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At least 451 records · Page 25

Samoa Updater: An Application of the Levenberg-Marquardt Method to Update DELFIC Predictions Using Field Measurements

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Forensics Operations (DFO) is a member of the Ground Collections Task Force (GCTF), which is responsible for sample collection of radiological debris for attribution should a nuclear detonation ever occur in the United States. The DFO runs the Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC) Fallout Planning Tool to predict the deposition of fallout from a nuclear detonation. This prediction is refined using the DELFIC Updater tool, which takes ground measurements and adjusts DELFIC inputs to minimize the difference between prediction and observation, yielding improved predictions of fallout in locations both measured and not yet measured. Samoa, a framework for uncertainty analysis and optimization, is used to improve DELFIC predictive fallout modeling. This new capability using Samoa, dubbed “Samoa Updater,” is compared with the current DELFIC Updater, a brute-force sampling approach. Samoa Updater uses the Levenberg– Marquardt (LM) method, a gradient-based nonlinear least squares approach that uses the functional shape of the input space to increase optimization speed. In simulated test cases Samoa Updater yields faster and more accurate solutions than the current Updater.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Report on branching ratios for 111 Ag

Our understanding on the distribution of fragment masses following fission, or fission yields is largely impacted by the quality of nuclear data. One of the most straightforward and reliable ways to determine the number of fissions that occurred in a chain reaction is done via detection of the characteristic γ-rays emitted during the β decay of the fission product. These γ rays are emitted in only a fraction of the decays, and this fraction (the γ-ray intensities) must be known accurately to determine the total number of fissions. Many long-lived fission products, such as 111 Ag, play an important role in science-based stockpile stewardship and nuclear forensics. The γ-ray intensities from the decay of 111 Ag are known to only 5%, leading to a 5% uncertainty in fission-chain yield. This work aims to improve the precision of these γ-ray intensities for the most intense emissions following the decay of 111 Ag, as seen in Figure 1.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Improving Fission Products at CARIBU (NA-22 Final Report)

Detailed knowledge of fission-product (FP) decay properties is needed for a variety of applications of nuclear science such as nuclear-energy production, nuclear-nonproliferation efforts, nuclear-forensics assessments, and stockpile stewardship, as well as for establishing a comprehensive understanding of the fission process, r-process nucleo-synthesis, and fundamental neutrino science. Although nearly a thousand radioactive isotopes are produced in fission, in many cases key pieces of nuclear data on only a handful of isotopes are needed to make a significant impact.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Statistically-driven Experimental Design to Improve Reference-free Quantification of Small Molecules by Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry

Non-targeted analysis of small molecules and metabolites in unknown, complex samples using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry remains challenging. One of the main bottlenecks is the extensive unannotated regions of metabolomics mass spectrometry data, resulting in knowledge gaps. Small molecule annotation in mass spectrometry data has conventionally relied on reference standards and libraries for compound identification and confirmation, which can constrain compound identification to those molecules already known, thus limiting the ability to discover new knowledge and new markers. Retention time prediction can facilitate and expedite unknown compound identification in non-targeted analysis of complex metabolomics samples. Additionally, accurate retention time predictions can also inform sample mixture design for LC-MS/MS analyses. However, current machine learning-based methods for retention time prediction are typically developed for specific chromatographic platforms and are not generalizable across scales. And while technologies and methods to improve reference-free metabolite identification for more comprehensive annotation of unknowns has received much attention, development of the same for quantitation without reference standards has been much more limited, despite its importance in toxicological, environmental, food safety, forensics, and clinical applications. We believe that a reference-free quantitation strategy that exploits mass spectrometry data already collected for reference-free identification can provide much more insight on unknowns, and move the metabolomics field for more complete unknowns characterization. As such, we pursue two efforts to improve upon current state-of-the-art methods in non-targeted analysis: (1) machine learning-based retention time prediction and (2) statistical design of experiments framework for reference-free quantitation. In this work, we develop and demonstrate (1) a generalizable retention time prediction capability across chromatographic conditions and scales, and (2) a statistical design-based framework for response factor contribution elucidation and reference-free quantitation. Evaluation of our retention time prediction model, PrediToR, showed approximately 24% improvement over current models, and we observed approximately 10X improvement in concentration estimation accuracy from our statistical design-based response factor model over a primarily ionization efficiency-based model. We expect that future efforts to improve upon these new capabilities will further advance non-targeted analysis of small molecules towards truly reference-free metabolomics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Molecular Vision - Multimodal, multitask retrieval of molecular structure from measured signatures for reference-free compound identification

We are currently at risk of generating false conclusions based on limited methods to identify small molecules in biological systems and in chemical forensics. By definition, the chemical structures of novel small molecules have not been determined, let alone measured or synthesized. Currently, unambiguous structure determination of small molecules is constrained by the time and effort needed to isolate compounds and perform de novo structure elucidation using laboratory-based methods, significantly extending the time to inform mitigation strategies. To address this gap, we have developed a deep learning approach to directly map molecular structure to experimental signatures. We aim to unify measurement technologies employed in untargeted small molecule identification studies—such as infrared (IR) spectrometry, tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS), ion mobility spectrometry-derived collision cross section (CCS)—through use of a multimodal, multitask deep learning architecture. Where existing methods require direct generation of information-rich spectra and/or properties, an inherently difficult task, we will simplify molecular signature-based identification by posing the problem as a recognition or retrieval task. The model is thus presented with relevant endpoints – structure and one or more molecular signatures – and need only determine whether they are semantically related. Thus, our approach offers the following advantages over existing techniques: (i) circumvents difficulties associated with direct generation of molecular signatures from structure and structure from signatures; (ii) incorporates multiple molecular signatures simultaneously, as available, to support identification; and (iii) enables rapid computation of structural embeddings toward broad coverage of known chemical space. Taken together, the approach removes the need to explicitly obtain or compute reference spectra, representing a powerful method for compound identification that requires only experimentally observed signatures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Fuel Performance Calculations of Tagged UO 2 MiniFuel Disks

Isotopic taggants are being considered as a novel form of forensic identifiers for nuclear fuels. As part of this effort, eighteen tagged MiniFuel disks were irradiated in the High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In this work, the BISON fuel performance code was used to recreate the pellets and predict their behavior and their post-irradiation material properties. These predictions are to serve as a baseline to help investigators identify results of interest during post-irradiation examination of actual MiniFuel disks. The simulation methodology and models are described herein, along with the individual disk predictions. Several general trends were identified in this analysis. Based on the models, it is predicted that the pellets’ internal temperatures will rise over time, fission gas release will remain constant at around 1%, regardless of the burnup, and no grain growth will occur in any of the disks. The reasons for these predictions are discussed below. Probable shortcomings in the BISON predictions are addressed, and future work is proposed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

MSTL Re-Start Phase 1.5 Project Final Report

This document provides an overview of re-start efforts at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF), for the SNL Molten Salt Test Loop (MSTL). MSTL is one of the world’s only industrial-scale molten salt test systems, capable of testing commercial-scale thermal hydraulic equipment at an industrial scale, required for confident bankability of products. This work was facilitated as part of the Phase 1 re-start effort for facilitating forensics assessments to inform final refurbishments and upgrades costs and schedule information for revitalizing MSTL for use during a separate Phase 2 effort. This work was facilitated to further de-risk a Phase 2 effort pertaining to the tank and the pump, which were considered during Phase 1 to be high-risk items for a successful re-start. Impact from a successful re-start will allow SNL and other industrial molten salt systems companies, such as those in the Market Utilization Report provided in the Phase 1 submission package. An objective of this document is to also ensure longevity of utilization of MSTL after re start.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Bayesian Statistical Analysis for Mass Spectrometric Data Processing

• Thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) is a “gold standard’ technique for actinide isotope amount ratio and assay measurements. • Ubiquitously used in: • Nuclear Nonproliferation • Nuclear Safeguards • Nuclear Forensics • Basic Science • Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) installed a new Thermo Scientific TRITON Plus TIMS in early 2024.

McLarty, Ellis C. [Savannah River National Laborat↗

MCNP® Code Version 6.3.1 Release Notes

The Monte Carlo N-Particle® (MCNP® ) code is a general-purpose, continuous-energy, generalized-geometry, time-dependent, radiation transport code developed by the MCNP development team. MCNP calculations provide predictive capabilities that can replace expensive or impossible-to-perform experiments. Specific application problems include simulations of experimental diagnostics, intrinsic radiation, radiation detection and measurement, criticality safety, nuclear threat reduction and response, radiation health protection, nuclear weapons effects, and nuclear forensics. This MCNP code, version 6.3.1, follows the MCNP6.3.0 version. Since the release of MCNP6.3.0, a variety of bug fixes and code enhancements have been completed for MCNP6.3.1. A few new features have also been added to this release to support both ongoing research and the release of the latest ENDF/B-VIII.1 nuclear data library. The MCNP code, version 6.3.1, theory and user input information is documented in MCNP® Code Version 6.3.1 Theory & User Manual, the build guidance for various platforms is documented in MCNP® Code Version 6.3.1 Build Guide, and the verification and validation testing for various application benchmark test suites is documented in MCNP® Code Version 6.3.1 Verification & Validation Testing.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Tabletop soft x-ray absorption spectroscopy for molecular fingerprinting

For applications related to nuclear security, safeguards, and nonproliferation, it is often critical to know the molecular compositions of lanthanide- and actinide-containing samples. Spectroscopy is a widely used tool that looks at the interaction between light and matter: Different species absorb or emit light at unique wavelengths which act as signatures. However, there is a limited number of tools that can achieve high-sensitivity, accurate measurements of lanthanide and actinide molecular compositions. Candidate methods include mass spectrometry, which usually destroys at least part of the sample and requires complicated stoichiometry to guess the original sample’s molecular compositions; optical spectroscopies, which have great atomic but limited molecular sensitivities or other drawbacks which make sensing molecules difficult like limited light sources or strong absorption in the atmosphere; and nuclear spectroscopies (gamma, neutron) which also have limited sources and long (>minute) collection times. As such, the purpose of our research is to develop a new tool to better distinguish between subtle differences in molecules containing lanthanides and actinides. Soft x-ray spectroscopy is sensitive to molecular form and is minimally intrusive/nondestructive to the sample. However, soft x-ray light with sufficient brightness for spectroscopy is typically limited to user-facilities like synchrotrons or free electron lasers, where beamtimes are competitive, and work with radiological materials may be difficult or entirely prohibited. To overcome this issue, our Team has developed a custom tabletop laser-driven, soft x-ray light source which employs high harmonic generation (HHG). Soft x-ray spectroscopy can distinguish between subtly different molecules, in the spectral range which we need to study these heavy elements. A tabletop system provides an effective and affordable tool to find both the elemental and chemical specificity of lanthanide and samples. Creating a light source in the soft x-ray spectrum is difficult because these wavelengths in the range 5-20 nm (20-350 eV photon energies) only penetrate several 100s of nm in most solid materials and only reflect well in shallow, grazing incident angles. The results are applicable to nuclear forensics, because molecular fingerprinting of lanthanide and actinide samples can be used to back out the origin and processing method of nuclear materials (Skrodzki, et al.).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

U.S. Efforts in Support of Examinations at Fukushima Daiichi - September 2024 Meeting Notes

Information obtained from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (Daiichi) is required to inform future Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) activities, improving the ability of the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Incorporated (TEPCO Holdings) to characterize potential hazards and to ensure the safety of workers involved with cleanup activities. This information also has important implications for the safety and operation of U.S. Commercial nuclear power plants. A collaborative U.S. and Japanese effort was initiated in 2014 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy to identify Daiichi examination needs and evaluate recent Daiichi examination data to address these needs. This document summarizes information presented at and findings, action items, and recommendations by U.S. and Japanese experts in reactor safety and plant operations during the September 2024 Forensics Effort meeting. Significant safety insights were obtained in several areas: system and component performance, radionuclide surveys and sampling, debris end-state location, combustible gas effects, and plant operations and maintenance. In addition to reducing uncertainties and knowledge gaps in severe accident modeling progression, these insights continue to be used to assess whether additional updates are needed in guidance for severe accident prevention, mitigation, and emergency planning. Furthermore, Daiichi-related activities, such as code modeling improvements and analysis, testing, and new technology deployment efforts, have the potential to offer additional safety and economic benefits to the operating fleet and new light water reactor (LWR) and non-LWR designs.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The reliability, cost and performance of electrical connectors are a concern in all types of electrical systems, and demands on connectors used on photovoltaic (PV) systems include that connectors maintain electrical conductivity and physical strength, endure ultraviolet sunlight and high ambient temperature, and resist moisture and chemical intrusion over a very long (>25 year) performance period. Connector failures increase operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduce plant production, but connector failure can also cause safety and liability problems, which are of greater concern. This work results from a three-year collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) under Agreements #39035 and #38531 "Connector Reliability Across the US Solar Sector." a multi-pronged investigation of PV connector health across the US (see https://energy.sandia.gov/pvconnectors/). This report presents derivation of a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that models failure modes and frequencies (how often failure occurs), estimates O&M costs and lost production associated with connector failures, and then calculates the effect that PV module connectors can have on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The model is informed with initial data from quantitative assessment of failure rates, root causes and mechanisms, in-situ diagnostics and data collection, lab-based forensics, and interviews with PV connector manufacturers and plant operators. SNL conducted site inspections at multiple utility-scale sites in different climates and subjected field samples of new, used, and degraded connectors to visual and electrical characterization. EPRI conducted metallurgical analysis of the pin and sleeve conductors to study failure-induced morphological and compositional changes. There is in general a shortage of statistically valid data, but data from PVROM database maintained by SNL was sufficient to ascertain failure rates and lost production as well as provide qualitative insight in its curated maintenance records. This report details the structure of the mathematical model but the sources of data to inform the model will continue to evolve. Analysis of a 100 MW PV plant is provided as an example of the use of the model, with results indicating that connectors are responsible for Annualized O&M Costs of $\$$71,933/year; Annualized Unit O&M Costs of $\$$0.72/kW/year; that a Reserve Account of $\$$187,220 should be available to fund repairs related to connectors; that connectors add $\$$1,494,004 to the Net Present Value of the O&M Costs (project life); and that O&M related to connectors adds about $\$$0.00088/kWh to the Levelized Cost of Energy. The impact of this model is to provide a tool to make the US solar sector more robust by quantifying and monetizing the reliability risks to utility-scale PV systems posed by poorly installed, mismatched and/or poorly designed and manufactured connectors. The TEA provides a model incorporating failure statistics, O&M cost data, and lost production into a single figure of merit, informing decisions and enabling practitioners to optimize cost and performance trade-offs. Stakeholders include connector manufacturers, system designers and equipment specifiers, standards bodies, installers and O&M providers, investors and insurance underwriters. This report supports continued growth of PV predicated on assurances that properly installed and maintained PV system connectors are safe and reliable. The project team is proposing future work including accelerated testing of connectors and expanding the approach taken here to other PV system components, such as TEA for rapid shut-down devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Computational Prediction of Infrasound Arrival Times and Directions from Stationary and Moving Impulsive Sources

This report addresses the need to predict infrasound signal arrival times and back azimuths at monitoring stations, enabling more focused and efficient searches within recorded waveform data. The primary challenge is estimating expected signal arrival windows for stationary and moving acoustic sources, such as chemical explosions, volcanic eruptions, meteoroids, and spacecraft re-entry events. To address this challenge, a reproducible methodology is described that uses simplified propagation speeds for boundary layer, tropospheric, stratospheric, and thermospheric atmospheric waveguides. While the Python source code itself is not freely available, this document provides detailed, step-by-step instructions, and equations enabling users to replicate and adapt the method independently. The method reliably predicts signal arrival intervals and back azimuths, thereby supporting rapid detection and accurate interpretation of infrasound events. Results demonstrate that this method effectively identifies plausible signal arrival intervals and directions, facilitating faster event detection and more reliable interpretation. This methodology directly supports atmospheric monitoring, planetary defense, and forensic analysis of explosive atmospheric events.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Bayesian Statistical Analysis for Mass Spectrometric Data Processing

Thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) is a “gold standard’ technique for actinide isotope amount ratio and assay measurements. • Ubiquitously used in: • Nuclear Nonproliferation • Nuclear Safeguards • Nuclear Forensics • Basic Science • Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) installed a new Thermo Scientific TRITON Plus TIMS in early 2024.

McLarty, Ellis C. [Savannah River National Laborat↗

Summary of FY25 activities on the project Realistic Reaction Evaluations for Fission Products Off Stability (RREFPOS)

Applications such nonproliferation, post-detonation forensics, spent-fuel assay, reactor burnup and design, as well as astrophysics, rely on the accurate description of the neutron interaction with unstable fission products. Current neutron-induced cross-section descriptions for these nuclei are either non-existent or based on simplified assumptions, leading to unquantified impacts on predicted cross-sections. The goal of the Realistic Reaction Evaluations for Fission Products Off Stability (RREFPOS) project is to develop a reproducible methodology leading to a more predictive and realistic new set of evaluated nuclear data, improving the reliability of applications involving fission products off stability. The current report documents the activities related to the RREFPOS project in its first year, corresponding to the Fiscal Year of 2025 (FY25).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Nanotomography for Quantitative 3D Particle Reconstruction

Particulates are ubiquitous across fuel cycle operations and carry critical information about particle formation, processing, and potential proliferation-related activities. Traditional analytical techniques, including micro-Raman spectroscopy and standard electron microscopy, are often limited in spatial resolution or dimensionality, particularly when used to examine metallic or submicron-scale features. Understanding particle morphology, phase distribution, and internal porosity is essential for constraining formation conditions, thermodynamic environments, and material transport behavior. In this report, we demonstrate the application of plasma focused ion beam nanotomography to reconstruct micron-scale particulates at nanoscale resolution. Using high-resolution backscattered electron imaging and Avizo software, we obtained 3D reconstructions that enabled quantitative analysis of particle morphology, phase composition, and internal voids. Representative examples include a Ta particle with a large central void and a composite particle with embedded tetrahedral crystalline structures. These reconstructions reveal structural and compositional details that are inaccessible through conventional 2D imaging. The results demonstrate that nanotomography provides both qualitative and quantitative insights into particle formation and behavior. Using nanotomography, porosity and phase distributions can be quantified to inform models of particle density, transport, and solidification conditions. Beyond technical insights, the workflow developed here establishes a transferable capability for analyzing heterogeneous particles and has potential applications in bulk materials studies via x-ray computed tomography or other volumetric imaging modalities. Ongoing efforts are focused on optimizing the workflow to process multiple particles simultaneously, increasing throughput and statistical robustness. Overall, this work illustrates the power of nanotomography as a tool for connecting particulate morphology to formation mechanisms, composition, and transport, thereby strengthening analytical capabilities for nuclear forensics, fuel cycle analysis, and related scientific investigations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Application of SAMMY for Non-Destructive Characterization of Irradiated Samples Using Neutron Transmission Measurements at VENUS

This report presents the application of SAMMY (Larson 2008), an R-matrix Bayesian fitting system, for analyzing neutron transmission data to enable non-destructive isotopic identification. Transmission measurements were conducted at the VENUS (Bilheux et al. 2023) beamline of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) using samples with unknown or partially characterized compositions. Through the application of SAMMY’s R-matrix Bayesian fitting capabilities to the measured transmission spectra and comparison against evaluated nuclear data libraries, isotopic constituents can be quantitatively determined based on their characteristic neutron resonance signatures. This methodology demonstrates significant potential for applications in nuclear safeguards, forensics, and post-irradiation examination.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Precision spectroscopy of nuclear decays using quantum optomechanical sensors

This project developed and demonstrated a fundamentally new way to detect individual nuclear decays: rather than capturing the energy that decay products deposit in a detector, we measure the tiny mechanical recoil of the entire micron- or nanometer-sized particle in which the decaying nucleus is embedded. Because momentum is conserved, this approach is sensitive even to neutral, weakly interacting particles, including neutrinos, that escape conventional detectors. During the award, the Yale group reported the first-ever mechanical detection of single nuclear decays, a result featured widely in the scientific press, and pushed the sensitivity of smaller levitated nanoparticles into the quantum measurement regime, reaching an impulse resolution within a factor of five of the fundamental Standard Quantum Limit (SQL), good enough in principle to detect the momentum kicked to the particle by a single emitted neutrino. In parallel, the LBNL group developed the theory of quantum-enhanced (sub-SQL) readout tailored to this experiment, showing how squeezed light can push the sensitivity below the SQL. Together these results establish levitated optomechanical sensors as a new tool for precision nuclear decay spectroscopy, with further applications in neutrino physics, quantum metrology, and nuclear forensics and safeguards.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗