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At least 451 records · Page 25

Estimating Spatial Distribution Impacts of Rooftops Solar PV on Dynamic Hosting Capacity Evaluation for a Real Distribution Feeder

This paper models the sensitivity of dynamic hosting capacity analysis to the spatial distribution of distributed PV scenarios, random, close and far from substation deployments, at various penetration levels on a real distribution feeder, in a quasi-static time series (QSTS) power flow simulation using high resolution time-aware metrics. These spatial distribution scenarios were chosen to capture a wide range of potential operation impacts of these deployments using a set of thermaland voltage-based metrics such as instantaneous violations and moving averages for both thermal and voltage constraints. This study uses actual load and PV data up-scaled from 1-hour time step to 1-minute resolution to fully characterize the interaction between the daily changes in load and PV output, and their impacts on distribution system operations.

distribution system↗

Parametric description of intermittent probability distribution functions in solar wind and magnetohydrodynamic turbulence

ABSTRACT In this work, we find empirical evidence that the scale-dependent statistical properties of solar wind and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence can be described in terms of a family of parametric probability distribution functions (PDFs) known as Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG). Understanding these PDFs is one of the most important goals in turbulence theory, as they are inherently connected to the intermittent properties of solar wind turbulence. We investigate the properties of PDFs of Elsasser increments based on a large statistical sample from solar wind observations and high-resolution numerical simulations of MHD turbulence. In order to measure the PDFs and their corresponding properties, three experiments are presented: fast and slow solar wind for experimental data and a simulation of reduced MHD (RMHD) turbulence. Conditional statistics on a 23-yr-long sample of WIND data near 1 au and high-resolution pseudo-spectral simulation of steadily driven RMHD turbulence on a $2048^3$ mesh are used to construct scale-dependent PDFs. The empirical PDFs are fitted to NIG distributions, which depend on four free parameters. Our analysis shows that NIG distributions accurately capture the evolution of the PDFs, with scale-dependent parameters, from large scales characterized by a Gaussian distribution, turning to exponential tails within the inertial range and stretched exponentials at dissipative scales. We also show that empirically-measured NIG parameters exhibit well-defined scaling properties that are similar across the three empirical data sets, which may be indicative of universal behaviour.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Parameter estimation for X-ray scattering analysis with Hamiltonian Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Bayesian-inference-based approaches, in particular the random-walk Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, have received much attention recently for X-ray scattering analysis. Hamiltonian MCMC, a state-of-the-art development in the field of MCMC, has become popular in recent years. It utilizes Hamiltonian dynamics for indirect but much more efficient drawings of the model parameters. We described the principle of the Hamiltonian MCMC for inversion problems in X-ray scattering analysis by estimating high-dimensional models for several motivating scenarios in small-angle X-ray scattering, reflectivity, and X-ray fluorescence holography. Hamiltonian MCMC with appropriate preconditioning can deliver superior performance over the random-walk MCMC, and thus can be used as an efficient tool for the statistical analysis of the parameter distributions, as well as model predictions and confidence analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Weather-Driven Resilience for Distribution Systems

With increasing billion dollar disasters due to weather events, it is of utmost priority for utility and grid operators to maintain and enhance the resilience of distribution grid. Traditionally, such analysis were conducted with reliability metrics alone. However, with increasing complexity of distribution grid and advancements in grid edge resources, evaluating grid resilience is challenging and involves multi-faceted analysis of the impact of weather events on the distribution grid. This presentation provides background, details, and future works in the field of weather-driven resilience for power distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Modeling Streamflow and Sediment Transport Under Current and Future Climates at the West Valley Site - 20231

Performance Assessment models often require inputs representing specific hydrologic processes such as streamflow and sediment flux. This paper details the development of a process-level hydrologic model and its use in a Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) system-level model for the West Valley Site in western New York. For this PPA model, a watershed model was developed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and used to evaluate water and sediment fluxes in nearby streams draining the Site. A particular challenge of probabilistic modeling over long periods of time is scaling parameters appropriately so that outcomes are not grossly over- or underestimated. This challenge is especially important when the spatial and temporal scales of process and system level models differ. In this instance, the SWAT watershed model and GoldSim PPA model have similar spatial scales of stream reaches and sub-catchments within a single watershed (approximately hundreds to tens of thousands of square meters, but the temporal scales differ considerably. The SWAT model calculates streamflow and sediment transport rates at the daily scale, while the PPA model requires long-term average values that are applied over hundreds to thousands of year-long periods. As such, distributions of daily climatic parameters such as average precipitation rate, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity were developed to force a transient SWAT model that captures the dynamic behavior of the watershed in response to daily changes in the weather. Output from the model, which includes stream flow (m{sup 3}/y) and sediment transport rate (Mg/y) is then averaged over a 100-year period as an approximation for the long-term average values which can be applied in GoldSim. A single SWAT model was run 5000 times with varying climatic inputs and deterministic soil, land use, and elevation data, and the range of outputs were compiled into a distribution which can be implemented stochastically into the PPA Model. Additionally, this paper includes a high-level discussion of how changes in future climate affect weather input distributions, and a summary of how those changes in weather affect the outcomes from the SWAT model and the inputs into the PPA model. In this analysis, future climate distributions were developed based on climate research documenting the expected changes to precipitation and temperature in western New York. The 5,000 SWAT simulations were then repeated with these future climate distributions, and the resulting output was implemented into the PPA Model as hydrologic conditions under a future climate. In the current version of the PPA Model, hydrologic parameters change linearly from the 'current climate' conditions to the 'future climate' conditions over a period of 100 years, after which they remain constant. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Wave energy resource characterization employing joint distributions in frequency-direction-time domain

Joint and marginal distributions in the frequency, direction, and time domain are employed to demonstrate their value for wave energy resource characterization when full spectra are available. Insights gained through analysis of these distributions support wave energy converter concept design, operation and maintenance. Spatial trends in the wave energy resource and contributing wave energy systems along the continental shelf of the West Coast of the United States are investigated using the most recent two-dimensional wave spectra measurements at four buoys over an eleven year period (2008 to 2018). Resource hot spots and dominant resolved energy resource bands in the frequency-direction-time domain are delineated. Resource attributes, including frequency and directional spreading, and seasonal variability, are characterized using joint distributions and marginal distributions of wave power spectra. North Pacific westerly swells in the winter season, augmented by Aleutian low-pressure southwesterly swells, are the principal suppliers of the dominant resource and main drivers influencing resource attributes. In conclusion, the modification of these systems southward, especially the North Pacific westerly swells, explains the observed spatial resource trends. The dominant resource wave period shifts two seconds to higher wave periods, thirty degrees in the dominant direction band to a more northward orientation, and forward by one month.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Porosity-Permeability Evolution During Simultaneous Mineral Dissolution and Precipitation

Permeability in reactive porous media evolves in complex ways that are hard to predict. Macroscopic empirical equations are often used to estimate permeability evolution but fail to reflect the impact of pore scale reactions on permeability. This work aims to understand the evolution of permeability in systems where mineral dissolution and precipitation occur simultaneously. Pore network models are used for permeability simulation of a Paluxy sandstone using pore and pore-throat size distributions from the analysis of X-ray CT images. Pore and pore-throat radii are increased and decreased to reflect the effects of dissolution and precipitation reactions. Varying spatial distributions of reactions are simulated and the resulting porosity and permeability values compared with commonly used macroscopic equations. It is observed that when dissolution occurs at the inlet and precipitation at the outlet, porosity increases while permeability decreases. Similar results are also observed in the respective opposite scenario where precipitation occurs at the inlet and dissolution at the outlet. When dissolution and precipitation reactions are randomly distributed throughout the network, porosity increases with little change in permeability that is not captured by the empirical equations. When reactions are controlled by pore and pore-throat sizes, such as dissolution occurring in pores and pore-throats of small size and precipitation in pores and pore-throats of larger size, porosity and permeability decrease. When precipitation occurs in pores and pore-throats of smaller size and dissolution in pores and pore-throats of larger size, porosity and permeability increase and is described relatively well by the Verma-Pruess porosity-permeability equation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Determination of proton PDF uncertainties with Markov chain Monte Carlo

We present an analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The MCMC approach naturally implements Bayes’ theorem and, thus, provides a means to directly sample the underlying probability distribution—in this case, the probability distribution of the PDF parameters. This allows for a straightforward propagation of the resulting uncertainties into any PDF-dependent observable, preserving their simple probabilistic interpretation. In our analysis we include a broad set of deep inelastic scattering data from HERA, BCDMS and NMC experiments along with the Drell-Yan, 𝑊 and 𝑍 boson data from LHC and Tevatron experiments, which combined with theoretical calculations at next-to-next-to-leading order in QCD allow for realistic determination of PDFs. The main focus of this analysis is to explore alternative methods for PDF uncertainty estimation that are more firmly grounded in statistical principles. We show that the flexibility of the Bayes framework, allowing one, e.g., to account for non-Gaussianity or inconsistencies of datasets, is crucial to extract realistic uncertainties when such assumptions are not fulfilled. We also demonstrate that MCMC allows one to determine the Δ⁢𝜒 2 value corresponding to a given confidence level in the sample, which can, in turn, be used as a statistically well-founded tolerance criterion used in the Hessian method, thus addressing one of its main long-standing drawbacks.

Risse, Peter Clemens [Universität Münster (Germany↗

Local and long-range atomic/magnetic structure of non-stoichiometric spinel iron oxide nanocrystallites

Spinel iron oxide nanoparticles of different mean sizes in the range 10–25 nm have been prepared by surfactant-free up-scalable near- and super-critical hydrothermal synthesis pathways and characterized using a wide range of advanced structural characterization methods to provide a highly detailed structural description. The atomic structure is examined by combined Rietveld analysis of synchrotron powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) data and time-of-flight neutron powder-diffraction (NPD) data. The local atomic ordering is further analysed by pair distribution function (PDF) analysis of both X-ray and neutron total-scattering data. It is observed that a non-stoichiometric structural model based on a tetragonal γ-Fe 2 O 3 phase with vacancy ordering in the structure (space group P 4 3 2 1 2) yields the best fit to the PXRD and total-scattering data. Detailed peak-profile analysis reveals a shorter coherence length for the superstructure, which may be attributed to the vacancy-ordered domains being smaller than the size of the crystallites and/or the presence of anti-phase boundaries, faulting or other disorder effects. The intermediate stoichiometry between that of γ-Fe 2 O 3 and Fe 3 O 4 is confirmed by refinement of the Fe/O stoichiometry in the scattering data and quantitative analysis of Mössbauer spectra. The structural characterization is complemented by nano/micro-structural analysis using transmission electron microscopy (TEM), elemental mapping using scanning TEM, energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and the measurement of macroscopic magnetic properties using vibrating sample magnetometry. Notably, no evidence is found of a Fe 3 O 4 /γ-Fe 2 O 3 core-shell nanostructure being present, which had previously been suggested for non-stoichiometric spinel iron oxide nanoparticles. Finally, the study is concluded using the magnetic PDF (mPDF) method to model the neutron total-scattering data and determine the local magnetic ordering and magnetic domain sizes in the iron oxide nanoparticles. The mPDF data analysis reveals ferrimagnetic collinear ordering of the spins in the structure and the magnetic domain sizes to be ∼60–70% of the total nanoparticle sizes. The present study is the first in which mPDF analysis has been applied to magnetic nanoparticles, establishing a successful precedent for future studies of magnetic nanoparticles using this technique.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Evaluating Acoustic vs. AI-Based Satellite Leak Detection in Aging US Water Infrastructure: A Cost and Energy Savings Analysis

The aging water distribution system in the United States, constructed mainly during the 1970s with some pipes dating back 125 years, is experiencing significant deterioration leading to substantial water losses. Along with the potential for water loss savings, improvements in the distribution system by using leak detection technologies can create net energy and cost savings. In this work, a new framework has been presented to calculate the economic level of leakage within water supply and distribution systems for two primary leak detection technologies (acoustic vs. satellite). In this work, a new framework is presented to calculate the economic level of leakage (ELL) within water supply and distribution systems to support smart infrastructure in smart cities. A case study focused using water audit data from Atlanta, Georgia, compared the costs of two leak mitigation technologies: conventional acoustic leak detection and artificial intelligence–assisted satellite leak detection technology, which employs machine learning algorithms to identify potential leak signatures from satellite imagery. The ELL results revealed that conducting one survey would be optimum for an acoustic survey, whereas the method suggested that it would be expensive to utilize satellite-based leak detection technology. However, results for cumulative financial analysis over a 3-year period for both technologies revealed both to be economically favorable with conventional acoustic leak detection technology generating higher net economic benefits of USD 2.4 million, surpassing satellite detection by 50%. A broader national analysis was conducted to explore the potential benefits of US water infrastructure mirroring the exemplary conditions of Germany and The Netherlands. Achieving similar infrastructure leakage index (ILI) values could result in annual cost savings of $\$4$–$\$4.8$ billion and primary energy savings of 1.6–1.9 TWh. These results demonstrate the value of combining economic modeling with advanced leak detection technologies to support sustainable, cost-efficient water infrastructure strategies in urban environments, contributing to more sustainable smart living outcomes.

acoustic leak detection↗

Deformation behavior of CP-titanium under strain path changes: Experiment and crystal plasticity modeling

The deformation behavior of commercially pure rolled titanium subjected to strain path changes is studied using experiments and a crystal plasticity model. Four different loading combinations are performed at room temperature to study the activation of slip, twinning, de-twinning and double-twinning in hexagonal closed packed titanium. The strain paths considered are: rolling direction compression (RDC) followed by normal direction compression (NDC), RDC followed by transverse direction compression (TDC), NDC followed by RDC, and NDC followed by TDC. An EBSD-based analysis of the distribution of boundary misorientation angles before and after reload was developed to analyze the evolution of {$10\bar{1}2$} tensile and {$11\bar{2}2$} compression twins. This analysis supports the model results concerning the treatment of twin reorientation. A de-twinning and double-twinning model accounting for back stress effects, an important feature of strain path changes, is implemented within the framework of the visco-plastic self-consistent (VPSC) model along with a dislocation density (DD) based hardening scheme. In the model, plasticity is accommodated by prismatic $\langle$a$\rangle$, basal $\langle$a$\rangle$ and pyramidal $\langle$c+a$\rangle$ slip modes, and {$10\bar{1}2$} tensile and {$11\bar{2}2$} compression twinning modes. The VPSC model predicts the evolution of twinning, de-twinning and double-twinning processes for both tensile and compression twinning modes under strain path change. The model predicts macroscopic stress-strain response, texture evolution, and twin volume fraction that are in agreement with experimental observations. The evolution of texture is investigated in detail by separately analyzing the twinned domains, rather than the evolution of the global texture.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Towards Realistic and High Fidelity Models for Nuclear Reactor Power Synthesis Simulation with Self-Powered Neutron Detectors

As presented in this report, a weighting function–based inferencing method is being applied to synthesize the power distribution in next-generation and university research reactors based on simulated self power neutron detector (SPND) responses. The overall goal is to assess the impacts of sensor uncertainty and true power distribution perturbations on the error in the synthesized power distribution. Regarding sensor uncertainty, the NuScale Small Modular Reactor (SMR) and the Westinghouse AP1000 serve as testbeds for analyzing the impact of varying the sensor uncertainty, as well as varying the number of sensors per sensor string in the reactor core. The reactor models are informed by Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) neutron flux tallies. For the NuScale SMR and Westinghouse AP1000, the SPND response functions (i.e., the response of the SPNDs to individual segments of fuel) were determined homogeneously. Regarding an analysis of power distribution perturbation detection, the Texas A&M Testing, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics Reactor (TAMU TRIGA) reactor was used as a demonstration case with one particular arrangement of SPNDs; the response functions for this reactor model were determined heterogeneously, making this a uniquely high-fidelity demonstration of perturbation detection. Finally, SPND models generated in the Geometry and Tracking 4 (Geant4) code have been generated and tested for comparison with traditionally implemented analytical SPND models, with the intent for Geant4 integration with the full methodological framework. SPND current outputs as a function of distance from some fuel assembly segment in the NuScale SMR are compared with the analytically determined currents. Results from the sensor uncertainty simulations for the NuScale SMR and AP1000 indicate that the average error in the inferred power distribution on the fuel assembly segment level is reasonably low, being slightly less than the random uncertainty applied to all respective SPNDs in both cores. For example, if all SPNDs in the core have a random uncertainty of 5%, then the corresponding fuel assembly segment level error (i.e. difference between the true and inferred local power) is ~2–3%. However, the maximum error in the inferred power distribution on the fuel assembly segment level can be considerably high (>15%) when SPND random uncertainties start to exceed ~3%. In general, the average and maximum errors in the inferred power distribution were slightly higher in the AP1000 as opposed to the NuScale SMR for the sensor string configurations considered herein. Another result determined from analysis of the sensor uncertainty simulations was that increasing the number of SPNDs per string does not clearly reduce inferred power distribution error and can in fact make the error large in some cases; however, this assessment may skewed due to imposed iteration limits. Results from the perturbation detection demonstration using the high-fidelity TAMU TRIGA model indicate that, given the arrangement of 17 SPND strings and 4 SPNDs per string considered herein, there is a clear, provable ability to infer a localized Gaussian-type peak perturbation in the 3D power distribution. Such a perturbation was detected with an average fuel assembly segment level error of 0.19%, and the general visualization of the detected perturbation clearly indicates that the magnitude and shape were appropriately resolved. Finally, the electrical current output generated by the Geant4 modeled SPND indicates significant magnitude differences than the analytically modeled SPND, demonstrating the need for accurate SPND models which account for finite sensor geometry effects to inform the power synthesis work described herein.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Integrated Models for Electrical Distribution Network Planning and District-Scale Building Energy Use

The increase of greenhouse emissions caused by a rise in global energy consumption is pushing the scientific community to develop tools that address key environmental, techno-economic and social issues. One specific area of focus is to create tools that enable the design of high-performance energy districts, including grid-interactive efficient buildings and electrical distribution infrastructure. This paper outlines the approach of integrating a synthetic distribution network tool (RNM-US) with URBANopt™, a modular and customizable software development kit for thermal and electrical modelling of buildings and energy systems at a district scale. First, we describe the algorithms implemented to integrate RNM-US with URBANopt to automatically generate the distribution network for the district considered. Following, we present a case study for the potential uses of the RNM-US integrations with URBANopt, highlighting the capabilities for economic and technical analysis of the distribution network built in relation to the electricity needs of the modelled buildings.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Virtual prototyping of liquid metal blanket performance in fusion pilot plant

Liquid metal blanket is a dominant design option for the next step fusion devices responsible for harvesting energy from fusion reaction, and simultaneously producing fuel for the same reaction through tritium breeding. Liquid metal blankets introduce additional complexity to the design due to fluid motion, fluid structure interaction, and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) effects arising from the motion of the conducting fluid through the magnetic field. They are also directly affected by the plasma heat flux and neutronic fluence. PPPL is currently developing a virtual prototyping system for numerical analysis of the liquid metal blankets for future fusion devices. The system has a customized 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code in its core, allowing MHD flow and conjugate heat transfer analysis in blankets fluids and solids. The code was successfully used before for dual coolant blanket analysis [A. Khodak et al., Fusion Eng. and Des. 137 (2018)]. Recently the same code was modified to allow verified simulation of MHD flows at high Hartmann numbers of several thousand typical for blanket applications. CFD code receives volumetric heat source distribution from the neutronic analysis based on MCNP code. In addition, direct tritium breeding simulation will be performed allowing optimization of the blanket performance. 2D axisymmetric version of neutronics code will be used for rapid optimization, with 3D version employed for detailed analysis. The surface heat distribution on the plasma facing wall will be defined by the software HEAT allowing 3D modeling of the heat flux based on the magnetic field distribution including gyro-orbit effects. Results of thermal analysis are imported into structural analysis code also included in the system. Finally, direct import of CAD geometry will be used for analyzing all components and as a result design option can be efficiently optimized.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Mechanistic insight of KBiQ 2 (Q = S, Se) using panoramic synthesis towards synthesis-by-design

Solid-state synthesis has historically focused on reactants and end products; however, knowledge of reaction pathways, intermediate phases and their formation may provide mechanistic insight of solid-state reactions. With an increased understanding of reaction progressions, design principles can be deduced, affording more predictive power in materials synthesis. In pursuit of this goal, in situ powder X-ray diffraction is employed to observe crystalline phase evolution over the course of the reaction, thereby constructing a “panoramic” view of the reaction from beginning to end. We conducted in situ diffraction studies in the K–Bi–Q (Q = S, Se) system to understand the formation of phases occurring in this system in the course of their reactions. Powder mixtures of K 2 Q to Bi 2 Q 3 in 1:1 and 1.5:1 ratios were heated to 800 °C or 650 °C, while simultaneously collecting diffraction data. Three new phases, K 3 BiS 3 , β-KBiS 2 , and β-KBiSe 2 , were discovered. Panoramic synthesis showed that K 3 BiQ 3 serves an important mechanistic role as a structural intermediate in both chalcogen systems (Q = S, Se) in the path to form the KBiQ 2 structure. Thermal analysis and calculations at the density functional theory (DFT) level show that the cation-ordered β-KBiQ 2 polymorphs are the thermodynamically stable phase in this compositional space, while Pair Distribution Function (PDF) analysis shows that all α-KBiQ 2 structures have local disorder due to stereochemically active lone pair expression of the bismuth atoms. The formation of the β-KBiQ 2 structures, both of which crystallize in the α-NaFeO 2 structure type, show a boundary where the structure can be disordered or ordered with regards to the alkali metal and bismuth. A cation radius tolerance for six-coordinate cation site sharing of ($\frac{r^+}{r^{3+}}$) ~ 1.3 is proposed. The mechanistic insight the panoramic synthesis technique provides in the K–Bi–Q system is progress towards the overarching goal of synthesis-by-design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Development of a broadband hard x-ray radiography platform for pulsed-power experiments

In this article, we develop and demonstrate a broadband hard x-ray radiography platform at the Zebra Pulsed Power Laboratory that integrates point-projection radiography, bremsstrahlung measurements, and hard x-ray pinhole imaging, designed to diagnose current-driven, cylindrically compressed matter. Initial laser-pulsed-power coupled experiments revealed that intense background radiation generated during 1 MA Zebra current shots overwhelmed laser-produced hard x-rays, obscuring radiographic images. Using combined spectral and spatial diagnostics, we identify energetic electrons accelerated by return currents as the dominant source of background hard x-rays, with electron energies inferred to be 3–4 MeV based on Monte Carlo simulations, and demonstrate mitigation through modifications to the radiation shielding and return-current configuration. The diagnostic platform was validated using a wire-pinch hard x-ray source, allowing radiographs of static 1-mm-diameter aluminum wires to be obtained while simultaneously measuring x-ray source spectra and spatial emission distributions within a single shot. Measured wire transmission profiles were quantitatively reconstructed using radiation transport simulations that incorporate an experimentally inferred two-temperature exponential x-ray spectrum from bremsstrahlung signal analysis and spatially distributed emission sources identified by pinhole imaging. Agreement between measured and simulated transmission profiles demonstrates the validity of the radiographic and x-ray source characterization approach, establishing this diagnostic platform as a promising tool for diagnosing magnetically driven, high-density plasmas relevant to warm dense matter and inertial fusion energy research.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗