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At least 451 records · Page 25

Methods for Estimating Environmental Effects and Constraints on NexGen: High Density Case Study

This document provides a summary of the current methods developed by Metron Aviation for the estimate of environmental effects and constraints on the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). This body of work incorporates many of the key elements necessary to achieve such an estimate. Each section contains the background and motivation for the technical elements of the work, a description of the methods used, and possible next steps. The current methods described in this document were selected in an attempt to provide a good balance between accuracy and fairly rapid turn around times to best advance Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) System Modeling and Analysis Division (SMAD) objectives while also supporting the needs of the JPDO Environmental Working Group (EWG). In particular this document describes methods applied to support the High Density (HD) Case Study performed during the spring of 2008. A reference day (in 2006) is modeled to describe current system capabilities while the future demand is applied to multiple alternatives to analyze system performance. The major variables in the alternatives are operational/procedural capabilities for airport, terminal, and en route airspace along with projected improvements to airframe, engine and navigational equipment.

Augustine, S.↗

Enabling Recycling of Composites: Understanding the Impacts of Multiple Thermal Processing Cycles

When considering the utilization of recycled short carbon fiber feedstock materials for advanced manufacturing, understanding the material degradation behavior is essential in determining how many times a composite material can be effectively reprocessed and remanufactured. This study characterizes the degradation behavior of short carbon fiber acrylonitrile butadiene (CF-ABS) that has been reprocessed five times with twin screw extrusion. Parallel plate rheology was completed to observe the degradation in complex viscosity of the recycled feedstock materials. Gel permeation chromatography (GPC) was utilized to characterize the changes in molecular weight distribution of the recycled materials as a result of thermal and mechanical degradation during the re-processing steps. Rheological characterization, GPC, and twin-screw processing data help inform the process optimizations required to process the recycled feedstock material. Successful characterization of the degradation behavior of short fiber composite feedstock materials aids in increased understanding of the lifespan of high value carbon fiber composite materials and aids in process optimization of recycled composite materials.

Walker, Roo↗

Fragmentation dynamics of CS 2 dications and trications following S 2p ionization

Here, we present the results from a detailed study of the fragmentation dynamics of CS$_2^{2+}$ and CS$_2^{3+}$, formed in intense femtosecond soft x-ray pulses above the sulfur 2p edge, primarily through single core photoionization from the S 2p site, and subsequent Auger–Meitner decay(s). By combining three-dimensional velocity map imaging with covariance analysis, we determine the relative momenta of the ions produced in each two- and three-body fragmentation channel, at significantly higher ion count rates than conventional coincidence measurements. We shed new light on the wide range of fragmentation channels observed from the CS 2 dication and trication, including channels that involve ionization-induced bond formation and fragmentations producing undetected neutral cofragments. In the latter case, a “native frames” approach is used to isolate contributions from concerted and sequential fragmentations and extract dynamical information about each step of a concerted fragmentation process. While dications often fragment sequentially, the trication is dominated by concerted fragmentation. The main trication fragmentation channel into S + + C + + S + can be well-approximated by classical Coulombic simulations of the ground-state geometry distribution, reflecting both the nature of the trication potential energy surface and the rapid multiple ionization prior to substantial structural dynamics. This study demonstrates ways in which fundamental insights into the fragmentation dynamics of polycations following x-ray ionization may be extracted, which will be beneficial to future studies that employ time-resolved x-ray Coulomb explosion imaging to study ultrafast photochemistry.

Allum, Felix [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DE↗

Modeling the Functional Forms of Grid Disturbances

This report introduces a functional form that may be used to quantitatively predict the impacts of new grid tools and changing system qualities on the likelihoods, durations, and depths of various grid disturbances. Each disturbance scenario is modeled to have three component stages—avoidance, reactance and recovery, which together parametrically estimate one disturbance’s impacts. The modeled scenario is then placed and replicated within an analysis period to represent the likelihood or frequency of the scenario and its consequent impacts. Whereas analysts have struggled to define and apply metrics for grid resilience, the functional form introduced by this report shares units of measurement with accepted grid-status measures (e.g., numbers of customers currently experiencing a service outage). Furthermore, the integrated and averaged functional form over an analysis period provides a meaningful normalized performance metric (e.g., customer outage minutes per year) that is ultimately independent of the duration of the period of. The approach may be applied similarly regardless of the severity or frequency of the disturbances that are being analyzed. Because metrics can be chosen to be identical in both the hypothetical future and the actual historical past, the historical past eventually becomes the test of the future predictions, at least in a statistical sense. The authors originally developed this approach to facilitate analysis of the effects of transactive energy (TE) systems effects on electric power grid resilience. TE systems invite energy suppliers and consumers to actively collaborate toward the discovery of, and their responses to, the locational value of energy. The findings from this process are often embodied as energy prices, the dynamics of which indicate the locational value of energy and can further represent important grid service needs. While some academic papers claim to quantify the value of a specific TE system design toward grid resilience, the answer, in general, has been elusive. Not only do multiple and conflicting definitions of resilience and reliability exist, but countless TE systems are being invented. We conclude the following: (1) The ideal analysis should harmonize rather than differentiate resilience and reliability. Therefore, this report uses the more general term disturbance whenever the overloaded terms resilience and reliability can be avoided. (2) The effectiveness of TE systems must be mapped to underlying qualities of a TE system, thereby avoiding presumptions that every TE design offers similar advantages. The authors seek to evaluate the parametric effects of TE system qualities (e.g., spatial granularity, granularity of time steps, length of future prediction horizon) on avoiding, reacting to, and recovering from grid disturbances. Furthermore, any advantages (or disadvantages) must be fairly compared with the many alternative tools, systems, and strategies that might offer comparable benefits.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Sparsity for Gradient-Based Optimization of Wind Farm Layouts

Optimizing wind farm layouts is an important step in designing an efficient wind farm. Optimizing wind farm layouts is also a difficult task due to computation times increasing with the number of turbines present in the farm. The most computationally expensive part of gradient-based optimization is calculating the gradient. In order to reduce the expense of gradient calculation, we performed a study on the use of sparsity in wind farm layout optimization. This paper presents the findings of the sparsity study and provides a method to use sparsity in wind farm layout optimization. We tested this sparsity method by optimizing multiple farms with sparse methods and compared the results to optimizations of the same farms using traditional methods. By using the sparse method to optimize multiple farms, we found that the objective results were comparable between sparse and traditional methods and that sparse methods were 4 times faster than traditional methods on average. We expect more speedups with improved methodology and larger wind farms. By using sparse methods, it is possible to solve the wind farm layout optimization problem more efficiently, thus allowing for a more thorough study of the wind farm layout design space without excessive computational costs. Further work is required to refine the method and prepare for testing on real-world wind farm layout applications.

gradient↗

Sample Handling and Processing on Mars for Future Astrobiology Missions

In most analytical investigations, there is a need to process complex field samples for the unique detection of analytes especially when detecting low concentration organic molecules that may identify extraterrestrial life. Sample processing for analytical instruments is time, resource and manpower consuming in terrestrial laboratories. Every step in this laborious process will have to be automated for in situ life detection. We have developed, and are currently demonstrating, an automated wet chemistry preparation system that can operate autonomously on Earth and is designed to operate under Martian ambient conditions. This will enable a complete wet chemistry laboratory as part of future missions. Our system, namely the Automated Sample Processing System (ASPS) receives fines, extracts organics through solvent extraction, processes the extract by removing non-organic soluble species and delivers sample to multiple instruments for analysis (including for non-organic soluble species).

Beegle, Luther↗

Evaluating an Automated Approach for Monitoring Forest Disturbances in the Pacific Northwest from Logging, Fire and Insect Outbreaks with Landsat Time Series Data

Forests are the largest aboveground sink for atmospheric carbon (C), and understanding how they change through time is critical to reduce our C-cycle uncertainties. We investigated a strong decline in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1982 to 1991 in Pacific Northwest forests, observed with the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRRs). To understand the causal factors of this decline, we evaluated an automated classification method developed for Landsat time series stacks (LTSS) to map forest change. This method included: (1) multiple disturbance index thresholds; and (2) a spectral trajectory-based image analysis with multiple confidence thresholds. We produced 48 maps and verified their accuracy with air photos, monitoring trends in burn severity data and insect aerial detection survey data. Area-based accuracy estimates for change in forest cover resulted in producer's and user's accuracies of 0.21 +/- 0.06 to 0.38 +/- 0.05 for insect disturbance, 0.23 +/- 0.07 to 1 +/- 0 for burned area and 0.74 +/- 0.03 to 0.76 +/- 0.03 for logging. We believe that accuracy was low for insect disturbance because air photo reference data were temporally sparse, hence missing some outbreaks, and the annual anniversary time step is not dense enough to track defoliation and progressive stand mortality. Producer's and user's accuracy for burned area was low due to the temporally abrupt nature of fire and harvest with a similar response of spectral indices between the disturbance index and normalized burn ratio. We conclude that the spectral trajectory approach also captures multi-year stress that could be caused by climate, acid deposition, pathogens, partial harvest, thinning, etc. Our study focused on understanding the transferability of previously successful methods to new ecosystems and found that this automated method does not perform with the same accuracy in Pacific Northwest forests. Using a robust accuracy assessment, we demonstrate the difficulty of transferring change attribution methods to other ecosystems, which has implications for the development of automated detection/attribution approaches. Widespread disturbance was found within AVHRR-negative anomalies, but identifying causal factors in LTSS with adequate mapping accuracy for fire and insects proved to be elusive. Our results provide a background framework for future studies to improve methods for the accuracy assessment of automated LTSS classifications.

Landsat↗

Multirotor Configuration Trades Informed by Handling Qualities for Urban Air Mobility Application

Many contemporary Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), and more specifically, urban air mobility (UAM) vehicle designers are attracted to variable rotor speed-controlled designs with multiple rotors because of the great potential for mass savings compared to more traditional, variable blade pitch-controlled vehicles. These designs are based on the assumption that the stability and control of recreation or basic utility-sized drones can be scaled to larger passenger-sized vehicles. Previous work had shown the challenges in stabilizing passenger-sized quadcopters. In this study, power constraints were made less restrictive and varied, allowing more control power. Motor parameters such as efficiency, nominal voltage and current operating point, and rise time of the rotor speed controller step response were studied. By fixing the efficiency of the motor to 95% and assuming a motor voltage to current ratio of 2.0 (previously, assumed to be 1.0), the authors were able to stabilize the quadcopter in the roll axis because this allowed the vehicle to achieve adequate rise times between 0.4 and 0.8 s. This motor optimization was extended to a hexacopter and octocopter designed to the same payload size and mission as the quadcopter. The three vehicle configurations and their motor speed controllers were compared. It was found that while hexacopter and octocopter required more mass and overall power; all three configurations had similar margins required for control. However, the hexacopter and octocopter were able to use this power margin to achieve lower rise times (i.e. the vehicle responded more quickly to pilot inputs) than the quadcopter, with the octocopter having the lowest rotor response rise time of the three vehicle configurations studied.

Multirotor↗

Evidence of Multiple Reconnection Lines at the Magnetopause from Cusp Observations

Recent global hybrid simulations investigated the formation of flux transfer events (FTEs) and their convection and interaction with the cusp. Based on these simulations, we have analyzed several Polar cusp crossings in the Northern Hemisphere to search for the signature of such FTEs in the energy distribution of downward precipitating ions: precipitating ion beams at different energies parallel to the ambient magnetic field and overlapping in time. Overlapping ion distributions in the cusp are usually attributed to a combination of variable ion acceleration during the magnetopause crossing together with the time-of-flight effect from the entry point to the observing satellite. Most "step up" ion cusp structures (steps in the ion energy dispersions) only overlap for the populations with large pitch angles and not for the parallel streaming populations. Such cusp structures are the signatures predicted by the pulsed reconnection model, where the reconnection rate at the magnetopause decreased to zero, physically separating convecting flux tubes and their parallel streaming ions. However, several Polar cusp events discussed in this study also show an energy overlap for parallel-streaming precipitating ions. This condition might be caused by reopening an already reconnected field line, forming a magnetic island (flux rope) at the magnetopause similar to that reported in global MHD and Hybrid simulations

flux transfer events↗

Inferring demographic and selective histories from population genomic data using a 2-step approach in species with coding-sparse genomes: an application to human data

Abstract The demographic history of a population, and the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of newly arising mutations in functional genomic regions, are fundamental factors dictating both genetic variation and evolutionary trajectories. Although both demographic and DFE inference has been performed extensively in humans, these approaches have generally either been limited to simple demographic models involving a single population, or, where a complex population history has been inferred, without accounting for the potentially confounding effects of selection at linked sites. Taking advantage of the coding-sparse nature of the genome, we propose a 2-step approach in which coalescent simulations are first used to infer a complex multi-population demographic model, utilizing large non-functional regions that are likely free from the effects of background selection. We then use forward-in-time simulations to perform DFE inference in functional regions, conditional on the complex demography inferred and utilizing expected background selection effects in the estimation procedure. Throughout, recombination and mutation rate maps were used to account for the underlying empirical rate heterogeneity across the human genome. Importantly, within this framework it is possible to utilize and fit multiple aspects of the data, and this inference scheme represents a generalized approach for such large-scale inference in species with coding-sparse genomes.

Soni, Vivak (ORCID:0000000294969562)↗

Hybrid Recurrent Neural Network Modeling for Traffic Delay Prediction at Signalized Intersections Along an Urban Arterial

This paper studies the traffic delay prediction modeling for multiple signalized intersections along the Ala Moana Boulevard and Nimitz Highway in Hawaii. Several machine learning (ML) based approaches have been studied in the literature, and most of them focused on prediction accuracy rather than the end use of real-time control and implementation. These ML models tend to be very complex and non-linear in nature, making it challenging to achieve fast inferences and are computationally heavy for real-time signal control implementation. As such, in this paper, a simple yet accurate hybrid modeling method is proposed to predict traffic delay one-step ahead with the model made suitable for real-time implementation to control traffic flow. Since real-time road-side measurements are recorded in unstructured form, the paper also discusses other issues related to data extraction and the pre-processing process. Finally, a simple signal control loop is developed to demonstrate the proposed modeling approach, which has shown advantages in model accuracy and computation efficiency compared against several existing modeling methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An Optimization-Based Coupling of Reduced Order Models with an Efficient Reduced Adjoint Basis Generation Approach

Optimization-based coupling (OBC) is an attractive alternative to traditional Lagrange multiplier approaches in multiple modeling and simulation contexts. However, application of OBC to time-dependent problems has been hindered by the computational cost of finding the stationary points of the associated Lagrangian, which requires primal and adjoint solves. This issue can be mitigated by using OBC in conjunction with computationally efficient reduced order models (ROMs). To demonstrate the potential of this combination, in this paper, we develop an optimization-based ROM-ROM coupling for a transient advection-diffusion transmission problem. We pursue the “optimize-then-reduce” path toward solving the minimization problem at each time step and solve reduced space adjoint system of equations, where the main challenge in this formulation is the generation of adjoint snapshots and reduced bases for the adjoint systems required by the optimizer. One of the main contributions of the paper is a new technique for an efficient adjoint snapshot collection for gradient-based optimizers in the context of optimization-based ROM-ROM couplings. In conclusion, we present numerical studies demonstrating the accuracy of the approach along with comparison between various approaches for selecting a reduced order basis for the adjoint systems, including decay of snapshot energy, average iteration counts, and timings.

coupled problems↗

Operating system for a real-time multiprocessor propulsion system simulator. User's manual

The NASA Lewis Research Center is developing and evaluating experimental hardware and software systems to help meet future needs for real-time, high-fidelity simulations of air-breathing propulsion systems. Specifically, the real-time multiprocessor simulator project focuses on the use of multiple microprocessors to achieve the required computing speed and accuracy at relatively low cost. Operating systems for such hardware configurations are generally not available. A real time multiprocessor operating system (RTMPOS) that supports a variety of multiprocessor configurations was developed at Lewis. With some modification, RTMPOS can also support various microprocessors. RTMPOS, by means of menus and prompts, provides the user with a versatile, user-friendly environment for interactively loading, running, and obtaining results from a multiprocessor-based simulator. The menu functions are described and an example simulation session is included to demonstrate the steps required to go from the simulation loading phase to the execution phase.

Cole, G. L.↗

Prospect of Using Numerical Dynamo Model for Prediction of Geomagnetic Secular Variation

Modeling of the Earth's core has reached a level of maturity to where the incorporation of observations into the simulations through data assimilation has become feasible. Data assimilation is a method by which observations of a system are combined with a model output (or forecast) to obtain a best guess of the state of the system, called the analysis. The analysis is then used as an initial condition for the next forecast. By doing assimilation, not only we shall be able to predict partially secular variation of the core field, we could also use observations to further our understanding of dynamical states in the Earth's core. One of the first steps in the development of an assimilation system is a comparison between the observations and the model solution. The highly turbulent nature of core dynamics, along with the absence of any regular external forcing and constraint (which occurs in atmospheric dynamics, for example) means that short time comparisons (approx. 1000 years) cannot be made between model and observations. In order to make sensible comparisons, a direct insertion assimilation method has been implemented. In this approach, magnetic field observations at the Earth's surface have been substituted into the numerical model, such that the ratio of the multiple components and the dipole component from observation is adjusted at the core-mantle boundary and extended to the interior of the core, while the total magnetic energy remains unchanged. This adjusted magnetic field is then used as the initial field for a new simulation. In this way, a time tugged simulation is created which can then be compared directly with observations. We present numerical solutions with and without data insertion and discuss their implications for the development of a more rigorous assimilation system.

Kuang, Weijia↗

Explicit model predictive control through robust optimization

A strategy that calculates an explicit state feedback policy to regulate constrained uncertain discrete‐time uncertain linear systems is presented. We consider uncertain processes, affected by box‐bounded multiplicative uncertainty as well as bounded additive uncertainty with linear state and inputs constraints. The proposed method includes (i) the calculation of a terminal set constraint and (ii) the robust reformulation of state constraints in the prediction horizon. These features allow the derivation of the desired policy by solving a single multiparametric quadratic programming problem that guarantees feasible operation in the presence of uncertainty. Additionally, we employ variable and constraint elimination approaches to enhance the computational performance of the strategy. We demonstrate the steps and benefits of these developments with a numerical example and a chemical engineering case study.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Galileo Earth encounter - Magnetometer and allied measurements

An overview of the Galileo magnetometer observations from the crossing of the tail magnetopause at an antisolar distance of close to 100 R(E) through exit into the solar wind on the dayside is presented. These measurements are linked with correlative data from ground stations and from IMP 8 which was ideally located to serve as a monitor of the solar wind upstream of the bow shock. A time line of the important geomagnetic events of the day that provides a framework for the full multiinstrument analysis of the flyby data is presented. The observations are used to investigate apsects of the relationship between magnetotail dynamics and the separate intensifications of a multiple onset substorm inferred from ground-based data. It is proposed that the signatures associated with individual substorm intensifications are localized in the dawn-to-dusk extent even at remote locations in the magnetotail, just as they are in the ionosphere, and that the tail disturbances associated with successive substorm intensifications step across the tail towards the dusk flank.

Kivelson, M. G.↗

Distribution Development for the RDX Regional Model at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 20385

Representing uncertainty in model inputs often means finding a balance between uncertainty and physical reality. Developing wide distributions may seem conservative in principle, but this approach may lead to unrealistic model results. Characterizing the current state of knowledge of stochastic inputs presents many challenges, especially if the data available are limited or have limited relevance to the site. Relationships among these inputs may also be important to represent but are typically complex or difficult to define. Often special adjustments must be made to account for reduced credibility in particular data. If parameters are strongly related to one another, a correlation structure may be developed for input to the model. Other techniques such as regression models may be used to incorporate relationships between the information available and the desired parameters. The process of developing distributions must consider details of the model in terms of what the distribution is meant to represent. This paper uses the example of a probabilistic fate and transport model for hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) in the regional aquifer at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). For many parameters, a single draw is applied to all space and time over which the model is run, for a single iteration. This simplification is often made for many reasons, and can often be beneficial, but also adds additional complexity in the distribution development process. Defining the distributional goals as they relate to the modeling process is an important step, which should take place prior to evaluation of the data. Usually, the distributions developed are meant to characterize the average value of the parameter over the spatial and temporal domain of the model. Distribution development requires consideration of many sources of information on the parameter where available, ideally from multiple references. Examples of different sources include data from different references but also from different conditions, measurement methods, or experimental types. Depending on these conditions and the reliability or relevance of particular references, different sources of data may each contribute valuable information but have varying relevance to the site. In these cases, weighting data unequally is a useful way to incorporate this information. As an example, aqueous dispersivity data are available for a variety of rock types. Only a few values are available for the desired rock type, and this is not enough to develop a distribution. Therefore, dispersivity values from other rock types are included in distribution development but are down-weighted such that the best data have the most influence on the distribution developed. In another case, K{sub d} distributions in the model are meant to represent a known composition of multiple soil types. Data from these materials are weighted accordingly to develop a distribution for the weighted average K{sub d} across soil types. Other cases include varying reliability of different sources, and weighting data according to the confidence in these sources. In some cases, input parameters are correlated with one another. An example is advective porosity, which is positively correlated with total porosity and must be less than total porosity. Paired data with both parameters must exist to discern the relationship between the two parameters and if it is necessary to build a correlation structure into the model. In general, correlated parameters may be represented in the model by a multivariate distribution, or perhaps more desirably, capturing the correlation within the developed distributions which may be treated as independent from one another. In the example of porosity, this can be done by transforming advective porosity into a proportion of total porosity which may be drawn independently from the distribution of total porosity. This paper explores how complex data and correlations can be incorporated to meet the distributional goals of the model, using the RDX regional model as a detailed example. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Determining the kinetic rate constants of Fe 3 O 4 -to-Fe and FeO-to-Fe reduction by H 2

Steel production using coal accounts for ~ 8% of global carbon emissions. “Green Steel” is a new grand concept proposed recently to make steel from iron ores using renewable derived “Green Hydrogen” to achieve zero carbon emission. The kinetics and rate-limiting steps of iron ore reduction into iron with H 2 as a reducing agent is critically important to the success of this new technology. While reduction of Fe 2 O 3 into Fe by H 2 follows multiple steps, the past research on this topic mainly deals with the overall averaged kinetics, giving little information on the elemental and rate-limiting steps. In this work, we report a kinetic study specifically design to attain kinetic rate constants of one-step reduction of Fe 3 O 4 -to-Fe and FeO-to-Fe. Guided by thermodynamics, we show first how to create in situ the desirable starting oxide phases, i.e., Fe 3 O 4 and FeO, with precisely controlled the ratio of partial pressures of H 2 O and H 2 . We then show time-dependent raw H 2 O content data collected by a mass spectrometer and the processed reduction data to extract kinetic rate constants. We found that the kinetics of the two one-step reduction reactions follows nicely the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami (JMA) phase transformation model. The one-step reduction mechanisms and activation energy are also discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗