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DOE OSTI2021

Propagating neutronic uncertainties for FFTF LOFWOS Test #13

The safety evaluation conducted for licensing a Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) may require modeling transients with best-estimate calculation tools that must first be validated against real-world measurements. To provide the community with a valuable benchmarking opportunity for validating SFR analysis tools and methods, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) initiated a coordinated research project (CRP) in 2018 for the analysis of the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) Loss of Flow Without Scram (LOFWOS) Test #13. The impact of nuclear data uncertainties on neutronics parameters was previously investigated based on the COMMARA-2.0 covariance matrix. Since the transient simulation results are very sensitive to certain reactivity coefficients, it was decided to employ rigorous uncertainty propagation methods to quantify the impact of nuclear data uncertainties on the best-estimate predication of FFTF LOFWOS Test #13. The DAKOTA code is used to propagate neutronic uncertainties through SAS4A/SASSYS-1 transient simulations, while taking into account spatial and reaction-wise correlations within these uncertainties. This study shows that the remaining discrepancies observed between the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) best-estimate results and the experimental measurements can be partly explained by the uncertainty associated with Gas Expansion Module (GEM) worth, which contributes the majority of the overall nuclear data uncertainty on the output from the FFTF LOFWOS Test #13 transient simulation. This study also confirmed the importance of including spatial and reaction-wise correlations of nuclear data uncertainties on feedback coefficients in the uncertainty propagation to avoid under-estimating their impact during the transient simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

A general framework for quantifying uncertainty at scale

Abstract In many fields of science, comprehensive and realistic computational models are available nowadays. Often, the respective numerical calculations call for the use of powerful supercomputers, and therefore only a limited number of cases can be investigated explicitly. This prevents straightforward approaches to important tasks like uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. This challenge can be overcome via our recently developed sensitivity-driven dimension-adaptive sparse grid interpolation strategy. The method exploits, via adaptivity, the structure of the underlying model (such as lower intrinsic dimensionality and anisotropic coupling of the uncertain inputs) to enable efficient and accurate uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis at scale. Here, we demonstrate the efficiency of this adaptive approach in the context of fusion research, in a realistic, computationally expensive scenario of turbulent transport in a magnetic confinement tokamak device with eight uncertain parameters, reducing the effort by at least two orders of magnitude. In addition, we show that this refinement method intrinsically provides an accurate surrogate model that is nine orders of magnitude cheaper than the high-fidelity model.

Farcaş, Ionuţ-Gabriel (ORCID:0000000238841580)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of recent updates to neutrino oscillation parameters on the effective Majorana neutrino mass in 0 ν β β decay

We investigate how recent updates to neutrino oscillation parameters and the sum of neutrino masses influence the sensitivity of neutrinoless double-beta ( 0 ν β β ) decay experiments. Incorporating the latest cosmological constraints on the sum of neutrino masses and laboratory measurements on oscillations, we determine the sum of neutrino masses for both the normal hierarchy (NH) and the inverted hierarchy (IH). Our analysis reveals a narrow range for the sum of neutrino masses, approximately 0.06 eV / c 2 for NH and 0.102 eV / c 2 for IH. Utilizing these constraints, we calculate the effective Majorana masses for both NH and IH scenarios, establishing the corresponding allowed regions. Importantly, we find that the minimum neutrino mass is nonzero, as constrained by the current oscillation parameters. Additionally, we estimate the half-life of 0 ν β β decay using these effective Majorana masses for both NH and IH. Our results suggest that upcoming ton-scale experiments will comprehensively explore the IH scenario, while 100-ton-scale experiments will effectively probe the parameter space for the NH scenario, provided the background index can achieve 1 event/kton-year in the region of interest. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty quantification of an empirical shell-model interaction using principal component analysis

Recent investigations have emphasized the importance of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in nuclear theory. Here, we carry out UQ for configuration-interaction shell-model calculations in the 1$\textit{s}$–0$\textit{d}$ valence space, investigating the sensitivity of observables to perturbations in the 66 parameters (matrix elements) of a high-quality empirical interaction. The large parameter space makes computing the corresponding Hessian numerically costly, so we compare a cost-effective approximation, using the Feynman-Hellmann theorem, to the full Hessian and find it works well. Diagonalizing the Hessian yields the principal components of the interaction: linear combinations of parameters ordered by sensitivity. This approximately decoupled distribution of parameters facilitates theoretical uncertainty propagation onto structure observables: electromagnetic transitions, Gamow-Teller decays, and dark matter-nucleus scattering matrix elements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Synthesis, Crystal and Electronic Structure of Layered AM Sb Compounds ( A = Rb, Cs; M = Zn, Cd): Synthesis, Crystal and Electronic Structure of Layered AM Sb Compounds ( A = Rb, Cs; M = Zn, Cd)

Synthesis, crystal structure, thermal stability, and electronic band structure of four new metal antimonides AMSb (A = Rb, Cs; M = Zn, Cd) are reported. CsZnSb and RbZnSb crystallize in the hexagonal ZrBeSi structure type, in a P6 3 /mmc space group (no. 194, Z = 2) and unit cell dimensions of a = 4.5588(2)/4.5466(4) Å and c = 11.9246(6)/11.0999(10) Å. CsCdSb and RbCdSb crystallize in the tetragonal PbFCl structure type in a P4/nmm space group (no. 129; Z = 2) and unit cell parameters of a = 4.8884(5)/4.8227(3) Å and c = 8.8897(9)/8.5492(7) Å. All four compounds are air- and water-sensitive and are shown through DSC measurements to decompose between 975 K and 1060 K. Analysis of the calculated electronic band structure shows that the Zn-containing antimonides are topologically trivial narrow bandgap semiconductors, whereas Cd-containing compounds exhibit a band inversion along Γ-Z direction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep-learning based artificial intelligence tool for melt pools and defect segmentation

Accelerating fabrication of additively manufactured components with precise microstructures is important for quality and qualification of built parts, as well as for a fundamental understanding of process improvement. Accomplishing this requires fast and robust characterization of melt pool geometries and structural defects in images. This paper proposes a pragmatic approach based on implementation of deep learning models and self-consistent workflow that enable systematic segmentation of defects and melt pools in optical images. Deep learning is based on an image-to-image translation–conditional generative adversarial neural network architecture. An artificial intelligence (AI) tool based on this deep learning model enables fast and incrementally more accurate predictions of the prevalent geometric features, including melt pool boundaries and printing-induced structural defects. We present statistical analysis of geometric features that is enabled by the AI tool, showing strong spatial correlation of defects and the melt pool boundaries. The correlations of widths and heights of melt pools with dataset processing parameters show the highest sensitivity to thermal influences resulting from laser passes in adjacent and subsequent layer passes. The presented models and tools are demonstrated on the aluminum alloy and datasets produced with different sets of processing parameters. However, they have universal quality and could easily be adapted to different material compositions. The method can be easily generalized to microstructural characterizations other than optical microscopy.

additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring rapidity-even dipolar flow in isobaric collisions at RHIC

Abstract Employing the AMPT transport model, we investigate the response of the rapidity-even dipolar flow ( v 1 even ) and its associated Global Momentum Conservation (GMC) parameterKto structural disparities within 96 Ru and 96 Zr nuclei. We analyze Ru + Ru and Zr + Zr collisions at a center-of-mass energy of s NN = 200 GeV. Our analysis demonstrates that the eccentricityε 1 , v 1 even andKexhibit subtle yet discernible sensitivity to the input nuclear structure distinctions between 96 Ru and 96 Zr isobars. This observation suggests that measuring v 1 even and the GMC parameter in these isobaric collisions could serve as a means to fine-tune the comprehension of their nuclear structure disparities and offer insights to enhance the initial condition assumptions of theoretical models.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeled production, oxidation, and transport processes of wetland methane emissions in temperate, boreal, and Arctic regions

Abstract Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH 4 ) to the atmosphere. The eddy covariance method provides robust measurements of net ecosystem exchange of CH 4 , but interpreting its spatiotemporal variations is challenging due to the co‐occurrence of CH 4 production, oxidation, and transport dynamics. Here, we estimate these three processes using a data‐model fusion approach across 25 wetlands in temperate, boreal, and Arctic regions. Our data‐constrained model—iPEACE—reasonably reproduced CH 4 emissions at 19 of the 25 sites with normalized root mean square error of 0.59, correlation coefficient of 0.82, and normalized standard deviation of 0.87. Among the three processes, CH 4 production appeared to be the most important process, followed by oxidation in explaining inter‐site variations in CH 4 emissions. Based on a sensitivity analysis, CH 4 emissions were generally more sensitive to decreased water table than to increased gross primary productivity or soil temperature. For periods with leaf area index (LAI) of ≥20% of its annual peak, plant‐mediated transport appeared to be the major pathway for CH 4 transport. Contributions from ebullition and diffusion were relatively high during low LAI (<20%) periods. The lag time between CH 4 production and CH 4 emissions tended to be short in fen sites (3 ± 2 days) and long in bog sites (13 ± 10 days). Based on a principal component analysis, we found that parameters for CH 4 production, plant‐mediated transport, and diffusion through water explained 77% of the variance in the parameters across the 19 sites, highlighting the importance of these parameters for predicting wetland CH 4 emissions across biomes. These processes and associated parameters for CH 4 emissions among and within the wetlands provide useful insights for interpreting observed net CH 4 fluxes, estimating sensitivities to biophysical variables, and modeling global CH 4 fluxes.

Ueyama, Masahito↗

DOE OSTI2022

Search for a Sterile Neutrino in a 3+1 Framework using the Wire-Cell Inclusive Charged-Current $ν_e$ Selection from MicroBooNE

A search for a sterile neutrino is being carried out in the MicroBooNE experiment within the 3+1 (three flavors of active neutrinos + one flavor of sterile neutrino) framework using neutrinos from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) at a baseline of about 470 m with an average neutrino energy of 800 MeV. The sensitivity of this search is built upon high performance inclusive charged-current electron neutrino ($ν_e$) and muon neutrino ($ν_µ$) event selections, which were utilized in the previous search for a low-energy excess (LEE) in the $ν_e$ energy spectrum at MicroBooNE. In this note, we present the results of a 3+1 oscillation fit considering both $ν_e$ appearance and $ν_e$/$ν_µ$ disappearance. Using the first three years’ BNB data, no evidence of a light sterile neutrino was found and 95% C.L. exclusion limits were calculated in the 3+1 neutrino oscillation parameter space. Notably, the cancellation between $ν_e$ disappearance and $ν_e$ appearance oscillations leads to a reduced oscillation effect in the $ν_e$ energy spectrum resulting in a degeneracy of the oscillation parameters. Such a degeneracy is expected to be mitigated by including the neutrino events from the off-axis Neutrino from the Main Injector (NuMI) beam. The prospect of a 3+1 oscillation analysis using both BNB and NuMI is reported and it is expected to considerably improve the sensitivity to 3+1 neutrino oscillations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mesh objective stochastic simulations of quasibrittle fracture

Continuum finite element (FE) modeling of damage and failure of quasibrittle structures suffers from the spurious mesh sensitivity due to strain localization. Here this issue has been addressed for deterministic analysis through the development of localization limiters. Here this study proposes a mechanism-based model to mitigate the mesh sensitivity in stochastic FE simulations of quasibrittle fracture. The interest is placed on the analysis of large-size structures, where the mesh size is conveniently chosen to be larger than the width of the fracture process zone as well as the correlation length of the random fields of constitutive properties. The present model is formulated within the framework of continuum damage mechanics. Two localization parameters are introduced to describe the evolution of the damage pattern of each finite element. These parameters are used to guide the energy regularization of the constitutive law, as well as to formulate the mesh-dependent probability distributions of constitutive properties. Depending on the prevailing damage pattern, different energy regularization schemes and mesh dependence of the probability distribution functions are used in the constitutive law. The model is applied to simulate the stochastic failure behavior of quasibrittle structures of different geometries featuring different failure processes including damage initiation, localization, and propagation. It is shown that using fixed probability distribution functions of constitutive properties could lead to strong mesh dependence of the prediction of the mean and variance of the structural load capacity. The probability distribution functions of constitutive properties must be linked to the damage pattern, which may evolve during the failure process. Such a mechanism-based modeling of the probability distributions of constitutive properties is essential for mitigating the spurious mesh sensitivity in stochastic FE analysis of quasibrittle fracture.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

On the mechanical behavior of a Nb 3 Sn superconducting coil during a quench: Two-dimensional finite element analysis of a quench heater protected magnet

New high-field accelerator magnets based on $Nb_3Sn$ superconductors are pushing the boundaries of magnet design and quench protection towards new limits. While their large stored energies and current densities result in a very challenging scenario for magnet protection, their great electromagnetic forces create also new requirements in terms of magnet design and stress management techniques. Furthermore, the strain sensitivity of $Nb_3Sn$ cables turns the electro-mechanical limits of the conductor into a parameter of the highest importance, where conductor degradation becomes a critical aspect in magnet operation. The coupling of all the above-mentioned considerations during quench is a case of special interest that adds further complexity to the design of $Nb_3Sn$ magnets. The objective of this paper is to provide a complete two-dimensional investigation of the coil and magnet structure mechanics during a quench event. Here, the analysis is performed using a combination of finite element codes that provide the necessary input for the mechanical study. The core of the modelling strategy relies on a thermal-electric model, whose results are directly used as loads in the mechanical simulation. In doing so, the stress evolution during and after a quench is obtained. We focus for this time in the analysis of a quench heater protected magnet, where dynamic effects are of less importance in contrast to other protection systems like CLIQ.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

PyApprox: Enabling efficient model analysis

PyApprox is a Python-based one-stop-shop for probabilistic analysis of scientific numerical models. Easy to use and extendable tools are provided for constructing surrogates, sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, experimental design, and forward uncertainty quantification. The algorithms implemented represent the most popular methods for model analysis developed over the past two decades, including recent advances in multi-fidelity approaches that use multiple model discretizations and/or simplified physics to significantly reduce the computational cost of various types of analyses. Simple interfaces are provided for the most commonly-used algorithms to limit a user’s need to tune the various hyper-parameters of each algorithm. However, more advanced work flows that require customization of hyper-parameters is also supported. An extensive set of Benchmarks from the literature is also provided to facilitate the easy comparison of different algorithms for a wide range of model analyses. This paper introduces PyApprox and its various features, and presents results demonstrating the utility of PyApprox on a benchmark problem modeling the advection of a tracer in ground water.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transformational challenge reactor analysis to inform preconceptual core design decisions: Sensitivity study of transient analysis in a hydride-moderated microreactor

The Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR) program aims to demonstrate a revolutionary design approach enabled by advanced manufacturing and data analytics in the design of nuclear reactors. This article discusses scoping analyses of preconceptual designs to inform TCR design decisions and the evaluation of sensitivities and uncertainties on postulated transient scenarios. The applicability of the systems codes TRACE and RELAP5-3D to TCR transient analysis are examined, and RELAP5-3D models are used to examine the transient response of two candidate core designs at multiple power levels. Then, the uncertainty quantification code RAVEN is used to quantify the effect of several design parameters on reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) progression at hot zero power (HZP) and hot full power (HFP) as well as to assess the impact of uncertainties in transient parameters for the pressurized loss of forced cooling (PLOFC).When results were compared, TRACE and RELAP5-3D showed good agreement in their ability to predict system behavior, but RELAP5-3D calculations were closer to analytical predictions for the RIA. Furthermore, models for a PLOFC accident in two designs (a UO2 and TRISO core) at multiple power levels showed greater temperature margins for the TRISO core at all power levels. Using this information, along with other scoping analyses and constraints, the TCR design team selected a power level of 3 MWth and a TRISO-based core design. For this design RAVEN was applied to vary RIA parameters in RELAP5-3D models at HZP and HFP to understand the effect on figures of merit such as peak power, fuel and coolant temperature, and energy deposition. This sensitivity study found that the inserted reactivity worth was the most important parameter controlling all figures of merit, but for insertion up to 1.5$ no failure of TCR fuel is anticipated. For constant reactivity insertions, the magnitude of the fuel temperature coefficient was found to have the greatest effect on all figures of merit under most circumstances. These results not only demonstrate the anticipated robust safety of the proposed TCR fuel form but also provide a reference for future metal-hydride moderated systems to understand RIA behavior. In the PLOFC, the impact of heat transfer enhancement due to wavy flow channel effects dominated the variance in peak temperatures, and variations in heat exchanger elevation provided the greatest control on natural circulation flow rate. Additionally, no fuel particle failure is anticipated in the PLOFC.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cosmological Constraints from Combining Photometric Galaxy Surveys and Gravitational Wave Observatories

Spatial variations in survey properties due to selection effects generate substantial systematic errors in large-scale structure measurements in optical galaxy surveys on very large scales. On such scales, the statistical sensitivity of optical surveys is also limited by their finite sky coverage. By contrast, gravitational wave (GW) sources appear to be relatively free of these issues, provided the angular sensitivity of GW experiments can be accurately characterized. We quantify the expected cosmological information gain from combining the forecast LSST 3$\times$2pt analysis (combination of three 2-point correlations of galaxy density and weak lensing shear fields) with the large-scale auto-correlation of GW sources from proposed next-generation GW experiments. We find that in $\Lambda$CDM and $w$CDM models, there is no significant improvement in cosmological constraints from combining GW with LSST 3$\times$2pt over LSST alone, due to the large shot noise for the former; however, this combination does enable a $\sim6\%$ constraint on the linear galaxy bias of GW sources. More interestingly, the optical-GW data combination provides tight constraints on models with primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG), due to the predicted scale-dependent bias in PNG models on large scales. Assuming that the largest angular scales that LSST will probe are comparable to those in Stage III surveys ($\ell_{\rm min}\sim50$), the inclusion of next-generation GW measurements could improve constraints on the PNG parameter $f_{\rm NL}$ by up to a factor of $\simeq6.6$ compared to LSST alone, yielding $\sigma(f_{\rm NL})=8.5$. These results assume the expected capability of a network of Einstein Telescope-like GW observatories, with a detection rate of $10^6$ events/year. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to different assumptions about future GW detectors as well as different LSST analysis choices.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Overview of the Langmuir probe system on the Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak (MAST) Upgrade

A detailed description of the Langmuir probe system on Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak Upgrade is presented. The system features 850 tile-embedded probes and 40 bespoke electronic modules that each have the capability to drive and acquire data from up to 16 probes in a time-multiplexed manner. The system provides spatiotemporal-resolved measurements (1 cm and ~1 ms, respectively) in the divertor region of ion saturation current, electron temperature, and floating potential. The standard interpretation of current-voltage (IV) characteristics is to apply a four-parameter fit, based on unmagnetized probe theory, which includes a linear model for the ion saturation region. In conclusion, to mitigate the effect of the magnetic field, analysis is restricted to the region of the IV characteristic, which is sensitive to only the tail of the electron energy distribution function.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of magnetic islands in permanent magnet stellarators using the gradient and Hessian methods

Stellarator plasmas are known to be very sensitive to perturbations in the magnetic field. The permanent magnet stellarator was in part developed as a solution to high machining tolerances placed on the shape properties of electromagnetic coils in traditional stellarators. However, as a consequence of this high sensitivity to the field structure, sensitivities of permanent magnet stellarator plasmas to perturbations of permanent magnet properties must necessarily be well-understood. The gradient and Hessian matrix methods have been previously demonstrated to be useful sensitivity analysis methods for modular coils. We apply these two methods to the study of island width sensitivities in both the MUSE and PM4STELL permanent magnet stellarator projects. These sensitivity methods were used to determine the relative impacts of permanent magnet parameter perturbations on island widths in the vacuum field approximation of both stellarator equilibria. The square of resonant magnetic field perturbation is used here as a proxy for island width. In particular, gradients of magnetizations of individual magnets were examined in MUSE, as well as gradients of magnet group displacements informed by device design. Three different forms of permanent magnet magnetization perturbations are investigated for MUSE, and the flux surface response to perturbations is demonstrated. The Hessian matrix method is applied to PM4STELL, illustrating the sensitivity of dominant island widths to displacements of toroidal wedge structures. These methods allow for selective direction of experimental resources toward regions of heightened sensitivity, while constraints on less impactful permanent magnet parameters can be relaxed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Combined search for electroweak production of winos, binos, higgsinos, and sleptons in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

A combination of the results of several searches for the electroweak production of the supersymmetric partners of standard model bosons, and of charged leptons, is presented. All searches use proton-proton collision data at s = 13 TeV recorded with the CMS detector at the LHC in 2016–2018. The analyzed data correspond to an integrated luminosity of up to 137 fb − 1 . The results are interpreted in terms of simplified models of supersymmetry. Two new interpretations are added with this combination: a model spectrum with the bino as the lightest supersymmetric particle together with mass-degenerate Higgsinos decaying to the bino and a standard model boson, and the compressed-spectrum region of a previously studied model of slepton pair production. Improved analysis techniques are employed to optimize sensitivity for the compressed spectra in the wino and slepton pair production models. The results are consistent with expectations from the standard model. The combination provides a more comprehensive coverage of the model parameter space than the individual searches, extending the exclusion by up to 125 GeV, and also targets some of the intermediate gaps in the mass coverage. © 2024 CERN, for the CMS Collaboration 2024 CERN

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Physics-based Models, Machine Learning, and Experiment: Towards Understanding Complex Electrode Degradation

Degradation phenomena in Li-ion batteries are highly complex, coupled, and sensitive to use history and operating conditions. In this study, we show how tracking model parameters in continuum-level physics-based models, expedited by machine learning, can be useful in testing hypotheses for degradation mechanisms. An exemplary analysis using this approach is presented for a set of lithium trivanadate ( L i x V 3 O 8 ) cathodes cycled over a range of current rates. A simple cell revival process is combined with the parameter estimates over the course of cycling to extract valuable insights into cathode evolution and eliminate hypothesized degradation mechanisms for these cathodes. The presented approach is expected to be broadly applicable for degradation analysis of other electrodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗