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At least 451 records · Page 25

Mission Simulation of Space Lidar Measurements for Seasonal and Regional CO2 Variations

Results of mission simulation studies are presented for a laser-based atmospheric [82 sounder. The simulations are based on real-time carbon cycle process modeling and data analysis. The mission concept corresponds to the Active Sensing of [82 over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Decadal Survey of Earth Science and Applications from Space. One prerequisite for meaningful quantitative sensor evaluation is realistic CO2 process modeling across a wide range of scales, i.e., does the model have representative spatial and temporal gradients? Examples of model comparison with data will be shown. Another requirement is a relatively complete description of the atmospheric and surface state, which we have obtained from meteorological data assimilation and satellite measurements from MODIS and [ALIPS0. We use radiative transfer model calculations, an instrument model with representative errors ' and a simple retrieval approach to complete the cycle from "nature" run to "pseudo-data" CO2, Several mission and instrument configuration options are examined/ and the sensitivity to key design variables is shown. We use the simulation framework to demonstrate that within reasonable technological assumptions for the system performance, relatively high measurement precision can be obtained, but errors depend strongly on environmental conditions as well as instrument specifications. Examples are also shown of how the resulting pseudo - measurements might be used to address key carbon cycle science questions.

Kawa, Stephan↗

An overview of the Energy Modeling Forum 33rd study: Assessing large-scale global bioenergy deployment for managing climate change

Previous studies have projected a significant role for bioenergy in decarbonizing the global economy and helping realize international climate goals such as limiting global average warming to 2°C or 1.5°C. However, with significant variability in bioenergy results and significant concerns about potential environmental and social implications, greater transparency and dedicated assessment of the underlying modeling and results and more detailed understanding of the potential role of bioenergy are needed. Stanford University’s Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) initiated a 33rd study (EMF-33) to explore the viability of large-scale bioenergy as part of a comprehensive climate management strategy. This special issue presents the papers of the EMF-33 study—a multi-year inter-model comparison project designed to understand and assess global, long-run, biomass supply and bioenergy deployment potentials and related uncertainties. Using a novel scenario design with independent biomass supply and bioenergy demand protocols, EMF-33 separately elucidates and explores the modeling of biomass feedstock supplies and bioenergy technologies and their deployment—revealing, comparing, and assessing the modeling that is suggesting that bioenergy could be a key climate containment strategy. This introduction provides an overview of the EMF-33 study design and the overview, thematic, and individual modeling team papers and types of insights that make up this special issue. By providing enhanced transparency and new detailed insights, we hope to inform policy dialogue about the potential role of bioenergy and facilitate new research.

Rose, Steven K.↗

UO 2 F 2 particulate formation in an impinging jet gas reactor

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD), chemical kinetics, and aerosol dynamics were combined to model the formation of uranyl fluoride particles from the hydrolysis of uranium hexafluoride gas. This chemical process has been studied for many decades, however, detailed measurements of aerosol formation have only become available in the past few years which provide a basis for model comparison. Here, CFD simulations predicted complicated flow patterns in the impinging jet gas reactor. Aerosol formation simulations also predicted higher mass concentrations than were observed experimentally. This suggested that experimental data provided a partial representation which was subsequently enhanced by modeling and simulation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Elastic deformation effects on aerodynamic characteristics for a high-aspect-ratio supercritical-wing model

The results of an investigation of the deformations of a high-aspect-ratio, force/pressure, supercritical-wing model during wind tunnel tests and the effects these deformations have on the wing aerodynamics are presented. A finite element model of the wing was developed, and then, for conditions corresponding to wind tunnel test points, experimental aerodynamic loads and theoretical aerodynamic loads were applied to the finite element model. Comparisons were made between the results of these load conditions for changes in structural deflections and for changes in aerodynamic characteristics. The results show that the deformations are quite small and that the pressure data are not significantly affected by model deformation.

Watson, J. J.↗

Modeling South Pacific Ice-Ocean Interactions in the Global Climate System

The objective of this project has been to improve the modeling of interactions between large Antarctic ice shelves and adjacent regions of the Southern Ocean. Our larger goal is to gain a better understanding of the extent to which the ocean controls ice shelf attrition, thereby influencing the size and dynamics of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Melting and freezing under ice shelves also impacts seawater properties, regional upwelling and sinking and the larger-scale ocean circulation. Modifying an isopycnal coordinate general circulation model for use in sub-ice shelf cavities, we found that the abrupt change in water column thickness at an ice shelf front does not form a strong barrier to buoyancy-driven circulation across the front. Outflow along the ice shelf base, driven by melting of the thickest ice, is balanced by deep inflow. Substantial effort was focused on the Filchner-Ronne cavity, where other models have been applied and time-series records are available from instruments suspended beneath the ice. A model comparison indicated that observed changes in the production of High Salinity Shelf Water could have a major impact on circulation within the cavity. This water propagates into the cavity with an asymmetric seasonal signal that has similar phasing and shape in the model and observations, and can be related to winter production at the sea surface. Even remote parts of the sub-ice shelf cavity are impacted by external forcing on sub-annual time scales. This shows that cavity circulations and products, and therefore cavity shape, will respond to interannual variability in sea ice production and longer-term climate change. The isopycnal model gives generally lower net melt rates than have been obtained from other models and oceanographic data, perhaps due to its boundary layer formulation, or the lack of tidal forcing. Work continues on a manuscript describing the Ross cavity results.

Holland, David M.↗

chatHPC: Empowering HPC users with large language models

The ever-growing number of pre-trained large language models (LLMs) across scientific domains presents a challenge for application developers. While these models offer vast potential, fine-tuning them with custom data, aligning them for specific tasks, and evaluating their performance remain crucial steps for effective utilization. However, applying these techniques to models with tens of billions of parameters can take days or even weeks on modern workstations, making the cumulative cost of model comparison and evaluation a significant barrier to LLM-based application development. To address this challenge, we introduce an end-to-end pipeline specifically designed for building conversational and programmable AI agents on high performance computing (HPC) platforms. Our comprehensive pipeline encompasses: model pre-training, fine-tuning, web and API service deployment, along with crucial evaluations for lexical coherence, semantic accuracy, hallucination detection, and privacy considerations. Here, we demonstrate our pipeline through the development of chatHPC, a chatbot for HPC question answering and script generation. Leveraging our scalable pipeline, we achieve end-to-end LLM alignment in under an hour on the Frontier supercomputer. We propose a novel self-improved, self-instruction method for instruction set generation, investigate scaling and fine-tuning strategies, and conduct a systematic evaluation of model performance. The established practices within chatHPC will serve as a valuable guidance for future LLM-based application development on HPC platforms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tracking-station coordinates from Geos 1 and Geos 2 optical flash data.

Center-of-mass coordinates for 28 NASA MOTS and SAO Baker-Nunn camera sites have been obtained from optical flash data from Geos 1 (1965 89A) and Geos 2 (1968 002A). More than 25,000 observations in about 100 two-day arcs were used in dynamical solutions (SAO 1969 AGU gravity model). Comparison of results with local survey solutions and with solutions from deep-space vehicle tracking suggests accuracy of about 2 meters in longitude and height and 5 meters in latitude. The relatively larger error in latitude arose from propagation of gravity-model error largely along the track of these high-inclination satellites. The results have also been compared with the solutions of the SAO 1969 standard earth for station coordinates on the North American datum. The solution obtained in the present work is much closer to the survey results in chord length between stations.

Marsh, J. G.↗

Evaluation of a Commercial Surface Vorticity Flow Solver for the Modeling of Propeller-Wing Interaction

A commercially available surface vorticity flow solver’s ability to model propeller-wing interaction effects was evaluated. First, a study was conducted to determine solution sensitivity to simulation parameters. Then, a deflected slipstream experiment was replicated with an actuator disk and wing model. Comparison with experimental data showed that predictions of lift and longitudinal force coefficients matched well at low flap deflections, but experienced offsets in magnitude with increasing flap deflection. Predictions of pitching moment differed significantly from experimental data largely due to the simple actuator disk model being insufficient for capturing the effects of non-zero flow incidence and non-uniform inflow.

Fei, Xiaofan↗

Northern Hemisphere Snow Drought in Earth System Model Simulations and ERA5‐Land Data in 1980–2014

Abstract Low snow levels over the past few decades and predictions of a low‐to‐no snow future have spurred research into snow droughts, which pose a threat to water security and management. Systematic data‐model comparisons of snow drought have been lacking, hindering our understanding of the drivers of snow drought in the past. To address this gap, we analyzed snow drought events using standardized snow water equivalent index derived from monthly results of four numerical experiments using the E3SM Land Model (ELM) and ERA5‐Land data during the period of 1980–2014. Additionally, we compared snow drought duration calculated from models with those from the ERA5‐Land data during selected El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. The numerical experiments were conducted with ELM driven by two prescribed atmospheric forcings, and with the coupled land‐atmosphere configuration of E3SM with and without plant hydraulics scheme feedback. Analysis reveals that 20%–30% of snow droughts occur due to factors other than above‐normal temperature and low snowfall, such as low soil moisture, warm soil temperature, and low relative humidity, etc., especially in high latitudes (50° North). Furthermore, our study highlights the exacerbating effect of ENSO events on snow drought conditions in various regions, despite some discrepancies between model and ERA5‐Land results. We also identified limitations of the coupled land‐atmosphere models in our current configuration in capturing the spatial patterns of snow droughts. This study underscores the challenge of predicting and mitigating snow drought and the need for a comprehensive understanding of the factors contributing to snow drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stellar Activity Manifesting at a One-year Alias Explains Barnard b as a False Positive

Barnard’s star is among the most studied stars given its proximity to the Sun. It is often considered the radial velocity (RV) standard for fully convective stars due to its RV stability and equatorial decl. Recently, an Msin i=3.3M{sub ⊕} super-Earth planet candidate with a 233 day orbital period was announced by Ribas et al. New observations from the near-infrared Habitable-zone Planet Finder (HPF) Doppler spectrometer do not show this planetary signal. We ran a suite of experiments on both the original data and a combined original + HPF data set. These experiments include model comparisons, periodogram analyses, and sampling sensitivity, all of which show the signal at the proposed period of 233 days is transitory in nature. The power in the signal is largely contained within 211 RVs that were taken within a 1000 day span of observing. Our preferred model of the system is one that features stellar activity without a planet. We propose that the candidate planetary signal is an alias of the 145 day rotation period. This result highlights the challenge of analyzing long-term, quasi-periodic activity signals over multiyear and multi-instrument observing campaigns.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The nature of cometary dust as determined from infrared observations

The infrared measurements of comets, the compositional information available from interplanetary dust particles (IDPs), and the recent results of flybys to Comet Halley can help in restricting the nature and composition of cometary dust models (c.f., Proceedings of the 20th ESLAB Symposium on Exploration of Halley's Comet, 1986). Researchers tried to incorporate some of these results into a coherent model to account for the observed cometary infrared emission. The presence of 10 and 3.4 micron features in Comet Halley (c.f. Bregman et al. 1987; Wickramasinghe and Allen 1986) indicated the presence of at least two components in the grain material, namely silicates and some form of amorphous carbon. These two components could reside in separate grains or may be parts of composite particles. Both these cases have been considered (see Krishna Swamy el a. 1988a, 1988b). In the absence of refractive index data for cometary analogs, the authors used the optical constants of olivine-rich lunar material 12009.48 (Perry et al. 1972) for the infrared region and that of alpha:C-H film for amorphous carbon (angus et al. 1986). For the visible region, a value of m = 1.38-0.39i was used for the silicates, and values published by Arakawa et al. (1985) were used for the amorphous carbon. These materials should give a representative behavior of the expected results. The model results were compared to observational data. The strength of the 3.4 micron and 10 micron features relative to the adjacent continuum, as well as the slope of the continuum between 2500 and 1250 cm(exp -1) (4 to 8 microns), were used as criteria for comparison. Model calculations with alpha approx. equals -3.5, and also the size distribution function inferred for Comet Halley, with a mass fraction (X) of silicate to amorphous carbon grains of about 40 to 1 can fit the data. A good match is obtained for the infrared spectra of Comets Halley and West from a 40 to 1 mixture of silicate and amorphous carbon grains with a a(exp -3.5) size distribution function. The results are consistent with compositional constraints provided by interplanetary dust particles (IPDs) and Halley flyby data. The variation of grain temperature with heliocentric distance appears to account for the major changes observed in cometary spectra.

Swamy, K. S. Krishna↗

Infrared algorithm development for ocean observations with EOS/MODIS

Efforts continue under this contract to develop algorithms for the computation of sea surface temperature (SST) from MODIS infrared retrievals. This effort includes radiative transfer modeling, comparison of in situ and satellite observations, development and evaluation of processing and networking methodologies for algorithm computation and data accession, evaluation of surface validation approaches for IR radiances, and participation in MODIS (project) related activities. Efforts in this contract period have focused on radiative transfer modeling and evaluation of atmospheric path radiance efforts on SST estimation, exploration of involvement in ongoing field studies, evaluation of new computer networking strategies, and objective analysis approaches.

Brown, Otis B.↗

Infrared algorithm development for ocean observations

Efforts continue under this contract to develop algorithms for the computation of sea surface temperature (SST) from MODIS infrared retrievals. This effort includes radiative transfer modeling, comparison of in situ and satellite observations, development and evaluation of processing and networking methodologies for algorithm computation and data accession, evaluation of surface validation approaches for IR radiances, and participation in MODIS (project) related activities. Efforts in this contract period have focused on radiative transfer modeling, evaluation of atmospheric correction methodologies, involvement in field studies, production and evaluation of new computer networking strategies, and objective analysis approaches.

Brown, Otis B.↗

Local ISM 3D Distribution and Soft X-ray Background Inferences for Nearby Hot Gas

Three-dimensional (3D) interstellar medium (ISM) maps can be used to locate not only interstellar (IS) clouds, but also IS bubbles between the clouds that are blown by stellar winds and supernovae, and are filled by hot gas. To demonstrate this, and to derive a clearer picture of the local ISM, we compare our recent 3D IS dust distribution maps to the ROSAT diffuse Xray background maps after removal of heliospheric emission. In the Galactic plane, there is a good correspondence between the locations and extents of the mapped nearby cavities and the soft (0.25 keV) background emission distribution, showing that most of these nearby cavities contribute to this soft X-ray emission. Assuming a constant dust to gas ratio and homogeneous 106 K hot gas filling the cavities, we modeled in a simple way the 0.25 keV surface brightness along the Galactic plane as seen from the Sun, taking into account the absorption by the mapped clouds. The data-model comparison favors the existence of hot gas in the solar neighborhood, the so-called Local Bubble (LB). The inferred mean pressure in the local cavities is found to be approx.9,400/cu cm K, in agreement with previous studies, providing a validation test for the method. On the other hand, the model overestimates the emission from the huge cavities located in the third quadrant. Using CaII absorption data, we show that the dust to CaII ratio is very small in those regions, implying the presence of a large quantity of lower temperature (non-X-ray emitting) ionized gas and as a consequence a reduction of the volume filled by hot gas, explaining at least part of the discrepancy. In the meridian plane, the two main brightness enhancements coincide well with the LB's most elongated parts and chimneys connecting the LB to the halo, but no particular nearby cavity is found towards the enhancement in the direction of the bright North Polar Spur (NPS) at high latitude. We searched in the 3D maps for the source regions of the higher energy (0.75 keV) enhancements in the fourth and first quadrants. Tunnels and cavities are found to coincide with the main bright areas, however no tunnel nor cavity is found to match the low-latitude b > or approx. 8deg, brightest part of the NPS. In addition, the comparison between the 3D maps and published spectral data favors a NPS central source region location beyond 230 pc, i.e. at larger distance than usually considered. Those examples illustrate the potential use of more detailed 3D distributions of the nearby ISM for the interpretation of the diffuse soft X-ray background.

Xray Emission↗

The Influence of Synoptic Scales on Low-frequency Modes of Variability

Model analysis and predictablity studies using an equivalent barotropic empirical orthogonal function (EOF) model described in Schubert (1984b) are dicussed. An extensive set of 10-day forecasts was produced for the 12 component version of the model. Comparisons with observed data show apparently useful forecasts for individual winters. However, when averaged over 10 winters, the improvement over persistence was marginal and only one of the EOF's (resembling North Atlantic blocking) showed a statistically significant improvement. These results suggest the need for a more realistic model which includes shorter time scale baroclinic processes and spatial modes capable of efficiently representing the characteristic structures associated with baroclinic instability.

Schubert, S. D.↗

Infrared Algorithm Development for Ocean Observations with EOS/MODIS

Efforts continue under this contract to develop algorithms for the computation of sea surface temperature (SST) from MODIS infrared measurements. This effort includes radiative transfer modeling, comparison of in situ and satellite observations, development and evaluation of processing and networking methodologies for algorithm computation and data accession, evaluation of surface validation approaches for IR radiances, development of experimental instrumentation, and participation in MODIS (project) related activities. Activities in this contract period have focused on radiative transfer modeling, evaluation of atmospheric correction methodologies, undertake field campaigns, analysis of field data, and participation in MODIS meetings.

Brown, Otis B.↗

A Statistical Comparison of PSC Model Simulations and POAM Observations

A better knowledge of PSC composition and formation mechanisms is important to better understand and predict stratospheric ozone depletion. Several past studies have attempted to compare modeling results with satellite observations. These comparisons have concentrated on case studies. In this paper we adopt a statistical approach. POAM PSC observations from several Arctic winters are categorized into Type Ia and Ib PSCs using a technique based on Strawa et al. The discrimination technique has been modified to employ the wavelengths dependence of the extinction signal at all wavelengths rather than only at 603 and 10 18 nm. Winter-long simulations for the 1999-2000 Arctic winter have been made using the IMPACT model. These simulations have been constrained by aircraft observations made during the SOLVE/THESEO 2000 campaign. A complete set of winter-long simulations was run for several different microphysical and PSC formation scenarios. The simulations give us perfect knowledge of PSC type (Ia, Ib, or II), composition, especially condensed phase HNO3 which is important for denitrification, and condensed phase H2O. Comparisons are made between the simulation and observation of PSC extinction at 1018 rim versus wavelength dependence, winter-long percentages of Ia and Ib occurrence, and temporal and altitude trends of the PSCs. These comparisons allow us to comment on how realistic some modeling scenarios are.

Strawa, A. W.↗