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At least 451 records · Page 25

Budgets of divergent and rotational kinetic energy during two periods of intense convection

The derivations of the energy budget equations for divergent and rotational components of kinetic energy are provided. The intense convection periods studied are: (1) synoptic scale data of 3 or 6 hour intervals and (2) mesoalphascale data every 3 hours. Composite energies and averaged budgets for the periods are presented; the effects of random data errors on derived energy parameters is investigated. The divergent kinetic energy and rotational kinetic energy budgets are compared; good correlation of the data is observed. The kinetic energies and budget terms increase with convective development; however, the conversion of the divergent and rotational energies are opposite.

Buechler, D. E.↗

Intercomparison of scanner and nonscanner measurements for the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment

The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment nonscanner measurements are simulated with the scanner measurements. The error in simulating a single measurement is 1 percent for longwave and 3 percent for shortwave. Errors in simulating the average daily measurements are half these amounts. Four months of Earth Radiation Budget Satellite measurements were analyzed. The results show that changing sun geometry affects the accuracy of the nonscanner measurements. The medium field show that changing sun geometry affects the accuracy of the nonscanner measurements. The medium field of view (MFOV) total channel and scanner agree to within 2 percent on average. The wide field of view (WFOV) total channel and scanner agree to within 1 percent. For the shortwave channels, the agreement with the scanner is 2 percent for the MFOV and 2.5 percent for the WFOV.

Green, Richard N.↗

Comparative study of 0° X-cut and Y + 36°-cut lithium niobate high-voltage sensing

A comparison study between Y + 36° and 0° X-cut lithium niobate (LiNbO{sub 3}) was performed to evaluate the influence of crystal cut on the acoustic propagation to realize a piezoelectric high-voltage sensor. The acoustic time-of-flight for each crystal cut was measured when applying direct current (DC), alternating current (AC), and pulsed voltages. Results show that the voltage-induced shift in the acoustic wave propagation time scaled quadratically with voltage for DC and AC voltages applied to X-cut crystals. For the Y + 36° crystal, the voltage-induced shift scales linearly with DC voltages and quadratically with AC voltages. When applying 5 μs voltage pulses to both crystals, the voltage-induced shift scaled linearly with voltage. For the Y + 36° cut, the voltage-induced shift from applying DC voltages ranged from 10 to 54 ps and 35 to 778 ps for AC voltages at 640 V over the frequency range of 100 Hz–100 kHz. Using the same conditions as the Y + 36° cut, the 0° X-cut crystal sensed a shift of 10–273 ps for DC voltages and 189–813 ps for AC voltage application. For 5 μs voltage pulses, the 0° X-cut crystal sensed a voltage induced shift of 0.250–2 ns and the Y + 36°-cut crystal sensed a time shift of 0.115–1.6 ns. This suggests a frequency sensitive response to voltage where the influence of the crystal cut was not a significant contributor under DC, AC, or pulsed voltage conditions. The measured DC data were compared to a 1-D impedance matrix model where the predicted incremental length changed as a function of voltage. When the voltage source error was eliminated through physical modeling from the uncertainty budget, the combined uncertainty of the sensor (within a 95% confidence interval) decreased to 0.0033% using a Y + 36°-cut crystal and 0.0032% using an X-cut crystal for all the voltage conditions used in this experiment.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Context-aware learning of hierarchies of low-fidelity models for multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods leverage low-fidelity and surrogate models for variance reduction to make tractable uncertainty quantification even when numerically simulating the physical systems of interest with high-fidelity models is computationally expensive. This work proposes a context-aware multi-fidelity Monte Carlo method that optimally balances the costs of training low-fidelity models with the costs of Monte Carlo sampling. It generalizes the previously developed context-aware bi-fidelity Monte Carlo method to hierarchies of multiple models and to more general types of low-fidelity models. When training low-fidelity models, the proposed approach takes into account the context in which the learned low-fidelity models will be used, namely for variance reduction in Monte Carlo estimation, which allows it to find optimal trade-offs between training and sampling to minimize upper bounds of the mean-squared errors of the estimators for given computational budgets. This is in stark contrast to traditional surrogate modeling and model reduction techniques that construct low-fidelity models with the primary goal of approximating well the high-fidelity model outputs and typically ignore the context in which the learned models will be used in upstream tasks. Further, the proposed context-aware multi-fidelity Monte Carlo method applies to hierarchies of a wide range of types of low-fidelity models such as sparse-grid and deep-network models. Numerical experiments with the gyrokinetic simulation code Gene show speedups of up to two orders of magnitude compared to standard estimators when quantifying uncertainties in small-scale fluctuations in confined plasma in fusion reactors. This corresponds to a runtime reduction from 72 days to four hours on one node of the Lonestar6 supercomputer at the Texas Advanced Computing Center.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantification of Physical and Numerical Mixing in a Coastal Ocean Model Using Salinity Variance Budgets

Numerical mixing, the spurious mixing primarily generated by the discretization of advection, is often significant in estuarine and coastal models due to sharp, energetic fronts. In this study, we compare on- and offline estimates of numerical mixing in a submesoscale-resolving realistic simulation of the ocean state over the Texas-Louisiana continental shelf. While offline estimates of numerical mixing differ from online estimates, offline methods may be the only analysis available. This study offers insight into the differences between the on- and offline methods. We use two methods to estimate numerical mixing offline, based on salinity squared $s^2$ and volume-mean salinity variance $s^{\prime^2}$. Numerical mixing estimated from the $s^{\prime^2}$ budget is generally within 60\% of the magnitude for the online method but captures the temporal variability well. However, the $s^2$ budget compares poorly due to larger truncation errors associated with the tendency and advection terms, which can be reduced by increasing the model output frequency. We also investigate the effects of horizontal resolution on numerical mixing using a two-way nested grid. The volume-integrated numerical mixing constitutes 57\% of the bulk physical mixing -- the mixing prescribed by the turbulence closure scheme -- in the coarse model and may exceed the physical mixing by half an order of magnitude. We find that numerical mixing is reduced by 35\% on average in the nested model, less than expected based on scaling of the numerical mixing for an upwind advection scheme, likely due to new dynamical processes that emerge in the nested simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

QAOA for Max-Cut requires hundreds of qubits for quantum speed-up

Computational quantum technologies are entering a new phase in which noisy intermediate-scale quantum computers are available, but are still too small to benefit from active error correction. Even with a finite coherence budget to invest in quantum information processing, noisy devices with about 50 qubits are expected to experimentally demonstrate quantum supremacy in the next few years. Defined in terms of artificial tasks, current proposals for quantum supremacy, even if successful, will not help to facilitate solutions to practical problems. In contrast, we believe that future users of quantum computers are interested in actual applications and that noisy quantum devices may still provide value by approximately solving hard combinatorial problems via hybrid classical-quantum algorithms. To lower bound the size of quantum computers with practical utility, we perform realistic simulations of the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm and conclude that quantum speedup will not be attainable, at least for a representative combinatorial problem, until several hundreds of qubits are available.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Atmospheric energetics as related to cyclogenesis over the eastern United States

A method is presented to investigate the atmospheric energy budget as related to cyclogenesis. Energy budget equations are developed that are shown to be advantageous because the individual terms represent basic physical processes which produce changes in atmospheric energy, and the equations provide a means to study the interaction of the cyclone with the larger scales of motion. The work presented represents an extension of previous studies because all of the terms of the energy budget equations were evaluated throughout the development period of the cyclone. Computations are carried out over a limited atmospheric volume which encompasses the cyclone, and boundary fluxes of energy that were ignored in most previous studies are evaluated. Two examples of cyclogenesis over the eastern United States were chosen for study. One of the cases (1-4 November, 1966) represented an example of vigorous development, while the development in the other case (5-8 December, 1969) was more modest. Objectively analyzed data were used in the evaluation of the energy budget terms in order to minimize computational errors, and an objective analysis scheme is described that insures that all of the resolution contained in the rawinsonde observations is incorporated in the analyses.

West, P. W.↗

Extraction of spectral hemispherical reflectance (albedo) of surfaces from nadir and directional reflectance data

A radiative transfer model is used to investigate how the error of spectral hemispherical reflectance data obtained from nadir reflectance values varies with wavelength, solar zenith angle, leaf area index, and leaf orientation distribution. Several techniques employing multiple off-nadir view angles taken in azimuth planes are found to accurately infer spectral hemispherical reflectances, and to be well suited to sensor systems that scan in a known azimuth plane or view fore and aft in a known azimuth plane. The effects of errors in hemispherical reflectance on terrestrial energy budget and productivity calculations is also considered.

Kimes, D. S.↗

A measurement system for large, complex software programs

This paper describes measurement systems required to forecast, measure, and control activities for large, complex software development and support programs. Initial software cost and quality analysis provides the foundation for meaningful management decisions as a project evolves. In modeling the cost and quality of software systems, the relationship between the functionality, quality, cost, and schedule of the product must be considered. This explicit relationship is dictated by the criticality of the software being developed. This balance between cost and quality is a viable software engineering trade-off throughout the life cycle. Therefore, the ability to accurately estimate the cost and quality of software systems is essential to providing reliable software on time and within budget. Software cost models relate the product error rate to the percent of the project labor that is required for independent verification and validation. The criticality of the software determines which cost model is used to estimate the labor required to develop the software. Software quality models yield an expected error discovery rate based on the software size, criticality, software development environment, and the level of competence of the project and developers with respect to the processes being employed.

Rone, Kyle Y.↗

Reconstructing the Solar VUV Irradiance over the Past 60 Years

The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model of the solar irradiance spectrum from 0.1 to 190 nm at I nm spectral resolution and on a 1-minute time cadence. The goal of FISM is to provide accurate solar spectral irradiances over the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV: 0-200 nm) range as input for ionospheric and thermospheric models, as well as climate studies over 60 years. A brief overview of the FISM model will be given, and also discussed is how the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) will contribute to improving FISM and its accuracies. Results will also be shown quantifying the VUV contributions to the total flare energy budget, and more importantly discuss the increased errors associated by not including flares in the solar energy input to the Earth's system. Concluding the talk will be a discussion of the proxies, and their associated uncertainties, used for solar spectral reconstructions prior to 1947 going back hundreds of years.

Chamberlin, Phillip↗

A Framework for Estimating Global River Discharge From the Surface Water and Ocean Topography Satellite Mission

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will vastly expand measurements of global rivers, providing critical new data sets for both gaged and ungaged basins. SWOT discharge products (available approximately 1 year after launch) will provide discharge for all river that reaches wider than 100 m. In this paper, we describe how SWOT discharge produced and archived by the US and French space agencies will be computed from measurements of river water surface elevation, width, and slope and ancillary data, along with expected discharge accuracy. We present for the first time a complete estimate of the SWOT discharge uncertainty budget, with separate terms for random (standard error) and systematic (bias) uncertainty components in river discharge time series. We expect that discharge uncertainty will be less than 30% for two-thirds of global reaches and will be dominated by bias. Separate river discharge estimates will combine both SWOT and in situ data; these “gage-constrained” discharge estimates can be expected to have lower systematic uncertainty. Temporal variations in river discharge time series will be dominated by random error and are expected to be estimated within 15% for nearly all reaches, allowing accurate inference of event flow dynamics globally, including in ungaged basins. We believe this level of accuracy lays the groundwork for SWOT to enable breakthroughs in global hydrologic science.

Michael Durand↗

Application of Monte-Carlo Analyses for the Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) Mission

The Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) is the third launch in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) a Medium Class Explorers (MIDEX) program. MAP will measure, in greater detail, the cosmic microwave background radiation from an orbit about the Sun-Earth-Moon L2 Lagrangian point. Maneuvers will be required to transition MAP from it's initial highly elliptical orbit to a lunar encounter which will provide the remaining energy to send MAP out to a lissajous orbit about L2. Monte-Carlo analysis methods were used to evaluate the potential maneuver error sources and determine their effect of the fixed MAP propellant budget. This paper will discuss the results of the analyses on three separate phases of the MAP mission - recovering from launch vehicle errors, responding to phasing loop maneuver errors, and evaluating the effect of maneuver execution errors and orbit determination errors on stationkeeping maneuvers at L2.

Mesarch, Michael A.↗

Spatial Support Vector Regression to Detect Silent Errors in the Exascale Era

As the exascale era approaches, the increasing capacity of high-performance computing (HPC) systems with targeted power and energy budget goals introduces significant challenges in reliability. Silent data corruptions (SDCs) or silent errors are one of the major sources that corrupt the executionresults of HPC applications without being detected. In this work, we explore a low-memory-overhead SDC detector, by leveraging epsilon-insensitive support vector machine regression, to detect SDCs that occur in HPC applications that can be characterized by an impact error bound. The key contributions are three fold. (1) Our design takes spatialfeatures (i.e., neighbouring data values for each data point in a snapshot) into training data, such that little memory overhead (less than 1%) is introduced. (2) We provide an in-depth study on the detection ability and performance with different parameters, and we optimize the detection range carefully. (3) Experiments with eight real-world HPC applications show thatour detector can achieve the detection sensitivity (i.e., recall) up to 99% yet suffer a less than 1% of false positive rate for most cases. Our detector incurs low performance overhead, 5% on average, for all benchmarks studied in the paper. Compared with other state-of-the-art techniques, our detector exhibits the best tradeoff considering the detection ability and overheads.

Subasi, Omer↗

Precise and Scalable Static Program Analysis of NASA Flight Software

Recent NASA mission failures (e.g., Mars Polar Lander and Mars Orbiter) illustrate the importance of having an efficient verification and validation process for such systems. One software error, as simple as it may be, can cause the loss of an expensive mission, or lead to budget overruns and crunched schedules. Unfortunately, traditional verification methods cannot guarantee the absence of errors in software systems. Therefore, we have developed the CGS static program analysis tool, which can exhaustively analyze large C programs. CGS analyzes the source code and identifies statements in which arrays are accessed out of bounds, or, pointers are used outside the memory region they should address. This paper gives a high-level description of CGS and its theoretical foundations. It also reports on the use of CGS on real NASA software systems used in Mars missions (from Mars PathFinder to Mars Exploration Rover) and on the International Space Station.

Brat, G.↗

A Study of Wake Development and Structure in Constant Pressure Gradients

Motivated by the application to high-lift aerodynamics for commercial transport aircraft, a systematic investigation into the response of symmetric/asymmetric planar turbulent wake development to constant adverse, zero, and favorable pressure gradients has been conducted. The experiments are performed at a Reynolds number of 2.4 million based on the chord of the wake generator. A unique feature of this wake study is that the pressure gradients imposed on the wake flow field are held constant. The experimental measurements involve both conventional LDV and hot wire flow field surveys of mean and turbulent quantities including the turbulent kinetic energy budget. In addition, similarity analysis and numerical simulation have also been conducted for this wake study. A focus of the research has been to isolate the effects of both pressure gradient and initial wake asymmetry on the wake development. Experimental results reveal that the pressure gradient has a tremendous influence on the wake development, despite the relatively modest pressure gradients imposed. For a given pressure gradient, the development of an initially asymmetric wake is different from the initially symmetric wake. An explicit similarity solution for the shape parameters of the symmetric wake is obtained and agrees with the experimental results. The turbulent kinetic energy budget measurements of the symmetric wake demonstrate that except for the convection term, the imposed pressure gradient does not change the fundamental flow physics of turbulent kinetic energy transport. Based on the turbulent kinetic energy budget measurements, an approach to correct the bias error associated with the notoriously difficult dissipation estimate is proposed and validated through the comparison of the experimental estimate with a direct numerical simulation result.

Thomas, Flint O.↗

The Effect of Errors in Snow Assimilation on Land Surface Modeling

The accurate portrayal of the hydrological cycle is extremely important in land surface modeling. Central to this effort is the treatment of snow, as errors in the representation of this quantity can impact practically all other modeled quantities through alterations in the water and energy balances. Although land surface model (LSM) simulations can benefit from the assimilation of snow cover and snow depth observations, they can be negatively impacted if such observations contain errors or if a model bias exists in the simulation of surface or soil temperatures. Both cases may lead to excessive melting or growth of snow packs, and to large alterations in both the energy and water balances. Such problems in the snow assimilation process, made evident by the repeated melting and replenishing of snow pack over significant areas of the United States, exists in the Eta Data Assimilation System and is a product of the EDAS system's direct insertion assimilation of snow data. Occurring on a 24 hour cycle, the repeated melting infuses the soil column with a large quantity of water that upsets the hydrological cycle. In an effort to quantify the impacts of such errors in snow assimilation on water and energy budgets, a series of Mosaic LSM simulations were performed over the 12 month period covering October 1998 to October 1999.

Cosgrove, Brian A.↗

The Global Energy Balance of Titan

We report the first measurement of the global emitted power of Titan. Longterm (2004-2010) observations conducted by the Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) onboard Cassini reveal that the total emitted power by Titan is (2.84 plus or minus 0.01) x 10(exp 8) watts. Together with previous measurements of the global absorbed solar power of Titan, the CIRS measurements indicate that the global energy budget of Titan is in equilibrium within measurement error. The uncertainty in the absorbed solar energy places an upper limit on the energy imbalance of 5.3%.

Li, Liming↗