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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Developing new pathways for energy and environmental decision-making in India: a review

Abstract India faces a dual challenge of economic development and responding to climate change. Although India’s per capita emissions are well below global average, the country is one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters. Indian policymakers and stakeholders require high-quality data and research to assess low-emissions, sustainable development strategies. Peer-reviewed literature is a key source of this information and also a key venue for conversation amongst research leaders. This paper examines the recent peer-reviewed literature on India’s 2030 and 2050 pathways. We conducted a systematic literature review to identify key quantitative national modeling studies. From the 34 studies identified, we synthesized scenario data to draw common conclusions and identify critical research gaps. The main focus was on examining the coverage and the state of information available on low-carbon pathways. Overall, we find a few scenarios that are potentially consistent with a 2070 net-zero goal, but more limited assessment of pathways to reach net-zero emissions before this date. Mitigation pathways with greater ambition are required across all energy sectors to ensure a smooth transition to net-zero emissions by or before 2070. The scenarios confirm that reducing emissions to below 2 GtCO 2 yr −1 by mid-century would necessitate significant transformations of the Indian energy sector, such as, a decrease in unabated coal power capacity, transportation modal shift, and industrial process switching. The assessment also finds substantial differences in final energy estimates reported across studies, particularly in transportation. The lack of consistency in, and transparency about underlying drivers, assumptions, and even outputs across studies points to the critical need for the sorts of coordinated, multi-model studies that have proven exceptionally valuable for decision makers in other major emitting countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assess and Benchmark Magneto-Inertial Fusion (MIF) Scaling. Final Technical Report for the SNL/Rochester ALPHA Follow-on Project

This project was a follow-on to the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the Laboratory for Laser Energetics (LLE) ARPA-E ALPHA project entitled “Demonstrating Fuel Magnetization and Laser Heating Tools for Low-Cost Fusion Energy”. The primary purpose of this follow-on project was to obtain additional data at the OMEGA facility to help better understand how MagLIF, a platform that has already demonstrated the scientific viability of magneto-inertial fusion, scales across a factor of 1000 in driver energy. A secondary aspect of this project was to extend simulations and analysis at SNL to cover a wider magneto-inertial fusion (MIF) parameter space and test scaling of those models across this wide range of input energies and conditions of the target. This work was successful in improving understanding of how key physics elements of MIF scales and improves confidence in setting requirements for fusion gain with larger drivers. The OMEGA experiments at the smaller scale verified the hypothesis that preheating the fuel plays a significant role in introducing wall contaminants that mix into the fuel and significantly degrade fusion performance. This contamination not only impacts target performance but the optimal input conditions for the target. However, analysis at the Z-scale showed that target performance at high preheat levels is limited by the Nernst effect, which advects magnetic flux from the hot spot, reducing magnetic insulation and consequently reduces the temperature of the fuel. The combination of MagLIF experiments at the disparate scales of OMEGA and Z along with a multiscale 3D simulation analysis has led to new insight into the physical mechanisms responsible for limiting target performance and provides important benchmarks to assess target scaling more generally for MIF schemes. Finally, in addition to the MagLIF related work, a semi-analytic model of liner driven Field Reversed Configuration (FRC) was developed that predicts the fusion gain for such systems. This model was also validated with 2D radiation magneto-hydrodynamic simulations and predicts that fusion gains of near unity could be driven by the Z machine.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Matrix Approach to Land Carbon Cycle Modeling

Land ecosystems contribute to climate change mitigation by taking up approximately 30% of anthropogenically emitted carbon. However, estimates of the amount and distribution of carbon uptake across the world's ecosystems or biomes display great uncertainty. The latter hinders a full understanding of the mechanisms and drivers of land carbon uptake, and predictions of the future fate of the land carbon sink. The latter is needed as evidence to inform climate mitigation strategies such as afforestation schemes. To advance land carbon cycle modeling, we have developed a matrix approach. Land carbon cycle models use carbon balance equations to represent carbon exchanges among pools. Our approach organizes this set of equations into a single matrix equation without altering any processes of the original model. The matrix equation enables the development of a theoretical framework for understanding the general, transient behavior of the land carbon cycle. While carbon input and residence time are used to quantify carbon storage capacity at steady state, a third quantity, carbon storage potential, integrates fluxes with time to define dynamic disequilibrium of the carbon cycle under global change. The matrix approach can help address critical contemporary issues in modeling, including pinpointing sources of model uncertainty and accelerating spin-up of land carbon cycle models by tens of times. The accelerated spin-up liberates models from the computational burden that hinders comprehensive parameter sensitivity analysis and assimilation of observational data to improve model accuracy. Such computational efficiency offered by the matrix approach enables substantial improvement of model predictions using ever-increasing data availability. Overall, the matrix approach offers a step change forward for understanding and modeling the land carbon cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microphysical Piggybacking in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Abstract This paper presents incorporation of the microphysical piggybacking into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Microphysical piggybacking is to run a single simulation applying two microphysical schemes, the first scheme driving the simulation and the second piggybacking this simulated flow. “Driving the simulation” means that the simulated microphysical processes, affect the cloud buoyancy and thus force the simulated flow. In contrast, the piggybacking variables are advected by the simulated flow and undergo microphysical transformation, but they do not affect the simulated flow (like in prescribed flow—kinematic—simulations). The two sets of variables (driver and piggybacker) include temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and all microphysical variables. We provide details of implementing piggybacking into the WRF model, illustrate its applications, and demonstrate the benefits of this methodology in two idealized three‐dimensional cases: (a) a squall line case applying two microphysics schemes, the Thompson bulk microphysics scheme and the University of Pécs/NCAR bin (UPNB) scheme. The piggybacking simulations revealed that the microphysics‐dynamics interaction plays a more important role than the pure microphysical size sorting effect in the transition zone formation. (b) A case of daytime shallow‐to‐deep convective development over land. This case uses the UPNB scheme and contrasts convection developing in environments with either pristine or polluted cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The piggybacking results indicated that the increase of cloud cover and decrease of supersaturation are mainly associated with the microphysical effect of increasing CCN while the change of precipitation on the ground is also influenced by microphysics‐dynamics interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ice-shelf freshwater triggers for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf melt tipping point in a global ocean–sea-ice model

Some ocean modeling studies have identified a potential tipping point from a low to a high basal melt regime beneath the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), Antarctica, with significant implications for subsequent Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. To date, investigation of the climate drivers and impacts of this possible event have been limited because ice-shelf cavities and ice-shelf melting are only now starting to be included in global climate models. Using a global ocean–sea-ice configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that represents both ocean circulations and melting within ice-shelf cavities, we explore freshwater triggers (iceberg melt and ice-shelf basal melt) of a transition to a high-melt regime at FRIS in a low-resolution (30 km in the Southern Ocean) global ocean–sea-ice model. We find that a realistic spatial distribution of iceberg melt fluxes is necessary to prevent the FRIS melt regime change from unrealistically occurring under historical-reanalysis-based atmospheric forcing. Further, improvement of the default parameterization for mesoscale eddy mixing significantly reduces a large regional fresh bias and weak Antarctic Slope Front structure, both of which precondition the model to melt regime change. Using two different stable model con figurations, we explore the sensitivity of FRIS melt regime change to regional ice-sheet freshwater fluxes. Through a series of sensitivity experiments prescribing incrementally increasing melt rates from the smaller, neighboring ice shelves in the eastern Weddell Sea, we demonstrate the potential for an ice-shelf melt “domino effect” should the upstream ice shelves experience increased melt rates. The experiments also reveal that modest ice-shelf melt biases in a model, especially at coarse ocean resolution where narrow continental shelf dynamics are not well resolved, can lead to an unrealistic melt regime change at downstream ice shelves. Thus, we find that remote connections between melt fluxes at different ice shelves are sensitive to baseline model conditions. Our results highlight both the potential and the peril of simulating prognostic Antarctic ice-shelf melt rates in a low-resolution global model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ice-shelf freshwater triggers for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf melt tipping point in a global ocean–sea-ice model

Abstract. Some ocean modeling studies have identified a potential tipping point from a low to a high basal melt regime beneath the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), Antarctica, with significant implications for subsequent Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. To date, investigation of the climate drivers and impacts of this possible event have been limited because ice-shelf cavities and ice-shelf melting are only now starting to be included in global climate models. Using a global ocean–sea-ice configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that represents both ocean circulations and melting within ice-shelf cavities, we explore freshwater triggers (iceberg melt and ice-shelf basal melt) of a transition to a high-melt regime at FRIS in a low-resolution (30 km in the Southern Ocean) global ocean–sea-ice model. We find that a realistic spatial distribution of iceberg melt fluxes is necessary to prevent the FRIS melt regime change from unrealistically occurring under historical-reanalysis-based atmospheric forcing. Further, improvement of the default parameterization for mesoscale eddy mixing significantly reduces a large regional fresh bias and weak Antarctic Slope Front structure, both of which precondition the model to melt regime change. Using two different stable model configurations, we explore the sensitivity of FRIS melt regime change to regional ice-sheet freshwater fluxes. Through a series of sensitivity experiments prescribing incrementally increasing melt rates from the smaller, neighboring ice shelves in the eastern Weddell Sea, we demonstrate the potential for an ice-shelf melt “domino effect” should the upstream ice shelves experience increased melt rates. The experiments also reveal that modest ice-shelf melt biases in a model, especially at coarse ocean resolution where narrow continental shelf dynamics are not well resolved, can lead to an unrealistic melt regime change at downstream ice shelves. Thus, we find that remote connections between melt fluxes at different ice shelves are sensitive to baseline model conditions. Our results highlight both the potential and the peril of simulating prognostic Antarctic ice-shelf melt rates in a low-resolution global model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Multi-Output Hybrid Energy Systems Interacting with the Grid: Application of Improved Price-Taker and Price-Maker Approaches to Nuclear-Hydrogen Systems

The growing recognition of the value of hydrogen as an energy intermediate in supporting future power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy has prompted many studies to quantify the economic potential of multi-output hybrid systems, which are one type of integrated energy systems (IES). Because of the complexity of modeling multiple sectors, these studies typically use simplified modeling approaches to capture the interactions between sectors. In this study, we explore the implications of alternative modeling approaches for nuclear-hydrogen IES focusing on a power system in the Midwest United States. We combine highly resolved capacity expansion and production cost modeling tools of the power system with a detailed hydrogen system optimization tool to determine the optimal electrolyzer and storage sizing and optimal operations of the nuclear-hydrogen hybrid resource across three future study years. We compare economic and operational outcomes across a spectrum of modeling approaches, including a non-hybridized base approach; a traditional price-taker approach that does not include the impact of hydrogen production on the electricity system; a power-system-focused price-maker approach that does not account for temporal hydrogen constraints; and two improved price-taker and price-maker approaches that each address the impact of revenue-optimal levels of electricity production on the resulting power system and temporal hydrogen constraints on the overall feasible solution. Results show how a traditional price-taker approach can overestimate the economic benefits of multi-output nuclear-hydrogen IES compared to our two improved approaches that estimate both hydrogen system constraints and power system interaction. We find that hydrogen output requirements and storage size limits are key drivers to overall operations and some economic outcomes. Under our assumed constant hydrogen output requirement, storage costs, test system, and modeling approaches, our results indicate that hybridization can provide a net benefit, but results are sensitive to the treatment of hydrogen revenues and electricity prices as impacted by the power system evolution.

capacity expansion modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Diabatic quantum annealing for the frustrated ring model

Abstract Quantum annealing (QA) is a continuous-time heuristic quantum algorithm for solving or approximately solving classical optimization problems. The algorithm uses a schedule to interpolate between a driver Hamiltonian with an easy-to-prepare ground state and a problem Hamiltonian whose ground state encodes solutions to an optimization problem. The standard implementation relies on the evolution being adiabatic: keeping the system in the instantaneous ground state with high probability and requiring a time scale inversely related to the minimum energy gap between the instantaneous ground and excited states. However, adiabatic evolution can lead to evolution times that scale exponentially with the system size, even for computationally simple problems. Here, we study whether non-adiabatic evolutions with optimized annealing schedules can bypass this exponential slowdown for one such class of problems called the frustrated ring model. For sufficiently optimized annealing schedules and system sizes of up to 39 qubits, we provide numerical evidence that we can avoid the exponential slowdown. Our work highlights the potential of highly-controllable QA to circumvent bottlenecks associated with the standard implementation of QA.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Catching up with the trees: empirical advancements to improve herbaceous representation in models

Ecosystems dominated by herbaceous vegetation (i.e. nonwoody species) represent c. 40% of the terrestrial land surface on Earth (White et al., 2000), facilitate large quantities of carbon sequestration (reviewed by Bai & Cotrufo, 2022), and provide much of the food production for humans (O'Mara, 2012). Many of these ecosystems are currently in danger of being lost due to global change drivers, shrub encroachment, and calls for afforestation (Bond et al., 2019). Furthermore, our predictive understanding of these systems is limited, which can be seen from high levels of uncertainty in modeled future carbon (C) storage of these systems (e.g. fig. 3 in McGuire et al., 2018).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Concept Descriptions for the VTR Rabbit System and Driver Fuel Test Assemblies

Two of the experiment vehicles being developed for the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) are presented here. The first is a rabbit system that will enable rapid insertion of small test capsules into the high fast flux of the VTR core for relatively short durations. The rabbit concept development includes the construction/demonstration of a near-full-scale system in a deep-water pool to demonstrate functionality, development of a concept of operations and initial procedures, and validation of thermal-hydraulic modeling. In addition, modeling efforts are underway to simulate the thermal and neutronic environment of a rabbit capsule. The second type of experiment vehicle presented here is a driver fuel test assembly for inserting fuel and materials tests into the core by replacing a driver fuel assembly. Here, a novel design for dismountable test assemblies is proposed for the VTR.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Biophysical model of eelgrass and water quality in Coos Bay, OR shows greater mitigation potential for ocean acidification than hypoxia

Seagrass beds provide important ecosystem services and are valued, in part, for their potential to mediate stressors such as ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH) for sensitive species. However, the susceptibility of seagrasses to anthropogenic impacts and recent declines motivate the need to better understand the drivers of seagrass and the water quality consequences that occur with variation in seagrass abundance. To meet this need, we leveraged existing monitoring data (water quality and seagrass), hydrodynamic circulation model, and biogeochemical model framework with seagrass submodel, to produce a biophysical model of Coos Bay estuary, Oregon, U.S. The model includes biogeochemical processes involving water quality, plankton, seagrass, and sediment-water interactions. Ecosystem models like this are useful for evaluating complex estuarine systems because they allow us to extend our understanding of system dynamics beyond existing observations and perform experiments to identify the processes driving observed patterns. We used the biophysical model of Coos Bay to evaluate the dynamics of water quality and native eelgrass (Zostera marina) under three eelgrass abundance scenarios (zero eelgrass, current extent, and maximum observed extent) to elucidate the relationship between eelgrass and OAH. Including eelgrass in the Coos Bay model produced results that more closely resembled water quality observations - dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH were more dynamic in simulations with eelgrass, often having both higher highs and lower lows. While there were some areas of the estuary where DO improved with the addition of eelgrass to the model there was overall a small net increase in harmful DO conditions (based on a salmon physiological threshold). In contrast, ocean acidification conditions, pH and calcium carbonate saturation state for aragonite (Ω), were improved (based on oyster requirements) with the addition of eelgrass - although the magnitude of improvement differed seasonally and spatially. Our new model represents a useful tool - one which accounts for and controls the relevant physical and biogeochemical processes - to evaluate conditions that confer resilience or enhance vulnerability to OAH in an important Pacific Northwest coastal estuary and results can inform the OAH-related dynamics occurring in other eastern boundary current estuaries.

FVCOM-ICM↗
DOE OSTI2021

Planning Near-Term Tasks for the Development of Advanced Reactor Mechanistic Source Term Modeling and Simulation Tools

To assist both the advanced reactor industry and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in the pursuit of reactor design and licensing, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has established a mechanistic source term (MST) research project under the auspices of the Application Drivers technical area. The MST research project is a collaboration between Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) with a high-level objective to coordinate the development of comprehensive advanced reactor MST mod/sim capabilities to support risk-informed design and licensing decisions. As part of this effort, an MST mod/sim development pathway was developed in FY21, which outlines the high-level objectives and near-term tasks necessary to achieve the project objectives. Since publication of the development pathway, Argonne and SNL have been addressing the “near-term tasks” outlined in the report. The current provides a status update of the progress achieved in the fourth quarter of FY21. The report structure follows that of ref and is divided by advanced reactor type: High temperature gas reactor (HTGR), molten salt reactor (MSR) including fluoride salt-cooled high temperature reactor (FHR), and sodium fast reactor (SFR). Each section reviews the near-term tasks associated with the reactor type, current progress, and future plans. The near-term tasks associated with consequence modeling are reviewed in an upcoming work by SNL.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

(U) PRAD0697 & PRAD0698: Complex Loading of CeO₂ Powder

Cerium(IV) oxide (CeO₂) powder is shock compressed using the Precision High Energy-density Liner Implosion eXperiment (PHELIX) platform. Experimental results are compared against several modeling approaches. Compaction behavior is best captured with a P-∝ model, which calculates CeO₂ powder bulk densities within 80-99% of experimental values but overpredicts densi cation at the cylindrical target's outer radius and center by up to 20%. Preliminary calculations suggest that accuracy could be increased with the inclusion of a coupled strength model. Several common computational modeling approaches for the shock compression response of granular materials and the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) force upon the impactor/liner in pulsed power compression experiments are investigated and analyzed for their validity. The Bi-linear Ramp, P-∝ PACXP, and P-∝ Menikoff-Kober continuum compaction models are calibrated to planar impact Hugoniot data for CeO₂ powder and used to predict the powder's shock compaction response under non-planar shock wave compression. MHD calculations of the PHELIX pulsed power driver are performed using an idealized resistor-inductor-capacitor (RLC) circuit calibrated to previous experiments. All simulations are performed using the LANL code FLAG. Two validation experiments are computationally designed using the calibrated compaction and circuit models, executed using the PHELIX platform on CeO₂ targets with initial porous densities of 3.95 and 4.03 g/cm³, measured with proton radiography, and analyzed against the model predictions. The two P-∝ models more accurately describe CeO₂ powder densi cation than the Bi-linear Ramp model. However, the two P-∝ models overpredict bulk density of the shock compressed CeO₂ powder by up to 20% when the appropriate impact velocities are applied. MHD calculations for both validation experiments underpredict liner impact velocities by 4-11% when using the idealized RLC circuit model calibrated to previous experiments. Compensating underpredictions of impact velocity and overpredictions of powder densication lead to a false accuracy in pre-shot calculations compared to experimental data. To improve correlation between simulations and experiments, the following improvements are suggested: 1. A coupled strength model for CeO₂ powder that updates strength as a function of porosity and applied stress. 2. An improved MHD circuit model that more accurately captures the PHELIX machine.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Roles of External Forcing and Internal Variability in Precipitation Changes of a Sub-Region of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic During 1979–2019

Observations of the seasonal mean precipitation averaged over a sub-region of the U.S. mid-Atlantic show significant increases in summer but no changes in winter during 1979–2019. Clarifying the drivers of these observed changes is important for understanding and interpreting future projections of regional precipitation by climate models. Herein, this study examines the relative effects of external forcing and internal variability in the observed multi-decadal changes using the historical and RCP8.5/SSP585 simulations from 37 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), 35 models in CMIP6, as well as large ensemble simulations from 6 models, each including more than 20 members. During 1979–2019, enhanced warming over land relative to ocean due to external forcing induces low pressure anomalies over land that contribute to the wetting summer. While similar wetting also occurs during winter, such effect is offset by the drying associated with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in recent decades. Internal variability produces large uncertainty in the multi-decadal precipitation changes simulated by climate models through changes in large-scale circulation associated with the NAO in winter and the North Atlantic Subtropical High in summer. These multi-decadal relationships between precipitation and large-scale circulation under internal variability also manifest on inter-annual timescale. These relationships highlight enhanced moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic in winter and near the mid-Atlantic coast in summer that modulates precipitation change in the study region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synchronization of the Recent Decline of East African Long Rains and Northwestern Eurasian Warming

Abstract The East African March–April–May (MAM, “long rains”) precipitation decline in recent decades remains a puzzle marked by various proposed large‐scale drivers. Here, the interannual variability of the long rains and their recent drying trend are examined using global model simulations and observations. Comparison of a control simulation and re‐initialized simulations in which land‐surface feedback is suppressed shows that much of the long rains deficit experienced between 1980 and 2014 is synchronized with the warming of the Northwestern Eurasian landmass. In agreement with the modeling results, multiple observational data sets reveal a strong negative correlation between MAM mean East African rainfall amount and the surface temperature over Northwestern Eurasia. Idealized simulations further indicate that warming in Northwestern Eurasia weakens the regional Hadley Cell and diverts the monsoonal transport of moisture away from Eastern Africa toward Europe and southern Africa, highlighting the role of remote land surface warming on the observed precipitation decline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Factors Associated With Fall Phytoplankton Blooms in the Northern Bering and Chukchi Seas

This study investigates environmental drivers of fall phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic, focusing on the northern Bering and Chukchi seas. Random Forests models were used to analyze covariates of fall phytoplankton blooms from 2013 to 2018, incorporating shipboard, remote sensing, and modeled environmental properties. Four regional models and one comprehensive all-station model considered fall as well as midsummer conditions. Midsummer properties included suspended particulate matter, chlorophyll-a, and the proportion of degraded pheophytin to chlorophyll-a used as a proxy for bloom stage. Open water duration was one of the highest ranked factors in predicting fall blooms. Open water duration also influences the stage of midsummer (July) blooms as indicated by pheophytin proportions, which in turn were the highest-ranked factor for predicting fall bloom events in the Chirikov Basin (northern Bering Sea between St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait) and the Chukchi Sea. Wind direction, specifically easterly winds, was an important predictor in the northern Bering Sea. Maximum wind speed ranked highly at stations located within the nutrient-poor Alaska Coastal Current in the Chukchi Sea. However, stormy days, average and maximum wind speeds generally ranked low in importance as a predictor of fall bloom events. Other parameters, including photosynthetic active radiation, modeled nutrient concentrations, mixed layer depth, and time since sea ice breakup date showed strong but regionally varying relationships with fall blooms. Altogether, results from these Random Forests models suggest that high wind events and storms in the absence of sea ice provide an incomplete narrative for initiating fall bloom events.

Gaffey, C. B. [Clark University, Worcester, MA (Un↗
DOE OSTI2024

Attosecond delays in X-ray molecular ionization

The photoelectric effect is not truly instantaneous, but exhibits attosecond delays that can reveal complex molecular dynamics. Sub-femtosecond duration light pulses provide the requisite tools to resolve the dynamics of photoionization. Accordingly, the past decade has produced a large volume of work on photoionization delays following single photon absorption of an extreme ultraviolet (XUV) photon. However, the measurement of time-resolved core-level photoionization remained out of reach. The required x-ray photon energies needed for core-level photoionization were not available with attosecond tabletop sources. We have now measured the x-ray photoemission delay of core-level electrons, and here report unexpectedly large delays, ranging up to 700 attoseconds in NO near the oxygen K-shell threshold. These measurements exploit attosecond soft x-ray pulses from a free-electron laser (XFEL) to scan across the entire region near the K-shell threshold. Furthermore, we find the delay spectrum is richly modulated, suggesting several contributions including transient trapping of the photoelectron due to shape resonances, collisions with the Auger-Meitner electron that is emitted in the rapid non-radiative relaxation of the molecule, and multi-electron scattering effects. Finally, the results demonstrate how x-ray attosecond experiments, supported by comprehensive theoretical modelling, can unravel the complex correlated dynamics of core-level photoionization.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neural Network-Based Electric Vehicle Range Prediction for Smart Charging Optimization

Range prediction is a standard feature in most modern road vehicles, allowing drivers to make informed decisions about when to refuel. Most vehicles make range predictions through data- or model-driven means, monitoring the average fuel consumption rate or using a tuned vehicle model to predict fuel consumption. The uncertainty of future driving conditions makes the range prediction problem challenging, particularly for less pervasive battery electric vehicles (BEV). Most contemporary machine learning-based methods attempt to forecast the battery SOC discharge profile to predict vehicle range. In this work, we propose a novel approach using two recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to predict the remaining range of BEVs and the minimum charge required to safely complete a trip. Each RNN has two outputs that can be used for statistical analysis to account for uncertainties; the first loss function leads to mean and variance estimation (MVE), while the second results in bounded interval estimation (BIE). These outputs of the proposed RNNs are then used to predict the probability of a vehicle completing a given trip without charging, or if charging is needed, the remaining range and minimum charging required to finish the trip with high probability. Training data was generated using a low-order physics model to estimate vehicle energy consumption from historical drive cycle data collected from medium-duty last-mile delivery vehicles. Here, the proposed method demonstrated high accuracy in the presence of day-to-day route variability, with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) below 6% for both RNN models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗