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DOE OSTI2024

Constrained Turret Defense with Fixed Final Time

In this paper, we extend existing turret defense differential game formulations involving a turn-constrained turret and mobile agent to include specified final time and a constraint. For the purposes of this analysis, the specified final time may represent some exogenous input, perhaps representing the time at which some other event will take place. As for the constraint, it represents a no-fly zone for the mobile agent. The scenario is formulated as a two-player, zero-sum differential game and solved via the method of characteristics (i.e., back-propagation of equilibrium trajectories). Three different trajectory types make up the solution: trajectories that end with the turret aligned with the mobile agent, trajectories that end with the mobile agent on the constraint boundary, and regular trajectories.

differential game, game theory↗

DOE OSTI2021

Approximating Nash Equilibrium in Day-ahead Electricity Market Bidding with Multi-agent Deep Reinforcement Learning

In this paper, a day-ahead electricity market bidding problem with multiple strategic generation company (GEN-CO) bidders is studied. The problem is formulated as a Markov game model, where GENCO bidders interact with each other todevelop their optimal day-ahead bidding strategies. Considering unobservable information in the problem, a model-free and data-driven approach, known as multi-agent deep deterministic policy gradient (MADDPG), is applied for approximating the Nash equilibrium (NE) in the above Markov game. The MADDPG algorithm has the advantage of generalization due to the automatic feature extraction ability of the deep neural networks. The algorithm is tested on an IEEE 30-bus system with three competitive GENCO bidders in both an uncongested caseand a congested case. Comparisons with a truthful bidding strategy and state-of-the-art deep reinforcement learning methods including deep Q network and deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG) demonstrate that the applied MADDPG algorithm can find a superior bidding strategy for all the market participants with increased profit gains. In addition, the comparison with a conventional model-based method shows that the MADDPG algorithm has higher computational efficiency, which is feasible for real-world applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Analysis of Post Attack Impacts and Effects of Learning Parameters on Vulnerability Assessment of Power Grid

Due to the increasing number of heterogeneous devices connected to electric power grid, the attack surface increases the threat actors. Game theory and machine learning are being used to study the power system failures caused by external manipulation. Most of existing works in the literature focus on one-shot process of attacks and fail to show the dynamic evolution of the defense strategy. In this paper, we focus on an adversarial multistage sequential game between the adversaries of the smart electric power transmission and distribution system. We study the impact of exploration rate and convergence of the attack strategies (sequences of action that creates large scale blackout based on the system capacity) based on the reinforcement learning approach. We also illustrate how the learned attack actions disrupt the normal operation of the grid by creating transmission line outages, bus voltage violations, and generation loss. This simulation studies are conducted on IEEE 9 and 39 bus systems. The results show the improvement of the defense strategy through the learning process. The results also prove the feasibility of the learned attack actions by replicating the disturbances created in simulated power system.

attack impacts↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hypergames and Cyber-Physical Security for Control Systems

The identification of the Stuxnet worm in 2010 provided a highly publicized example of a cyber attack that physically damaged an industrial control system. This raised public awareness about the possibility of similar attacks against other industrial targets—including critical infrastructure. Here, we use hypergames to analyze how strategic perturbations of sensor readings and calibrated parameters can be used to manipulate a system that employs optimal control. Hypergames form an extension of game theory that enables us to model strategic interactions where the players may have significantly different perceptions of the game(s) they are playing. Past work with hypergames has focused on relatively simple interactions consisting of a small set of discrete choices for each player. Here, we apply single-stage hypergames to larger systems with continuous variables. We find that manipulating constraints can be a more effective attacker strategy than manipulating objective function parameters. Moreover, the attacker need not change the underlying system to carry out a successful attack—it may be sufficient to deceive the defender controlling the system. It is possible to scale our approach up to even larger systems, but this will depend on the characteristics of the system in question, and we identify several characteristics that will make those systems amenable to hypergame analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing Transportation Networks for E-Waste Reverse Logistics: A Multi-Modal Cost Allocation and Pricing Strategy

The exponential growth of electronic waste (e-waste) poses critical challenges for sustainable reverse logistics and transportation network optimization. This study develops a dual-channel transportation framework for e-waste logistics that integrates dynamic freight pricing, cost allocation mechanisms, and game-theoretic coordination. The model captures interactions between centralized hubs and distributed processing networks, accounting for freight rate elasticity, volume allocation, and capacity constraints. Using Stackelberg game theory and cost-sharing strategies, the framework optimizes transportation efficiency and profit distribution across logistics channels. Numerical simulations show that the dual-channel structure increases centralized hub profit by 226.8% compared to baseline single-channel operations, while boosting total transported volume by 1.2% and nearly doubling freight collector profit under cost-sharing. Scenario analyses across regional infrastructures reveal that network density, policy incentives, and logistics costs shape routing efficiency and profit allocation. These findings suggest that coordinated strategies combining dynamic pricing, targeted infrastructure investment, and strategic cost allocation are needed to design efficient, resilient, and regionally adaptable e-waste transportation systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integrating Mercury Concentrations in American Alligators ( Alligator mississippiensis ) with Hunter Consumption Surveys to Estimate Exposure Risk

Mercury is a naturally occurring element but is also considered a widespread contaminant due to global anthropogenic activity. Even in moderate amounts, mercury (Hg) is an established neurotoxin and is associated with a range of adverse outcomes both in humans and wildlife. Humans in the United States are most commonly exposed to Hg through contaminated food or drinking water, and the consumption of game species, particularly those occupying higher trophic levels, has the potential to expose hunters to high concentrations of Hg. In the present study, we determined Hg concentrations in tail muscle and blood from American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) inhabiting a region (Savannah River Site, SC, USA) with known Hg contamination. We then integrated these data with alligator harvest records and previously published surveys of alligator meat consumption patterns to estimate potential exposure risk. We found that the average Hg concentrations in tail muscle (1.34 mg/kg, wet wt) from sampled alligators exceeded the recommended threshold for Hg exposure based on the World Health Organization's guidelines (0.5mg/kg, wet wt). In addition, based on regional consumption patterns reported for both adults and children, we estimated Hg exposures (x¯ Adult = 0.419 μg/kg/day, x¯ Child = 2.24 μg/kg/day) occurring well above the US Environmental Protection Agency methylmercury reference dose of 0.1 μg/kg/day. Although the two reservoirs sampled in the present study are not currently open to alligator hunting, they are connected to waters that are publicly accessible, and the extent of alligator mobility across these sites is not known. Together, the findings reported in the present study further demonstrate the need for active monitoring of Hg concentrations in game species, which can convey substantial exposure risks to the public.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Call for Collaboration among Water Quality and Fisheries Professionals

Poor water quality is one of the greatest threats to fish population recovery, fisheries, and aquaculture. There are examples of game fish species and species of conservation concern threatened by poor water quality conditions across North America (Warren and Burr 1994; Couillard et al. 2008). In the Missouri River–Fort Peck Reservoir, low dissolved oxygen limits Pallid Sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus larvae survival (Guy et al. 2015). In the Pacific Northwest, increased temperatures reduce habitat for salmonids (Isaak and Rieman 2013). In the Northeast, acid deposition threatens populations of native Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis and endangered Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar (Parrish et al. 1998; Baldigo et al. 2007). The population of White Sturgeon Acipenser transmontanus in Brownlee Reservoir, Idaho, is one example of a species of conservation concern that has sufficient, otherwise suitable habitat, but has not recovered due to extended hypoxia resulting from agricultural runoff (Sullivan et al. 2003). Water quality can also be an issue for hatcheries and when introducing hatchery-raised fish into the wild. An estimated 200,000–300,000 fall Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha smolts were killed in an incident at a California hatchery because debris from a spillway failure caused oxygen levels to drop (Cahill 2017). Recently, the Idaho Department of Fish and Game in collaboration with National Marine Fisheries Service researchers discovered that low survival of endangered, hatchery-reared Sockeye Salmon O. nerka smolts was the result of differences in water hardness between the hatchery and the release site (Trushenski et al. 2019). In each of these situations, desired fisheries goals cannot be achieved without addressing underlying water quality issues. It is readily apparent that fish must have clean water to survive and that when water quality is severely degraded, fish populations typically suffer. However, in some cases, a waterbody can be considered to have impaired water quality, yet be highly productive from a fisheries standpoint (see Stockner et al. 2000 and Anders and Ashley 2007 for further discussion of this topic). To ensure that protective water quality is maintained while fisheries are effectively managed, we believe that better collaboration is needed between fisheries and water quality professionals. In this perspective column, we make a case that these two groups of professionals can be more effective by working together and sharing perspectives. Here, we highlight the benefits of such partnerships and describe specific opportunities for strengthening collaboration. Finally, we highlight the role that the American Fisheries Society can play by facilitating collaboration through professional meetings and training.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Techno-economic analysis of the impact of dynamic electricity prices on solar penetration in a smart grid environment with distributed energy storage

This study investigates the technical and economic feasibility of using high levels of solar energy penetration up to 400 MW into a smart grid system of 60,000 smart houses. A novel non-cooperative Stackelberg game is introduced that incorporates the profitability of the supply-side and helps in solving problems related to overgeneration and photovoltaic curtailment. The non-cooperative game is intended to find the optimal dynamic prices that would leverage distributed storage through the demand-side to stabilize the power grid operation. Ten cases are studied with five photovoltaic plant sizes and two battery designs. Here, a novel quantitative analysis of high levels of solar penetration as a percentage of the total electricity demand is introduced to evaluate the technical feasibility of the studied cases. To evaluate the economic viability of the proposed smart grid system, four metrics were used: the levelized cost of energy, the levelized cost of storage, the payback period, and the net present value. Two out of ten studied cases were concluded to be the most promising cases, one with a solar photovoltaic plant size of 200 MW and the other with 300 MW. The case with 300 MW solar plant is preferred as it paves the way for more solar energy deployment with a solar penetration percentage up to 67.78%. This case had a payback period of 10.72 years and a net present value of $\$51.44$ M for the solar plant and a payback period of 12.06 years and a net present value of $\$40.75$ M for the demand-side.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Economic analysis of precious metal recovery from electronic waste through gas-assisted microflow extraction

The recycling of end-of-life (EoL) electronic products is motivated by the enormous investment of resources in their creation and the environmental concerns associated with electronic waste (e-waste). Hydrometallurgical methods that utilize conventional leaching and solvent extraction are often applied to extract target materials from e-waste; however, these techniques have significant technical and economic limitations when extracting high-value, low concentration metals from complex waste streams. This study proposes and evaluates a novel process based on gas-assisted microflow extraction (GAME) that efficiently recovers precious metals from waste printed circuit boards (WPCBs). Further, an economic analysis is conducted to verify the economic feasibility of the GAME-based process at an industrial scale. The economic outputs are further investigated to identify the most cost-effective production strategies, particularly with respect to the plant feedstock rate. It is envisioned that this study may establish a paradigm for making economically-informed decisions for sustainable technologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reinforcement learning in discrete action space applied to inverse defect design

Abstract Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms that include Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) have found tremendous success in computer games such as Go, Shiga and Chess. Such learning algorithms have demonstrated super-human capabilities in navigating through an exhaustive discrete action search space. Motivated by their success in computer games, we demonstrate that RL can be applied to inverse materials design problems. We deploy RL for a representative case of the optimal atomic scale inverse design of extended defects via rearrangement of chalcogen (e.g. S) vacancies in 2D transition metal dichalcogenides (e.g. MoS 2 ). These defect rearrangements and their dynamics are important from the perspective of tunable phase transition in 2D materials i.e. 2H (semi-conducting) to 1T (metallic) in MoS 2 . We demonstrate the ability of MCTS interfaced with a reactive molecular dynamics simulator to efficiently sample the defect phase space and perform inverse design—starting from randomly distributed S vacancies, the optimal defect rearrangement of defects corresponds a line defect of S vacancies. We compare MCTS performance with evolutionary optimization i.e. genetic algorithms and show that MCTS converges to a better optimal solution (lower objective) and in fewer evaluations compared to GA. We also comprehensively evaluate and discuss the effect of MCTS hyperparameters on the convergence to solution. Overall, our study demonstrates the effectives of using RL approaches that operate in discrete action space for inverse defect design problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Q-Learning-Based Approach for Distributed Beam Scheduling in mmWave Networks

We consider the problem of distributed downlink beam scheduling and power allocation for millimeter-Wave (mmWave) cellular networks where multiple base stations (BSs) belonging to different service operators share the same unlicensed spectrum with no centralized control or explicit coordination among them. Our goal is to design efficient distributed beam scheduling and power allocation schemes such that the network-level payoff, defined as the weighted sum of the total throughput and a power penalization term, can be maximized. To this end, we propose a distributed scheduling approach to power allocation and adaptation for efficient interference management over the shared spectrum by modeling each BS as an independent Q-learning agent. As a baseline, we compare the proposed approach to the state-of-the-art non-cooperative game-based approach which was previously developed for the same problem. We conduct extensive experiments under various scenarios to verify the effect of multiple factors on the performance of both approaches. Experiment results show that the proposed approach adapts well to different interference conditions by learning from experience and thus can achieve higher payoff than the game-based approach. The proposed approach can also be integrated into our previously developed Lyapunov stochastic optimization framework for the purpose of network utility maximization with optimality guarantee. As a result, the weights in the payoff function can be automatically and optimally determined by the virtual queue values from the sub-problems derived from the Lyapunov optimization framework.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Proposed Application for an Entity Component System in an Energy Services Interface

An Entity Component System is a data-oriented architecture originally developed to streamline video game performance. Despite being quite new, Entity Component Systems are relatively well established within the video game industry due to the cutting edge nature of research into performance, especially around graphics. However, Entity Component Systems have not been widely examined or adopted outside of that industry. We propose adopting an Entity Component Systems framework to serve the needs of an Energy Service Interfaces. We examine the needs of an Energy Service Interface, give an overview of open-source Entity Component Systems (ECSs) libraries, examine some preliminary performance results for ECSs, and explore the traditional approach to fulfilling the needs of an Energy Service Interface (ESI) with database architectures.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improved Particle Swarm Algorithm Using Rubik’s Cube Topology for Bilevel Building Energy Transaction

Following the rapid growth of distributed energy resources (e.g., renewables, battery), localized peer-to-peer energy transactions are receiving more attention for multiple benefits, such as reducing power loss and stabilizing the main power grid. To promote distributed renewables locally, the local trading price is usually set to be within the external energy purchasing and selling price range. Consequently, building prosumers are motivated to trade energy through a local transaction center. This local energy transaction is modeled in bilevel optimization game. A selfish upper level agent is assumed with the privilege to set the internal energy transaction price with an objective of maximizing its arbitrage profit. Meanwhile, the building prosumers at the lower level will response to this transaction price and make decisions on electricity transaction amount. Therefore, this non-cooperative leader-follower trading game is seeking for equilibrium solutions on the energy transaction amount and prices. Additionally, a uniform local transaction price structure (purchase price equals selling price) is considered here. Aiming at reducing the computational burden from classical Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) transformation and protecting the private information of each stakeholder (e.g., building), swarm intelligence-based solution approach is employed for upper level agent to generate trading price and coordinate the transactive operations. On one hand, to decrease the chance of premature convergence in global-best topology, Rubik’s Cube topology is proposed in this study based on further improvement of a two-dimensional square lattice model (i.e., one local-best topology-Von Neumann topology). Rotating operation of the cube is introduced to dynamically changing the neighborhood and enhancing information flow at the later searching state. Several groups of experiments are designed to evaluate the performance of proposed Rubik’s Cube topology-based particle swarm algorithm. The results have validated the effectiveness of proposed topology and operators comparing with global-best version PSO and Von Neumann topology-based PSO and its scalability on larger scale applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Use of a controlled experiment and computational models to measure the impact of sequential peer exposures on decision making

It is widely believed that one’s peers influence product adoption behaviors. This relationship has been linked to the number of signals a decision-maker receives in a social network. But it is unclear if these same principles hold when the “pattern” by which it receives these signals vary and when peer influence is directed towards choices which are not optimal. To investigate that, we manipulate social signal exposure in an online controlled experiment using a game with human participants. Each participant in the game decides among choices with differing utilities. We observe the following: (1) even in the presence of monetary risks and previously acquired knowledge of the choices, decision-makers tend to deviate from the obvious optimal decision when their peers make a similar decision which we call the influence decision, (2) when the quantity of social signals vary over time, the forwarding probability of the influence decision and therefore being responsive to social influence does not necessarily correlate proportionally to the absolute quantity of signals. To better understand how these rules of peer influence could be used in modeling applications of real world diffusion and in networked environments, we use our behavioral findings to simulate spreading dynamics in real world case studies. We specifically try to see how cumulative influence plays out in the presence of user uncertainty and measure its outcome on rumor diffusion, which we model as an example of sub-optimal choice diffusion. Together, our simulation results indicate that sequential peer effects from the influence decision overcomes individual uncertainty to guide faster rumor diffusion over time. However, when the rate of diffusion is slow in the beginning, user uncertainty can have a substantial role compared to peer influence in deciding the adoption trajectory of a piece of questionable information.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing springtime vertebrate prey of sympatric mesopredators in the southeastern United States using metabarcoding analysis

Coyotes (Canis latrans) colonized the eastern United States over the last century and formed a 3-species predator guild with bobcats (Lynx rufus) and gray foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) across much of the southeastern United States. Diets among the three species vary along with respective impacts on game species such as white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo). To determine predation impacts on vertebrate prey and dietary overlap in consumption of prey items, we assessed diets of coyote, bobcat, and gray fox during spring, coinciding with white-tailed deer fawning and wild turkey nesting and brood rearing. We sampled across three sites along the Savannah River in South Carolina from mid-May through mid-June of 2020–2021. We collected 180 scat samples along 295.9 kilometers (71.1–122.4 km/site) of unpaved secondary roads and used DNA metabarcoding to determine vertebrate diet items. We identified predator species of scat using DNA metabarcoding and species-specific mtDNA fragment analysis (153 were coyote, 20 bobcat, and seven gray fox). Overall, we found evidence that two species, coyote and bobcat, consumed deer while all three consumed turkeys. Frequency of deer in the diet varied across sites for coyotes from 62–86% and wild turkey was present with a frequency of occurrence of 9% for coyotes, 5% for bobcats, and 14% for gray fox. Vertebrate diet specialization was evident across predator species with high frequency of deer in coyote diets, rabbits and small mammals in bobcat diets, and herpetofauna in gray fox diets. During deer fawning and wild turkey nesting and brood rearing, dietary overlap appears to be mediated by disparate selection of prey items, which reduced competition among coyotes, bobcats, and gray foxes. Use of DNA metabarcoding may augment our understanding of dietary preferences within this predator guild by providing increased resolution of diet composition among important game species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Snow Camera Photos at the Teller 27 Field Site from 2022-2023, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Snow distribution in the Arctic is highly variable and driven by high winds and microtopography, which result in deep snow drifts and shallow scoured areas. To better understand snow drifting and scouring, 4 Reconyx HyperFire 2 game cameras were installed at the Teller 27 Watershed Field Site on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska from September 2022 to September 2023. Game cameras were installed at 4 locations across the watershed to capture pictures of snow in drift and scour areas. Three-meter tall, red PVC poles were used as snow-stakes to measure snow depth from these pictures. One photo was taken at each camera once per hour during daylight. Distances between cameras and snow stakes were measured so that snow depth can later be calculated from the pictures. This dataset contains four folders of *.jpg files from each camera and one *.kml file of camera locations.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Site-wide occupancy assessment using camera traps for seven mammalian species at Los Alamos National Laboratory

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or Laboratory) is committed to solving national security challenges through scientific excellence and has been serving the nation and northern New Mexico for over 70 years. Being located on the Pajarito Plateau in the eastern flanks of the Jemez Mountains, the Laboratory is surrounded by a rich diversity of plants and animals. It is common to see many different species of wildlife on Laboratory property; however, sometimes interactions with wildlife can be negative. Vehicle accidents with wildlife have become a common occurrence. With the current and ongoing expansion of the Laboratory on the Pajarito Plateau, it has the potential to further impact wildlife movement including large game species. Local agencies and tribal Pueblos rely on large game species and do not want these species to be restricted from moving across property boundaries. Temporal and spatial aspects of where wildlife occur on the site is a phenomena that is either not well understood in uncommon species or needs periodic reevaluation for common species. Estimating the distribution of multiple species across the landscape provides wildlife biologists with crucial information for monitoring and conserving animal populations in a particular area. Utilizing motion activated wildlife cameras, also known as camera traps, to monitor wildlife populations has become an essential tool for biologists. Camera traps are non-invasive and cost-effective and can document multiple elusive or uncommon wildlife species, such as carnivores, simultaneously. Occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework for the analysis of the distribution for multiple wildlife species. It explicitly recognizes whether a species is spatially common or rare (occupancy = ψ) and if that species is easy or hard to detect (detection probability = p ). Multispecies and multi-season occupancy models can detect trends in species occupancy because individual species may vary in seasonal movements, detection probability, and transition rates between habitats. In this study, we assessed the site as a whole to ascertain when and where medium and large mammal species are present. Understanding wildlife patterns at the Laboratory will better inform future management decisions regarding land use and development strategies. We placed motion activated wildlife cameras in a random systematic sampling design and used these data to create occupancy models. We tested for differences in single-species occupancy and detection probability by season of mammal species captured on 20 camera traps placed across the Laboratory in a 40 mi² (103 km²) area. We focus the interpretation of our findings on seven mammal species found during this study. They are Rocky Mountain elk ( Cervus canadensis nelsoni ; hereafter “elk”), mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ; hereafter “deer”), mountain lion ( Puma concolor ; hereafter “lion”), American black bear ( Ursus americanus ; hereafter “bear”), coyote ( Canis latrans ), bobcat ( Lynx rufus ), and gray fox ( Urocyon cinereoargenteus ; hereafter “fox”).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Defender Policy Evaluation and Resource Allocation against MITRE ATT&CK Data and Evaluations

Protecting against multi-step attacks of uncertain duration and timing forces defenders into an indefinite, always ongoing, resource-intensive response. To effectively allocate resources, a defender must be able to analyze multi-step attacks under assumption of constantly allocating resources against an uncertain stream of potentially undetected attacks. To achieve this goal, we present a novel methodology that applies a game-theoretic approach to the attack, attacker, and defender data derived from MITRE´s ATT&CK ® Framework. Time to complete attack steps is drawn from a probability distribution determined by attacker and defender strategies and capabilities. This constraints attack success parameters and enables comparing different defender resource allocation strategies. By approximating attacker-defender games as Markov processes, we represent the attacker-defender interaction, estimate the attack success parameters, determine the effects of attacker and defender strategies, and maximize opportunities for defender strategy improvements against an uncertain stream of attacks. This novel representation and analysis of multi-step attacks enables defender policy optimization and resource allocation, which we illustrate using the data from MITRE´ s APT3 ATT&CK ® Framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗