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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25

Whose Gas is it anyway? Differentiating the Source of a Large Soil Vapor Plume beneath Two Adjacent Waste Sites - 20487

DOE contractor CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company is currently responsible for conducting groundwater contamination monitoring at several RCRA treatment, storage, and disposal units located on the Hanford Site in Richland, Washington State. The Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill treatment, storage, and disposal unit presents a distinct groundwater monitoring problem because of a large multi-contaminant soil vapor plume beneath it that is a likely source of low-level volatile organic compound groundwater contamination. Adjacent to Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill is the Solid Waste Landfill. Volatile organic compounds are inventory components of both the Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and the Solid Waste Landfill. Therefore, it is possible that both sites could be contributing to the soil vapor plume. For regulatory purposes, it is important to differentiate which site is the primary contributor of volatile organic compounds to the plume. An approach was developed to identify the primary volatile organic compound source of the soil vapor plume beneath Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill. The site conceptual model hypothesis of vapor-phase volatile organic compound transport to the dissolved phase in groundwater was tested by a simple mathematical model of vapor/liquid equilibrium concentrations at the groundwater/air interface. Once it was shown that vapor-phase volatile organic compound transport to groundwater was a valid conceptual model for Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill, spatial and statistical methods were used to determine the primary site contributing to the majority of volatile organic compounds to the soil vapor plume. Average groundwater chloroform, tetrachloroethene, and trichloroethene concentrations from Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill monitoring network wells were plotted on maps of the facilities and immediate vicinities and compared to soil vapor sampling probe locations. Principal component analysis and mixing ratios were used to identify source contributions of each treatment, storage, and disposal unit to the plume. Results of the vapor/liquid equilibrium concentrations mathematical model showed that transport phenomena outweigh steady-state equilibria. Estimated vapor/liquid equilibrium concentrations were considerably lower than soil vapor measurements. The results indicate that dynamic vadose zone and groundwater factors such as decreased vapor concentrations with depth, vapor dilution from dispersion in the vadose zone, and advective and diffusional volatile organic compound dilution in groundwater result in groundwater volatile organic compound concentrations much less than would be measured under steady-state equilibrium conditions. Site source contribution differentiation by principal component analysis and mixing ratios was inconclusive using actual soil gas data because of the similarity in concentration values in both datasets for Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill. Similar data populations suggest mixing of the vapor contributions from both sites by dispersion through the soil matrix pore spaces. However, when groundwater volatile organic compound data were compared between the Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill monitoring networks, Solid Waste Landfill mean concentrations were higher, suggesting more vapor-phase volatile organic compound transport to groundwater at those locations. Simulated volatile organic compound soil vapor and groundwater datasets created to test the methods developed for this study show that the method can be successful in source differentiation when significantly different datasets are compared. This paper will describe a method of testing a conceptual model for vapor-phase contaminant transport to groundwater and for differentiating site sources of contaminants comprising a mixed-constituent soil vapor plume. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Turbulence and the Stabilization Principle

Further results of research, reported in several previous NASA Tech Briefs articles, were obtained on a mathematical formalism for postinstability motions of a dynamical system characterized by exponential divergences of trajectories leading to chaos (including turbulence). To recapitulate: Fictitious control forces are introduced to couple the dynamical equations with a Liouville equation that describes the evolution of the probability density of errors in initial conditions. These forces create a powerful terminal attractor in probability space that corresponds to occurrence of a target trajectory with probability one. The effect in ordinary perceived three-dimensional space is to suppress exponential divergences of neighboring trajectories without affecting the target trajectory. Con sequently, the postinstability motion is represented by a set of functions describing the evolution of such statistical quantities as expectations and higher moments, and this representation is stable. The previously reported findings are analyzed from the perspective of the authors Stabilization Principle, according to which (1) stability is recognized as an attribute of mathematical formalism rather than of underlying physics and (2) a dynamical system that appears unstable when modeled by differentiable functions only can be rendered stable by modifying the dynamical equations to incorporate intrinsic stochasticity.

Zak, Michail↗

Robust Fuzzy Controllers Using FPGAs

Electro-mechanical device controllers typically come in one of three forms, proportional (P), Proportional Derivative (PD), and Proportional Integral Derivative (PID). Two methods of control are discussed in this paper; they are (1) the classical technique that requires an in-depth mathematical use of poles and zeros, and (2) the fuzzy logic (FL) technique that is similar to the way humans think and make decisions. FL controllers are used in multiple industries; examples include control engineering, computer vision, pattern recognition, statistics, and data analysis. Presented is a study on the development of a PD motor controller written in very high speed hardware description language (VHDL), and implemented in FL. Four distinct abstractions compose the FL controller, they are the fuzzifier, the rule-base, the fuzzy inference system (FIS), and the defuzzifier. FL is similar to, but different from, Boolean logic; where the output value may be equal to 0 or 1, but it could also be equal to any decimal value between them. This controller is unique because of its VHDL implementation, which uses integer mathematics. To compensate for VHDL's inability to synthesis floating point numbers, a scale factor equal to 10(sup (N/4) is utilized; where N is equal to data word size. The scaling factor shifts the decimal digits to the left of the decimal point for increased precision. PD controllers are ideal for use with servo motors, where position control is effective. This paper discusses control methods for motion-base platforms where a constant velocity equivalent to a spectral resolution of 0.25 cm(exp -1) is required; however, the control capability of this controller extends to various other platforms.

Monroe, Author Gene S., Jr.↗

Research on decreasing the noise of a jet

An investigation was conducted to determine the amount of noise reduction that could be obtained by communicating the axial vibrations of the nozzle of a jet engine to the suspension mechanism. Mathematical models were developed to establish the relationship of the parameters. The pressure pulsations in the jet were recorded by measuring microphones and the data were processed by statistical dynamics methods. It was determined that the jet noise spectrum was successfully changed with various mechanical suspension impedances.

Akelis, M. E.↗

GRCop-84 Developed for Rocket Engines

GRCop-84 (Cu-8 at.% Cr-4 at.% Nb) was developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center for use in regeneratively cooled rocket engines. This alloy possesses an excellent combination of conductivity, thermal expansion, strength, creep resistance, ductility, and low-cycle fatigue (LCF) life. In comparison to the currently used alloy, NARloy-Z (Cu-3 wt % Ag-0.5 wt % Zr), GRCop-84's significantly better properties give it the potential for significant gains in engine performance and reliability. For GRCop-84 to be safely used in a rocket engine, it is critical to develop a detailed data base of the important thermophysical and mechanical properties. Work has focused on five major properties: thermal conductivity, thermal expansion, tensile strength, creep resistance, and LCF life. The analysis went beyond simply measuring the data and reporting averages. A detailed statistical analysis was conducted that allowed regression of the data over the entire temperature range tested and establishment of design minimums. The design values were expressed as simple mathematical formulas that are highly amenable to use in computer codes such as in finite element analysis and related computer modeling work.

Ellis, David L.↗

Telemetry and Science Data Software System

The Telemetry and Science Data Software System (TSDSS) was designed to validate the operational health of a spacecraft, ease test verification, assist in debugging system anomalies, and provide trending data and advanced science analysis. In doing so, the system parses, processes, and organizes raw data from the Aquarius instrument both on the ground and while in space. In addition, it provides a user-friendly telemetry viewer, and an instant pushbutton test report generator. Existing ground data systems can parse and provide simple data processing, but have limitations in advanced science analysis and instant report generation. The TSDSS functions as an offline data analysis system during I&T (integration and test) and mission operations phases. After raw data are downloaded from an instrument, TSDSS ingests the data files, parses, converts telemetry to engineering units, and applies advanced algorithms to produce science level 0, 1, and 2 data products. Meanwhile, it automatically schedules upload of the raw data to a remote server and archives all intermediate and final values in a MySQL database in time order. All data saved in the system can be straightforwardly retrieved, exported, and migrated. Using TSDSS s interactive data visualization tool, a user can conveniently choose any combination and mathematical computation of interesting telemetry points from a large range of time periods (life cycle of mission ground data and mission operations testing), and display a graphical and statistical view of the data. With this graphical user interface (GUI), the data queried graphs can be exported and saved in multiple formats. This GUI is especially useful in trending data analysis, debugging anomalies, and advanced data analysis. At the request of the user, mission-specific instrument performance assessment reports can be generated with a simple click of a button on the GUI. From instrument level to observatory level, the TSDSS has been operating supporting functional and performance tests and refining system calibration algorithms and coefficients, in sync with the Aquarius/SAC-D spacecraft. At the time of this reporting, it was prepared and set up to perform anomaly investigation for mission operations preceding the Aquarius/SAC-D spacecraft launch on June 10, 2011.

Bates, Lakesha↗

Deep Learning Experiments for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Reducing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors is a challenging task that has interested the operational forecasting and research community for decades. To address this, we developed a deep learning (DL)-based multilayer perceptron (MLP) TC intensity prediction model. The model was trained using the global Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) predictors to forecast the change in TC maximum wind speed for the Atlantic basin. In the first experiment, a 24-h forecast period was considered. To overcome sample size limitations, we adopted a leave one year out (LOYO) testing scheme, where a model is trained using data from all years except one and then evaluated on the year that is left out. When tested on 2010–18 operational data using the LOYO scheme, the MLP outperformed other statistical–dynamical models by 9%–20%. Additional independent tests in 2019 and 2020 were conducted to simulate real-time operational forecasts, where the MLP model again outperformed the statistical–dynamical models by 5%–22% and achieved comparable results as HWFI. The MLP model also correctly predicted more rapid intensification events than all the four operational TC intensity models compared. In the second experiment, we developed a lightweight MLP for 6-h intensity predictions. When coupled with a synthetic TC track model, the lightweight MLP generated realistic TC intensity distribution in the Atlantic basin. Therefore, the MLP-based approach has the potential to improve operational TC intensity forecasts, and will also be a viable option for generating synthetic TCs for climate studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sequence2Self: Self-supervised image sequence denoising of pixel-level spray breakup morphology

Optical imaging of fast and transient phenomena such as the turbulent breakup of liquid sprays exhibit low signal-to-noise ratios due to the limited illumination intensity relative to the short exposure time. Image denoising is required to facilitate physical studies over these data but is challenging due to the absence of clean ground-truths and the stringency of the denoising task (e.g., strong and complex noise, limited resolution, preserving physical fidelity), preventing supervised and existing un-/self-supervised deep learning methods. To this end, Sequence2Self (Seq2S) is proposed, an extension of Self2Self (S2S) to image sequences that leverages both the signal’s spatial and temporal correlation. Seq2S is demonstrated on time-resolved x-ray phase contrast imaging of liquid jet fuel sprays in a gas turbine combustor, which possesses all of challenges detailed above. Experiments are conducted across four fuels with different breakup morphology using various state-of-the-art methods. Overall, many of the methods failed and Seq2S was most successful: (1) Accurate spray structures were reconstructed with consistent evolution across frames void of artifacts. (2) The performance was robust, invariant to the hyperparameter choice. (3) Computational time is short and can be made eligible for real-time denoising. In particular, the images denoised by Seq2S showed spray droplet diameter distributions with near-zero Kullback–Leibler divergence (0.01 ± 0.01) to a cleaner reference, whereas the second best method yielded 0.06 ± 0.03. In conclusion, this suggests that Seq2S can be reliably used prior to subsequent quantitative spray analyses as it retains (if not, improves) the statistical physical properties of the data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cyber Resilience in the Cast Timing System

Our task within the DarkNet project was to test the cyber resiliency of the Center for Alternate Synchronization and Timing’s (CAST) framework. We focused our testing on two of the core pieces of CAST’s implementation, a Juniper MX204 router and the Precision Time Protocol (PTP). In this report, we cover the following attempted methods of attack on our targets: ping flood, fork bomb, network protocol fuzzing, ARP poisoning, and IGMP spoofing. We found that delaying certain packets, specifically Delay Request, had a significant impact on the Offset from Master and Observed Drift timing statistics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Laplace's method applied to functional integrals

In statistical thermodynamics, partition functions are required to evaluate the current state. It is typically impossible to analytically calculate the resulting configuration integrals, but it is sometimes possible to obtain approximations in the limit of steep potential energies. This approach directly leverages Laplace’s method for approximating integrals and has been quite successful in recent applications. Motivated by models with an infinite number of degrees of freedom, this approach should be extended to the statistical thermodynamics of fields. To that end, Laplace’s method is developed for functional integrals.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Investigation of a geodesy coexperiment to the Gravity Probe B relativity gyroscope program

Geodesy is the science of measuring the gravitational field of and positions on the Earth. Estimation of the gravitational field via gravitation gradiometry, the measurement of variations in the direction and magnitude of gravitation with respect to position, is this dissertation's focus. Gravity Probe B (GP-B) is a Stanford satellite experiment in gravitational physics. GP-B will measure the precession the rotating Earth causes on the space time around it by observing the precessions of four gyroscopes in a circular, polar, drag-free orbit at 650 km altitude. The gyroscopes are nearly perfect niobium-coated spheres of quartz, operating at 1.8 K to permit observations with extremely low thermal noise. The permissible gyroscope drift rate is miniscule, so the torques on the gyros must be tiny. A drag-free control system, by canceling accelerations caused by nongravitational forces, minimizes the support forces and hence torques. The GP-B system offers two main possibilities for geodesy. One is as a drag-free satellite to be used in trajectory-based estimates of the Earth's gravity field. We described calculations involving that approach in our previous reports, including comparison of laser only, GPS only, and combined tracking and a preliminary estimate of the possibility of estimating relativistic effects on the orbit. The second possibility is gradiometry. This technique has received a more cursory examination in previous reports, so we concentrate on it here. We explore the feasibility of using the residual suspension forces centering the GP-B gyros as gradiometer signals for geodesy. The objective of this work is a statistical prediction of the formal uncertainty in an estimate of the Earth's gravitation field using data from GP-B. We perform an instrument analysis and apply two mathematical techniques to predict uncertainty. One is an analytical approach using a flat-Earth approximation to predict geopotential information quality as a function of spatial wavelength. The second estimates the covariance matrix arising in a least-squares estimate of a spherical harmonic representation of the geopotential using GP-B gradiometer data. The results show that the GP-B data set can be used to create a consistent estimate of the geopotential up to spherical harmonic degree and order 60. The formal uncertainty of all coefficients between degrees 5 and 50 is reduced by factors of up to 30 over current satellite-only estimates and up to 7 over estimates which include surface data. The primary conclusion resulting from this study is that the gravitation gradiometer geodesy coexperiment to GP-B is both feasible and attractive.

Everitt, C. W. F.↗

Mathematical and Computational Challenges in Population Biology and Ecosystems Science

Mathematical and computational approaches provide powerful tools in the study of problems in population biology and ecosystems science. The subject has a rich history intertwined with the development of statistics and dynamical systems theory, but recent analytical advances, coupled with the enhanced potential of high-speed computation, have opened up new vistas and presented new challenges. Key challenges involve ways to deal with the collective dynamics of heterogeneous ensembles of individuals, and to scale from small spatial regions to large ones. The central issues-understanding how detail at one scale makes its signature felt at other scales, and how to relate phenomena across scales-cut across scientific disciplines and go to the heart of algorithmic development of approaches to high-speed computation. Examples are given from ecology, genetics, epidemiology, and immunology.

Levin, Simon A.↗

A New Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction Scheme for Seasonal Precipitation

Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada This paper describes the fundamental theory of the ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) algorithm for the seasonal climate forecasting. The algorithm is a statistical regression sch eme based on maximal correlation between the predictor and predictand. The prediction error is estimated by a spectral method using the basis of empirical orthogonal functions. The ECC algorithm treats the predictors and predictands as continuous fields and is an improvement from the traditional canonical correlation prediction. The improvements include the use of area-factor, estimation of prediction error, and the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The ECC is applied to the seasonal forecasting over various parts of the world. The example presented here is for the North America precipitation. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST) from different ocean basins. The Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST (1951-1999) is used as the predictor's historical data. The optimally interpolated global monthly precipitation is used as the predictand?s historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the ECC algorithm renders very high skill and the optimal ensemble is very important to the high value.

Kim, Kyu-Myong↗

Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The reliability, cost and performance of electrical connectors are a concern in all types of electrical systems, and demands on connectors used on photovoltaic (PV) systems include that connectors maintain electrical conductivity and physical strength, endure ultraviolet sunlight and high ambient temperature, and resist moisture and chemical intrusion over a very long (>25 year) performance period. Connector failures increase operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduce plant production, but connector failure can also cause safety and liability problems, which are of greater concern. This work results from a three-year collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) under Agreements #39035 and #38531 "Connector Reliability Across the US Solar Sector." a multi-pronged investigation of PV connector health across the US (see https://energy.sandia.gov/pvconnectors/). This report presents derivation of a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that models failure modes and frequencies (how often failure occurs), estimates O&M costs and lost production associated with connector failures, and then calculates the effect that PV module connectors can have on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The model is informed with initial data from quantitative assessment of failure rates, root causes and mechanisms, in-situ diagnostics and data collection, lab-based forensics, and interviews with PV connector manufacturers and plant operators. SNL conducted site inspections at multiple utility-scale sites in different climates and subjected field samples of new, used, and degraded connectors to visual and electrical characterization. EPRI conducted metallurgical analysis of the pin and sleeve conductors to study failure-induced morphological and compositional changes. There is in general a shortage of statistically valid data, but data from PVROM database maintained by SNL was sufficient to ascertain failure rates and lost production as well as provide qualitative insight in its curated maintenance records. This report details the structure of the mathematical model but the sources of data to inform the model will continue to evolve. Analysis of a 100 MW PV plant is provided as an example of the use of the model, with results indicating that connectors are responsible for Annualized O&M Costs of $\$$71,933/year; Annualized Unit O&M Costs of $\$$0.72/kW/year; that a Reserve Account of $\$$187,220 should be available to fund repairs related to connectors; that connectors add $\$$1,494,004 to the Net Present Value of the O&M Costs (project life); and that O&M related to connectors adds about $\$$0.00088/kWh to the Levelized Cost of Energy. The impact of this model is to provide a tool to make the US solar sector more robust by quantifying and monetizing the reliability risks to utility-scale PV systems posed by poorly installed, mismatched and/or poorly designed and manufactured connectors. The TEA provides a model incorporating failure statistics, O&M cost data, and lost production into a single figure of merit, informing decisions and enabling practitioners to optimize cost and performance trade-offs. Stakeholders include connector manufacturers, system designers and equipment specifiers, standards bodies, installers and O&M providers, investors and insurance underwriters. This report supports continued growth of PV predicated on assurances that properly installed and maintained PV system connectors are safe and reliable. The project team is proposing future work including accelerated testing of connectors and expanding the approach taken here to other PV system components, such as TEA for rapid shut-down devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Pyomo.DOE: An open-source package for model-based design of experiments in Python

Predictive mathematical models are a cornerstone of science and engineering. Yet selecting, calibrating, and validating said science-based models often remains an art in practice. Model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) provides a systematic framework to maximize information gain from experiments while minimizing time and resource costs. But MBDoE remains limited to niche application areas, in part because practitioners must integrate expertise in statistics, computational optimization, and modeling. To help reduce this barrier, we introduce Pyomo.DOE, an open-source package for MBDoE. Pyomo.DOE uses a nonlinear sensitivity analysis code k_aug to quickly approximate the Fisher information matrix and leverages a new stochastic programming abstraction. We demonstrate Pyomo.DOE with the first application of MBDoE to fixed-bed breakthrough experiments, which highlights the power of Pyomo.DOE to quantify the value of experimental modifications a priori for large-scale partial differential-algebraic equation (PDAE) models. Here we also provide a mathematical primer on MBDoE targeted at general chemical engineers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Clustering and Cliques in Preferential Attachment Random Graphs with Edge Insertion

In this paper, we investigate the global clustering coefficient (a.k.a transitivity) and clique number of graphs generated by a preferential attachment random graph model with an additional feature of allowing edge connections between existing vertices. Specifically, at each time step t, either a new vertex is added with probability f(t), or an edge is added between two existing vertices with probability 1 – f(t). We establish concentration inequalities for the global clustering and clique number of the resulting graphs under the assumption that f(t) is a regularly varying function at infinity with index of regular variation –$\gamma$, where $\gamma$ $\in$ [0, 1). Finally, we also demonstrate an inverse relation between these two statistics: the clique number is essentially the reciprocal of the global clustering coefficient.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗