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NASA NTRS1998

X-ray Spectra of Distant Clusters

The masses of galaxy clusters are dominated by dark matter, and a robust determination of their temperatures and masses has the potential of indicating how much dark matter exists on large scales in the universe, and the cosmological parameter Omega. X-ray observations of galaxy clusters provide a direct measure of both the gas mass in the intra-cluster medium, and also the total gravitating mass of the cluster. We used new and archival ASCA and ROSAT observations to measure these quantities for a sample of intermediate redshift clusters which have also been subject to intensive dynamical studies, in order to compare the mass estimates from different methods. We used data from 12 of the CNOC cluster sample at 0.18 less than z less than 0.55 for this study. A direct comparison of dynamical mass estimates from Carlberg, Yee & Ellingson (1997) yielded surprisingly good results. The X-ray/dynamical mass ratios have a mean of 0.96+/- 0.10, indicating that for this sample, both methods are probably yielding very robust mass estimates. Comparison with mass estimates from gravitational lensing studies from the literature showed a small systematic with weak lensing estimates, and large discrepancies with strong lensing estimates. This latter is not surprising, given that these measurements are made close to the central core, where optical and Xray estimates are less certain, and where substructure and the effects of individual galaxies will be more pronounced. These results are presented in Lewis, Ellingson, Morris \& Carlberg, 1998, submitted to the Astrophysical Journal.

Ellingson, E.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC yr−1 for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC yr−1). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC/yr for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC/yr). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

land use and land cover change↗

NASA NTRS1983

Discrimination Relative to Measures of Non-Normality

The robustness of discriminant functions to nonnormality is investigated. The performance of procedures relative to measures of the difference between the actual distribution of the observations and the usual assumption of normal densities is assessed. For example, the two population, mixed distributions problem with equal costs of misclassification are considered. The parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood and recently proposed robust methods.

Smith, W. B.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Robust inference of ecosystem soil water stress from eddy covariance data

Eddy covariance data are invaluable for determining ecosystem water use strategies under soil water stress. However, existing stress inference methods require numerous subjective data processing and model specification assumptions whose effect on the inferred soil water stress signal is rarely quantified. These uncertainties may confound the stress inference and the generalization of ecosystem water use strategies across multiple sites and studies. In this research, we quantify the sensitivity of soil water stress signals inferred from eddy covariance data to the prevailing data and modeling assumptions (i.e., their robustness) to compile a comprehensive list of sites with robust soil water stress signals and assess the performance of current stress inference methods. To accomplish this, we identify the most prevalent assumptions from the literature and perform a digital factorial experiment to extract probability distributions of plausible soil water stress signals and model performance at 151 FLUXNET2015 and AmeriFlux-FLUXNET sites. Here, we develop a new framework that summarizes these probability distributions to classify and rank the robustness of each site’s soil water stress signal, which we display with a user-friendly heat map. We estimate that only 5%–36% of sites exhibit a robust soil water stress signal due to deficient model performance and poorly constrained ecosystem water use parameters. We also find that the lack of robustness is site-specific, which undermines grouping stress signals by broad ecosystem categories or comparing results across studies with differing assumptions. Lastly, existing stress inference methods appear better suited for eddy covariance sites with grass/annual vegetation. Our findings call for more careful and consistent inference of ecosystem water stress from eddy covariance data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

National Aeronautics and Space Administration Budget Estimates, Fiscal Year 2011

The Budget includes three new robust exploration programs: (1) Technology demonstration program, $7.8 five years. Funds the development and demonstration of technologies that reduce the cost and expand the capabilities of future exploration activities, including in-orbit refueling and storage. (2) Heavy-Lift and Propulsion R&D, $3.1 billion over five years. Funds R&D for new launch systems, propellants, materials, and combustion processes. (3) Robotic precursor missions, $3.0 billion over five years. Funds cost-effective means to scout exploration targets and identify hazards and resources for human visitation and habitation. In addition, the Budget enhances the current Human Research Program by 42%; and supports the Participatory Exploration Program at 5 million per year for activities across many NASA programs.

Civil space programs↗

NASA NTRS2018

Quantifying Boreal Forest Structure and Composition Using UAV Structure from Motion

The vast extent and inaccessibility of boreal forest ecosystems are barriers to routine monitoring of forest structure and composition. In this research, we bridge the scale gap between intensive but sparse plot measurements and extensive remote sensing studies by collecting forest inventory variables at the plot scale using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a structure from motion (SfM) approach. At 20 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) subplots in interior Alaska, we acquired overlapping imagery and generated dense, 3D, RGB (red, green, blue) point clouds. We used these data to model forest type at the individual crown scale as well as subplot-scale tree density (TD), basal area (BA), and aboveground biomass (AGB). We achieved 85% cross-validation accuracy for five species at the crown level. Classification accuracy was maximized using three variables representing crown height, form, and color. Consistent with previous UAV-based studies, SfM point cloud data generated robust models of TD (r(sup 2) = 0.91), BA (r(sup 2) = 0.79), and AGB (r(sup 2) = 0.92), using a mix of plot- and crown-scale information. Precise estimation of TD required either segment counts or species information to differentiate black spruce from mixed white spruce plots. The accuracy of species-specific estimates of TD, BA, and AGB at the plot scale was somewhat variable, ranging from accurate estimates of black spruce TD (+/−1%) and aspen BA (−2%) to misallocation of aspen AGB (+118%) and white spruce AGB (−50%). These results convey the potential utility of SfM data for forest type discrimination in FIA plots and the remaining challenges to develop classification approaches for species-specific estimates at the plot scale that are more robust to segmentation error.

aboveground biomass↗

NASA NTRS1992

A real-time recursive filter for the attitude determination of the Spacelab instrument pointing subsystem

A real-time estimation filter which reduces sensitivity to system variations and reduces the amount of preflight computation is developed for the instrument pointing subsystem (IPS). The IPS is a three-axis stabilized platform developed to point various astronomical observation instruments aboard the shuttle. Currently, the IPS utilizes a linearized Kalman filter (LKF), with premission defined gains, to compensate for system drifts and accumulated attitude errors. Since the a priori gains are generated for an expected system, variations result in a suboptimal estimation process. This report compares the performance of three real-time estimation filters with the current LKF implementation. An extended Kalman filter and a second-order Kalman filter are developed to account for the system nonlinearities, while a linear Kalman filter implementation assumes that the nonlinearities are negligible. The performance of each of the four estimation filters are compared with respect to accuracy, stability, settling time, robustness, and computational requirements. It is shown, that for the current IPS pointing requirements, the linear Kalman filter provides improved robustness over the LKF with less computational requirements than the two real-time nonlinear estimation filters.

West, M. E.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Statistical Tests for Diagnosing Fission Source Convergence and Undersampling in Monte Carlo Criticality Calculations [Slides]

There is a very strong need for statistical testing to determine fission source convergence in Monte Carlo criticality calculations. Automation of such tests will greatly streamline and support the work carried out by NCS practitioners. Recent R&D work has shown that no single statistical test for convergence is sufficiently reliable, robust, and “guaranteed.” However, a combination of several standard statistical tests for the similarity of distributions, coupled with a high-fidelity estimate of the fission-matrix source is sufficiently robust, reliable, and repeatable that convergence can be “guaranteed.” During the course of the EG-AMCT studies, a number of statistical metrics and tests were proposed for diagnosing clustering and undersampling. None of these was robust and reliable enough for practical use in production codes. However, the expert group efforts came close. Some recent R&D work stemming from those past efforts has been very successful and promising. This Sub-Group will provide international input and collaboration on the development and implementation of statistical tests for convergence, with the primary goal of having the MC codes automatically detect convergence (or lack thereof). Newly proposed statistical tests to detect undersampling (after convergence) will also be reviewed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1991

Correlation techniques to determine model form in robust nonlinear system realization/identification

The fundamental challenge in identification of nonlinear dynamic systems is determining the appropriate form of the model. A robust technique is presented which essentially eliminates this problem for many applications. The technique is based on the Minimum Model Error (MME) optimal estimation approach. A detailed literature review is included in which fundamental differences between the current approach and previous work is described. The most significant feature is the ability to identify nonlinear dynamic systems without prior assumption regarding the form of the nonlinearities, in contrast to existing nonlinear identification approaches which usually require detailed assumptions of the nonlinearities. Model form is determined via statistical correlation of the MME optimal state estimates with the MME optimal model error estimates. The example illustrations indicate that the method is robust with respect to prior ignorance of the model, and with respect to measurement noise, measurement frequency, and measurement record length.

Stry, Greselda I.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Observability and Estimation of Distributed Space Systems via Local Information-Exchange Networks

In this work, we develop an approach to formation estimation by explicitly characterizing formation's system-theoretic attributes in terms of the underlying inter-spacecraft information-exchange network. In particular, we approach the formation observer/estimator design by relaxing the accessibility to the global state information by a centralized observer/estimator- and in turn- providing an analysis and synthesis framework for formation observers/estimators that rely on local measurements. The noveltyof our approach hinges upon the explicit examination of the underlying distributed spacecraft network in the realm of guidance, navigation, and control algorithmic analysis and design. The overarching goal of our general research program, some of whose results are reported in this paper, is the development of distributed spacecraft estimation algorithms that are scalable, modular, and robust to variations inthe topology and link characteristics of the formation information exchange network. In this work, we consider the observability of a spacecraft formation from a single observation node and utilize the agreement protocol as a mechanism for observing formation states from local measurements. Specifically, we show how the symmetry structure of the network, characterized in terms of its automorphism group, directly relates to the observability of the corresponding multi-agent system The ramification of this notion of observability over networks is then explored in the context of distributed formation estimation.

observability↗

DOE OSTI2021

Performance Comparison of Circular and Spherical Error Probable Estimators

This report compares the performance of three Circular Error Probable (CEP) estimators: the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator, a new, non-iterative, radial-integration estimator, and a median estimator. It also compares the performance of two Spherical Error Probable (SEP) estimators. The performance of each estimator is assessed in terms of bias, uncertainty, robustness, and computational complexity. Robustness is evaluated with respect to outliers, variations in the underlying statistical distribution characterizing munition impact positions, and impact-position measurement errors. The performance assessments indicate the radial-integration and Grubbs-Patnaik estimators perform nearly identically providing the statistical distribution of impact-position coordinates is jointly normal with zero means. In that case, both estimators outperform the median estimator by about 2% relative to the true CEP in terms of estimator uncertainty. The bias performance of the radial-integration and median estimators is close to zero for jointly normal impacts, however, the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator can be significantly biased for jointly normal impacts with non-zero means. When the statistical distribution characterizing impact positions is known, but not jointly normal, the radial-integration estimator is superior. In this case, the median estimator also outperforms the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator but is not quite as good as the radial-integration estimator. If the statistical distribution characterizing impacts is unknown and not jointly normal, or if distribution parameters are difficult or impractical to estimate, or if test data is corrupted with outliers, then the median estimator dramatically outperforms the other estimators, especially in terms of estimation bias. Unexpectedly, measurement noise did not significantly degrade the performance of any of the estimators, except for cases with signal to noise ratios less than five. Although the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator has remained the gold standard for CEP estimation for over half a century, the performance assessments indicate the new, non-iterative, radial-integration estimator and the median estimator offer significant advantages and, in most practical real-world conditions, are superior estimators. These estimators are also useful for SEP estimation whereas the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator does not extend to three dimensions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1982

Lateral control system design for VTOL landing on a DD963 in high sea states

The problem of designing lateral control systems for the safe landing of VTOL aircraft on small ships is addressed. A ship model is derived. The issues of estimation and prediction of ship motions are discussed, using optimal linear linear estimation techniques. The roll motion is the most important of the lateral motions, and it is found that it can be predicted for up to 10 seconds in perfect conditions. The automatic landing of the VTOL aircraft is considered, and a lateral controller, defined as a ship motion tracker, is designed, using optimal control techniqes. The tradeoffs between the tracking errors and the control authority are obtained. The important couplings between the lateral motions and controls are demonstrated, and it is shown that the adverse couplings between the sway and the roll motion at the landing pad are significant constraints in the tracking of the lateral ship motions. The robustness of the control system, including the optimal estimator, is studied, using the singular values analysis. Through a robustification procedure, a robust control system is obtained, and the usefulness of the singular values to define stability margins that take into account general types of unstructured modelling errors is demonstrated. The minimal destabilizing perturbations indicated by the singular values analysis are interpreted and related to the multivariable Nyquist diagrams.

Bodson, M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Parameter Estimation for Electrode Degradation: Learning in the Face of Model-Experiment Discrepancies

Use of physics-based models to interpret battery degradation data over the course of cycling can provide deeper physical insight into the internal states of the system and how they evolve. We present a neural network trained on simulations generated by a previously published physics-based model for a lithium trivanadate (LVO) cathode to estimate parameters that evolve over the course of cycling. We focus on the robustness of the neural network through two case studies that probe different kinds of discrepancies between model and experiment: nonideal data and imperfect model. In the former, the experimental protocols do not meet the assumption made in the training data generated by the physics-based model, while in the latter, the physics-based model fails to describe all of the measured cathode behavior even under ideal conditions. When there is total model-experiment agreement, a neural network estimates parameters with improved accuracy compared to a maximum likelihood analysis using the same set of simulations. However, in both types of model-experiment discrepancy, the neural network returned biased parameter estimates. We introduce a data augmentation procedure into the neural network training to mitigate these effects and improve robustness, and employ it to estimate parameters for a cycling LVO cathode.

Mayilvahanan, Karthik S. (ORCID:0000000316282332)↗

NASA NTRS1984

Modeling clear-air turbulence with vortices using parameter-identification techniques

A vortex model of winds associated with clear-air turbulence (CAT) is shown to be useful for characterizing actual airline CAT encounters. The model consists of an array of vortices with solid-body cores embedded in a potential flow field. Parameters such as the size and strength of the vortices and their locations are identified using a modified Newton-Raphson algorithm. A manual identification start-up scheme is used to minimize errors in the initial parameter estimates, and the identification algorithm is found to be robust in regard to the remaining errors. The analysis of a CAT encounter involving a commercial airliner demonstrates the success of the model and estimation procedure. The analysis finds vortices with core diameters of 1000 ft and tangential velocities of 87 ft/sec in this encounter.

Mehta, R. S.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Brownian bridge-based speed imputation technique for truck energy consumption and emissions estimation

The available truck Global Positioning System (GPS) data, typically collected with large time gaps, rely on imputation techniques to obtain second-by-second data that are required in models for estimating truck energy consumption and emissions. However, existing speed imputation techniques either require a large amount of high-resolution data for model training or rely on special movement assumptions. Here, to fill the gap and effectively apply the low-resolution truck GPS datasets, this paper proposes a simple imputation technique that adopts the Brownian bridge structure to impute missing speed data. The proposed technique introduces a feasible imputation region and a combined drift into the imputation procedure to capture vehicle acceleration constraint, travel distance constraint, and speed volatility. The calibrated model is applied to a set of low-resolution truck GPS data. The results demonstrate the robustness of the proposed technique in enhancing estimation accuracy when using low-resolution GPS data to estimate fuel consumption and emissions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

ReLU, Sparseness, and the Encoding of Optic Flow in Neural Networks

Accurate self-motion estimation is critical for various navigational tasks in mobile robotics. Optic flow provides a means to estimate self-motion using a camera sensor and is particularly valuable in GPS- and radio-denied environments. The present study investigates the influence of different activation functions—ReLU, leaky ReLU, GELU, and Mish—on the accuracy, robustness, and encoding properties of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) trained to estimate self-motion from optic flow. Our results demonstrate that networks with ReLU and leaky ReLU activation functions not only achieved superior accuracy in self-motion estimation from novel optic flow patterns but also exhibited greater robustness under challenging conditions. The advantages offered by ReLU and leaky ReLU may stem from their ability to induce sparser representations than GELU and Mish do. Our work characterizes the encoding of optic flow in neural networks and highlights how the sparseness induced by ReLU may enhance robust and accurate self-motion estimation from optic flow.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2000

Parametric Modeling and Fault Tolerant Control

Fault tolerant control is considered for a nonlinear aircraft model expressed as a linear parameter-varying system. By proper parameterization of foreseeable faults, the linear parameter-varying system can include fault effects as additional varying parameters. A recently developed technique in fault effect parameter estimation allows us to assume that estimates of the fault effect parameters are available on-line. Reconfigurability is calculated for this model with respect to the loss of control effectiveness to assess the potentiality of the model to tolerate such losses prior to control design. The control design is carried out by applying a polytopic method to the aircraft model. An error bound on fault effect parameter estimation is provided, within which the Lyapunov stability of the closed-loop system is robust. Our simulation results show that as long as the fault parameter estimates are sufficiently accurate, the polytopic controller can provide satisfactory fault-tolerance.

Wu, N. Eva↗