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At least 451 records · Page 25

Thermal and solubility effects on fault leakage during geologic carbon storage

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is a promising method for reducing anthropogenic CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere. To safely deploy GCS in the field, it is necessary to assess risks and the effect of uncertainty on safe storage. The effect of uncertainty can be quantified using batches of simulations, but the high computational costs of high-resolution simulations necessitate use of reduced-order models (ROMs). Previous work involves ROMs for quantifying the risk of different potential leakage paths from storage reservoirs to shallow formations. However, previous studies on development of fault-leakage ROMs have limited numbers of uncertain parameters and do not explicitly examine impacts of CO 2 solubility and thermal stresses on fault reactivation, which can generate high-permeability pathways and compromise CO 2 storage. Here, we analyze an ensemble of simulations considering CO 2 leakage from a storage reservoir to a shallow aquifer through a fault while varying a number of uncertain parameters related to thermo-hydro-mechanical properties and CO 2 injection. We show the effects of solubility on: free-phase CO 2 -leakage rates, brine-leakage rates, and poroelastic fault destabilization. We find that CO 2 solubility is more important for estimating free-phase CO 2 -leakage rates compared to brine-leakage rates or poroelastic fault destabilization. We also find that thermal stresses and overpressures have different spatial distributions within the fault, indicating that the spatial variability of overpressures due to variation in flow parameters does not necessarily make the spatial variability of thermal stresses negligible. We suggest the use of the CO 2 phase-change path as a variable in future fault-leakage ROMs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Active‐Source Seismic Imaging of Fault Re‐Activation and Leakage: An Injection Experiment at the Mt Terri Rock Laboratory, Switzerland

Abstract We conducted a time‐lapse seismic experiment utilizing automated active seismic source and sensor arrays to monitor a reactivated fault within the Opalinus clay formation at the Mont Terri Rock Laboratory (Switzerland), an analog caprock for geologic carbon storage. A series of six brine injections were conducted into the so‐called Main Fault to reactivate it. Seismic instrumentation in five monitoring boreholes on either side of the fault was used to continuously probe changes in P‐wave travel‐times associated with fault displacement and leakage. We performed time‐lapse travel‐time tomography on five hundred sequential data sets; this revealed a zone of decreased P‐wave velocity, up to 16 m/s, during each injection cycle, followed by a velocity increase during shut‐in. These results demonstrate varying elastic property perturbations, both spatially and temporally, along the fault plane during reactivation. We then interpreted these velocity changes in terms of fault dilation induced by pressurized fluids along the fault.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Research challenges and directions in HVAC fault prevalence

This study provides a review of the current state of knowledge, gaps, and potential value in research on the prevalence of faults in commercial buildings. Two separate efforts were made in this study: (1) we performed a literature review to determine the extent of currently available fault prevalence data for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, and (2) we conducted dozens of interviews with subject matter experts and stakeholders to determine the HVAC fault data that would be of greatest value. Through the literature review and interviews, we discovered unmet needs for empirical data on the prevalence of faults at the desired level of granularity, consistency, and scale; this lack of data leads us to recommend future work studying commercial buildings’ HVAC fault prevalence, with robust fault taxonomy and a variety of meaningful fault prevalence metrics.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Model Predictive Fault-Tolerant Tracking Control for PDF Control Systems With Packet Losses

In this article, a fault-tolerant tracking control strategy is investigated for nonlinear probability density function (PDF) control systems with the actuator fault, uncertainties, unknown disturbance, and random packet losses. The control input signal dropout and measurement signal dropouts are described as the independent Bernoulli distribution. An adaptive fault diagnosis (FD) observer based on the Lyapunov function is given to simultaneously estimate the fault, disturbance, and state with packet losses. Furthermore, different from the traditional robust fault-tolerant control (FTC), a new active fault-tolerant tracking controller is designed based on the model predictive control framework, which has better adaptive fault-tolerant performance. Finally, the validity of the proposed FTC method has been proved by a simulation study of a papermaking process.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Jefferson Laboratory C100 Superconducting Radio-Frequency Cavity Fault Data, 2020

The dataset was created to train machine learning models for the task of identifying the (1) cavity and (2) fault type from C100-type cryomodules at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Lab), thereby replacing the time-consuming efforts of a subject matter expert. Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavity trips represent a significant source of accelerator downtime. Real-time – rather than post-mortem – identification of the offending cavity and classification of the fault type would give control room operators valuable feedback for corrective action planning. The anticipated benefit is increased beam-on-target time for users and provides performance metrics that can be used to improve future cavity designs. A series of 17 RF signals are recorded for each of the 8 cavities in a C100 cryomodule every time a cavity trips. These time-series signals are written to file using a specially designed data acquisition system. The dataset represents fault events recorded during Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) beam operations between January 18, 2019 and March 9, 2020. The following filtering steps were applied to collected data; (1) only 4 of the 17 signals per cavity are retained (GMES, GASK, CRFP, DETA2) (2) only events with data from each of the eight cavities in the cryomodule are kept, (3) only events that were sampled at 5 kHz were kept, (4) events from cryomodule 0L04 were neglected, (5) events occurring between February 4, 3PM and February 5, 12PM were neglected. As a result of preprocessing, the dataset is comprised of 2,375 unique events. The full dataset is comprised of three files: features.csv, cavity_labels.csv, fault_labels.csv. Each instance in faults.csv includes a timestamp (“date_time”), a label for the cryomodule which experienced the trip (“zone_label”), and 192 features (“feature_1”, “feature_2”... “feature_192”). The features correspond to 6 autoregressive features for each of 4 signals per cavity for each of the 8 cavities (6 × 4 signals/cavity × 8 cavities/cryomodule = 192). To deal with the large variation of signal amplitudes, time-series standardization via the z-score (standard score) function was applied prior to computing the features. For each instance, there is an associated label for the (1) cavity which faulted first (cavity_labels.csv) and (2) the type of fault that caused the trip (fault_labels.csv). The cavity identification can take values of [0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8] and the fault type can take values of [‘Microphonics’, ‘Quench_100ms’, ‘Controls_Fault’, ‘E_Quench’, ‘Quench_3ms’, ‘Single_Cav_Turn_Off’ , ‘Heat_Riser_Choke’, ‘Multi_Cav_Turn_Off’].

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

High-Frequency Signature-Based Fault Detection for Future MV Distribution Grids: Preprint

Increased deployment of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and microgrids are significantly changing the operation of distribution grid. Increasing penetration of power electronics based DERs also raise several operational problems such as protection coordination issues, voltage raise, recloser synchronization, stability, and frequency control. Legacy systems are designed for unidirectional power flow. Bidirectional power flows, and varying short circuit levels are some of the major challenges in implementing these legacy protection schemes for future power grid with high penetration of power electronics based DERs. Inverter based DER’s can contribute to a maximum of 2 p.u. fault current. Interconnection standards might require even lower fault current contribution. If these protection related challenges are not addressed, it will result in limiting the penetration of DERs in distribution feeders. In this paper, the feasibility of high frequency signature generated by transients is evaluated to identify and locate faults in a distribution system. The paper will discuss the need for an accurate line modeling approach to accurately capture the high frequency signatures. These high frequency signatures are naturally occurring electromagnetic transients for events such as switching events in the network, faults events, etc. This is different than that implemented in transmission systems as the proposed approach utilizes advanced signal processing techniques to retrieve valuable information from the high frequency signatures generated during faults and does not just rely on time delay measurements between reflections of the high frequency signals. In the full paper, information of a modified IEEE distribution feeder test system to accurately model the high frequency signatures will be provided. The distribution lines will be modeled using universal line modeling (ULM) technique in an electromagnetic transients program (EMTP) modeling platform. Different test cases will be simulated and these test cases will include different fault types, multiple fault locations, capacitor bank switching, etc. The feeder system modeled for these simulations will also include power electronics based DERs. Additionally, experimental results demonstrating the high frequency signatures generated due to a transient event in a medium voltage (13.8 kV) distribution line will also be presented in the full paper. Furthermore, the analysis combined with simulation and experimental results in the full paper will help demonstrate the feasibility and efficacy of the proposed protection scheme. The developed protection scheme will not just help solve problems generated by bidirectional current flow, varying short-circuit current capacity, but also help in proliferation of DERs in distribution systems.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Phasor Measurement Units Optimal Placement and Performance Limits for Fault Localization

Here, the performance limits of faults localization are investigated using synchrophasor data. The focus is on a non-trivial operating regime where the number of Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) sensors available is insufficient to have full observability of the grid state. Proposed analysis uses the Kullback Leibler (KL) divergence between the distributions corresponding to different fault location hypotheses associated with the observation model. This analysis shows that the most likely locations are concentrated in clusters of buses more tightly connected to the actual fault site akin to graph communities. Consequently, a PMU placement strategy is derived that achieves a near-optimal resolution for localizing faults for a given number of sensors. The problem is also analyzed from the perspective of sampling a graph signal, and how the placement of the PMUs i.e. the spatial sampling pattern and the topological characteristic of the grid affect the ability to successfully localize faults. To highlight the superior performance of presented fault localization and placement algorithms, the proposed strategy is applied to a modified IEEE 34, IEEE-123 bus test cases and to data from a real distribution grid. Additionally, the detection of cyber-physical attacks is also examined where PMU data and relevant Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) network traffic information are compared to determine if a network breach has affected the integrity of the system information and/or operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Creeping faults: Good news, bad news?

The motion of the Earth's tectonic plates drive fault slip. Some faults slip in sudden movements, releasing great amounts of energy during large earthquake ruptures, while others slip in steadier movements which release energy more slowly. The latter, known as creeping faults, are believed to be less hazardous but there is mounting evidence that they are more complex than previously thought and can also pose a significant hazard. A recent review by Harris [2017] documents the earthquake potential of creeping faults in shallow continental fault zones from worldwide data. Furthermore, she presents a comprehensive review of prior studies; key insights into when, where, and why fault creep takes place and under which conditions creeping faults may represent high seismic hazard and suggests some directions for future research.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impact of refrigerant undercharge faults on building indoor conditions and HVAC system operation in residential Buildings: A simulation study

This study investigates the impact of refrigerant undercharge on indoor temperature and HVAC system performance in residential buildings. Simulation models for typical residential buildings in Orlando, FL and Indianapolis, IN were developed using the ResStock database. A refrigerant undercharge fault model was then applied to the simulations with varying levels of fault intensity. The paper offers an extensive analysis, revealing that variations in supply air temperature, equipment runtime, and cooling energy consumption due to the level of refrigerant undercharge faults are notably significant on a summer representative day. Similarly, on a winter representative day, changes in supply air temperature and runtime are significant as well as changes in supplemental heat energy consumption. We find that occupants may remain oblivious to these faults during the cooling season, particularly when the HVAC system is oversized; in that case, supply air temperature data could help detect a fault. Another challenge is that during the heating season, when the supplemental heater operates, it is difficult to identify a refrigerant undercharge fault using only indoor and supply air temperature data. Finally, this study finds that supply air temperature, equipment runtime, and supplemental heater energy consumption data can help in detecting refrigerant undercharge faults.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Fault Detection for Dynamical Systems using Differential Geometric and Concurrent Learning Approach

This paper presents a fault identification and estimation approach that brings together the differential geometric concept of observability codistribution with data driven concurrent learning. In order to identify faults in presence of unknown disturbances, we utilize the differential geometric approach to design a coordinate transformation, to find a subspace in which the effect of disturbances and system faults can be segregated. We then use concurrent learning to estimate magnitude of the constant fault. We illustrate the approach to fault isolation for a linear helicopter dynamics and a spherical pendulum dynamics. We use Lyapunov stability analysis to show that the fault estimate by concurrent learning converges to the actual fault value, and then illustrate the design of a recovery controller.

Fault detection and diagnosis↗

Effects of Fault Roughness on Coseismic Slip and Earthquake Locations

We report that fault zone structure is well known to exert strong controls on earthquake properties including coseismic slip distribution, rupture propagation direction, and hypocenter location. It has also been well established that the principal slip surface, which accommodates the majority of earthquake displacement, exhibits roughness at all scales following self-affine fractal distributions. Here we explore the relationship between fault roughness and specific earthquake properties including coseismic slip distribution and hypocenter location based on long-term simulations of earthquake catalogs on fractally rough faults. We begin by using the von Kármán autocorrelation function to procedurally generate single faults with different fractal roughness properties, which we place in a homogeneous elastic solid and apply pure right-lateral shear at a constant back slip rate with the earthquake simulator RSQSim. Running the simulations for 10,000 years each, we generate millions of earthquakes including thousands of events with Mw > 6.0, which rupture the surface. We show that the patterns of surface rupture in these large events follow self-affine fractal distributions with consistent fractal dimension related distinctly to the fractal dimension of the fault. In addition, the hypocenters of these large events occur in very specific predictable locations where the longest wavelength structure produces a stress asperity (i.e., restraining bend). The resulting patterns can explain many features observed on real fault systems, including clustered hypocenter locations, spatially variable coseismic slip distributions, and characteristic slip recurrence behavior. Lastly, these results demonstrate a quantitative link between a directly measurable fault property—roughness—and the properties of future earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Stable Rate of Slip Along the Karakax Section of the Altyn Tagh Fault from Observation of Interglacial and Postglacial Offset Morphology and Surface Dating

Digital elevation maps obtained using TanDEM-X and Pleiades data combined with newly obtained surface age estimates using cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) and optically simulated luminescence (OSL) methods are used to quantify the slip rate along the western section of the Altyn Tagh Fault in southern Xinjiang. The reconstruction of the conical shape of massive alluvial fans inferred to be from the Eemian (115±7 ka) from CRN dating shows consistent left-lateral offsets of 300±20 m, yielding a slip rate of 2.6±0.3 mm/year. Successive episodes of incision have left cut terraces inset in wide canyons, 10–25 m below the fans' surface. The incision was followed by the deposition of a broad terrace of early Holocene age, which is reincised by modern stream channels. Near the village of Shanxili, a 200 m wide valley is partially dammed by a shutter ridge displaced by the fault. A fill terrace deposited upstream from the ridge has an OSL age of 8.8±0.6 ka. The 23±2 m offset of the riser incising the terrace indicates a minimum postdepositional movement on the fault, yielding a Holocene rate of 2.6±0.5 mm/year, consistent with the 115-ka average slip rate. Furthermore, scarp degradation analysis using mass diffusion reveals a nonlinear relationship between fault displacement and degradation coefficient along the progressively exposed fault scarp, a pattern suggesting either seismic clustering or variable diffusion rate since the Eemian. Together with the Gozha Co-Longmu Co fault to the south, the Karakax section of the Altyn Tagh Fault contributes to the eastward movement of the western corner of Tibet.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Preseismic Fault Creep and Elastic Wave Amplitude Precursors Scale With Lab Earthquake Magnitude for the Continuum of Tectonic Failure Modes

Tectonic faults fail in a continuum of modes from slow earthquakes to elastodynamic rupture. Precursory variations in elastic wavespeed and amplitude, interpreted as indicators of imminent failure, have been observed in limited natural settings and lab experiments where they are thought to arise from contact rejuvenation and microcracking within and around the fault zone. However, the physical mechanisms and connections to fault creep are poorly understood. Here we vary loading stiffness during frictional shear to generate a range of slip modes and measure fault zone properties using transmitted elastic waves. We find that elastic wave amplitudes show clear changes before fault failure. The temporal onset of amplitude reduction scales with lab earthquake magnitude and the magnitude of this reduction varies with fault slip. Our data provide clear evidence of precursors to lab earthquakes and suggest that continuous seismic monitoring could be useful for assessing fault state and seismic hazard potential.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Physical Properties and Gas Hydrate at a Near-Seafloor Thrust Fault, Hikurangi Margin, New Zealand

The Papaku Fault Zone, drilled at International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1518, is an active splay fault in the frontal accretionary wedge of the Hikurangi Margin. In logging-while-drilling data, the 33-m-thick fault zone exhibits mixed modes of deformation associated with a trend of downward decreasing density, P-wave velocity, and resistivity. Methane hydrate is observed from ~30 to 585 m below seafloor (mbsf), including within and surrounding the fault zone. Hydrate accumulations are vertically discontinuous and occur throughout the entire logged section at low to moderate saturation in silty and sandy centimeter-thick layers. In this paper, we argue that the hydrate distribution implies that the methane is not sourced from fluid flow along the fault but instead by local diffusion. This, combined with geophysical observations and geochemical measurements from Site U1518, suggests that the fault is not a focused migration pathway for deeply sourced fluids and that the near-seafloor Papaku Fault Zone has little to no active fluid flow.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Fault-Related CO 2 Degassing, Geothermics, and Fluid Flow in Southern California Basins--Physiochemical Evidence and Modeling

Our studies have had an important impact on societal issues. Experimental and field observations show that CO 2 degassing, such as might occur from stored CO 2 reservoir gas, can result in significant stable isotopic disequilibrium. In the offshore South Ellwood field of the Santa Barbara channel, we show how oil production has reduced natural seep rates in the area, thereby reducing greenhouse gases. Permeability is calculated to be ~20-30 millidarcys for km-scale fault-focused fluid flow, using changes in natural gas seepage rates from well production, and poroelastic changes in formation pore-water pressure. In the Los Angeles (LA) basin, our characterization of formation water chemistry, including stable isotopic studies, allows the distinction between deep and shallow formations waters. Our multiphase computational-based modeling of petroleum migration demonstrates the important role of major faults on geological-scale fluid migration in the LA basin, and show how petroleum was dammed up against the Newport-Inglewood fault zone in a “geologically fast” interval of time (less than 0.5 million years). Furthermore, these fluid studies also will allow evaluation of potential cross-formational mixing of formation fluids. Lastly, our new study of helium isotopes in the LA basin shows a significant leakage of mantle helium along the Newport Inglewood fault zone (NIFZ), at flow rates up to 2 cm/yr. Crustal-scale fault permeability (~60 microdarcys) and advective versus conductive heat transport rates have been estimated using the observed helium isotopic data. The NIFZ is an important deep-seated fault that may crosscut a proposed basin decollement fault in this heavily populated area, and appears to allow seepage of helium from the mantle sources about 30 km beneath Los Angeles. The helium study has been widely cited in recent weeks by the news media, both in radio and on numerous web sites.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assessment of Envelope- and Machine Learning-Based Electrical Fault Type Detection Algorithms for Electrical Distribution Grids

This study introduces envelope- and machine learning (ML)-based electrical fault type detection algorithms for electrical distribution grids, advancing beyond traditional logic-based methods. The proposed detection model involves three stages: anomaly area detection, ML-based fault presence detection, and ML-based fault type detection. Initially, an envelope-based detector identifying the anomaly region was improved to handle noisier power grid signals from meters. The second stage acts as a switch, detecting the presence of a fault among four classes: normal, motor, switching, and fault. Finally, if a fault is detected, the third stage identifies specific fault types. This study explored various feature extraction methods and evaluated different ML algorithms to maximize prediction accuracy. The performance of the proposed algorithms is tested in an emulated software–hardware electrical grid testbed using different sample rate meters/relays, such as SEL735, SEL421, SEL734, SEL700GT, and SEL351S near and far from an inverter-based photovoltaic array farm. The performance outcomes demonstrate the proposed model’s robustness and accuracy under realistic conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

3D Imaging of Geothermal Faults from a Vertical DAS Fiber at Brady Hot Spring, NV USA

In March 2016, arguably the most ambitious 4D (3D space + over time) active-source seismic survey for geothermal exploration in the U.S. was acquired at Brady Natural Laboratory, outside Fernley, Nevada. The four-week experiment included 191 vibroseis source locations, and approximately 130 m of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) in a vertical well, located at the southern end of the survey area. The imaging of the geothermal faults is done with reverse time migration of the DAS data for both P-P and P-S events in order to generate 3D models of reflectivity, which can identify subsurface fault locations. Three scenarios of receiver data are explored to investigate the reliability of the reflectivity models obtained: (1) Migration of synthetic P-P and P-S DAS data, (2) migration of the observed field DAS data and (3) migration of pure random noise to better assess the validity of our results. The comparisons of the 3D reflectivity models from these three scenarios confirm that sections of three known faults at Brady produce reflected energy observed by the DAS. Two faults that are imaged are ~1 km away from the DAS well; one of these faults (middle west-dipping) is well-constructed for over 400 m along the fault’s strike, and 300 m in depth. These results confirm that the DAS data, together with an imaging engine such as reverse time migration, can be used to position important geothermal features such as faults.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Early Fault Detection in Particle Accelerator Power Electronics Using Ensemble Learning

Early fault detection and fault prognosis are crucial to ensure efficient and safe operations of complex engineering systems such as the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) and its power electronics (high voltage converter modulators). Following an advanced experimental facility setup that mimics SNS operating conditions, the authors successfully conducted 21 early fault detection experiments, where fault precursors are introduced in the system to a degree enough to cause degradation in the waveform signals, but not enough to reach a real fault. Nine different machine learning techniques based on ensemble trees, convolutional neural networks, support vector machines, and hierarchical voting ensembles are proposed to detect the fault precursors. Although all 9 models have shown a perfect and identical performance during the training and testing phase, the performance of most models has decreased in the next test phase once they got exposed to realworld data from the 21 experiments. The hierarchical voting ensemble, which features multiple layers of diverse models, maintains a distinguished performance in early detection of the fault precursors with 95% success rate (20/21 tests), followed by adaboost and extremely randomized trees with 52% and 48% success rates, respectively. The support vector machine models were the worst with only 24% success rate (5/21 tests). The study concluded that a successful implementation of machine learning in the SNS or particle accelerator power systems would require a major upgrade in the controller and the data acquisition system to facilitate streaming and handling big data for the machine learning models. In addition, this study shows that the best performing models were diverse and based on the ensemble concept to reduce the bias and hyperparameter sensitivity of individual models.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗