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At least 451 records · Page 25

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗

Feasibility of using thermal response methods for nonintrusive compressed air flow measurement

Robust, low-cost nonintrusive flow meters are of interest in many industries. Particularly, a reliable nonintrusive flow measurement for the diagnosis of air leaks in compressed air systems is desirable. Measurement of the air flow due to leaks in the system ensures an accurate estimation of potential cost and energy savings. This study evaluates a novel method of using thermal responses to nonintrusively measure leakage rates in compressed air lines. The method uses heat and the resulting thermal response to calculate the flow rate inside the compressed air line. Compared to the current methods for flow measurement, this method can simplify flow measurement while decreasing the sensitivity to errors when measuring flow rates. In this study, the methodology of the proposed method is explained along with the potential advantages to the design. Two approaches are evaluated: a dynamic step response and sinusoidal frequency response. Simulated tests evaluate the feasibility of the proposed methods, followed by experiments that validate the simulation results. A clear correlation between the thermal step response and the flow rate indicate viability of the proposed method in simulation. Experimental results yielded similar results, confirming the validity of the proposed method. The results of a field test in an industrial environment demonstrate the capability of the approach to other flow rate measurement techniques.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Benchmarking of Solar Irradiance Nowcast Performance Derived from All-Sky Imagers

Fluctuations of the incoming solar irradiance impact the power generation from photovoltaic and concentrating solar thermal power plants. Accurate solar nowcasting becomes necessary to detect these sudden changes of generated power and to provide the desired information for optimal exploitation of solar systems. In the framework of the International Energy Agency's Photovoltaic Power Systems Program Task 16, a benchmarking exercise has been conducted relying on a bouquet of solar nowcasting methodologies by all-sky imagers (ASI). In this paper, four ASI systems nowcast the Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) with a time forecast ranging from 1 to 20 min during 28 days with variable cloud conditions spanning from September to November 2019 in southern Spain. All ASIs demonstrated their ability to accurately nowcast GHI, with RMSE ranging from 6.9% to 18.1%. Under cloudy conditions, all ASIs' nowcasts outperform the persistence models. Under clear skies, three ASIs are better than persistence. Discrepancies in the observed nowcasting performance become larger at increasing forecast horizons. The findings of this study highlight the feasibility of ASIs to reliably nowcast GHI at different sky conditions, time intervals and horizons. Such nowcasts can be used either to estimate solar power at distant times or detect sudden GHI fluctuations.

all-sky imagers↗

Machine Learning–Based Condition Monitoring of a Circulating Water System of a Canadian Nuclear Plant

With the need to maintain long-term reliable energy using nuclear power plants, there is an underlying demand to ensure that the maintenance of plant components and systems is also done in an efficient and cost-effective manner. One way to achieve this is by moving from time-based maintenance to condition-based maintenance. The research presented in this paper focuses on applying statistical and machine-learning-based methods to capture anomalies within data for fault detection to further develop into condition monitoring. This paper focuses on system data for a circulating water system (CWS) of a pressurized heavy-water reactor for detecting anomalies. The different methodologies used for detecting and capturing anomalies in the CWS data are matrix profile, density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN), and support vector machines (SVMs). Matrix profile and DBSCAN are used to distinguish between normal data and anomalous data. This paper presents a hybrid method using DBSCAN and SVM when a portion of the data is used for DBSCAN to generate clusters. This portion of data is then used to train the SVM along with the clusters generated by DBSCAN as output. SVM is then tested on unseen data as a predictive tool, which can work in real time to categorize data points as either normal or anomalous. This paper presents results that show the high accuracies of DBSCAN and SVM in capturing anomalies within the data for a CWS for fault detection. Thus, the maintenance plan would be focused on component condition rather than a time-based schedule by switching to an automated system to identify and predict faults within a CWS.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A Review of Quantum Computing Technologies in Power System Optimization

As modern power grids increasingly integrate variable renewable generation, distributed energy resources, and energy storage systems, classical optimization techniques are facing unprecedented challenges. This review examines the emerging application of quantum computing to overcome these challenges in power system optimization, including optimal power flow (OPF), unit commitment (UC), economic dispatch (ED), and intelligent switching and topology optimization (IS-TO). Recent research has introduced various quantum methodologies—such as gate-based, annealing-based, variational algorithms, and quantum-inspired algorithms—to address the combinatorial complexity inherent in grid reconfiguration and energy management. The review summaries the quantum algorithms, quantum devices and the power system test cases, highlighting hybrid quantum–classical strategies that leverage the complementary strengths of both paradigms. Some quantum advantages have been observed, including theoretical speedup, accurate simulation results, scalable qubit usage, efficient QUBO mapping. In particular, the review emphasizes the importance of integrating quantum optimization techniques with classical control frameworks, these hybrid approaches demonstrate the potential to improve real-time grid management and operational reliability. A significant portion of the analysis is devoted to the practical limitations of current quantum devices. Present-day quantum hardware, operating in the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era, remains highly sensitive to noise and limited in qubit connectivity, which constrains the scale and accuracy of implemented algorithms. The review delves into specific challenges such as the need for qubit-efficient encoding techniques and error mitigation strategies that are critical for handling real-world grid optimization problems. In addition, the work draws attention to the performance discrepancies between theoretical quantum speedups and experimental validations, underscoring the importance of rigorous benchmark studies using representative power grid test cases. In summary, this review highlights both the promise and limitations of quantum computing for power system optimization. It provides a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art technologies, categorizes recent advancements in algorithm design, and discusses practical considerations for implementation, and serves as an informative resource on current research. Future research directions include developing robust hybrid frameworks, advancing qubit-efficient formulations, and scaling up experimental demonstrations to confirm the theoretical advantages of quantum methods in large-scale power system operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Insights into Methodologies and Operational Details of Resource Adequacy Assessment: A Case Study with Application to a Broader Flexibility Framework

Assessing and maintaining resource adequacy (RA) is a core pillar of power systems. However, recent changes in the physical makeup of these systems and the conditions under which these systems must operate have yielded a renewed interest in the methods, metrics, and assumptions that underpin RA assessments. In this paper, we systematically explore a wide range of RA modeling dimensions, including: the objective function and level of operational detail in the underlying model formulation; the quantity (look-ahead) and quality (accuracy) of data that is available for making operational decisions within those models; and the physical configuration of solar photovoltaics (PV) with battery storage hybrid resources. We apply a set of probabilistic RA tools and production cost modeling tools to a realistic test system based loosely on a future Electric Reliability Council of Texas power system dominated by solar PV resources. Under the assumptions of our system and models, we find that multi-stage probabilistic assessments may provide a more robust evaluation of RA by capturing a wider range of operational and system interactions, but this comes at a computational cost of 1-2 orders of magnitude longer run time depending on the specific configuration. In addition, the information on thermal generator availability impacts RA performance by an order of magnitude more than solar resource forecasts, which is driven by the comparatively larger magnitude of thermal outages than solar forecast errors within our test system. Lastly, the flexibility provided by hybrid and other resources can help reduce system load-shedding event frequencies and enable the system to be more robust to inaccurate forecast information, and alternative hybrid inverter sizes can impact RA levels by 1-2 orders of magnitude. Our results point to the importance of a broader flexibility framework to describe the interaction between (1) flexibility "supply" from both physical resource capabilities and operational constraints considered in the modeling, and (2) flexibility "demand" from forecast errors, thermal generator outages, and other sources of uncertainty, as well as their RA impacts. Results are likely sensitive to the system buildout explored; future work could consider additional system configurations and conditions.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗

Reliable p K a Prediction through Efficient Incorporation of Anharmonicity within the Nuclear–Electronic Orbital Framework

Accurate pK a prediction is critical for understanding chemical reactivity and molecular properties across a wide range of applications. Computational approaches usually invoke a harmonic treatment of the vibrational modes for zero-point energies, as well as thermal and entropic contributions. Herein, we present a general protocol for relative pK a prediction that incorporates the significant anharmonic effects using nuclear–electronic orbital (NEO) theory. This protocol is validated against experimental data for a range of molecules in acetonitrile, including protonated nitrogen bases, nitrophenols, anilines, and diamines, as well as cobalt electrocatalysts. For simple acids, the NEO approach offers only a slight improvement over conventional density functional theory with the standard harmonic vibrational treatment, whereas for hydrogen-bonded acids, the NEO approach offers more significantly improved performance at a comparable computational cost. This accessible methodology provides a practical route for accurate pKa prediction in challenging systems and is extendable to related thermodynamic properties such as hydricities and proton-coupled redox potentials.

Density functional theory↗

Polarized target nuclear magnetic resonance measurements with deep neural networks

Continuous-wave Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (CW-NMR) operated in constant-current mode has served as a foundational technique for polarization measurement in solid-state dynamically polarized targets within nuclear and high-energy physics experiments for several decades, and it remains an essential tool. Conventional Q-meter-based phase-sensitive detection is critical for precise real-time determination of target polarization during scattering runs. However, the accuracy and reliability of these measurements are frequently compromised by elevated noise levels, baseline drift, and systematic uncertainties arising from signal isolation and fitting, ultimately degrading the overall experimental figure of merit. In this work, we report the first successful application of neural network architectures to continuous-wave NMR polarization metrology. By leveraging advanced machine learning techniques for signal extraction and denoising, we achieve a substantial reduction of fitting uncertainties under a variety of realistic simulated and experimental conditions. These improvements translate directly into more robust real-time (online) polarization monitoring and higher precision in subsequent offline analysis. By reducing analysis-induced uncertainty, the resulting methodology can improve the effective figure of merit for scattering experiments employing dynamically polarized targets and provides a new toolset for NMR-based polarimetry in high-energy and nuclear physics.

Metrology↗

Transforming Aeration Energy in Water Resource Recovery Facilities (WRRFs) through Suboxic Nitrogen Removal (Final Report)

The objective of this project was to advance two key technological components—aeration control strategies and process design methodologies—to support the development and broader adoption of suboxic biological nitrogen removal (SBNR). The project focused on achieving the following three goals: • Enhance Model Predictive Control (MPC) Technology: Advance the DO/Nmaster MPC platform from its initial 2018 pilot deployment at the Chico Water Resource Recovery Facility in California to full-scale integration. This included partnering with a blower technology commercialization partner and incorporating machine learning (ML) capabilities to enable nationwide deployment. • Bridge Knowledge Gaps in SBNR Process Design: Address fundamental gaps in SBNR process understanding through controlled pilot-scale testing at a dedicated pilot facility. These efforts supported the development of robust kinetic models to inform reliable SBNR control, operational strategies, and design frameworks. • Demonstrate Full-Scale Implementation of Low DO/SBNR with ML: Transition low dissolved oxygen (DO)/SBNR coupled with ML from pilot-scale trials to full-scale demonstration in flow-through biological nutrient removal (BNR) systems, with the goal of enabling scalable, nationwide adoption in activated sludge treatment processes. The project included demonstration of SBNR at the pilot scale as performed by Hampton Roads Sanitation District (HRSD) and at the full-scale as performed by the Los Angeles County Sanitation Districts' (LACSD) Pomona Water Reclamation Plant (POWRP).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

First-Principles Cost Analysis of Advanced High-Temperature Nuclear Plants

Due to the vast number of recent nuclear reactor innovations, particularly those pertaining to generation IV reactor types like high-temperature gas cooled reactors (HTGRs) and sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs), and the newer deployment strategies envisioned, such as use of small modular reactors (SMRs) or even microreactors, reliable, detailed, and complete costs of these nuclear innovations are needed in wide availability. The types of models that generally achieve these objectives are those incorporating the fundamental nature of the real-world systems they aspire to predict, such as first-principles models. Furthermore, first principles models typically offer predictiveness that is not attained by most other types of individual-models. However, detailed, first-principles cost modeling of nuclear reactors and entire nuclear plants is relatively limited. To address this limitation in the availability of detailed, predictive models based on fundamentals, we recently developed a range of cost models, mostly based on first-principles methodologies, to project full lifecycle costs (LCCs) of nuclear power plants (NPPs) based on multiple parallel SM-HTG-pebble bed reactors (PBRs) and SM-SFRs.

Prosser, Jacob H. [Strategic Analysis, Inc., Arlin↗

First-Principles Cost Analysis of Advanced High-Temperature Nuclear Plants

Due to the vast number of recent nuclear reactor innovations, particularly those pertaining to generation IV reactor types like high-temperature gas cooled reactors (HTGRs) and sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs), and the newer deployment strategies envisioned, such as use of small modular reactors (SMRs) or even microreactors, reliable, detailed, and complete costs of these nuclear innovations are needed in wide availability. The types of models that generally achieve these objectives are those incorporating the fundamental nature of the real-world systems they aspire to predict, such as first-principles models. Furthermore, first principles models typically offer predictiveness that is not attained by most other types of individual-models. However, detailed, first-principles cost modeling of nuclear reactors and entire nuclear plants is relatively limited. To address this limitation in the availability of detailed, predictive models based on fundamentals, we recently developed a range of cost models, mostly based on first-principles methodologies, to project full lifecycle costs (LCCs) of nuclear power plants (NPPs) based on multiple parallel SM-HTG-pebble bed reactors (PBRs) and SM-SFRs.

Prosser, Jacob H. [Strategic Analysis, Inc., Arlin↗

Phase-resolving spin-wave microscopy using infrared strobe light

The need for sensitively and reliably probing magnetization dynamics has been increasing in various contexts such as studying novel hybrid magnonic systems, in which the spin dynamics strongly and coherently couple to other excitations, including microwave photons, light photons, or phonons. Recent advances in quantum magnonics also highlight the need for employing the magnon phase as quantum state variable, which is to be detected and mapped out with high precision in on-chip micro- and nanoscale magnonic devices. Here, in this study, we demonstrate a facile optical technique that can directly perform concurrent spectroscopic and imaging functionalities with spatial and phase resolutions, using infrared strobe light operating at 1550-nm wavelength. To showcase the methodology, we spectroscopically studied the phaseresolved spin dynamics in a bilayer of Permalloy and yttrium iron garnet Y 3 Fe 5 O 12 (YIG), and spatially imaged the backward-volume spin-wave modes of YIG in the dipolar spin-wave regime. Using the strobe light probe, the detected precessional phase contrast can be directly used to construct the map of the spin wave's wave front, in the continuous-wave regime of spin-wave propagation and in the stationary state, without needing any optical reference path. By selecting the applied field, frequency, and detection phase, the spin-wave images can be made sensitive to the precession amplitude and phase. Our results demonstrate that infrared optical strobe light can serve as a versatile platform for magneto-optical probing of magnetization dynamics, with potential implications in investigating hybrid magnonic systems.

Xiong, Yuzan [University of North Carolina, Chapel↗

Transmission Data-Driven User-Defined Model for Inverter-based and Conventional Power Plants

Recent events in Odessa [1], [2] have shed light on the complexities of integrating large Inverter-Based Resource (IBR) plants with the transmission system, prompting NERC to stress continuous performance monitoring by transmission operators. Challenges such as plant control updates, IBR model revisions, Phase-locked loop loss of synchronism, and protection events have been identified, underscoring the need for enhanced monitoring protocols by regulatory bodies. The recent FERC 901 order underscores the importance of accurate data exchange regarding IBRs for reliability studies. However, limited access to IBR plant-related data hampers effective decision-making for transmission operators (TOP). This paper proposes a method for constructing data-driven User-Defined dynamic Models (UDM) for power plants for validating multiple-event data using field measurements from interconnection bus locations. The problem is formulated as a power plant model identification problem and a multi-task learning approach under partial input observability assumptions is proposed in this work. This approach aims to predict aggregated responses of conventional and IBR power plants during various dynamic physical events which is useful for planning studies under diverse disturbance conditions. Ultimately, this methodology emphasizes the importance of plant visibility to operators in addressing power system challenges, facilitating improved planning and operational studies.

Mahapatra, Kaveri [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗

Investigating the electronic structure of high explosives with X-ray Raman spectroscopy

Abstract We investigate the sensitivity and potential of a synergistic experiment-theory X-ray Raman spectroscopy (XRS) methodology on revealing and following the static and dynamic electronic structure of high explosive molecular materials. We show that advanced ab-initio theoretical calculations accounting for the core-hole effect based on the Bethe-Salpeter Equation (BSE) approximation are critical for accurately predicting the shape and the energy position of the spectral features of C and N core-level spectra. Moreover, the incident X-ray dose typical XRS experiments require can induce, in certain unstable structures, a prominent radiation damage at room temperature. Upon developing a compatible cryostat module for enabling cryogenic temperatures ( $$\approx$$ ≈ 10 K) we suppress the radiation damage and enable the acquisition of reliable experimental spectra in excellent agreement with the theory. Overall, we demonstrate the high sensitivity of the recently available state-of-the-art X-ray Raman spectroscopy capabilities in characterizing the electronic structure of high explosives. At the same time, the high accuracy of the theoretical approach may enable reliable identification of intermediate structures upon rapid chemical decomposition during detonation. Considering the increasing availability of X-ray free-electron lasers, such a combined experiment-theory approach paves the way for time-resolved dynamic studies of high explosives under detonation conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Real-Time Regional PV Spinning Reserve Estimator with AGC Look-Ahead Windows

Curtailed PV generation is a zero-marginal cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. However, unlike the traditional spinning reserve providers, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, who have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate forecasts of the PV PHL are essential. A novel reference-control grouping based scaling method has been proposed by NREL to estimate the PV PHL in real-time. This work further enhances the methodology by: 1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; 2) considering look-ahead windows introduced by the computation and communication latencies; 3) applying the method to regional spinning reserve estimation. A significant performance improvement, over 99% of estimation error reduction, has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO and PV plant operators.

potential high limit↗

Real-Time Regional PV Spinning Reserve Estimator with AGC Look-Ahead Windows: Preprint

Curtailed PV generation is a zero-marginal cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. However, unlike the traditional spinning reserve providers, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, who have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate forecasts of the PV PHL are essential. A novel reference-control grouping based scaling method has been proposed by NREL to estimate the PV PHL in real-time. This work further enhances the methodology by: 1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; 2) considering look-ahead windows introduced by the computation and communication latencies; 3) applying the method to regional spinning reserve estimation. A significant performance improvement, over 1.6% of estimation error reduction, has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO and PV plant operators.

potential high limit↗

Accurate Prediction of pKb in Amines: Validation of the CAM-B3LYP/6-311+G(d,p)/SMD Model

Amines play several key roles in chemistry and biology and are involved in numerous industrial processes, often with significant economic impacts. Recently, amines are also garnering interest as catalysts for polymer synthesis and for CO 2 fixation, incentivizing the need to rapidly design and screen new amino compounds. Hence, developing reliable methods to predict their physicochemical properties, e.g., the base dissociation constant (pKb), is pivotal. Here, a density functional theory (DFT)-based approach was employed to compute the pKb of substituted amines, exploring the impact of several key parameters, including (i) the number of explicit water molecules at the reaction center, (ii) the van der Waals (vdW) surface, and (iii) solvent polarizability. In previous work, it was determined that including two explicit water molecules at the reaction center resulted in highly accurate pKb estimates for primary amines. Here, we find that including a third water molecule at the reaction center is essential for accurate pKb for secondary and tertiary amines. The revised methodology was then applied to a wider selection of amines, obtaining a minimum average error (MAE) < 0.4. In conclusion, this result represents an extension of our “easy-to-use method,” a simple and direct DFT approach exploiting CAM-B3LYP/SMD/6-311G+(d,p) to compute pKb without post facto modifications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evaluating the limitations of Bayesian metabolic control analysis

AbstractBayesian Metabolic Control Analysis (BMCA) has emerged as a promising framework for inferring metabolic control coefficients in data-limited scenarios by integrating Bayesian inference with linlog rate laws. However, its predictive accuracy and limitations remain underexplored. This study systematically evaluates BMCA’s ability to infer elasticity values, flux control coefficients (FCCs), and concentration control coefficients (CCCs) under varying data availability conditions using three synthetic metabolic network models. Our findings highlight the strengths and weaknesses of BMCA, guiding its application in metabolic engineering and emphasizing the need for methodological refinements.Author summaryUnderstanding how enzymes control metabolic pathways is crucial for optimizing biomanufacturing and synthetic biology applications. Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis (BMCA) is a promising computational method that integrates Bayesian inference with metabolic control analysis to estimate key control parameters, even in cases with limited experimental data. However, the accuracy and limitations of BMCA remain unclear. In this study, we systematically evaluate BMCA using three synthetic metabolic networks to determine how different types of physiological data impact its predictive performance. We find that BMCA requires flux and enzyme concentration data for accurate predictions, while external metabolite concentrations contribute little. Additionally, BMCA fails to predict elasticity values beyond a magnitude of 1.5 and reliably infer allosteric regulation, even when strong regulatory interactions exist. In addition, BMCA does not accurately rank metabolic control points, which may limit its utility in identifying key enzymes in engineered pathways. Our work provides practical insights into when and how BMCA can be applied, guiding future research in metabolic modeling and control analysis.

Shin, Janis (ORCID:0000000216572455)↗