading of hydrolysate sugars to fuels. We provide key mass and energy balance outputs from the process models, with accompanying stream tables and component-level flowrates. A total of 12 model scenarios are presented spanning two feedstocks, three biorefinery scales, and two processing approaches for the lignin/residual solids waste streams. This "Part 1" manuscript presents the resulting impacts across the 12 cases on fuel yields and key output streams, focused here on direct biorefinery air emissions for selected components including CO 2 as well as sulfur (SOx) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). In the context of cleaner production, the latter focus on selected biorefinery air emission outputs establishes an initial baseline estimate and accompanying framework of the model cases, upon which an accompanying "Part 2" study will build to refine the values for these and other air pollutants across these scenarios, also considering mitigation options to comply with applicable regulatory standards. We also highlight further optimization opportunities based on potential tradeoffs identified here between air emissions versus life-cycle greenhouse gas profiles attributed to the disposition of lignin/residual solids.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

rmap: An R package to plot and compare tabular data on customizable maps across scenarios and time

`rmap` is an R package that allows users to easily plot tabular data (CSV or R data frames) on maps without any Geographic Information Systems (GIS) knowledge. Maps produced by `rmap` are `ggplot` objects and thus capitalize on the flexibility and advancements of the `ggplot2` package and all elements of each map are thus fully customizable. Additionally `rmap` automatically detects and produces comparison maps if the data has multiple scenarios or time periods as well as animations for time series data. Advanced users can load their own shapefiles if desired. `rmap` comes with a range of pre-built color palettes but users can also provide any `R` color palette or create their own as needed. Four different legend types are available to highlight different kinds of data distributions. The input spatial data can be both gridded or polygon data. `rmap` is desgined in particular for comparing spatial data across scenarios and time periods and comes preloaded with standard country, state, and basin maps as well as custom maps compatible with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) spatial boundaries. `rmap` has a growing number of users and its products have been used in multiple multisector dynamics publications as well as a required dependency in other R packages such as `rfasst` and `metis`. `rmap's` automatic processing of tabular data using pre-built map selection, difference map calculations, faceting, and animations offers unique functionality which makes it a powerful and yet simple tool for users looking to explore multi-sector, multi-scenario data across space and time.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Biochemical Conversion of Herbaceous Biomass to Renewable Diesel: Net Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Trade-offs

This study examines greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CAP) emissions trade-offs for renewable diesel across 12 scenarios, involving different biochemical conversion designs, biorefinery scales, and feedstocks. A conventional design uses lignin for on-site heat and power, which exports excess power to the grid. An alternative design exports lignin pellets, offsetting other pellet production methods but requiring grid electricity to meet biorefinery power demands. Net emissions were quantified in Iowa and Georgia, selected considering feedstock availability, coproduct displacement, and regional power grids, assuming grid-exported power avoids coal or low-carbon electricity. Results for the conventional design remained consistent across the electricity displacement scenarios. When comparing lignin utilization strategies, pelletizing lignin reduces sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and volatile organic compounds (net emissions –0.66 mg MJ –1 , 25 mg MJ –1 , 25 mg MJ –1 , 7.8 mg MJ –1 , respectively). However, lignin pelletization increases net particulate matter (fine and coarse) and ammonia (net emissions of 4.7 mg MJ –1 , 13 mg MJ –1 , and 0.26 mg MJ –1 , respectively), alongside indirect GHG emissions due to grid electricity dependence. Additionally, processing 2000 tonnes corn stover daily minimizes emissions for both designs. Only lignin pelletization with renewable electricity and additional particulate matter and ammonia controls reduces all CAP and GHG emissions simultaneously.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Designing robust energy policy packages under deep uncertainty: A multi-metric decision support framework

The complexity of transitioning to sustainable energy systems requires policy frameworks capable of balancing multiple objectives while addressing deep uncertainty. However, existing approaches often lack systematic methods to identify combinations of policy levers that remain effective across a wide range of uncertain futures. This paper presents a novel decision support framework that guides the selection of robust policy packages based on their performance across multiple objectives under uncertainty. Our method leverages a large ensemble of scenarios and applies scenario discovery techniques to identify influential policy levers. Here, we introduce new indicators to assess the robustness of policies by evaluating their ability to mitigate adverse outcomes across metrics. These indicators support an iterative process to build a robust policy package. Finally, we map the technological and energy pathways associated with the robust policy package by leveraging an energy system optimization model. We illustrate the application of this framework to the Spanish energy system, providing insights into how specific combinations of policy levers shape decarbonization pathways under uncertainty.

Decision-support method↗