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At least 451 records · Page 25

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Theory Manual (V.6.15)

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis (V.6.16 User's Manual)

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the Dakota software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.16 Theory Manual

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota’s iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Global analysis peak fitting for chemical spectroscopy data

The present invention relates to methods for analyzing a chemical sample. For instance, the methods herein allow for global analysis of spectroscopy data in order to extract useful chemical properties from complicated multidimensional data. Such analysis can optionally employ data compression to further expedite computer-implemented computation. In particular, the methods herein provide global analysis of data matrices explained by both linear and non-linear terms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Deep learning–driven rare-event sampling reveals an Ala7/d-Ala8 conformational hinge governing amphiphilic switching in cyclosporine A

Passive membrane permeability of N-methylated macrocyclic peptides remains poorly understood because high-energy conformational intermediates are rarely sampled by conventional methods. Using the deep learning–driven rare-event sampling framework ES-CRUMPLE, we show that cyclosporine A accesses transient amphiphilic states via a localized conformational hinge at Ala7/d-Ala8, revealing a kinetic design handle that is invisible to population-based analyses.

Lindberg, Edward T [University of Tennessee, Knoxv↗

Conservative Estimation of Tail Probabilities from Limited Sample Data

Several sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are compared for conservative but not overly conservative estimation of small tail probabilities involving responses that lay beyond specified thresholds in the tails of probability distributions. Sixteen very differently shaped distributions (or probability density functions, PDFs) and tail probability magnitudes ranging from 10 -5 to 10 -1 are considered in order for the study to be relevant to a wide range of risk analysis and quantification of margins and uncertainty (QMU) problems. The emphasis of the study is on limited data regimes ranging from N = 2 to 20 samples, reflective of most experimental and some expensive computational situations. Relatively simple sparse-sample UQ methods tested for this regime involve statistical tolerance interval "Equivalent Normal and related "Ensemble of Normals" and "Superdistribution (SD) approaches. (The independently derived SD is effectively equivalent to the Bayesian posterior predictive distribution given the assumptions of the derivation.) The performance of the methods was generally improved for N ≥ 5 samples with a generalized Jackknife resampling technique, which determines a tail probability estimate by averaging estimates from smaller sub-samples. Several quantitative metrics for method conservatism and accuracy of tail probability estimation are used to assess and rank the methods' performance over many random trials for each test PDF and probability magnitude. A variant of Bootstrap resampling was also tried, but did not significantly improve tail probability estimates in most cases. Detailed results are presented from over 100-million tests over the above factors that provide useful granular information on which methods or combination of methods perform best in various areas of the factor space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ambient Mass Spectrometry Rapid Analysis Methods for Trace Inorganics

The ability to rapidly detect and characterize the chemistry of trace quantities of inorganic species has multiple potential applications, including nuclear safeguards, nuclear forensics, and environmental monitoring. Some mass spectrometric methods currently exist, but they are costly and time-intensive, often destroying chemical information in the process of ionization. Ambient mass spectrometry is a relatively new analytical method in which samples are introduced to the mass spectrometer from atmospheric pressure, rather than from high vacuum. Ambient MS can operate with gentler ionization methods such as electrospray ionization (ESI) and paper-spray ionization (PSI), reducing fragmentation and preserving the chemical information of the analyte. This may be useful for determining the intended purpose of material in a sample. Strontium, part of nuclear fallout, is analyzed here to test these new analytical methods for viability. Electrospray ionization mass spectrometry functions by spraying the sample as a solution through a needle charged to a few kV. A nebulizing gas flows out along with the sample to create the spray before droplets enter a drying chamber with heated drying gas to remove the solvent molecules. From there bare analyte ions enter the mass spectrometer. This method has the advantage of relatively fast sample preparation and stable ionization. More stable ionization produces higher-quality data. Paper-spray ionization mass spectrometry operates by applying sample to a paper triangle. The paper triangle is then electrified in a metal clamp to a few kV before spray solvent is applied. The spray solvent transports analyte in the sample to the tip, where it is ionized and enters the mass spectrometer. One advantage of this method is reduced sample preparation - an analyst can even swipe a surface and cut a triangle directly from the swipe. The data analysis serves to rapidly process tens of samples all at once. The mass spectrometer outputs a file containing a few hundred spectra for each sample. The pipeline processes each one to identify peaks of interest. A full palette of data analysis metrics are generated, including plots of the raw data and plots of calculated values such as isotopic ratios. The pipeline filters the raw data to remove noise and background peaks, as well as peaks representing detector saturation. A heat map is generated to show the overall spectrum in mass-time- intensity space. Post-processing, we obtained the desired calibration curves, demonstrating that both ESI-MS and PSI-MS are viable methods for quantifying trace amounts of inorganics while retaining their chemical speciation information. ESI-MS demonstrated a linear response region of 100 ppb to 20 ppm, with a limit-of-detection of around 100 ppb. At top left is an example spectrum with the {sup 88}SrNO{sub 3} peak identified to show the retention of chemical speciation. PSI-MS showed a linear response region of around 1 ppb to 1 ppm, with a limit-of-detection of near 1 ppb. PSI-MS produced more erratic results than ESI-MS, likely due to the variability in ionization resulting from manual positioning of the paper triangle near the MS inlet. Future efforts will focus on improving the repeatability of PSI-MS as well as analyzing other species of interest such as cerium and uranium. Improvements will also be made to create more reliable data extraction and intelligent data filtering.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

An organogel library for solution NMR analysis of nanoparticle suspensions in non-aqueous samples

Surface contrast solution NMR methods (scNMR) are emerging as powerful tools to investigate the adsorption of small molecule ligands to the surface of nanoparticles (NP), returning fundamental insight into the kinetics and thermodynamics of sorption, as well as structural information on the adsorbed species. A prerequisite for the acquisition of high quality solution NMR data is the preparation of homogeneous and stable samples that return consistent NMR spectra and allow extensive signal averaging. Unfortunately, this condition does not apply to NMR samples containing NPs that often show a tendency to sediment and accumulate at the bottom of the NMR tube over the course of the experiment. We have recently shown that preparing NMR samples in an agarose gel matrix inhibits sedimentation and allows the characterization of small molecule-NP interactions by scNMR. Unfortunately, as the agarose gel only forms in aqueous solution, this sample preparation method cannot be used to stabilize NP suspensions in a non-aqueous environment. In this work, we introduce a library of 48 organogels, based on low molecular-mass organic gelators (LMOGs), to prepare NMR samples of small molecule/NP systems in a wide range of organic solvents. In addition, we present a simple method that takes advantage of 1H transverse relaxation (1H-R2) measurements to screen the library and identify the best gelator to characterize the small molecule-NP interaction of interest in the solvent of choice. We expect the results of this study will enable the preparation of homogeneous and stable samples of NPs in non-aqueous environments, therefore dramatically increasing the applicability of scNMR to the characterization of heterogeneous interactions and to the investigation of the role played by solvent molecules in regulating the kinetics and thermodynamics of sorption.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Milestone Report on Microstructure of Irradiated Sensors and Coupling Adhesive Bonds

This report describes the ORNL aspects of an NSUF project in collaboration between EPRI, ORNL, and NCSU. Preliminary characterizations at ORNL LAMDA laboratory on piezoelectric sensors and bonds before and after NCSU PULSTAR reactor irradiation. Five pre-irradiation and seven post-irradiation samples have been examined by scanning electron microscopy and related methods so far. Samples consisted of (Pb,Bi)(Sc,Ti)O 3 or LiNbO 3 ceramics. Bonding layers consisted of epoxy, zirconia, alumina, aluminosilicate, or a complex soda-lime type slurry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Stochastic economic dispatch of wind power under uncertainty using clustering-based extreme scenarios

Operation of power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy sources requires tools for robust decision making under uncertainty. Stochastic economic dispatch and stochastic unit commitment are effective techniques for planning and operation under uncertainty, whose effectiveness depends on the cardinality and quality of the scenario set. Here, this article proposes a machine learning method using -means clustering for capturing relevant physical information from a large population of analog scenarios. Extreme scenario samples drawn from the clusters are used in a two-stage stochastic economic dispatch computation. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is assessed on a synthetic 200-bus system with a geographic footprint over Illinois, USA for four months from each season of WIND Toolkit data. The combination of -means clustering with importance sampling is shown to reduce the total operational cost by over 43% compared to sampling from populations based on heuristic clustering-based methods. Additionally, the variability in the mean cost is about 56% lower than the variability using Monte Carlo sampling. Moreover, the operational cost with the presented approach is shown to be close to the cost calculated based on a hindsight exact wind profile, signifying a highly accurate quantification of wind uncertainty by the presented -means clustering based sampling method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Comparison of two culture methods for the enumeration of Legionella pneumophila from potable water samples

Legionella infections have steadily increased in the United States over the last 20 years, and most of these infections have been attributed to contaminated water. The gold standard for confirmation of Legionella presence in water is culturing with Buffered Charcoal Yeast Extract (BCYE) agar. Following many modifications, this method is still time-consuming, expensive, and can take longer than 10 days for full confirmation. The Legiolert is a newer and simpler culture product that is claimed to be able to quantify Legionella pneumophila in 7 days with high sensitivity and specificity and does not need further confirmation for the presence of L. pneumophila. This study compared the culturability of L. pneumophila occurring in a simulated home plumbing system using both Legiolert and BCYE agar methods. Out of 185 water samples, Legiolert and BCYE method detected L. pneumophila in 83 and 85% of the samples, respectively. The two methods were determined to be statistically equivalent for culturability of L. pneumophila, though the detected levels by Legiolert were slightly higher than the BCYE method. The molecular confirmation of positive (n = 254) and negative wells (n = 82) with Legiolert also showed a high specificity of 96.5% (i.e., 3.5% false positives (9/254) and 0% false negatives (0/82)).

Boczek, Laura A.↗

MethodOpt: a Shiny-based graphical user interface for multivariate optimization of sampling and analytical instrumentation

Method optimization is an important step in producing useful data in various experimental settings involving the use of sampling and analytical instrumentation, such as gas-chromatography mass-spectrometry or other analytical techniques. However, traditional optimization techniques often lack the sophistication of more modern optimization techniques developed in areas of applied mathematics. A graphical user interface has been developed that implements a multivariate, multi-objective optimization technique for spectra-generating sampling and analytical instrumentation, which saves substantial time and resources compared to the more traditional approaches to method development.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A comparison of cost and quality of three methods for estimating density for wild pig (Sus scrofa)

A critical element in efective wildlife management is monitoring the status of wildlife populations; however, resources to monitor wildlife populations are typically limited. We compared cost efectiveness of three common population estimation methods (i.e. non-invasive DNA sampling, camera sampling, and sampling from trapping) by applying them to wild pigs (Sus scrofa) across three habitats in South Carolina, U.S.A where they are invasive. We used mark-recapture analyses for fecal DNA sampling data, spatially-explicit capture-recapture analyses for camera sampling data, and a removal analysis for removal sampling from trap data. Density estimates were similar across methods. Camera sampling was the least expensive, but had large variances. Fecal DNA sampling was the most expensive, although this technique generally performed well. We examined how reductions in efort by method related to increases in relative bias or imprecision. For removal sampling, the largest cost savings while maintaining unbiased density estimates was from reducing the number of traps. For fecal DNA sampling, a reduction in efort only minimally reduced costs due to the need for increased lab replicates while maintaining high quality estimates. For camera sampling, efort could only be marginally reduced before inducing bias. We provide a decision tree for researchers to help make monitoring decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accelerated statistical failure analysis of multifidelity TRISO fuel models

Statistical nuclear fuel failure analysis is critical for the design and development of advanced reactor technologies. Although Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is a standard method of statistical failure analysis for fuels, the low failure probabilities of some advanced fuel forms and the correspondingly large number of required model evaluations limit its application to low-fidelity (e.g., 1-D) fuel models. In this paper, we present four other statistical methods for fuel failure analysis in Bison, considering tri-structural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel as a case study. The statistical methods considered are Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), adaptive importance sampling (AIS), subset simulation (SS), and the Weibull theory. Using these methods, we analyzed both 1-D and 2-D representations of TRISO models to compute failure probabilities and the distributions of fuel properties that result in failures. The results of these methods compare well across all TRISO models considered. Overall, SS and the Weibull theory were deemed the most efficient, and can be applied to both 1-D and 2-D TRISO models to compute failure probabilities. Moreover, since SS also characterizes the distribution of parameters that cause TRISO failures, and can consider failure modes not described by the Weibull criterion, it may be preferred over the other methods. Finally, a discussion on the efficacy of different statistical methods of assessing nuclear fuel safety is provided.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

SAS PDF: pair distribution function analysis of nanoparticle assemblies from small-angle scattering data

SASPDF, a method for characterizing the structure of nanoparticle assemblies (NPAs), is presented. The method is an extension of the atomic pair distribution function (PDF) analysis to the small-angle scattering (SAS) regime. The PDFgetS3 software package for computing the PDF from SAS data is also presented. An application of the SASPDF method to characterize structures of representative NPA samples with different levels of structural order is then demonstrated. The SASPDF method quantitatively yields information such as structure, disorder and crystallite sizes of ordered NPA samples. The method was also used to successfully model the data from a disordered NPA sample. The SASPDF method offers the possibility of more quantitative characterizations of NPA structures for a wide class of samples.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Overview of recent turbulence studies across multiple confinement modes at the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak using the Correlation Electron Cyclotron Emission diagnostic

This work presents an overview of recent and ongoing experimental measurements of core and edge turbulence across multiple confinement regimes using the Correlation Electron Cyclotron Emission (CECE) diagnostic at the ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) tokamak. A common goal among these investigations is to identify how the properties of the turbulent electron temperature fluctuations measured by CECE influence and regulate the unique transport characteristics of each confinement regime, including L-mode, I-mode, ELMy H-mode, and ELM-free H-mode. Optics and signal processing methods to aid in the analysis and interpretation of experimental turbulence results are also presented. These methods, and particularly the down-sampling and ensemble averaging method, are relevant to a wide variety of fusion and non-fusion applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗