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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

The weighted priors approach for combining expert opinions in logistic regression experiments

When modeling the reliability of a system or component, it is not uncommon for more than one expert to provide very different prior estimates of the expected reliability as a function of an explanatory variable such as age or temperature. Our goal in this paper is to incorporate all information from the experts when choosing a design about which units to test. Bayesian design of experiments has been shown to be very successful for generalized linear models, including logistic regression models. We use this approach to develop methodology for the case where there are several potentially non-overlapping priors under consideration. While multiple priors have been used for analysis in the past, they have never been used in a design context. The Weighted Priors method performs well for a broad range of true underlying model parameter choices and is more robust when compared to other reasonable design choices. Finally, we illustrate the method through multiple scenarios and a motivating example. Additional figures for this article are available in the online supplementary information.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generalized Bayesian MARS: Tools for Stochastic Computer Model Emulation

The multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) approach of Friedman and its Bayesian counterpart are effective approaches for the emulation of computer models. The traditional assumption of Gaussian errors limits the usefulness of MARS, and many popular alternatives, when dealing with stochastic computer models. Here, we propose a generalized Bayesian MARS (GBMARS) framework which admits the broad class of generalized hyperbolic distributions as the induced likelihood function. This allows us to develop tools for the emulation of stochastic simulators which are parsimonious, scalable, and interpretable and require minimal tuning, while providing powerful predictive and uncertainty quantification capabilities. GBMARS is capable of robust regression with t distributions, quantile regression with asymmetric Laplace distributions, and a general form of “Normal-Wald” regression in which the shape of the error distribution and the structure of the mean function are learned simultaneously. We demonstrate the effectiveness of GBMARS on various stochastic computer models, and we show that it compares favorably to several popular alternatives.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1986

Progression-regression effects in tracking repeated patterns

Subjects used a position control system to perform compensatory tracking of a repeated input pattern. The input pattern was 20 seconds in duration and was either an arctangent function or the sum of two sine waves. Tracking error decreased with practice and increased with the addition of a concurrent memory task. The shape of the ensemble-average tracking error resembled the shape of the input velocity signal throughout these changes in performance. Regression analyses were used to parameterize these effects and compare these results with the predictions of several conceptualizations of perceptual-motor learning.

Jagacinski, R. J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deconvoluting thermomechanical effects in X-ray diffraction data using machine learning

X-ray diffraction is ideal for probing the sub-surface state during complex or rapid thermomechanical loading of crystalline materials. However, challenges arise as the size of diffraction volumes increases due to spatial broadening and because of the inability to deconvolute the effects of different lattice deformation mechanisms. Here, we present a novel approach that uses combinations of physics-based modeling and machine learning to deconvolve thermal and mechanical elastic strains for diffraction data analysis. The method builds on a previous effort to extract thermal strain distribution information from diffraction data. The new approach is applied to extract the evolution of the thermomechanical state during laser melting of an Inconel 625 wall specimen which produces significant residual stress upon cooling. A combination of heat transfer and fluid flow, elasto-plasticity and X-ray diffraction simulations is used to generate training data for machine-learning (Gaussian process regression, GPR) models that map diffracted intensity distributions to underlying thermomechanical strain fields. First-principles density functional theory is used to determine accurate temperature-dependent thermal expansion and elastic stiffness used for elasto-plasticity modeling. The trained GPR models are found to be capable of deconvoluting the effects of thermal and mechanical strains, in addition to providing information about underlying strain distributions, even from complex diffraction patterns with irregularly shaped peaks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reinforcement Learning via Gaussian Processes with Neural Network Dual Kernels

While deep neural networks (DNNs) and Gaussian Processes (GPs) are both popularly utilized to solve problems in reinforcement learning, both approaches feature undesirable drawbacks for challenging problems. DNNs learn complex non-linear embeddings, but do not naturally quantify uncertainty and are often data-inefficient to train. GPs infer posterior distributions over functions, but popular kernels exhibit limited expressivity on complex and high-dimensional data. Fortunately, recently discovered conjugate and neural tangent kernel functions encode the behavior of overparameterized neural networks in the kernel domain. We demonstrate that these kernels can be efficiently applied to regression and reinforcement learning problems by analyzing a baseline case study.We apply GPs with neural network dual kernels to solve reinforcement learning tasks for the first time. We demonstrate, using the well understood mountain-car problem, that GPs empowered with dual kernels perform at least as well as those using the conventional radial basis function kernel. Finally, we conjecture that by inheriting the probabilistic rigor of GPs and the powerful embedding properties of DNNs, GPs using NN dual kernels will empower future reinforcement learning models on difficult domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2009

Regression Model Optimization for the Analysis of Experimental Data

A candidate math model search algorithm was developed at Ames Research Center that determines a recommended math model for the multivariate regression analysis of experimental data. The search algorithm is applicable to classical regression analysis problems as well as wind tunnel strain gage balance calibration analysis applications. The algorithm compares the predictive capability of different regression models using the standard deviation of the PRESS residuals of the responses as a search metric. This search metric is minimized during the search. Singular value decomposition is used during the search to reject math models that lead to a singular solution of the regression analysis problem. Two threshold dependent constraints are also applied. The first constraint rejects math models with insignificant terms. The second constraint rejects math models with near-linear dependencies between terms. The math term hierarchy rule may also be applied as an optional constraint during or after the candidate math model search. The final term selection of the recommended math model depends on the regressor and response values of the data set, the user s function class combination choice, the user s constraint selections, and the result of the search metric minimization. A frequently used regression analysis example from the literature is used to illustrate the application of the search algorithm to experimental data.

Ulbrich, N.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multivariate Regression of Pyrotechnic Igniter Output

Multivariate multiple regression models are applied to simplified pyrotechnic igniters for the first time to understand how changes in manufactured parameters can affect the output gas dynamic response and the timing of ignition events. The statistical modeling technique is applied to demonstrate quantification of the effects of a set of independent variables measured in the as-fabricated igniters on a set of responses experimentally measured from the functioned igniters. Two independent process variables were intentionally varied following a full factorial experimental design while several other independent variables varied within their normal manufacturing variability range. The four igniter performance responses consisted of the timing of sequential events during igniter function and visual gas dynamic output in the form of shock wave strength observed with high-speed schlieren imaging. Linear regression models built using the measurements throughout the manufacturing processes and the output variance provide insight into the critical device parameters that dominate performance

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2019

Diagnosis of Corrosion Process in Nuclear Power Plant Secondary Piping Structures

Corrosion inside secondary pipe structures in Nuclear Power Plants is difficult to detect without intrusion. Statistical and machine learning techniques are used to predict corrosion using pipe vibration data. 3D accelerometers were used to record pipe vibration data in three directions using six sensors. Vibration data were processed using the Hilbert-Huang Transformation, which is known for its adaptable basis function to non-linear and non-stationary signals. Hilbert-Huang Transformation using empirical mode functions generates multiple intrinsic mode functions of different amplitude and frequency levels from raw vibration data. From intrinsic mode functions features are extracted which include phase, energy, entropy, mean, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis. Logistic regression using only phase information correctly distinguished mass additions from baseline data in roughly 83% and 85% of the cases. Phase information varied substantially among different baseline runs and within trials of the same run. Random Forest resulted in >95% testing accuracy for both mass addition and mass removal data. Support Vector Machine had ~98% testing accuracy for mass removal and ~92% testing accuracy for mass additions when using Permutation Importance feature selection. When using Principle Component Analysis with Support Vector Machine, testing accuracy was ~68% testing accuracy for mass additions and ~85% testing accuracy for mass.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Quantification for Smooth Functional Data with Application to Material Properties

This document outlines a method for processing functional output (i.e., curves) for the ultimate purpose of sampling curves under specified input conditions for use in modeling and simulation uncertainty quantification (UQ) studies. A set of benchmark curves sufficiently representative of the relevant scenario(s) being simulated are provided to the process and formatted as described in Section 1. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is utilized to discover the components of uncertainty in the benchmark curves and is outlined in Section 2. Section 3 describes the application of uncertainty quantification to the PCA results for the purpose of sampling curves to be used in UQ analysis. Section 4 applies these techniques to an example benchmark dataset. Concluding remarks are provided in the final section.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1984

Statistical structure of convective periods derived from satellite ground based data

The documentation of characteristics of Vertical Atmospheric Soundings (VAS) through the use of statistical structure and correlation functions is presented. A measure of random error is also provided. Rawinsonde data from various periods is analyzed. Structure and correlation functions are used to compare VAS retrievals obtained using a physical algorithm with those from a regression technique. Results from both procedures are evaluated against those from a mesoscale network of rawinsonde stations. The parameters documented include temperature, mixing ratio, geopotential height, thickness, and precipitable water. Calculation are performed at several layers in the lower and upper troposphere.

Meyer, P. J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Optimal design application on the advanced aeroelastic rotor blade

The vibration and performance optimization procedure using regression analysis was successfully applied to an advanced aeroelastic blade design study. The major advantage of this regression technique is that multiple optimizations can be performed to evaluate the effects of various objective functions and constraint functions. The data bases obtained from the rotorcraft flight simulation program C81 and Myklestad mode shape program are analytically determined as a function of each design variable. This approach has been verified for various blade radial ballast weight locations and blade planforms. This method can also be utilized to ascertain the effect of a particular cost function which is composed of several objective functions with different weighting factors for various mission requirements without any additional effort.

Wei, F. S.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Ozone trends deduced from combined Nimbus 7 SBUV and NOAA 11 SBUV/2 data

The long-term time series of global ozone from the Nimbus-7 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet instrument (SBUV) (Nov. 1978-June 1990) are extended through June 1994 by using measurements from the NOAA-11 SBUV/2. The data sets are merged based upon comparisons during the 18-month overlap period in which both instruments were operational. During this period, the average offset between the two time series is less than 2% in total ozone, and less than 6% in Umkehr layers 1-10. A linear-regression trend model is applied to the extended time series to calculate updated trends as a function of latitude and altitude. Trends through June 1994 are 1.5-2% per decade less negative than through June 1990 in the tropical middle stratosphere (35-40 km) and in the upper stratosphere (45-50 km) at mid-latitudes. In the lower stratosphere, the trends are nearly 1.5% per decade more negative in the southern hemisphere tropical regions to 25 deg S, but remain relatively unchanged elsewhere. The seasonal structure of the total ozone trends is similar to past trend study results, but the magnitude of the seasonal trend can vary by 2% per decade depending on the length of the time series. Both Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) (through April 1993) and SBUV total ozone time series show small negative trends in the equatorial region, though they are not statistically at the 2-sigma level.

Hollandsworth, S. M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gaussian processes for inferring parton distributions

The extraction of parton distribution functions (PDFs) from experimental or lattice QCD data is an ill-posed inverse problem, where regularization strongly impacts both systematic uncertainties and the reliability of the results. We study a framework based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to reconstruct PDFs from lattice QCD matrix elements. Within a Bayesian framework, Gaussian processes serve as flexible priors that encode uncertainties, correlations, and constraints without imposing rigid functional forms. We investigate a wide range of kernel choices, mean functions, and hyperparameter treatments. We quantify information gained from the data using the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Synthetic data tests demonstrate the consistency and robustness of the method. Our study establishes GPR as a systematic and non-parametric approach to PDF reconstruction, offering controlled uncertainty estimates and reduced model bias in lattice QCD analyses.

hadronic spectroscopy↗
NASA NTRS1976

Meteorological adjustment of yearly mean values for air pollutant concentration comparison

Using multiple linear regression analysis, models which estimate mean concentrations of Total Suspended Particulate (TSP), sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide as a function of several meteorologic variables, two rough economic indicators, and a simple trend in time are studied. Meteorologic data were obtained and do not include inversion heights. The goodness of fit of the estimated models is partially reflected by the squared coefficient of multiple correlation which indicates that, at the various sampling stations, the models accounted for about 23 to 47 percent of the total variance of the observed TSP concentrations. If the resulting model equations are used in place of simple overall means of the observed concentrations, there is about a 20 percent improvement in either: (1) predicting mean concentrations for specified meteorological conditions; or (2) adjusting successive yearly averages to allow for comparisons devoid of meteorological effects. An application to source identification is presented using regression coefficients of wind velocity predictor variables.

Sidik, S. M.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Physics-Informed Machine Learning with Application to Solid Oxide Fuel Cell System Modeling and Optimization

Traditional data-driven machine learning (ML) techniques were combined with the physics-based SOFC-MP model toward improving SOFC system-level performance prediction. Four different physics-informed ML methods were proposed to demonstrate better prediction accuracy compared with traditional ML methods. First, it was preferred that the existing Kriging-based surrogate model not be entirely abandoned, so errors between Kriging regression prediction and true solution are learned using ML. The goal was to find the pattern of the error distribution as a function of model input so discrepancies between the Kriging prediction and true solution could be reduced by adding the additional ML-trained error term to the existing prediction. Second, deep neural networks (DNN) coupled with the mass balance model (MBM) have been developed to significantly decrease the reduced order model (ROM) prediction error with fewer training data compared to the traditional Kriging-based ROM and traditional DNN regression approaches. Third, DNN regression coupled with a neural networks (NN) classifier and MBM was developed. It provides superior performance on classifying the physically operational conditions for natural gas fuel cell (NGFC) than traditional classification approaches. Finally, two kinds of DNN transferring were studied and tested. One was transferring DNN for low-fidelity model data to a high-fidelity model. The second one was transferring DNN from state-of-the-art NGFC to advanced NGFC. These physic-informed ML frameworks can serve as a solid foundation for estimating U.S. Department of Energy-targeted fuel cell performance and exhibit great potential to be employed to other engineering applications.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gaussian processes for autonomous data acquisition at large-scale synchrotron and neutron facilities

The execution and analysis of complex experiments are challenged by the vast dimensionality of the underlying parameter spaces. Although an increase in data-acquisition rates should allow broader querying of the parameter space, the complexity of experiments and the subtle dependence of the model function on input parameters remains daunting owing to the sheer number of variables. New strategies for autonomous data acquisition are being developed, with one promising direction being the use of Gaussian process regression (GPR). GPR is a quick, non-parametric and robust approximation and uncertainty quantification method that can be applied directly to autonomous data acquisition. We review GPR-driven autonomous experimentation and illustrate its functionality using real-world examples from large experimental facilities in the USA and France. We introduce the basics of a GPR-driven autonomous loop with a focus on Gaussian processes, and then shift the focus to the infrastructure that needs to be built around GPR to create a closed loop. Finally, the case studies we discuss show that Gaussian-process-based autonomous data acquisition is a widely applicable method that can facilitate the optimal use of instruments and facilities by enabling the efficient acquisition of high-value datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗