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At least 451 records · Page 25

Examining organic acid production potential and growth‐coupled strategies in Issatchenkia orientalis using constraint‐based modeling

Abstract Growth‐coupling product formation can facilitate strain stability by aligning industrial objectives with biological fitness. Organic acids make up many building block chemicals that can be produced from sugars obtainable from renewable biomass. Issatchenkia orientalis is a yeast strain tolerant to acidic conditions and is thus a promising host for industrial production of organic acids. Here, we use constraint‐based methods to assess the potential of computationally designing growth‐coupled production strains for I. orientalis that produce 22 different organic acids under aerobic or microaerobic conditions. We explore native and engineered pathways using glucose or xylose as the carbon substrates as proxy constituents of hydrolyzed biomass. We identified growth‐coupled production strategies for 37 of the substrate‐product pairs, with 15 pairs achieving production for any growth rate. We systematically assess the strain design solutions and categorize the underlying principles involved.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cation-Specific Electrokinetic Separations Using Prussian Blue Intercalation Reactions

In this work, we report a new approach for forming ion depletion zones (IDZs) using intercalation reactions at an electrochemically controlled Prussian blue (PB) film. The experiments described here were performed using a microfluidic device, wherein a charged fluorophore in solution was used as a proxy to monitor IDZ formation. In the presence of K + , intercalation reactions proceed readily to form an IDZ, and thus enrich the fluorophore up to 37-fold. In the presence of the larger hydrated Li + or tetrabutylammonium (TBA + ) ions, however, ion intercalation proceeded less quickly than with K + . Slower ion intercalation resulted in a weaker IDZ and correspondingly lower enrichment factors of eight- and six-fold, respectively. These results are significant because they show that PB intercalation reactions selectively form an IDZ. Accordingly, we anticipate that these findings will lead to a better understanding and further interesting applications of intercalation materials like PB for efficient and selective enrichment and separations.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A NIR fluorescent smart probe for imaging tumor hypoxia

Abstract Background Tumor hypoxia is a characteristic of paramount importance due to low oxygenation levels in tissue negatively correlating with resistance to traditional therapies. The ability to noninvasively identify such could provide for personalized treatment(s) and enhance survival rates. Accordingly, we recently developed an NIR fluorescent hypoxia‐sensitive smart probe ( NO 2 ‐Rosol ) for identifying hypoxia via selectively imaging nitroreductase (NTR) activity, which could correlate to oxygen deprivation levels in cells, thereby serving as a proxy. We demonstrated proof of concept by subjecting a glioblastoma (GBM) cell line to extreme stress by evaluating such under radiobiological hypoxic ( p O 2 ≤ ~0.5%) conditions, which is a far cry from representative levels for hypoxia for brain glioma ( p O 2 = ~1.7%) which fluctuate little from physiological hypoxic ( p O 2 = 1.0‐3.0%) conditions. Aim We aimed to evaluate the robustness, suitability, and feasibility of NO 2 ‐Rosol for imaging hypoxia in vitro and in vivo via assessing NTR activity in diverse GBM models under relevant oxygenation levels ( p O 2 = 2.0%) within physiological hypoxic conditions that mimic oxygenation levels in GBM tumor tissue in the brain. Methods We evaluated multiple GBM cell lines to determine their relative sensitivity to oxygenation levels via measuring carbonic anhydrase IX (CAIX) levels, which is a surrogate marker for indirectly identifying hypoxia by reporting on oxygen deprivation levels and upregulated NTR activity. We evaluated for hypoxia via measuring NTR activity when employing NO 2 ‐Rosol in in vitro and tumor hypoxia imaging studies in vivo. Results The GBM39 cell line demonstrated the highest CAIX expression under hypoxic conditions representing that of GBM in the brain. NO 2 ‐Rosol displayed an 8‐fold fluorescence enhancement when evaluated in GBM39 cells ( p O 2 = 2.0%), thereby establishing its robustness and suitability for imaging hypoxia under relevant physiological conditions. We demonstrated the feasibility of NO 2 ‐Rosol to afford tumor hypoxia imaging in vivo via it demonstrating a tumor‐to‐background of 5 upon (i) diffusion throughout, (ii) bioreductive activation by NTR activity in, and (iii) retention within, GBM39 tumor tissue. Conclusion We established the robustness, suitability, and feasibility of NO 2 ‐Rosol for imaging hypoxia under relevant oxygenation levels in vitro and in vivo via assessing NTR activity in GBM39 models.

Hettie, Kenneth S.↗

Instruction Roofline: An insightful visual performance model for GPUs

The Roofline performance model provides an intuitive approach to identify performance bottlenecks and guide performance optimization. However, the classic FLOP-centric approach is inappropriate for the emerging applications that perform more integer operations than floating point operations. In this article, we reintroduce our Instruction Roofline Model on NVIDIA GPUs and expand our evaluation of it. The Instruction Roofline incorporates instructions and memory transactions across all memory hierarchies together, and provides more performance insights than the FLOP-oriented Roofline Model, that is, instruction throughput, stride memory access patterns, bank conflicts, and thread predication. We use our Instruction Roofline methodology to analyze eight proxy applications: HPGMG from AMReX, Matrix Transpose benchmarks, ADEPT from MetaHipMer's sequence alignment phase, EXTENSION from MetaHipMer's local assembly phase, CUSP, cuSPARSE, cudaTensorCoreGemm, and cuBLAS. We demonstrate the ability of our methodology to understand various aspects of performance and performance bottlenecks on NVIDIA GPUs and motivate code optimizations.

Ding, N↗

Early experiences evaluating the HPE/Cray ecosystem for AMD GPUs

Summary The Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) has a long history of supporting and promoting GPU‐accelerated computing starting with the deployment of the Titan supercomputer in 2021 and continuing with the Summit supercomputer which has a theoretical peak performance of approximately 200 petaflops. Because the majority of Summit's computational power comes from its 27,972 GPUs, users must port their applications to one of the supported programming models in order to make efficient use of the system. To prepare the transition to Frontier, the OLCF's exascale supercomputer, users will need to adapt to an entirely new ecosystem which will include new hardware and software technologies. First, users will need to familiarize themselves with the AMD Radeon GPU architecture. Furthermore, users who have been previously relying on CUDA will need to transition to the Heterogeneous‐Computing Interface for Portability (HIP) or one of the other supported programming models (e.g., OpenMP, OpenACC). In this work, we describe our initial experiences and lessons learned in porting three applications or proxy apps currently running on Summit to the HPE/Cray ecosystem to leverage the compute power from AMD GPUs: minisweep, GenASiS, and Sparkler. Each one is representative of current production workloads utilized at the OLCF, different programming languages, and different programming models.

Melesse Vergara, Verónica G.↗

SOMA: Observability, monitoring, and in situ analytics for exascale applications

With the rise of exascale systems and large, data-centric workflows, the need to observe and analyze high performance computing (HPC) applications during their execution is becoming increasingly important. HPC applications are typically not designed with online monitoring in mind, therefore, the observability challenge lies in being able to access and analyze interesting events with low overhead while seamlessly integrating such capabilities into existing and new applications. We explore how our service-based observation, monitoring, and analytics (SOMA) approach to collecting and aggregating both application-specific diagnostic data and performance data addresses these needs. Furthermore, we present our SOMA framework and demonstrate its viability with LULESH, a hydrodynamics proxy application. Then we focus on Astaroth, a multi-GPU library for stencil computations, highlighting the integration of the TAU and APEX performance tools and SOMA for application and performance data monitoring.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

ytopt: Autotuning Scientific Applications for Energy Efficiency at Large Scales

As we enter the exascale computing era, efficiently utilizing power and optimizing the performance of scientific applications under power and energy constraints has become critical and challenging. We propose a low-overhead autotuning framework to autotune performance and energy for various hybrid MPI/OpenMP scientific applications at large scales and to explore the tradeoffs between application runtime and power/energy for energy efficient application execution, then use this framework to autotune four ECP proxy applications—XSBench, AMG, SWFFT, and SW4lite. Our approach uses Bayesian optimization with a Random Forest surrogate model to effectively search parameter spaces with up to 6 million different configurations on two large-scale HPC production systems, Theta at Argonne National Laboratory and Summit at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The experimental results show that our autotuning framework at large scales has low overhead and achieves good scalability. Using the proposed autotuning framework to identify the best configurations, we achieve up to 91.59% performance improvement, up to 21.2% energy savings, and up to 37.84% EDP (energy delay product) improvement on up to 4096 nodes.

Autotuning↗

Iterative sampling of expensive simulations for faster deep surrogate training

Deep neural network (DNN) surrogates of expensive physics simulations are enabling a rapid change in the way that common experimental design and analysis tasks are approached. Surrogate models allow simulations to be performed in parallel and separately from downstream tasks, thereby enabling analyses that would be impossible with the simulation in-the-loop; surrogates based on DNNs can effectively emulate diverse non-scalar data of the types collected in fusion and laboratory-astrophysics experiments. The challenge is in training the surrogate model, for which large ensembles of physics simulations must be run, preferably without wasting computational effort on uninteresting simulations. Here, in this paper, we present an iterative sampling scheme that can preferentially propose simulations in interesting regions of parameter space without neglecting unexplored regions, allowing high-quality and wide-ranging surrogate models to be trained using 2–3 times fewer simulations compare to space-filling designs. Our approach uses an explicit importance function defined on the simulation output space, balanced against a measure of simulation density which serves as a proxy for surrogate accuracy. It is easy to implement and can be tuned to find interesting simulations early in the study, allowing surrogates to be trained quickly and refined as new simulations become available; this represents an important step towards the routine generation of deep surrogate models quickly enough to be truly relevant to experimental work.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Validation of (not-historical) large-event near-fault ground-motion simulations for use in civil engineering applications

Ground-motion simulations generated from physics-based wave propagation models are gaining increasing interest in the engineering community for their potential to inform the performance-based design and assessment of infrastructure residing in active seismic areas. A key prerequisite before the ground-motion simulations can be used with confidence for application in engineering domains is their comprehensive and rigorous investigation and validation. This article provides a four-step methodology and acceptance criteria to assess the reliability of simulated ground motions of not historical events, which includes (1) the selection of a population of real records consistent with the simulated scenarios, (2) the comparison of the distribution of Intensity Measures (IMs) from the simulated records, real records, and Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), (3) the comparison of the distribution of simple proxies for building response, and (4) the comparison of the distribution of Engineering Demand Parameters (EDPs) for a realistic model of a structure. Specific focus is laid on near-field ground motions (<10km) from large earthquakes (M w 7), for which the database of real records for potential use in engineering applications is severely limited. The methodology is demonstrated through comparison of (2490) near-field synthetic records with 5 Hz resolution generated from the Pitarka et al (2019) kinematic rupture model with a population of (38) pulse-like near-field real records from multiple events and, when applicable, with NGA-W2 GMPEs. Lastly, the proposed procedure provides an effective method for informing and advancing the science needed to generate realistic ground-motion simulations, and for building confidence in their use in engineering domains.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantitative interpretation of time-lapse seismic data at Farnsworth field unit: Rock physics modeling, and calibration of simulated time-lapse velocity responses

Here, this study investigates the contribution of fluid saturation variation to the time-lapse velocity response by performing fluid substitution modeling. The methodology is exemplified by the time-lapse seismic monitoring of carbon dioxide at Farnsworth field unit (FWU). In order to evaluate the fluid distribution in a matured oil reservoir, the Southwest Regional Partnership (SWP) acquired multiple vertical seismic profile (VSP) surveys at different times during the CO 2 –water alternatinggas (WAG) injection period. In this work, we present a thorough methodology for computing the elastic response of the saturated rock for different fluid saturations using a site-specific petro-elastic model (PEM). The output from the PEM was combined with results from a fluid compositional model to compute the seismic velocities at times corresponding to each VSP survey. To produce a calibrated simulated response, the measured time-lapse seismic velocities were integrated into the numerical simulation model. The mismatches between the predicted and measured time-lapse velocities were minimized through an iterative calibration process using a trained artificial neural network proxy (ANN) coupled with a particle swarm optimizer (PSO). Our study indicates that the hybrid optimization workflow can effectively perform the history matching. With an accurate prediction of the hydrodynamic properties, the migration of CO 2 within the subsurface was modeled by predicting the spatial velocity distribution for a radius of 305 m around the injection well. The technology demonstrated and the expertise gained from this study can guide similar CO 2 -WAG projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Warmer incubation temperatures and later lay–orders lead to shorter telomere lengths in wood duck ( Aix sponsa ) ducklings

The environment that animals experience during development shapes phenotypic expression. In birds, two important aspects of the early-developmental environment are lay-order sequence and incubation. Later-laid eggs tend to produce weaker offspring, sometimes with compensatory mechanisms to accelerate their growth rate to catch-up to their siblings. Further, small decreases in incubation temperature slow down embryonic growth rates and lead to wide-ranging negative effects on many post-hatch traits. Recently, telomeres, non-coding DNA sequences at the end of chromosomes, have been recognized as a potential proxy for fitness because longer telomeres are positively related to lifespan and individual quality in many animals, including birds. Although telomeres appear to be mechanistically linked to growth rate, little is known about how incubation temperature and lay-order may influence telomere length. We incubated wood duck (Aix sponsa) eggs at two ecologically-relevant temperatures (34.9 and 36.2ºC) and measured telomere length at hatch and one week after. We found that ducklings incubated at the lower temperature had longer telomeres than those incubated at the higher temperature both at hatch and one week later. Further, we found that later-laid eggs produced ducklings with shorter telomeres than those laid early in the lay-sequence, although lay-order was not related to embryonic developmental rate. Furthermore, this study contributes to our broader understanding of how parental effects can affect telomere length early in life. More work is needed to determine if these effects on telomere length persist until adulthood, and if they are associated with effects on fitness in this precocial species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate

Abstract This research seeks to understand simulated supercell precipitation characteristics across the conterminous United States (CONUS) using high‐resolution, convection‐permitting, dynamically downscaled simulations for three 15‐year epochs. Epochs include a historical end‐of‐20th‐century period (1990–2005) and two end‐of‐21st‐century (2085–2100) scenarios for intermediate and pessimistic greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Simulated updraft helicity, which measures the corkscrew flow within a storm's updraft, is used as a proxy for supercells. An algorithm tracks and catalogues updraft helicity swaths that, when buffered, are used to acquire simulated precipitation from supercells. The historical epoch provides a baseline climatology of supercell precipitation for a contemporary climate, which is then compared against the two future epochs to assess how supercell precipitation may change during the 21st century. Despite their relatively small size, supercells provide critical precipitation to the Wheat and Corn Belts, large expanses of CONUS pasture and rangeland, regional aquifers and several large river basins. Many areas in the central CONUS receive upwards of 3%–6% of their annual and 5%–8% of their warm‐season precipitation from these storms. Results suggest that precipitation contribution from supercells will decrease in the future across most of the High Plains and Central and Northern Great Plains with robust increases likely across the south‐central and Southeast regions. Supercell precipitation rates are expected to increase for large portions of the CONUS by the end‐of‐the‐21st‐century, suggesting a growing threat for flash floods from these storms as they become more efficient precipitation producers. This research provides an initial perspective on the magnitude of supercell precipitation and potential changes to this important hydrologic input to assist water‐sensitive industries, private and public insurance markets, agriculture entities, as well as inform plans to mitigate and build resilience to rapid environmental and societal change.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Climatic controls on soil and saprock nitrogen distribution and persistence in the Sierra Nevada

Nitrogen (N) is an essential nutrient in soil that regulates plant growth, terrestrial sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and persistence of organic compounds. However, major knowledge gaps remain about how climate change may impact N accumulation and persistence, especially in deep soil and saprock (friable weakly weathered bedrock). Our objective was to understand how climate impacts the accumulation of N in soil and saprock and how climate impacts soil N distribution, persistence, and mechanisms of N persistence. We investigated N concentration in bulk soil and density fractions. We estimated N persistence along a bio-climatic sequence—sites range from a low-elevation oak savannah, mid-elevation pine-oak/mixed-conifer forest, to a high-elevation subalpine forest—in the southern Sierra Nevada in California. A combination of radiocarbon and elemental composition measurements along with a first-order kinetic model was used. The N concentration in the bulk soil and density fractions declined with depth, and there was a relatively greater mineral-associated heavy fraction (HF) N in deeper samples. The cooler/wetter mixed conifer site held 37% of profile N in saprock, which was greater than that of the entire soil profile at the drier/hotter oak savannah. The majority of N in soil, which was in the HF, was not influenced by climate proxies tested. However, both unprotected and occluded fractions of N were strongly influenced by climate. Soil N mean residence time (MRT) showed that drier/hotter climates have a shorter MRT, compared to mid-elevation sites with cooler/wetter climates. The effect of climate on deep saprock N storage might be indirect, primarily through climatic influence on the thickness of saprock. Overall, our findings suggest the mineral-associated HF N pool will not be vulnerable to changes in climate and will continue to contribute to the persistent soil N pool. The amount of topsoil and subsoil unprotected and occluded N can be explained by gross primary productivity and mean annual precipitation indicating that changes in climate can influence N partitioning. N stored in deep soil and saprock may be less vulnerable to climate than N stored in drier/hotter climates with less deeply stored N. It is critical to dig deeper to understand terrestrial ecosystems’ response to climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Degradation in photovoltaic encapsulation strength of attachment: Results of the first PVQAT TG5 artificial weathering study

Delamination of the encapsulant in photovoltaic (PV) module technology results in immediate optical loss and may enable subsequent corrosion or mechanical damage. The effects of artificial weathering were not previously known; therefore, an empirical study was performed to survey the factors most affecting adhesion, including the ultraviolet (UV) source (ie, Xe or fluorescent lamp[s]), the optical filters for the lamp, the chamber temperature, and the relative humidity. Natural weathering was also performed at locations, including the following: Golden, Colorado; Miami, Florida; Phoenix, Arizona; QiongHai, China; Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; and Turpan, China. Specimens were constructed using a laminated glass/poly (ethylene-co-vinyl acetate)/glass geometry. The compressive shear test (CST) was used to quantify the mechanical strength of attachment, taken as a proxy for adhesion. The fractography of select specimens (including cross-sectional optical microscopy) was used to verify the failure mode (delamination or decohesion). Additional analysis of the local solar spectrum as well as the specimen temperature was performed to interpret the results of natural weathering. The goals of this study include to identify the most significant stressors, clarify where strong coupling may occur between stressors, and validate accelerated test results relative to natural weathering. The importance of specimen conditioning (for moisture) and hygrometric degradation as well as the effects of UV degradation are identified in this paper.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Persistence and potential of soil organic carbon in nature‐based climate solutions: A review of managed disturbances

Societal Impact Statement Implementing nature-based climate solutions is important for mitigating climate change, which is a global issue, but requires local adjustments in management practices. Using the association between soil carbon and minerals as a proxy for carbon persistence, we evaluated the effect of different management regimes on soil carbon sequestration and loss. We identified areas where management practices that increase carbon inputs should be prioritized and areas where management should focus on avoiding severe disturbances. Using this storage-potential-and-persistence framework to identify how to increase or maintain soil organic carbon storage locally will increase the effectiveness of nature-based climate solutions globally. Summary Increasing soil organic carbon storage could reduce the pace of climate change, but the longevity of this nature-based climate solution depends on the persistence of carbon in soils, not just the input rates into soils. We apply a framework for considering how soil carbon persistence—namely, via the association with minerals—sheds light on soil carbon sequestration. We review how management of disturbances, such as prescribed burning, forestry, and grazing, can change soil carbon storage, persistence, and potential. Past work demonstrated that management of disturbances can sequester soil carbon, but it remains unclear how the potential stabilization of that accrual and vulnerability to loss varies across disturbance types and geographies. We found that there is substantial geographical heterogeneity in the overlap among estimates of carbon accrual, disturbance occurrence, and potential stabilization: Fire-prone grasslands and intensively grazed rangelands occur in areas estimated to have high potential to store mineral-associated organic carbon, and studies also find that adjusted fire and grazing can promote mineral-associated organic carbon. Plantation forestry and burned area span large regions where particulate organic matter is the dominant form, and studies find that particulate organic carbon is disproportionately lost following intense wildfires and forest harvests. Thus, areas with high mineral-associated organic carbon deficits should be prioritized for practices that increase carbon inputs; whereas areas with high proportions of particulate organic carbon should be prioritized for practices that help to avoid severe disturbances. Taken together, the distribution of and changes in persistence mechanisms shed light on the durability of nature-based climate solutions.

fire↗

How hydrophobicity, side chains, and salt affect the dimensions of disordered proteins

Abstract Despite the generally accepted role of the hydrophobic effect as the driving force for folding, many intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs), including those with hydrophobic content typical of foldable proteins, behave nearly as self‐avoiding random walks (SARWs) under physiological conditions. Here, we tested how temperature and ionic conditions influence the dimensions of the N‐terminal domain of pertactin (PNt), an IDP with an amino acid composition typical of folded proteins. While PNt contracts somewhat with temperature, it nevertheless remains expanded over 10–58°C, with a Flory exponent, ν , >0.50. Both low and high ionic strength also produce contraction in PNt, but this contraction is mitigated by reducing charge segregation. With 46% glycine and low hydrophobicity, the reduced form of snow flea anti‐freeze protein (red‐sfAFP) is unaffected by temperature and ionic strength and persists as a near‐SARW, ν ~ 0.54, arguing that the thermal contraction of PNt is due to stronger interactions between hydrophobic side chains. Additionally, red‐sfAFP is a proxy for the polypeptide backbone, which has been thought to collapse in water. Increasing the glycine segregation in red‐sfAFP had minimal effect on ν . Water remained a good solvent even with 21 consecutive glycine residues ( ν > 0.5), and red‐sfAFP variants lacked stable backbone hydrogen bonds according to hydrogen exchange. Similarly, changing glycine segregation has little impact on ν in other glycine‐rich proteins. These findings underscore the generality that many disordered states can be expanded and unstructured, and that the hydrophobic effect alone is insufficient to drive significant chain collapse for typical protein sequences.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Position-specific carbon isotope analysis of serine by gas chromatography/Orbitrap mass spectrometry, and an application to plant metabolism

Position-specific 13 C/ 12 C ratios within amino acids remain largely unexplored in environmental samples due to methodological limitations. We hypothesized that natural-abundance isotope patterns in serine may serve as a proxy for plant metabolic fluxes including photorespiration. Here we describe an Orbitrap method optimized for the position-specific carbon isotope analysis of serine to test our hypothesis and discuss the generalizability of this method to other amino acids. Position-specific carbon isotope ratios of serine were measured using a Thermo Scientific™ Q Exactive™ GC Orbitrap™. Amino acids were hydrolyzed from Arabidopsis biomass, purified from potential matrix interferences, and derivatized alongside standards. Derivatized serine (N,O-bis(trifluoroacetyl)methyl ester) was isolated using gas chromatography, trapped in a reservoir, and purged into the electron ionization source over tens of minutes, producing fragment ions containing different combinations of atoms from the serine-derivative molecule. The 13 C/ 12 C ratios of fragments with monoisotopic masses of 110.0217, 138.0166, and 165.0037 Da were monitored in the mass analyzer and used to calculate position-specific δ 13 C values relative to a working standard. This methodology constrains position-specific δ 13 C values for nanomole amounts of serine isolated from chemically complex mixtures. The δ 13 C values of fragment ions of serine were characterized with ≤1‰ precisions, leading to propagated standard errors of 0.7–5‰ for each carbon position. Position-specific δ 13 C values differed by up to ca 28 ± 5‰ between serine molecules hydrolyzed from plants grown under contrasting pCO 2 , selected to promote different fluxes through photosynthesis and photorespiration. The method was validated using pure serine standards characterized offline. Here this study presents the first Orbitrap-based measurements of natural-abundance, position-specific carbon isotope variation in an amino acid isolated from a biological matrix. We present a method for the precise characterization of isotope ratios in serine and propose applications probing metabolism in plants. We discuss the potential for extending these approaches to other amino acids, paving the way for novel applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing climate pathways using feature importance on echo state networks

The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States listed climate change as a serious threat to national security. Climate intervention methods, such as stratospheric aerosol injection, have been proposed as mitigation strategies, but the downstream effects of such actions on a complex climate system are not well understood. The development of algorithmic techniques for quantifying relationships between source and impact variables related to a climate event (i.e., a climate pathway) would help inform policy decisions. Data-driven deep learning models have become powerful tools for modeling highly nonlinear relationships and may provide a route to characterize climate variable relationships. In this paper, we explore the use of an echo state network (ESN) for characterizing climate pathways. ESNs are a computationally efficient neural network variation designed for temporal data, and recent work proposes ESNs as a useful tool for forecasting spatiotemporal climate data. However, ESNs are noninterpretable black-box models along with other neural networks. The lack of model transparency poses a hurdle for understanding variable relationships. We address this issue by developing feature importance methods for ESNs in the context of spatiotemporal data to quantify variable relationships captured by the model. We conduct a simulation study to assess and compare the feature importance techniques, and we demonstrate the approach on reanalysis climate data. In the climate application, we consider a time period that includes the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo. This event was a significant stratospheric aerosol injection, which acts as a proxy for an anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol injection. Furthermore, we are able to use the proposed approach to characterize relationships between pathway variables associated with this event that agree with relationships previously identified by climate scientists.

black-box models↗