Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “reliability study”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

A Bayesian Framework for Reliability Analysis of Spacecraft Deployments

Deployable subsystems are essential to mission success of most spacecraft. These subsystems enable critical functions including power, communications and thermal control. The loss of any of these functions will generally result in loss of the mission. These subsystems and their components often consist of unique designs and applications for which various standardized data sources are not applicable for estimating reliability and for assessing risks. In this study, a two stage sequential Bayesian framework for reliability estimation of spacecraft deployment was developed for this purpose. This process was then applied to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Sunshield subsystem, a unique design intended for thermal control of the Optical Telescope Element. Initially, detailed studies of NASA deployment history, "heritage information", were conducted, extending over 45 years of spacecraft launches. This information was then coupled to a non-informative prior and a binomial likelihood function to create a posterior distribution for deployments of various subsystems uSing Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling. Select distributions were then coupled to a subsequent analysis, using test data and anomaly occurrences on successive ground test deployments of scale model test articles of JWST hardware, to update the NASA heritage data. This allowed for a realistic prediction for the reliability of the complex Sunshield deployment, with credibility limits, within this two stage Bayesian framework.

Evans, John W.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Reliability assurance of aircraft structures

The procedures for assuring high reliability in aircraft structures are studied. Consideration is given to a statistical approach, airworthiness specifications, and their impact. Reliability of inspections and reliability in composite structures are outlined.

Hardrath, H. F.↗
DOE OSTI2026

India Power Sector Reliability Analysis [Slides]

The objective of the study is to assess pathways for India to achieve its 2070 power sector goals reliably and cost-effectively by considering various supply- and demand-side factors to support planning by national stakeholders including the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

COVID-19 Lead Time: Evaluating the timeliness and reliability of reported COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations as leading indicators of hospitalizations and death in the US

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a reliance on real-time data sources to understand the global spread and impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Reported cases were presumed leading indicators for hospitalizations, while hospitalizations were considered predictive of deaths. However, studies have questioned the consistency of reported cases as leading indicators. This study systematically assesses the reliability of United States (US) reported cases and hospitalizations as leading indicators for hospitalizations and deaths respectively, examining the first 2.5 years of the pandemic (January 2020 - June 2022) across different phases of the pandemic and states. Using correlation analysis, population data, and forecasting accuracy measures, we investigate the temporal relationships and identify possible determinants of lead time variability. Notably, we found that the average lead time between reported cases and hospitalizations across US states is relatively short at 1.76 days, implying that reported cases might not be as effective a leading indicator for hospitalizations as previously believed. Populations with higher comorbidity burdens, such as proportion of smokers, are expected on average to have shorter lead times, possibly due to shorter time to hospitalization among these vulnerable populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Probabilistic Deep Learning Methods for Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Bias Correction

Climate models often exhibit biases in their precipitation predictions, particularly underestimating high-intensity events and overestimating low precipitation. Deep learning approaches offer promising solutions, but their epistemic uncertainty associated with a deep learning–based bias correction method has not previously been quantified for reliable downstream climate impact studies. While methods for capturing the epistemic uncertainty in deep learning frameworks exist, there is currently no consensus on the best method. In this work, we compare three uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods—Deep Ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), and Flipout—by assessing the reliability of their uncertainty estimates using standard measures such as sharpness and calibration. These UQ methods are applied to an existing deep learning precipitation bias correction model known as UFNet: a coupled U-Net and fully connected neural network. The methods utilized to assess the models’ uncertainties are 1) calibration, which ensures that the expected probabilities of the model align with reality and 2) sharpness, which is a measure of the precision of the model’s probabilistic predictions. Of the three UQ methods evaluated, the DEns and MCD methods demonstrated the best-calibrated performance (expected calibration error of 0.36 and 0.35, respectively), compared to Flipout (0.58). In contrast, Flipout had the sharpest predictions and the highest metric performance in bias correcting precipitation—especially for higher-order moments such as kurtosis with a spatial correlation of 72% compared to 32% and 55% spatial correlation for DEns and MCD, respectively. Of the three UQ methods, MCD was found to be the most suitable method for UQ purposes based on its calibration, sharpness, and computational requirements.

Bayesian methods↗
NASA NTRS2002

Packaging Technology for SiC High Temperature Circuits Operable up to 500 Degrees Centigrade

New high temperature low power 8-pin packages have been fabricated using commercial fabrication service. These packages are made of aluminum nitride and 96 percent alumina with Au metallization. The new design of these packages provides the chips inside with EM shielding. Wirebond geometry control has been achieved for precise mechanical tests. Au wirebond samples with 45 degree heel-angle have been tested using wireloop test module. The geometry control improves the consistency of measurement of the wireloop breaking point.Also reported on is a parametric study of the thermomechanical reliability of a Au thick-film based SiC die-attach assembly using nonlinear finite element analysis (FEA) was conducted to optimize the die-attach thermo-mechanical performance for operation at temperatures from room temperature to 500 degrees Centigrade. This parametric study centered on material selection, structure design and process control.

Chen, Lian-Yu↗
NASA NTRS1989

Summary and evaluation of the Strategic Defense Initiative Space Power Architecture Study

The Space Power Architecture Study (SPAS) identified and evaluated power subsystem options for multimegawatt electric (MMWE) space based weapons and surveillance platforms for the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) applications. Steady state requirements of less than 1 MMWE are adequately covered by the SP-100 nuclear space power program and hence were not addressed in the SPAS. Four steady state power systems less than 1 MMWE were investigated with little difference between them on a mass basis. The majority of the burst power systems utilized H(2) from the weapons and were either closed (no effluent), open (effluent release) or steady state with storage (no effluent). Closed systems used nuclear or combustion heat source with thermionic, Rankine, turboalternator, fuel cell and battery conversion devices. Open systems included nuclear or combustion heat sources using turboalternator, magnetohydrodynamic, fuel cell or battery power conversion devices. The steady state systems with storage used the SP-100 or Star-M reactors as energy sources and flywheels, fuel cells or batteries to store energy for burst applications. As with other studies the open systems are by far the lightest, most compact and simplist (most reliable) systems. However, unlike other studies the SPAS studied potential platform operational problems caused by effluents or vibration.

Edenburn, M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

COMMIT in 7-SEAS/BASELInE: Operation of and Observations from a Novel, Mobile Laboratory for Measuring In-Situ Properties of Aerosols and Gases

Trace gases and aerosols (particularly biomass-burning aerosols) have important implications for air quality and climate studies in Southeast Asia (SEA). This paper describes the purpose, operation, and datasets collected from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's (NASA/GSFC) Chemical, Optical, and Microphysical Measurements of In-situ Troposphere (COMMIT) laboratory, a mobile platform designed to measure trace gases and optical/microphysical properties of naturally occurring and anthropogenic aerosols. More importantly, the laboratory houses a specialized humidification system to characterize hygroscopic growth/enhancement, a behavior that affects aerosol properties and cloud-aerosol interactions and is generally underrepresented in the current literature. A summary of the trace gas and optical/microphysical measurements is provided, along with additional detail and analysis of data collected from the hygroscopic system during the 2015 Seven South-East Asian Studies (7-SEAS) field campaign. The results suggest that data from the platform are reliable and will complement future studies of aerosols and air quality in SEA and other regions of interest.

aerosols↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nonconvex Robust Optimization for the Design and Operation of Advanced Energy Systems Using PyROS

This work discusses recent advances of the two-stage robust optimization (RO) solver PyROS and applications to advanced energy systems optimization. To demonstrate the computational performance and reliability of PyROS, a study on a monoethanolamine (MEA)-based CO2 absorption flowsheet is presented. (Near-)robust feasible designs for CO2 absorption flowsheet at high carbon capture are obtained with the PyROS solver. The results demonstrate that the PyROS solver, including recent extensions to multi-stage RO settings, provides a reliable avenue to optimize the design and operation of advanced energy systems subject to various sources of parametric uncertainty.

Sherman, Jason↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantum-Inspired Power System Reliability Assessment

To enable an in-depth study of power system operation and planning, the assessment of standard reliability indices is inevitable. The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) approach is a broadly used method in replacing the analytical methods in reliability indices assessment. The accuracy of MCS, however, highly depends on the sampling size, and hence, a complicated system with large number of components requires a large sampling size and daunting computational effort. To address this shortcoming, we, in this paper attempt to take advantage of potentials of the quantum computing (QC) for power system reliability assessment by realizing the following contributions: 1) an innovative quantum model designed for reliability assessment; 2) a quantum circuit that achieves the quadratic speed up compared to the classical MCS method; 3) an efficient quantum amplitude estimation (QAE) algorithm to accurately evaluate the reliability indices. The accuracy and efficacy of the quantum reliability method are extensively verified and demonstrated on both radial and mesh distribution systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Photonic Doppler Velocimetry for Valve Analysis and Surveillance

This study is an experimental evaluation to measure and surveil the velocity of stainless steel (Carpenter 455) pistons within a forged 21-6-9 stainless steel valve body. The velocity of the piston “stroke” will be identified using Photonic Doppler Velocimetry (PDV). The piston velocity will be the measured variable of interest. The outcome of this testing series provides further understanding to whether the extracted piston velocity can provide enough information to determine valve integrity. PDV has been identified as a diagnostic of interest as it can detect surface motion at high speeds with reliable accuracy. Through preliminary studies conducted with velocity interferometer system for any reflector (VISAR), the velocity of the piston is expected to stroke with a speed of 135 m/s. The PDV technique is much more reliable and repeatable than the VISAR technique because of its high-speed precision and accuracy, so it will not only validate the preliminary data, but also provide a testing technique that is capable of being used in future valve qualification efforts. The initial testing was completed using valves that were assembled per qualified procedures in a pristine condition. These initial tests were conducted to provide baseline data. This baseline data was then compared to data collected from valves where man-made defects were introduced. These defects are discussed in later sections. Lastly, actuators used to operate the valves were loaded with varied amounts of high explosives to identify if velocity is a function of the amount of explosive in an actuator. These parameters were adjusted to conclusively determine and identify if PDV can be used as a method to assess valve integrity. It was concluded through the testing discussed in this paper that in fact, PDV is capable of measuring the differences in piston velocities based on varied parameters. As far as understanding the PDV accuracy of the measured differences, this is ongoing and will have to be assessed in continued testing series.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2004

Image-Based Computational Fluid Dynamics in Blood Vessel Models: Toward Developing a Prognostic Tool to Assess Cardiovascular Function Changes in Prolonged Space Flights

One of NASA's objectives is to be able to perform a complete, pre-flight, evaluation of cardiovascular changes in astronauts scheduled for prolonged space missions. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has shown promise as a method for estimating cardiovascular function during reduced gravity conditions. For this purpose, MRI can provide geometrical information, to reconstruct vessel geometries, and measure all spatial velocity components, providing location specific boundary conditions. The objective of this study was to investigate the reliability of MRI-based model reconstruction and measured boundary conditions for CFD simulations. An aortic arch model and a carotid bifurcation model were scanned in a 1.5T Siemens MRI scanner. Axial MRI acquisitions provided images for geometry reconstruction (slice thickness 3 and 5 mm; pixel size 1x1 and 0.5x0.5 square millimeters). Velocity acquisitions provided measured inlet boundary conditions and localized three-directional steady-flow velocity data (0.7-3.0 L/min). The vessel walls were isolated using NIH provided software (ImageJ) and lofted to form the geometric surface. Constructed and idealized geometries were imported into a commercial CFD code for meshing and simulation. Contour and vector plots of the velocity showed identical features between the MRI velocity data, the MRI-based CFD data, and the idealized-geometry CFD data, with less than 10% differences in the local velocity values. CFD results on models reconstructed from different MRI resolution settings showed insignificant differences (less than 5%). This study illustrated, quantitatively, that reliable CFD simulations can be performed with MRI reconstructed models and gives evidence that a future, subject-specific, computational evaluation of the cardiovascular system alteration during space travel is feasible.

Chatzimavroudis, George P.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Software Reliability 2002

In FY01 we learned that hardware reliability models need substantial changes to account for differences in software, thus making software reliability measurements more effective, accurate, and easier to apply. These reliability models are generally based on familiar distributions or parametric methods. An obvious question is 'What new statistical and probability models can be developed using non-parametric and distribution-free methods instead of the traditional parametric method?" Two approaches to software reliability engineering appear somewhat promising. The first study, begin in FY01, is based in hardware reliability, a very well established science that has many aspects that can be applied to software. This research effort has investigated mathematical aspects of hardware reliability and has identified those applicable to software. Currently the research effort is applying and testing these approaches to software reliability measurement, These parametric models require much project data that may be difficult to apply and interpret. Projects at GSFC are often complex in both technology and schedules. Assessing and estimating reliability of the final system is extremely difficult when various subsystems are tested and completed long before others. Parametric and distribution free techniques may offer a new and accurate way of modeling failure time and other project data to provide earlier and more accurate estimates of system reliability.

Wallace, Dolores R.↗
NASA NTRS1986

SRB/SLEEC (Solid Rocket Booster/Shingle Lap Extendible Exit Cone) feasibility study, volume 2. Appendix A: Design study for a SLEEC actuation system

The results are presented of a design feasibility study of a self-contained (powered) actuation system for a Shingle Lap Extendible Exit Cone (SLEEC) for Transportation System (STS). The evolution of the SLEEC actuation system design is reviewed, the final design concept is summarized, and the results of the detailed study of the final concept of the actuation system are treated. A conservative design using proven mechanical components was established as a major program priority. The final mechanical design has a very low development risk since the components, which consist of ballscrews, gearing, flexible shaft drives, and aircraft cables, have extensive aerospace applications and a history of proven reliability. The mathematical model studies have shown that little or no power is required to deploy the SLEEC actuation system because acceleration forces and internal pressure from the rocket plume provide the required energies. A speed control brake is incorporated in the design in order to control the rate of deployment.

Thompson, D. S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced HVAC Humidity Control for Hot-Humid Climates

During this project we develop and validate a cost-effective, integrated control solution to improve humidity control and comfort for energy-efficient homes in hot-humid climates. This study focuses on developing a strategy that is effective, field tested, and practical for builders to install with minimal disruption to standard practices. A successful solution would simplify the transition to high-performance humidity control and be the basis for design and installation guidance. By relying on the central system as a starting point, the strategy employed minimizes system complexity and cost for builders, while improving comfort and operating cost for homeowners. The solution strategy was to coordinate the cooling, dehumidification, and ventilation functions of central, ducted HVAC systems to better control indoor humidity, improve occupant thermal comfort, and capture energy savings. The primary strategic goals were to: (1) optimize dehumidification by the central air-conditioning system, particularly during part-load conditions, using conventional equipment with modified control settings and lower system airflows; (2) maximize ventilation during heating/cooling on-cycles, to “bank” and condition outdoor ventilation air, and minimize ventilation during off-cycles; (3) quantify the effectiveness and energy impact of the dehumidification and ventilation strategies, while identifying a metric that would be useful to evaluate latent effectiveness. For the test houses in our study, located in Richmond Hill, Georgia; Houston, Texas; and Monroe, Louisiana we observed: (1) the indoor humidity did not exceed 60% RH during the monitored cooling season for 99% of the time in Richmond Hill, 96% of the time in Houston, and 90% of the time in Monroe; (2) the dehumidification strategy improved the steady-state latent capacity of the HVAC system at design conditions by 16% to 49% at the Houston test house and by 28% to 71% at the Monroe test house, depending on which mode the system was operating in; and (3) the good results at the test houses were primarily due to the amount of time the air-conditioning system operated in ramping or dehumidification modes, or both, particularly during the early cooling season. This study demonstrates that air conditioners or heat pumps with a single-stage compressor can provide good humidity control without the need for a two-stage or variable-stage compressor system. The airflow and control settings for ramping and dehumidification modes are critical to control indoor humidity in hot-humid climates, particularly during part-load and shoulder season conditions. The dehumidification strategy used in this study did not jeopardize the mechanical reliability of the cooling equipment. The strategies used in this study are applicable across various equipment brands, models, and efficiency levels, and also applicable to a broad range of homes in hot-humid climates. Results will vary by specific equipment, location, and house configuration and construction.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1989

A decomposition-based design optimization method with applications

A two-level design optimization metholology is described. A progress report of its application to Printed Wiring Board (PWB) assembly examples is given. The design of PWB assemblies is a complex task which is generally conducted as a sequential process. Individual PWBs are usually designed first, followed by the composition of the PWBs into an assembly. As a result, optimizing design considerations such as assembly reliability cannot be accomplished. This study showed that a two-level decomposition method can be employed to optimize for reliability at both the PWB- and the assembly-level in a coupled manner. The two-level decomposition method also resolved the mixed-integer nonlinear programming nature of the problem rather easily.

Azarm, Shapour↗
NASA NTRS2011

Qualification of emerging point-of-load regulators for next generation power systems

As demand for high-speed, on-board, digital-processing integrated circuits (ICs) on spacecraft increases (FPGAs and DSPs in particular), the need for the next generation point-of-load (POL) regulator becomes a prominent design issue. Shrinking process nodes have resulted in core rails dropping to values close to 1.0 V, drastically reducing margin to standard switching converters or regulators that power digital ICs. The objectives of this study are to first identify reliability issues or additional space reliability requirements that might not be addressed for commercial application of POL converters; second, to study the performances of existing or emerging POL converters (including linear regulators) within a practical two-stage power distribution architecture; and, finally, to identify points of failure at extreme temperatures (low and high) beyond specifications.

Leon, Rosa↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reliability-Informed Economic and Energy Evaluation for Design for Remanufacturing: A Case Study on a Hydraulic Manifold

Design for Remanufacturing (DfRem) is an attractive approach for sustainable product development. Evaluation of DfRem strategies, from both economic and environmental perspectives, at an early design stage can allow the designers to make informed decisions when choosing the best design option. Studying the long-term implications of a particular design scenario requires quantifying the benefits of remanufacturing for multiple life cycles while considering the reliability of the product. In addition to comparing designs on a one-to-one basis, we find that including reliability provides a different insight into comparing design strategies. We present a reliability-informed cost and energy analysis framework that accounts for product reliability for multiple remanufacturing cycles within a certain warranty policy. The variation of reuse rate over successive remanufacturing cycles is formulated using a branched power-law model which provides probabilistic scenarios of reusing or replacing with new units. To demonstrate the utility of this framework, we use the case study of a hydraulic manifold, which is a component of a transmission used in some agricultural equipment, and use real-world field reliability data to quantify the transmission’s reliability. Three design improvement changes are proposed for the manifold and we quantify the costs and energy consumption associated with each of the design changes for multiple remanufacturing cycles.

design for remanufacturing↗