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At least 451 records · Page 25

Duke Energy Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study

Duke Energy has partnered with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate pathways to achieving their carbon-free targets and to assess the operational impacts of the resulting system. This report details findings from Phase II of the Duke Low Carbon Resource Integration study, which consisted of three separate but interrelated analyses: (1) a resource assessment exploring the technical and economic potential and characteristics of wind and solar resources in the Carolinas; (2) capacity expansion modeling identifying the least-cost investment pathways for achieving 70% CO 2 emissions reductions in North Carolina by 2030 and a net-zero electricity system by 2050; and (3) detailed production cost modeling of power system operations at the higher shares of low- and zero-carbon emitting generation sources, informed by the capacity expansion modeling portion of the analysis. The analysis finds that Duke Energy can approach the 2030 and 2050 emissions target in North Carolina through investment in a combination of solar, wind, and storage along with maintaining its existing nuclear fleet. The average cost of CO 2 abatement in the Carolinas through 2021-2050 is on the order of $\$27-33$ per metric ton (range of $\$9-34$ per metric ton across key sensitivities).Duke Energy can expected increased interchange with neighbors to help balance higher levels of solar, although the ability to do this will depend on whether neighboring regions also move to integrate more carbon-free resources. As Duke Energy moves toward both the 2030 and 2050 targets, addressing energy needs during the winter peak period becomes particularly important, and the system relies on the availability of resources such as renewable or hydrogen combustion turbines, seasonal storage, or other similar technologies that are dispatchable but able to operate at low capacity factors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Enhanced Menshutkin S N 2 Reactivity in Mesoporous Silica: The Influence of Surface Catalysis and Confinement

A significant enhancement in the Menshutkin S N 2 reaction between 1-methylimidazole (MeIm) and methyl thiocyanate (MeSCN) is observed when the reaction is confined in the nanoscale silica pores of MCM41 and SBA15. The experiments in the silica pores are conducted without surrounding bulk reaction mixture. The influences of temperature, pore radius, and surface chemistry on the kinetics of the confined reaction are analyzed with time-dependent infrared spectroscopy, molecular dynamics simulations, and ab initio calculations. The rate constant of the pseudo-first order reaction increases with decreasing pore size, and the activation energy is found to decrease by 5.6 kJ/mol in the smallest pore studied (2.8 nm) relative to the bulk reaction. The rate constant dependence on pore size is accurately described by a two-state model in which molecules within the 4.6 Å interfacial layer experience a 2.4-fold rate constant increase relative to those reacting at the bulk rate further away from the interface. The removal of polar silanol groups from the silica surface via passivation with trimethylsilyl chloride results in bulk-like kinetics despite a reduction in the pore diameter, demonstrating the role of silanols as catalytic sites. Here, electronic structure calculations of the energy profile on a model silica surface confirm that silanol groups, particularly those of the vicinal type, can reduce the activation energy and reaction endothermicity through the donation of hydrogen bonds to the reactant, transition state, and product complexes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Improved Heralded Single-Photon Source with a Photon-Number-Resolving Superconducting Nanowire Detector

Deterministic generation of single photons is essential for many quantum information technologies. A bulk optical nonlinearity emitting a photon pair, where the measurement of one of the photons heralds the presence of the other, is commonly used with the caveat that the single-photon emission rate is constrained due to a trade-off between multiphoton events and pair emission rate. Using an efficient and low noise photon-number-resolving superconducting nanowire detector we herald, in real time, a single photon at telecommunication wavelength. We perform a second-order photon correlation g 2 ( 0 ) measurement of the signal mode conditioned on the measured photon number of the idler mode for various pump powers and demonstrate an improvement of a heralded single-photon source. We develop an analytical model using a phase-space formalism that encompasses all multiphoton effects and relevant imperfections, such as loss and multiple Schmidt modes. We perform a maximum-likelihood fit to test the agreement of the model to the data and extract the best-fit mean photon number μ of the pair source for each pump power. A maximum reduction of 0.118 ± 0.012 in the photon g 2 ( 0 ) correlation function at μ = 0.327 ± 0.007 is obtained, indicating a strong suppression of multiphoton emissions. For a fixed g 2 ( 0 ) = 7 × 10 − 3 , we increase the single pair generation probability by 25%. Our experiment, built using fiber-coupled and off-the-shelf components, delineates a path to engineering ideal sources of single photons.

Davis, Samantha I.↗

Promoting the regulatory acceptance of combined ion and neutron irradiation for material degradation in nuclear reactors

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program within the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy has developed its current recommendation for promoting the use of combined ion irradiation and neutron irradiation for the accelerated qualification of materials to be deployed in nuclear reactors. This plan is intended to provide a collaborative path forward that can be adopted by academia, national laboratories, and industry, and has been developed with input from the regulatory research arm of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). To deploy new materials or materials manufactured with new technologies, such as additive manufacturing, materials must be evaluated for reactor-induced degradation from the combination of harsh temperatures, corrosive environments, and radiation fields. However, rapid deployment of materials necessitates accelerated testing methods rather than relying on years of neutron irradiation in a material test reactor. Ion irradiation has demonstrated success in reproducing material microstructure and select property evolution resulting from neutron irradiation with three to four orders of magnitude reduction in time and cost, making it an ideal candidate for accelerated irradiation testing. This presentation provides context governing both the scientific and regulatory aspects of the proposed goal. The discussion is aimed at a broad audience including researchers from industry, national laboratories, and academia. The recommended path forward is presented as a conceptual framework of specific steps. In brief, the strategy entails developing an integrated ion and neutron irradiation test plan for the material property of interest based on the fundamental tenet of the linkage of microstructure and properties in materials. Physics-based modeling interprets ion irradiation data and predicts neutron irradiation microstructure and properties with uncertainty bounds. The first round of testing is sufficient for an initial licensing application using a risk-informed approach, while a minimum required neutron irradiation test plan reduces cost and time requirements. A surveillance program with witness specimens in-reactor provides additional data over time to improve model predictions to higher damage levels and further reduce uncertainty bounds, which can be used for license extensions or longer lifetimes in new license applications.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Domain-decomposition nonlinear manifold reduced order model

This software combines nonlinear-manifold reduced order models (NM-ROMs) with domain decomposition (DD) techniques. NM-ROMs, which utilize a shallow, sparse autoencoder trained with full order model (FOM) snapshot data, approximate the FOM state on a nonlinear manifold. These models offer advantages over linear-subspace ROMs (LS-ROMs) particularly in scenarios with slowly decaying Kolmogorov n-width. However, the training of NM-ROMs involves a number of parameters that scale with the size of the FOM, and storing high-dimensional FOM snapshots can significantly increase the cost of ROM training for extreme-scale problems. To mitigate these costs, the software employs DD to partition the FOM into smaller subdomains, computes NM-ROMs for each, and then integrates these to form a global NM-ROM. This strategy offers multiple benefits: it enables parallel training of subdomain NM-ROMs, reduces the number of parameters needed, decreases the dimensional requirements of subdomain FOM training data, and allows for customization to the unique characteristics of each FOM subdomain. The use of a shallow, sparse autoencoder architecture in each subdomain NM-ROM facilitates the application of hyper-reduction (HR), simplifying the nonlinear complexities and enhancing computational speed. This software marks the inaugural application of NM-ROM combined with HR to a DD problem. It features an algebraic DD reformulation of the FOM, training of NM-ROMs with HR for each subdomain, and employs a sequential quadratic programming (SQP) solver for the evaluation of the coupled global NMROM. The effectiveness of the DD NM-ROM with HR is numerically demonstrated on the 2D steady-state Burgers' equation, showing an order of magnitude improvement in accuracy over the DD LS-ROM with HR.

Diaz, AlejandroN↗

Finite-rate entrainment effects on nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions in staged combustors

Axially staged combustors offer the potential for achieving low NO x emissions from gas turbines at the elevated temperatures required to achieve at least 65% combined cycle efficiencies. While there is evidence that premixing between the main burner products and secondary stream reduces NO x , it is important to characterize the specific requirements needed to achieve low emissions at gas turbine conditions. This study examines the sensitivity of NO x to finite-rate, large-scale entrainment of the main and secondary streams under the simplifying assumption of infinitely-fast small-scale mixing. Essentially, this allows us to isolate the effects of limited large-scale entrainment rates by using a homogeneous/uniform condition for the entrained and reacting gases. We use a reduced-order reactor network model to examine a generic staged-combustor whose inputs are physical time scales that embody the finite-rate entrainment characteristics. With simulations conducted over a large parameter space at typical operating conditions (25 atm, 650 K air), the results show that, even when small-scale mixing is infinitely fast and the reaction zone is uniform, entrainment significantly affects NO x emissions due to its influence on the equivalence ratio — and thus the temperature and time — at which the entrained mixture ignites. Fuel-air staging is shown to be vital to NO x reduction in most practical cases where entrainment times exceed roughly 1 ms and the secondary stream finishes entraining before the main burner products. A constrained NO x minimization indicates that using the leanest possible main burner and re-routing as much air as possible to the secondary stage is key to low NO x with finite-rate entrainment; for example, less than 10 ppm NO x can be achieved if the secondary stage contains 20% of the total mass flow.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Challenging conventional assumptions in PV: a high-throughput open-air approach to low-cost perovskite module production

Perovskite solar modules (PSMs) offer a promising pathway to low-cost photovoltaics, yet their commercialization is challenged by manufacturing scalability, device uniformity, additive costs, interlayer complexity, and module stability. This study introduces a comprehensive technoeconomic analysis of single junction PSM's and projections for tandem perovskite-Si modules that integrate all materials and manufacturing steps, module performances, projected lifetimes, and manufacturing costs across scales. Here, we highlight an open-air manufacturing approach to fabricate all active layers of serially interconnected PSMs, including electrodes and charge transport layers, enabling high-throughput production without inert or vacuum environments. The analysis reveals two orders of magnitude throughput enhancement and cost reductions of 24% in all-open-air production, escalating to over 60% at 1 GW factory capacity compared to conventional methods. Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) projections for utility-scale installations over 30 years, accounting for module replacement and recycling, demonstrate the potential to achieve the 2030 US target of $0.03 per kWh with realistic 7–11-year PSM lifetimes, outperforming incumbent silicon-based modules. Neither four terminal (4T) nor two terminal (2T) tandem-Si PSMs improve over single junction perovskite or silicon LCOE regardless of higher efficiencies at any modeled lifetime. Addressing PSM technical challenges with a cost-modeling framework guides commercialization efforts and provides a convincing pathway for challenging incumbent Si-based PV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Design of an Ara h 2 hypoallergen from conformational epitopes

Abstract Introduction Adverse reactions are relatively common during peanut oral immunotherapy. To reduce the risk to the patient, some researchers have proposed modifying the allergen to reduce IgE reactivity, creating a putative hypoallergen. Analysis of recently cloned human IgG from patients treated with peanut immunotherapy suggested that there are three common conformational epitopes for the major peanut allergen Ara h 2. We sought to test if structural information on these epitopes could indicate mutagenesis targets for designing a hypoallergen and evaluated the reduction in IgE binding via immunochemistry and a mouse model of passive cutaneous anaphylaxis (PCA). Methods X‐ray crystallography characterized the conformational epitopes in detail, followed by mutational analysis of key residues to modify monoclonal antibody (mAb) and serum IgE binding, assessed by ELISA and biolayer interferometry. A designed Ara h 2 hypoallergen was tested for reduced vascularization in mouse PCA experiments using pooled peanut allergic patient serum. Results A ternary crystal structure of Ara h 2 in complex with patient antibodies 13T1 and 13T5 was determined. Site‐specific mutants were designed that reduced 13T1, 13T5, and 22S1 mAbs binding by orders of magnitude. By combining designed mutations from the three major conformational bins, a hexamutant (Ara h 2 E46R, E89R, E97R, E114R, Q146A, R147E) was created that reduced IgE binding in serum from allergic patients. Further, in the PCA model where mice were primed with peanut allergic patient serum, reactivity upon allergen challenge was significantly decreased using the hexamutant. Conclusion These studies demonstrate that prior knowledge of common conformational epitopes can be used to engineer reduced IgE reactivity, an important first step in hypoallergen design.

Allergy↗

Coupling of regional geophysics and local soil-structure models in the EQSIM fault-to-structure earthquake simulation framework

Accurate understanding and quantification of the risk to critical infrastructure posed by future large earthquakes continues to be a very challenging problem. Earthquake phenomena are quite complex and traditional approaches to predicting ground motions for future earthquake events have historically been empirically based whereby measured ground motion data from historical earthquakes are homogenized into a common data set and the ground motions for future postulated earthquakes are probabilistically derived based on the historical observations. This procedure has recognized significant limitations, principally due to the fact that earthquake ground motions tend to be dictated by the particular earthquake fault rupture and geologic conditions at a given site and are thus very site-specific. Historical earthquakes recorded at different locations are often only marginally representative. There has been strong and increasing interest in utilizing large-scale, physics-based regional simulations to advance the ability to accurately predict ground motions and associated infrastructure response. However, the computational requirements for simulations at frequencies of engineering interest have proven a major barrier to employing regional scale simulations. In a U.S. Department of Energy Exascale Computing Initiative project, the EQSIM application development is underway to create a framework for fault-to-structure simulations. This framework is being prepared to exploit emerging exascale platforms in order to overcome computational limitations. This article presents the essential methodology and computational workflow employed in EQSIM to couple regional-scale geophysics models with local soil-structure models to achieve a fully integrated, complete fault-to-structure simulation framework. Here, the computational workflow, accuracy and performance of the coupling methodology are illustrated through example fault-to-structure simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Non-Electricity Based Renewable Fuels: Theory and Computation for Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen

Dominated by photovoltaics and wind, current renewable energy sources generate mostly electricity, but 80% of the global final energy consumption occurs in form of fuels. Therefore, direct solar fuel generation would be a major breakthrough for the energy transition. Solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) is one of the very few potential routes towards scalable renewable fuels, but currently suffers from lack of an oxide working material that could optimally perform energy conversion within the thermodynamic boundary conditions. Theory and computation can contribute in two distinct ways, through materials search and discovery, but also by providing detailed mechanistic models for specific systems so to advance our understanding of possible design strategies. To enable high-throughput materials screening, we developed a defect graph neural network (dGNN) machine learning approach,[1] which accelerates the prediction of defect formation energies by replacing the tedious density functional theory (DFT) supercell calculations for all possible defect sites. This approach enables high-throughput database screening of oxides, which was integrated with thermodynamic modeling to extract the reduction entropies as additional selection criterion for STCH. Once potential candidate materials are identified, detailed models can guide materials design by predicting performance characteristics. One challenge is to quantitatively predict thermochemical equilibria at high concentrations when the redox active defects start to interact with each other, thereby impeding the formation of additional defects. Introducing a model for the free energy of defect interaction, parametrized on the basis of DFT data, we simulated the complete STCH redox cycle for (Sr,Ce)MnO3 alloys, achieving near-quantitative agreement with experimental data.[2] The analysis of these simulations reveals how defect interactions diminish the reduction entropy and H2 yield, suggesting to include these interactions in design considerations. Finally, we revisit the popular van't Hoff method for analyzing reduction enthalpies and entropies. This method is not ideal, as it involves a temperature-dependent convolution of gas-phase and solid-state entropies, causing uncertainties in the same order of magnitude as the physical quantities of interest. To avoid this problem, we suggest a simple alternative approach which can be applied to experimental and simulated data alike.

first-principles calculations↗

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Greenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy

For over ten years, China has been the largest vehicle market in the world. In order to address energy security and air quality concerns, China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate New Energy Vehicle adoption. In this paper, a market-penetration model is combined with a vehicle fleet model to assess implications on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy demand. Here we use this integrated modeling framework to study several scenarios, including hypothetical policy tweaks, oil price, battery cost and charging infrastructure for the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet. The model shows that the total GHGs of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 under the Dual Credit policy. A significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible if more efficient internal combustion engines continue to be part of the technology mix in the short term with more New Energy Vehicle penetration in the long term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The anomalous magnetic moment of the muon in the Standard Model: an update

We present the current Standard Model (SM) prediction for the muon anomalous magnetic moment, a μ , updating the first White Paper (WP20) [1]. The pure QED and electroweak contributions have been further consolidated, while hadronic contributions continue to be responsible for the bulk of the uncertainty of the SM prediction. Significant progress has been achieved in the hadronic light-by-light scattering contribution using both the data-driven dispersive approach as well as lattice-QCD calculations, leading to a reduction of the uncertainty by almost a factor of two. The most important development since WP20 is the change in the estimate of the leading-order hadronic-vacuum-polarization (LO HVP) contribution. A new measurement of the e + e - → π + π - cross section by CMD-3 has increased the tensions among data-driven dispersive evaluations of the LO HVP contribution to a level that makes it impossible to combine the results in a meaningful way. At the same time, the attainable precision of lattice-QCD calculations has increased substantially and allows for a consolidated lattice-QCD average of the LO HVP contribution with a precision of about 0.9%. Adopting the latter in this update has resulted in a major upward shift of the total SM prediction, which now reads $a^{SM}_{μ}$ = 116 592 033 (62) x $10^{-11}$ (530 ppb). When compared against the current experimental average based on the E821 experiment and runs 1–6 of E989 at Fermilab, one finds $a^{exp}_{μ} -a^{SM}_{μ}= 38 (63)$ x $10^{-11}$, which implies that there is no tension between the SM and experiment at the current level of precision. The final precision of E989 (127 ppb) is the target of future efforts by the Theory Initiative. The resolution of the tensions among data-driven dispersive evaluations of the LO HVP contribution will be a key element in this endeavor.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Slimmer Geminals For Accurate F12 Electronic Structure Models

The Slater-type F12 geminal length scales originally tuned for the second-order Mo̷ller-Plesset F12 method are too large for higher-order F12 methods formulated using the SP (diagonal fixed-coefficient spin-adapted) F12 ansatz. The new geminal parameters reported herein reduce the basis set incompleteness errors (BSIEs) of absolute coupled-cluster singles and doubles F12 correlation energies by a significant─and increase with the cardinal number of the basis─margin. The effect of geminal reoptimization is especially pronounced for the cc-pVXZ-F12 basis sets (specifically designed for use with F12 methods) relative to their conventional aug-cc-pVXZ counterparts. The BSIEs of relative energies are less affected, but substantial reductions can be obtained, especially for atomization energies and ionization potentials with the cc-pVXZ-F12 basis sets. The new geminal parameters are therefore recommended for all applications of high-order F12 methods, such as coupled-cluster F12 methods and transcorrelated F12 methods.

Powell, Samuel R. [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and ↗

Adaptive experimental design for multi-fidelity surrogate modeling of multi-disciplinary systems

We present an adaptive algorithm for constructing surrogate models of multi-disciplinary systems composed of a set of coupled components. With this goal we introduce “coupling” variables with a priori unknown distributions that allow surrogates of each component to be built independently. Once built, the surrogates of the components are combined to form an integrated-surrogate that can be used to predict system-level quantities of interest at a fraction of the cost of the original model. The error in the integrated-surrogate is greedily minimized using an experimental design procedure that allocates the amount of training data, used to construct each component-surrogate, based on the contribution of those surrogates to the error of the integrated-surrogate. Here, the multi-fidelity procedure presented is a generalization of multi-index stochastic collocation that can leverage ensembles of models of varying cost and accuracy, for one or more components, to reduce the computational cost of constructing the integrated-surrogate. Extensive numerical results demonstrate that, for a fixed computational budget, our algorithm is able to produce surrogates that are orders of magnitude more accurate than methods that treat the integrated system as a black-box.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Rounding out the story of higher derivative consistent truncations

At the two-derivative order, the group manifold reduction of heterotic supergravity on S 3 results in a half-maximal 7D gauged supergravity coupled to three vector multiplets, and a further truncation can be taken to remove the vector multiplets. We demonstrate that this truncation remains consistent at the four-derivative level; we do so both by analysis of the equations of motion and the supersymmetry variations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Mapping structural heterogeneity at the nanoscale with scanning nano-structure electron microscopy (SNEM)

Here, in this work, we explore the use of scanning electron diffraction (also known as 4D-STEM) coupled with electron atomic pair distribution function analysis (ePDF) to understand the local order (structure and chemistry) as a function of position in a complex multicomponent system, a hot rolled, Ni-encapsulated, Zr 65 Cu 17.5 Ni 10 Al 7.5 bulk metallic glass (BMG), with a spatial resolution of 3 nm. We show that it is possible to gain insight into the chemistry and chemical clustering/ordering tendency in different regions of the sample, including in the vicinity of nano-scale crystallites that are identified from virtual dark field images and in heavily deformed regions at the edge of the BMG. In addition to simpler analysis, unsupervised machine learning was used to extract partial PDFs from the material, modeled as a quasi-binary alloy, and map them in space. These maps allowed key insights not only into the local average composition, as validated by EELS, but also a unique insight into chemical short-range ordering tendencies in different regions of the sample during formation. The experiments are straightforward and rapid and, unlike spectroscopic measurements, don’t require energy filters on the instrument. We spatially map different quantities of interest (QoI’s), defined as scalars that can be computed directly from positions and widths of ePDF peaks or parameters refined from fits to the patterns. We developed a flexible and rapid data reduction and analysis software framework that allows experimenters to rapidly explore images of the sample on the basis of different QoI’s. The power and flexibility of this approach are explored and described in detail. Because of the fact that we are getting spatially resolved images of the nanoscale structure obtained from ePDFs we call this approach scanning nano-structure electron microscopy (SNEM), and we believe that it will be powerful and useful extension of current 4D-STEM methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Micro-Mechanical Constitutive Model to Predict Hygrothermal Aging of Cross-Linked Polymers

Abstract A multi-physics material model is presented to describe the effects of temperature, oxygen, and humidity on the constitutive response of cross-linked polymers. The effect of hygrothermal damage on the mechanical integrity of the polymer matrix can be considered as the result of damage accumulation of two independent aging mechanism namely, i) thermo-oxidative, and ii) hydrolytic aging. In order to capture the mutual effects of thermo-oxidative and hydrolytic aging, an assumption has been made that each of the aging phenomenon can be superposed to each other. In fact, each of them works independently and as a result, they can compete with each other. Utilizing the theory of network decomposition, all phenomena and their correlation were modeled and thus, the strain energy function of the polymer matrix is written with respect to four independent mechanisms, i) the shrinking original matrix that has neither been attacked by water nor oxygen, ii) conversion of the first network to two new network due to the reduction and formation of cross-links, and iii) energy loss from network degradation due to attack of the water molecules to polymer active agents. Moreover, the proposed model is micro-mechanically based and is mainly relevant on thin samples due to our underlying assumption of homogeneous diffusion of oxygen and water throughout the matrix. The model has been validated against extensive data-sets obtained from experiments we specifically designed for concept validation.

Bahrololoumi, Amir↗