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At least 451 records · Page 25

Long-term basin-scale hydropower expansion under alternative scenarios in a global multisector model

Abstract Hydropower is an important source of renewable, low-carbon energy. Global and regional energy systems, including hydropower, may evolve in a variety of ways under different scenarios. Representation of hydropower in global multisector models is often simplified at the country or regional level. Some models assume a fixed hydropower supply, which is not affected by economic drivers or competition with other electricity generation sources. Here, we implement an endogenous model of hydropower expansion in the Global Change Analysis Model, including a representation of hydropower potential at the river basin level to project future hydropower production across river basins and explore hydropower’s role in evolving energy systems both regionally and globally, under alternative scenarios. Each scenario utilizes the new endogenous hydropower implementation but makes different assumptions about future low-carbon transitions, technology costs, and energy demand. Our study suggests there is ample potential for hydropower to expand in the future to help meet growing demand for electricity driven by socioeconomic growth, electrification of end-use sectors, or other factors. However, hydropower expansion will be constrained by resource availability, resource location, and cost in ways that limit its growth relative to other technologies. As a result, all scenarios show a generally decreasing share of hydroelectricity over total electricity generation at the global level. Hydropower expansion varies across regions, and across basins within regions, due to differences in resource potential, cost, current utilization, and other factors. In sum, our scenarios entail hydropower generation growth between 36% and 119% in 2050, compared to 2015, globally.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A model for particle confinement in a toroidal plasma subject to strong radial electric fields

The approach adopted in the NASA Lewis Bumpy Torus experiment is to confine and heat a toroidal plasma by the simultaneous application of strong dc magnetic fields and electric fields. Strong radial electric fields (about 1 kV/cm) are imposed by biasing the plasma with up to 12 negative electrode rings which surround its minor circumference. The plasma containment is consistent with a balance of two processes: a radial infusion of ions in those sectors not containing electrode rings, resulting from the radially inward electric fields; and ion losses to the electrode rings, each of which acts as a sink and draws ions out the plasma in the manner of a Langmuir probe in the ion saturation regime. The highest density on axis which has been observed so far in this steady-state plasma is 6.2 trillion particles per cu cm, for which the particle containment time is 2.5 msec. The deuterium ion kinetic temperature for these conditions was in the range of 360 to 520 eV.

Roth, J. R.↗

Abstract for CRADA among NETL, Ohio University, and MetalKraft Technologies, LLC

The electrical grid faces challenges for meeting accelerated electricity demand arising from the electrification of building and transportation sectors. According to the DOE Grid Development Office, 70% of transmission lines are approaching the end of their lifecycle. The aging grid and insufficient transmission capacity necessitate the development of new technologies to improve overall grid performance. The conventional conductors used for electrical transmission lines suffer from substantial energy losses, high costs and low durability. These inefficiencies result in higher operational costs, increased energy waste, and difficulties in managing power flow. Improving the grid will require metals and composites with higher electrical conductivity and strength than the materials currently used. This CRADA will develop technologies to improve the grid by fabricating carbon metal composites with improved electrical, structural, and mechanical properties in comparison to metals that do not contain carbon additives. The composites will be made by incorporating carbon materials (graphite, graphene) into aluminum, copper, and other metals. The work will focus primarily on improving material properties that enhance the performance of these materials in electrical conductor applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

PR100: Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy [Slides]

Puerto Rico has committed to meeting its electricity needs with 100% renewable energy by 2050. The PR100: Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy study, led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), will leverage world-class expertise, cross-sector modeling capabilities, and community engagement to generate feasible pathways to affordable and reliable electricity across the archipelago. PR100 is being funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency through an interagency agreement with DOE's Office of Electricity to support recovery efforts in the island's energy sector leveraging the expertise and capabilities of the National Laboratories including Argonne, Lawrence Berkeley, NREL, Oak Ridge, Pacific Northwest, and Sandia. The public is invited to this virtual launch event to learn more about the scope and benefits of the study and opportunities for engagement. Welcoming remarks will be provided by Jennifer M. Granholm, Secretary of the U.S. Department of Energy; Martin Keller, Director of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory; and Deanne Criswell, Administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

100% renewable energy↗

A model for particle confinement in a toroidal plasma subject to strong radial electric fields

A toroidal plasma is confined and heated by the simultaneous application of strong d.c. magnetic fields and electric fields. Strong radial electric fields (about 1 kilovolt per centimeter) are imposed by biasing the plasma with up to 12 negative electrode rings which surround its minor circumference. The plasma containment is consistent with a balance of two processes: a radial infusion of ions in those sectors not containing electrode rings, resulting from the radially inward electric fields; and ion losses to the electrode rings, each of which acts as a sink and draws ions out the plasma in the manner of a Langmuir probe in the ion saturation regime. The highest density on axis which has been observed so far in this steady-state plasma is 6.2 x 10 to the 12th power particles per cubic centimeter, for which the particle containment time is 2.5 milliseconds. The deuterium ion kinetic temperature for these conditions was in the range of 360 to 520 eV.

Roth, J. R.↗

Pathways to Carbon Neutrality 2050 in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur

Malaysia has recently set an ambitious target of achieving carbon neutrality as early as 2050. To accomplish this, the country will need to strategically reduce its emissions across all sectors. In 2020, Malaysia emitted approximately 368 MtCO2e, with the largest sources of emissions including electricity (36% of total emissions), transportation (17%), and industry (15%)1. We find that the greatest reductions in emissions can therefore come from decarbonizing power generation and electrifying end-use sectors. Digitalization, smart technologies, and improved energy efficiency will significantly reduce economy-wide energy consumption. By leveraging efficient technologies, both Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur can address the challenges posed by rapid urbanization and climate change. Digitalization is a broad category that includes a variety of measures; for example, the wide adoption of high-efficiency appliances and lighting or improved building energy codes in the buildings sector. Similarly, technological improvements can advance industrial energy efficiency, and for transportation, smart technologies cover a shift from private to public transportation and the greater use of electric vehicles. While renewable energy (RE) will play a crucial role in decarbonization, achieving carbon neutrality in certain sectors will be difficult without emerging technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) and innovative fuel sources such as hydrogen. In order for Malaysia to rely on CCS as a mitigation option, early investment and incentives to the private sector will be critical. This holds for the use of hydrogen as well: investing in the necessary technology, infrastructure, and human capital will allow Malaysia to position itself as an innovator in the region and leverage these advanced technologies as a key part of its climate strategy. Another possible carbon removal option other than CCS would be a land-use sink; however, given that Malaysia is still developing and may deforest in the near-term, this report does not focus on the mitigation potential of land-use change. With its innovative and bold climate plans, Kuala Lumpur is primed to be a leader in regional climate change efforts. Kuala Lumpur is also engaged in several international collaborations to ensure sustainable city development such as the C40 network and the ASEAN Smart Cities Partnership. As such, the city will play a critical role in contributing to Malaysia’s overall climate goals and as a policy trendsetter through ambitious, scalable plans. One key factor in these emissions reductions is that Kuala Lumpur has full control over its building guidelines, allowing for ambitious policies resulting in significant emissions reductions. However, in other sectors, Kuala Lumpur has less direct control over regulations; for example, power generation and integration of RE are largely in the hands of the Malaysian government. With limited and primarily light industry, Kuala Lumpur’s contributions to emissions reductions here are curbed. And, while Kuala Lumpur has control over local transportation policies like increasing access to and quality of public transportation, broad shifts in transportation will stem from national-level policies. As such, multi-level governance is an integral component of Malaysia’s climate strategy and coordination between local and national governments will be essential in reducing emissions and achieving other climate goals. This report addresses these and other key challenges and opportunities Malaysia faces on the road to carbon neutrality.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

By-controlled convection and field-aligned currents near midnight auroral oval for northward interplanetary magnetic field

Using the Dynamics Explorer (DE) 2 magnetic and electric field and plasma data, B(sub y)- controlled convection and field-aligned currents in the midnight sector for northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) are examined. The results of an analysis of the electric field data show that when IMF is stable and when its magnitude is large, a coherent B(sub y)-controlled convection exists near the midnight auroral oval in the ionosphere having adequate conductivities. When B(sub y) is negative, the convection consists of a westward (eastward) plasma flow at the lower latitudes and an eastward (westward) plasma flow at the higher latitudes in the midnight sector in the northern (southern) ionosphere. When B(sub y) is positive, the flow directions are reversed. The distribution of the field-aligned currents associated with the B(sub y)-controlled convection, in most cases, shows a three-sheet structure. In accordance with the convection the directions of the three sheets are dependent on the sign of B(sub y). The location of disappearance of the precipitating intense electrons having energies of a few keV is close to the convection reversal surface. However, the more detailed relationship between the electron precipitation boundary and the convection reversal surface depends on the case. In some cases the precipitating electrons extend beyond the convection reversal surface, and in others the poleward boundary terminates at a latitude lower than the reversal surface. Previous studies suggest that the poleward boundary of the electrons having energies of a few keV is not necessarily coincident with an open/closed bounary. Thus the open/closed boundary may be at a latitude higher than the poleward boundary of the electron precipitation, or it may be at a latitude lower than the poleward boundary of the electron precipitation. We discuss relationships between the open/closed boundary and the convection reversal surface. When as a possible choice we adopt a view that the open/closed boundary agrees with the convection reversal surface, we can explain qualitatively the configuration of the B(sub y)-controlled convection on the open and close field line regions by proposing a mapping modified in accordance with IMF B(sub y).

Taguchi, S.↗

Progressing Analysis of Variable Electric Rates (PAVER) Study

The Progressing Analysis of Variable Electric Rates (PAVER) study analyzed the impact of a range of time-varying electric rates on the performance of a regional electric grid and the resulting costs for participating and non-participating customers. This analysis leveraged and extended the work of PNNL’s Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study. Five different rate designs were included: a flat volumetric energy charge, a typical Time of Use (TOU) rate, a dynamic energy (DE) rate (based on wholesale locational marginal prices), a dynamic energy and capacity (DE+C) rate, and, finally, a Block and Swing (B&S) rate that billed customers based on their average load profile at constant pricing, but used the DE+C dynamic price for load deviations from their average profile. These rates were analyzed in a large-scale co-simulation of an entire regional grid with a customer population representative of the current state. A large fraction (80%) of residential and commercial customers were assumed to participate in these time-varying rates with automatically controlled HVAC, water heaters, electric vehicles, and batteries. This study assumed no industrial sector participation. The DE and DE+C rates saw system peak loads reduced by 6-7%, while the large participation in the TOU rate case saw a significant rebound effect and a resulting peak load increase of >5%. The impacts to the annual and peak system demand impacted system wholesale prices and the overall grid operating costs. This cost structure determined the revenue needed to be collected from customers by each rate design. Participating customers on the DE and DE+C rates (located in one of the modeled DSOs) saw reductions in average annual electricity bills of 11-17% with average increases in monthly bill variation of no more than 13%. At such high participation levels, TOU customers saw 10% higher average annual bills (due to system-wide rebound effects) and average increased monthly bill variation of 16%. Residential owners of large flexible loads (such as electric vehicles) saw larger bill savings (17-20%) when on a fully dynamic rate. The presence of on-site generation (such as rooftop solar) did not appear to appreciably change customer outcomes. Customers on the Block and Swing rate did see 6% lower monthly bill variation (as intended) than the flat rate case, but at the expense of appreciable bill savings, which were only 3%, comparable to the savings seen by non-participants. Given this finding we recommend that additional research be conducted into how best various bill protection mechanisms can balance minimizing customer bill variation with providing financial incentives commensurate with the flexibility customers provide. We also recommend that customer outcomes be explored across a range of regions using current actual customer and system cost data.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Automated fault detection and diagnosis deployment Internet of Things solution for building energy system

The building sector is the highest energy consumer and ranks first in terms of carbon emissions among all sectors. To address these issues, decarbonization and electrification in the building energy sector are two critical missions of the new US administration. For decarbonization, the new administration has set a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50–52% by 2030 and targeting a carbon-neutral economy by 2050. For electrification, the goal is to achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035. Such decarbonization and electrification in the building sector require that energy consumption in buildings be reduced significantly. Therefore, the building sector must continuously adopt new technologies to achieve its energy and carbon emission goals. One of the most fundamental technologies is the Internet of Things (IoT). IoT has proven to be an effective solution for the building domain, including building information/energy modeling, smart buildings, etc. Although much progress has been made in the development of IoT-based building energy systems, there is still a lack of reliable, scalable, and affordable IoT-based automated fault and degradation diagnostic (AFDD) solutions. Such solutions would enable deployment of advanced algorithms into real systems to archive the projected energy benefits. Here, this study reviews existing IoT solutions developed for building energy–related application and developed a simple but effective AFDD IoT deployment solution, including developing a suitable IoT architecture and conducting easy and scalable deployment by leveraging a common cloud-based IoT service.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Electrification of Aircraft: Challenges, Barriers, and Potential Impacts

Small-scale aircraft are being electrified with small e-aircraft already certified to fly and with test flights underway for retrofits of existing aircraft focused on near-term deployment. Internationally, from 2018 to 2020, the number of electric aircraft projects underway increased 50%. These technologies are projected to increase operational efficiency and reduce emissions and noise from a growing aviation sector. This emerging interest in aviation electrification includes aircraft, energy supply equipment, and battery storage manufacturers. Federal agencies are currently funding a variety of efforts including technology research as well as forecasting demand and environmental impacts and state governments have also begun pushing for further investigation in this area. This paper provides an overview of the current state and potential future development of aviation electrification. To understand the types of research questions around current and future challenges for this emerging sector, we consider a case study of the potential deployment of small commercial electric aircraft for existing, under-served markets and consider operational requirements and technical challenges as well as the range of questions that will need to be addressed around charging infrastructure, grid integration, policy and regulatory requirements, and emissions impacts. This case study also outlines potential nearer-term solutions and research areas of interest that will need to be addressed in the longer term at much larger scales and highlights NREL capabilities for addressing these challenges.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

plutus: An R package to calculate electricity investments and stranded assets from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)

plutus is an R package that post-processes outputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to calculate the power sector capital investment costs and stranded asset costs associated with GCAM projections of electricity generation by technology. GCAM is a market equilibrium model used to examine the dynamics of the coupled human-Earth system and the response of this system to global change, including socioeconomics, technology, climate, and policy. GCAM tracks electricity generation by technology and vintage over 32 geopolitical regions throughout the lifetime of each generating technology. plutus extends GCAM functionality by (1) estimating the foregone economic value of prematurely retired power plants as a result of economic-induced retirements compared to scheduled lifetimes; and (2) estimating the new installations and capital investments driven by future changes in economic, energy, agriculture, and land-use systems in GCAM.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Debate on Vehicle Triad: Examining the Utilization Patterns of Gasoline, Hybrid, and Electric Vehicles in Households

Light-duty vehicles contribute to approximately half of the transport sector's emissions, a sector challenging to decarbonize owing to the autocentric nature of many American cities. The U.S. Department of Transportation's blueprint outlines three key decarbonization strategies: increasing convenience, improving efficiency, and transitioning to zero-emission vehicles. Among these, the adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) offers a promising opportunity to reduce emissions from light-duty vehicles, which are predominantly gasoline-powered. Although substantial literature identifies and addresses factors influencing EV adoption, understanding their utilization within households who own vehicles with mixed fuel types is crucial for accurately assessing their environmental benefits. This paper addresses two key questions: (a) Are EVs utilized more, equally, or less than gasoline vehicles (GVs) and (b) What factors influence mileage utilization patterns in households with multiple vehicle fuel types, accounting for substitution and complementary effects? Analysis of 2022 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data indicates that EVs are utilized more than GVs within households that own multiple mixed fuel fleets. Findings reveal that households with a higher number of younger individuals and multiple workers use EVs more extensively, and those with older adults and larger households with multiple vehicles tend to use GVs more. Rural households have higher use of hybrid vehicles (HVs). The study identifies a substitution effect between EVs and GVs, while complementary relationship between HVs and EVs, suggesting nuances in vehicle utilization patterns. This nuanced understanding of vehicle utilization patterns informs the development of targeted policies and infrastructure investments to optimize household transportation efficiency.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Managing Increased Electric Vehicle Shares on Decarbonized Bulk Power Systems

Transportation electrification and power sector decarbonization - the convergence of these two trends present a complex planning problem requiring realistic, region-specific modeling and analysis to ensure that both can happen rapidly and cost effectively. This project, funded through the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office, models the evolution of the U.S. bulk power system (through 2050) in response to large-scale EV charging across all on-road vehicle segments. We will assess the opportunity and value of demand-side flexibility (i.e., "smart" charging) for reducing energy costs, increasing renewable generation shares, and managing future EV loads on the bulk power system. Overall, this study aims to provide an improved understanding of least-cost solutions for managing EV load growth on the grid and will make high-resolution EV load data sets publicly available for further analysis.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Primer to SWIFt 2.0 Technical Information Sheets

More than 16,000 publicly owned municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in the U.S. treat a wide range of wastewater (WW) flows ranging from <0.5 to >200 MGD. Municipal WWTPs act as the last barrier before exposure to water-borne diseases and contaminants, thus serving as a critical infrastructure protecting human health and the environment. A recent survey by the American Society of Civil Engineers assigned the U.S.’s WW infrastructure a grade of D+ because of the number of improvements needed for end-of-life infrastructure with operating conditions being over or under design capacities. With increasing population growth and urbanization, the municipal WW sector needs to grow resiliently and sustainably to accommodate increasing sewer flows in the wake of new infrastructure needs and global priorities. In addition, this growth will be affected by rising concerns over constrained resources (e.g., electricity, energy, and water) and regulations. This necessitates molding the WW sector toward sustainability- and resiliency-related planning and innovations to address current and future needs while simultaneously producing profitable by-products.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Advancing Transportation Efficiency and Electric Vehicles in Tonga: A Review of Relevant Trends and Best Practices

Tonga is facing a transportation sector characterized by private passenger vehicles, poorly maintained roads and walkways, and an inadequate public transit system. By understanding detailed global and regional trends for transport energy efficiency and electric vehicles (EVs) within this context, the Government of Tonga can proactively plan its future transportation systems. In addition to global and regional trends, this report also covers a variety of international case studies and examines Tonga's own transportation policies and actions through this lens. Jurisdictions leading in EV adoption have implemented policies such as reducing taxes on EVs compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, providing subsidies and rebates for EV charger installation, instituting an age limit on imported ICE vehicles, and developing EV maintenance courses to expand the skill set of current automotive technicians. Although there are key challenges and barriers to widespread EV adoption in Tonga, multiple studies have researched potential political, technical, financial, and educational interventions that can be adapted and applied in Tonga. Therefore, the purpose of this report is to synthesize the relevant trends and best practices in order to provide Tonga's Ministry of Meteorology, Energy, Information, Disaster Management, Environment, Climate Change and Communication (MEIDECC) with a wide range of information on electric vehicles (EVs) and transportation efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

CO2ROpt (Feedstock Allocation Optimization Model) [SWR-22-13]

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains a critical challenge for the transportation and chemical sectors. The electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide is a potential pathway for production of fuels and chemicals that uses atmospheric carbon dioxide as a feedstock. Here we present an analysis of the potential for carbon dioxide captured from point sources and via direct air capture to be utilized in electrochemical reduction under different market scenarios. Using a numerical optimization framework and national data sets, scenarios for nationwide production of ethylene, formate, and carbon monoxide are evaluated at scales comparable to current production of these molecules in the United States. We show that developing a network for production of these products at scale requires capture and utilization of significant portions of the carbon dioxide that is currently emitted from large stationary point sources. Because carbon dioxide point sources are spatially and compositionally variable, their use for carbon dioxide reduction depends on electricity prices, capture cost, and location. If the power sector in the United States is decarbonized, carbon dioxide supply decreases significantly, increasing the importance of utilizing other carbon dioxide streams, and increasing the likelihood that direct air capture plays a role in supplying carbon dioxide feedstocks. These findings provide a first insight into the feedstock and energy constraints for carbon dioxide reduction.

Badgett, Alex↗

New Tool Evaluates the Financial Viability of Pumped Storage Hydropower

The rapidly evolving electricity system with increasing variable renewable energy (VRE) resources provides both opportunities and challenges for the power sector. With the significant ramps and intermittency associated with VRE resources, the requirements and need for additional flexible resources increase. Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) provides flexibility to the electricity grid to replace fossil fuel plants, which are responsible for 25% of U.S. emissions. PSH projects support various aspects of power system operations, including flexibility, ramping capability, energy, ancillary service, black start, and others. The significant potential of hydropower requires understanding the different value drivers to the electricity system specific to the location of a project and then optimizing the plant for the different system values. Thus, determining the value of PSH projects and their many services and contributions to the electricity system can be a challenge for potential developers, system owners, regulators, policy makers, and consultants.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Material efficiency and climate change mitigation of passenger vehicles

A transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy is currently underway but may not be rapid enough in order to reach ambitious climate change mitigation targets. Therefore, additional, preferably instantaneous, measures are needed for quick emissions reductions, which is where material efficiency (ME) could constitute a promising solution. ME strategies include but are not limited to vehicle lightweighting through material substitution, increased recycling of materials, reuse and remanufacturing of vehicle components, vehicle downsizing (switching to a smaller vehicle) and more intensive use by means of increased vehicle occupancy through sharing practices. While recent analyses have focused on a narrow subset of these, we find striking differences in the overall potential of different strategies to decrease vehicular carbon footprints. Downsizing and more intensive use offer the largest mitigation potential but strongly depend on consumer behavior and are highly sensitive to modeling assumptions. Combined, the analyzed strategies can achieve emission reductions of up to 57% over the life cycle of a single vehicle, which is comparable to up to 83% achieved through a shift to low-carbon energy supply. ME can cut carbon footprints of already efficient vehicles charging renewable electricity by half again. This makes ME both an excellent short-term solution for climate change mitigation targeting the light vehicle sector but also an important complementary strategy to the long-term transition towards electric vehicles and renewable energy supply.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗