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Final Reports from the Los Alamos National Laboratory Computational Physics Student Summer Workshop

The two primary purposes of LANL’s Computational Physics Student Summer Workshop are (1) To educate graduate and exceptional undergraduate students in the challenges and applications of computational physics of interest to LANL, and (2) Entice their interest toward those challenges. Computational physics is emerging as a discipline in its own right, combining expertise in mathematics, physics, and computer science. The mathematical aspects focus on numerical methods for solving equations on the computer as well as developing test problems with analytical solutions. The physics aspects are very broad, ranging from low-temperature material modeling to extremely high temperature plasma physics, radiation transport and neutron transport. The computer science issues are concerned with matching numerical algorithms to emerging architectures and maintaining the quality of extremely large codes built to achieve multi-physics calculations. Although graduate programs associated with computational physics are emerging, it is apparent that the pool of U.S. citizens in this multidisciplinary field is relatively small and is typically not focused on the aspects that are of primary interest to LANL. Furthermore, more structured foundations for LANL interaction with universities in computational physics is needed; currently interactions rely almost solely on individuals’ personalities and personal contacts. Thus a tertiary purpose of the Summer Workshop is to build an educational network of LANL researchers, university professors, and emerging students to advance the field and LANL’s involvement in it. This was the second year for the Summer Workshop. Like the previous year, the workshop’s goals were achieved by bringing into LANL a select group of students recruited from across the United States and immersing them for ten weeks in lectures and interesting research projects. The lectures provided an overview of the computational physics topics of interest this year along with some detailed instruction while the projects gave the students a positive experience accomplishing technical goals. Each team consisted of two students working under one or more mentors from LANL on specific research projects associated with predefined topics. This year, the topics were on verification of simulations in plasma and radiation-hydrodynamics codes, hypervelocity material deformation, plasma physics, graphical processor unit (“GPU”) programming, multi-material mixing, turbulence modeling, computational material science, and electromagnetic pulse simulations. The students’ growth was furthered by their participation on teams where their teammates were sometimes of different academic rank. It also developed them by requiring them to produce written and oral reports that they presented to peers, mentors, and management.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

OECD/NEA EGMPEBV Activities in Multi-Physics Verification and Validation

The Expert Group on Multi-Physics Experimental Data, Benchmarks and Validation (EGMPEBV) was established in 2014 by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to establish processes for certification of experimental data and development of benchmark models for validation of Multi-Physics (MP) Modeling and Simulation (M and S) computational systems. The aim of the group is to provide member countries with guidelines and recommendations for validating and improving their novel multi-physics simulations, and with an access to key experimental data. To be used to their full potential, these novel tools will require a more complex suite of validation experiments due to the multiple energy, spatial and temporal scales, as well as the number of physical phenomena being simulated. They will also require accurate measurements of all terms, including coupling terms representing the feedback effects, in situations where the appropriate experimental techniques and facilities might not exist today. However, the ability to conduct validation experiments has for certain applications progressed at a slower pace than for computational methods, or in some cases it has significantly regressed (through shutdown of facilities, or through retirement of experts). In addition, as modelling capabilities are reaching deeper levels in single physics phenomena and in coupled behaviors, appropriate experimental techniques may not yet exist. Validation of multiple physics models requires a wide variety of experimental data, which emphasizes the importance of maximizing the use of historically accumulated data to avoid the significant cost of performing similar experiments today. Moreover, the pedigree and quality of this data as it pertains to modern day simulation methods may be insufficient for rigorous validation of high fidelity modeling and simulation tools. Thus, these data can often exhibit limitations including a lack of measurement accuracy or a lack of knowledge of the measurement uncertainty in the experimental techniques; an absence of measurements for some critical parameters; an obscuring of relationships between individual physics phenomena owing to the output data resolution; or simply an inability to allow for a detailed reinterpretation of the experiments based on the documented information. The organization of the EGMPEBV relies on three Task Forces, focused on 1) Experimental Data Qualification and Benchmark Evaluation; 2) Methods and Standards, and 3) Specific Applications. Task Force 1 is focused on providing better and more accurate experimental datasets, which support validation of high-fidelity multi-physics modelling and simulation (M and S) tools. At the same time it has to consider the incompleteness of past experimental data sets (in terms of data, documentation, or uncertainties) and with the limited number of available multi-physics experimental facilities. Task Force 2 is designed to develop validation methods and guidelines, and uncertainty qualification for the new family of multi-physics, multi-scale codes in the context of emerging demands such as longer fuel cycles and power uprate. Task Force 3 is focused on applications of validation experiments and has the objective to organize multi-physics M and S benchmarks involving validation experiments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Anomaly detection for cyber-physical systems

An anomaly detector is configured to construct cyber and/or physical features comprising information configured to characterize the cyber and/or physical state of a cyber-physical system. The physical features may be based on physical and/or physics-based relationships between a plurality of physical state attributes. A health of the cyber-physical system may be based on an error between estimates of one or more of the physical state attributes and measurements of the one or more physical state attributes. The relationships may be incorporated into machine learning membership functions used to classify cyber and/or physical behavior of the system.

Rieger, Craig G.↗

New Theories for Physics beyond the Standard Model

The theoretical particle physics and cosmology group at Case Western Reserve University has a great tradition in this field of research. The PI is a new professor at CWRU, and his main goal is to establish a new theoretical effort in particle physics and cosmology. The PI has been working on physics beyond the Standard Model for more than 12 years and have published more than 75 publications in this field. The proposed research project will be crucial for the postdocs and students to understand the different theories for physics beyond the Standard Model and become world experts in this field of research. The main goal of this project is to investigate new theories for physics beyond the Standard Model. The Standard Model of Particle Physics is one of the most successful theories of nature, but it cannot explain many open issues in particle physics and cosmology. In this proposal we propose to investigate new ideas which could lead to a more complete theory. The PI has proposed new theories for physics beyond the Standard Model where the baryon and lepton numbers can be defined as local gauge symmetries spontaneously broken at the low scale. In these theories one can understand the proton stability and one have some interesting predictions for cosmology. These theories have the potential to change the standard paradigm for physics beyond the Standard Model, where one assumes a great desert between the electroweak scale and the scale where one has the possible unification of fundamental forces. In this context one does not need to postulate the great desert, the proton is stable, and one can have the unification of the gauge forces at the low scale. We propose to investigate theoretical, cosmological and phenomenological aspects of the theories where the baryon and lepton numbers are local gauge symmetries. We plan to investigate new possible baryogenesis mechanisms in the case where the local baryon number is spontaneously broken at the low scale. In this case there could be a relation between the baryon asymmetry and the asymmetry in the dark matter sector. In the context of these theories, one has different candidates for the cold dark matter in the Universe and we plan to investigate all predictions for direct detection experiments and the possible signals at gamma-ray telescopes. The different signatures at the Large Hadron Collider will be investigated in great detail. In these theories one predicts the existence of new particle with baryon and lepton numbers called lepto- baryons which can give rise to exotic signatures at the Large Hadron Collider. One of the most interesting aspects to study in this context is the unification of gauge forces. Since the proton is stable in this theory one can realized the unification at the low scale and understand the embedding of these theories in grand unified theories. These studies could define a new way to think about physics beyond the Standard Model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

SCALE 6.2 Lattice Physics Performance Assessment

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relies on the lattice physics analysis capabilities of the SCALE code system to perform confirmatory licensing analyses. Either SCALE lattice physics code—TRITON/NEWT or Polaris—can be used to generate cross section data used by the PARCS nodal core simulator for full-core neutronics calculations. This report presents an assessment of the accuracy of SCALE lattice physics codes for preparation of lattice physics data that are used to support simulator codes such as the NRC’s PARCS, for UO 2 -mixed oxide (MOX)/Zr fueled light water reactor (LWR) analyses. Due to the nature of lattice physics calculations, critical reactor experiment benchmarks cannot be modeled in explicit detail in a lattice physics code. However, this limitation does not mean that these measurement data are not usable for lattice physics studies. Therefore, either geometry approximations or axial buckling must be implemented to determine the critical water height. These modeling limitations have led to development of a three-phase assessment strategy. In the first phase, selected critical experiment benchmarks are modeled using the SCALE 3D continuous-energy (CE) Monte Carlo (MC) code KENO, which is the most rigorous neutron transport method available in SCALE, with no approximations in the spatial, angle, or energy treatments. Biases and statistical uncertainties in quantities of interest such as k eff and pin power distributions are determined by comparing CE KENO results to experimental data. This first phase in the accuracy assessment is to demonstrate and establish the use of CE KENO as a reference solution for the second phase. In the second phase, 14 numerical test suites are used to compare SCALE lattice physics calculations with CE KENO as a reference solution. In the third phase, SCALE lattice physics depletion calculations are performed, and the spent fuel isotopic results are compared with available radiochemical assay measurements. Isotopic measurement comparisons provide quantitative assessment of isotopic density distribution predictions with the depletion models in SCALE lattice physics codes. This report documents results for all test suites. The assessment was performed using standard production techniques unless otherwise noted. Both TRITON/NEWT and Polaris exhibited acceptable accuracy for most test cases. For the few test cases in which acceptable accuracy criteria were not met, further code and data development are planned. The computer codes used in this assessment are as follows: SCALE 6.2 rev19189 (pre-release of 6.2.1) was used for CE KENO, TRITON/NEWT and Polaris (PWR only) calculations; SCALE 6.2.2 was used for Polaris calculations to address several updates in support of support boiling water reactor (BWR) lattice geometries. For this work, there is no difference between SCALE 6.2.1 and SCALE 6.2.2 beyond the inclusion of the Polaris BWR analysis capability; The ENDF/B-VII.1 continuous energy and 252 group libraries deployed in SCALE 6.2 were generated with AMPX 6.2 that is distributed with SCALE.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Floor and ceiling effects in the EORTC QLQ-C30 Physical Functioning subscale among patients with advanced or metastatic breast cancer

The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 Physical Functioning subscale is a widely used patient-reported outcome measure that quantifies cancer patients' physical functioning. Strong floor/ceiling effects can affect a scale's sensitivity to change. The aim of this study was to characterize floor/ceiling effects of the physical functioning domain in patients with advanced/metastatic breast cancer enrolled in commercial clinical trials and a community-based trial. The clinical trial cohort comprised patients from 5 registrational trials submitted to the Food and Drug Administration for review (2010-2017). The community cohort comprised a subgroup of patients from the Alliance Patient Reported Outcomes to Enhance Cancer Treatment (PRO-TECT) trial. The distribution of patient responses to Physical Functioning items and the summed score were assessed at the baseline and 3-month follow-up for both cohorts. Descriptive statistics were used to determine floor/ceiling effects at the item and scale levels. The clinical trial cohort and the community cohort consisted of 2407 and 178 patients, respectively. Twenty-four percent or more of the respondents reported “not at all” for having trouble/needing help with each Physical Functioning item across both cohorts and measurement time points. Fourteen to twenty percent of the patients scored perfectly (100 of 100) on the Physical Functioning subscale summary measure (where higher scores indicated better physical functioning) across both cohorts and time points. Minor floor effects and notable ceiling effects were found at the item and scale levels of the Physical Functioning subscale, regardless of cohort, and this creates some uncertainty about its ability to detect changes in physical functioning among high-functioning patients. In conclusion, investigators may consider adding additional high-functioning items from the EORTC's item library to more accurately describe the impact of anticancer treatment on patients' physical functioning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Emulation and detection of physical faults and cyber-attacks on building energy systems through real-time hardware-in-the-loop experiments

The increasing use of remote or mobile access, integrated wearable technologies, data exchange, and cloud-based data analytics in modern smart buildings is steering the building industry towards open communication technologies. The increased connectivity and accessibility could lead to more cyber-attacks in smart buildings. On the other hand, physical faults (e.g., HVAC -heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning faults) may have similar adverse impacts as those from the cyber-attacks on building energy systems, such as occupant discomfort, energy wastage, and equipment downtime. However, current physical behavior-based anomaly detection methods fail to differentiate between cyber-attacks and physical faults in building energy systems. Moreover, the challenge in collecting real-world threat data with ground truth has led researchers to rely on numerical models with user-defined assumptions, which may not accurately reflect real-world conditions due to the lack of in-situ experimental datasets. To address these challenges and gaps, this paper presents a flexible hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed for generating cyber-attack and physical fault datasets and demonstrating threat detection algorithms in a real building automation system (BAS) environment. This testbed combines hardware (i.e., real BAS with local HVAC controllers and a physical network) with software (i.e., high-fidelity models to represent behaviors of building envelope and HVAC energy systems), enabling emulations of realistic threats. Five HIL experiments, including one baseline without any threats, two with physical faults, and two with cyber-attacks, were conducted to generate datasets containing detailed network traffic and system states. A joint classification framework, incorporating a network analyzer and a physical HVAC fault detector, was proposed to automatically detect cyber-physical abnormalities on BAS at both the network and the physical HVAC levels. The network analyzer comprises a conditional random fields (CRF) based command validator and a statistics-based detection strategy. The fault detector employs a weather and schedule-based pattern matching and feature-based principal component analysis (WPM-FPCA) method. Evaluation of the classification using four metrics from the multi-class confusion matrix revealed an average accuracy of 90.2%, recall of 89.7%, precision of 88.5% and F1-score of 89.2%. Finally, these results demonstrate that the proposed joint classification framework can effectively differentiate between specific types of cyber-attacks (e.g., device reinitialization attack, network Denial-of-Service attack) and physical faults (e.g., air handling unit operational fault, cooling coil valve stuck) in real time for improved building energy management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

UPR/Mayaguez High Energy Physics

This year the University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez (UPRM) High Energy Physics (HEP) group continued with the ongoing research program outlined in the grant proposal. The program is centered on the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment at the proton-proton (pp) collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN in Geneva, Switzerland. The main research focus is on data analysis and on the preparation for the High Luminosity (HL) LHC or experiment detector upgrade. The physics data analysis included Higgs Doublet Search and measurement of the (1) Λ 0 b branching fraction, (2) B meson mass, and (3) hyperon θ - b lifetime. The detector upgrade included work on the preparations for the Forward Pixel (FPIX) detector Silicon Sensor Testing in a production run at Fermilab. In addition, the group has taken responsibilities on the Software Release through our former research associate Dr. Eric Brownson who acted until last December as a Level Two Offline Manager for the CMS Upgrade. In support of the CMS data analysis activities carried out locally, the UPRM group has built and maintains an excellent Tier3 analysis center in Mayaguez. This allowed us to analyze large data samples and to continue the development of algorithms for the upgrade tracking robustness we started several years ago, and we plan to resume in the near future. This project involves computer simulation of the radiation damage to be suffered at the higher luminosities of the upgraded LHC. This year we continued to serve as a source of outstanding students for the field of high energy physics. Three of our graduate students finished their MS work in May, 2014, Their theses research were on data analysis of heavy quark b-physics. All of them are currently enrolled at Ph.D. physics program across the nation. One of them (Hector Moreno) at New Mexico University (Hector Moreno), one at University of New Hampshire (Sandra Santiesteban) and one at University of Puerto Rico-Rio Piedras (Carlos Malca). The students H. Moreno and C. Malca has been directly supervised by Dr. Mendez and S. Santiesteban supervised by Dr. Ramirez. During the last 13 years, our group have graduated 23 MS students on experimental High Energy Physics data analysis and applied hardware techniques. Most of the students have been supported by DOE grants, included this grant. Since 2001, Dr. Mendez have directly supervised eleven students, Dr. Ramirez three students and the former PI (Dr. Lopez) nine students. These theses work are fully documented in the group web page (http://charma.uprm.edu). The High Energy Physics group at Mayaguez is small and presently consists of three Physics faculty members, the Senior Investigators Dr. Hector Mendez (Professor) and Dr. Juan Eduardo Ramirez (Professor), and Dr. Sudhir Malik who was just hired in July 2014. Dr. Ramirez is in charge of the UPRM Tier-3 computing and will be building the network bandwidth infrastructure for the campus, while Dr. Mendez will continues his effort in finishing the heavy quark physics data analysis and moving to work on SUSY analysis for the 2015 data. Our last grant application in 2012 was awarded only for 2013-2014. As a result our postdoc position was lost last month of March. Since then, we have hired Dr. Malik as a new faculty in order to reinforce the group and to continue our efforts with the CMS experiment. Our plan is to hire another junior faculty in the next two years to strengthen the HEP group even further. Dr. Mendez continues with QuarkNet activities involving an ever larger group of high school physics teachers from all around Puerto Rico.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The Wonders of Physics -- Public Outreach (Final Technical Report)

The mission of The Wonders of Physics (TWoP) outreach program is to generate interest in physics among people of all ages and backgrounds. The objective is to generate interest in physics, increase appreciation for the significance of physics in our lives, and encourage children to consider careers in science and plasma physics. The primary means for achieving that objective is to make entertaining presentations to audiences that would not normally be motivated to attend a lecture on physics or plasmas, while at the same time introducing some of the fundamental concepts and applications. During this reporting period, the students Michael Hall, Megan Tabbutt and Connor Sullivan, Director of Communications Sarah Perdue, Director of Undergraduate Program Jim Reardon, and Senior Information Processing Consultant Paul Wilhite worked to make outreach programs a success and prepare for the future of The Wonders of Physics, which will continue. Because of the curtailment of public events due to Covid-19, there will not be an in person Annual Show or Physics Fair in 2021, but a video competition has already been announced and planning continues for The Wonders of Physics in 2022 and beyond. The annual shows and Physics Fair are scheduled for February 12-13 and February 19-20, 2022. These continue to be our premier outreach events, engaging diverse audiences in real hands-on science. Further shows and exploration stations are planned.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Physics Guided Simulation of Electrostatic Discharge: Technical Report

Triboelectrically-charged objects may create threshold sparks, electrostatic discharge (ESD) events, to equilibrate charge between themselves and other relatively charged objects. ESD events exhibit many complex physical phenomena. They are a nexus of several fields of physics with disparate characteristic scales: plasma physics, chemical kinetics, hydrodynamics, circuit models, etc. These scales can span many orders of magnitude from the varied collisions thermalizing information within a plasma on the $\mathcal{O}(fs/ps)$ to the physical size of the plasma channel on the $\mathcal{O}(100µm)$, to the speed of a nonlinear hydrodynamic wave propagating at $\mathcal{O}(µm, ns)$. These threshold ESD events may occur in situations of programmatic importance, delivering energy and power profiles to a “victim load” generating deleterious consequences. To predict and mitigate these consequences we must answer questions about the spark’s energy budget: how much energy goes into producing the spark channel; how much gets radiated away; how much energy is advected away into the hydrodynamics; and how much energy is delivered to a victim load. An ESD simulation toolset has been created and evolved in order to answer these questions. An appropriate, physics guided implementation for simulation can be done by gaining insight into its constituent physics and leveraging that intuition to choose a suitable numerical operator. We examine in detail the chemical kinetics, circuit discharge, and hydrodynamics to deter mine dominant regimes, values, timescales, and interactions to uncover the underlying physical dynamics. We also examine and propose model reduction schemes for high-dimensional chemical kinetics. We use past and current work with experimentally validated and theoretically-verified hydrodynamics to calculate applicability limits of the non-ionizing strong shock limit. We quantify the energy budget from a hydrodynamic perspective and demonstrate that a significant fraction of the stored energy is “earmarked” for hydrodynamic advection as an energy terminus. Lastly, we combine the constituent physics of an ESD event (chemical kinetics, circuit model, and hydrodynamics) into a cohesive, actionable toolset and obtain promising results from an isothermal test case. We then propose a viable, modular evolution of the ESD toolset based upon the performed examination of the physics uncovering dominant physical scales and the stiffness of the compositional differential system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Deep Cyber-Physical Situational Awareness for Energy Systems: A Secure Foundation for Next-Generation Energy Management

This document provides the final report for the CYPRES project. The purpose is (1) to highlight and summarize its major accomplishments and (2) to provide guidance on how its outcomes have informed and can inform important additional research and technology transfer. The goal of CYPRES was the research, development, and demonstration of a security-oriented next generation cyber-physical EMS for electric power systems that detects malicious and abnormal events through the fusion of cyber and physical data. To achieve this, the CYPRES project team researched, developed, and built a prototype of the solution, referred to as the CYPRES EMS. The CYPRES EMS is a proof-of-concept cyber-physical platform that demonstrates the management of the energy system, communications, security, and cyber-physical grid modeling and analytics. As part of the capabilities of the CYPRES EMS, the team designed and developed a suite of power system applications for monitoring, risk analyses, detection, and control that are inherently cyberaware. At its core, the project aimed to research, develop, and demonstrate a security-oriented next-generation cyber-physical Energy Management System (EMS) capable of detecting malicious and abnormal events through the innovative fusion of cyber and physical data. This approach represents a fundamental shift from traditional EMS, reimagining how critical infrastructure can be protected through unified cyber-aware and physics-aware secure data flow pipelines. The project’s cornerstone deliverable, the CYPRES EMS, serves as a proof-of-concept cyber-physical platform that revolutionizes the management of energy systems, communications, security, and cyber-physical grid modeling and analytics. This prototype implements a comprehensive suite of power system applications for monitoring, risk analyses, detection, and control, all designed with inherent cyber awareness. The system’s architecture extends from end-devices in the field through to control center applications, establishing a secure and resilient control framework that addresses the challenges posed by diverse devices of unknown trustworthiness connecting to modern power systems. Through this innovative approach to deep cyber-physical situational awareness, the CYPRES project not only advances the state-of-the-art in energy infrastructure protection but also establishes a new paradigm for how EMS can be designed, deployed, and operated in an increasingly complex threat landscape. The findings and developments from this project provide crucial insights for stakeholders across the energy sector, offering a blueprint for enhancing the reliability and resilience of our nation’s critical energy infrastructure in the face of evolving cyber threats.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cyber / Physical Security Vulnerability Assessment Integration

Abstract Both physical protection and cyber security domains offer solutions for the discovery of vulnerabilities through the use of various assessment processes and software tools. Each vulnerability assessment (VA) methodology provides the ability to identify and categorize vulnerabilities, and quantifies the risks within their own areas of expertise. Neither approach fully represents the true potential security risk to a site and/or a facility, nor comprehensively assesses the overall security posture. The technical approach to solving this problem was to identify methodologies and processes that blend the physical and cyber security assessments, and develop tools to accurately quantify the unaccounted for risk. SMEs from both the physical and the cyber security domains developed the blending methodologies, and cross trained each other on the various aspects of the physical and cyber security assessment processes. A local critical infrastructure entity volunteered to host a proof of concept physical/cyber security assessment, and the lessons learned have been leveraged by this effort. The four potential modes of attack an adversary can use in approaching a target are; Physical Only Attack, Cyber Only Attack, Physical Enabled Cyber Attack, and the Cyber Enabled Physical Attack. The Physical Only and the Cyber Only pathway analysis are two of the most widely analyzed attack modes. The pathway from an off-site location to the desired target location is dissected to ensure adversarial activity can be detected and neutralized by the protection strategy, prior to completion of a predefined task. This methodology typically explores a one way attack from the public space (or common area) inward towards the target. The Physical Enabled Cyber Attack and the Cyber Enabled Physical Attack are much more intricate. Both scenarios involve beginning in one domain to affect change in the other, then backing outward to take advantage of the reduced system effectiveness, before penetrating further into the defenses. The proper identification and assessment of the overlapping areas (and interaction between these areas) in the VA process is necessary to accurately assess the true risk.

Vulnerability Analysis, Risk Analysis, Cyber Secur↗

2016 Final Reports from the Los Alamos National Laboratory Computational Physics Student Summer Workshop

The two primary purposes of LANL’s Computational Physics Student Summer Workshop are (1) To educate graduate and exceptional undergraduate students in the challenges and applications of computational physics of interest to LANL, and (2) Entice their interest toward those challenges. Computational physics is emerging as a discipline in its own right, combining expertise in mathematics, physics, and computer science. The mathematical aspects focus on numerical methods for solving equations on the computer as well as developing test problems with analytical solutions. The physics aspects are very broad, ranging from low-temperature material modeling to extremely high temperature plasma physics, radiation transport and neutron transport. The computer science issues are concerned with matching numerical algorithms to emerging architectures and maintaining the quality of extremely large codes built to perform multi-physics calculations. Although graduate programs associated with computational physics are emerging, it is apparent that the pool of U.S. citizens in this multi-disciplinary field is relatively small and is typically not focused on the aspects that are of primary interest to LANL. Furthermore, more structured foundations for LANL interaction with universities in computational physics is needed; historically interactions rely heavily on individuals’ personalities and personal contacts. Thus a tertiary purpose of the Summer Workshop is to build an educational network of LANL researchers, university professors, and emerging students to advance the field and LANL’s involvement in it.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Expected Performance of the ATLAS Experiment - Detector, Trigger and Physics

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN promises a major step forward in the understanding of the fundamental nature of matter. The ATLAS experiment is a general-purpose detector for the LHC, whose design was guided by the need to accommodate the wide spectrum of possible physics signatures. The major remit of the ATLAS experiment is the exploration of the TeV mass scale where groundbreaking discoveries are expected. In the focus are the investigation of the electroweak symmetry breaking and linked to this the search for the Higgs boson as well as the search for Physics beyond the Standard Model. In this report a detailed examination of the expected performance of the ATLAS detector is provided, with a major aim being to investigate the experimental sensitivity to a wide range of measurements and potential observations of new physical processes. An earlier summary of the expected capabilities of ATLAS was compiled in 1999 [1]. A survey of physics capabilities of the CMS detector was published in [2]. The design of the ATLAS detector has now been finalised, and its construction and installation have been completed [3]. An extensive test-beam programme was undertaken. Furthermore, the simulation and reconstruction software code and frameworks have been completely rewritten. Revisions incorporated reflect improved detector modelling as well as major technical changes to the software technology. Greatly improved understanding of calibration and alignment techniques, and their practical impact on performance, is now in place. The studies reported here are based on full simulations of the ATLAS detector response. A variety of event generators were employed. The simulation and reconstruction of these large event samples thus provided an important operational test of the new ATLAS software system. In addition, the processing was distributed world-wide over the ATLAS Grid facilities and hence provided an important test of the ATLAS computing system - this is the origin of the expression 'CSC studies' ('computing system commissioning'), which is occasionally referred to in these volumes. The work reported does generally assume that the detector is fully operational, and in this sense represents an idealised detector: establishing the best performance of the ATLAS detector with LHC proton-proton collisions is a challenging task for the future. The results summarised here therefore represent the best estimate of ATLAS capabilities before real operational experience of the full detector with beam. Unless otherwise stated, simulations also do not include the effect of additional interactions in the same or other bunch-crossings, and the effect of neutron background is neglected. Thus simulations correspond to the low-luminosity performance of the ATLAS detector. This report is broadly divided into two parts: firstly the performance for identification of physics objects is examined in detail, followed by a detailed assessment of the performance of the trigger system. This part is subdivided into chapters surveying the capabilities for charged particle tracking, each of electron/photon, muon and tau identification, jet and missing transverse energy reconstruction, b-tagging algorithms and performance, and finally the trigger system performance. In each chapter of the report, there is a further subdivision into shorter notes describing different aspects studied. The second major subdivision of the report addresses physics measurement capabilities, and new physics search sensitivities. Individual chapters in this part discuss ATLAS physics capabilities in Standard Model QCD and electroweak processes, in the top quark sector, in b-physics, in searches for Higgs bosons, supersymmetry searches, and finally searches for other new particles predicted in more exotic models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Quantifying physical parameterization uncertainties associated with land-atmosphere interactions in the WRF model over Amazon

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to diagnose regional land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling strength in the absence of sufficient observations but subjected to uncertainties associated with model physical parameterizations. In this study, we propose a framework to quantify and reduce model physical parameterization uncertainties associated with surface fluxes and L-A coupling. An ensemble of WRF simulations with different physical schemes is used to simulate surface fluxes and land-atmosphere coupling strength over the Amazon region. The physical parameterizations investigated include cloud microphysics (MP), land surface processes (LSM), planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface layer (SL), and cumulus (CU). We perform 120 ensemble simulations using the WRF model and different combinations of six MPs, three LSMs, six PBLs and SLs and three CUs. The measurements from the GoAMAZON field campaign and satellite data are used to evaluate model performance. A Multi-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is applied to quantify the relative importance of different physics processes on L-A coupling. The Tukey’s test is used to sort schemes that have no significant differences into one group. The suite of physics that result in the best simulations of the corresponding variables are selected based on the Taylor skill score. Results show that the relative importance of processes and their interaction vary with the variables of interest. For example, CU was the most important process in modulating soil moisture, 2 m-humidity, latent heat, and net radiation. LSM showed dominant effects on 2 m-temperature and also has the largest impact on sensible heat and the lifting condensation level. The best physical parameterization ensembles show much narrower ranges of the variables of interest than the priori ensemble. Results of this study show the roles of different physical processes in modulating L-A interactions, quantify model uncertainties from physical processes, and provide insights for improving the model physics parameterizations.

Wang, Chen↗

The American Society for Radiation Oncology's 2015 Core Physics Curriculum for Radiation Oncology Residents

Purpose: The American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) Physics Core Curriculum Subcommittee (PCCSC) has updated the recommended physics curriculum for radiation oncology resident education to improve consistency in teaching, intensity, and subject matter. Methods and Materials: The ASTRO PCCSC is composed of physicists and physicians involved in radiation oncology residency education. The PCCSC updated existing sections within the curriculum, created new sections, and attempted to provide additional clinical context to the curricular material through creation of practical clinical experiences. Finally, we reviewed the American Board of Radiology (ABR) blueprint of examination topics for correlation with this curriculum. Results: The new curriculum represents 56 hours of resident physics didactic education, including a 4-hour initial orientation. The committee recommends completion of this curriculum at least twice to assure both timely presentation of material and re-emphasis after clinical experience. In addition, practical clinical physics and treatment planning modules were created as a supplement to the didactic training. Major changes to the curriculum include addition of Fundamental Physics, Stereotactic Radiosurgery/Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy, and Safety and Incidents sections, and elimination of the Radiopharmaceutical Physics and Dosimetry and Hyperthermia sections. Simulation and Treatment Verification and optional Research and Development in Radiation Oncology sections were also added. A feedback loop was established with the ABR to help assure that the physics component of the ABR radiation oncology initial certification examination remains consistent with this curriculum. Conclusions: The ASTRO physics core curriculum for radiation oncology residents has been updated in an effort to identify the most important physics topics for preparing residents for careers in radiation oncology, to reflect changes in technology and practice since the publication of previous recommended curricula, and to provide practical training modules in clinical radiation oncology physics and treatment planning. The PCCSC is committed to keeping the curriculum current and consistent with the ABR examination blueprint.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

SU-B-BRF-01: Professional Council Symposium: The Evolving US Healthcare Delivery Model, How Will the Medical Physics Profession Be Impacted and How Should We Respond?

The United States' healthcare delivery model is undergoing significant change. Insurance and reimbursement models are rapidly evolving, federal allocations are shifting from specialty services to preventive and generalpractice services, and Accountable Care Organizations are gaining in prominence. One area of focus is on the perceived over-utilization of expensive services such as advanced imaging and, in some cases, radiation therapy. Reimbursement incentives are increasingly aimed at quality metrics, leading to an increased interest in the core concepts of High Reliability Organizations. With the shift in federal resources away from specialty services and the increasing prominence of Accountable Care Organizations, we will likely be challenged to re-assess our traditional model for delivering medical physics services. Medical physicists have a unique combination of education and training in physics principles, radiation physics applications in medicine, human anatomy, as well as safety analysis and quality control methods. An effective medical physicist recognizes that to advance the institution's mission, the medical physicist must join other professional leaders within the institution to provide clear direction and perspective for the entire team. To do that, we must first recognize the macro changes in our healthcare delivery system and candidly assess how the medical physics practice model can evolve in a prudent way to support the institution's objectives while maintaining the traditionally high level of quality and safety. This year's Professional Council Symposium will explore the many facets of the changing healthcare system and its potential impact on medical physics. Dr. Shine will provide an overview of the developing healthcare delivery and reimbursement models, with a focus on how the physician community has adapted to the changing objectives. Mr. White will describe recent changes in the reimbursement patterns for both imaging and radiation therapy services, the underlying imperatives that will influence additional changes in the near-term future, and the broader changes in the medical physics workforce that may arise due to many (often conflicting) directives and incentives both internal and external to the profession. Maintaining the integrity of the medical physics profession and the high quality of medical physics services will require a shared understanding of the changing practice environment and a firm commitment to protecting the key priorities of clinical medical physics as the healthcare system transitions to a new and very different model. To be effective as medical physicists, we must learn how to provide leadership in our respective institutions. Learning Objectives: Understand the macro changes occurring in the US healthcare delivery system. Understand the likely near-term, and possible longer-term, impact on the medical physics profession. Understand some strategies for providing leadership during this period of significant change.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Understanding the Physics Representation of Deep Learning Models in Environmental Applications

Deep learning (DL) models have been popular in earth and environmental modeling and analysis, which exhibit huge potential in capturing and reconstructing the non-linearity of relevant environmental processes. They are extensively used as analytical tools or emulators for multiple domains (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and biogeochemistry). Despite their success, their internal working mechanism remains largely unknown. Such a lack of knowledge hinders the identification of physically consistent models that are fully adaptive to non-stationary climate, as well as the development of physics-informed machine learning such as physics-informed neural network (PINN). To establish preliminary knowledge and framework of such physics representation evaluation, this project focuses on an improved understanding of DL models in the environmental applications. DL models are increasingly applied to environmental modeling and prediction. However, they have been evaluated mostly from a performance perspective, and there is a gap in understanding how they represent the known physics internally. Such knowledge is especially critical when applying DL models under climate change conditions, where new inputs are likely outside the ranges of the training datasets. In this project, we reveal how the known physical processes are represented within DL models from both statistical and mechanistic perspectives. Leveraging the traditional model evaluations that focus more on the accuracies of predictions, we establish a framework that examines both the accuracy and physics representation of DL models. This analysis framework can identify DL models that make the correct predictions based on correct physics, thus enhancing the existing explainable artificial intelligence (explainable-AI) portfolio. It lays a foundation for developing novel metrics to evaluate the emerging DL models in environmental applications. This knowledge also informs the development of physics-informed DL models by revealing the direct connections between the known physical processes and specific model components or structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗