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At least 451 records · Page 25

Space Cooling: Recovery, Reuse, Recycling and Supply Chain Impacts

The global cooling sector has undergone tremendous growth in recent years, and cooling demand is projected to double or triple by 2050. Surging air conditioning demand will continue to be driven by increased populations, incomes and occurrences of extreme heat and humidity events. Cooling equipment growth has important pollution and material implications as they are made up of critical metals and precious raw materials - including ferrous metals, copper, aluminum and printed circuit boards composed of copper, silver, gold and palladium - that generate significant electronic waste at end-of-life. Air conditioning equipment also contains fluorinated gas (F-gas) refrigerants, which are potent gases that are thousands of times more heat-trapping than carbon dioxide (CO2). While recovery, reuse, and recycling strategies have been assessed for cold chain and refrigeration, there is currently limited analysis on how these strategies could be adopted for the global space cooling industry and potential supply chain implications. This paper aims to address this research gap by qualitatively evaluating product and material recovery, reuse and recycling frameworks from both demand and supply-side perspectives and with the support of cooling-specific case studies. It also focuses on quantitatively assessing potential energy, emissions and resource benefits of such strategies for space cooling equipment. This paper first analyzes how existing recovery, reuse and recycling frameworks can be applied to space cooling, with emphasis on the demand-side enablers (e.g., innovative business models, supporting policies and regulations) and changes in supply-side production network throughout the supply chain (e.g., design, production and distribution, end-of-life recovery) needed to overcome existing barriers. It will present case studies of innovative business models for space cooling technologies, including reuse and recycling, and how effective refrigerant reclamation and recovery programs have been operationalized. Lastly, the paper will highlight global modeling results of energy, emissions and material recovery from scenario analysis of selected strategies for air conditioners. The findings of this paper are intended to inform the development of product and material recovery, reuse and recycling strategies for a rapidly growing stock of space conditioning equipment by addressing existing organizational, economic and regulatory barriers and potential supply-chain bottlenecks.

Khanna, Nina↗

An Overview of Mesoscale Convective Systems: Global Climatology, Satellite Observations, and Modeling Strategies

Deep convection is responsible for redistributing water as well as energy and providing vital water resources for many regions of the world. Cumulonimbus clouds aggregation into a single storm system develop mesoscale convective systems (MCS). MCSs have precipitation covering a horizontal region on the scale of 100?km or more. After more than the last seven decades, MCS has been gradually received wide attention in the scientific community as an important component of the Earth's hydrologic cycle and energy balance. MCSs differ from ordinary deep convection because of the mesoscale circulations consisting of a layer of air overturning on a scale much larger than those created by individual convective updrafts or downdrafts. Moreover, a key feature that separates MCS from ordinary deep convection is the significant portion of stratiform precipitation that results in the production and detrainment of a large number of ice particles from their organized convective cores and continues the mesoscale ascent that supports ice growth and aggregation as the crystals fall. This significant stratiform precipitation gives rise to top-heavy latent heating profiles that have substantial impacts on the upper-level global circulations, especially for those MCS that have a larger portion of stratiform rainfall. Top-heavy latent heating profiles are more frequent over the ocean than over the land. These unique features of MCS suggest that they are important for the hydrologic cycle, general circulation, and radiative balance of the climate system. In this chapter, we focus on the recent advances in the climatological perspective of MCS as well as the research tools used to better understand MCS after the advent of the satellite era. We will discuss both tropical and midlatitude MCS, the influence of modes of tropical climate variability on MCS, and the new insight from satellite observations on MCS interaction with the land surface.

Chakraborty, Sudip↗

The Geothermal Entrepreneurship Organization (GEO) Accelerating Technology Transfer, Testing and Adoption of Cutting-edge Extreme Environment Drilling

The Geothermal Entrepreneurship Organization launched in 2019 with the goal of building a geothermal innovation ecosystem at the University of Texas at Austin (UT Austin), and in the State of Texas at large. The theses underlying the work of GEO were 1) that with targeted advocacy, recruitment, organization, and coalition building, research institutions with legacy excellence in petroleum and geosystems engineering could become engines of geothermal innovation, research and development; 2) that startups were the appropriate vehicle to speed these innovations from the lab into the field, and building a geothermal startup ecosystem in Texas would not only advance next generation geothermal concepts into the field, but also help spur oil and gas engagement in the space, and 3) that with targeted engagement, education, and recruitment across stakeholders in the oil and gas industry and the State of Texas generally, the oil and gas industry, and other legacy oil and gas entities in the State could become sources of large scale deployment of geothermal energy. The overall goal was to create a ‘snowball’ effect, where targeted impactful actions would catalyze self-sustaining, organic growth of a new geothermal ecosystem in the State of Texas. That goal was achieved through GEO’s work. To test its theses, GEO began work by interviewing and recruiting UT Austin faculty and alumni into geothermal. At the beginning of the GEO project, there was no geothermal activity ongoing within the UT Austin Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering Department, the Bureau of Economic Geology, or the Jackson School of Geoscience, and many faculty approached had not before considered how their skillsets might apply in the space. By the end of the project period, three major research consortia focused on geothermal were launched as a result of GEO’s work, one at the Bureau of Economic Geology, one within the Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering Department, and another organized by GEO across six research institutions across the State of Texas, called the Texas Geothermal Institute. Geothermal curricula was launched at UT Austin, and UT Austin began attracting new geothermal enthusiasts into its faculty, including Dr. Silviu Livescu, former Chief Scientist of Baker Hughes. Startups recruited and mentored by GEO launched, raised funding, and deployed (or are currently deploying) their concepts in the field. By the end of the project period, the GEO concept expanded to faculty beyond UT Austin to other institutions, like Texas A&M, the University of Houston, and Rice University, and geothermal engagement began at those institutions as well. Multiple faculty members and alumni across these institutions launched geothermal startup companies, launched geothermal research consortia, and/or began teaching geothermal courses. In 2020, GEO launched what was to become the largest geothermal conference in the world by its second year, ‘PIVOT – From Hydrocarbons to Heat’, and the resulting momentum catalyzed the Society of Petroleum Engineers to launch a geothermal technical section, drove more startups to launch out of the ecosystem, and drove actors in the State of Texas, NGOs, and stakeholders globally to become engaged. Riding this momentum, the Texas Geothermal Energy Alliance was launched, the first ever industry association dedicated to advancing geothermal energy in the State of Texas. The Texas geothermal ecosystem after only two years of building and support is now robust, quickly growing, and self-sustaining. By 2021, the Texas geothermal ecosystem had attracted the attention of philanthropists, funding entities, media, and influencers outside of Texas, and GEO’s executive director was invited to give a TED talk about oil and gas engagement in building the future of geothermal energy, which elevated the success of the ecosystem to a global audience.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Aligning theoretical and empirical representations of soil carbon-to-nitrogen stoichiometry with process-based terrestrial biogeochemistry models

Soil carbon-nitrogen (C:N) stoichiometry acts as a control over decomposition and soil organic matter formation and loss, making it a key soil property for understanding ecosystem dynamics and projected ecosystems responses to global environmental change. However, the controls of soil C:N and how they respond to increasing pressures from global change agents are not fully understood. The “foundational” controls on soil C:N, namely plant and microbial C:N, have been used to predict soil C:N, but fail to accurately simulate all ecosystems and may be insufficient for predictions under global environmental change. Here we present an “emerging” representation of controls of soil C:N that includes plant-microbe-mineral feedbacks that have been shown to regulate soil C:N. We argue that including representation of these emerging drivers in process-based terrestrial biogeochemistry models, which include biological N fixation, mycorrhizae, priming, root exudation of organic acids, and mineralogy (including soil texture, mineral composition, and aggregation), will improve mechanistic representation of soil C:N and associated processes. Such improvements will produce models that will better simulate a variety of ecological states and predict soil C:N when global changes modify plant-microbe-mineral interactions. Here, we align our empirical understanding of controls of soil C:N with those controls represented in models, identifying contexts where emerging drivers might be particularly important to represent (e.g., priming and root exudation in nutrient-limited conditions) and areas of future work. Additionally, we show that implementing emerging drivers of soil C:N results in different simulated outcomes at steady state and in response to elevated atmospheric CO2. Our review and preliminary simulations support the need to incorporate emerging drivers of soil C:N into process-based terrestrial biogeochemistry models, allowing for both theoretical exploration of mechanisms and potentially more accurate predictions of land biogeochemical responses to global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CMIP6-based Dynamically Downscaled Hydroclimate Projection over the Conterminous US

This dataset presents a suite of downscaled hydro-climate projections over the conterminous United States (CONUS) based on multiple selected Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs are downscaled dynamically using Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). Each ensemble member covers the 1980-2019 baseline and 2020-2059 near-future periods under the high-end (SSP585) emission scenario. This dataset is formulated to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). For further details on this dataset, please refer to Kao et al. (2022) and Rastogi et al. (2022).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Characterization of organic aerosol across the global remote troposphere: a comparison of ATom measurements and global chemistry models

The spatial distribution and properties of submicron organic aerosol (OA) are among the key sources of uncertainty in our understanding of aerosol effects on climate. Uncertainties are particularly large over remote regions of the free troposphere and Southern Ocean, where very few data have been available and where OA predictions from AeroCom Phase II global models span 2 to 3 orders of magnitude, greatly exceeding the model spread over source regions. The (nearly) pole-to-pole vertical distribution of non-refractory aerosols was measured with an aerosol mass spectrometer onboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft as part of the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission during the Northern Hemisphere summer (August 2016) and winter (February 2017). This study presents the first extensive characterization of OA mass concentrations and their level of oxidation in the remote atmosphere. OA and sulfate are the major contributors by mass to submicron aerosols in the remote troposphere, together with sea salt in the marine boundary layer. Sulfate was dominant in the lower stratosphere. OA concentrations have a strong seasonal and zonal variability, with the highest levels measured in the lower troposphere in the summer and over the regions influenced by biomass burning from Africa (up to 10 µg sm -3 ). Lower concentrations (~0.1–0.3 µg sm -3 ) are observed in the northern middle and high latitudes and very low concentrations (<0.1 µg sm -3 ) in the southern middle and high latitudes. The ATom dataset is used to evaluate predictions of eight current global chemistry models that implement a variety of commonly used representations of OA sources and chemistry, as well as of the AeroCom-II ensemble. The current model ensemble captures the average vertical and spatial distribution of measured OA concentrations, and the spread of the individual models remains within a factor of 5. These results are significantly improved over the AeroCom-II model ensemble, which shows large overestimations over these regions. However, some of the improved agreement with observations occurs for the wrong reasons, as models have the tendency to greatly overestimate the primary OA fraction and underestimate the secondary fraction. Measured OA in the remote free troposphere is highly oxygenated, with organic aerosol to organic carbon (OA/OC) ratios of ~2.2–2.8, and is 30 %–60 % more oxygenated than in current models, which can lead to significant errors in OA concentrations. The model–measurement comparisons presented here support the concept of a more dynamic OA system as proposed by Hodzic et al. (2016), with enhanced removal of primary OA and a stronger production of secondary OA in global models needed to provide better agreement with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Report on DOE-Supported Participation in the 18th International Congress on Photosynthesis Research (IPC 2022)

Photosynthesis is the primary natural process for conversion of solar energy to chemical energy. Solar energy is the only clean, renewable source of energy that has sufficient capacity to replace fossil fuels and meet rising global energy needs. Meeting this challenge means understanding photosynthetic energy conversion at a molecular level, a task requiring perspectives from all disciplines of science. The 18th International Congress on Photosynthesis (IPC) is facilitating just that by providing a forum for scientists from all corners of the world to come together to share ideas and build new collaborations that will improve the lives of future generations. A vibrant knowledge of each of the diverse aspects of basic and applied photosynthesis research obviously depends upon a healthy scientific exchange among the members of the research community. While senior scientists are more likely able to make the long trip to this important meeting, the travel costs for students and postdocs would otherwise prohibit participation for talented junior US scientists. At the same time, this is precisely the kind of meeting that strengthens interest and careers in the important scientific directions represented by this conference. For all scientists this is an opportunity to learn firsthand about the very latest advances in the field and to meet and brainstorm with collaborators as well as make new collaborations. For junior scientists, this funding is giving an opportunity to do these things plus it is often the first tangible experience regarding the global, international significance of their own projects. Overall, the diversity of topics and technical approaches is providing an extremely stimulating multidisciplinary environment for junior and senior scientists performing research in a variety of areas that are within the scope to the US DOE mission. In collaboration with the executive members of the North American Photosynthesis Conference Association (NAPCA and the International Society of Photosynthesis research (ISPR), a competitive selection of junior participants is being made based upon the quality of the abstracts and materials submitted by self-identified candidates that have applied following a broadcast call for applications from junior US scientists. Financial support is consisting of waivers for the registration cost of the meeting and partial living expenses at local dormitory facilities at the conference site.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Basic Research Needs for Communicating Basic Science

Basic science—also known as discovery or foundational research—is the fuel that powers our innovation ecosystem and the global economy. Despite this critical role, public awareness for how and where basic research is done, how it is funded, and its need for sustainable support over the long term is negligible. The ability to engage broader publics in awareness and understanding of basic science is paramount if we are to maintain the research enterprise that has transformed the modern world. Communicating how the federal government stewards taxpayer dollars for basic science is also incumbent on the agencies and scientists who use public dollars for their research. However, science communication is a complex activity that requires advanced planning, resources, and skill. Therefore, it is important to understand what we know about communicating basic science to the broader publics, as well as what we do not know, to be strategic and better equipped for effective, meaningful engagement. To identify and explore knowledge gaps in our understanding of basic science communication, the Science Public Engagement Partnership (SciPEP), a public-private partnership of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science and The Kavli Foundation, carried out a two-part landscape analysis: literature surveys of social science scholarship and a basic research needs conference.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

NCSP Training and Education Program [Slides]

The mission of the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program is to provide sustainable expert leadership, direction and the technical infrastructure necessary to develop, maintain, and disseminate the essential technical tools, training, and data required to support safe, efficient fissionable material operations within DOE; the vision of the program is a Continually improving, adaptable, and transparent program that communicates and collaborates globally to incorporate technology, practices, and programs to be responsive to the essential technical needs of those responsible for developing, implementing, and maintaining nuclear criticality safety. Training and education topics for the program include a 1-week Manager/Criticality Safety Officer Course and a 2-week NCS Engineer Hands-on Training Course.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Australian Safeguards and Non-Proliferation Office Visit: Nuclear Nonproliferation and Security Program at LANL [Slides]

The Laboratory’s nuclear nonproliferation and security portfolio is managed by the GS-NNS program office: NNSA’s Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation office (DNN) makes up ~80% of our work. We also support State Dept activities closely aligned with our work for DNN and NASAprograms. Our work is executed across the entire Laboratory, approximately half in the Global Security directorate and a third in the Weapons Program.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Unpinning the Lynchpin: Development of a system to introduce redundancy at Department of Energy laboratories

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) laboratory system employs over 78,000 people and had a budget of $8.1 billion for Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23). This diverse workforce includes employees at all levels from operational support staff to senior level management. Together, the labs take on incredibly complex and unique technical challenges in an attempt to address fundamental National and global needs. These technical challenges often require specialized training such that only a single person is truly capable of completing specific tasks. With the modern competitive environment, and an aging workforce, the risk of technical capability loss is highly probable with potentially severe impact. An online survey of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) employees, a typical DOE lab, found that of responders with greater than 10 years of experience, 100% of respondents felt burnt out, 40% felt they were not paid fairly, and 50% believe that not enough is done by leadership to retain them as an employee. Couple that to an aging workforce, and the risk of losing institutional knowledge due to single point of failure, or lynchpin, is significant. There is a need for a system which reduces the risk of operational and technical losses due to lynchpin employees leaving the organization. A mitigation of this risk would lead to the successful transfer of knowledge from one generation to the next, improving the rate of development and minimizing general risk of mistakes.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

U-Surf: a global 1 km spatially continuous urban surface property dataset for kilometer-scale urban-resolving Earth system modeling

High-resolution urban climate modeling has faced substantial challenges due to the absence of a globally consistent, spatially continuous, and accurate dataset to represent the spatial heterogeneity of urban surfaces and their biophysical properties. This deficiency has long obstructed the development of urban-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) and ultra-high-resolution urban climate modeling, over large domains. Here, we present U-Surf, a first-of-its-kind 1 km resolution present-day (circa 2020) global continuous urban surface parameter dataset. Using the urban canopy model (UCM) in the Community Earth System Model as a base model for satisfying dataset requirements, U-Surf leverages the latest advances in remote sensing, machine learning, and cloud computing to provide the most relevant urban surface biophysical parameters, including radiative, morphological, and thermal properties, for UCMs at the facet and canopy level. Generated using a systematically unified workflow, U-Surf ensures internal consistency among key parameters, making it the first globally coherent urban canopy surface dataset. U-Surf significantly improves the representation of the urban land heterogeneity both within and across cities globally; provides essential, high-fidelity surface biophysical constraints to urban-resolving ESMs; enables detailed city-to-city comparisons across the globe; and supports next-generation kilometer-resolution Earth system modeling across scales. U-Surf parameters can be easily converted or adapted to various types of UCMs, such as those embedded in weather and regional climate models, as well as air quality models. The fundamental urban surface constraints provided by U-Surf can also be used as features for machine learning models and can have other broad-scale applications for socioeconomic, public health, and urban planning contexts. We expect U-Surf to advance the research frontier of urban system science, climate-sensitive urban design, and coupled human–Earth systems in the future. The dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11247598 (Cheng et al., 2024).

Cheng, Yifan [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaig↗

Examination of actinide chemistry at solid-water interfaces to support advanced actinide separations (Final Report)

In this work we have examined the thermodynamics of actinide interactions with solid interfaces in the presence and absence of multi-functional complexing ligands. The term “interactions” is a global term to capture many potential reactions including aqueous complexation, sorption/surface complexation, surface-mediated redox reactions, electrostatic attraction and repulsion, surface passivation, surface precipitation, and counter-ion competition. Each of these potential reactions may control actinide interactions with a solid surface. This work is helping to develop a more fundamental understanding of actinide bonding at solid:water interfaces and examine unique surface mediated oxidation/reduction reactions which are not expected based on the reduction potentials of aqueous species. We place a large emphasis on understanding both sorption and desorption processes as a means of understanding the sorption mechanisms. This work is directly aligned with the DOE BES Heavy Element Chemistry programs interests in understanding “the chemical and physical properties of these elements to determine solution, interfacial and solid-state bonding and reactivity”.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Interactions between land use, fires, and dust as drivers of global climate change (Final Technical Report)

This award to UC Irvine and Cornell University led to the publication of 18 papers, three of which are highly cited. According to ISI Web of Science, the body of work from this grant has been cited over 476 times by May 2025. Several additional publications remain in review. This grant contributed to several significant science advances, including an improved understanding of the influence of fire aerosols on global photosynthesis (Xu et al., 2021), dust-driven teleconnections between Africa and South America (Li et al., 2021), the role of fire aerosols in triggering phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic (Ardyna et al., 2022), and wildfire responses to heat waves (Li et al., in review). Several other studies are being written up for publication, and will acknowledge funding support. These efforts include an analysis in which the magnitude of tropical fire emissions from land use change is constrained by comparing E3SMv3 simulations with atmospheric observations. This work has revealed that carbon cycle model estimates of land use change may considerably overestimate the global tropical deforestation flux. The project also contributed to several technical advances, including a new process-based and scale-aware desert dust emission scheme for global climate models (Leung et al., 2023), an improved representation of dust and its influence on radiation in E3SM (Feng et al., 2022), an improved representation of the dust parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (Li et al., 2022), and an improved coupling of wildfires with atmospheric chemistry in E3SM v3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Global Power System Transformation Consortium

The Global Power System Transformation (G-PST) Consortium, an expert- and practitioner-driven initiative, engages key power system operators, research and educational institutes, governments, businesses, and stakeholders in all regions of the world to accelerate clean energy transitions at the ambitious scope and scale that is required. The G-PST Consortium provides coordinated, holistic support and knowledge infusion for system operators pursuing clean energy transitions, including performing cutting-edge research; providing implementation support for world-class engineering and operational solutions; supporting workforce development; building and disseminating open-access data and tools; and accelerating localized technology adoption, standards development, and testing programs.

consortium↗

Advancing ocean monitoring and knowledge for societal benefit: the urgency to expand Argo to OneArgo by 2030

The ocean plays an essential role in regulating Earth’s climate, influencing weather conditions, providing sustenance for large populations, moderating anthropogenic climate change, encompassing massive biodiversity, and sustaining the global economy. Human activities are changing the oceans, stressing ocean health, threatening the critical services the ocean provides to society, with significant consequences for human well-being and safety, and economic prosperity. Effective and sustainable monitoring of the physical, biogeochemical state and ecosystem structure of the ocean, to enable climate adaptation, carbon management and sustainable marine resource management is urgently needed. The Argo program, a cornerstone of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), has revolutionized ocean observation by providing real-time, freely accessible global temperature and salinity data of the upper 2,000m of the ocean (Core Argo) using cost-effective simple robotics. For the past 25 years, Argo data have underpinned many ocean, climate and weather forecasting services, playing a fundamental role in safeguarding goods and lives. Argo data have enabled clearer assessments of ocean warming, sea level change and underlying driving processes, as well as scientific breakthroughs while supporting public awareness and education. Building on Argo’s success, OneArgo aims to greatly expand Argo’s capabilities by 2030, expanding to full-ocean depth, collecting biogeochemical parameters, and observing the rapidly changing polar regions. Providing a synergistic subsurface and global extension to several key space-based Earth Observation missions and GOOS components, OneArgo will enable biogeochemical and ecosystem forecasting and new long-term climate predictions for which the deep ocean is a key component. Driving forward a revolution in our understanding of marine ecosystems and the poorly-measured polar and deep oceans, OneArgo will be instrumental to assess sea level change, ocean carbon fluxes, acidification and deoxygenation. Emerging OneArgo applications include new views of ocean mixing, ocean bathymetry and sediment transport, and ecosystem resilience assessment. Implementing OneArgo requires about $100 million annually, a significant increase compared to present Argo funding. OneArgo is a strategic and cost-effective investment which will provide decision-makers, in both government and industry, with the critical knowledge needed to navigate the present and future environmental challenges, and safeguard both the ocean and human wellbeing for generations to come.

ARGO↗

Fusion Energy Sciences Network Requirements Review. Final Report, April - October 2021

The Energy Sciences Network (ESnet) is the high-performance network user facility for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science (SC) and delivers highly reliable data transport capabilities optimized for the requirements of data-intensive science. In essence, ESnet is the circulatory system that enables the DOE science mission by connecting all of its laboratories and facilities in the US and abroad. ESnet is funded and stewarded by the Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program and managed and operated by the Scientific Networking Division at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). ESnet is widely regarded as a global leader in the research and education networking community. Throughout 2021, ESnet and the Office of Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) of the DOE SC organized an ESnet requirements review of FES-supported activities. Preparation for these events included identification of key stakeholders: program and facility management, research groups, and technology providers. Each stakeholder group was asked to prepare formal case study documents about their relationship to the FES program to build a complete understanding of the current, near-term, and long-term status, expectations, and processes that will support the science going forward.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Envisioning U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections to Meet New Challenges

In the face of a changing climate, the understanding, predictions, and projections of natural and human systems are increasingly crucial to prepare and cope with extremes and cascading hazards, determine unexpected feedbacks and potential tipping points, inform long-term adaptation strategies, and guide mitigation approaches. Increasingly complex socio-economic systems require enhanced predictive information to support advanced practices. Such new predictive challenges drive the need to fully capitalize on ambitious scientific and technological opportunities. These include the unrealized potential for very high-resolution modeling of global-to-local Earth system processes across timescales, reduction of model biases, enhanced integration of human systems and the Earth Systems, better quantification of predictability and uncertainties; expedited science-to-service pathways, and co-production of actionable information with stakeholders. Enabling technological opportunities include exascale computing, advanced data storage, novel observations and powerful data analytics, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Looking to generate community discussions on how to accelerate progress on U.S. climate predictions and projections, representatives of Federally-funded U.S. modeling groups outline here perspectives on a six-pillar national approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the U.S. modeling community and agency goals. This calls for an unprecedented level of coordination to capitalize on transformative opportunities, augmenting and complementing current modeling center capabilities and plans to support agency missions. Tangible outcomes include projections with horizontal spatial resolutions finer than 10 km, representing extremes and associated risks in greater detail, reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more customized projections to support next generation climate services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗