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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Integrating Radio-Over-Fiber Communication System and BOTDR Sensor System

In this paper, we propose and experimentally demonstrate for the first time, the integration of a radio-over-fiber (RoF) communication system and a Brillouin optical time-domain reflectometry (BOTDR) distributed sensor system using a single optical fiber link. In this proof-of-concept integrated system, the communication system is composed of three modulation formats of quadrature phase-shift keying (QPSK), 16-quadrature amplitude modulation (16-QAM) and 64-QAM, which are modulated onto an orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) signal. Whereas, the BOTDR sensor system is used for strain and/or temperature monitoring over the fiber distance with a spatial resolution of 5 m using a 25 km single-mode silica fiber. The error vector magnitude (EVM) is analyzed in three modulation formats in the presence of various BOTDR input pump powers. Using QPSK modulation, optimized 18 dBm sensing and 10 dBm data power, the measured EVM values with and without bandpass filter are 3.5% and 14.5%, respectively. The proposed system demonstrates a low temperature measurement error (±0.49 °C at the end of 25 km) and acceptable EVM values, which were within the 3GPP requirements. The proposed integrated system can be effectively applied for practical applications, which significantly reduces the fiber infrastructure cost by effective usage of a single optical fiber link.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards a NEAMS-based high-fidelity model of the MARVEL reactor

This report outlines the progress of Idaho National Laboratory in developing a high-fidelity and high-resolution model of the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation reactor. The model was developed under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation microreactor application driver at Idaho National Laboratory. The overarching objective of this activity is the development of a high-fidelity multiphysics MARVEL model using NEAMS tools, and to verify and validate NEAMS tools against MARVEL reference simulation and experimental data, respectively. This is a unique opportunity to conduct multiphysics analysis on a soon-to-be-deployed microreactor. This multiphysics model developed under the NEAMS-funded INL microreactor application driver leverages three single-physics models coupled via the MOOSE’s MultiApp and Transfer systems. The latter systems enable in-memory data transfer between MOOSE-based and MOOSE-wrapped applications. The first single-physics model, that functions as main application, leverages Griffin to model the neutron transport in the core through the discontinuous finite element (DFEM) discrete ordinates solver (SN). Several optimization flags that were developed by the Griffin developer team were beta-tested to enhance the solver’s performance. These include the combined use of using_average_xs and update_averaged_xs_on that enable to avoid expensive on-the-fly cross sections evaluations at each linear iterations in favor of evaluations of the macroscopic cross sections at each Picard iteration. The second single-physics model uses BISON to handle solid heat transfer and asymptotic hydrogen redistribution analysis in the fuel. While the model returns consistent results for the temperature and hydrogen distribution in the fuel, a mismatch was noticed in the calculated temperature in the reflector due to the value of the gap conductance used in our model. Ongoing investigations are being performed to assess the origin of this discrepancy. Finally, the System Analysis Module (SAM) was used to model the flow of the sodium-potassium eutectic in the primary loop. A first verification was also performed showing good agreement in terms of mass flow rate and inlet temperature. All mesh files were generated using the MOOSE Reactor module, removing the need for external meshing tools. Notably, this workscope represents one of the initial applications of the MOOSE Reactor module for modeling highly irregular geometries. The use of the reactor module significantly streamlined the mesh generation process. The full multiphysics mode, that combines all the single physics models, was leveraged to conduct initial steady-state multiphysics simulations to compute power, and temperature distribution in the reactor. Initial testing was performed for transient simulations as well. In this case, the new checkpoint restart capability for eigenvalue calculations was tested showing the capability for streamlined restart of transient calculations. Future work will focus on improving the fidelity of the model by performing comprehensive code-to-code comparisons. For instance, the full-core Griffin neutronics model will be benchmarked against MCNP reference results, that were provided by the MARVEL design team. Additionally, the SAM T/H model will be verified against reference RELAP-5 results for selected accident scenarios. Besides code-to-code verification exercises, the model fidelity will be improved by replacing the single-channel SAM model with a more complex SAM-Pronghorn coupled model, in which the sub-channel capability is deployed to obtain radial temperature resolution in the coolant. This model will be developed in synergy with the NEAMS thermal hydraulics team.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prospects for the expansion of standing wave ambient pressure photoemission spectroscopy to reactions at elevated temperatures

Standing wave ambient pressure photoemission spectroscopy (SWAPPS) is a promising method to investigate chemical and potential gradients across solid-vapor and solid-liquid interfaces under close-to-realistic environmental conditions, far away from high vacuum. Until now, these investigations have been performed only near room temperature, but for a wide range of interfacial processes, chief among them being heterogeneous catalysis, measurements at elevated temperatures are required. One concern in these investigations is the temperature stability of the multilayer mirrors, which generate the standing wave field. At elevated temperatures, degradation of the multilayer mirror due to, for example, interdiffusion between the adjacent layers, decreases the modulation of the standing wave field, thus rendering SWAPPS experiments much harder to perform. Here, we show that multilayer mirrors consisting of alternate B4C and W layers are stable at temperatures exceeding 600 °C and are, thus, promising candidates for future studies of surface and subsurface species in heterogeneous catalytic reactions using SWAPPS.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Temperature-Controlled Reversible Formation and Phase Transformation of 3D Nanocrystal Superlattices Through In Situ Small-Angle X-ray Scattering

For decades, the spontaneous organization of nanocrystals into superlattices has captivated the scientific community. However, achieving direct control over the formation of the superlattice and its phase transformations has proven to be a grand challenge, often resulting in the generation of multiple symmetries under the same experimental conditions. Here, we achieve direct control over the formation of the superlattice and its phase transformations by modulating the thermal energy of a nanocrystal dispersion without relying on solvent evaporation. In this study, we follow the temperature-dependent dynamics of the self-assembly process using synchrotron-based small-angle X-ray scattering. When cooled below –24.5 °C, lead sulfide nanocrystals form micrometer-sized three-dimensional phase-pure body-centered cubic superlattices. When cooled below –35.1 °C, these superlattices undergo a collective diffusionless phase transformation that yields denser body-centered tetragonal phases. These structural changes can be reversed by increasing the temperature of the dispersion and may lead to the direct modulation of the optical properties of these artificial solids.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models on the Arctic-Siberian Plain teleconnection affecting the East Asian heat waves

The frequency and intensity of summer heat waves in East Asia have increased sharply in recent decades, significantly impacting public health and the economy. The Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP) teleconnection pattern has been identified as a key driver, with ASP warming amplifying atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to extreme temperatures. This study evaluates the ability of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 models to simulate the ASP pattern across interannual variability (IAV) and intra-seasonal variability (ISV) timescales using the Common Basis Function method. The multi-model mean shows statistically significant pattern correlations with ERA5 reanalysis, with correlation coefficients of 0.90 and 0.99 for IAV and ISV, respectively. While the ASP pattern is generally well captured, models exhibit substantial inter-model diversity in the intensity and position of anticyclonic anomalies over the ASP and East Asia. Models with ASP pattern variability similar to reanalysis better reproduce extreme East Asian temperatures, whereas those over- or underestimating ASP variability exhibit lower skill. These performance differences are related to differences in simulating key variables associated with the development of the ASP pattern. Our findings highlight the role of the ASP pattern in modulating extreme heat events, as models with improved ASP simulations align more closely with observed temperature extremes. Refining ASP representations in models could enhance seasonal heat wave predictions, improving climate adaptation strategies.

Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive Evaluation of the Advanced Moderator Module (AMM)

The U.S. nuclear sector is now focusing on advancing and deploying microreactors that blend efficiency, compactness, and safety. For thermal neutron microreactors designed for high temperature operations, employing a metal hydride-based moderator presents a valuable opportunity to enhance neutron efficiency. Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has pioneered an Advanced Moderator Module (AMM) featuring an innovative containment strategy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Metal-to-insulator transition in oxide semimetals by anion doping

Dirac semimetals exhibiting nontrivial topological characteristics stand as exemplary parent compounds, offering great promise for the realization of novel electronic states. These materials also serve as a versatile platform for systematically investigating topological quantum phase transitions. In this study, we present compelling evidence of profound structural and transport phase shifts in a recently uncovered oxide Dirac semimetal, SrNbO3, achieved through effective in situ anion doping. Notably, a remarkable increase in resistivity of more than three orders of magnitude at room temperature is observed upon nitrogen-doping. The extent of electronic modulation in SrNbO3 is strongly correlated with the misfit strain, underscoring its phase instability to both chemical doping and crystallographic symmetry variations. Using first-principles calculations, we discern that elevating the level of nitrogen doping induces an upward shift in the conductive bands of SrNbO3-?N?. Consequently, a transition from a metallic state to an insulating state becomes apparent as the nitrogen concentration reaches a threshold of 1/3. This investigation sheds light on the potential of anion engineering in oxide Dirac semimetals, offering pathways for manipulating their physical properties. These insights hold promise for future applications that harness these materials for tailored functionalities.

Hong, Haitao↗
DOE OSTI2023

Beyond 15 MW: A cost of energy perspective on the next generation of drivetrain technologies for offshore wind turbines

Leading wind turbine manufacturers are racing to build larger and more powerful offshore machines. Drivetrain configurations often use a permanent-magnet synchronous generator (PMSG), in either a direct-drive configuration or coupled to a gearbox. With increasing demand for critical rare-earth magnets, new generator technologies are emerging to ensure a stable and secure supply chain. We evaluate three different topologies of radial flux synchronous generators employing high field magnets with reduced or no rare-earth content: a direct-drive interior PMSG (DD-IPMSG), a geared drivetrain combining a medium speed gearbox with a PMSG (MS-PMSG), and a direct-drive low-temperature superconducting generator (DD-LTSG). We develop a conceptual design module for each of these technologies within a larger framework for full turbine design. This provides the fairest comparison between technologies at nominal power ratings from 15-25 MW, which represent the next generation of offshore wind turbines. The analyses show that if operational expenditures (OpEx) are constant across the technologies, MS-PMSG results in the lowest LCOE with reductions of up to 7% relative to DD-IPMSG. DD-LTSG also yields lower LCOE values by 2%-3% for fixed-bottom turbines and 3%-5% with a floating platform. However, results are sensitive to OpEx assumptions, with a mere 10% increase causing the conclusions to shift.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Remote surface optical phonon scattering in ferroelectric Ba 0.6 Sr 0.4 TiO 3 gated graphene

We report the effect of remote surface optical (RSO) phonon scattering on carrier mobility in monolayer graphene gated by ferroelectric oxide. We fabricate monolayer graphene transistors back-gated by epitaxial (001) Ba 0.6 Sr 0.4 TiO 3 films, with field effect mobility up to 23 000 cm 2 V –1 s –1 achieved. Switching ferroelectric polarization induces nonvolatile modulation of resistance and quantum Hall effect in graphene at low temperatures. Ellipsometry spectroscopy studies reveal four pairs of optical phonon modes in Ba 0.6 Sr 0.4 TiO 3 , from which we extract RSO phonon frequencies. The temperature dependence of resistivity in graphene can be well accounted for by considering the scattering from the intrinsic longitudinal acoustic phonon and the RSO phonon, with the latter dominated by the mode at 35.8 meV. Furthermore, our study reveals the room temperature mobility limit of ferroelectric-gated graphene transistors imposed by RSO phonon scattering.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Time-series RNA metabarcoding of the active Populus tremuloides root microbiome reveals hidden temporal dynamics and dormant core members

The rhizosphere is a critical interface between plant roots and soil, harboring diverse microbial communities that are essential to plant and ecosystem health. Although these communities exhibit stark temporal dynamics, their dormancy/activity transitions remain poorly understood. Such transitions may enable microbes to rapidly adjust functional contributions faster than community turnover alone would allow. Here, we used RNA metabarcoding to characterize the active fraction of microbial communities on the roots of quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) in a time-series study across a natural environmental gradient. We explore cryptic temporal microbial community dynamics of rhizosphere communities at the ecosystem scale. The active rhizosphere bacterial and fungal communities were more temporally dynamic than total communities, while total communities exhibited a stronger response to site-specific conditions. Notably, some core microbiome members were often inactive, yielding a smaller “active core” subset. The fungal endophyte Hyaloscypha finlandica was the only microbe that was both present and active in all plots across all timepoints. Soil temperature strongly influenced both total and active community composition, with the fungal class Eurotiomycetes showing a temperature-dependent seasonal decline in abundance. Together, these results reveal that modulation of microbial activity levels is a key mechanism by which the plant root holobiont responds to environmental variation, and that even dominant symbionts may frequently persist in dormancy within the rhizosphere.

Community Structure and Diversity↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hematite Crystallization from a Two-Line Ferrihydrite Suspension

Rational design and synthesis of materials, determination of environmental conditions at the time of mineral formation, and definition of mechanisms in biomineralizing systems all require an understanding of the effect of multiple factors on modulating crystallization pathways. In this study, we investigate the influence of temperature, oxalate additive, aging time, and addition of seed crystals on hematite (α-Fe 2 O 3 , Hm) crystallization from a two-line ferrihydrite (Fe 2 O 3 ·xH 2 O, Fh) suspension. We also investigate the effect of temperature on the aging of spindle-shaped Hm mesocrystals, which we synthesize through the addition of sodium oxalate. The results show that Hm mesocrystals form in a temperature window of 45 °C-130 °C. Temperatures ≥ 140 °C favor formation of rhombohedral Hm, suggesting classical monomer-by-monomer growth dominates, whereas crystallization by particle attachment (CPA) is dominant between 45 and 90 °C, while the two processes compete in the intermediate temperature range. Aging of mesocrystals in the original solution at 90 °C or 180 °C leads to a slow morphological evolution towards rhombohedral crystals due to Ostwald ripening. Then, by utilizing rhombohedral Hm and rod-shaped goethite as substrates on which to assemble the mesocrystals, we demonstrate formation of complex heterogeneous structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surface heat flux and its association with the MJO in the tropical western Pacific using ARM observations

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a major atmospheric phenomenon in the tropics that moves eastward every 20 to 100 days. It brings heavy rain and strong winds, influencing extreme weather events far beyond the tropics – including flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes and heavy snow in the United States. Therefore, an improved understanding of the MJO is critical for enhancing weather forecasts and supporting better decision-making for communities, emergency managers, and the private sector. Past studies, based on short-term observations or long-term model data, have emphasized the dominant role of atmospheric humidity in driving the MJO. Our research, using long-term observations (2000-2014) from three U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites in the tropical western Pacific (Manus, Nauru, and Darwin) confirms those past findings. However, we also show that atmospheric temperature, especially in the mid and upper troposphere, also plays a key role in the MJO’s evolution from its quiet (suppressed) to convective (active) phase. These findings provide valuable insights into how the MJO evolves and may help evaluate and improve weather and climate models. Our study also examined how the exchange of heat between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere, called surface heat flux, interacts with the MJO. This flux includes components such as latent heat (related to evaporation), sensible heat (related to temperature difference between surface and atmosphere), and radiation. We found that modulation in MJO convection is well connected to surface heat flux over the tropical western Pacific. One surface heat flux component often overlooked is the sensible heat flux due to precipitation (Q P ). Since falling raindrops are typically cooler than the land or ocean surface, they can cool the surface and affect local weather. To test the impact of Q P on convection during MJO, we incorporated it into a weather model, and ran simulations for two periods: April 2009 (when the MJO was active) and June 2006 (when it was not). Including Q P reduced errors in simulating the daily peak of rainfall—by 83% during the strong MJO and 23% during the inactive phase. It also improved the timing of peak daily rainfall and reduced the overall precipitation error by about 10%. These improvements were especially noticeable during periods of heavy rainfall. Our results suggest that even small heat exchanges from rainfall can play a significant role in shaping local weather. Accounting for these effects, particularly in regions like the tropical islands, can lead to more accurate simulations of the MJO-associated precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Filtration Performance of Simulated 200 West Area Waste Feeds

This report describes the scaled experimental system and approach used to examine dead-end filtration performance of representative 200W waste feeds. The scaled system, which was originally designed and assembled to test Tank Side Cesium Removal (TSCR) system performance with higher-than-expected solid loadings in 2021 (Schonewill et al. 2021), was repurposed to conduct the current experiments at ~1/145 of full scale (based on throughput). Six experimental runs were conducted with five different 200W waste feed simulants: three using a DEF module scaled for TSCR and three using a DEF module scaled for the 200W process modules (based on the current design for the Advanced Modular Pretreatment System). Each experiment was run continuously for multiple days with an operating approach prototypic of the full-scale system. Staff performing the experimental runs monitored performance, obtained data from calibrated process instruments, and collected samples for observation and analysis. The measured data are presented with a focus on assessing DEF performance – specifically, the filters’ differential pressure response to the five waste simulants, frequency and efficacy of backwashing, and baseline recovery between experimental runs; data related to ion exchange column performance are also discussed in cases where the opportunity arose. The experimental campaign demonstrated that the DEFs satisfied their primary function of protecting the ion exchange column from solid intrusion for all the representative simulants used. The filters readily handled solids loadings of =500 ppm (and even greater), especially the modules scaled to the 200W process modules. Adjustments to the processing flow rate and reductions in feed temperature were observed to affect the rate of differential pressure increase on the filters, but neither adversely affected the ability of the DEFs to perform their primary function. Backflushing reliably recovered filter performance in all runs, although it did not prevent irreversible fouling for one simulant. The run that exhibited irreversible fouling established that both the quantity and the nature of the solids being filtered need to be considered when projecting filter performance.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Comparison of Generator Technologies for Offshore Wind Turbines

Leading wind turbine manufacturers are racing to build larger and more powerful offshore machines. Drivetrain configurations often use a permanent-magnet synchronous generator (PMSG), in either a direct-drive configuration or coupled to a gearbox. With increasing demand for critical rare-earth magnets, new generator technologies are emerging to ensure a stable and secure supply chain. We evaluate three different topologies of radial flux synchronous generators employing high field magnets with reduced or no rare-earth content: a direct-drive interior PMSG (DD-IPMSG), a geared drivetrain combining a medium speed gearbox with a PMSG (MS-PMSG), and a direct-drive low-temperature superconducting generator (DD-LTSG). We develop a conceptual design module for each of these technologies within a larger framework for full turbine design. This provides the fairest comparison between technologies at nominal power ratings from 15-25MW, which represent the next generation of offshore wind turbines. The analyses show that if operational expenditures (OpEx) are constant across the technologies, MS-PMSG results in the lowest LCOE with reductions of up to 7% relative to DD-IPMSG. DD-LTSG also yields lower LCOE values by 2-3% for fixed-bottom turbines and 3-5% with a floating platform. However, results are sensitive to OpEx assumptions, with a mere 10% increase causing the conclusions to shift.

direct drive↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nafion Passivation of c-Si Surface and Edge for Electron Paramagnetic Resonance

Effective surface passivation of crystalline silicon (c-Si) surface by reducing the carrier recombination rate has led to modern c-Si solar cells with efficiencies > 25% in both laboratory and industrial settings. Typical mainstream surface passivation techniques include high-temperature silicon oxide (SiOx), amorphous silicon (a-Si:H), hydrogen-rich silicon nitride (SiNx), and aluminum oxide (Al2O3) [1]. They have demonstrated excellent surface recombination velocity of < 1 cm/s owing to both chemical passivation (via the hydrogen saturation of Si dangling bonds at the c-Si surface), and field-effect passivation (via the band bending from the fixed charge of the dielectric layers). Recently, several groups have studied solution-based organic materials for c-Si passivation, including bis(trifluoromethane)sulfonimide (TFSI), polystyrenesulfonate, and Nafion [2, 3] via spin or dip coating. All films were processed at ambient room temperature, and a high lifetime of 12 ms, as well as a low saturation current density (J0) of 16 fA/cm2, have been demonstrated using Nafion passivation [2]. However, despite the air instability, Nafion has several advantages when introduced to PV applications: (a) Wafer quality can be measured at high throughput after several process stages. (b) It is compatible with PL mapping, compared to HF liquid passivation which cannot be performed in room ambient. (c) Nafion process is fast and poses fewer constraints on process complexity, and cleanness, compared to Al2O3 and a-Si:H passivation. (d) Nafion is the ideal room temperature passivation, which can be applied onto a small fragment of a degraded module to investigate microscopic mechanisms when studying degradation mechanisms. Edge passivation is needed for advanced characterization tests such as Electron Paramagnetic Resonance (EPR), Electrically Detected Magnetic Resonance (EDMR), Deep Level Transient Spectroscopy (DLTS), local cell current-voltage (J-V), and Suns-Voc. In such cases, the laser-damaged minicell edges will obscure the true degradation mechanisms, and Nafion can effectively passivate them without causing further degradation through elevated-temperature processes. In this contribution, we show the passivation results of Nafion on bare nCz and compare it with a Al2O3 witness. We highlight the importance of edge pre-treatment before Nafion to achieve good passivation. We show that Nafion can reach decent passivation without undergoing high-temperature processes. We also explore the temperature dependency of Nafion through photoluminescence (PL) study and demonstrate the application of Nafion under cryogenic temperature (~6 K) through EPR. Our results reveal that Nafion can reduce surface and edge Si dangling bonds at low temperatures. Thus, it can be used as an effective room temperature passivation technique for advanced characterization methods.

c-Si↗
DOE OSTI2024

PV Lifetime Project (2024 NREL Annual Report)

DOE’s PV Lifetime project was initiated in 2016 with the goal of accurately characterizing the early-life evolution of photovoltaic (PV) field performance. Different PV cell and module technologies result in different initial degradation rates due to effects like light-induced degradation (LID) and light & elevated temperature-induced degradation (LeTID). To accurately characterize the initial field degradation of maximum power (Pmp) requires the use of high-accuracy indoor IV curve measurements at standard test conditions. Therefore, PV modules involved in this study are removed from the field once or twice per year and brought indoors for measurement under constant temperature and irradiance conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Programmable Cryogenic Memory in a Ge/GeSi Heterostructure

Programmable memory components that operate optimally at cryogenic temperatures are essential for cryogenic computing architectures that seek to implement computing-in-memory. In this work, we demonstrate highly programmable memory in a Ge/GeSi heterostructure field-effect transistor (HFET). To operate, the HFET is gated to introduce positive carriers within the Ge quantum well, creating a high-conductance state. We show that this device can be set to a low-conductance state by sweeping a negative bias on the device drain, and reset it to its high-conductance state by sweeping a more positive bias on the device gate, thereby creating memory. We then determine that the device can be programmed within a 103 range of conductances using either the SET or the RESET operation. We propose that memory is achieved through charge trapping as carriers tunnel out of the quantum well, and that altering the density and spatial distribution of carriers modulates the device conductance. This mechanism exhibits endurance over 1000 cycles at temperatures ≤ 25 K, suggesting that the carrier traps are located at the oxide-semiconductor interface. As a first demonstration of programmable conductance in a Ge/GeSi HFET, this work highlights the potential of group-IV HFETs to perform as analog cryogenic memory components.

cryogenic memory↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advancing Measurements and Understanding of the Rate and Structure of Atmospheric Warming

The rate and geographic pattern of atmospheric warming are key indicators of historical climate change and play a role in modulating future changes in Earth’s climate. The past and future evolution of atmospheric temperature is simulated using global climate models while observational estimates of past warming are derived from satellite microwave measurements. Individual climate models simulate widely varying rates of past and future atmospheric warming and most model simulations exhibit greater tropospheric (lowest ~10 km of atmosphere) temperature change than satellite observations between 1979 and 2020. This project examined intermodel differences in the pattern of atmospheric warming and how these differences influence climate feedbacks that can amplify or damp the rate of global surface warming. A key result is that climate model representation of the current climate can influence climate feedbacks and the simulation of future changes in climate. Another focus of this project was to analyze how models respond to different input datasets, such as volcanic aerosols or sea surface temperature (in atmosphere-only simulations). We find that different prescribed inputs can affect simulated changes in atmospheric temperature, even though “input uncertainty” is often unconsidered in model-observational comparisons. A final focus of this research project was to consider the influence of natural internal climate variability on satellite era changes in climate. Although the Earth is warming substantially due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, the observed warming rate can be modulated by natural variations in the Earth’s climate. We find that natural climate variability has slowed the rate of tropical tropospheric warming, which explains model-satellite differences in the rate of tropospheric warming.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗