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At least 451 records · Page 25

Completion of initial reduced-order model for flammable refrigerant dispersal in residential spaces

Environmental regulations aimed at reducing global warming impacts of HVAC&R refrigerants have resulted in the phase-out of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in 2010 and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) by 2030 in developed countries with additional restrictions on the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) set to take effect in 2036. Many of the remaining alternative refrigerants that have lower global warming potential (GWP) and that are suitable for use in HVAC&R systems (e.g., propane, difluoromethane) are flammable to some degree. Flammable refrigerants introduce new challenges and hazards to property and personal safety related to potential deflagration during system maintenance or due to leakage of the refrigerant accumulating in the conditioned space. Standards have been developed to set maximum charge limits for flammable refrigerants in HVAC&R systems; however, existing safety standards and codes still restrict their use. The bodies that maintain and update these codes need publicly available, science-based information to enable credible guidelines for setting safe charge limits for different flammable refrigerants in different HVAC&R applications. In 2016, the Alliance for Responsible Atmospheric Policy, the Air-Conditioning Heating and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), ASHRAE, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the State of California began efforts to develop such information. As part of this effort, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) began the current, ongoing project to examine imposed charge limits for flammable refrigerants and identify reasonable adjustments to these limits when found appropriate. Past tasks under this project have included development of experimentally vetted, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation approaches to study the results of leakage of flammable refrigerants from various HVAC&R systems into different types of commercial and residential spaces. In this report, we discuss recent efforts to develop a predictive model of the flammable volume fraction and accumulated refrigerant mass in a single-room residential space resulting from the leak of a flammable refrigerant from a small room air conditioning (RAC) unit. The eventual goal is development of a model suitable for public release which could simulate a range of scenarios. In discussions with the AHRTI Flammable Refrigerant Subcommittee (FRS) at the beginning of this effort, a total of 9 input parameters were chosen for consideration including room area, room/door opening area, ventilation fan flow rate, unit/leak height, leak area, leak rate, total refrigerant charge, refrigerant molecular weight, and state of the unit fan.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Extreme windstorms in the Northeastern USA in the contemporary and future climate

Cold-season windstorms represent an important, and potentially changing, geophysical hazard in the Northeastern United States. Here we employ an integrated research methodology including both a storyline approach, where three intense windstorms from the current climate are subjected to pseudo-global warming (PGW) experiments, and a long-term transient simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. An ensemble of WRF simulations is built for each windstorm using different planetary boundary layer and microphysical parameterizations. The fidelity assessment suggests all ensemble members capture the windstorm evolution in contemporary climate. The configuration with highest fidelity is used in the PGW experiments performed with perturbed temperature fields, constant relative humidity, and deiced Great Lakes. These perturbation simulations indicate some evidence for a reduction of sea level pressure and increases in wind speed over and downwind of the Great Lakes and over the Atlantic Ocean plus an increase in precipitation accumulation but a reduction in snow coverage. These changes are spatially inhomogeneous in terms of magnitude and sign but are consistent with changes in potential vorticity. Alberta Clippers and Colorado Lows dominate the cyclones responsible for historical windstorms and thus are sampled in the PGW simulations. However, the transient simulation suggests an increasing role for tropical cyclones that undergo transition to extratropical cyclones. Furthermore, this reinforces the value of combining information from both PGW perturbation experiments within a storyline context and transient simulations when seeking to quantify the future risk associated with cold-season windstorms under changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the influence of ENSO complexity on Pan-Pacific coastal wave extremes

Significance This study demonstrates how the main wave regimes in the Pacific, in particular related to tropical and extratropical storm activity, are activated by different El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections patterns. By combining these robust relationships with the latest theoretical advances in ENSO research, a mathematical model of wave energy modulation is derived. It allows a better representation of wave extremes over a range of time scales wider than previously possible with the previous baseline understanding of ENSO’s influence on coastal impacts. This paves the way for unprecedented seasonal to monthly forecasts of coastal hazards around the densely populated Pacific basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dislocation interactions in olivine control postseismic creep of the upper mantle

Changes in stress applied to mantle rocks, such as those imposed by earthquakes, commonly induce a period of transient creep, which is often modelled based on stress transfer among slip systems due to grain interactions. However, recent experiments have demonstrated that the accumulation of stresses among dislocations is the dominant cause of strain hardening in olivine at temperatures ≤600 °C, raising the question of whether the same process contributes to transient creep at higher temperatures. Here, we demonstrate that olivine samples deformed at 25 °C or 1150–1250 °C both preserve stress heterogeneities of ~1 GPa that are imparted by dislocations and have correlation lengths of ~1 μm. The similar stress distributions formed at these different temperatures indicate that accumulation of stresses among dislocations also provides a contribution to transient creep at high temperatures. The results motivate a new generation of models that capture these intragranular processes and may refine predictions of evolving mantle viscosity over the earthquake cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Integration of Large-Scale Electrical Imaging into Geological Framework Development and Refinement

Geologic framework models (GFMs) are critical to the construction of reliable simulation models of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. To support GFM development, direct information (e.g., core samples, fluid samples, hydraulic testing) tends to be sparse and separated by large distances relative to the spatial scales of aquifer heterogeneity. There are additional challenges associated with highly contaminated legacy waste sites, where drilling is particularly costly, and invasive sampling requires specialized handling and disposal of hazardous materials. At these sites in particular, non-invasive geophysical imaging can play an important role in filling spatial gaps between boreholes and reducing characterization costs by optimizing and minimizing the number of necessary boreholes. Here this paper presents a case study demonstrating the use of large-scale (> 30 km 2 ) electrical mapping to identify hydrostratigraphy and potential paleochannels at the Hanford Site, located in Washington State, USA. In two field campaigns, over 36 line-kilometers of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data were collected along 14 transects. ERT surveys were sited and performed to image critical aspects (e.g., paleochannels, stratigraphic contacts) of the subsurface, demonstrating a general workflow for integrating ERT with GFM development. Inconsistencies between the GFM and ERT were catalogued to provide a basis for future site characterization using complementary geophysical methods and (or) direct sampling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluation of possible reactivation of undetected faults during CO 2 injection

Geologic storage of carbon dioxide can efficiently contribute to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere. Two major hazards of this technology are leakage towards the ground surface and fluid-induced seismicity. While major faults may be detected and avoided during site characterization, undetected subseismic faults could be encountered once injection has started. This paper investigates leakage and reactivation of undetected faults through coupled thermal–hydraulic–mechanical modeling. The simulations are performed using a recently developed sequential simulator, TOUGH-Pylith, that allows to accurately account for the thermodynamics of brine-CO 2 injection mixtures, and to model faults as surfaces of discontinuity using state-of-the-art fault friction laws. The simulator is benchmarked against well-known analytical solutions and subsequently applied to investigate two cases of CO 2 injection injection close to undetected faults under normal and strike-slip faulting regimes. Furthermore, although the scenarios are generic and represent unfavorable conditions, they suggest that leakage could occur and that undetected faults could trigger minor seismic events. Therefore, careful site characterization and continuous monitoring during operations should be always performed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Multi‐Objective Urban Observational Strategies: A Risk‐Based Framework for Expanding Flood Sensor Networks

In coupled human and natural systems, developing an observation strategy which maximizes insight into both the natural system and the human system is a challenging multi-objective optimization problem. In this article, we describe the expansion of a flood risk observation system in Southeast Texas designed to improve our understanding of both physical and socioeconomic exposure to hydrological hazards at fine spatial scales, in the context of a structured hazard-exposure-vulnerability risk framework. We describe a new approach for assessing the spatial extent through which a flood sensor's observations can be assumed to be relevant, and estimate the population served within each sensor's area of information using downscaled socio-demographic data. As hydrological observations and modeling move to ever finer scale, assessing the information they contain in the context of both social and natural systems becomes increasingly important for developing actionable scientific insights.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Default Radioactive and Hazardous Waste Management (RHWM) Dose Conversion Factors (DCFs) and Weighting Factors and plutonium-239 equivalent Curie (PE-Ci) methodology for acceptance into the Waste Storage Facilities

DOE-STD-5506-2007 (Ref. 1) is the standard that provides the methodology for preparing hazard analysis and accident analysis for transuranic (TRU) waste facilities. The Waste Storage Facilities hazard and accident analysis for the DSA is developed in accordance with DOE-STD- 5506-2007. Two related issues need to be addressed when implementing DOE-STD-5506-2007 regarding the calculation of consequences from TRU waste releases in accident analysis: Consequences determined in accident analysis must be modeled using inhalation Dose Conversion Factors (DCFs) that are consistent with those from the International Commission on Radiological Protection Publication 72 (ICRP-72, Ref. 2).; The use of a statistical Material at Risk (MAR) representing the distribution of radiological loading of TRU waste containers based on the use of a plutonium-239 equivalent Curie (PE-Ci) methodology. The PE-Ci methodology simplifies accident analysis by allowing one to model releases based on the Curie value of one standard nuclide (e.g., Pu-239) instead of needing to model releases for every potential nuclide of interest. This is accomplished by normalizing the Curie value of all nuclides to a single Curie value of a standard nuclide by using a Weighting Factor that is a ratio of the DCFs associated with the nuclides and that of the standard nuclide. By using the ICRP-72 DCFs to calculate PE-Ci values used in the statistical MAR, the accident analysis that uses that statistical MAR will be consistent with the consequence methodology identified in DOE-STD- 5506-2007.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Hazards and Probabilistic Risk Assessments of Advanced Nuclear Reactors Coupled with Industrial Facilities

This report provides a roadmap and tool kit for site specific risk assessments across a broad range of industrial customers co-located with advanced nuclear power plants (ANPP) that are not currently built and operating in the U.S. This report builds upon the body of work sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) Integrated Energy Systems Pathway that has produced industrial requirements studies and techno-economic assessments on the topics of feasibility of ANPP supported industrial processes. This report also leverages the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program that has presented hazards assessment and generic probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) for the addition of a heat extraction system (HES) to light-water reactors (LWRs) co-located with hydrogen production facilities. Many of the hazard assessments and risk assessments performed for the LWRS report are agnostic to whether the nuclear reactor is an ANPP or were adapted to the ANPP focus. The report performs hazards assessments to include industrial facilities: an oil refinery, a methanol plant, a synthetic fuel (synfuel) plant, the production of synthetic gas (syngas) as part of the methanol and synfuel plants, wood pulp and paper mills, and hydrogen production. Hydrogen production facilities are assessed in depth through prior reports in the LWRS program and the results are leveraged in this report. All these facilities are specified through industrial process and requirements research performed by national laboratories, universities, and interaction with industry. Many of the processes used in this report are pre-conceptual designs to use for decarbonization of the current technology facilities. A process of failure modes and effects analysis (what can go wrong) and accidentology (what has historically gone wrong) was used to determine the hazards presented to the nuclear power plant by the addition of the HES and the industrial customer. Chemical properties of feedstocks and products are summarized as part of the hazards assessment. Example analysis procedures are provided for each of the hazard types identified. These deterministic analyses can be used to assess adherence to licensing criteria. They can also be used to meet other safety goals like protection of the public, workers, or industrial facility equipment. A modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR) PRA only existing on paper was modeled and verified in modern PRA software. This will provide a tool for representative ANPP probabilistic analyses for future research.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Explicit Dynamic Impact Analysis of the Building 3525 Packages

The safe transport and handling of radioactive material containers is critical to ensure the protection of personnel, facilities, and the environment. Accidental drops during handling pose a significant hazard, necessitating robust design and analysis to mitigate potential consequences. This study presents an explicit dynamic impact analysis of two container designs, the Baby Sugarman and the Core Conduction Cooldown Test Facility (CCCTF) Tall Boy, used in Building 3525 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The analysis employed nonlinear finite element modeling in LS-DYNA to simulate free-fall impacts from a height of 16.5 ft across eight critical orientations. The study evaluated deformation, strain failure, and shielding integrity under these extreme conditions. Results demonstrated that both designs maintain structural integrity, with no breaches or loss of shielding under specified administrative controls. Notably, a maximum shielding loss of 10 lbs was observed during a top-corner drop, highlighting the need to limit drop heights to less than 1 ft for certain orientations. These findings underscore the effectiveness of engineering controls and design measures in preventing containment breaches and ensuring compliance with safety requirements. This work provides a comprehensive methodology for impact analysis, contributing valuable insights to the field of radioactive materials packaging and transportation safety.

Martinez, Oscar [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000181814046)↗

A Predictive Model for Offgas Composition in Waste Glass Melters - Spring 2021 SULI General Audience Abstract

Approximately 56 million gallons of nuclear waste are currently stored in 177 underground storage tanks at the Hanford site in Washington state. A portion of the tank waste is targeted for immobilization by converting the nuclear waste to borosilicate glass through a process called vitrification. During vitrification, emissions are produced in addition to the intended glass product. These emissions, contained in a volume above the molten glass called the plenum, are composed of water vapor, air components, aerosols, particulates, and other gaseous species that result from evaporation, reactions, and air influx. The formation of these gasses causes the surface of the glass to foam. To reduce foaming, sucrose is added to the waste stream before the conversion to glass. Sucrose also reduces the formation of hazardous gasses in the plenum including nitrous oxides, NOx, and carboxides, COx. However, if excess sucrose is present, the reactions that produce the gasses in the plenum will be incomplete, and increased levels of NOx and COx can be observed. The Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant at the Hanford site is equipped with the technology to treat the plenum emissions. Though many tests have been run to determine the presence of particulates in the plenum emissions, there is does not exist an established method to confidently predict the composition of the gaseous species in the plenum prior to treatment without physical testing. A model was created in the process modeling software Aspen Plus to predict the composition of NOx and COx in the plenum. The model employs a constant stirred tank reactor and user-defined reaction chemistry to determine the plenum composition. To verify the model, the offgas predicted by the model were compared to available offgas data for ten different feed compositions. It is demonstrated that the developed Aspen Plus model is capable of predicting the composition of NOx and COx in the plenum.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Critical Infrastructure Decision-Making under Long-Term Climate Hazard Uncertainty: The Need for an Integrated, Multidisciplinary Approach

U.S. critical infrastructure assets are often designed to operate for decades, and yet long-term planning practices have historically ignored climate change. With the current pace of changing operational conditions and severe weather hazards, research is needed to improve our ability to translate complex, uncertain risk assessment data into actionable inputs to improve decision-making for infrastructure planning. Decisions made today need to explicitly account for climate change – the chronic stressors, the evolution of severe weather events, and the wide-ranging uncertainties. If done well, decision making with climate in mind will result in increased resilience and decreased impacts to our lives, economies, and national security. We present a three-tier approach to create the research products needed in this space: bringing together climate projection data, severe weather event modeling, asset-level impacts, and contextspecific decision constraints and requirements. At each step, it is crucial to capture uncertainties and to communicate those uncertainties to decision-makers. While many components of the necessary research are mature (i.e., climate projection data), there has been little effort to develop proven tools for long-term planning in this space. The combination of chronic and acute stressors, spatial and temporal uncertainties, and interdependencies among infrastructure sectors coalesce into a complex decision space. By applying known methods from decision science and data analysis, we can work to demonstrate the value of an interdisciplinary approach to climate-hazard decision making for longterm infrastructure planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Prestack Waveform Inversion at GC 955: Trials and sensitivity of PWI to high-resolution seismic data (Data Report)

Understanding the spatial extent and variability of hydrate deposits has important implications for potential economic production, climate change, and assessing natural hazards risks. Seismic reflection techniques are capable of determining the extent of gas hydrate deposits and can shed light on hydrate concentrations and properties. Using high resolution prestack time migrated seismic data collected during a 2013 US Geological Survey expedition and prestack waveform inversion (PWI) techniques, we produce highly resolved velocity models and compare them to co-located well logs. Coupling our PWI results with velocity-porosity relationships and nearby well control, we compare hydrate properties at site 955 in the Green Canyon and site 313 at Walker Ridge.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Anticipating how rain-on-snow events will change through the 21st century: lessons from the 1997 new year’s flood event

The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains understudied. We leverage the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood with horizontal grid spacings of 3.5 km across California, with forecast lead times of up to 4 days, and across six warming levels ranging from pre-industrial conditions to +3.5° C. We describe the sensitivity of the flood drivers to warming including AR duration and intensity, precipitation phase, intensity and efficiency, snowpack mass and energy changes, and runoff efficiency. Our findings indicate current levels of climate change negligibly influence the flood drivers. At warming levels ≥ 1.7° C, AR hazard potential increases, snowpack nonlinearly decreases, antecedent soil moisture decreases (except where the snowline retreats), and runoff decreases (except in the southern Sierra Nevada where antecedent snowpack persists). Storm total precipitation increases, but at rates below warming-induced increases in saturation-specific humidity. Warming intensifies short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, particularly where snowfall-to-rainfall transitions occur. This study highlights the nonlinear tradeoffs in 21st-century RoS flood hazards with warming and provides water management and infrastructure investment adaptation considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

EQSIM—A multidisciplinary framework for fault-to-structure earthquake simulations on exascale computers part I: Computational models and workflow

Computational simulations have become central to the seismic analysis and design of major infrastructure over the past several decades. Most major structures are now “proof tested” virtually through representative simulations of earthquake-induced response. More recently, with the advancement of high-performance computing (HPC) platforms and the associated massively parallel computational ecosystems, simulation is beginning to play a role in increased understanding and prediction of ground motions for earthquake hazard assessments. However, the computational requirements for regional-scale geophysics-based ground motion simulations are extreme, which has restricted the frequency resolution of direct simulations and limited the ability to perform the large number of simulations required to numerically explore the problem parametric space. In this article, recent developments toward an integrated, multidisciplinary earth science-engineering computational framework for the regional-scale simulation of both ground motions and resulting structural response are described with a particular emphasis on advancing simulations to frequencies relevant to engineered systems. This multidisciplinary computational development is being carried out as part of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Exascale Computing Project with the goal of achieving a computational framework poised to exploit emerging DOE exaflop computer platforms scheduled for the 2022–2023 timeframe.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Pretest Modeling A Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Shake Test

The U.S. Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is planning to conduct a series of full-scale shake table tests to simulate hypothetical earthquake conditions and record the response of surrogate spent nuclear fuel (SNF) assemblies in a dry canister storage system mockup. The shake table motions will represent a range of hypothetical earthquake conditions at hypothetical locations in the continental U.S. to generally define the range of mechanical loads that SNF can be expected to experience during extended dry storage periods. This paper describes the pretest predictions made with LS-DYNA models of the mockup storage systems. The test will use two dry storage system configurations, a mockup vertical concrete cask (VCC) and a mockup horizontal storage module (HSM). The test will use a production-quality canister and basket. Within the canister will be four instrumented fuel assemblies with fuel rods containing surrogate mass and 28 instrumented dummy assemblies that are intended to match the mass and outer dimension of a fuel assembly. The finite element models include models of the VCC and HSM on the shake table to calculate the system level dynamic responses and separate single fuel assembly models to calculate stress and strain in fuel assembly components. Both types of models include nonlinear behavior like rod-to-rod contact and the ability for VCC’s to rock and slide. This paper presents the expected response of the VCC, HSM, and fuel assemblies to the shake table testing that is planned to start in April of 2024. The earthquake conditions represent seismic hazards in the 2,000-to-20,000-year return period range. The test data is expected to confirm the expectation that fuel rod cladding will remain intact, fuel assembly structural components like guide tubes will remain intact, and no significant VCC sliding or tipping will occur in the range of conditions to be tested with the shake table.

Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.↗

Anticipating water distribution service outages from increasing temperatures

With projected temperature increases and extreme events due to climate change for many regions of the world, characterizing the impacts of these emerging hazards on water distribution systems is necessary to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies for ensuring reliability. To aid decision-making, new insights are needed into how water distribution system reliability to climate-driven heat will change, and the proactive maintenance strategies available to combat failures. To this end, we present the model Perses, a framework that joins a water distribution network hydraulic solver with reliability models of physical assets or components to estimate temperature increase-driven failures and resulting service outages in the long term. A theoretical case study is developed using Phoenix, Arizona temperature profiles, a city with extreme temperatures and a rapidly expanding infrastructure. By end-of-century under hotter futures there are projected to be 1%–5% more pump failures, 2%–5% more PVC pipe failures, and 3%–7% more iron pipe failures (RCP 4.5–8.5) than a baseline historical temperature profile. Service outages, which constitute inadequate pressure for domestic and commercial use are projected to increase by 16%–26% above the baseline under maximum temperature conditions. The exceedance of baseline failures, when compounded across a large metro region, reveals potential challenges for budgeting, management, and maintenance. An exploration of the mitigation potential of adaptation strategies shows that expedited repair times are capable of offsetting the additional outages from climate change, but will come with a cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗