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DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extending quantum-mechanical benchmark accuracy to biological ligand-pocket interactions

Predicting the binding affinity of ligands to protein pockets is key in the drug design pipeline. The flexibility of ligand-pocket motifs arises from a range of attractive and repulsive electronic interactions during binding. Accurately accounting for all interactions requires robust quantum-mechanical (QM) benchmarks, which are scarce for ligand-pocket systems. Additionally, disagreement between “gold standard” Coupled Cluster (CC) and Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods casts doubt on many benchmarks for larger non-covalent systems. We introduce the “QUantum Interacting Dimer” (QUID) benchmark framework containing 170 non-covalent (non-)equilibrium systems modeling chemically and structurally diverse ligand-pocket motifs. Symmetry-adapted perturbation theory shows that QUID broadly covers non-covalent binding motifs and energetic contributions. Robust binding energies are obtained using complementary CC and QMC methods, achieving agreement of 0.5 kcal/mol. The benchmark data analysis reveals that several dispersion-inclusive density functional approximations provide accurate energy predictions, though their atomic van der Waals forces differ in magnitude and orientation. Contrarily, semiempirical methods and empirical force fields require improvements in capturing non-covalent interactions (NCIs) for out-of-equilibrium geometries. The wide span of NCIs, highly accurate interaction energies, and analysis of molecular properties take QUID beyond the “gold standard” for QM benchmarks of ligand-protein systems.

Puleva, Mirela [University of Luxembourg, Luxembou↗

DOE OSTI2020

Subtoxic dose of lithium cobalt oxide nanosheets impacts critical molecular pathways in trout gill epithelial cells

Increasing use of nanoscale lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) particles in nanotechnologies, including catalysis and energy storage, raises concerns over their release into the environment and subsequent biological impact. Here we study the impact of LCO nanosheets on trout gill epithelial cells – model cells for environmental exposures – by global transcriptomics using RNA-Seq. We identify molecular processes impacted by subtoxic and toxic nanoparticle (NP) doses as well as dissolved Li+ and Co2+ ions. We found that the ions, at concentrations released from the toxic NP dose, did not impact cell viability and downregulated the expression of few genes following 24 h exposure, which recovered to normal levels at 48 h. In contrast, the toxic NP dose upregulated the expression of over 1000 genes at each time point, indicating the intact NPs are responsible for perturbing gene expression and toxicity. Importantly, the subtoxic NP dose, despite having no impact on cell viability, upregulated the expression of over 500 genes at 24 h, and 150 genes at 48 h. Clustering analysis showed distinct gene expression profiles induced by the toxic and subtoxic NP doses, and functional enrichment identified pathways with distinct patterns of regulations. The impacted pathways fell into four main functional categories: metabolic and energy related processes, oxygen and hypoxia related processes, membrane binding and internalization processes, and developmental processes. Together, our observations indicate that LCO NP toxicity originates from the intact NP, not the dissolved ions, and even subtoxic NP dose impacts multiple pathways critical to the normal function of the cell.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Identification of a network of nonlinear interactions as a mechanism triggering the onset of edge localized modes

Edge localized modes (ELMs) remain a critical issue for the lifetime of in-vessel components of fusion reactors such as ITER. We study ELMs triggered when the pedestal parameters are below the peeling-ballooning limit. These ELMs occur while the pedestal recovers after an ELM crash. We identify a mechanism by which a non-linear perturbation involving many active triads—a network of non-linear interactions – leads to the triggering of these ELMs. Each active triad leads to the non-linear transfer of energy between three waves, such that the network of non-linear interactions lead to a transfer of energy between many waves. The triggering of this non-linear perturbation systematically coincides with a pedestal perturbation induced by the neutral beam injection beams and localized near the magnetic surface of safety factor q = 5. Among the non-linear interactions detected during the ELM by a bi-coherence analysis, the most active triad involves a slow frequency that is qualitatively consistent with a geodesic acoustic mode located at the same location, i.e., near the q = 5 surface.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Recent advances in plasma control and physics research in the Large Helical Device

The Large Helical Device (LHD), the largest superconducting helical system in the world, is equipped with advanced heating and diagnostic tools, facilitating plasma control and physics research. Data assimilation was employed for electron temperature control using a real-time Thomson scattering system and real time prediction code. A virtual LHD environment enabled visualization of escaping high-energy tritium ions and demonstrated that these ions impact the rear side of the divertor plate. Pioneering results crucial to plasma control have also been achieved. Real-time wall conditioning using Lithium granule dropping improved bulk ion energy and particle transport while simultaneously enhancing the heavy impurity transport. Progress has also been made in the investigation of turbulence-driven transport. At the confinement bifurcation, ion-scale turbulence decreased, while electron-scale turbulence increased. A change in the anisotropy of turbulent eddies was also observed at the confinement bifurcation. Coexistence of local and non-local turbulence was identified in electron-scale turbulence. Non-local turbulence exhibited the rapid spatial propagation of perturbations throughout the plasma, while local turbulence followed the temperature gradient. A transition between drift-wave turbulence and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) turbulence was observed with the turbulence minimized at the transition condition. Machine learning analysis was employed to evaluate the temperate and density conditions of this turbulence transition. Then, real-time control of fueling and heating was applied to maintain the turbulence transition condition, improving the energy confinement enhancement factor by 20%. In addition, evidence was obtained for collisionless ion heating by energetic-ion-driven geodesic acoustic modes and MHD bursts. These achievements represent unique contributions to the development of fusion reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Detailed study of quark-hadron duality in spin structure functions of the proton and neutron

Background: The response of hadrons, the bound states of the strong force (QCD), to external probes can be described in two different, complementary frameworks: as direct interactions with their fundamental constituents, quarks and gluons, or alternatively as elastic or inelastic coherent scattering that leaves the hadrons in their ground state or in one of their excited (resonance) states. The former picture emerges most clearly in hard processes with high momentum transfer, where the hadron response can be described by the perturbative expansion of QCD, while at lower energy and momentum transfers, the resonant excitations of the hadrons dominate the cross section. The overlap region between these two pictures, where both yield similar predictions, is referred to as quark-hadron duality and has been extensively studied in reactions involving unpolarized hadrons. Some limited information on this phenomenon also exists for polarized protons, deuterons, and 3 He nuclei, but not yet for neutrons. Purpose: In this paper, we present comprehensive and detailed results on the correspondence between the extrapolated deep inelastic structure function g 1 of both the proton and the neutron with the same quantity measured in the nucleon resonance region. Thanks to the fine binning and high precision of our data, and using a well-controlled perturbative QCD (pQCD) fit for the partonic prediction, we can make quantitative statements about the kinematic range of applicability of both local duality and global duality. Method: We use the most updated QCD global analysis results at high x from the Jefferson Lab Angular Momentum Collaboration to extrapolate the spin structure function g 1 into the nucleon resonance region and then integrate over various intervals in the scaling variable x. We compare the results with the large data set collected in the quark-hadron transition region by the CLAS Collaboration, including, for the first time, deconvoluted neutron data, integrated over the same intervals. We present this comparison as a function of the momentum transfer Q 2 . Results: We find that, depending on the integration interval and the minimum momentum transfer chosen, a clear transition to quark-hadron duality can be observed in both nucleon species. Furthermore, we show, for the first time, the approach to scaling behavior for g 1 measured in the resonance region at sufficiently high momentum transfer. Conclusions: Here, our results can be used to quantify the deviations from the applicability of pQCD for data taken at moderate energies and can help with extraction of quark distribution functions from such data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data for High-Level β-Carotene Production from Xylose by Engineered Saccharomyces cerevisiae without Overexpression of a Truncated HMG1 (t HMG1 )

β‐Carotene is a natural pigment and health‐promoting metabolite, and has been widely used in the nutraceutical, feed, and cosmetic industries. Here, we engineered a GRAS yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae to produce β‐carotene from xylose, the second most abundant and inedible sugar component of lignocellulose biomass. Specifically, a β‐carotene biosynthetic pathway containing crtYB, crtI, and crtE from Xanthophyllomyces dendrorhous was introduced into a xylose‐fermenting S. cerevisiae . The resulting strain produced β‐carotene from xylose at a titer threefold higher than from glucose. Interestingly, overexpression of t HMG1 , which has been reported as a critical genetic perturbation to enhance metabolic fluxes in the mevalonate pathway and β‐carotene production in yeast when glucose is used, did not further improve the production of β‐carotene from xylose. Through fermentation profiling, metabolites analysis, and transcriptional studies, we found the advantages of using xylose as a carbon source, instead of glucose, for β‐carotene production to be a more respiratory feature of xylose consumption, a larger cytosolic acetyl‐CoA pool, and an upregulated expression level of rate‐limiting genes in the β‐carotene‐producing pathway, including ACS1 and HMG1 . As a result, 772.8 mg/L of β‐carotene was obtained in a fed‐batch bioreactor culture with xylose feeding. Considering the inevitable large scale production of xylose when cellulosic biomass‐based bioeconomy is implemented, our results suggest xylose utilization is a promising strategy for overproduction of carotenoids and other isoprenoids in engineered S. cerevisiae .

Conversion↗

DOE OSTI2023

Signal Decomposition for Intrusion Detection in Reliability Assessment in Cyber Resilience (Summary Report)

The complexity of assuring cyber resilience for physical process interactions in connected systems such as energy grids increases dramatically as the coupling between processes becomes more direct and responsive. An example of this growing complexity is provided by Integrated Energy Systems (IES), in which various processes such as nuclear heat generation and commodity production are being directly coupled for increased responsiveness to highly variable signals such as market pricing or electricity demand. As such, the potential attack surface of the coupled processes is larger than the two processes independently. Securing these complex systems requires two-fold monitoring: cybersecure monitoring for potential malicious incursion, and physics monitoring for system tampering. Physics monitoring includes analyzing the behavior of the signals within the system for anomalous behavior. This analysis has been shown to be insufficient if approached by only data-driven machine learning and artificial intelligence (MLAI) techniques or only low-level model comparison. Previous efforts at Purdue University suggested combining high-fidelity models with MLAI algorithms as a basis for a software tool for detecting anomalies in physical processes. This work built on that suggestion, developing an advanced library for signal decomposition and analysis using both MLAI and high-fidelity physics algorithms for greatly improved anomaly detection, especially false data injection. This software can be used as part of a secure imbedded intelligence (SEI) system designed under Consequence-driven Cyber-informed Engineering (CCE) for complex coupled systems. This library established a foundation for online and posteriori analysis of digital signals for the purpose of detecting potential malicious tampering in digital signals representing physical processes. Demonstrations carried out throughout the development highlight the effective use of characterization algorithms to detect signal perturbations, particularly triangle attack-style perturbations, in three wide-ranging applications: seismic monitoring, nuclear thermal hydraulics system simulation, and custom manufacturing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Metabolic flux, metabolite, and transcript analysis uncover reprogramming of metabolism toward higher seed oil

Overexpression of WRINKLED1 (WRI1), a master regulator of glycolysis and fatty acid biosynthesis, together with DIACYLGLYCEROL ACYLTRANSFERASE1 (DGAT1), which catalyzes the final step of triacylglycerol assembly, is a promising strategy for enhancing seed oil content. However, how these regulators coordinate system-wide metabolic reprogramming at the levels of gene expression, metabolite pools, and fluxes remains poorly understood. To address this, we performed 13 C-metabolic flux analysis, metabolomics, and transcriptomics on in vitro cultured pennycress (Thlaspi arvense L.) embryos overexpressing the native WRI1 and DGAT1 homologs. Here, in cultured embryos, WRI1/DGAT1 overexpression increased triacylglycerol accumulation by 28% while reducing protein content by 34%, relative to the wild type. Embryos showed ∼20-fold and 50-fold upregulation of WRI1 and DGAT1 along with induction of WRI1 target genes in glycolysis and fatty acid biosynthesis. Genes associated with photosynthesis and Calvin cycle functions were also upregulated, whereas genes encoding ribosomal proteins and seed storage proteins were strongly repressed, consistent with the observed lipid–protein tradeoff. Flux analysis revealed that enhanced triacylglycerol biosynthesis is supported by increased flux through the Rubisco shunt and cytosolic pyruvate kinase, while the oxidative pentose phosphate pathway and malic enzyme contributed little to NADPH or pyruvate supply. Metabolomic profiling revealed extensive perturbations in glycolytic intermediates, tricarboxylic acid cycle metabolites, and amino acids. In plant grown seeds, WRI1/DGAT1 lines also showed a modest but significant increase in total lipid content. Collectively, these findings reveal how WRI1 and DGAT1 reprogram central metabolism to enhance oil accumulation, with relevance to mature seeds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of a nuclear thermal propulsion reactor startup sequence

The research presented in this article describes progress in applying stochastic methods, uncertainty quantification, parametric studies, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated via the radiation transport code Griffin to simulate neutronics. Our goal is to develop a reduced-order (surrogate) model that can be rapidly sampled with perturbations to multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums (CDs), which is itself controlled by a hybrid proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time [Λ] and effective delayed neutron fraction [ β eff ] from a transient Griffin simulation executed via Griffin’s improved quasi-static solver to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions that control the CD rotation angle. By investigating numerous stochastic approaches, we developed a dual-purpose surrogate model of the NTP system, using polynomial regression in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Stochastic Tools Module (STM). The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters, such as coefficients on the PID control or temperature (directly affecting the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate (within 5%) results at speeds orders of magnitude faster (minutes, not days of computational time) than the base model. Once the surrogate model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs as well as the effects of these inputs on the model output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some type of physical interference, or uncertainty may exist in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters, and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system for operating CDs in a functioning NTP system. This work is a scoping study of the MOOSE STM.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Pure quark and gluon observables in collinear drop

We construct a class of pure quark and gluon observables by using the collinear drop grooming technique. The construction is based on linear combinations of multiple cumulative distributions of the jet mass in collinear drop, whose specific weights are fully predicted perturbatively. This yields observables which obtain their values purely from quarks (or purely from gluons) in a wide region of phase space. We demonstrate this by showing that these observables are effective in two phase space regions, one dominated by perturbative resummation and one dominated by nonperturbative effects. The nonperturbative effects are included using shape functions which only appear as a common factor in the linear combinations constructed. We test this construction using a numerical analysis with next-to-leading logarithmic resummation and various shape function models, as well as analyzing these observables with PYTHIA and VINCIA. Choices for the collinear drop parameters are optimized for experimental use.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electron dynamics in extended systems within real-time time-dependent density-functional theory

Due to a beneficial balance of computational cost and accuracy, real-time time-dependent density-functional theory has emerged as a promising first-principles framework to describe electron real-time dynamics. Here we discuss recent implementations around this approach, in particular in the context of complex, extended systems. Results include an analysis of the computational cost associated with numerical propagation and when using absorbing boundary conditions. Here we extensively explore the shortcomings for describing electron–electron scattering in real time and compare to many-body perturbation theory. Modern improvements of the description of exchange and correlation are reviewed. In this work, we specifically focus on the Qb@ll code, which we have mainly used for these types of simulations over the last years, and we conclude by pointing to further progress needed going forward.

2D materials↗

DOE OSTI2024

Null Raychaudhuri: canonical structure and the dressing time

Abstract We initiate a study of gravity focusing on generic null hypersurfaces, non-perturbatively in the Newton coupling. We present an off-shell account of the extended phase space of the theory, which includes the expected spin-2 data as well as spin-0, spin-1 and arbitrary matter degrees of freedom. We construct the charges and the corresponding kinematic Poisson brackets, employing a Beltrami parameterization of the spin-2 modes. We explicitly show that the constraint algebra closes, the details of which depend on the non-perturbative mixing between spin-0 and spin-2 modes. Finally we show that the spin zero sector encodes a notion of a clock, called dressing time, which is dynamical and conjugate to the constraint. It is well-known that the null Raychaudhuri equation describes how the geometric data of a null hypersurface evolve in null time in response to gravitational radiation and external matter. Our analysis leads to three complementary viewpoints on this equation. First, it can be understood as a Carrollian stress tensor conservation equation. Second, we construct spin-0, spin-2 and matter stress tensors that act as generators of null time reparametrizations for each sector. This leads to the perspective that the null Raychaudhuri equation can be understood as imposing that the sum of CFT-like stress tensors vanishes. Third, we solve the Raychaudhuri constraint non-perturbatively. The solution relates the dressing time to the spin-2 and matter boost charge operators. Finally we establish that the corner charge corresponding to the boost operator in the dressing time frame is monotonic. These results show that the notion of an observer can be thought of as emerging from the gravitational degrees of freedom themselves. We briefly mention that the construction offers new insights into focusing conjectures.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the Rate Constant for NH 2 +HO 2 and Third-Body Collision Efficiencies for NH 2 +H(+M) and NH 2 +NH 2 (+M)

In low-temperature flash photolysis of NH 3 /O 2 /N 2 mixtures, the NH 2 consumption rate and the product distribution is controlled by the reactions NH 2 + HO 2 → products (R1), NH 2 + H (+M) → NH 3 (+M) (R2), and NH 2 + NH 2 (+M) → N 2 H 4 (+M) (R3). In the present work, published flash photolysis experiments by, among others, Cheskis and co-workers, are re-interpreted using recent direct measurements of NH 2 + H (+N 2 ) and NH 2 + NH 2 (+N 2 ) from Altinay and Macdonald. To facilitate analysis of the FP data, relative third-body collision efficiencies compared to N 2 for R2 and R3 were calculated for O 2 and NH 3 as well as for other selected molecules. We report results were in good agreement with the limited experimental data. Based on reported NH 2 decay rates in flash photolysis of NH 3 /O 2 /N 2 , a rate constant for NH 2 + HO 2 → NH 3 + O 2 (R1a) of $k_{1\text{a}}$ = 1.5(±0.5) × 10 14 cm 3 mol –1 s –1 at 295 K was derived. This value is higher than earlier determinations based on the FP results but in good agreement with recent theoretical work. Kinetic modeling of reported N 2 O yields indicates that NH 2 + HO 2 → H 2 NO + O (R1c) is competing with R1a, but perturbation experiments with addition of CH4 indicate that it is not a dominating channel. Measured HNO profiles indicate that this component is formed directly by NH 2 + HO 2 → HNO + H 2 O (R1b), but theoretical work indicates that R1b is only a minor channel. Based on this analysis, we estimate $k_{1\text{c}}$ = 2.5 × 10 13 cm 3 mol –1 s –1 and $k_{1\text{b}}$ = 2.5 × 10 12 cm 3 mol –1 s –1 at 295 K, with significant uncertainty margins.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

High–level β–carotene production from xylose by engineered Saccharomyces cerevisiae without overexpression of a truncated HMG1 (t HMG1 )

Beta-carotene is a natural pigment and health-promoting metabolite, and has been widely used in the nutraceutical, feed, and cosmetic industries. Here, we engineered a GRAS yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae to produce beta-carotene from xylose, the sec- ond most abundant and inedible sugar component of lignocellulose biomass. Specifically, a beta-carotene biosynthetic pathway containing crtYB, crtI, and crtE from Xanthophyllomyces dendrorhous was introduced into a xylose-fermenting S. cerevisiae. Here, the resulting strain produced beta-carotene from xylose at a titer threefold higher than from glucose. Interestingly, overexpression of tHMG1, which has been reported as a critical genetic perturbation to enhance metabolic fluxes in the mevalonate pathway and beta-carotene production in yeast when glucose is used, did not further improve the production of beta-carotene from xylose. Through fermentation profiling, metabolites analysis, and transcriptional studies, we found the advantages of using xylose as a carbon source, instead of glucose, for beta-carotene production to be a more respiratory feature of xylose consumption, a larger cytosolic acetyl!CoA pool, and an upregulated expression level of rate-limiting genes in the beta-carotene!producing pathway, including ACS1 and HMG1. As a result, 772.8 mg/L of beta-carotene was ob- tained in a fed-batch bioreactor culture with xylose feeding. Considering the in- evitable large scale production of xylose when cellulosic biomass!based bioeconomy is implemented, our results suggest xylose utilization is a promising strategy for overproduction of carotenoids and other isoprenoids in engineered S. cerevisiae.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The dynamical tides of spinning Newtonian stars

ABSTRACT We carefully develop the framework required to model the dynamical tidal response of a spinning neutron star in an inspiralling binary system, in the context of Newtonian gravity, making sure to include all relevant details and connections to the existing literature. The tidal perturbation is decomposed in terms of the normal oscillation modes, used to derive an expression for the effective Love number which is valid for any rotation rate. In contrast to previous work on the problem, our analysis highlights subtle issues relating to the orthogonality condition required for the mode-sum representation of the dynamical tide and shows how the prograde and retrograde modes combine to provide the overall tidal response. Utilizing a slow-rotation expansion, we show that the dynamical tide (the effective Love number) is corrected at first order in rotation, whereas in the case of the static tide (the static Love number) the rotational corrections do not enter until second order.

Pnigouras, P. (ORCID:0000000318959431)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Diurnal evolution of non-precipitating marine stratocumuli in a large-eddy simulation ensemble

Abstract. We explore the cloud system evolution of non-precipitating marine stratocumuli with a focus on the impacts of the diurnal cycle and free-tropospheric (FT) humidity based on an ensemble of 244 large-eddy simulations generated by perturbing initial thermodynamic profiles and aerosol conditions. Cases are categorized based on their degree of decoupling and the cloud liquid water path (LWPc, based on model columns with cloud optical depths greater than one). A budget analysis method is proposed to analyze the evolution of cloud water in both coupled and decoupled boundary layers. More coupled clouds start with a relatively low LWPc and cloud fraction (fc) but experience the least decrease in LWPc and fc during the daytime. More decoupled clouds undergo greater daytime reduction in LWPc and fc, especially those with higher LWPc at sunrise because they suffer from faster weakening of net radiative cooling. During the nighttime, a positive correlation between FT humidity and the LWPc emerges, consistent with higher FT humidity reducing both radiative cooling and the humidity jump, both of which reduce entrainment and increase LWPc. The LWPc is more likely to decrease during the nighttime for a larger LWPc and greater inversion base height (zi), conditions under which entrainment dominates as turbulence develops. In the morning, the rate of the LWPc reduction depends on the LWPc at sunrise, zi, and the degree of decoupling, with distinct contributions from subsidence and radiation.

Chen, Yao-Sheng (ORCID:0000000208354132)↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Great Inequality and the Dynamical Disintegration of the Outer Solar System

Using an ensemble of N-body simulations, this paper considers the fate of the outer gas giants (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune) after the Sun leaves the main sequence and completes its stellar evolution. Due to solar mass loss—which is expected to remove roughly half of the star’s mass—the orbits of the giant planets expand. This adiabatic process maintains the orbital period ratios, but the mutual interactions between planets and the width of mean-motion resonances (MMR) increase, leading to the capture of Jupiter and Saturn into a stable 5:2 resonant configuration. The expanded orbits, coupled with the large-amplitude librations of the critical MMR angle, make the system more susceptible to perturbations from stellar flyby interactions. Accordingly, within about 30 Gyr, stellar encounters perturb the planets onto the chaotic subdomain of the 5:2 resonance, triggering a large-scale instability, which culminates in the ejections of all but one planet over the subsequent ∼10 Gyr. After an additional ∼50 Gyr, a close stellar encounter (with a perihelion distance less than ∼200 au) liberates the final planet. Through this sequence of events, the characteristic timescale over which the solar system will be completely dissolved is roughly 100 Gyr. Our analysis thus indicates that the expected dynamical lifetime of the solar system is much longer than the current age of the universe, but is significantly shorter than previous estimates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗