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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Performance Verification of the EXtreme PREcision Spectrograph

The EXtreme PREcision Spectrograph (EXPRES) is a new Doppler spectrograph designed to reach a radial-velocity measurement precision sufficient to detect Earth-like exoplanets orbiting nearby, bright stars. We report on extensive laboratory testing and on-sky observations to quantitatively assess the instrumental radial-velocity measurement precision of EXPRES, with a focused discussion of individual terms in the instrument error budget. We find that EXPRES can reach a single-measurement instrument calibration precision better than 10 cm s{sup −1}, not including photon noise from stellar observations. We also report on the performance of the various environmental, mechanical, and optical subsystems of EXPRES, assessing any contributions to radial-velocity error. For atmospheric and telescope related effects, this includes the fast tip-tilt guiding system, atmospheric dispersion compensation, and the chromatic exposure meter. For instrument calibration, this includes the laser fRequency comb (LFC), flat-field light source, CCD detector, and effects in the optical fibers. Modal noise is mitigated to a negligible level via a chaotic fiber agitator, which is especially important for wavelength calibration with the LFC. Regarding detector effects, we empirically assess the impact on the radial-velocity precision due to pixel-position nonuniformities and charge transfer inefficiency (CTI). EXPRES has begun its science survey to discover exoplanets orbiting G-dwarf and K-dwarf stars, in addition to transit spectroscopy and measurements of the Rossiter–McLaughlin effect.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The imprint of cosmic voids from the DESI Legacy Survey DR9 Luminous Red Galaxies in the Planck 2018 lensing map through spectroscopically calibrated mocks

The cross-correlation of cosmic voids with the lensing convergence (κ) map of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) fluctuations provides a powerful tool to refine our understanding of the current cosmological model. However, several studies have reported a moderate tension (up to ∼2σ) between the lensing imprint of cosmic voids on the observed CMB and the ΛCDM signal predicted by simulations. To address this “lensing-is-low” tension and to obtain new, precise measurements of the signal, we exploit the large DESI Legacy Survey Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) data set, covering approximately 19 500 deg 2 of the sky and including about 10 million LRGs at z < 1.05. Our ΛCDM template was created using the Buzzard mocks, which we specifically calibrated to match the clustering properties of the observed galaxy sample by exploiting more than one million DESI spectra. We identified our catalogs of 3D voids in the range 0.35 < z < 0.95 and cross-correlated them through a stacking methodology, dividing the sample into bins according to the redshift and λv values of the voids. For the full void sample, we report a 14σ detection of the lensing signal, with A κ = 1.016 ± 0.054, which increases to 17σ when considering the void-in-void (A κ = 0.944 ± 0.064) and the void-in-cloud (A κ = 0.975 ± 0.060) populations individually, the highest detection significance for studies of this kind. We observe a full agreement between observations and ΛCDM mocks across all redshift bins, sky regions, and void populations considered. In addition to these findings, our analysis highlights the importance of accurately matching sparseness and redshift error distributions between mocks and observations, as well as the role of λ v in enhancing the signal-to-noise ratio through void population discrimination.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wavelength Dependence of Activity-induced Photometric Variations for Young Cool Stars in Hyades

We investigate photometric variations due to stellar activity that induce systematic radial-velocity errors (so-called “jitter”) for the four targets in the Hyades open cluster observed by the K2 mission (EPIC 210721261, EPIC 210923016, EPIC 247122957, and EPIC 247783757). Applying Gaussian process regressions to the K2 light curves and the near-infrared (NIR) light curves observed with the IRSF 1.4 m telescope, we derive the wavelength dependences of the photometric signals due to stellar activity. To estimate the temporal variations in the photometric variability amplitudes between the two observation periods of K2 and IRSF, separated by more than 2 yr, we analyze a number of K2 targets in Hyades that have also been observed in Campaigns 4 and 13 and find a representative variation rate over 2 yr of 38% ± 71%. Taking this temporal variation into account, we constrain projected sizes and temperature contrast properties of the starspots in the stellar photosphere to be approximately 10% and 0.95%, respectively. These starspot properties can induce relatively large differences in the variability amplitude over different observational passbands, and we find that radial-velocity jitter may be more suppressed in the NIR than previously expected. Our result supports profits of ongoing exoplanet search projects that are attempting to detect or confirm young planets in open clusters via radial-velocity measurements in the NIR.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the statistics of extreme precipitation over Eastern Africa

We report the Eastern Africa region experiences frequent extreme precipitation events that can cause destruction of property and environment, and loss of lives. Thus, there is a need to understand how these events may change in the future and how well the global climate models that are used to make projections can simulate precipitation extremes in this region before they can be used in downscaling or flood and drought impact assessment studies. In this work, we evaluated the ability of sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to simulate present-day precipitation extremes over the Eastern Africa region during the two rainy seasons (March–May and September–November). We used nine extreme precipitation indices (including seven (one) indices of wet (dry) extremes) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The CMIP6 models were evaluated against two gridded observation datasets: Global Precipitation Climatology Project One-Degree Daily Dataset and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42. Three model performance metrics (percentage bias, normalized root-mean-square error, and pattern correlation coefficient) were employed to further assess the strengths and weakness of the models. Our results show that the multi-model ensemble mean generally provides a better representation of observed precipitation and related extremes compared to individual models when considering all metrics and seasons. Several consistent biases are evident across CMIP6 models, which tend to overestimate the total-wet day precipitation and consecutive wet days, and underestimate very wet days and maximum 5-day precipitation in both seasons. Furthermore, no single model consistently performs best, model performance varies with the season and index under consideration and is generally independent of horizontal resolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep neural network uncertainty quantification for LArTPC reconstruction

We evaluate uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for deep learning applied to liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) physics analysis tasks. As deep learning applications enter widespread usage among physics data analysis, neural networks with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainty and robust performance against overconfidence and out-of-distribution (OOD) samples are critical for their full deployment in analyzing experimental data. While numerous UQ methods have been tested on simple datasets, performance evaluations for more complex tasks and datasets are scarce. Here we assess the application of selected deep learning UQ methods on the task of particle classification using the PiLArNet monte carlo 3D LArTPC point cloud dataset. We observe that UQ methods not only allow for better rejection of prediction mistakes and OOD detection, but also generally achieve higher overall accuracy across different task settings. We assess the precision of uncertainty quantification using different evaluation metrics, such as distributional separation of prediction entropy across correctly and incorrectly identified samples, receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs), and expected calibration error from observed empirical accuracy. We conclude that ensembling methods can obtain well calibrated classification probabilities and generally perform better than other existing methods in deep learning UQ literature.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Correction and calibration of atmospheric impact observations in GOES GLM data

The Earth's atmosphere is impacted daily by both meteoroids and artificial objects. Calibrated observations of the emitted light at sufficiently high sampling rates can enable or improve the estimation of impactor attributes such as size, cohesion, trajectory, and composition, but are difficult to obtain owing to the unpredictability, brevity, and high dynamic (brightness) range of impacts. Ground-based camera systems have successfully monitored small regions of the atmosphere at video frame rates and with limited radiometric capabilities, but most impacts occur over the 70% of the Earth's surface covered by water and are therefore missed by these networks. The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) instruments aboard Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites 16 and 17 provide near-hemispherical coverage at 500 frames per second. These data have been shown to contain the signatures of many independently confirmed impacts, often from both viewing angles simultaneously, and constitute an observational resource that is currently unparalleled in the public domain. NASA's Asteroid Threat Assessment Project has implemented an automated impact detection pipeline that processes data from GLM daily. Given a detected impact, the GLM data contain a wealth of information for use in quantitative follow-up analyses. However, impact events differ from lightning in ways that violate key assumptions built into GLM's design. The result is that GLM's onboard processing introduces errors into pixel observations of impact events and the calibrated energies near the periphery of the detector may be substantially overestimated. We present methods for mitigating these and other issues to produce a data product more suitable for impact analyses than the existing GLM lightning product.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

5ω Optical Thomson Scattering Report

The 5ω Optical Thomson Scattering system on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) is a diagnostic designed to measure temporally and spatially resolved plasma conditions in Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) Hohlraums. The system was proposed in 2014 and a phased approach to implementation was developed. In phase one the collection system was designed, built, and fielded on the NIF to be used for 3ω Thomson scattering measurements and background measurements near 211 nm (5ω. The initial commissioning experiment for the collection system was completed in Oct. 2016. Commissioning of the collection system continued through 2017 and the system is now fielded for a range of user experiments and regularly produces publication quality data. A dedicated 5ω probe laser was designed and built to allow Thomson scattering measurements in the presence of 2 MJ of 3ω drive energy. Due to scattered light (spectral reflections, laser-plasma instabilities, and unconverted drive energy) from the 3w drive lasers typical wavelengths (2ω and 4ω) fielded at other laser facilities like the Nova Laser Facility and the Omega Laser Facility were unable to meeting the signal to background requirements in design studies. A 10 Joule 5ω probe was proposed as a solution that met requirements. This 10 Joule laser was more energetic than previously fielded 5w lasers by 2-3 orders of magnitude. As part of a risk reduction plan, phase two of the project was to develop a 1 Joule, 5ω laser to demonstrate conversion efficiency >20% from 1ω to 5ω and make initial Thomson scattering measurements in the first few nanoseconds of an ICF laser pulse. Initial tests of the 5w conversion were completed at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics (LLE) and produced record 5ω energies. Based on these results from LLE, a 1 Joule, 5w laser system was designed for the NIF in 2018 and commissioning began in 2019. Commissioning of the 5ω laser system continued through 2023 and was eventually paused in Q1 of FY24 due to completing resource constraints. Commissioning of the 5w laser system proved incredibly challenging. Multiple issues were identified during commissioning and resolved, but issues remain. Currently there is not a clear understanding of why 5ω scattered has not been detected on the OTS collection system. Based on offline measurements, calculations, and preshot measurements the system appears to meet all requirements. Potential target physics issues have been investigated and do not appear to be an issue. The current hypothesis is that there is an error in one or more aspects of the offline testing not translating to expected performance when the system is fielded on the NIF. Additional full system testing in-situ utilizing the complete OTS system and NIF target chamber center time is needed to further test potential failure modes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detection of Outliers in LiDAR Data Acquired by Multiple Platforms over Sorghum and Maize

High-resolution point cloud data acquired with a laser scanner from any platform contain random noise and outliers. Therefore, outlier detection in LiDAR data is often necessary prior to analysis. Applications in agriculture are particularly challenging, as there is typically no prior knowledge of the statistical distribution of points, plant complexity, and local point densities, which are crop-dependent. The goals of this study were first to investigate approaches to minimize the impact of outliers on LiDAR acquired over agricultural row crops, and specifically for sorghum and maize breeding experiments, by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a wheel-based ground platform; second, to evaluate the impact of existing outliers in the datasets on leaf area index (LAI) prediction using LiDAR data. Two methods were investigated to detect and remove the outliers from the plant datasets. The first was based on surface fitting to noisy point cloud data via normal and curvature estimation in a local neighborhood. The second utilized the PointCleanNet deep learning framework. Both methods were applied to individual plants and field-based datasets. To evaluate the method, an F-score was calculated for synthetic data in the controlled conditions, and LAI, the variable being predicted, was computed both before and after outlier removal for both scenarios. Results indicate that the deep learning method for outlier detection is more robust than the geometric approach to changes in point densities, level of noise, and shapes. The prediction of LAI was also improved for the wheel-based vehicle data based on the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the residuals before and after the removal of outliers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

MODELING AND PARAMETRIC STUDY OF END-GAS AUTOIGNITION TO ALLOW THE REALIZATION OF ULTRA-LOW EMISSIONS, HIGH-EFFICIENCY HEAVY-DUTY SPARK-IGNITED NATURAL GAS ENGINES

Engine knock and misfire are barriers to pathways leading to high-efficiency Spark-Ignited (SI) Natural Gas (NG) engines. The general tendency to knock is highly dependent on engine operating conditions and the fuel reactivity. The problem is further complicated by the low emission limits and the wide range of chemical reactivity in pipeline-quality natural gas. Depending on the region and the source of the natural gas, its reactivity, described by its Methane Number (MN), which is analogous to the Octane Number for liquid SI fuels, can span from 65 to 95. In order to realize diesel-like efficiencies, SI NG engines must be designed to operate at high Brake Mean Effective Pressures (BMEP), near or beyond knock limits, over a wide range of fuel reactivity. This requires a deep understanding of the combustion-engine interactions pertaining to flame propagation and End-Gas Autoignition (EGAI), i.e., the autoignition of the unburned gas (end gas) ahead of the flame front. However, EGAI, if controlled, provides an opportunity to increase SI NG engine efficiency by increasing the combustion rate and the total fraction of burned fuel, mitigating the effects of the slow flame speeds characteristic of natural gas fuels, which generally reduce BMEP and increase unburned hydrocarbon emissions. For this reason, to realize diesel-like efficiencies and ultra-low emissions on SI NG engines, this work proposes the study of the main parameters influencing the modeling and prediction of NG EGAI to allow for its control. In this work, a novel EGAI detection and onset determination method was developed to reliably quantify EGAI for data analysis and engine control. The new method allowed the prediction of EGAI on SI NG engines without the need to use engine- and operating-condition-dependent thresholds and reduced the error in quantifying the fraction of the total energy released by the EGAI event by up to 40%pts. One- and three-dimensional engine models were then developed to study the engine/fuel interactions that lead to NG EGAI and its performance benefits. These models, although having decent agreement with experimental data, showed the need to account for NOx chemistry when predicting NG EGAI due to a consistently later prediction of the EGAI onset (~1.65 crank-angle degrees) and thus, a new reduced chemical mechanism for real NG fuels was developed containing NOx chemistry. The new reduced mechanism improved the EGAI onset prediction agreement to within ±0.5 crank-angle degrees and decreased simulation time during combustion by nearly 50% when using the further reduced AREIS50NOx chemical mechanism. These models were then used to study the role of NG composition on EGAI, evaluate the engine/fuel interactions leading to NG EGAI, and perform engine optimization while leveraging EGAI to increase thermal efficiency. Piston design optimization combined with a Controlled EGAI (C-EGAI) combustion mode allowed a Heavy-Duty (HD) SI NG engine to operate at diesel-like efficiencies, i.e., Brake Thermal Efficiency (BTE) ≥44%. Experimental and modeling data analysis revealed that earlier and faster heat release increases combustion efficiency by an average of 1%pts, increases work transferred to the piston resulting in a decrease in exhaust losses by 50% depending on the engine operating condition while slightly increasing heat losses. Finally, the simulation results revealed an opportunity to further enhance the BTE (up to 50%) by enabling C-EGAI combustion at leaner conditions, λ=1.4-1.6.

Bestel, Diego Bernardi↗
DOE OSTI2022

Heat pulse testing at monitoring wells to estimate subsurface fluid velocities in geological CO 2 storage

Monitoring the injected CO 2 during geological CO 2 storage (GCS) is essential to assure containment and identify CO 2 leakage. Here in this work, a new approach is introduced to estimate the evolution of the downhole fluid velocity at a monitoring well and identify CO 2 arrival time using in-well heat pulse/tracer test. The proposed technique involves using a downhole heater to generate a series of heat pulses and measuring their corresponding temperature response. The surface temperature of the downhole heater is controlled by the supplied electrical power and the heat loss by convection to the surroundings. Convective heat transfer is well described using Newton's law of cooling in which the temperature difference between the heater and the surrounding fluids drives the heat transfer, for which the convection heat transfer coefficient (h) controls the magnitude of heat loss. Among various factors that control h, it depends on the type of the flowing fluid and its velocity. Through analyzing the measured temperature at different heat pulses, the changes in h - due to mobilization of the in-situ brine or CO 2 arrival - can be estimated. Consequently, the velocity of the flowing fluid across the heater can be obtained. Since heat transfer by convection is sensitive to the type of the surrounding fluid, intrusion of CO 2 can be detected from the relatively higher surface temperature obtained at CO 2 arrival. Churchill and Bernstein (1977)'s correlation is adopted to estimate the change of fluid velocity in terms of the change in h. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed technique, the results are applied and validated against those of COMSOL Multiphysics simulation tool for single-phase brine (before CO 2 arrival) and single-phase CO 2 (after CO 2 arrival). The observed temperature heating is sensitive to the flowing fluid velocity and fluid type. The temperature signal observed at CO 2 arrival is large and easily detectable using temperature monitoring tool which provides reliable indication for tracking CO 2 arrival at monitoring wells compared with passive temperature monitoring. The results obtained using the proposed technique agree very well with the numerical results obtained from the simulation tool with a maximum estimation error of 7 percent.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of Telescope Transmission Using a Collimated Beam Projector

With the increasingly large number of Type Ia supernova being detected by current-generation survey telescopes, and even more expected with the upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, the precision of cosmological measurements will become limited by systematic uncertainties in flux calibration rather than statistical noise. One major source of systematic error in determining SNe Ia color evolution (needed for distance estimation) is uncertainty in telescope transmission, both within and between surveys. We introduce here the Collimated Beam Projector (CBP), which is meant to measure a telescope transmission with collimated light. The collimated beam more closely mimics a stellar wave front as compared to flat-field-based instruments, allowing for more precise handling of systematic errors such as those from ghosting and filter angle-of-incidence dependence. As a proof of concept, we present CBP measurements of the StarDICE prototype telescope, achieving a standard (1σ) uncertainty of 3% on average over the full wavelength range measured with a single beam illumination.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Abatement of ionizing radiation for superconducting quantum devices

Ionizing radiation has been shown to reduce the performance of superconducting quantum circuits. In this report, we evaluate the expected contributions of different sources of ambient radioactivity for typical superconducting qubit experiment platforms. Our assessment of radioactivity inside a typical cryostat highlights the importance of selecting appropriate materials for the experiment components nearest to qubit devices, such as packaging and electrical interconnects. We present a shallow underground facility (30-meter water equivalent) to reduce the flux of cosmic rays and a lead shielded cryostat to abate the naturally occurring radiogenic gamma-ray flux in the laboratory environment. We predict that superconducting qubit devices operated in this facility could experience a reduced rate of correlated multi-qubit errors by a factor of approximately 20 relative to the rate in a typical above-ground, unshielded facility. Finally, we outline overall design improvements that would be required to further reduce the residual ionizing radiation rate, down to the limit of current generation direct detection dark matter experiments.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

The miniJPAS survey quasar selection – II. Machine learning classification with photometric measurements and uncertainties

Astrophysical surveys rely heavily on the classification of sources as stars, galaxies, or quasars from multiband photometry. Surveys in narrow-band filters allow for greater discriminatory power, but the variety of different types and redshifts of the objects present a challenge to standard template-based methods. In this work, which is part of a larger effort that aims at building a catalogue of quasars from the miniJPAS survey, we present a machine learning-based method that employs convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to classify point-like sources including the information in the measurement errors. We validate our methods using data from the miniJPAS survey, a proof-of-concept project of the Javalambre Physics of the Accelerating Universe Astrophysical Survey (J-PAS) collaboration covering ∼1 deg 2 of the northern sky using the 56 narrow-band filters of the J-PAS survey. Due to the scarcity of real data, we trained our algorithms using mocks that were purpose-built to reproduce the distributions of different types of objects that we expect to find in the miniJPAS survey, as well as the properties of the real observations in terms of signal and noise. We compare the performance of the CNNs with other well-established machine learning classification methods based on decision trees, finding that the CNNs improve the classification when the measurement errors are provided as inputs. The predicted distribution of objects in miniJPAS is consistent with the putative luminosity functions of stars, quasars, and unresolved galaxies. Our results are a proof of concept for the idea that the J-PAS survey will be able to detect unprecedented numbers of quasars with high confidence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radar Derived Rainfall and Rain Gauge Measurements at SRS

Over the years rainfall data for the Savannah River Site has been obtained from ground level measurements made by rain gauges. These instruments have inherent errors or biases that can impact the measured rainfall totals but are assumed as ground truth for most climatological and weather applications. With the development of weather radar technologies, various methods to derive rainfall totals from radar reflectivity values have been developed and have continued to improve. The Z-R relationship, which uses an exponential relationship to estimate rainfall rate based on radar reflectivity values, provides estimates of rainfall amounts (Z-R Level III) for locations within the radar’s detection range. The recently developed Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) dataset combines reflectivity-based estimates using the Z-R relationship with a network of gauges and other rainfall estimates to produce a refined set of precipitation estimates for each grid point within its domain. Comparisons were done between gauge observations and radar estimates for various SRS locations to assess whether radar derived estimates are representative of rainfall measurements at the site. Results obtained show good agreement between radar derived amounts and ground measurements, with MRMS showing stronger correlations and lower spread than Z-R Level III estimates. Outliers and errors observed appear to be related to hydrometeor classification schemes. In general, MRMS proved to provide sufficiently representative estimates of daily rainfall amounts to replace existing SRS rain gauge measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning Techniques for Data Reduction of Climate Applications

Scientists conduct large-scale simulations to compute derived quantities-of-interest (QoI) from primary data. Often, QoI are linked to specific features, regions, or time intervals, such that data can be adaptively reduced without compromising the integrity of QoI. For many spatiotemporal applications, these QoI are binary in nature and represent presence or absence of a physical phenomenon. We present a pipelined compression approach that first uses neural-network-based techniques to derive regions where QoI are highly likely to be present. Then, we employ a Guaranteed Autoencoder (GAE) to compress data with differential error bounds. GAE uses QoI information to apply low-error compression to only these regions. This results in overall high compression ratios while still achieving downstream goals of simulation or data collections. Experimental results are presented for climate data generated from the E3SM Simulation model for downstream quantities such as tropical cyclone and atmospheric river detection and tracking. These results show that our approach is superior to comparable methods in the literature.

Li, Xiao [University of Florida]↗
DOE OSTI2020

An augmented Lagrangian filter method

Here, we introduce a filter mechanism to enforce convergence for augmented Lagrangian methods for nonlinear programming. In contrast to traditional augmented Lagrangian methods, our approach does not require the use of forcing sequences that drive the first-order error to zero. Instead, we employ a filter to drive the optimality measures to zero. Our algorithm is flexible in the sense that it allows for equality-constrained quadratic programming steps to accelerate local convergence. We also include a feasibility restoration phase that allows fast detection of infeasible problems. We provide a convergence proof that shows that our algorithm converges to first-order stationary points. We provide preliminary numerical results that demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observations of greenhouse gases as climate indicators

Humans have significantly altered the energy balance of the Earth’s climate system mainly not only by extracting and burning fossil fuels but also by altering the biosphere and using halocarbons. The 3rd US National Climate Assessment pointed to a need for a system of indicators of climate and global change based on long-term data that could be used to support assessments and this led to the development of the National Climate Indicators System (NCIS). Here we identify a representative set of key atmospheric indicators of changes in atmospheric radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases (GHGs), and we evaluate atmospheric composition measurements, including non-CO<:sub>2 GHGs for use as climate change indicators in support of the US National Climate Assessment. GHG abundances and their changes over time can provide valuable information on the success of climate mitigation policies, as well as insights into possible carbon-climate feedback processes that may ultimately affect the success of those policies. To ensure that reliable information for assessing GHG emission changes can be provided on policy-relevant scales, expanded observational efforts are needed. Furthermore, the ability to detect trends resulting from changing emissions requires a commitment to supporting long-term observations. Long-term measurements of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and clouds and related climate indicators used with a dimming/brightening index could provide a foundation for quantifying forcing and its attribution and reducing error in existing indicators that do not account for complicated cloud processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Navigating the Noise: Bringing Clarity to ML Parameterization Design With O $\boldsymbol{\mathcal{O}}$(100) Ensembles

Abstract Machine‐learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid processes (here of turbulence, convection, and radiation) may one day replace conventional parameterizations by emulating high‐resolution physics without the cost of explicit simulation. However, uncertainty about the relationship between offline and online performance (i.e., when integrated with a large‐scale general circulation model) hinders their development. Much of this uncertainty stems from limited sampling of the noisy, emergent effects of upstream ML design decisions on downstream online hybrid simulation. Our work rectifies the sampling issue via the construction of a semi‐automated, end‐to‐end pipeline for size ensembles of hybrid simulations, revealing important nuances in how systematic reductions in offline error manifest in changes to online error and online stability. For example, removing dropout and switching from a Mean Squared Error to a Mean Absolute Error loss both reduce offline error, but they have opposite effects on online error and online stability. Other design decisions, like incorporating memory, converting moisture input from specific humidity to relative humidity, using batch normalization, and training on multiple climates do not come with any such compromises. Finally, we show that ensemble sizes of may be necessary to reliably detect causally relevant differences online. By enabling rapid online experimentation at scale, we can empirically settle debates regarding subgrid ML parameterization design that would have otherwise remained unresolved in the noise.

Lin, Jerry [Department of Earth System Sciences Un↗