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At least 451 records · Page 25

A Mercury Lander Mission Concept Study for the Next Decadal Survey

Mariner 10 provided our first closeup reconnaissance of Mercury during its three flybys in 1974 and 1975. MESSENGER’s 2011–2015 orbital investigation enabled numerous discoveries, several of which led to substantial or complete changes in our fundamental understanding of the planet. Among these were the unanticipated, widespread presence of volatile elements (e.g., Na, K, S); a surface with extremely low Fe abundance whose darkening agent is likely C; a previously unknown landform—hollows— that may form by volatile sublimation from within rocks exposed to the harsh conditions on the surface; a history of expansive effusive and explosive volcanism; substantial radial contraction of the planet from interior cooling; offset of the dipole moment of the internal magnetic field northward from the geographic equator by ~20% of the planet’s radius; crustal magnetization, attributed at least in part to an ancient field; unexpected seasonal variability and relationships among exospheric species and processes; and the presence in permanently shadowed polar terrain of water ice and other volatile materials, likely to include complex organic compounds. Mercury’s highly chemically reduced and unexpectedly volatile-rich composition is unique among the terrestrial planets and was not predicted by earlier hypotheses for the planet’s origin. As an end-member of terrestrial planet formation, Mercury holds unique clues about the original distribution of elements in the earliest stages of the Solar System and how planets (and exoplanets) form and evolve in close proximity to their host stars. The BepiColombo mission promises to expand our knowledge of this planet and to shed light on some of the mysteries revealed by the MESSENGER mission. However, several fundamental science questions raised by MESSENGER’s pioneering exploration of Mercury can only be answered with in situ measurements from the planet’s surface.

Ernst, C. M.↗

The Influence of Airmass Histories on Radical Species during POLARIS

The Goddard trajectory chemistry model was used with ER-2 aircraft data to test our current knowledge of radical photochemistry during the POLARIS (Polar Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region In Summer) campaign. The results of the trajectory chemistry model with and without trajectories are used to identify cases where steady state does not accurately describe the measurements. Over the entire mission, using trajectory chemistry reduces the variability in the modeled NO(x) comparisons to data by 25% with respect to the same model simulating steady state. Although the variability is reduced, NO(x)/NO(y) trajectory model results were found to be systematically low relative to the observations by 20-30% as seen in previous studies. Using new rate constants for reactions important in NO(y) partitioning improves the agreement of NO(x)/NO(y) with the observations but a 5-10% bias still exists. OH and HO2 individually are underpredicted by 15% of the standard steady state model and worsen with the new rate constants. Trajectory chemistry model results of OH/HO2 were systematically low by 10-20% but improve using the new rates constants because of the explicit dependence on NO. This suggests that our understanding of NO(x) is accurate to the 20% level and HO(x) chemistry is accurate to the 30% level in the lower stratosphere or better for the POLARIS regime. The behavior of the NO(x) and HO(x) comparisons to data using steady state versus trajectory chemistry and with updated rate coefficients is discussed in ten-ns of known chemical mechanisms and lifetimes.

Pierson, J. M.↗

SO(3)-invariance of informed-graph-based deep neural network for anisotropic elastoplastic materials

This work examines the frame-invariance (and the lack thereof) exhibited in simulated anisotropic elasto-plastic responses generated from supervised machine learning of classical multi-layer and informed-graph-based neural networks, and proposes different remedies to fix this drawback. The inherent hierarchical relations among physical quantities and state variables in an elasto-plasticity model are first represented as informed, directed graphs, where three variations of the graph are tested. While feed-forward neural networks are used to train path-independent constitutive relations (e.g., elasticity), recurrent neural networks are used to replicate responses that depends on the deformation history, i.e. or path dependent. In dealing with the objectivity deficiency, we use the spectral form to represent tensors and, subsequently, three metrics, the Euclidean distance between the Euler Angles, the distance from the identity matrix, and geodesic on the unit sphere in Lie algebra, can be employed to constitute objective functions for the supervised machine learning. In this, the aim is to minimize the measured distance between the true and the predicted 3D rotation entities. Following this, we conduct numerical experiments on how these metrics, which are theoretically equivalent, may lead to differences in the efficiency of the supervised machine learning as well as the accuracy and robustness of the resultant models. Neural network models trained with tensors represented in component form for a given Cartesian coordinate system are used as a benchmark. Our numerical tests show that, even given the same amount of information and data, the quality of the anisotropic elasto-plasticity model is highly sensitive to the way tensors are represented and measured. The results reveal that using a loss function based on geodesic on the unit sphere in Lie algebra together with an informed, directed graph yield significantly more accurate rotation prediction than the other tested approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Description and overview of an instrument designed to measure line-of-sight delay due to water vapor

Eight dual channel microwave radiometers were constructed as a research and development effort for the Crustal Dynamics Project and the Deep Space Network. These instruments, known as water vapor radiometers, are primarily intended to demonstrate that the variable path delay imposed by atmospheric water vapor can be calibrated in microwave tracking and distance measuring systems but could also be used in other applications involving moist air meteorology and propagation studies. They are being deployed to various stations and observatories that participate in Very Long Baseline Interferometry experiments. The development history of these instruments are reviewed, the theory of operation and overall design considerations are outlined, and the instrumental parameters and performance characteristics are described.

Resch, G. M.↗

Gamma-ray burst variability above 4 MeV

The relationship between the hard X-ray and gamma ray emissions during four bursts using the anti-coincidence shields of the High Energy Astronomy Observatory 3 (HEAO 3) Gamma Ray Spectrometer is explored. Recent observations of gamma ray bursts by the Solar Maximum Mission Gamma Ray Spectrometer (GRS) have shown that high energy emission above 1 MeV is a common and energetically important feature (Matz et al. 1985). Time histories of four gamma ray bursts in 3 energy bands ( keV, around 511 keV, and 4 MeV) with 10.24 a resolution show that the 4 MeV flux is only weakly coupled to the spectrum below approximately 600 keV.

Schwartz, R. A.↗

Deuterium Isotope Fractionation of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Meteorites as an Indicator of Interstellar/Protosolar Processing History

The stable isotope composition of soluble and insoluble organic compounds in carbonaceous chondrites can be used to determine the provenance of organic molecules in space. Deuterium enrichment in meteoritic organics could be a residual signal of synthetic reactions occurring in the cold interstellar medium or an indicator of hydrothermal parent-body reactions. δD values have been measured in grains and bulk samples for a wide range of meteorites; however, these reservoirs are highly variable and may have experienced fractionation during thermal and/or aqueous alteration. Among the plethora of organic compounds in meteorites are polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), which are stable and abundant in carbonaceous chondrites, and their δD ratio may preserve evidence about their formation environment as well as the influence of parent-body processes. This study tests hypotheses about the potential links between PAHs-deuteration concentrations and their formation conditions by examining the δD ratio of PAHs in three CM carbonaceous chondrites representing an aqueous alteration gradient. We use deuterium enrichments in soluble 2–5-ring PAHs as an indicator of either photon-driven deuteration due to unimolecular photodissociation in warm regions of space, gas-phase ion–molecule reactions in cold interstellar regions of space, or UV photolysis in ices. We also test hypothesized reaction pathways during parent-body processing that differ between partially and fully aromatized PAHs. New methodological approaches were developed to extract small, volatile PAHs without fractionation. Our results suggest that meteoritic PAHs could have formed through reactions in cold regions, with possible overprinting of deuterium enrichment during aqueous parent-body alteration, but the data could not rule out PAH alteration in icy mantles as well.

H V Graham↗

Intrinsic and environmental drivers of pairwise cohesion in wild Canis social groups

Animals within social groups respond to costs and benefits of sociality by adjusting the proportion of time they spend in close proximity to other individuals in the group (cohesion). Variation in cohesion between individuals, in turn, shapes important group-level processes such as subgroup formation and fission–fusion dynamics. Although critical to animal sociality, a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing cohesion remains a gap in our knowledge of cooperative behavior in animals. We tracked 574 individuals from six species within the genus Canis in 15 countries on four continents with GPS telemetry to estimate the time that pairs of individuals within social groups spent in close proximity and test hypotheses regarding drivers of cohesion. Pairs of social canids (Canis spp.) varied widely in the proportion of time they spent together (5%–100%) during seasonal monitoring periods relative to both intrinsic characteristics and environmental conditions. The majority of our data came from three species of wolves (gray wolves, eastern wolves, and red wolves) and coyotes. For these species, cohesion within social groups was greatest between breeding pairs and varied seasonally as the nature of cooperative activities changed relative to annual life history patterns. Across species, wolves were more cohesive than coyotes. For wolves, pairs were less cohesive in larger groups, and when suitable, small prey was present reflecting the constraints of food resources and intragroup competition on social associations. Pair cohesion in wolves declined with increased anthropogenic modification of the landscape and greater climatic variability, underscoring challenges for conserving social top predators in a changing world. We show that pairwise cohesion in social groups varies strongly both within and across Canis species, as individuals respond to changing ecological context defined by resources, competition, and anthropogenic disturbance. Our work highlights that cohesion is a highly plastic component of animal sociality that holds significant promise for elucidating ecological and evolutionary mechanisms underlying cooperative behavior.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Surrogate modelling the Baryonic Universe II: On forward modelling the colours of individual and populations of galaxies

ABSTRACT Among the properties shaping the light of a galaxy, the star formation history (SFH) is one of the most challenging to model due to the variety of correlated physical processes regulating star formation. In this work, we leverage the stellar population synthesis model fsps, together with SFHs predicted by the hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG and the empirical model universemachine, to study the impact of star formation variability on galaxy colours. We start by introducing a model-independent metric to quantify the burstiness of a galaxy formation model, and we use this metric to demonstrate that universemachine predicts SFHs with more burstiness relative to IllustrisTNG. Using this metric and principal component analysis, we construct families of SFH models with adjustable variability, and we show that the precision of broad-band optical and near-infrared colours degrades as the level of unresolved short-term variability increases. We use the same technique to demonstrate that variability in metallicity and dust attenuation presents a practically negligible impact on colours relative to star formation variability. We additionally provide a model-independent fitting function capturing how the level of unresolved star formation variability translates into imprecision in predictions for galaxy colours; our fitting function can be used to determine the minimal SFH model that reproduces colours with some target precision. Finally, we show that modelling the colours of individual galaxies with per cent-level precision demands resorting to complex SFH models, while producing precise colours for galaxy populations can be achieved using models with just a few degrees of freedom.

Chaves-Montero, Jonás (ORCID:0000000295534261)↗

Development of an adaptive hp-version finite element method for computational optimal control

In this research effort, the usefulness of hp-version finite elements and adaptive solution-refinement techniques in generating numerical solutions to optimal control problems has been investigated. Under NAG-939, a general FORTRAN code was developed which approximated solutions to optimal control problems with control constraints and state constraints. Within that methodology, to get high-order accuracy in solutions, the finite element mesh would have to be refined repeatedly through bisection of the entire mesh in a given phase. In the current research effort, the order of the shape functions in each element has been made a variable, giving more flexibility in error reduction and smoothing. Similarly, individual elements can each be subdivided into many pieces, depending on the local error indicator, while other parts of the mesh remain coarsely discretized. The problem remains to reduce and smooth the error while still keeping computational effort reasonable enough to calculate time histories in a short enough time for on-board applications.

Hodges, Dewey H.↗

Blazar Continuum Variability II: Entering the GLAST Era

Intense, highly-variable gamma-ray emission from blazars was a principal discovery made with EGRET on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory. The EGRET data remain a valuable resource for modeling of blazar astrophysics and for planning of future gamma-ray missions such as AGILE and GLAST. This presentation will review a bit of history and summarize the EGRET blazar legacy, with emphasis on work done since the end of the Compton Observatory mission.

Thompson, D. J.↗

Predictive Modeling for Differential Diagnosis and Mortality Risk Assessment

The prevalence of electronic health record (EHR) systems has brought prodigious biomedical informatics opportunity. Automated machine learning methods can effectively utilize such data and have become common tools for healthcare predictive modeling. Researches in medical informatics have explored the potential of deep learning and classical models in emergent care scenarios. In particular, predicting differential diagnoses for admissions have proven useful in decreasing unnecessary lab tests and improving inpatient triage decision-making. Moreover, identification of high-risk patients for in-hospital mortality is vitally important to maximize allocation of medical resources.The Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database, containing de-identified critical care inpatient was used in our study. This data set captures hospital patient laboratory measurements, pharmacologic prescriptions, diagnostic data and procedure event recordings. When considering adult patients and discounting admissions with ICU length of stay less than 24 hours, there were 37,787 unique admissions and 30,414 total patients. We examined the top 25 most prevalent ICD-9 group-level disease specificities in MIMIC-III using a multi-label classification model. In-hospital mortality was modeled as binary classification with 4,155 (13%) adult patients that expired, of which 3,138 (75.5%) were in the ICU setting. The metrics AUC, F1 score, sensitivity and specificity values calculated for each disease label measured prediction performance.The usage of ICD-9 group codes reduced feature dimension from 14,567 to 942 and greatly improved distribution of patient diagnostic categories. Disease temporal patterns were captured by considering the most frequently sampled 6 vital signs and 13 laboratory values. Missing data were imputed at each time-stamp. Time-series raw hourly average values were converted into 5 summary features (mean, standard deviation, number of observations, min & max values). Patient demographic variables such as age, gender, marital status and ethnicity were also factored into the modeling. Choi et al showed that contextual embedding of medical data, diagnostic and procedural codes alone can predict future diagnoses with sensitivity as high as 0.79. We utilized an embedding technique called word2vec which allowed sparse representations of medical history to be transformed into dense word vectors. The mappings captured contextual information by treating each admission as a sentence and learning the most likely neighboring words in a sliding window fashion. Binary and multi-label classification was achieved via collapse models, which do not consider temporal information, as well as recurrent neural networks with regularization, Softmax output layer activation together with categorical cross-entropy as the loss function.

US Army collaboration↗

Venus Flagship Mission Concept: A Decadal Survey Study

More than any other known planet, Venus is essential to our understanding of the evolution and habitability of Earth-size planets throughout the galaxy. We address two critical questions for planetary science: 1) How, if at all, did Venus evolve through a habitable phase? 2) What circumstances affect how volatiles shape habitable worlds? More than any other group, volatile elements have a strong influence on the evolutionary paths of rocky bodies and are critical to understanding solar system evolution. It is clear that Venus experienced a different volatile element history from the Earth and provides the only accessible example of one end-state of habitable Earth-size planets. Venus will allow us to identify the mechanisms that operate together to produce and maintain habitable worlds like our own.The (VFM) concept architecture relies on five collaborative platforms: an Orbiter, Lander, variable-altitude Aerobot and two Small Satellites (SmallSats) delivered via a single launch on a Falcon 9 heavy expendable. The platforms would use multiple instruments to measure the exosphere, atmosphere and surface at multiple scales with high precision and over time. VFM would provide the first measurements of mineralogy and geochemistry of tessera terrain to examine rocks considered to be among the most likely to have formed in a habitable climate regime. Landed, descent, aerial and orbital platforms would work synergistically to measure the chemical composition of the atmosphere including the Aerobot operating for 60 days in the Venus clouds. Loss mechanisms would be constrained by the SmallSats in two key orbits. The baseline payload for VFM includes instruments to make the first measurements of seismicity and remanent magnetism, the first long-lived (60 day) surface platform and the first life detection instrument at Venus to interrogate what could be an inhabited world.The VFM concept directly addresses each of the three Venus Exploration Analysis Group (VEXAG) goals as well as several of the strategic objectives of the 2020 NASA Science Plan, Planetary Science Division, Heliophysics and Astrophysics. The simultaneous, synergistic measurements of the solid body, surface, atmosphere and space environment provided by the VFM would allow us to target the most accessible Earth-size planet in our galaxy, and gain a profound new understanding of the evolution of our solar system and habitable worlds.

Segura, Marcia↗

Update on an investigation of flight buffeting of a variable-sweep aircraft

A detailed investigation of flight buffeting response of an F-111A aircraft was performed. AIAA Paper No. 74-358 presented results of an initial study of wing and fuselage responses measured at subsonic speeds and wing leading-edge sweep of 26 degrees. The present paper gives additional results for wing sweeps of 26, 50 and 72.5 degrees at Mach numbers up to 1.2 including horizontal tail responses. Power spectra, response time histories, variations of rms response with angle of attack, and effects of Mach number and wing sweep angle are discussed.

Benepe, D. B.↗

Younger facial looks are associate with a lower likelihood of several age-related morbidities in the middle-aged to elderly

Abstract Background Looking older for one’s chronological age is associated with a higher mortality rate. Yet it remains unclear how perceived facial age relates to morbidity and the degree to which facial ageing reflects systemic ageing of the human body. Objectives To investigate the association between ΔPA and age-related morbidities of different organ systems, where ΔPA represents the difference between perceived age (PA) and chronological age. Methods We performed a cross-sectional analysis on data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study in the Netherlands. High-resolution facial photographs of 2679 men and women aged 51.5–87.8 years of European descent were used to assess PA. PA was estimated and scored in 5-year categories using these photographs by a panel of men and women who were blinded for chronological age and medical history. A linear mixed model was used to generate the mean PAs. The difference between the mean PA and chronological age was calculated (ΔPA), where a higher (positive) ΔPA means that the person looks younger for their age and a lower (negative) ΔPA that the person looks older. ΔPA was tested as a continuous variable for association with ageing-related morbidities including cardiovascular, pulmonary, ophthalmological, neurocognitive, renal, skeletal and auditory morbidities in separate regression analyses, adjusted for age and sex (model 1) and additionally for body mass index, smoking and sun exposure (model 2). Results We observed 5-year higher ΔPA (i.e. looking younger by 5 years for one’s age) to be associated with less osteoporosis [odds ratio (OR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62–0.93], less chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.77–0.95), less age-related hearing loss (model 2; B = −0.76, 95% CI −1.35 to −0.17) and fewer cataracts (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.73–0.97), but with better global cognitive functioning (g-factor; model 2; B = 0.07, 95% CI 0.04–0.10). Conclusions PA is associated with multiple morbidities and better cognitive function, suggesting that systemic ageing and cognitive ageing are, to an extent, externally visible in the human face.

Mekić, Selma↗

Dynamic tooth loads and stressing for high contact ratio spur gears

A time history, closed form solution is presented for a dynamic model of spur gear systems for all practical contact ratios. The analysis determines the dynamic response of the gear system and the associated tooth loads and stressing. The dynamic model assumes the two gears act as a rigid inertia and the teeth act as a variable spring of a dynamic system excited by the meshing action of the teeth. Included in the analysis are the effects of the nonlinearity of the tooth pair stiffness during mesh, the tooth errors, and the tooth profile modifications. Besides reviewing the features, solution, and program of this analysis, preliminary results from applying the analysis are presented, which show that tooth profile modification, system inertia and damping, and system critical speeds can affect the dynamic gear tooth loads and stressing significantly.

Cornell, R. W.↗

Optimal selection of space transportation fleet to meet multi-mission space program needs

A space program that spans several decades will be comprised of a collection of missions such as low earth orbital space station, a polar platform, geosynchronous space station, lunar base, Mars astronaut mission, and Mars base. The optimal selection of a fleet of several recoverable and expendable launch vehicles, upper stages, and interplanetary spacecraft necessary to logistically establish and support these space missions can be examined by means of a linear integer programming optimization model. Such a selection must be made because the economies of scale which comes from producing large quantities of a few standard vehicle types, rather than many, will be needed to provide learning curve effects to reduce the overall cost of space transportation if these future missions are to be affordable. Optimization model inputs come from data and from vehicle designs. Each launch vehicle currently in existence has a launch history, giving rise to statistical estimates of launch reliability. For future, not-yet-developed launch vehicles, theoretical reliabilities corresponding to the maturity of the launch vehicles' technology and the degree of design redundancy must be estimated. Also, each such launch vehicle has a certain historical or estimated development cost, tooling cost, and a variable cost. The cost of a launch used in this paper includes the variable cost plus an amortized portion of the fixed and development costs. The integer linear programming model will have several constraint equations based on assumptions of mission mass requirements, volume requirements, and number of astronauts needed. The model will minimize launch vehicle logistic support cost and will select the most desirable launch vehicle fleet.

Morgenthaler, George W.↗

Spinning Spacecraft Attitude Estimation Using Markley Variables: Filter Implementation And Results

Attitude estimation is often more difficult for spinning spacecraft than for three-axis stabilized platforms due to the need to follow rapidly-varying state vector elements and the lack of three-axis rate measurements from gyros. The estimation problem simplifies when torques are negligible and nutation has damped out, but the general case requires a sequential filter with dynamics propagation. This paper describes the implementation and test results for an extended Kalman filter for spinning spacecraft attitude and rate estimation based on a novel set of variables suggested in a paper by Markley [AAS93-3301 (referred to hereafter as Markley variables). Markley has demonstrated that the new set of variables provides a superior parameterization for numerical integration of the attitude dynamics for spinning or momentum-biased spacecraft. The advantage is that the Markley variables have fewer rapidly-varying elements than other representations such as the attitude quaternion and rate vector. A filter based on these variables was expected to show improved performance due to the more accurate numerical state propagation. However, for a variety of test cases, it has been found that the new filter, as currently implemented, does not perform significantly better than a quaternion-based filter that was developed and tested in parallel. This paper reviews the mathematical background for a filter based on Markley variables. It also describes some features of the implementation and presents test results. The test cases are based on a mission using magnetometer and Sun sensor data and gyro measurements on two axes normal to the spin axis. The orbit and attitude scenarios and spacecraft parameters are modeled after one of the THEMIS (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms) probes. Several tests are presented that demonstrate the filter accuracy and convergence properties. The tests include torque-free motion with various nutation angles, large constant-torque attitude slews, sensor misalignments, large initial attitude and rate errors, and cases with low data frequency. It is found that the convergence is rapid, the radius of convergence is large, and the results are reasonably accurate even in the presence of unmodeled perturbations.

Sedlak, Joseph E.↗

Return-to-launch-site variable range-velocity line

The effect of moving the return-to-launch-site (RTLS) range-velocity (R-V) line closer to the landing site was studied. Results are presented which show that a five nautical mile shift in R-V line causes the last RTLS abort to occur approximately one second earlier and that the excess range capability to terminal-area-energy-management interface can be dissipated without an excessive roll angle history.

Bown, R. L.↗