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At least 451 records · Page 25

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

Integration of Total-Sky Imager Data with a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model for Intra-Hour Forecasting of Solar Radiation

Short-term solar forecasting models based solely on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements are often unable to discriminate the forecasting of the factors affecting GHI from those that can be precisely computed by atmospheric models. Our previous study introduced a Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) that decomposed the forecasting of GHI into the computation of extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle and the forecasting of cloud albedo and cloud fraction. The extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle were accurately computed by the Solar Position Algorithm (SPA) developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). A cloud retrieval technique was used to estimate cloud albedo and cloud fraction from surface-based observations of GHI. With the assumption of persistent cloud structures, the cloud albedo and cloud fraction were predicted for future time steps using a two-stream approximation and a 5-minute exponential weighted moving average, respectively. The model evaluation indicated the estimation and forecast of cloud fraction mostly contributed to the uncertainty of the PSPI though it overcame the persistence and smart persistence models in all forecast time horizons between 5 and 60 minutes. This study aims to enhance the PSPI by ingesting surface-based observations of cloud fraction from a total sky imager (TSI). The estimation and forecast of cloud albedo is correspondingly improved by utilizing the cloud fraction observations and thus leads to more accurate GHI forecast. Various time-series analysis methods are also investigated on the forecasting of cloud fraction and cloud albedo for further improving the GHI forecast. These improvements are valuable for many applications, such as forecasting energy use for buildings, grid operations, and ultimately bringing down the cost of solar energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Commercial building loads providing ancillary services In PJM

The adoption of low carbon energy technologies such as variable renewable energy and electric vehicles, coupled with the efficacy of energy efficiency to reduce traditional base load has increased the uncertainty inherent in the net load shape. Handling this variability with slower, traditional resources leads to inefficient system dispatch, and in some cases may compromise reliability. Grid operators are looking to future energy technologies, such as automated demand response (DR), to provide capacity-based reliability services as the need for these services increase. While DR resources are expected to have the flexibility characteristics operators are looking for, demonstrations are necessary to build confidence in their capabilities. Additionally, building owners are uncertain of the monetary value and operational burden of providing these services. To address this, the present study demonstrates the ability of demand response resources providing two ancillary services in the PJM territory, synchronous reserve and regulation, using an OpenADR 2.0b signaling architecture. The loads under control include HVAC and lighting at a big box retail store and variable frequency fan loads. The study examines performance characteristics of the resource: the speed of response, communications latencies in the architecture, and accuracy of response. It also examines the frequency and duration of events and the value in the marketplace which can be used to examine if the opportunity is sufficient to entice building owners to participate.

MacDonald, Jason↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Structural Time Series for Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Disaggregation

Distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation often occurs ``behind the meter": a grid operator can only observe the net load, which is the sum of the gross load and distributed PV generation. This lack of observability poses a challenge to system operation at both bulk level and distribution level. The lack of real-time or near-future disaggregated estimates of gross load and PV generation will lead to over scheduling of energy production and regulation reserves, reliability constraints violations, wear and tear of controller devices, and potentially cascading failures of a system. In this paper we propose the use of a Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model with local solar irradiance measurements to disaggregate the summed PV generation and gross load signals at a downstream measurement site. BSTSs are a highly expressive model class that blends classic time series models with the powerful Bayesian state space estimation framework. Disaggregation is done probabilistically, which automatically quantifies the uncertainties of the estimated PV generation and gross load consumption. Depending on the data availability in real-time, it can be used to disaggragate PV and gross load at customer site, or can be used at the feeder level. In this paper, we focus on solving the problem at feeder level. We compare the performance of a BSTS model as well as a handful of state-of-the-art methods on a Pecan Street AMI dataset, using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to estimate local irradiance.

bayesian structural time series↗

DOE OSTI2020

FNET/GridEye: A Tool for Situational Awareness of Large Power Interconnetion Grids

This paper gives an overview of a wide-area measurement system deployed at the distribution level: FNET/GridEye, which consists of hundreds of sensors, communication and a data center. The sensors are utilized to take frequency, voltage phase angle and magnitude measurements from the ordinary 110 or 220V outlets in offices or residential houses. These measurements are continuously transmitted to the data center via Internet. Many applications have been implemented to monitor large-scale interconnected power grids, and interpret grid operation status to improve system operators' situational awareness capability. Some representative online and offline applications are presented in this paper, as well as several recently developed new applications.

Zhu, Lin↗

DOE OSTI2021

Incorporating Residential Smart Electric Vehicle Charging in Home Energy Management Systems: Preprint

Electric vehicles are expected to drastically increase residential electricity consumption and provide a significant source of flexible demand. Aggregating smart EV charge controllers with other smart home devices through a home energy management system can lead to more optimal outcomes that benefit homeowners, utilities, and grid operators. Control strategies must account for occupant convenience by considering the need for fully charged EVs at any time of day. In this paper, we develop an EV charging framework that accounts for occupant convenience using OCHRE, a residential energy model, and foresee, a home energy management system. We simulate a community with high EV penetration and show that integrated, smart EV charging reduces peak demand and smooths night-time energy consumption. Simulation results show that the proposed control strategy nearly eliminates peak period EV charging and reduces the daily peak demand from EVs by 23%.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Storage Requirements for Grid Integration of Marine Renewable Energy - a Parametric Study

Marine resources such as waves and tides house immense potential to serve as energy-rich sources of renewable power generation. They are known to be highly available,persistent and predictable in nature. Therefore, these can serve as one of the critical components for a primarily renewable energy-driven, resilient and robust future power grid. Although some inherent temporal characteristics of these resources lend themselves favorably to potential grid applications, the inclusion of storage allows the benefits and value streams to become realized more fully. In this paper, we present a framework for assessing impact of marine energy resources inclusion on the overall load generation balance and its impact on the relevant storage requirements to obtain the desired level of renewable energy penetration. From this study, we can critically infer two main points - (a) the relative storage requirements for grid operations with and without marine energy, and (b) the avoided cost of storage by including marine energy into the generation mix. We demonstrate our framework for two different locations across the United States.

Hanif, Sarmad↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact of DER Communication Delay in AGC: Cyber-Physical Dynamic Co-Simulation: Preprint

Distributed energy resource (DER) frequency regulations are promising technologies for future grid operation. Unlike conventional generators, DERs might require open communication networks to exchange signals with control centers, possibly through DER aggregators; therefore, the impacts of the communication variations including the latency on the system frequency stability need to be investigated. This paper develops a cyber-physical dynamic simulation (CPDS) model based on the Hierarchical Engine for Large-Scale Co-Simulation (HELICS) to evaluate the impact of the communication variations, such as delays in DER frequency regulations. The feasible delay range can be obtained under different AGC parameter settings. The results show that the risk of instability generally increases with the communication delay and that the difference of AGC provided from DER and conventional generation units should be recognized when designing frequency regulation controllers.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2022

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Technical Advisory Group Meeting #11

A technical advisory group guided the End-Use Load Profiles dataset development to ensure that the direction and outcomes of the work were aligned with market needs. The technical advisory group included roughly 100 representatives from organizations that were likely to use the resulting load profiles in their work, including utility companies, utility program implementers, grid operators, consultancies, research centers, state regulatory agencies, and regional energy efficiency organizations. This is the presentation from TAG Meeting #11.

buildings↗

DOE OSTI2022

1.2.2.404 – Improving the Representation of Hydropower in Production Cost Models

This project's goal is to improve hydropower's representation in power system models by actively coupling river basin (hydrologic) models with grid operations (production cost) models. Near term, this work provides a foundation that allows improved available flexibility and operational constraints representation. Longer term, the work will provide a template that can be used by commercial production cost modeling software vendors to capture the nuances of hydropower operations in their software offerings.

HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimization of Energy Storage System Economics and Controls by Incorporating Battery Degradation Costs in REopt

The use of stationary electrochemical energy storage systems utilizing lithium-ion batteries has increased rapidly as the production scale and price for lithium-ion batteries has decreased. These energy storage systems are crucial for maintaining grid resiliency, especially for grids operating with high penetration of renewable energy generation assets or for with a variety of distributed energy generation and storage systems. One challenging factor for the development of battery energy storage systems is estimating the proper sizing, in terms of both power and energy, that minimizes total costs over the lifetime of the systems; this calculation is difficult in simple cases, where a battery is costed independently, but is extremely challenging when building loads and electrical generation by photovoltaic resources are also considered. REopt is a techoeconomic optimization tool developed by NREL to address these challenges. Previously, battery degradation has been priced by simply assuming a 10-year replacement schedule for battery systems. However, this does not account for varying degradation trends observed across real-world batteries, or allow for batteries to be operated in a degradation-aware manner that optimizes battery dispatch based on operating costs. This work incorporates a battery life model into REopt. This battery life model is simple, so that it may be solvable within the constrains of a mixed-integer linear optimization problem, but is fit to accelerated aging data recorded in the lab. To achieve the best possible accuracy for lifetime estimates given these constraints, parameters for the battery life model in REopt are estimated by fitting 20-year simulations of battery life after identifying state-space battery degradation model from accelerated aging data. Comparisons of battery life predicted in REopt and from the state-space battery degradation model to ensure validity of lifetime estimates made by REopt. Battery life and cost is optimized by controlling three decision to minimize system life cost: battery sizing, daily state-of-charge, and daily energy-throughput. The cost of battery degradation as a function of these control variables is then estimated assuming two possible maintenance strategies: replacement, where the entire battery system is replaced if cell reach an end-of-life capacity threshold; and augmentation, which establishes a fund to pay for continual purchase of new batteries to maintain the initial energy capacity of the system. These two strategies offer conservative (for replacement) and optimistic (for augmentation) bounds for total system cost. The degradation cost incurred by these strategies is then used to control battery dispatch decisions, operating the battery in a degradation-aware manner that maximizes battery lifetime while also providing energy when favorable. Because the mixed-integer linear program has perfect foresight of future energy needs, batteries with degradation costs are always operated using 'just-in-time' charging, which is unrealistic, as no energy is left in the storage system to perform other energy services or to serve as emergency back-up power. To combat this, an inequality constraint on the average annual state-of-charge is imposed, and the sensitivity of system cost to average stored energy, e.g., the cost of system resiliency, can be quantified. Analysis of results has several conclusions, for instance, oversizing of battery storage systems is not a cost burden when battery storage is an optimal solution, as any additional battery capacity can simply be utilized to avoid costs of purchasing energy from a utility.

battery↗

DOE OSTI2023

Two-Stage Deep Reinforcement Learning for Distribution System Voltage Regulation and Peak Load Management: Preprint

The growing integration of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) in distribution systems could result in adverse effects during grid operation. This paper develops a soft actor critic-based deep reinforcement learning (SAC-DRL) solution to simultaneously control PV inverters and battery energy storage systems for voltage regulation and peak load demand shaving. The novel two-stage framework, featured with two different control agents, is applied for daytime and nighttime operation to enhance the control performance. Comparison results with other control methods on a real feeder in Western Colorado demonstrate that the proposed method can provide advanced voltage regulation with modest active power curtailment for peak demand reduction.

deep reinforcement learning↗

DOE OSTI2023

Managing Uncertainty and Flexibility in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets

Net load imbalances from day ahead forecasts can lead to significant grid operations costs and are expected to increase as variable renewable energy adoption grows. We propose a new wholesale market product to manage the risk of net load imbalances called Flexibility Options. This product relies on probabilistic forecasts to estimate flexibility demand and would be co-optimized in the day-ahead market. We also propose stochastic methods that enable DER and flexible load aggregators to participate in flexibility markets while considering the uncertainty in weather and occupant behavior.

day-ahead market↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty-aware photovoltaic generation estimation through fusion of physics with harmonics information using Bayesian neural networks

We develop an aggregate photovoltaic generation estimation methodology that uses diverse inputs and can reason on its current input-dependent predictive uncertainty. Named PVPHEst, for PhotoVoltaic Physics- & Harmonics-driven Estimator, the resulting tool is intelligently weighing and fusing information carried by the output of physics models, harmonics, and line sensors, using Bayesian neural networks and related techniques aimed at solving machine learning problems with intrinsic uncertainty quantification. As each of the three input classes carries heterogeneous information that only sheds light on one facet of the estimation problem but its value can diminish in the face of diverse grid phenomena, PV-PHEst with its estimation and uncertainty reasoning capabilities perform a nontrivial and potentially mission-critical task of value to grid operators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Preventive Power Outage Estimation Based on A Novel Scenario Clustering Strategy: Preprint

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events is challenging the power grid operation. In front of the extreme weather, the system operator is responsible for estimating the power outage and scheduling the restoration resources. This paper proposes an outage evaluation framework to identify the possible unserved load profiles, vulnerable areas, and mobile energy adequacy. The predicted vulnerable lines of an outage prediction model tool are utilized to generate numerous faulted line scenarios. Next, each scenario's nodal unserved load profile is obtained by solving a three-phase restoration model that considers the schedule of repair crews and mobile energy resources. Then, a novel scenario clustering strategy is developed to cluster the unserved load profiles into multiple representative ones for straightforward analysis. Finally, case studies on a distribution system evaluate the damage level brought by extreme weather and verify the effectiveness of the proposed scenario clustering strategy.

mobile energy resources↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Customer Experience and Business Models around Price-to-Device Communication and Smart Control Pathways in CalFlexHub

California is facing three major challenges in electrical grid operation: renewable overgeneration, steep evening ramping, and growing peak demand. The state has identified dynamic retail price response as a key strategy evidenced by CPUC’s Dynamic Rates proceeding and CEC’s Load Management Standards. Furthermore, the CEC launched a $16M “California Load Flexibility Research and Deployment Hub (CalFlexHub)” administered by Berkeley Lab to accelerate price-response flexible load technologies in buildings and EV charging. There are more than 16 laboratory and field demonstration projects in CalFlexHub, each demonstrating innovative automated price-response technologies. CalFlexHub tests various pathways through which hourly price signals and triggered control commands are communicated to load-flexible devices such as smart thermostats, heat pumps, water heaters, and EVs. We identified seven unique communication and control pathways, which involve combinations of third-party cloud, device OEM’s cloud, building central gateway, and local controller in between the price server and the load-flexible devices. It is important for utilities and policy makers to understand the long-term implications of each pathway in designing future programs and creating related policies and mandates for market transformation. We propose an evaluation framework including the following aspects: ● Functionality: connectivity and uptime, resilience, and optimization; ● Customer experience: simplicity in setup, troubleshooting support, continuity, customer choice, first cost, and ongoing cost; ● Business model and scalability: advance interoperability, holistic solution, bridge unique gap, customer base, and value streams and pricing structures. In this paper, we identify emerging business models associated with each communication pathway and discuss their positive features and challenges from the above aspects.

Liu, Jingjing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting for a Residential Household in Alaska

Accurate short-term load forecasting at a fine scale is essential for demand response programs, peak shaving, and load-shedding strategies [1]. While traditionally, only aggregate short-term consumption data was available, advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) now provides data at the individual consumer level [1]. There is increasing interest in utilizing this data for short-term load forecasting (from an hour to a few days) to optimize grid operations. Electricity consumption in individual households is highly influenced by residents’ personal behaviors [2]. As a result, unlike aggregate loads, electrical power usage in single households often shows significant volatility, making meter-level load forecasting for individual users particularly challenging [3], [4]. Deep learning methods, with their strong ability to model nonlinear data, have become popular for improving the accuracy of household electricity consumption forecasting [4]. Notably, the Long ShortTerm Memory (LSTM) has attracted significant attention [5], [6].

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the Verification of Deep Reinforcement Learning Solution for Intelligent Operation of Distribution Grids

Capabilities of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) in obtaining fast decision policies in high dimensional and stochastic environments have led to its extensive use in operational research, including the operation of distribution grids with high penetration of distributed energy resources (DER). However, the feasibility and robustness of DRL solutions are not guaranteed for the system operator, and hence, those solutions may be of limited practical value. This paper proposes an analytical method to find feasibility ellipsoids that represent the range of multi-dimensional system states in which the DRL solution is guaranteed to be feasible. Empirical studies and stochastic sampling determine the ratio of the discovered to the actual feasible space as a function of the sample size. In addition, the performance of logarithmic, linear, and exponential penalization of infeasibility during the DRL training are studied and compared in order to reduce the number of infeasible solutions

Hosseini, Mohammad Mehdi↗

DOE OSTI2020

State-Constrained Grid-Forming Inverter Control for Robust Operation of AC Microgrids

The control of grid-forming inverters has become an important problem to achieve high efficiency, reliability, and resilience of the future power grid. The distributed control that utilizes a sparse communication network has been proposed for AC microgrids, in which each DG only has access to the information of a small number of its neighboring DGs, reducing the computational complexity and improving the resiliency to faults and unknown parameters. However, these approaches have not provided a clear analysis of the coupling between active/reactive power injections and the voltage magnitude/frequency or a distributed updating law with a solid theoretical foundation. Additionally, in the existing approaches, tracking the references from the secondary control may violate operational constraints.

Xu, Ying↗