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At least 451 records · Page 25

Experimental and Numerical Investigation of the NASA High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor Vaned Stage Geometry and Aerodynamic Performance

Since its inception in the early 2010s, the NASA High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor (HECC) has been enigmatic for the propulsion research community: experimental data and numerical simulations of the stage have generally not aligned in their quantifications of performance metrics. Typically, the fault for these disagreements is assigned to the numerical simulations as the simulations are models, and models are inherently incomplete representations of the experiment. This “incompleteness” may manifest in assumptions regarding roughness or heat transfer, simplifications of the flow path (i.e., neglecting bleed flows), or the oft-scapegoated turbulence model. In the case of HECC, recent work showed unexpected discrepancies between the intended impeller geometry defined in the design report (termed Design-Intent) and the manufactured impeller used in the experimental campaigns (termed As-Manufactured). That work used numerical simulations to establish that the geometric differences between the Design-Intent and As-Manufactured impellers were significant enough to result in drastically different performance predictions for the HECC vaneless diffuser configuration. The Design-Intent impeller simulations over predicted the performance relative to the experiment, whereas the As-Manufactured simulations better represented the experimental data, both in terms of one-dimensional performance metrics and spanwise flow profiles. This effort expands on that work by examining in detail the geometry and aerodynamic performance of the HECC vaned diffuser configuration. Further differences between the Design-Intent and As-Manufactured geometries have been discovered in the vaned diffuser and exit guide vanes, and these differences are documented herein. The summations of the geometric differences for all of the components were used to create two numerical models of HECC vaned diffuser configuration: the Design-Intent simulations which are generated from the original geometry definitions given in the design report and the As-Manufactured simulations which are the best available representation of the manufactured compressor hardware used in the experimental test campaigns. In congruence with the earlier vaneless diffuser work, the numerical predictions of the Design-Intent choked mass flow rate, total pressure ratio, and efficiency were notably greater than that of the As-Manufactured simulations. To increase confidence in the experimental dataset, measurements from a recent test campaign conducted in 2024 are used to validate the original experimental data acquired from 2012 to 2014 with good repeatability overall, especially considering the passage of time and differences in the data acquisition systems between the test campaigns. Both numerical simulations were then extensively evaluated against the experimental data. The As-Manufactured simulations provided better estimates of the stage performance than the Design-Intent cases in terms of most performance metrics. Nonetheless, more detailed results still show opportunities for improvement. Despite a more accurate representation of the physical hardware, characterization of the impeller work input remains a challenge even for rigorously developed numerical models.

centrifugal compressor↗

Evaluation of C-band SAR data from SAREX 1992: Tapajos study site

As part of the SAREX'92 (South American Radar Experiment), the Tapajos study site, located in Para State, Brazil was imaged by the Canada Center for Remote Sensing (CCRS) Convair 580 SAR system using a C-band frequency in HH and VV polarization and 3 different imaging modes (nadir, narrow, and wide swath). A preliminary analysis of this dataset is presented. The wide swath C-band HH polarized image was enlarged to 1:100,000 in a photographic form for manual interpretation. This was compared with a vegetation map produced primarily from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data and with single-band and color composite images derived from a decomposition analysis of TM data. The Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image shows well the topography and drainage network defining the different geomorphological units, and canopy texture differences which appear to be related to the size and maturity of the forest canopy. Areas of recent clearing of the primary forest can also be identified on the SAR image. The SAR system appears to be a source of information for monitoring tropical forest which is complementary to the Landsat Thematic Mapper.

Shimabukuro, Yosio Edemir↗

The Reanalysis for Stratospheric Trace Gas Studies

The "Reanalysis for Stratospheric Trace Gas Studies" (ReSTS) project intends to provide a state-of-the-art meteorological dataset for use in chemistry-transport models (CTMs). The initial focus is on the period from May 1991 until April 1995, which encompasses the initial few years of observations from NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) as well as the abrupt increase and slow decay of volcanic aerosol loading from Mount Pinatubo. The reanalysis is being performed using NASA's operational "GEOS-4" data assimilation system. The results presented in this paper will begin with an overview of the meteorology of the ReSTS period, validating the ReSTS data against independent analyses, followed by an evaluation of the system statistics (the "Observation minus Forecast" for different input data types). Some sensitivities to the assumptions made in the assimilation process will be presented, including aspects of the forecast model and the statistical model used in the observation-forecast merging. Aspects of trace-gas transport will be discussed, focussing on the on-line water vapor distribution (which is a quasi-inert trace gas in the stratosphere), off-line transport studies of ozone and selected long-lived species, as well as assimilated ozone. The results will be discussed in the context of transport studies and our ability to use reanalyzed datasets to examine long-term variations in the meteorology and composition of the middle atmosphere.

Pawson, Steven↗

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Agricultural Model Performance to Different Climate Inputs: Supplemental Material

Projections of future food production necessarily rely on models, which must themselves be validated through historical assessments comparing modeled and observed yields. Reliable historical validation requires both accurate agricultural models and accurate climate inputs. Problems with either may compromise the validation exercise. Previous studies have compared the effects of different climate inputs on agricultural projections but either incompletely or without a ground truth of observed yields that would allow distinguishing errors due to climate inputs from those intrinsic to the crop model. This study is a systematic evaluation of the reliability of a widely used crop model for simulating U.S. maize yields when driven by multiple observational data products. The parallelized Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (pDSSAT) is driven with climate inputs from multiple sources reanalysis, reanalysis that is bias corrected with observed climate, and a control dataset and compared with observed historical yields. The simulations show that model output is more accurate when driven by any observation-based precipitation product than when driven by non-bias-corrected reanalysis. The simulations also suggest, in contrast to previous studies, that biased precipitation distribution is significant for yields only in arid regions. Some issues persist for all choices of climate inputs: crop yields appear to be oversensitive to precipitation fluctuations but under sensitive to floods and heat waves. These results suggest that the most important issue for agricultural projections may be not climate inputs but structural limitations in the crop models themselves.

simulation↗

Large Contribution of Meteorological Factors to Inter-Decadal Changes in Regional Aerosol Optical Depth

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) has become a crucial metric for assessing global climate change. Although global and regional AOD trends have been studied extensively, it remains unclear what factors are driving the inter-decadal variations in regional AOD and how to quantify the relative contribution of each dominant factor. This study used a long-term (1980–2016) aerosol dataset from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, along with two satellite-based AOD datasets (MODIS/Terra and MISR) from 2001 to 2016, to investigate the long-term trends in global and regional aerosol loading. Statistical models based on emission factors and meteorological parameters were developed to identify the main factors driving the inter-decadal changes of regional AOD and to quantify their contribution. Evaluation of the MERRA-2 AOD with the ground-based measurements of AERONET indicated significant spatial agreement on the global scale (r= 0.85, root-mean-square error = 0.12, mean fractional error = 38.7 %, fractional gross error = 9.86 % and index of agreement = 0.94). However, when AOD observations from the China Aerosol Remote Sensing Network (CARSNET) were employed for independent verification, the results showed that MERRA-2 AODs generally underestimated CARSNET AODs in China (relative mean bias = 0.72 and fractional gross error =−34.3 %). In general, MERRA-2 was able to quantitatively reproduce the annual and seasonal AOD trends on both regional and global scales, as observed by MODIS/Terra, although some differences were found when compared to MISR. Over the 37-year period in this study, significant decreasing trends were observed over Europe and the eastern United States. In contrast, eastern China and southern Asia showed AOD increases, but the increasing trend of the former reversed sharply in the most recent decade. The statistical analyses suggested that the meteorological parameters explained a larger proportion of the AOD variability (20.4 %–72.8 %) over almost all regions of interest (ROIs) during 1980–2014 when compared with emission factors (0 %–56 %). Further analysis also showed that SO2 was the dominant emission factor, explaining 12.7 %–32.6 % of the variation in AOD over anthropogenic-aerosol-dominant regions, while black carbon or organic carbon was the leading factor over the biomass-burning-dominant (BBD) regions, contributing 24.0 %–27.7 % of the variation. Additionally, wind speed was found to be the leading meteorological parameter, explaining 11.8 %–30.3 % of the variance over the mineral-dust-dominant regions, while ambient humidity (including soil moisture and relative humidity) was the top meteorological parameter over the BBD regions, accounting for 11.7 %–35.5 % of the variation. The results of this study indicate that the variation in meteorological parameters is a key factor in determining the inter-decadal change in regional AOD.

Huizheng Che↗

STK Integrated Message Production List Editor (SIMPLE) for CEO Operations

Late in fiscal year 2011, the Crew Earth Observations (CEO) team was tasked to upgrade and replace its mission planning and mission operations software systems, which were developed in the Space Shuttle era of the 1980s and 1990s. The impetuses for this change were the planned transition of all workstations to the Windows 7 64-bit operating system and the desire for more efficient and effective use of Satellite Tool Kit (STK) software required for reliable International Space Station (ISS) Earth location tracking. An additional requirement of this new system was the use of the same SQL database of CEO science sites from the SMMS, which was also being developed. STK Integrated Message Production List Editor (SIMPLE) is the essential, all-in-one tool now used by CEO staff to perform daily ISS mission planning to meet its requirement to acquire astronaut photography of specific sites on Earth. The sites are part of a managed, long-term database that has been defined and developed for scientific, educational, and public interest. SIMPLE's end product is a set of basic time and location data computed for an operator-selected set of targets that the ISS crew will be asked to photograph (photography is typically planned 12 to 36 hours out). The CEO operator uses SIMPLE to (a) specify a payload operations planning period; (b) acquire and validate the best available ephemeris data (vectors) for the ISS during the planning period; (c) ingest and display mission-specific site information from the CEO database; (d) identify and display potential current dynamic event targets as map features; (e) compute and display time and location information for each target; (f) screen and select targets based on known crew availability constraints, obliquity constraints, and real-time evaluated constraints to target visibility due to illumination (sun elevation) and atmospheric conditions (weather); and finally (g) incorporate basic, computed time and location information for each selected target into the daily CEO Target List product (message) for submission to ISS payload planning and integration teams for their review and approval prior to uplink. SIMPLE requires and uses the following resources: an ISS mission planning period Greenwich Mean Time start date/time and end date/time), the best available ISS mission ephemeris data (vectors) for that planning period, the STK software package configured for the ISS, and an ISS mission-specific subset of the CEO sites database. The primary advantages realized by the development and implementation of SIMPLE into the CEO payload operations support activity are a smooth transition to the Windows 7 operating system upon scheduled workstation refresh; streamlining of the input and verification of the current ISS ephemeris (vector data); seamless incorporation of selected contents of the SQL database of science sites; the ability to tag and display potential dynamic event opportunities on orbit track maps; simplification of the display and selection of encountered sites based on crew availability, illumination, obliquity, and weather constraints; the incorporation of high-quality mapping of the Earth with various satellite-based datasets for use in describing targets; and the ability to encapsulate and export the essential selected target elements in XML format for use by onboard Earth-location systems, such as Worldmap. SIMPLE is a carefully designed and crafted in-house software package that includes detailed help files for the user and meticulous internal documentation for future modifications. It was delivered in February 2012 for test and evaluation. Following acceptance, it was implemented for CEO mission operations support in May 2012.

Trenchard, Mike↗

Historic Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Mato Grosso, Brazil: 1. Source Data Uncertainties

Historic carbon emissions are an important foundation for proposed efforts to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation and enhance forest carbon stocks through conservation and sustainable forest management (REDD+). The level of uncertainty in historic carbon emissions estimates is also critical for REDD+, since high uncertainties could limit climate benefits from mitigation actions. Here, we analyzed source data uncertainties based on the range of available deforestation, forest degradation, and forest carbon stock estimates for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 1990-2008. Results: Deforestation estimates showed good agreement for multi-year trends of increasing and decreasing deforestation during the study period. However, annual deforestation rates differed by >20% in more than half of the years between 1997-2008, even for products based on similar input data. Tier 2 estimates of average forest carbon stocks varied between 99-192 Mg C/ha, with greatest differences in northwest Mato Grosso. Carbon stocks in deforested areas increased over the study period, yet this increasing trend in deforested biomass was smaller than the difference among carbon stock datasets for these areas. Conclusions: Patterns of spatial and temporal disagreement among available data products provide a roadmap for future efforts to reduce source data uncertainties for estimates of historic forest carbon emissions. Specifically, regions with large discrepancies in available estimates of both deforestation and forest carbon stocks are priority areas for evaluating and improving existing estimates. Full carbon accounting for REDD+ will also require filling data gaps, including forest degradation and secondary forest, with annual data on all forest transitions.

Morton, Douglas C.↗

A Dynamic PCA and Machine Learning Tool for Automated Identification of Solar Wind Disturbances Impacting Earth’s Magnetosphere

Earth’s magnetosphere is continuously impacted by solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) disturbances, such as shocks, discontinuities, magnetic clouds and more. Understanding how such disturbances propagate from the Sun and what is their impact on the different magnetospheric domains is key to understanding and forecasting energy transfer from the solar wind to Earth. The large number of overlapping solar wind and magnetospheric missions carrying magnetometers and the recent advances in communications and data storage technologies have enabled an unprecedented quantity of high-fidelity magnetic field data captured by in-situ spacecraft to be available at the click of a button. However, this massive quantity of available data can prove unwieldy for researchers, limiting the identification of interesting phenomena and disturbances to a relatively small percentage of the total dataset. Several techniques have been previously developed for automated identification of specific types of magnetic anomalies, but these methods are typically mission-specific and can be difficult to generalize. We present initial results for a generic method of automated anomaly detection in magnetic field measurements based on dimensionality reduction and unsupervised clustering via machine learning. The benefit of our technique is its high degree of generalizability and flexibility which make it a most useful data survey tool for a wide range of magnetic field datasets. This method can also be applied simultaneously to other observed time-series properties like plasma density, pressure, and velocity for more accurate event identification. Additionally, the application of this method to data captured by multiple spacecraft enables the simultaneous identification of disturbances and the determination of their propagation characteristics. Initial evaluation of this technique has been performed using data from Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) and THEMIS-ARTEMIS missions, providing a testbed scenario for the future Heliophysics Environmental and Radiation Measurement Experiment Suite (HERMES) platform instruments that will measure solar wind and IMF properties from lunar orbit onboard the Gateway station.

Miguel Martinez-Ledesma↗

A Dynamic PCA and Machine Learning Tool for Automated Identification of Solar Wind Disturbances Impacting Earth’s Magnetosphere

Earth’s magnetosphere is continuously impacted by solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) disturbances, such as shocks, discontinuities, magnetic clouds and more. Understanding how such disturbances propagate from the Sun and what is their impact on the different magnetospheric domains is key to understanding and forecasting energy transfer from the solar wind to Earth. The large number of overlapping solar wind and magnetospheric missions carrying magnetometers and the recent advances in communications and data storage technologies have enabled an unprecedented quantity of high-fidelity magnetic field data captured by in-situ spacecraft to be available at the click of a button. However, this massive quantity of available data can prove unwieldy for researchers, limiting the identification of interesting phenomena and disturbances to a relatively small percentage of the total dataset. Several techniques have been previously developed for automated identification of specific types of magnetic anomalies, but these methods are typically mission-specific and can be difficult to generalize. We present initial results for a generic method of automated anomaly detection in magnetic field measurements based on dimensionality reduction and unsupervised clustering via machine learning. The benefit of our technique is its high degree of generalizability and flexibility which make it a most useful data survey tool for a wide range of magnetic field datasets. This method can also be applied simultaneously to other observed time-series properties like plasma density, pressure, and velocity for more accurate event identification. Additionally, the application of this method to data captured by multiple spacecraft enables the simultaneous identification of disturbances and the determination of their propagation characteristics. Initial evaluation of this technique has been performed using data from Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) and THEMIS-ARTEMIS missions, providing a testbed scenario for the future Heliophysics Environmental and Radiation Measurement Experiment Suite (HERMES) platform instruments that will measure solar wind and IMF properties from lunar orbit onboard the Gateway station.

Miguel Martinez-Ledesma↗

Evaluation and Applications of Cloud Climatologies from CALIOP

Clouds have a major impact on the Earth radiation budget and differences in the representation of clouds in global climate models are responsible for much of the spread in predicted climate sensitivity. Existing cloud climatologies, against which these models can be tested, have many limitations. The CALIOP lidar, carried on the CALIPSO satellite, has now acquired over two years of nearly continuous cloud and aerosol observations. This dataset provides an improved basis for the characterization of 3-D global cloudiness. Global average cloud cover measured by CALIOP is about 75%, significantly higher than for existing cloud climatologies due to the sensitivity of CALIOP to optically thin cloud. Day/night biases in cloud detection appear to be small. This presentation will discuss detection sensitivity and other issues associated with producing a cloud climatology, characteristics of cloud cover statistics derived from CALIOP data, and applications of those statistics.

Winker, David↗

How Does Mediterranean Basin's Atmosphere Become Weak Moisture Source During Negative Phase of NAO: Use of AIRS, AMSR, TOVS, & TRMM Satellite Datasets Over Last Two NAO Cycles to Examine Governing Controls on E-P

The Mediterranean Sea is a noted 'concentration" basin in that it almost continuously exhibits positive evaporation minus precipitation (E - P ) properties -- throughout the four seasons and from one year to the next. Nonetheless, according to the ECMWF Era-40 48-year (1958-2005) climate reanalysis dataset, for various phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) when the pressure gradient between Portugal and Iceland becomes either very relaxed (large negative NAO-Index) or in transition (small positive or negative NAO-Index), the atmospheric moisture source properties of the basin become weak, at times even reversed for several months (i.e., negative E - P). This behavior poses numerous questions concerning how and why these events occur. Moreover, it begs the question of what it would take for the basin to reach its tipping point in which P would exceed E throughout the rainy season (some six months) on an annually persistent basis -- and the sea would possibly transform to a recurring "dilution" basin. This talk investigates these questions by: (1) establishing over a period from 1979 to present, based on detailed analyses of satellite retrieval products from a combination of NASA-AQUA, NOAA-LEO, NASA/JAXA Scatterometer, and NASA-TRMM platforms, plus additional specialized satellite data products and ancillary meteorological datasets, the actual observation-based behavior of E - P, (2) diagnosing the salient physical and meteorological mechanisms that lead to the weaker E - P events during the analysis period, partly based on analyzing surface and upper air data at discrete stations in the western and eastern Mediterranean -- while at the same time evaluating the quality of the ERA-40 data over this same time period, (3) conducting GCM and high-resolution regional modeling experiments to determine if perturbed but realistic meteorological background conditions could maintain Mediterranean as a "dilution" basin through the October to March rainy season on annually recurring basis, and (4) investigating how such conditions might modify important internal and external climatic processes known to be closely related to the dynamical, thermal, and hydrological properties of the basin (e.g., drought frequency over Iberian peninsula, rainfall accumulation within Sahel, alteration of Levantine branch of east-west aligned open thermohaline cell, and modification of warm-salty intermediate flow through Gibraltar straight into North Atlantic).

Smith, Eric A.↗

How Can Future Climate Change Affect the Corn Production System in Nebraska, USA?

The increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns have affected both crop yields and water requirements challenging agricultural systems in sustaining high crop yields and ensuring water and food security. In the present study, we evaluated the impact of climate change on the corn production under irrigated and rainfed cropping systems in Nebraska considering four climate zones until 2100 as a case study for the US Corn Belt. Additionally, suggests ways to reduce the impact of climate change on corn yield and water resources. Five global circulation model datasets from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) interconnected to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), were selected. Three future periods: near (2020–2039), mid (2040–2069), and far future (2070–2100) under SSP226, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios were used to predict the climate changes, crop cycle length, crop yield, and crop water requirement. Additionally, we input annual CO2 concentration scenarios for each SSP scenario to model changes from 2015 to 2100 using the CERES-Maize model. Temperatures are forecasted to rise, precipitation to decline, and crop cycle length to decrease, particularly for SSP370 (up to 49% yield decrease) and SSP585 (up to 67% yield decrease) by 2070–2100. Yields are expected to decline across all scenarios and periods for irrigated and rainfed fields due to the reduction in crop cycle length. Crop water demand is projected to increase, with rainfed systems facing heightened impact due to reduced precipitation. Addressing climate change in Nebraska requires actions like developing new corn varieties to longer the crop season, transitioning to efficient irrigation systems, improving irrigation management for water and food security, and reducing the risk of conflicts over its use. These results open possibilities for discussion about the actions that can be taken to cope with climate change and guarantee water and food security in the US Corn Belt.

CMIP6↗

Three Years of Airborne Observations During NASA Activate: A Statistical Summary of Chemical, Optical, and Microphysical Aerosol Properties Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean

Airborne observations are critical to understanding Earth’s climate system and surface-level air quality by providing both spatial and vertical information that is not possible through ground measurement networks or satellite observations. Airborne platforms allow assessments of long-range transport, vertical redistribution, boundary-layer dynamics, and cloud-aerosol-interactions that are critical to model evaluation and satellite validation. Still, the high cost and effort of aircraft operations can limit measurement campaigns to short, focused time periods. Multiple deployments are often necessary for seasonal comparisons, and results can be limited if target phenomenon are infrequent. Subsequent analyses typically focus on case studies, especially if deployment conditions are climatologically anomalous. The NASA ACTIVATE (Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment) mission was designed to overcome these limitations by operating semi-continuously over multiple months during multiple seasons. Flight plans were intentionally simple, repetitive, and systematic to provide a statistically robust dataset that could be utilized similarly to a ground-network. Here, we present an overview of three years (2020-2022) of aerosol measurements from the NASA HU-25 Falcon aircraft supporting the ACTIVATE mission. Data from 179 flights were considered, the majority of which were based at NASA Langley Research Center and flown locally over the Wester North Atlantic Ocean just east of Hampton, VA, USA. Airmass characteristics tended to transition from continental outflow near the coast to mostly marine over the open ocean. Seasonal, diurnal, spatial, and vertical trends in aerosol microphysical, optical, and chemical properties are discussed in the context of synoptic scale meteorology. Statistical benefits of the ACTIVATE sampling strategy are discussed with regard to future model evaluation.

Luke D Ziemba↗

Educational and Scientific Applications of Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA) is a web-based information system designed for the climate modeling and model analysis community to analyze climate data from models and observations. CMDA provides tools to diagnostically analyze climate data for model validation and improvement, and to systematically manage analysis provenance for sharing results with other investigators. CMDA utilizes cloud computing resources, multi-threading computing, machine-learning algorithms, web service technologies, and provenance-supporting technologies to address technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. As CMDA technology and infrastructure have matured, we have developed the educational and scientific applications of CMDA. Educationally, CMDA supported the summer school of the JPL Center for Climate Sciences in 2014, 2015, and 2016. In the summer school, the students work on group research projects where CMDA provide datasets, analysis tools, and provenance support utility tools. Each student is assigned to a virtual machine with CMDA installed in Amazon Web Services. Scientifically, we have developed several science use cases of CMDA covering various topics, datasets, and analysis types. Each of the science use cases is described in terms of a scientific goal, datasets used, the analysis tools used, scientific results discovered, an analysis result such as output plots and data files, and a link to the corresponding analysis service call with all the input arguments filled.

Bao, Qihao↗

Seasonal Forecasting Skill for the High Mountain Asia Region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorological relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks-to-months is an area of active research and development. NASA’s 15 Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1-3 month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian Subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981-2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2-m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and 20 Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are 25 evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system’s ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

GEOS↗

Evaluation of High-Resolution Ocean Surface Vector Winds Measured by QuikSCAT Scatterometer in Coastal Regions

The SeaWinds scatterometer onboard QuikSCAT covers approximately 90% of the global ocean under clear and cloudy condition in 24 h, and the standard data product has 25-km spatial resolution. Such spatial resolution is not sufficient to resolve small-scale processes, especially in coastal oceans. Based on range-compressed normalized backscatter and a modified wind retrieval algorithm, a coastal wind dataset at 12.5-km resolution was produced. Even with larger error, the high-resolution winds, in medium to high strength, would still be useful over coastal ocean. Using measurements from moored buoys from the National Buoy Data Center, the high-resolution QuikSCAT wind data are found to have similar accuracy as standard data in the open ocean. The accuracy of both high- and standard-resolution winds, particularly in wind directions, is found to degrade near shore. The increase in error is likely caused by the inadequacy of the geophysical model function/ambiguity removal scheme in addressing coastal conditions and light winds situations. The modified algorithm helps to bring the directional accuracy of the high-resolution winds to the accuracy of the standard-resolution winds in near-shore regions, particularly in the nadir and far zones across the satellite track.

scatterometer↗

Extreme Lake-Effect Snow from a GPM Microwave Imager Perspective: Observational Analysis and Precipitation Retrieval Evaluation

This study focuses on the ability of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) passive microwave sensors to detect and provide quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) for extreme lake-effect snowfall events over the United States lower Great Lakes region. GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) high frequency channels can clearly detect intense shallow convective snowfall events. However, GMI Goddard PROfiling (GPROF) QPE retrievals produce inconsistent results when compared against the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) ground-based radar reference dataset. While GPROF retrievals adequately capture intense snowfall rates and spatial patterns of one event, GPROF systematically underestimates intense snowfall rates in another event. Furthermore, GPROF produces abundant light snowfall rates that do not conform with MRMS observations. Ad-hoc precipitation rate thresholds are suggested to partially mitigate GPROF’s overproduction of light snowfall rates. The sensitivity and retrieval efficiency of GPROF to key parameters (2-meter temperature, total precipitable water, and background surface type) used to constrain the GPROF a-priori retrieval database are investigated. Results demonstrate that typical lake-effect snow environmental and surface conditions, especially coastal surfaces, are underpopulated in the database and adversely affect GPROF retrievals. For the two presented case studies, using snow cover a-priori database in the locations of originally deemed as coastline improves retrieval. This study suggests that it is particularly important to have more accurate GPROF surface classifications and better representativeness of the a-priori databases to improve intense lake-effect snow detection and retrieval performance.

Lisa Milani↗

Using Machine Learning to Infer Material Properties of Debris Fragments from X-ray Images in the DebriSat Project

The DebriSat project is a collaboration effort with the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command Center, The Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida. To date, over 200,000 fragments from this ground-based, hypervelocity impact experiment have been collected, and processing is underway to determine their physical characteristics, such as material, shape, color, characteristic length, and average cross-sectional area. The x-ray process is primarily used to identify the location of the fragments and estimated size for extraction, so that these physical characteristics can be assessed. This paper proposes a machine learning-based approach to characterize materials from x-ray images of debris fragments embedded in soft-catch foam used in the DebriSat project. The novel methodology discussed in this paper will highlight the use of x-ray imagery data to characterize these fragments without extraction or a human-in-the-loop. Both supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques are utilized with this approach to infer the physical parameters of the fragments embedded in the soft-catch foam panels used in the impact experiment based on x-ray images of the foam panels. Additionally, 3D reconstructions of the extracted fragments are created with images taken from two different angles using the structure from motion (SfM) method. The characteristic lengths and shape from the 3D reconstruction, alongside the physical characteristics of the debris, are used in the inference of the material type. To develop and test the approach, a dataset of x-ray images of debris fragments of varying sizes and materials is collected. Supervised learning methods such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), support vector machines (SVM), decision trees, and random forest classifiers are used due to the high-dimensional feature spaces of the debris and nonlinear decision boundaries for material categorization. Given the limited pre-labeled data of embedded debris materials smaller than 10 mm, unsupervised machine learning techniques such as clustering algorithms and autoencoders are used, in addition to supervised learning methods. The clustering algorithms group similar fragments together based on their physical properties, and autoencoders reduce the dimensionality of the x ray images and extract relevant features. The performance of the proposed approach's is analyzed using a range of statistical methods, including confusion matrices, receiver operating characteristic curves, and precision-recall curves. The results are compared with those obtained using a baseline approach that relies on manual identification and classification of debris fragments. To evaluate the effectiveness of different machine learning methods, statistical tests such as t-tests, ANOVA, and cross-validation are performed, comparing the performance of CNNs, SVMs, clustering algorithms, and autoencoders. Additional analysis needs to be conducted to identify any sources of bias or variability that may affect the results, such as variations in imaging conditions or fragmentation patterns. Other topics explored are limitations, refinements, and the potential use of semi-supervised learning techniques, such as self-training to label unlabeled datasets and co-training using x-ray images taken from two different angles as two different models.

Saik Anam Siam↗