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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Cosmological parameter uncertainties from SALT-II type Ia supernova light curve models

We use simulated type Ia supernova (SN Ia) samples, including both photometry and spectra, to perform the first direct validation of cosmology analysis using the SALT-II light curve model. This validation includes residuals from the light curve training process, systematic biases in SN Ia distance measurements, and a bias on the dark energy equation of state parameter w. Using the SN-analysis package SNANA, we simulate and analyze realistic samples corresponding to the data samples used in the SNLS3 analysis: ∼120 low-redshift (z < 0.1) SNe Ia, ∼255 Sloan Digital Sky Survey SNe Ia (z < 0.4), and ∼290 SNLS SNe Ia (z ≤ 1). To probe systematic uncertainties in detail, we vary the input spectral model, the model of intrinsic scatter, and the smoothing (i.e., regularization) parameters used during the SALT-II model training. Using realistic intrinsic scatter models results in a slight bias in the ultraviolet portion of the trained SALT-II model, and w biases (w {sub input} – w {sub recovered}) ranging from –0.005 ± 0.012 to –0.024 ± 0.010. These biases are indistinguishable from each other within the uncertainty; the average bias on w is –0.014 ± 0.007.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Analytical Modeling of a Novel Transverse Flux Machine for Direct Drive Wind Turbine Applications

This paper presents a nonlinear analytical model of a novel double sided flux concentrating Transverse Flux Machine (TFM) based on the Magnetic Equivalent Circuit (MEC) model. The analytical model uses a series-parallel combination of flux tubes to predict the flux paths through different parts of the machine including air gaps, permanent magnets (PM), stator, and rotor. The two-dimensional MEC model approximates the complex three-dimensional flux paths of the TFM and includes the effects of magnetic saturation. The model is capable of adapting to any geometry which makes it a good alternative for evaluating prospective designs of TFM as compared to finite element solvers which are numerically intensive and require more computation time. A single phase, 1 kW, 400 rpm machine is analytically modeled and its resulting flux distribution, no-load EMF and torque, verified with Finite Element Analysis (FEA). The results are found to be in agreement with less than 5% error, while reducing the computation time by 25 times.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Interpreting Write Performance of Supercomputer I/O Systems with Regression Models

This work seeks to advance the state of the art in HPC I/O performance analysis and interpretation. In particular, we demonstrate effective techniques to: (1) model output performance in the presence of I/O interference from production loads; (2) build features from write patterns and key parameters of the system architecture and configurations; (3) employ suitable machine learning algorithms to improve model accuracy. We train models with five popular regression algorithms and conduct experiments on two distinct production HPC platforms. We find that the lasso and random forest models predict output performance with high accuracy on both of the target systems. We also explore use of the models to guide adaptation in I/O middleware systems, and show potential for improvements of at least 15% from model-guided adaptation on 70% of samples, and improvements up to 10× on some samples for both of the target systems.

Xie, Bing↗
DOE OSTI2017

Modeling DNP3 Traffic Characteristics of Field Devices in SCADA Systems of the Smart Grid

In the generation, transmission, and distribution sectors of the smart grid, intelligence of field devices is realized by programmable logic controllers (PLCs). Many smart-grid subsystems are essentially cyber-physical energy systems (CPES): For instance, the power system process (i.e., the physical part) within a substation is monitored and controlled by a SCADA network with hosts running miscellaneous applications (i.e., the cyber part). To study the interactions between the cyber and physical components of a CPES, several co-simulation platforms have been proposed. However, the network simulators/emulators of these platforms do not include a detailed traffic model that takes into account the impacts of the execution model of PLCs on traffic characteristics. As a result, network traces generated by co-simulation only reveal the impacts of the physical process on the contents of the traffic generated by SCADA hosts, whereas the distinction between PLCs and computing nodes (e.g., a hardened computer running a process visualization application) has been overlooked. To generate realistic network traces using co-simulation for the design and evaluation of applications relying on accurate traffic profiles, it is necessary to establish a traffic model for PLCs. In this work, we propose a parameterized model for PLCs that can be incorporated into existing co-simulation platforms. We focus on the DNP3 subsystem of slave PLCs, which automates the processing of packets from the DNP3 master. To validate our approach, we extract model parameters from both the configuration and network traces of real PLCs. Simulated network traces are generated and compared against those from PLCs. Our evaluation shows that our proposed model captures the essential traffic characteristics of DNP3 slave PLCs, which can be used to extend existing co-simulation platforms and gain further insights into the behaviors of CPES.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling batch melting: Roles of heat transfer and reaction kinetics

Development of mathematical models of heat and mass transfer in glass-melting furnaces began in the 1970s and progressed rapidly with advances in sophisticated experimental/numerical techniques and increasing computational power. Today, practically all newly built or rebuilt furnaces are optimized with these models to meet stringent quality requirements, reduce the unit costs of manufacturing, or control emissions. One remaining hurdle is to model the batch-to-glass conversion accurately enough to reliably assess the glass production rate. This article summarizes two key aspects of the batch-conversion modeling—the heat transfer and the kinetics of conversion—and reviews the current state-of-the-art approaches to simulating them. We critically examine the advantages of the commonly used heat transfer approach, but also explain that its predictive capabilities are significantly restricted by the dependence of batch thermal properties on the time-temperature history. We argue that kinetic approaches to the batch-conversion modeling would offer a significant improvement when coupled with the heat transfer approach. Finally, we summarize key areas requiring further research on the way toward a realistic model of the batch blanket.

Pokorny, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2014

Expediting model-based optoacoustic reconstructions with tomographic symmetries

Purpose: Image quantification in optoacoustic tomography implies the use of accurate forward models of excitation, propagation, and detection of optoacoustic signals while inversions with high spatial resolution usually involve very large matrices, leading to unreasonably long computation times. The development of fast and memory efficient model-based approaches represents then an important challenge to advance on the quantitative and dynamic imaging capabilities of tomographic optoacoustic imaging. Methods: Herein, a method for simplification and acceleration of model-based inversions, relying on inherent symmetries present in common tomographic acquisition geometries, has been introduced. The method is showcased for the case of cylindrical symmetries by using polar image discretization of the time-domain optoacoustic forward model combined with efficient storage and inversion strategies. Results: The suggested methodology is shown to render fast and accurate model-based inversions in both numerical simulations andpost mortem small animal experiments. In case of a full-view detection scheme, the memory requirements are reduced by one order of magnitude while high-resolution reconstructions are achieved at video rate. Conclusions: By considering the rotational symmetry present in many tomographic optoacoustic imaging systems, the proposed methodology allows exploiting the advantages of model-based algorithms with feasible computational requirements and fast reconstruction times, so that its convenience and general applicability in optoacoustic imaging systems with tomographic symmetries is anticipated.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Effects of ray profile modeling on resolution recovery in clinical CT

Purpose: Iterative image reconstruction gains more and more interest in clinical routine, as it promises to reduce image noise (and thereby patient dose), to reduce artifacts, or to improve spatial resolution. However, among vendors and researchers, there is no consensus of how to best achieve these goals. The authors are focusing on the aspect of geometric ray profile modeling, which is realized by some algorithms, while others model the ray as a straight line. The authors incorporate ray-modeling (RM) in nonregularized iterative reconstruction. That means, instead of using one simple single needle beam to represent the x-ray, the authors evaluate the double integral of attenuation path length over the finite source distribution and the finite detector element size in the numerical forward projection. Our investigations aim at analyzing the resolution recovery (RR) effects of RM. Resolution recovery means that frequencies can be recovered beyond the resolution limit of the imaging system. In order to evaluate, whether clinical CT images can benefit from modeling the geometrical properties of each x-ray, the authors performed a 2D simulation study of a clinical CT fan-beam geometry that includes the precise modeling of these geometrical properties. Methods: All simulations and reconstructions are performed in native fan-beam geometry. A water phantom with resolution bar patterns and a Forbild thorax phantom with circular resolution patterns representing calcifications in the heart region are simulated. An FBP reconstruction with a Ram–Lak kernel is used as a reference reconstruction. The FBP is compared to iterative reconstruction techniques with and without RM: An ordered subsets convex (OSC) algorithm without any RM (OSC), an OSC where the forward projection is modeled concerning the finite focal spot and detector size (OSC-RM) and an OSC with RM and with a matched forward and backprojection pair (OSC-T-RM, T for transpose). In all cases, noise was matched to be able to focus on comparing spatial resolution. The authors use two different simulation settings. Both are based on the geometry of a typical clinical CT system (0.7 mm detector element size at isocenter, 1024 projections per rotation). Setting one has an exaggerated source width of 5.0 mm. Setting two has a realistically small source width of 0.5 mm. The authors also investigate the transition from setting one to two. To quantify image quality, the authors analyze line profiles through the resolution patterns to define a contrast factor (CF) for contrast-resolution plots, and the authors compare the normalized cross-correlation (NCC) with respect to the ground truth of the circular resolution patterns. To independently analyze whether RM is of advantage, the authors implemented several iterative reconstruction algorithms: The statistical iterative reconstruction algorithm OSC, the ordered subsets simultaneous algebraic reconstruction technique (OSSART) and another statistical iterative reconstruction algorithm, denoted with ordered subsets maximum likelihood (OSML) algorithm. All algorithms were implemented both without RM (denoted as OSC, OSSART, and OSML) and with RM (denoted as OSC-RM, OSSART-RM, and OSML-RM). Results: For the unrealistic case of a 5.0 mm focal spot the CF can be improved by a factor of two due to RM: the 4.2 LP/cm bar pattern, which is the first bar pattern that cannot be resolved without RM, can be easily resolved with RM. For the realistic case of a 0.5 mm focus, all results show approximately the same CF. The NCC shows no significant dependency on RM when the source width is smaller than 2.0 mm (as in clinical CT). From 2.0 mm to 5.0 mm focal spot size increasing improvements can be observed with RM. Conclusions: Geometric RM in iterative reconstruction helps improving spatial resolution, if the ray cross-section is significantly larger than the ray sampling distance. In clinical CT, however, the ray is not much thicker than the distance between neighboring ray centers, as the focal spot size is small and detector crosstalk is negligible, due to reflective coatings between detector elements. Therefore,RM appears not to be necessary in clinical CT to achieve resolution recovery.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Vitality models found useful in modeling tag-failure times in acoustic-tag survival studies

Abstract Acoustic telemetry studies often rely on the assumption that premature tag failure does not affect the validity of inferences. However, in some cases this assumption is possibly or likely invalid and it is necessary to apply a correction to estimation procedures. The question of which approaches and specific models are best suited to modeling acoustic tag failures has received little research attention. In this short communication, we present a meta-analysis of 42 acoustic tag-life studies, originally used to correct survival studies involving outmigrating juvenile salmonids in the Columbia/Snake river basin. We compare the performance of nine alternative parametric models including common failure–time/survival models and the vitality models of Li and Anderson Theor Popul Biol 76:118–131, (2009) and Demogr Res 28:341–372, (2013). The tag-life studies used acoustic tags from three different tag manufacturers, had expected lifetimes between 12 and 61 days, and had dry weights ranging from 0.22 to 1.65 g. In 57% of the cases, the vitality models of Li and Anderson Theor Popul Biol 76:118–131, (2009) and Demogr Res 28:341–372, (2013) fit the tag-failure times best. The vitality models were also the second-best choices in 17% of the cases. Together, the vitality models, log-logistic, (19%), and gamma models (14%) accounted for 90% of the models selected. Unlike more traditional failure–time models (e.g., Weibull, Gompertz, gamma, and log-logistic), the vitality models are capable of characterizing both the early onset of tag failure due to manufacturing errors and the anticipated battery life. We provide further guidance on appropriate sample sizes (50–100 tags) and procedures to be considered when applying precise tag-life corrections in release–recapture survival studies.

Skalski, John R. (ORCID:0000000270702505)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Surrogate Model of Flexible Research Platform EnergyPlus Models to Enable Sensitivity Analysis

This letter report describes the surrogate models developed from the EnergyPlus model of Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Flexible Research Platform. Two data-driven black-box models were developed, and the outputs of the surrogate models were compared with the EnergyPlus model. The two models developed are a multilayer perceptron deep learning model, and a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model. The three factors for selecting the black-box models are scalability, computation time, and accuracy. A total of 107 input variables were the dominant variables in determining the outputs of building energy consumptions and thermal comfort. A total of 54 output variables were identified as the prediction targets, including the system- and zone-level outputs. The large set of the simulation cases were generated by integrating sensor errors into an emulator based on EnergyPlus and Python EMS, which includes advanced control sequences from ASHRAE Guideline 36-2018: High-Performance Sequences of Operation. The surrogate models were developed based on a set of large-scale simulation runs (i.e., 4,000 runs) on a cloud platform. The comparison analysis shows that the two black-box models had good accuracy for predicting new outputs for sensitivity analysis using the root mean square error metric. As a next step, the developed surrogate models will be used to perform sensitivity analysis for different sensor impacts (e.g., sensor types, sensor locations).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis of Correct Digital Controller Models from Specifications by Model Transformation (21-0320)

The design of high consequence controllers (in weapons systems, autonomy, etc.) that do what they are supposed to do is a significant challenge. Testing simply does not come close to meeting the requirements for assurance. Today circuit designers at Sandia (and elsewhere) typically capture the core behavior of their components using state models in tools such as STATEFLOW. They then check that their models meet certain requirements (e.g. “The system bus must not deadlock” or “both traffic lights at an intersection must not be green at the same time”) using tools called model checkers. If the model checker returns “yes” then the property is guaranteed to be satisfied by the model. However, there are several drawbacks to this industry practice: (1) there is a lot of detail to get right, this is particularly challenging when there are multiple components requiring complex coordination (2) any errors returned by the model checker have to be traced back through the design and fixed, necessitating rework, (3) there are severe scalability problems with this approach, particularly when dealing with concurrency. All this places high demands on the designers who now face not only an accelerated schedule but also controllers of increasing complexity. This report describes a new and fundamentally different approach to the construction of safety-critical digital controllers. Instead of directly constructing a complete model and then trying to verify it, the designer can start with an initial abstract (think “sketch”) model plus the requirements, from which a correct concrete model is automatically synthesized. There is no need for post-hoc verification of required functional properties. Having tool to carry this out will significantly impact the nation’s ability to ensure the safety of high-consequence digital systems. The approach has been implemented in a prototype tool, along with a suite of examples, including ones that reflect actual problems faced by designers. Our approach operates on a variant of Statecharts developed at Sandia called Qspecs. Statecharts are a widely used formalism for developing concurrent reactive systems, supporting scalability through allowing state models containing composite states, which are the serial or parallel composition of substates which can themselves contain statecharts. Statecharts enable an incremental style of development, in which states are progressively refined to incorporate greater detail in an incremental model of software development. Our approach formulates a set of constraints from the structure of the models and the requirements and propagates these constraints to a fixpoint. The solution to the constraints is an inductive invariant along with guards on the transitions. We also show how our approach extends to implementation refinement, decomposition, composition, and elaboration. We currently handle safety requirements written in LTL (Linear Temporal Logic)

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving North American Wildfire Prediction by Integrating a Machine-Learning Fire Model in a Land Surface Model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Respiratory Tract Lung Geometry and Dosimetry Model for Male Sprague-Dawley Rats

While inhalation toxicological studies of various compounds have been conducted using a number of different strains of rats, mechanistic dosimetry models have only had tracheobronchial (TB) structural data for Long-Evans rats, detailed morphometric data on the alveolar region of Sprague-Dawley rats and limited alveolar data on other strains. Based upon CT imaging data for two male Sprague-Dawley rats, a 15-generation, symmetric typical path model was developed for the TB region. Literature data for the alveolar region of Sprague-Dawley rats were analyzed to develop an eight-generation model, and the two regions were joined to provide a complete lower respiratory tract model for Sprague-Dawley rats. The resulting lung model was used to examine particle deposition in Sprague-Dawley rats and to compare these results with predicted deposition in Long-Evans rats. Relationships of various physiologic variables and lung volumes were either developed in this study or extracted from the literature to provide the necessary input data for examining particle deposition. While the lengths, diameters and branching angles of the TB airways differed between the two Sprague-Dawley rats, the predicted deposition patterns in the three major respiratory tract regions were very similar. Between Sprague-Dawley and Long-Evans rats, significant differences in TB and alveolar predicted deposition fractions were observed over a wide range of particle sizes, with TB deposition fractions being up to 3- to 4-fold greater in Sprague-Dawley rats and alveolar deposition being significantly greater in Long-Evans rats. Thus, strain-specific lung geometry models should be used for particle deposition calculations and interspecies dose comparisons.

Miller, Frederick J.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Fully Kinetic versus Reduced-kinetic Modeling of Collisionless Plasma Turbulence

We report the results of a direct comparison between different kinetic models of collisionless plasma turbulence in two spatial dimensions. The models considered include a first-principles fully kinetic (FK) description, two widely used reduced models (gyrokinetic (GK) and hybrid-kinetic (HK) with fluid electrons), and a novel reduced gyrokinetic approach (KREHM). Two different ion beta (β{sub i}) regimes are considered: 0.1 and 0.5. For β{sub i}=0.5, good agreement between the GK and FK models is found at scales ranging from the ion to the electron gyroradius, thus providing firm evidence for a kinetic Alfvén cascade scenario. In the same range, the HK model produces shallower spectral slopes, presumably due to the lack of electron Landau damping. For β{sub i}=0.1, a detailed analysis of spectral ratios reveals a slight disagreement between the GK and FK descriptions at kinetic scales, even though kinetic Alfvén fluctuations likely still play a significant role. The discrepancy can be traced back to scales above the ion gyroradius, where the FK and HK results seem to suggest the presence of fast magnetosonic and ion Bernstein modes in both plasma beta regimes, but with a more notable deviation from GK in the low-beta case. The identified practical limits and strengths of reduced-kinetic approximations, compared here against the FK model on a case-by-case basis, may provide valuable insight into the main kinetic effects at play in turbulent collisionless plasmas, such as the solar wind.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Modeling Heat Loss through Piston and Effects of Thermal Boundary Coatings in Diesel Engine Simulations using Conjugate Heat Transfer models

Heat loss through wall boundaries play a dominant role in the overall performance and efficiency of internal combustion engines. Typical engine simulations use constant temperature wall boundary conditions. These boundary conditions cannot be estimated accurately from experiments due to the complexities involved with engine combustion. As a result they introduce a large uncertainty in engine simulations and serve as a tuning parameter. Modeling the process of heat transfer through the solid walls in an unsteady engine computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation can lead to the development of higher fidelity engine calculations. These models can be used to study the impact of heat loss on engine efficiency and explore new design methodologies that can reduce heat losses. In this work, a single cylinder diesel engine is modeled along with the solid piston coupled to the fluid domain. Conjugate heat transfer (CHT) modeling techniques were implemented to model heat losses for a full cycle of a Navistar diesel engine. This CFD model is then validated against experimental data available from thermocouples embedded inside the piston surface. The overall predictions from the model match closely with the experimental observations. The validated model is further used to explore the benefits of thermal barrier coatings (TBC) on piston bowls. The effect of TBC coatings were modeled as a thermal resistance in the heat transfer models. Full cycle 3D engine simulations provide quantitative insights into heat loss and thus calculate the efficiency gain by the use of TBC coatings. The work establishes a validated modeling framework for CHT modeling in reciprocating engine simulations.

Kundu, Prithwish↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building a machine learning surrogate model for wildfire activities within a global Earth system model

Abstract. Wildfire is an important ecosystem process, influencing land biogeophysical and biogeochemical dynamics and atmospheric composition. Fire-driven loss of vegetation cover, for example, directly modifies the surface energy budget as a consequence of changing albedo, surface roughness, and partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes. Carbon dioxide and methane emitted by fires contribute to a positive atmospheric forcing, whereas emissions of carbonaceous aerosols may contribute to surface cooling. Process-based modeling of wildfires in Earth system land models is challenging due to limited understanding of human, climate, and ecosystem controls on fire counts, fire size, and burned area. Integration of mechanistic wildfire models within Earth system models requires careful parameter calibration, which is computationally expensive and subject to equifinality. To explore alternative approaches, we present a deep neural network (DNN) scheme that surrogates the process-based wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) interface. The DNN wildfire model accurately simulates observed burned area with over 90 % higher accuracy with a large reduction in parameterization time compared with the current process-based wildfire model. The surrogate wildfire model successfully captured the observed monthly regional burned area during validation period 2011 to 2015 (coefficient of determination, R2=0.93). Since the DNN wildfire model has the same input and output requirements as the E3SM process-based wildfire model, our results demonstrate the applicability of machine learning for high accuracy and efficient large-scale land model development and predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China (Lau et al. 2000). Multiple observation platforms (e.g., soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind seafarers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes, associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets (Johnson and Ciesielski 2002) and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional climate model and a cloud-resolving model are used to perform multi-day integrations to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil - precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Atlantic River during SCSMEX. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CASE), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences are also performed to understand the processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes with very fine spatial and temporal resolution. One of the major characteristics of CRMs is an explicit interaction between clouds, radiation and the land/ocean surface. It is for this reason that GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) has formed the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) expressly for the purpose of improving the representation of the moist processes in large-scale models using CRMs. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM and is used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea monsoon in 1998. The BRUCE model includes the same land surface model, cloud physics, and radiation scheme used in the regional climate model. A comparison between the results from the GCE model and regional climate model is performed.

Tao, W. K.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Directly aligned with the expansion of cities is urban sprawl. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Strategies that can be directly or indirectly implemented to help remediate air quality problems in cities and that can be accepted by political decision makers and the general public are now being explored to help bring down air pollutants and improve air quality. The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models, particularly the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to the meteorology component of the CMAQ model focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how ozone and air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data have been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the State Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta s growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rationale decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Spatial Growth Modeling and High Resolution Remote Sensing Data Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include business as usual and smart growth scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS lkm land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the Georgia Environmental Protection Division to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta s growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rational decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗